Why Is Billy Beane Buying Relief Pitchers?

Over the last decade or so, the A’s have traditionally been out in front of the undervalued asset markets. They were buying on base percentage before it was cool, then transitioned to putting good defensive teams on the field once the market’s focus shifted too heavily to hitting. Oakland was also one of the first teams to do the Rent-a-Type-A strategy, making moves for guys with one year left on their contract in order to collect the draft picks when they walked. Given the moves that Billy Beane and company have made over the last few days, should we assume that relief pitchers are the new market inefficiency?

Last week, the A’s gave Grant Balfour a two year, $8 million contract, and because he was a Type A free agent, the A’s surrendered their second round pick in order to sign him. Yesterday, they agreed to terms with Brian Fuentes on a two year, $10 million contract, and the combination of moves gives the team a pair of new setup men to bridge the gap to closer Andrew Bailey. Given that they have also signed Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy earlier this winter, stating that one or both could end up in the bullpen if they don’t make rotation, and the A’s have brought in a hefty dose of relief pitching this winter despite the fact that they already had a strong, deep bullpen.

Returning to the team from last year’s group are Bailey, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow, Michael Wuertz, and Jerry Blevins. Those five already offered the A’s a strong bullpen, including a quality closer and two good setup men from each side. In fact, it’s hard to distinguish between Breslow and Fuentes, as they essentially have the same skillset – extreme flyball lefties with mediocre command who miss enough bats to strand a bunch of runners. Fuentes duplicates what they already had, and Balfour is pretty similar to Wuertz as well.

So, what’s the deal? Why are the A’s spending so much time and energy on their bullpen?

It looks like they didn’t have much of a choice. They began the winter by winning the bidding for Hisashi Iwakuma, but couldn’t agree to terms with the Japanese hurler. They then made another run at Adrian Beltre, but once again he showed little interest in joining the A’s. They shifted their attention to Lance Berkman, but found out that he really didn’t want to DH, and lost out on bringing him to the Bay Area as well. All three of these players would have required a fairly significant financial commitment, but the A’s had money to spend and a desire to improve their roster.

Being spurned by their top choices simply forced the A’s to move on to Plan D, so they turned their attention to Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui, cheaper alternatives who they could actually acquire. Having gone cheaper on the position player side of things left the A’s with money to burn as the winter began to wind down, and the only area with much talent remaining on the market was relief pitching.

To me, this looks much more like the A’s are determined to spend their allowance to upgrade the roster this winter than a premeditated shift towards relievers as an undervalued asset. If the A’s had their druthers, they’d have spent their cash on Iwakuma and Beltre and likely headed into 2011 with a similar bullpen to what they had last year. They couldn’t get Plan A to come together, and even Plans B and C fell apart, so they moved down the list and eventually decided to spend money on bullpen depth. I’d guess this isn’t how Billy drew up the off-season when it started. Stocking up on middle relievers is likely to be one roster management trend that doesn’t catch on everywhere else, I’d imagine.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

86 Comments
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JohnnyK
11 years ago

Speculation, but maybe Beane is simply gathering tradeable assets? Relievers are (anecdotally) in pretty high demand around the trade deadline.

camisadelgolf
11 years ago
Reply to  JohnnyK

I think you’re on to something. If the A’s are competitive, they can keep the relievers. If not, they can be traded to help them compete later on. Sure, you could do this with non-relievers, but it tends to be a lot more expensive. And when you trade away a reliever, it generally turns out that you didn’t lose much, so you’re often in better position to take a chance on prospects.

siggian
11 years ago
Reply to  camisadelgolf

Ditto. Plus extreme flyball pitchers are going to look even better in an A’s uniform, which would inflate their value in a trade situation or free agency in a couple of year’s time.

Aki_Izayoi
11 years ago
Reply to  camisadelgolf

I don’t know if the strategy of buying extreme flyball pitchers and then flipping them will work for the A’s. I thought the sabermetrics revolution made teams smart enough not to fall for that trick; teams would at least look for strong peripherals such as strikeout rate, walk rate, and K to BB ratio. Of course, looking at HR/9 wouldn’t tell us much since the A’s play in a park that depresses home runs.

John
11 years ago
Reply to  camisadelgolf

Some teams still don’t follow Sabermetrics much. I can’t recall the name of the team, but I heard a year ago there was at least one team who laughed at them.

Chris
11 years ago
Reply to  camisadelgolf

Aki, not all teams are in on the movement yet, and when you’re desperate to add to your bullpen for a stretch run you’ll look for any good relievers you can get. I mean, the Yankees signed a FB pitcher in Soriano for big money.

Bryzmember
11 years ago
Reply to  camisadelgolf

@ John: I doubt the Twins “laughed” at sabermetrics, but they do appear to be a team that doesn’t embrace them. Good example was when Parker Hageman of Over the Baggy did an interview with Twins assistant GM Rob Antony, and Antony either didn’t know some of the stats or admitted that the Twins don’t focus on them very much. http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2010/03/twins-and-statistical-analysis.html

The interview seems to paint Antony and the Twins organization in a poor light, but I know that wasn’t Parker’s intent.

Ezra
11 years ago
Reply to  camisadelgolf

The market has been somewhat defined by the Reynolds trade, and the Maybin trade.

DrBGiantsfan
11 years ago
Reply to  camisadelgolf

Bryz,

The Twins have been a pretty successful team in a small market, no?

DavidCEisen
11 years ago
Reply to  camisadelgolf

Bryz, that interview looks incredibly reasonable. Basically he says that the Twins value their scouts opinions over pure statistical analysis, which should not be surprising since scouts are specifically hired to evaluate players based upon metrics that teams develop.

Joe
11 years ago
Reply to  JohnnyK

This holds water for Fuentes but they surrendered a pick to get Balfour. Sure the return for Balfour could be higher than the worth of their second round pick but it would be a marginal upgrade and you’re not quite getting two in the bush.

Brad Johnson
11 years ago
Reply to  Joe

But it doesn’t have to be Balfour or Fuentes who go. There’s 5 other talented relievers in that unit capable of providing high leverage relief. The A’s may seek to maximize their return by dealing Bailey or Wuertz at the deadline for example.

It would seem that these moves put the A’s in a good position to mimic the Padres.

Robert Thacher
11 years ago
Reply to  Joe

Balfour is signed for two years at a reasonable contract.He provides immediate help to this and next year’s teams.It would seem counter productive to try and find ways to get other DP”s or prospects.Why not let him be the bounty, here and now.He and Fuentes will provide the quality and depth to the A’s,who should make a run at it.