Why Would A Pitcher Pitch Against The Shift?
On April 10 in an outing against the Toronto Blue Jays, Dallas Keuchel was pitching Jose Bautista outside in the fourth inning.
That much isn’t really surprising, because since September of 2009, Bautista has done the bulk of his damage by pulling the ball. What was curious to me, however, was that Keuchel was pitching Bautista well outside despite the fact that the Astros defense was employing a heavy shift. It seemed counterintuitive, since I had assumed – though I hadn’t previously given it much thought – that a pitcher would be best served by pitching into a shift and giving the batter something he’s more likely to pull.
As it turns out, Keuchel was probably using the proper approach.
For some background, here is Bautista’s spray chart since September of 2009, courtesy of Bill Petti’s awesome spray chart tool.
Two things are clear here: avoiding Bautista pulling the ball is ideal, and he hits a great number of groundballs to the left side of the infield. Considered separately, pitching outside and shifting both make sense, though, again, my assumption was that a team would employ one or the other.
The Astros employed both.
In this particular example, the result didn’t really matter – Keuchel missed outside three times and then didn’t come anywhere close to the strike zone with a 3-0 pitch, walking Bautista on four straight. But the process here is the curiosity, not the result.
As mentioned, the Astros were probably smart to employ a shift and then pitch “out” of the shift by dealing away. Last year, Bautista took 27 outside pitches to the opposite field while pulling 64 outside pitches. More importantly, he hit groundballs to the right side on just six occasions compared to 49 pulled groundballs.
In other words, even with an outside pitch that should theoretically be easier to take the other way, Bautista is pretty unlikely to hit a groundball to the right side, meaning the cost of shifting isn’t very high at all. Sometimes pull-push percentages can confuse the fact that teams don’t care about pull rates on the whole when shifting, they only care about where groundballs are hit (since, obviously, flyballs and even linedrives are less likely to land where shifted players are or are not).
This got me curious as to whether this was Bautista-specific or a league-wide phenomenon. Well, thank godby for Daren W and Baseball Savant, as the PITCHf/x search there allowed me to dive into league-wide rates from the 2013 season.
To establish a baseline of how often pitches get pulled, shot up the gut or taken the other way with pitches in certain locations. That is, I first wanted to see if my initial logic that an outside pitch is easier to take the other way was true or simply something that made sense in my head but didn’t happen in practice. As it turns out, outside pitches are taken the other way far more often than pitches down the middle or pitches on the inner part of the plate, which a batter would have to inside-out to hit to the opposite field. This also presents itself in each hand-versus-hand iteration.
| INSIDE | Pull | Pull % | Middle | Middle % | Oppo | Oppo % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHH v LHP | 5013 | 59.66% | 2113 | 25.15% | 1276 | 15.19% | 8402 |
| RHH v RHP | 9261 | 58.72% | 4012 | 25.44% | 2498 | 15.84% | 15771 |
| LHH v LHP | 1666 | 56.02% | 754 | 25.35% | 554 | 18.63% | 2974 |
| LHH v RHP | 5885 | 60.66% | 2290 | 23.60% | 1527 | 15.74% | 9702 |
| TOTAL | 21825 | 59.23% | 9169 | 24.88% | 5855 | 15.89% | 36849 |
| OUTSIDE | Pull | Pull % | Middle | Middle % | Oppo | Oppo % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHH v LHP | 4035 | 38.87% | 3441 | 33.14% | 2906 | 27.99% | 10382 |
| RHH v RHP | 6396 | 39.53% | 5307 | 32.80% | 4479 | 27.68% | 16182 |
| LHH v LHP | 1770 | 39.01% | 1457 | 32.11% | 1310 | 28.87% | 4537 |
| LHH v RHP | 9218 | 39.44% | 7435 | 31.81% | 6719 | 28.75% | 23372 |
| TOTAL | 21419 | 39.32% | 17640 | 32.38% | 15414 | 28.30% | 54473 |
| MIDDLE | Pull | Pull % | Middle | Middle % | Oppo | Oppo % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHH v LHP | 3291 | 49.95% | 1906 | 28.93% | 1391 | 21.11% | 6588 |
| RHH v RHP | 8973 | 57.54% | 3800 | 24.37% | 2821 | 18.09% | 15594 |
| LHH v LHP | 1305 | 46.23% | 885 | 31.35% | 633 | 22.42% | 2823 |
| LHH v RHP | 5599 | 50.35% | 3171 | 28.52% | 2350 | 21.13% | 11120 |
| TOTAL | 19168 | 53.06% | 9762 | 27.02% | 7195 | 19.92% | 36125 |
To tidy it up, here are the aggregate results by pitch location, regardless of hitter-pitcher match-up.
| Pull % | Middle % | Oppo % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INSIDE | 59.23% | 24.88% | 15.89% |
| OUTSIDE | 39.32% | 32.38% | 28.30% |
| MIDDLE | 53.06% | 28.70% | 22.33% |
What this tells us is just what I assumed earlier – that it would make sense to pitch a batter inside if you’re going to shift, given the overall pull rates league-wide. But again, it’s only really groundballs we’re concerned with when it comes to shifting the infield.
So here are the numbers again, focusing on just groundballs.
| INSIDE | Pull % | GB PULL % | GB Oppo % |
|---|---|---|---|
| RHH v LHP | 59.66% | 31.12% | 1.81% |
| RHH v RHP | 58.72% | 34.38% | 2.57% |
| LHH v LHP | 56.02% | 35.27% | 4.44% |
| LHH v RHP | 60.66% | 27.91% | 2.70% |
| All Inside | 59.23% | 32.01% | 2.58% |
| OUTSIDE | Pull % | GB PULL % | GB Oppo % |
|---|---|---|---|
| RHH v LHP | 38.87% | 28.35% | 5.74% |
| RHH v RHP | 39.53% | 29.76% | 6.01% |
| LHH v LHP | 39.01% | 28.01% | 6.81% |
| LHH v RHP | 39.44% | 27.64% | 6.70% |
| All Outside | 39.32% | 28.45% | 6.45% |
| MIDDLE | Pull % | GB PULL % | GB Oppo % |
|---|---|---|---|
| RHH v LHP | 49.95% | 28.22% | 2.57% |
| RHH v RHP | 57.54% | 23.87% | 2.63% |
| LHH v LHP | 46.23% | 27.67% | 4.64% |
| LHH v RHP | 50.35% | 26.76% | 2.65% |
| All Middle | 53.06% | 26.95% | 3.06% |
Once again, those are mostly to show that the trends here hold for all hitter-pitcher possibilities. To put it in a more digestible form, here are the aggregates for each pitch location, comparing groundball pull and opposite rates (as a percentage of all balls in play, plus home runs) compared to the overall rates.
| Location | Pull % | GB PULL % | Oppo % | GB Oppo % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSIDE | 59.23% | 32.01% | 15.89% | 2.58% |
| OUTSIDE | 39.32% | 28.45% | 16.10% | 6.45% |
| MIDDLE | 53.06% | 26.95% | 16.42% | 3.06% |
The important cell is the middle row, in the right-most column. Even given outside pitches, batters only hit groundballs to the opposite side 6.45 percent of the time last season.
It seems that on average, and not just with Bautista, pitching outside with a pull-shift on isn’t all that risky. That won’t hold for all players, of course, and 6.45 percent isn’t zero, but if you see a pitcher who appears to be pitching “out” of the shift, that’s why.
Blake Murphy is a freelance sportswriter based out of Toronto. Formerly of the Score, he's the managing editor at Raptors Republic and frequently pops up at Sportsnet, Vice, and around here. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.
Because you play to win the game.
With this information I would almost solely pitch outside with a shift on against big power pull hitters, adjusting of course on an individual basis for certain hitters. The pull% on outside pitches was nearly the same as for inside, and generally I would believe that outside pitches result in weaker contact than inside. Meaning you would get only slightly less grounders hit into the shift, while also increasing the chance that he hits a weak flyball, and only marginally be increasing the likelihood that he beats the shift with a grounder the other way. I would say the benefit outweighs the risk here.
In a vacuum, this works. The concern here is how quickly those hitters adjust to that and either start reaching out over the plate for those pitches and pull them into the power alleys or over the fence or consciously hit those balls the other way.
Our same friend, Jose Bautista, can still absolutely crush pitches on the outer half of the plate into the LF bleachers, noting this example from last season against Addison Reed.
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/06/jose-bautista-blasts-game-tying-homer-with-two-outs-in-the-ninth/
It was up, but it was very much on the outer half of the plate and running away from him, and he destroyed it.
You’re both right and wrong. Batters can and should adjust to the shift and being pitched outside by hitting the ball the other way, but they don’t.
One case doesn’t disprove this.
I think the point is you can’t just pitch to a hitter – especially one as good as Bautista – the same way every time, or he’ll destroy you.
it’s very early of course, but twice this year, I have seen Bautista reach out and poke a ball into right, driving in a run each time.
Also, as noted in another post on another blog, Bautista has reduced his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone by a huge amount, dropping to a amazing 23% (IIRC). That might help explain his league leading 23 walks.
I think buatists is learning how to adjust to the shift and to the pitching patterns. If there’s no one on base, he’s still going to take a shot at ripping a double or HR, but if he can drive in some runs, he’ll look at going the other way. Even Ted Williams admitted after he retired that he would have done better to hit against the shift, rather than trying to hit through it. That’s just smart baseball by the hitter.
The issue with your glib strategy is that once it is known that your team’s shift = pound the batter outside, hitters only have to move a few inches closer to the plate.
Nice piece. This insight can be confirmed by what pitchers do to Ryan Howard, who was shifted on early and often in his career. Pitchers constantly go away from him, and he almost ever hits the ball on the ground the other way.
I would say, however, that it would be more interesting to see what hitters did with fastballs away. Almost anything offspeed is going to be pulled anyway, so it kind of skews the data. Hitters are not going to start taking curveballs and changes the opposite way, but I’d be curious to see what they do with fastballs the opposite way. That still might not be a good strategy if your team is employing the shift.
How woudn’t they to off-peed pitches? Except Jeff Francour.
thank you for doing the research i was too lazy to do.
A’s did the exact same thing to Ibanez knowing that if he was going to go oppo it would be in the air.
Very cool to see the numbers on something I’ve wondered was true and seemed to be. Like you said though it depends on the hitter. Some guys crowd the plate so they can reasonably pull an outside pitch. Others don’t crowd the plate and still try to pull the outside pitch. The best course of action for the hitter of course, is to take the outside pitch the other way. But almost by definition pull hitters struggle to do so.
I would imagine most hitters being shifted against would be susceptible to pulling to many grounders on outside pitches. Matt Adams sticks out as a guy it doesn’t seem you can do that with.
It will be an interesting cat and mouse game between shifting defenses and Adams this year. To start the year he’s been shifted against a lot and has responded with a lot of opposite field hits, some of which probably wouldn’t have been hits had the shift not been on. Some teams will stop shifting, some will respond by pitching on the inside half more. However, that will likely lead to a lot more home runs. Got to hand it Adams, baseball is a game of adjustments and he’s making them.
Why don’t hitters (particularly lefties) break a shift with a bunt down the 3rd baseline? It’s a free single, and it forces the IF to play straight-up next time, so it’s a win-win for the batter. However, I rarely see it happen. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
Fair question.
It’s been discussed at length ever since shifting became commonplace.
Short answer: Bunting to a specific location for a hit isn’t as easy as it looks. It’s a skill that takes constant practice, and you simply don’t see many pull-power lefty hitters working on it with the reps needed to maintain the skill.
Someone with a better memory and interwebs search skills want to find the link to the bunting competition the Cubs had last year? The one where the former college baseball player turned Cubs Video guy was beating the pants off the actual MLB hitters for awhile?
Not sure how many here played baseball beyond little league or high school, but bunting a quality pitch is NOT as easy as the pros make it look. The late movement on a pro pitch accounts for many of the foul balls and pop ups we see when hitters try to bunt. It’s hard to simulate in batting practice.
Short answer: Right now, most people who would bunt are bad at it. Personally, I predict a rise in hitters who have shift-able tendancies to start getting coached bunting at a younger age and get good at it in the future.
Because that would be surrendering. And that is something a professional athelete cannot ever do.
They would if surrendering got them on first base…
The problem with your question is assuming that any partcular pitcher is paying attention to what the defense is doing.
Or that he even has any ability to or any idea how to ‘pitch with’ the shift.
Pitchers is dumb.
Almost as dumb as hitters.
But not as dumb as managers.
When the batter starts looking outside and crowding the plate, the pitcher burns one high and tight to get them off. These old adages DO have some value in strategy.
The reason more groundballs are hit when pitched outside by straight pull hitters is because it’s incredibly difficult to pull a ball in the air that is on the outside corner. According to this data, Bautista feeds off of pitchers that are daring (or dumb) enough to give him an inside fastball. If he faces a pitcher that’s good enough to go outside, he’ll probably stay with his approach at the plate, take what he can get from that guy, and then move on to the next day. Or at least, that’s how I interpret it.
Regardless of my opinion, the lesson here: don’t give Bautista anything middle or inside on the plate.
Heat inside and off-speed away. That’s pitching 101. Bautista has great plate coverage and he pretty much has the same swing for every pitch…and why shouldn’t he? When going inside on a hitter like Bautista, you go way in.
His approach does leave him vulnerable to outside pitches that tail away. If the pitcher misses over the plate: BOOM. Put some runs on the board. He is a great hitter.
what seems to be missing here: what does Bautista do with inside pitches vs outside pitches? That is, which is he more likely to hit well? Inside or outside? You always pitch pull hitters outside because they still try to pull the ball, making HR’s less likely.
The underappreciated part of this equation is the extent to which swinging slightly under or slightly over the center of the ball causes the ball to pull (under) or go opposite field (over). Of course, being slightly over the center of the ball also causes the ball to have a downwards trajectory (pulled ground ball) while being slightly under causes an upwards trajectory (lazy fly ball to the opposite field).
This stems from the fact that the bat is generally held at something like a 30-60 degree angle when it makes contact with the ball, and the fact that the bat is pretty spherical. The Hardball Times did a good job explaining this..