World Series Preview

And now the real fun begins – with the preliminary contests out of the way, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia are set to kick off the final matchup of the season, the 2008 World Series. Before this fall classic gets underway, let’s take a look at some of the keys to the series that won’t get covered by the big networks.

The Phillies whack lefties around pretty good.

If you just think of the Phillies as Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and a bunch of role players, this might seem counter-intuitive. However, it’s true – the Phillies are a significantly better offensive team against LHPs than RHPs. For the year, they hit .255/.330/.426 against right-handed pitching, compared to .257/.337/.464 against left-handed pitching. Part of this is because Utley hits southpaws pretty well, but they also have some good right-handed bats in Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth.

Because of that, it’s unlikely that last night’s hero, David Price, will be pitching in the 9th inning of too many World Series games. I think we’ll see a good bit of him going after Utley and Howard in late game situations, but Joe Maddon is smart enough to realize that Price isn’t the best pick against the good RH bats that Philly can run out there.

Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer both have reverse platoon splits.

Because both of Philadelphia’s left-handed starters have exceptional change-ups, they’re both tremendous against right-handed hitters. The change-up is the pitch that best neutralizes opposite-handed hitters, and Hamels and Moyer both feature change-ups as their out pitch. Over Moyer’s extensive career, LHBs have a 30 point OPS advantage. In Hamels much more brief time in the majors, LHBs have a 70 point OPS advantage.

This won’t matter as much in setting the line-ups (there’s almost no way Joe Maddon goes with the left-handed bats of Cliff Floyd or Gabe Gross, who have been strictly platooned for a good reason), but it does change the landscape of what we expect from the three key LH bats in the Rays line-up. Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, and Akinori Iwamura don’t hit lefties all that well, which is a pretty big reason why the Rays have struggled somewhat against southpaws this year. However, Hamels and Moyer aren’t your typical lefties, and there’s a decent chance that those three could outperform expectations when facing the two change-up masters.

Watch out for Fernando Perez.

Call it a hunch, but I think we might see a bit more of the speedy outfielder from the Rays who hasn’t been used as much more than a pinch-runner to date. With Gross struggling in the playoffs, don’t be surprised if the switch hitting Perez makes a start or two in order to maximize the defensive value in the outfield. The kid can really cover some ground, and he’s got a bit more pop in his bat than you might expect from looking at him.