Yankees Acquire Aaron Hicks, A Potential Bargain
While it’s not going down as any kind of blockbuster, the Twins and Yankees struck a deal today, with Minnesota sending outfielder Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher JR Murphy.
Hicks, a former highly though of prospect, finally showed some signs of life in 2015, putting up +1.5 WAR in 97 games after getting called back up from Triple-A. The improvement primarily came from his ability to avoid strikeouts, which looks to be potentially caused by a new-found willingness to swing at pitches in the strike zone; his in-zone swing rate jumped to 66%, significantly higher than it had been in his first two runs through the big leagues. With enough power to not just be a slap hitter and a good enough eye to draw some walks, Hicks profiles as something like a league average hitter going forward; Steamer projects him for a 99 wRC+ in 2016.
With some baserunning value and decent enough defense in center field, that makes Hicks a potentially interesting piece. In fact, if you look at the Steamer600 projections, where playing time is equalized for all players, you’ll note that Hicks looks like the kind of outfielder the Yankees have shown affinity for.
| Name | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA | wRC+ | BsR | Fld | Off | Def | WAR |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 600 | 0.264 | 0.323 | 0.396 | 0.719 | 0.313 | 96 | 2.9 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Aaron Hicks | 600 | 0.256 | 0.331 | 0.395 | 0.726 | 0.318 | 99 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 0.3 | -0.6 | 2.1 |
| Brett Gardner | 600 | 0.256 | 0.331 | 0.395 | 0.727 | 0.319 | 100 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | -2.8 | 2.0 |
The Yankees are rumored to be talking to teams about Brett Gardner, and they’d almost certainly move Jacoby Ellsbury if someone wanted to pick up a good chunk of the rest of his contract, so by acquiring Hicks, the team has basically set themselves up to have an internal replacement in case they move one of their veteran outfielders. And, of course, Hicks is significantly younger and cheaper, so the fact that they might not lose much in expected production from shipping out either Gardner or Ellsbury sets them up to come out well ahead of things if they can get a good return for the name-brand version of this player-type. Hicks isn’t likely to turn into a star, but he looks like he could be a solid average everyday player, and as a league minimum guy with five four years left of team control, this is a nice asset for the Yankees to pick up.
From the Twins perspective, they land a young catcher who also has shown signs of putting up decent offensive production at an up the middle position, but I’m a little more skeptical that he’ll retain his offensive value going forward. Murphy possesses less power than Hicks, but doesn’t offset that with better contact skills, nor has he shown the willingness to take pitches in order to draw walks to keep his on-base percentage up. His decent numbers in part-time play the last two years are BABIP-driven, and as a slow-footed catcher who doesn’t have a remarkable batted ball profile — his infield fly rate is actually higher than average — that shouldn’t be expected to last.
So Murphy’s probably more of a below average hitter, with Steamer projecting him as an 85 wRC+ guy in 2016, and not a lot of offensive potential beyond that unless he finds some power he hasn’t yet shown. That’s good enough offense to play in the big leagues — Wilson Ramos has an 85 wRC+ over the last three seasons, for instance — but to be a quality performer, he’d have to be a very good defensive catcher; there’s not a ton of evidence that’s the case, though. Statcorner graded him out as exactly average at pitch framing, and while he throws out a good enough number of baserunners, he doesn’t appear to be anything special at blocking pitches in the dirt.
Overall, Murphy looks like he likely fits best as a part-time catching option, a guy with enough skills to not be a black hole behind the plate, but probably not a guy deserving of a full-time job. The Twins needed help behind the plate, and this beats paying a lot of money to Matt Wieters or something, but I don’t know that Murphy is going to be more than a decent platoon guy in Minnesota.
For me, that makes this trade a pretty nice move for the Yankees. In Hicks, they’re getting a guy not too different from the middle-tier free agent center fielders, all of whom are in their 30s and expected to land 3-4 year deals for $10+ million per year. To get that kind of player for a decent backup catcher is a nice move by Brian Cashman, and sets them up to potentially swap Gardner or Ellsbury for something better than Murphy, and freeing up money to potentially make a run at another starting pitcher. Like last year’s Devon Travis/Anthony Gose swap, this isn’t going to be any kind of headline news, but might be the kind of early offseason small move that ends up paying dividends for the Yankees.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
If Hicks splits against right handers are helped at all by the short porch in YS3 this could be a very nice get for Cashman
curious to see hicks’ fly ball data as a LHH and how it could play out in yankee stadium. huge swing going from right field in minn vs ny. much like the ackley trade- he had a great hard hit % on fly balls pulled but was thwarted by safeco.
Hicks is barely a switch hitter.
He was so awful at it, he gave it up for awhile…
But he went back to it this year and found some success by swinging at pitches in the strike zone.
If Hicks happens to have a spray chart that fits YS really well, you might have a point.
Otherwise, inflated stats from an offense-friendly park don’t actually make the hitter move valuable… because all batters hit better in that park.
I think that’s exactly what Steve sankey is saying: if Hicks’ batted ball profile fits a specific style, then moving from Target Field to Yankee Stadium could make Hicks more valuable. If he has a propensity for poorly hit fly balls to right field, then playing half his games in a park that increases rather than decreases the value of those batted balls could work out well for him.
I don’t think that’s what Steve was saying: “If Hicks splits against right handers are helped at all by the short porch in YS3 this could be a very nice get for Cashman.” Helped at all? Yeah, just about any LHH is going to be helped by YS. That doesn’t mean his batted ball profile fits the stadium particularly well.
My point is that while it might boost Hicks’ stats, a player’s value is generally a park neutral thing. Stick just about any LH hitter with some power in YS, and he’s going to hit more HRs. That doesn’t mean that he’s suddenly a better hitter, though.
I can’t actually speak for Steve so maybe I misinterpreted him. And I am not saying that Hicks moving parks and seeing his stats increase as a result means he has become a better hitter. I’m just saying that if his batted ball profile is a good fit for the Yankee Stadium, then this could be a good move for Hicks and the Yankees. So if Hicks does indeed hit fly balls to right field more often than others, a trait which is detrimental in most parks will return a greater value in Yankee Stadium. But I don’t actually know Hicks’ spray chart so this is still all hypothetical, for me at least.
Hicks has tended to perform worse at the MLB level than his projections in the past would indicate. It could be that the Twins at least valued him at less than the Steamer batting projection of 99 wRC+ indicates.
Correction: Hicks has 4 years team control remaining. Just over 2 years service time so far.
How does a team give up a pre-Arb CFer pretty much off a breakout season for a part time catcher? Potential steal for the Cashmans. Jeez.
He played 97 games after being called up from AAA and recorded 1.5 WAR. That’s hardly what I would call a “breakout season.” At best, it’s hopefully (for the Yankees) a sign of things to come.
Sure, closer to near breakout. Point stands that a guy with the minor league resume, multiple tools, solid pedigree (mid 1st rd pick) going for this little is a potential heist.
I’m not sure how long we get to use the minor league resume. I mean, Logan Morrison has it too. Hicks rankings generally fell every year (39, 19, 45, NR, 72) although he usually remained in the top 100.
You don’t have to buy in. Solid upside play for a part time C for a guy who at the very least is a + glove in CF and has good speed (and a SHer). Nice get.
Murphy’s getting a bit underrated, here. He’s got the potential to be a 95-105 wRC+ guy with average to above-average defense.
I’d say it’s a deal that helps both teams.
His speed is a little overrated as well. Dude doesn’t have a feel for base stealing and runs himself into outs or gets picked off way too much for his athletic ability. He needs to improve his mental focus.
Outside of July 2015, he’s never shown he can hit? The Twins have the best CF prospect in the game coming up this year and Hicks bat won’t play in a corner? Twins have had him for 3 years and don’t think his defense will play up much better? (I was surprised how the defensive stats rated him).
Byron Buxton,and Kurt Suzuki thats why.Hicks kept cf warm for Byron,and Kurt needs and occasional rest.
So? That’s an excuse for moving somebody, not an excuse for the return they received.
This is highway robbery by the Yankees. Hicks is an easy 2WAR player if his bat stalls at its current level, but Hicks has shown the ability to continually, steadily improve throughout his career.
He has?
One good month last year sandwiched between a sub .600 and .701 OPS is not really what I call continual improvement…
Wow – Hicks for basically a backup catcher? The Twins must’ve been really eager to get rid of him now that his value is actually positive, and must not have had a lot of faith in the growth he’s shown.
This reminds me so much of the Carlos Gomez/J.J. Hardy trade. Young outfielder the Twins traded just as he was figuring it out, in exchange for an asset who provides only nominal value. Hopefully this doesn’t work out the same way.
Also, please tell me they are making room for Kepler and not for another year of Tori Hunter…
I retired because of meanies like you!
Come on, Gomez took another two years after the trade before he “figured it out.” Also, saying Hardy had “nominal value” is severely discounting his worth. There’s no way the Twins gave up too early on Gomez.
He had 1 WAR over 110 games the season before the trade and an injury history. He did some great things with the Orioles after leaving Minnesota, but at the time he was a big question mark.
…and he had had 4 WAR in each year before that.
Any competent GM makes that trade every time.
Really? Even though he only had one year left before free agency? Hardy would have had true accrue a ton of value in that one year to offset even a modest projection for Gomez through his arbitration years (would have been through 2013).
If you also recall, the Twins chose between Span and Gomez.
They chose to stick with Span, who was for awhile, better then Gomez.
Then Gomez figured it out.
You’re aware that Torii Hunter announced his retirement some time ago, right?
They’re also making room for Sano to try the outfield. Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Sano–they’ve got some OF (potential) assets and require a catcher. Suzuki has been poor at pitch framing and throwing out runners, while being not bad at blocking–he and Murphy are a fairly good pairing.
JacLOLby ELOLsberry
D’Ellsbury
steal a base in the world series and we all get…. Tacoby Shellsbury
I hope the yanks give some AAA guys like Slade and Mason a chance to make it
Given the Yankees’ history? Sooooo not happening.
Murphy will likely improve his numbers at the plate with regular chances. Look at what happened to Francisco Cervelli who went from a back-up with the Yanks to one of the best starting catchers in the NL. Given his splits, Hicks looks more like a replacement for Chris Young as a RH OF. Yanks Mason Williams had better AAA stats. Certainly hope Hicks is not a replacement for Gardner who in an imjured year was better than Hicks.
Why would Murphy improve just because he gets more chances? Because he was a Yankee? Nothing indicates that he is anything more than a backup catcher. Nothing in his stats in the minors show anything other than mediocrity. He is nothing like Cervelli.
Hahahaha, Cervelli’s MiLB stats aren’t even close to Murphy’s.
Cervelli hit 92 and 96 wRC+ at age 24 and 25. Murphy was hitting 96 wRC+ at age 24. Both are backup catchers who got around 150~200 PA averagely.
Not saying Murphy is going to to through Cervelli route, but 96 wRC+, though small sample size, at age 24 as a catcher is not a bad sign.
Most hitters hit better with regular chances. It’s a hard game, and harder if you only see occasional chances to get your timing.
Nice post, most striking thing to me out of this is just how bad Ellsbury’s contract is at this point. Knew he was declining, but didn’t realize he was down to projected 2 WAR and declining. With another five years, that’s bad.
He was actually great early in the season before he got hurt. Then he fell of a cliff. So those numbers are deceptive. He will bounce back this year and likely perform to his 2013-14 stats.
Or he’ll get hurt again, and play like he did this year, and in 2012.
It’s Ellsbury.
lousy trade for yanks. murphy good backup excellent fielder for another mediocre hitting OF that are a dime a dozen?
One would think you would find smarter fans here. Murphy is not an excellent fielder. He is average as shown by every stat. He is your classic backup catcher whose bat doesn’t play as a starter and will below replacement level. Teams overpay for young catching.
Hicks was actually a prospect who is already an elite defender. He finally is starting to hit. He will never be great, but has a ton more talent than Murphy and is the better player now and going forward.
You seem slightly clueless.
You seem slightly clueless as well. Not saying this isn’t a good trade for the yanks, but hicks is not an “elite” defensive centerfielder.
…and he’s still going!
After clearly not having looked up Cervelli’s minor league stat line, he’s now claiming 700 innings of catcher defense means anything at all, statistically.
As if stats for C are all that comprehensive. I thought Murphy was actually better than McCann last year defensively if you take into account framing.
Offensively I though Murphy came into his own in the 2nd half, but thats SSS. He is at least league average in that department.
A league average C is quite valuable. I am not sure Hicks is a league average OF’er
Wow. Who the hell is Steve to cast stones and imply someone isn’t smart. I thought we had smarter fans too. Everyone knows our metrics don’t properly capture C defense.
And then to claim that Hicks has elite CF defense – when we are MUCH more confident in the reliability of the defensive metrics for outfielders – I just don’t even know where to begin with you Steve.
Dick.
The metrics aren’t showing that Hicks preformed at a Kiermaier level this year. But Hicks is young, and at the very least, he’s an *athletic* defender. Cashman knows that if the athleticism is there already, then a bit of discipline and experience can lead to the kind of performance that gets reflected in the metrics. Players make improvements all the time, I don’t see why you guys speak in such absolute terms about a kid in his early 20s.
any chance gardner gets dealt and the yanks move jacoby to LF? hicks is a better centerfielder at this point than jacoby
God, what happened to the quality of Fangraph comment sections.
It looks like a pretty ignorant Yankees invasion to me.
Russell Martin.
Francisco Cervelli.
Chris Stewart.
Chris Stewart sucks.
Season’s over, so a lot of bright people left until pitchers and catchers report, and this article brought out a bunch of Yankee fans.
…Yankees fans are pissed about losing Murphy. That’s not at all the tone here.
Try again.
I see one of these posts nearly every other day, and it’s rarely by a commenter I recognize or one who does much to improve the quality of these comment sections. Be the change you want to see: don’t feed the trolls, make intelligent points, be polite, and downvote asinine posters (those that show up on every article about a certain team and post homeristic nonsense, those that take other users’ names to make them look bad rather than contribute positively, etc.). Pretty easy rulebook to live by, and if we all did it we’d have a better comment section and wouldn’t need these posts.
At the very least the Twins get more years of team control from Murphy than they would have had on Hicks. Sucks to be Josmil Pinto right now with Murphy coming over to take C innings and Park probably also on the way to take 1B/DH AB’s.
I think it’s 4 years for 4 years, actually.
Hicks is at 2.041 years service per Cot’s and Murphy is at 1.12 per Cot’s
I have to plead ignorance here about whether that will result in an extra year of control for Murphy….I guess maybe if they do some service time shenanigans? (Something the twins have done a few times thinking of Hardy and Arcia).
Huh, you’re right. B-Ref has Murphy becoming a FA in 2021, to Hicks’ 2020.
I didn’t realize how much of 2014 he spent in the minors.
As a Twins fan who has watched Hicks spit the bit time and again, I think this might be okay. Hicks had only one month last season with an OPS over .701, and that was as a near-26-year old who had to begin the year at AAA. I don’t know that Murphy is anything special, either, but he is slightly younger, and the Twins really have no one to catch besides Suzuki (and Mauer, if they would realize that his 94 wRC+ looks pretty decent if he’s catching 80 games per year). If we assume that Hicks is a good fourth OF and Murphy is a good back-up catcher (and that neither is nothing more), then I’ll take the catcher. You would be hard-pressed to get me to see Hicks as much more than a good fourth OF.
You can’t send Mauer behind the plate to get concussed by a Bat backswing again, that’s so obvious.
It could be argued that Mauer at 1B/DH with a .718 OPS (and questionable defense) doesn’t help the Twins. But a .718 catcher is a pretty good thing. If he gets injured catching, then at least you had a reasonable-hitting catcher for a while, and if he doesn’t get hurt, then you didn’t waste as much of his $23M contract as you would have, had you played him at 1B.
The Twins can’t treat a potential concussion like any other injury that they might have to deal with. They need to consider Mauer’s wellbeing, which is why they can’t just ask him to catch again. It’d be pretty unethical with what we are learning about head injuries now.
This strikes me as extremely optimistic about Hicks and mildly pessimistic about Murphy.
Miguel Sano may play LF next year. With Mauer and Park, the Twins do not have a full time job for Sano at 1B or DH. And Trevor Plouffe is actually pretty good at 3B, so I suspect Sano will not immediately displace him.
Hicks was just taking up space. But still… it seems the Twins could have gotten more than John Ryan Murphy.
Meanwhile, Yankees fans are saying
“Brian McCann may be locked in for the next few years, and Sanchez is clearly in position to take the backup role in the spring. Murphy was just taking up space. But still…it seems the Yankees could have gotten more than Aaron Hicks.”
No doubt. I suspect Yankee fans will wind up being pleased with this deal by this time next year. But I am relying entirely on the power of guessing.
And yes – Yankee fans are likely saying, “We suspect Twin fans will wind up being pleased with JR Murphy by this time next year.”
Yeah, both fan bases are pretty pissed about it…which means that it was a good deal for both teams, haha.
The only way I can play Devil’s advocate for the Twins here is assuming that perhaps young catchers with 5 years of team control and any potential to become a non-zero with the bat aren’t so readily abundant and available. While you can argue that waiting is better than selling with tunnel vision and limiting the range of potential returns at some point a roster needs to be built.
The twins have next to nothing at catcher long-term before this deal and still have Buxton/Rosario/Kepler/Arcia left in the OF after it. With a really weak FA C class and the Twins being budget conscious I can almost see where MIN is coming from despite this being a trade that looks questionable at a surface glance.
Hicks breakout primarily came in a 20 game stretch in July when he had a 1137 OPS. Before July he had a 573 OPS, after a 662 OPS. AL offense was up almost 35 OPS points in the 2nd half for reasons unknown, so adjust for that and his post July numbers don’t look much different than pre-July. I don’t really see much evidence of a break out myself. Also, he hit much better at home, probably because his balls had more space to drop in for hits. He won’t have that at YS3, although maybe he gets a few more HR on his FB if he can prevent himself from getting pull happy from his weak side (LHB)
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Hicks has the best season out of Hicks, Ellsbury, and Gardner. Looking at his July, before he got hurt…. Hmmm….
Love what this deal does for Byron Buxton and especially Gary Sanchez. Buxton was always going to be the starting CF. But Sanchez’ path to play part time in NY seems a lot more open than it was yesterday. And if Cashman was thinking I’ll trade Murphy and keep Sanchez, I’d have to agree with that…
I think you’re undervaluing Murphy, personally, and glossing over the very real possibility that Hicks is a RH platoon bat (with LHPs throwing, what, 25% of PAs). I like the move for both teams, and think it could go either way.
There were all of 11 Cs in MLB last season with ~2+ fWAR (1.8+), compared to 25 CFs. That might be an issue with the positional adjustments used for fWAR, but it seems to indicate that a decent C is a lot more valuable than a decent CF. There were also roughly 10 league average plus offensive Cs (by wRC+) with 300+ PAs compared to roughly 20 CFs. (I’m not saying I think Murphy is more valuable than Hicks, necessarily, but rather that the bar is a lot lower for Murphy than Hicks.)
You’ve kind of written off Murphy and decided Hicks will be what he was in 2015 going forward based on one projection model and fairly small historical samples. I would be interested to see how accurate Steamer has been historically at projecting players with similar track records.
(Also… while Hicks could step in for Gardner or Ellsbury, he could also platoon with both.)
A few comments here about “Keeping CF warm for Buxton”, “Buxton will be the CF”, etc. Who here is seriously sold on Buxton’s ability to 1)stay healthy and 2)live up to anything near his hype?
I know I’m not.
I like JC a lot. I wish he’d gotten a shot full time with the Yanks but the McCann trade saw to that.
He’s a VERY good handler of pitchers, starting caliber for sure.
And his hits always seem to be timely.
Francisco Cervelli was never any more promising and he hit almost .300 for the Pirates this year.
I think JC will be a starter and a great get for the Twins for a longgggg time.
Who is jc?