Yankees’ Pitching Comes Through, Saves New York’s Season and Forces Game 5
Beyond Giancarlo Stanton going electric and Gerrit Cole proving that investing $315 million in him was one of Brian Cashman’s better decisions, not a whole lot else has gone right for the Yankees against the Rays. Going into Game 4 needing a win to stay alive, they’d found no answer to the Ruth and Gehrig cosplay of Randy Arozarena and Ji-Man Choi. They’d struggled to do much of anything when faced with Tampa Bay’s best relievers. Most of the lineup aside from Stanton, Aaron Hicks, DJ LeMahieu and (unexpectedly enough) backup catcher turned starter Kyle Higashioka hadn’t shown up. New York had come by its series deficit and a potential trip home fairly.
But the biggest problem for the Yankees in this series is the one that was the biggest problem in the 2019 playoffs and the biggest problem in the 2018 playoffs and the biggest problem in the 2017 playoffs: a pitching staff that hasn’t performed consistently. Granted, that’s a small sample, with only six starts so far and two of those belonging to Cole. But Masahiro Tanaka, normally the postseason stalwart, has been bludgeoned in his two turns, including Game 3. Aaron Boone’s attempt at a Rays-style opener gambit in Game 2 quickly went pear-shaped. Game 4 rested on Jordan Montgomery, who hadn’t pitched in over two weeks and could at best provide three or four innings in what would be his postseason debut. If he went south early, making it to Game 5 was highly unlikely.
Yet for the first time this month, Boone got a capable start from a non-Cole pitcher, and his bullpen was able to hold it together for a 5–1 win. Even better, Game 5 will be in the hands of Cole, who held the Rays in check in Game 1, bulldozed the Indians in the Wild Card round, and would be a popular pick league-wide for “man you most want on the mound in an elimination game.”
Even with the Rays utilizing a bullpen game on Thursday — sidearmer Ryan Thompson as the opener followed by bulk guy Ryan Yarbrough — they were still the favorite heading into the night, per the ZiPS projection odds, at 53.2%. New York was at the pitching disadvantage and has been every time Cole hasn’t been the one making the first pitch, and Game 4 looked to be the same outcome on paper. The difference was Montgomery, who despite sitting idle since his last start of the regular season back on September 24 allowed just one run in four innings. He faced the minimum through the first two frames, then wobbled in the third. Holding a 2–0 lead, he allowed a leadoff walk to Willy Adames and a ground-rule double to Kevin Kiermaier and loaded the bases with a one-out walk to Yandy Díaz. Brandon Lowe drove in a run with a grounder up the middle, but LeMahieu’s diving stop saved multiple runs from scoring, and Montgomery got out of trouble by getting Arozarena to ground out, New York’s lead intact.
Arozarena and Choi were finally kept in check by Yankees pitching. Montgomery beat the Cuban outfielder by staying off the plate with breaking and offspeed stuff, keeping him from zeroing in on fastballs as he has all series; he went hitless for the first time this postseason. Choi, meanwhile, picked up only a single in three at-bats (though he has to be just about the only hitter on that team looking forward to facing Cole, given his bonkers career numbers against him).
With those two silenced, the rest of the Rays’ offense followed suit, never mounting a serious threat after that bases loaded squander. They had two on with two out in the fourth against Montgomery only for Kiermaier to ground out to first. After that, the next 11 Rays hitters went down in order, five by strikeout, against Chad Green and Zack Britton. Aroldis Chapman finished things quietly, coming in with two outs in the eighth and working around a walk by striking out Arozarena to close that inning, then tossing a 1-2-3 ninth.
Green and Britton deserve the lion’s share of the praise for the win. They tossed 3.2 perfect innings and kept Tampa Bay off the board while New York expanded its lead thanks to Gleyber Torres. In the sixth, he cracked an enormous two-run homer off Yarbrough that went 108 mph off the bat and smashed into the windows of the third floor of the Western Metal Supply Co. building beyond Petco Park’s left-field wall. That was all the extra offense the Yankees would need, though they tacked on a run in the ninth for insurance.
All told, four pitchers combined for the win, and while it was excellent work on their parts, it illustrates how much spit and gum the Yankees have to use right now beyond Cole to make things stick together. Despite a payroll over $200 million and one of the best player development systems in the game, New York stumbled into the postseason with a patchwork rotation and weakened bullpen. With James Paxton still on the Injured List and J.A. Happ struggling, Boone doesn’t have much beyond Cole and the now mortal Tanaka. Argue if you want in the comments (and you definitely will) over Boone’s decision to pull Deivi García for Happ in Game 2. But just as it was against Houston in 2019 and ‘17 and Boston in between, the end result is a New York rotation lacking in depth or consistency.
Cole was the bid to change that, and so far he has in each of his starts. On Friday night, Boone will likely be able to relax ever so slightly knowing that his team’s playoff hopes are with the right man. But if the Yankees do make their Game 4 stand count and move on to face the Astros (yet again) in the ALCS, they need Tanaka to get right or to trust that García can hold his own or that Montgomery is able to give them three or four useful innings. They need for Green and Britton to come up big each time out and for Chapman not to wobble and for someone in that grouping of Adam Ottavino and Jonathan Loaisiga and Jonathan Holder to give them some help.
Those are a lot of conditionals, and it’s why even with a dangerous offense and Cole leading the way, the Yankees are in the predicament they are, needing another win to avoid an 11th straight season without a World Series trophy coming back to the Bronx. Game 4 probably isn’t replicable. But something like it is going to have to be the foundation, given the lack of off-days in the ALCS. It’s a problem with no easy solution, and one New York is going to have to figure out regardless.
The Rays need to concentrate on high heat and use everyone who can throw it. With the exception of one at bat by Fraser, the Yankees have been futile at hitting the the 99/100 that a broad selection of the Rays can throw. For some reason they keep mixing in low pitches which the Yankees thrive on hitting for homers.
I know it feels like the Yankees pitching has been awful this series, but objectively, the Yankees have conceded fewer runs than the Rays. The Rays pitching has given up 9, 5, 4, and 5 runs. They’ve not really kept the Yankees in check in a single game yet. On the other hand, Yankees pitchers have kept the Rays to three runs or fewer in two out of four games.
As a Yankees fan, the tone of the article feels right to me. But if I put aside my feelings and try to look objectively, the Rays need to score at least six runs to beat the Yankees because their pitching has not been able to keep the Yankees off the scoreboard in any of the games, and yet the Rays have failed to score more than three runs in half the games, and they are now tasked with scoring all of these runs off Cole.
With Stanton and Judge back healthy, it is pretty clear which team has the stronger bat.
So if they concede similar amount of runs, I would still take it as evidence that Rays pitching has done a better job.
I completely agree. The Rays pitching has done a better job. My comment was really about the tone of the story which suggests the Yankees pitching is really struggling. In actuality the story should be that despite dominant pitching and good execution by the Rays, the Yankees are still scoring more than 5 runs per game against the Rays.
Yay! A winner-take-all, game 5. Always fun.
One of the Yankees or Rays will be a winner after tonight’s game, but the real winner is the *stros. They get to rest for two days, while the team they face—be it the Rays or Yankees—will have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at each other. The Yankees, for example, wouldn’t be able to pitch Cole twice in the ALCS, and he wouldn’t even be available until game 4. And for the Rays, if both Glasnow and Snell pitch, who starts game 1? Morton on three days rest?
Yes. The most 2020 of things. The Astros are the winners here, at least early on.
I said yesterday that Montgomery might be the Yankees’ second best starter behind Cole, and now I’m pretty convinced that it’s true. Deivi Garcia might change that in a year or two, but for now I’m pretty confident with this.
Part of the problem with trying to construct a day-to-day analysis of starting pitching is that the starting pitcher changes each day, and part of the problem with a day-to-day analysis of the Rays is that their roster is so modular that they wind up rolling out a totally different cast each day. So it’s kind of impossible to talk about yesterday’s game and its implications for the next one. It’s probably better to rewind and look at Gerrit Cole’s and Tyler Glasnow’s track record at a more general level than what happened yesterday, and whether the projected lineups match up well against them. My gut level instinct is that while facing Glasnow isn’t ideal, having Cole start (given the other options) is so much more important for them that this is as good a situation as they’re going to get.
In a year or two the Yankees second through fifth best pitchers are going to be wild. Garcia is just the first man up from a parade of pitchers who throw gas with wicked breaking balls. The NY player dev team has done incredible work.
As the next crew matriculates through the bushes, and the healthiest young arms start to debut in the Bronx it’s going to look an awful lot like what Tampa is doing with their staff now—except they’ll have a near-limitless ability to supplement that core through trades and free agency.
2020 felt like the last AL season where the Yankees wouldn’t post from day one like the Dodgers do in the NL. If Tampa is going to get over they probably won’t have a better opportunity than right now.
What? The Yankees team is losing quite a few pieces this year and their players are getting more expensive every year through arb. Their farm system is also mediocre compared to the #1 system in the majors the Rays.
The Rays will graduate Wander Franco, Vidal Brujan, Shane McClannahan (he of the 101 MPH and wicked off-speed), Shane Baz, Xavier Edwards, Josh Lowe, Joe Ryan (the best K% SP in the minors), Ronaldo Hernandez, etc. Who knows what we get with healthy McKay and Honeywell, and that’s in addition to none of our impact players going anywhere for a long time.
I’d argue this is the Yankees window, not the Rays. If anything the Rays will be the ones projected to win Pennants every year for a while.
Agree the Rays have the best farm system in baseball and are built for as much sustainable success as any team in baseball other than maybe the Dodgers.
We have Aroz, Lowe, Adames, Meadows, Diaz, Wendle, Bross, etc. (you get the point) for a long long time. The only guys over 2 year service time are KK, Zunino, Margot, Snell, Roe, and Drake. KK is likely traded and a Margot/Phillips platoon is in CF until J. Lowe/Brujan is ready, Z is gonna be non-tendered, Snell is locked up for a bit and Roe/Drake are mostly expendable especially being injured and taking 40 man spots. We’re not losing anyone until like 2024/2025 at the earliest AND we have a metric ton of talented prospects on the way.
The Rays aren’t going anywhere for a long time. Now, look at the Yankees roster, their payroll, and their arb salaries. Losing Tanaka, DJL, Gardner, etc. The Yankees are all ready over the tax threshold and with their exploding arb salaries they’re not going to have much money to work with. Couple that with a middling system and this is their window. They better win a WS in the next 1-2 years or they’ll be hurting.
Prospects bust. Especially pitching prospects. Especially pitching prospects who throw hard and have command issues. It’s obviously better they have those guys that not (and that is probably the real lesson of TINSTAAP–that you need to stockpile pitchers), but we should know better than to just pencil everyone in the rotation, and to think that even the ones who make it will hit their ceiling. It just doesn’t work that way.
Sure, but I just found it silly someone talking about the Yankees rotation prospects in comparison to the Rays when the Rays have the better rotation now and way better SP prospects. Our #4 Yarbs would be their #2/#3 never mind McKay, Honeywell, Baz, McClannahan, Ryan, Fleming, in the high minors/majors (sans probably Baz) and then guys like Goss, Bitsko, Johnson, etc. in the lower minors.
Anyone talking about the Yankees being penciled in for pennants year after year like the Dodgers don’t know what they’re talking about (which was my point).
Severino still exists. Yarborough would not be anywhere close to the Yankees #2 going forward. Also, the Rays don’t have Morton after this year, so Yarborough is actually the Rays’ #3 going forward.
Morton has an option year. If he wants to come back he’ll be back. Ideally, a healthy Morton is a good asset, but I don’t think the drop off would be too much. We do have to make room for some of these guys eventually. It sucks Chirinos is hurt and out next year.
We have a lot of guys who could be #2’s or could bust. The big 2 ?? are McKay and Honeywell. Then there are top flight guys like Joe Ryan, McClannahan, Baz (probably moreso in 2022, but you never know), etc. Fleming looked great this year, but SSS and at best he’s probably #5. Yarbs is hugely underrated. Guy is fantastic.
I hope Morton decides against retirement. He’s fun to watch pitch. However, as is, going forward the Yankees have Cole, Severino, and then will be filling in behind. The Rays will have Snell, Glasnow, and then are filling in behind. The Yankees top two going forward are better than the Rays top two. The Rays fill in pieces behind are better than the Yankees. But actually the gulf between the two teams is less than you are making out. Also, the Yankees have a pretty sizeable edge with respect to position players.
The Yanks have the better position players now, but they are very fragile and the Rays have a ton of top position player prospects so by the end of next year it could be the Rays with the better lineup (I’d argue we run the bases better and play better defense now…sooo). On top of that the Yanks are losing DJL. It’ll be costly to resign. If they don’t that’s a huge loss.
Franco, Brujan, and Lowe are way better prospects in the high minors compared to what the Yanks have.
DJL is pretty much guaranteed to resign. He wants to be a Yankee and he’s beloved by both the fans and the team. The Yankees have a relatively young and controlled player at every single position. Their farm system doesn’t really matter with respect to the expected position players going forward. Right now the Yankees are better at every single position, so those players coming up better really pan out for the Rays ;).
Every position? That’s hyperbole. We’ll see if he re-signs. The Yankees are really going to have bust open the tax threshold. Your arb salaries are going to be through the roof and it’s going to be expensive to re-sign DJL let alone another SP.
Its not hyperbole though. The Yankees are clearly better at 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, RF, CF, and DH. Maybe you’d prefer Arozerena over either Frazier or Gardner in LF, but realistically Arozerena has less than 200 MLB plate appearances. Maybe right now you prefer Zunino and Perez over Sanchez and Higashioka, but realistically Sanchez is the best player of the four of them, and Higashioka has performed the best of all of them during this postseason.
Clearly better? KK performs better than Hicks, Adames is as good as Torres (and has better WAR/600), Lowe is better than DJL (this is probably going to be the most controversial), a Diaz/Wendle platoon is as good as Urshela, etc. Don’t believe me, look at their WAR stats. The Rays get a lot of value from defense and base-running that the Yanks give up. The Yanks will slug, the Rays play the rest of the game better.
Don’t get me wrong. The Yanks have great position players, you’re just severely under-estimating the Rays. Meadows, Lowe, Aroz, KK, Adames are all fantastic players. Plus you do have to ding the Yankees for being injury prone. You can’t expect Stanton or Judge to play more than 100 games a year which severely hurts their value.
KK out performs Hicks?! Realistically, Kiermaier wouldn’t make the Yankees 40 man roster. He’s been a below average hitter for three years. His glove no longer carries his bat. Hicks hits lefties and righties and is an OBP machine. If you need a platoon to be as good as Urshela, then you are not as good as Urshela. Lowe is a very good player, and the Yankees would find a spot for him, but realistically, he is not yet better than DJL on either side of the ball. The Adames Torres comparison is the most interesting. Torres is a better hitter, and Adames a better fielder. Torres is also considerably younger. Every GM in baseball would prefer Torres going forward.
I really like the Rays side. They are good, and the team definitely knows how to put them in positions where they can succeed. They will continue to be good for the foreseeable future. But if you think the Yankees are going away any time soon, you are fooling yourself.
Funny, that was a response to Sonny L, but Wegandi727 thought it was about his comment.
I don’t think the Rays’ prospects have the same caveats as the Yankees’ incredibly raw but wild flamethrowers, mostly because they have so much redundancy in their prospects up the middle. These guys are going to have a pretty good center fielder, shortstop, and second baseman (which may or may not be Brandon Lowe, wherever he plays). For the Rays, the question is whether they’ll go into cost-cutting mode as soon as a guy gets expensive.
It’s easy to forget that the Yankees rotation was supposed to be Cole-Paxton-Severino-Tanaka-any of multiple options. Hard to think of many teams that would be in a great spot after losing their #2 and #3 options (Astros are an example, I guess).
The Braves rotation lost its #1 (Soroka), #3 (Folty), #4 (Hamels), #5/6 (Newcomb and King Felix) options and has struggled due to it. Thankfully Anderson has filled in ably and they haven’t needed more than 3 starters yet. The idea of starting Kyle Wright against any of the remaining teams is scary tho, and the options only get worse from there.
Chad Green was definitely the MVP of this game. The TBS broadcasters were speculating that he maybe could give them one inning, or a few pitches to get out of a jam. Instead, he threw two perfect innings and looked quite strong in those innings. A couple of balls were hit hard that made my stomach sink at first, but the ball didn’t appear to be carrying as much as in previous games in this series, so it worked out. Green definitely did his job and then more by bridging the gap, and not making the Yanks go to lesser arms in that pen. Britton was the runner-up MVP in my book, he looked great.
Kudos to Montgomery. The walks were concerning, but his gameplan yesterday was to definitely try and work around the edge of the zone, and that opens the door for walks. I have no idea how he worked out of that bases loaded, nobody out jam with just one run allowed. Interestingly enough, both teams were in that situation in this game, and each team scored just one run. A lot of Yankees fans don’t like Monty, but as another poster mentioned, he could very well be their second-best starter. I’ve always liked him, and I think the Yankees do too. His peripherals this season were quite encouraging coming off his first real action since TJS, and I’m very interested to see what he does in a full season.
Anyways, enough rambling. Game 5 should be a lot of fun.
Yankees fans: Gerrit Cole will lead us to the ALCS!!!
Rays fans: Tyler Glasnow will shut down the Yanks!!!
Pirates fans: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
This has really been an entertaining series. The entire postseason has been fantastic. I’m sure some of that is residual sports withdrawal?
But I’ve had a blast watching these games, man.
Hooo boy. Big ‘un tonight, fellas!
Montgomery was pretty good last night. I loved watching him his rookie season. I’ve a spot in my heart for those tall, thin pitchers that throw a half dozen different pitches.
As M. Taylor points out in the recap, pitching “issues” have derailed the Yankees postseason the past few years.
Cole Vs Glasnow?
C’mon!
That’s a good matchup. Should be another good one, man.
May the best team emerge to go on & destroy the Astros*.
🙂