Yoshinobu Yamamoto One-Ups Blake Snell, Dodgers Coast To 2-0 NLCS Lead

It could not have started worse. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s first pitch of NLCS Game 2 was a 97-mph four-seam fastball to Jackson Chourio, the Brewers’ powerful leadoff hitter. Chourio promptly hammered it 389 feet into the Dodgers’ bullpen. It landed like a signal to the relievers milling out on the berm: Be alert, you might be needed sooner than you thought.
They would not be necessary. It’s hard to imagine a better pitching performance than that of Yamamoto’s teammate, Blake Snell, who delivered 10 strikeouts over eight innings the previous night. But Yamamoto managed to one-up him.
Over 111 magnificent pitches, Yamamoto rendered the Brewers’ bats rudderless, holding them to that single run over a three-hit complete game. It was the first in the playoffs in eight years, and it certainly offered one possible solution to the Dodgers’ bullpen woes: What if you just didn’t need those guys?
The Dodgers’ offense, meanwhile, chased Freddy Peralta after 5 2/3 innings and three runs allowed, giving Yamamoto all the cushion he’d need. They ultimately came away with a 5-1 win, taking both games in Milwaukee and securing a 2-0 series lead.
As evidenced by Chourio’s tank, the Brewers came out aggressive, swinging early and often. But Yamamoto, to his credit, adjusted beautifully, throwing a first-pitch four-seamer just two times the rest of the game.
The reduced fastball usage was paramount. His splitter and curveball both featured more prominently than the four-seamer, which came in at just 23% usage. In addition to seven strikeouts — three of them looking — the Brewers mustered just a .234 xBA, pounding ball after ball into the ground, unable to sit on any given speed or movement profile. Yamamoto fired 73% strikes, living in the zone with all six of his pitches.
Yamamoto retired the final 14 hitters he faced, and by the time he gained a two-run advantage, the game started to feel like a foregone conclusion, making a smallish lead look insurmountable as only a premium ace can.
That lead was downstream of the most pivotal strategic moment of the game: Brewers manager Pat Murphy’s decision to leave Peralta in for the sixth inning. Headed into the sixth, the game resembled something like a pitcher’s duel, with the Brewers trailing by just a single run. After Chourio’s home run, the Dodgers countered with two runs in the top of the second, a Teoscar Hernández solo homer and an Andy Pages RBI double down the right field line.
Peralta never looked particularly sharp. After two innings, he’d already thrown 45 pitches, laboring through foul balls and deep counts. Still, partially due to his infernal stuff, partially thanks to a couple nifty plays by his defense, he’d largely kept runs off the board. In the fifth, he escaped a jam, inducing a groundball double play off the bat of Mookie Betts to end the inning. If he’d gotten just the one out, he’d in all likelihood have been pulled from the game. Aaron Ashby warmed in the bullpen, ready to take on the lefty Freddie Freeman. After the double play ended the inning, it still figured that the lefty Ashby would be brought in for the start of the sixth to handle Freeman and, up third in the inning, Max Muncy.
The broadcast relayed that, following the conclusion of the fifth, Peralta and Murphy had a little chat in the dugout. Peralta told Murphy he had one more inning in him. Another frame would have been a boon in more ways than one: The Brewers used six pitchers in their Game 1 loss, including all five of their preferred leverage arms. A bit of length was much desired, and Murphy rolled the dice, leaving Peralta in to take on Freeman, Will Smith, and Muncy.
It got off to an ideal start; Freeman popped up on the first pitch he saw, and Smith tapped a groundball to third base. Two quick outs, and just one hitter to retire. Then it started to come apart. Peralta fell behind Muncy 3-0. To get back in the count, he threw a fastball belt high on the outside edge of the zone. Muncy took the pitch for a called strike.
The next pitch was also a fastball; the location was nearly identical to the previous pitch. Muncy fouled it off, bringing the count full. After a fought-off slider, Peralta delivered yet another belt high outer-edge fastball, the third in four pitches. Fool me once, shame on you… fool me twice, shame on you again, I guess… but fool me thrice, well, that’s a tank. Muncy pounded that heater 110 mph on a line; it snuck just over the outstretched glove of Sal Frelick, clearing the center field wall and giving Los Angeles a 3-1 lead. Muncy’s homer represented the game’s biggest swing in win expectancy, bringing the Dodgers’ chances of winning up to 75.5%.
The Brewers did not reach base again after Muncy’s homer. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ offense bled the Milwaukee bullpen dry, tacking on two more runs to pad the gap and allow Dodgers manager Dave Roberts the confidence to ride Yamamoto all the way to the finish line.
The first of those runs came in the seventh, which led off with a double off the bat of — who else — Enrique Hernández. The utilityman continues to amaze as a presence in October. He went 2-for-3 with a walk in this game, bringing his 2025 postseason OPS to .972. After Pages pushed him over to third with a bunt, Shohei Ohtani, who surely has never first appeared this low in a Dodgers’ game story, snuck a groundball past a drawn-in Andrew Vaughn to score Hernández and make the score 4-1.
A final run came in the eighth off Tobias Myers, who lives far down the Brewers’ trust tree of relievers. Smith led off with a single; he moved to second on a Muncy walk. Teoscar Hernández moved them both up a base; with Tommy Edman up, the infield once again allowed a groundball to scoot by as they scrunched in with a runner on third.
That would be the conclusion of the meaningful offensive action. As the Dodgers mounted yet another rally in the ninth — they’d finish with 11 hits and four walks — the broadcast reported that Roberts would let Yamamoto at least start the inning, with Alex Vesia warming in case of trouble. There would be no need for Vesia.
William Contreras lifted a hanging slider into center field. Christian Yelich tapped a splitter back to Yamamoto. One out away; only Vaughn stood in the way of his nine-inning masterpiece. As he had all day, Yamamoto dropped a curveball from the sky for strike one. A splitter whiff got him ahead 0-2. Vaughn fouled off another splitter to stay alive. Not good enough. The right-hander needed to end it in style. Here came yet another splitter, this one tailing toward Vaughn’s back foot. Clean whiff; game over. Yamamoto spun around, clapped a couple times, and appeared to mouth “wow,” amazed by his own brilliance.
The series now heads to Los Angeles.
Michael Rosen is a transportation researcher and the author of pitchplots.substack.com. He can be found on Twitter at @bymichaelrosen.
I picked this game to sleep through after pulling an all-nighter, reasoned it would lower my average stress on the day to just see whatever the result was after waking up. Potentially the worst decision I could possibly have made.
Also… the ZiPS game-by-game odds seem to think the Brewers won last night. Might need a fix.