Yu Darvish, Defining “Change of Pace”
So, Yu Darvish is off to a pretty good start to 2013. Through eight starts this season, the Ranger’s right-hander currently sports the following statistics:
| GS | K% | BB% | HR/FB | ERA- | FIP- | SwgStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 39.0% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 62 | 56 | 15.7% |
Darvish currently ranks first (or tied for first) among qualified starters in K% and SwgStr%, and he has posted the 6th best adjusted FIP in the league (56 FIP-). After a blazing start, his ERA- has dropped to 20th and his HR/FB now ranks 84th, but overall it’s clear Darvish has been a beast in 2013.
After watching this wonderful footage from Darvish’s dismantling of the Angels last night I was struck by how slow is curveball actually is.
Our own Carson Cistulli isolated his four slow curves from that night — check out the final bender to Mike Trout, resulting in a strikeout in the 6th inning. And, yes, that was 61 mph.
I wondered whether the differential between Darvish’s fastball and curveball was the largest in the league. And, so, to the data I went.
I pulled the average velocity by pitch type from our PITCHf/x leaderboards and calculated the difference between each pitcher’s hardest thrown pitch and their slowest. I eliminated any pitches coded as an eephus pitch to get a more realistic read.
Through May 13, Darvish in fact has the greatest differential between his fastest and slowest thrown pitches at 26.1 mph. That’s 5 mph greater than the next starter, Chad Billingsley (21.1 mph) (note: Max and Min refer to the average velocities for a pitchers fastest and slowest pitches):
| Year | Name | Team | IP | ERA- | FIP- | K% | Max | Min | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Yu Darvish | Rangers | 52.2 | 62 | 56 | 39.00% | 93.0 | 66.9 | 26.1 |
| 2013 | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 12 | 82 | 118 | 12.20% | 91.0 | 69.9 | 21.1 |
| 2013 | A.J. Griffin | Athletics | 51.2 | 88 | 110 | 18.40% | 89.1 | 68.3 | 20.8 |
| 2013 | Eric Stults | Padres | 45.1 | 130 | 112 | 15.90% | 86.4 | 66.3 | 20.1 |
| 2013 | Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 47.1 | 73 | 86 | 14.40% | 90.7 | 71.2 | 19.5 |
| 2013 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 55.2 | 44 | 75 | 26.70% | 92.5 | 73.5 | 19.0 |
| 2013 | Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 47.1 | 56 | 114 | 15.60% | 92.5 | 73.7 | 18.8 |
| 2013 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 50.1 | 93 | 85 | 24.80% | 90.5 | 72.2 | 18.3 |
| 2013 | Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 51.2 | 46 | 75 | 26.70% | 89.6 | 71.6 | 18.0 |
| 2013 | Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 45.1 | 69 | 92 | 15.50% | 91.4 | 73.4 | 18.0 |
| 2013 | Brandon Maurer | Mariners | 34.2 | 156 | 145 | 14.70% | 91.7 | 73.8 | 17.9 |
| 2013 | Derek Holland | Rangers | 49.2 | 58 | 57 | 22.20% | 93.3 | 75.6 | 17.7 |
| 2013 | Dan Straily | Athletics | 21.2 | 178 | 96 | 26.30% | 90.8 | 73.3 | 17.5 |
| 2013 | Bronson Arroyo | Reds | 52.2 | 97 | 98 | 14.00% | 87.2 | 69.8 | 17.4 |
| 2013 | Jeff Francis | Rockies | 30 | 159 | 113 | 16.70% | 85.0 | 67.6 | 17.4 |
| 2013 | Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 11.1 | 44 | 47 | 23.80% | 90.8 | 73.5 | 17.3 |
| 2013 | Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 34.1 | 149 | 92 | 9.50% | 91.5 | 74.3 | 17.2 |
| 2013 | Brad Peacock | Astros | 22 | 234 | 184 | 17.60% | 91.4 | 74.2 | 17.2 |
| 2013 | Jon Lester | Red Sox | 52.2 | 64 | 78 | 21.50% | 92.2 | 75.1 | 17.1 |
| 2013 | Tommy Hanson | Angels | 28 | 98 | 146 | 13.90% | 88.4 | 71.3 | 17.1 |
| 2013 | Josh Beckett | Dodgers | 43.1 | 143 | 125 | 21.00% | 91.9 | 74.8 | 17.1 |
| 2013 | Phil Hughes | Yankees | 40.2 | 106 | 101 | 21.30% | 92.2 | 75.2 | 17.0 |
| 2013 | Hiram Burgos | Brewers | 21 | 179 | 138 | 12.80% | 89.7 | 73.0 | 16.7 |
| 2013 | Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 58.2 | 44 | 67 | 17.30% | 93.8 | 77.2 | 16.6 |
| 2013 | Freddy Garcia | Orioles | 12.2 | 102 | 139 | 10.60% | 87.4 | 71.0 | 16.4 |
Taking a look at the past four years, Darvish’s differential in 2013 ranks first among all starters since 2010. Darvish’s 2012 ranks 5th on the list:
| Year | Name | Team | IP | ERA- | FIP- | K% | Max | Min | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Yu Darvish | Rangers | 52.2 | 62 | 56 | 39.00% | 93.0 | 66.9 | 26.1 |
| 2010 | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 191.2 | 93 | 81 | 20.90% | 91.5 | 67.3 | 24.2 |
| 2012 | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 149.2 | 94 | 90 | 20.20% | 91.6 | 67.6 | 24.0 |
| 2011 | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 188 | 116 | 104 | 18.30% | 91.5 | 68.3 | 23.2 |
| 2012 | Yu Darvish | Rangers | 191.1 | 89 | 74 | 27.10% | 92.7 | 70.9 | 21.8 |
| 2010 | Randy Wolf | Brewers | 215.2 | 104 | 121 | 15.20% | 88.3 | 66.9 | 21.4 |
| 2012 | A.J. Griffin | Athletics | 82.1 | 77 | 95 | 19.10% | 89.7 | 68.5 | 21.2 |
| 2011 | Randy Wolf | Brewers | 212.1 | 96 | 111 | 14.80% | 88.4 | 67.6 | 20.8 |
| 2013 | A.J. Griffin | Athletics | 51.2 | 88 | 110 | 18.40% | 89.1 | 68.3 | 20.8 |
| 2011 | Roy Oswalt | Phillies | 139 | 96 | 89 | 15.70% | 91.5 | 70.8 | 20.7 |
| 2011 | Sean O’Sullivan | Royals | 58.1 | 177 | 148 | 7.00% | 92.0 | 71.3 | 20.7 |
| 2012 | Randy Wolf | – – – | 157.2 | 142 | 121 | 14.90% | 88.6 | 68.3 | 20.3 |
| 2012 | Nathan Eovaldi | – – – | 119.1 | 111 | 108 | 14.80% | 94.3 | 74.5 | 19.8 |
| 2012 | R.A. Dickey | Mets | 233.2 | 72 | 87 | 24.80% | 83.0 | 63.2 | 19.8 |
| 2010 | Jered Weaver | Angels | 224.1 | 76 | 76 | 25.80% | 90.1 | 70.5 | 19.6 |
| 2010 | Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 230.1 | 62 | 74 | 23.40% | 93.5 | 74.0 | 19.5 |
| 2010 | Roy Oswalt | – – – | 211.2 | 69 | 83 | 23.10% | 92.6 | 73.2 | 19.4 |
| 2011 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 233.1 | 63 | 67 | 27.20% | 93.2 | 73.9 | 19.3 |
| 2010 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 204.1 | 76 | 82 | 25.00% | 92.5 | 73.2 | 19.3 |
| 2010 | Jeremy Guthrie | Orioles | 209.1 | 90 | 104 | 13.70% | 92.6 | 73.3 | 19.3 |
| 2012 | Brandon Beachy | Braves | 81 | 51 | 90 | 21.30% | 91.3 | 72.1 | 19.2 |
| 2012 | Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 192.2 | 96 | 104 | 18.80% | 91.0 | 71.8 | 19.2 |
| 2012 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 227.2 | 67 | 78 | 25.40% | 93.0 | 73.9 | 19.1 |
| 2013 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 55.2 | 44 | 75 | 26.70% | 92.5 | 73.5 | 19.0 |
| 2010 | Zack Greinke | Royals | 220 | 100 | 79 | 19.70% | 93.4 | 74.4 | 19.0 |
Just eye-balling these lists it would appear that larger differentials in velocity are associated with better performance (i.e. ERA-, FIP-, K%). In fact, a pitchers velocity differential is significantly correlated with their K% (.167), HR/FB (.167), ERA- (.158), FIP- (.144), and IFFB% (.131). If we break starters up into various percentiles — based on the differential between their fastest and slowest pitches — we can better see the difference in their performance (weighted by innings pitched):
| Metric | 90th P-tile | 75th P-tile | 25th P-tile |
|---|---|---|---|
| ERA- | 90 | 92 | 100 |
| FIP- | 92 | 93 | 100 |
| HR/FB | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.4% |
| IFFB% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.7% |
| SwStr% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% |
| K% | 20.2% | 19.5% | 17.7% |
On average, starters with differentials at or above the 75th percentile (15.3 mph) produce adjusted ERAs and FIPs about 7-8 points lower than those at or below the 25th percentile (10.7). Greater differential pitchers also strike out about two percent more of the batters they face (19.5% vs. 17.7 K%).
Between the correlations and the percentile comparisons it’s clear that, while making a difference, overall change of pace isn’t a huge differentiator for pitchers. However, it does have some impact and right now no one is doing it better than Yu Darvish.
Bill leads Predictive Modeling and Data Science consulting at Gallup. In his free time, he writes for The Hardball Times, speaks about baseball research and analytics, has consulted for a Major League Baseball team, and has appeared on MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential as well as several MLB-produced documentaries. He is also the creator of the baseballr package for the R programming language. Along with Jeff Zimmerman, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @BillPetti.
Nothing Compares 2 Yu
I Would Die 4 YU
Yu make me feel like a natural woman
Stop with the puns Yu guys.
Smallest difference for a pitcher (not limiting yourself to starters) would, I’d imagine, belong to Mariano Rivera.
Yeah. Just thinking about this, it seems like being on either extreme (really big or really small differential) would lead to success. On the big end, you can succeed by keeping hitters off balance (lots of swings and misses). On the small end, you can succeed by making it difficult to distinguish your pitches (lots of weak contact).
Looks like so far this year Mo has thrown 244 pitches. The 233 classified as cutters have averaged 90.2 mph. The 11 classified as regular fastballs have averaged 90.5 mph. It seems quite unlikely that any pitcher with over 200 pitches would have them all classified the exact same by PITCHf/x (even if they *were* all the same), so I’d venture that your guess is probably pretty spot on.
FYI, Brooks Baseball now isolates “slow curve” as a separate pitch.
I know you were looking at averages and not max/min, but in 2010 Zack Greinke’s fastest fastball was 99.7 mph, and his slowest curveball was 59.2 mph. That’s over 40 mph of difference.
I just noticed, last year Greinke’s max was 96.1 and the min was 53.3. 42.8 mph!
I know his average curveball is thrown in the low 70s, but he’s still got the slow slow curve that he throws every now and then. It’s ridiculous.
In his start against Boston on May 5 of this season, Yu’s maximum fastball velocity was 98.18mph and his slowest curve measured just 53.67mph – a difference of 44.51mph.
*Data courtesy of brooksbaseball.net
Yu does that too (or pretty close). I haven’t looked up his min and max numbers, but within 1 at-bat (to Josh Hamilton), Yu threw a slow curve at 61 and a fastball at 98. I was pretty impressed.
Of *course* Yu does it. Dude, this whole article is about Yu. I’m just pointing out that Greinke has had a similar ability, which is downplayed somewhat by using averages as the author did.
To be fair, Greinke was part of an informal contest in Milwaukee to see who could throw the slowest pitch
http://www.totalprosports.com/2012/08/09/randy-wolf-brewers-slow-49-mph-curveball-pitch-video/
Eephus!
Billingsly’s 2nd, 3rd and 4th is pretty impressive too!
Was offered Yu for Trumbo + O. Taveras in a 10 team mixed dynasty league with 5 farm players. Im sorely lacking in Ks and have a decent OF, but does Taveras’ have too much upside?
No. His upside may be the value Darvish is already providing. Too much risk with unproven prospects. Take the deal and run. Even considering pitchers being more risky that is still a deal I do.