Yusmeiro Petit’s Invisiball
Coming into this spring, Yusmeiro Petit didn’t have a roster spot locked down with the Giants. David Huff was ready to be the long man, and he started the spring off better than Petit. Manager Bruce Bochy showed confidence in his righty and eventually the team made what looks to be the right decision. Though only a little has changed about Petit since his early days in terms of his fastball command and four-seam/curve/change arsenal, perhaps Bochy saw what the hitters weren’t seeing so well: Petit has an invisiball.
“He knows how to pitch. He’s really hitting his spots and hits both sides of the plate with all his pitches,” manager Bruce Bochy said. “He’s a guy we can count on.” — Alex Pavlovic
When you find a pitcher like this — he’s been waived once and released twice — there are usually a few things that have to come together.
For one, you probably have to make some changes. And the Giants did, with Dave Righetti improving Petit’s curveball. Though he’d always had the pitch, under the Giants’ tutelage, he firmed up the curve. It now goes two miles per hour faster and has two inches less drop than it used to, which makes it look a bit like a big slider. And now it has the best whiff rate on any starter’s curveball in baseball.
That might be because it’s a slider. Petit admitted Sunday night after the Giants’ game five victory that Righetti didn’t change the grip on his curveball. He changed the shape of it. Now Petit comes over the top and drags down a little more for a 12-to-6 curve against lefties, and comes around the side a little more for his frisbee curve against righties. Yeah, he admitted, it’s sort of a slider. Check out what looks like two different breaking pitches that are called curves by PITCHf/x algorithm below. On the scatter plot, you’ll see the x- and y- movement, and the color of the bubbles represents their velocity.
In order to find a Petit, you probably also have to value a skill that’s not always the first thing scouts look for. Petit’s fastball still has difficulty cracking 90, but he has plus-plus control and some ride to his fastball. Not one of his pitches has a ball rate over 35% for his career. Phil Hughes had the best walk rate in baseball this year. He had two pitches with a ball rate over 35%. Petit also gets an inch more rise on his fastball than average, an aspect that’s related positively to more infield fly ball rates — his 4.8% pop-up rate is well above the 3.7% league average for his career.
And then you also have to look for things that other people don’t see. Except that’s not totally fair. Some people did say that Petit’s delivery could be to his advantage. Jeffrey Paternostro on Amazin Avenue wrote up Petit in 2011, and a few key words can serve as harbingers. The “unorthodox motion that Petit used to befuddle minor league bats” might have just been a “funky delivery” that wouldn’t work against majors, or maybe there was something more there. After all, Paternostro pointed to one great quote from Baseball America on Petit that now rings very true.
“I just can’t hit him. You just can’t pick the ball up off him.” –Red Sox outfielder Brandon Moss
Ask around the clubhouse, and they know there’s something different about his delivery. Javier Lopez agreed the pitcher “has that deception and kind of jumps at the plate.” Tim Hudson said the arm motion is a little different, but every pitch comes out of the same spot. There’s agreement he has deception; how that deception is achieved was still a mystery.
Then I asked Andrew Susac, the Giants’ backup catcher, what it was in particular about Petit’s delivery that was hard to pick up. “He picks the ball up late,” Susac said, which is something you’ll often hear about guys with deception. But there was more: “He leads with his elbow and leaves his wrist back until the last moment.”
Let’s see that in motion:
Do you see it? See how the ball shows, then disappears, and then shows again in a new spot? Look at these three stills, in order, with only one or two frames taken away for contrast:
What happened to the ball? His elbow happened.
Sure, Petit doesn’t have much velocity. The Giants focused on what he did have — fastball command and a good change. And the coaching staff worked on what Petit didn’t have by improving his curve. But it was also what batters couldn’t see that ended up making Petit what we see today.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Nice!
Eno your articles with the mix of analysis and player perspectives have been fantastic.
Crawford breaking towards second during the delivery can’t hurt Petit’s deception level either.
Petit has been such a positive for the Giants this year, likely the same value as Panik at second base. If the Giants can retain Pablo, the future looks bright.
I would say, if they keep Sandoval there’ll be a big financial pressure on the Giants that will put them into some ‘tipping point’ territory with their operations model and may therefore prevent them from addressing their near-term needs (in the OF, at SP – which, aside from MadBum, is awfully freaking old – and at LOOGY) outside their organization … which in turn increases the chances of some sort of systemic or category breakdown.
Bear in mnind that the Giants made two huge long-term commitments over the last winter: the contracts to Pence and Lincecum. Each was risky, and one has already shown a lot of evidence of the risk coming to fruition. Plus they’ve made less obvious long-term commitments to the most core engine of their team in Posey and Bumgarner, which will get ungraded significantly on a near-annual basis.
For SF to re-sign Sandoval at anything reasonably approximating his free-agent value will represent a significant departure from the model the operation has adhered to thru, certainly as Bonds’retirement approached and to some significant extent since Sabean was put in charge.
Uh Lincecum a long term commitment? 2 years …
His salary is on the books for 2015, isn’t it?
Most baseball fans do not consider 2 years to be a “long term” commitment. It is, in fact, over at the end of 2015, one year from now, hardly a long term commitment in baseball terms (from an accounting perspective, anything beyond one year is long-term).
If that is long term, then you need to include Hudson’s two year contract too, $12M is not pocket change either.
In addition, the playoffs generally supply extra revenues that they can use to bulge the payroll in 2015 some. Plus, between Romo and Morse, that’s $15M coming off the books, potentially (probably, Romo probably wants to join Dodgers – boyhood team – and old buddy Wilson, or sign as closer somewhere; Morse probably replaced by platoon of Ishikawa/Perez or perhaps another LF FA signing but on the lower side) plus Sandoval’s original $8.25M for the season.
Then after the 2015 season, around $37M will come off the books with Scutaro’s, Hudson’s and Lincecum’s contracts ending, and I believe a number of the relievers as well. Though Belt and Crawford will be looking for and getting big arbitration raises to counter some of that.
I just don’t see the tipping point theory happening.
Besides which, I’m not convinced the Giants are going to sign Sandoval to a 5 year, $100M contract anyway. That’s way out of kilter with the market for good 3Bmen, Sandoval has not hit as well as either Wright or Zimmerman when they got their deals, and to pay him more for producing less, I just don’t see that happening (or at least don’t want to see that happening).
I’m putting him in the Brian Wilson category, they wouldn’t mind getting him back at fair market value, but everyone is way off on Sandoval’s salary (much like they were on Lincecum’s when he was up for arbitration).
I’m still not convinced that anyone will pay him that much. Look at his declining OPS over the past four seasons. Does any team want to pay a hitter who can’t hit .800 OPS nor can hit LHP for much $20M? Does Howard bring up any bells for anyone? Pablo is much more athletic, but he hasn’t topped 800 OPS in 4 seasons now.
Oh $15M in reliever’s salary is up after 2015, but the Giants probably resigns Casilla and Affeldt, but not sure about Lopez.
“For SF to re-sign Sandoval at anything reasonably approximating his free-agent value will represent a significant departure from the model the operation has adhered to”
Uh, have you seen how Sabean operates? He LOVES re-signing known quantities/guys the Giants already have over question marks in players he’s not intimately familiar with and he’s often happy to overpay, especially after an especially good season (not jinxing tonight, but hopefully you get what I’m saying). There’s so many examples, Pence, Lincecum, Huff, Scutaro, and those are just recent ones off the top of my head. I don’t think Pablo is quite worth what he’s been asking for (5 years/$100 million at least IIRC), but there’s no question in my mind that Sabes is at LEAST seriously considering paying it, if he hasn’t drawn up the contract already.
If the G had not dug themselves out of the hole in Game 4, all his skill would have been for naught. I got pilloried for suggesting that he starts Games 1 and 5, but really it was a shame to lose two games (almost three) without him on the mound. I am sure Boch is underutilizing him. Still there is hope that he starts a Game 7, with Bumgarner probably good for two innings of middle relief. It’s Mad and Yus and pray for rain (this being California, you pray for rain regardless).
I’ve been waiting for Yusmeiro since 2005, when he put up a huge, huge season at Double-A Binghamton. He helped us get Carlos Delgado, so no regrets losing him … just happy to see a guy work hard, stick around, and make it.
I wonder if pitcher’s ever intentionally hide the ball behind their head like this? Seems like a worthwhile skill!
I love the article but I disagree mildly about Petit not having a spot locked down.
While the Giants did not say he had a spot, Bochy noted that his 2013 performance would be a strong factor in whether he wins a spot or not, and as you noted, while Huff did do better than Petit, Petit still got a spot in the bullpen. That meant to me that Petit pretty much had a spot, barring a severe implosion, much like Brian Wilson did previously, having a job all but locked up but then having a horrible spring.
Just my opinion, and a mild objection, for to your point, he did not have it sewn up per official statements.
I reread your article, and it is still great analysis, thanks for the great article!
Amazing, per ZiPS, that his ERA has tended to be much over his FIP and xFIP. Perhaps that is why the Giants have decided that he’s better for them in his long relief role than in the rotation. Still, love having him on the team!
Happy Holidays!