Archive for January, 2006

Daily Graphing – Jeff Weaver

Since the Dodgers and Jeff Weaver were unable to reach a contract agreement, Weaver will now seek to join a different team. After a uncharacteristically horrible season with the Yankees in 2003, he managed to get his career back on track with the Dodgers the past two seasons. Last season he was arguably at his best going 14-11 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Let's take a closer look.

K9

As far as strikeouts go he's been remarkably consistent with perhaps a slight (very slight) upward trend. In 2005 he had a career high strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) of 6.31. While it's nothing to rave about, it will certainly get the job done considering how few people he walked last year.

BB9

To go along with his career high in strikeouts, he managed to push his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) to a career low 1.73. Now, that is something to rave about as it was the 12th best in baseball among starting pitchers. That brought his strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) to a very good 3.65. So if his strikeouts and walks were at their best in 2005, how come he saw an increase in ERA?

HR9

Quite simply, he gave up 35 home runs which tied him for the 2nd most in baseball. He gave up at least one home run in all but 11 of his 35 starts. He's been historically excellent at keeping the ball in the park with his highest home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) in his previous three seasons being 8.3%. I find it particularly odd that his walks suddenly dropped while his home runs suddenly spiked. While this may be pure coincidence, it's definitely something to be aware of.

If everything were to click for Jeff Weaver (almost last year) he could have a really great season, but that's the problem with Weaver isn't it? Things haven't clicked yet. That's not to say next season won't be the year he finally puts everything together, but I can't help but feel there's something fishy going on with his walks and home runs. It doesn't appear he has a whole lot of downside as he'll be three years removed from the Yankee debacle. Teams can expect another solid season from him, but they probably shouldn't count on anything special either.


Split Graphs

I'm pleased to announce that Righty/Lefty and Home/Away split graphs are now available for the 2002-2005 seasons. I've pulled two graphs that I thought illustrated their usefulness. The first graph here is Dontrelle Willis' strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9). Just look at how freakishly dominant he is against left-handed batters!

SK9

Then I pulled up Jeromy Burnitz's isolated power (ISO) home/away splits to take a look at how much better he was playing at Coors Field. Notice how his cumulative ISO with the Cubs was quite similar to his 2004 road stats.

SISO

These were two of the more obvious examples, but I hope you'll find these graphs are much easier to take a quick glance at than traditional split data. The other advantage of these graphs is you can see multiple season split data side-by-side. Enjoy and if you have any suggestions or notice any bugs you can discuss it in the forum or send a feedback form!


Daily Graphing – Corey Patterson

Apparently the Orioles were close to acquiring Corey Patterson from the Cubs for a minor leaguer but now it appears that several teams are in the running. In 2004 Corey Patterson returned from a torn ACL to hit an impressive 24 home runs while stealing 32 bases. Last year he hardly lived up to his 2004 numbers as he only hit 13 home runs with 15 stolen bases. He was even sent down to AAA in mid-July to work on shortening his swing to help him make better (any) contact. He returned to the majors a month later and showed no improvement, finishing off the season with a .175 batting average. Talk about ending the season on a low note. Let's see if there's any hope of a rebound in 2006.

BBP

It really did look like he was learning to take a walk in the first half of the 2004 season but he reverted to his old ways in the second half and was even worse in 2005. Unfortunately, he strikes out a good deal too making his walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) one of the worst in baseball.

BBK

Furthermore his isolated power (ISO) was down significantly last year. His home runs per fly ball was down from 13.5% to 11.6% which isn't that much of a decrease, but his doubles and triples took much larger hits. Most of this was the result of poor line drive percentage of only 17%.

ISO

It seems highly unlikely that Corey Patterson will magically develop plate discipline next season and become a reliable batter. Apparently the Cubs had been trying to shorten his swing for quite some time and he was unwilling to make the necessary changes. Typically batters that exhibit such poor plate discipline do not show significant improvement later in their career, but it's probably too early to write him off at only 26 years of age. It's really too bad because if he were to just become a little more patient he'd have 30 HR/30 SB potential.


Daily Graphing – Ryan Franklin

The Phillies have signed Ryan Franklin to a one year, 2.6 million dollar deal. Ryan Franklin has been around a little while now (5 seasons) and he's been less than good. He also holds the dubious distinction of being one of the players suspended for steroid use. Last season he was at his worst, going 8-15 with an ERA over 5. Let's see if there's any hope he'll do better next year.

K9

For starters his strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) are sitting at a pretty bad 4.4. He's only once had his K/9 above 5 and that was in his rookie season when he pitched just under 80 innings. He's gone through various peaks and valleys with his K/9 (never really topping 6 at his best) over the past four years, but I'd say there's nothing here to suggest that he's capable of doing a whole lot better. The only pitchers that can get away with a K/9 this low are the ones that issue very few walks such as Carlos Silva, Jon Garland, and Paul Byrd.

BB9

Ryan Franklin does not fall into this category. In fact his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) have been heading in the wrong direction the past couple of years. Even if he does manage to reverse the trend, it seems unlikely it will decrease enough for him to be an effective pitcher.

LDGBFB

Had enough bad news yet? Here's a little more: He's a fly ball pitcher. Seattle's Safeco Field is one of the better parks at limiting home runs. Only 9% of the fly balls are home runs compared to Citizen's Bank Park's 13%. He's never been great at keeping the ball in the park anyway and he won't be any better playing half his games in Philly.

HR9

I have some additional concerns about his batting average on balls in play (BABIP), but he's historically been below the league average so I'll hold my tongue. Let me just say it would be really scary if he were to ever have an “unlucky” season. If you haven't already guessed, I think you can expect more of the same from Ryan Franklin next season.


Daily Graphing – C.C. Sabathia

It seems like over the past couple season the name C.C. Sabathia and burnout candidate have gone hand in hand and with good reason. Since entering the league in 2001 at only 20 years of age he's thrown nearly 16,000 pitches which definitely gives him one of the heavier workloads in the past 5 years. He's handled it quite well and has actually never been on the disabled list having only suffered a few minor elbow and shoulder injuries. Last year he had one of his best seasons to date going 15-10 with an ERA just over 4. That may not sound that great, but after July he was 9-1 with a 2.24 ERA. How likely is it that C.C. Sabathia will pick up where he left off in 2006?

K9

For starters the decrease in his ERA was fueled by an excellent strikeout per 9 innings (K/9) of 8.7 during the final two months of the season. He's shown late season surges like this before in 2003 and to some extent 2004, but never quite like this one. If we break down his K/9 a little further by right-handed and left-handed batters it becomes quite obvious what happened.

SK9

It looks like he figured out how to strikeout left-handed batters while there wasn't so much improvement against right-handers. The increase is rather severe, but the sample size is also a little small as only 16% of the batters he faced were left-handed. However the consistency of the increase throughout the year makes me want to say that it wasn't entirely a fluke. The other area he showed improvement in was his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) which he managed to get down to a career low 2.8.

BB9

Everything seems to be headed in the right direction for C.C. Sabathia. His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and it looks like he really did show some good second half growth in 2005. It's also worth mentioning he took his groundball tendencies to new levels (mostly against left-handed batters, 3.0 GB:FB). While I certainly wouldn't expect him to continue pitching at the level he did in August and September, there's no reason he can't improve upon his 2005 season. He's already a solid pitcher and has showed that at times he's definitely capable of being an excellent pitcher. He'll only be 26 years old next season and maybe a little consistency is on its way.


Daily Graphing – Wily Mo Pena

With the departure of Sean Casey from Cincinatti, it looks like Adam Dunn will be moved to first base leaving a full time opening in the outfield for Wily Mo Pena. Wily Mo Pena has been unable to work his way through the minor league system due to contractual issues and was thrown into the Major Leagues in 2002 at only 20 years of age. Since then he has yet to play a full season, but has shown great power potential by hitting 26 home runs in just 364 at bats in 2004, and 19 home runs in 311 at bats last year. Now that he's all but guaranteed a full time outfield spot, is a 40 home run season in the cards for 2006?

ISO

If you look at his isolated power (ISO), he was nearly off the charts to start the 2005 season, but came back to earth after a number of nagging injuries (quadriceps, knee, wrist). While his ISO is definitely within the top 20% of all batters in 2005, his HR/FB is quite spectacular at just over 30%, the 3rd highest in baseball. Unfortunately, there's another stat that Willy Mo Pena ranks very highly in; strikeouts.

KP

I guess “very highly” is a bit of a understatement, he's number 1 (or dead last, depending on how you look at it) in strikeout percentage (K%). He actually got worse when just a year ago he struck out in 32% of his at bats as opposed to his 37% in 2005. His walk percentage (BB%) isn't much to write home about either, as he only walks in just over 6% of his plate appearances. He did however show improvement in his walks towards the end of the season which seems to have carried over into the Dominican Winter League where he had 13 walks and 19 strikeouts in 80 at bats.

BBP

Because of his tremendous power, Willy Mo Pena might be able to come close to 40 home runs next season despite his awful plate discipline, yet I think somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 home runs is probably a bit more realistic. I don't think his sub-par batting average of .254 is likely to improve (and might even be worse) unless he shows some major improvement in his strikeouts. For a 24 year old with little minor league experience he's done pretty well for himself in the majors so far. His numbers aren't so far off from NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard, who's about 2 years older.