Yesterday, it came out that Andruw Jones would like to be traded from the Los Angeles Dodgers. After he hit .158/.256/.249 in his first season in La-La land, the feeling is certainly mutual. His ridiculously horrible performance earned him a -1.56 WPA/LI in just 238 plate appearances, ranking 4th worst in the majors despite only playing about two months worth of baseball. It was one of the worst seasons we’ve seen in a long, long time.

However, thanks to the two year deal the Dodgers gave Jones last winter, they still owe him approximately $22 million, covering his $15 million 2009 salary and the $7 million they still owe him as part of his signing bonus. Considering how poorly he played in 2008, and the general negative feelings about his work ethic, it wouldn’t be easy to move him even if he was only owed half that amount. Finding a team that wants to take a shot on him, and is willing to pay part of his salary, is going to be a challenge.

However, the name value will probably still pique the interest of at least a few GMs. Is there anything left to be interested in? Can we chalk up his ’08 results to just a lot of bad luck?

In a word, no.

Last year, Jones significantly down on the amount of strikes he swung at (going from 71% to 62%), but despite being more selective, he actually made less contact (72% in ’07, 69% last year). That’s a bad combination – if you start letting more strikes go by, you should theoretically increase your contact rate, because you’ve hopefully reduced the amount of hard to hit pitches you’re swinging at. Jones, apparently, was staring at the ones he could hit, and still flailing miserably at the ones he couldn’t.

This resulted in a drastic jump in his strikeout rate, which ballooned to 36.4%. That’s a K rate reserved for the swing-from-the-heels slugger types, such as Ryan Howard and Jack Cust. You can survive with a 36% strikeout rate if you’re hitting the crap out of the ball when you make contact, but Jones didn’t do that either.

Hid line drive percentage was just 13.4%, and he managed only 12 extra base hit all season. His ISO of .091 would fit in well with David Eckstein’s career marks.

And, just for fun, he failed to steal a base for the first time in his career.

Add it all up, and in 2008, Jones was something like a compilation of Ryan Howard‘s contact abilities, David Eckstein‘s power, and Jack Cust‘s speed, mixed with Nomar Garciaparra‘s health, and Carlos Beltran’s contract.

Good luck trading that, Ned.

Earlier this week we saw that the class of free agent rightfielders was quite small, at just six players, two-thirds of whom have options on their contracts for 2009 likely to be picked up. Then, moving over to leftfield showed that there are several potent offensive threats, all of whom, well stink defensively and should not be playing leftfield anymore. Today, our trip goes up the middle to centerfield, the much tougher defensive position in the outfield. Unfortunately, this year’s free agent class is not very impressive, so yes, the title to this post has sarcastic connotations.

Mike Cameron is the cream of the crop, so to speak, and is 36 years old. He played in 120 games for the Brewers this season, missing some time due to a performance enhancing related suspension, but was worth just about 1.5 wins above an average hitter. He posted an impressive .243/.331/.477 slash line, complete with 25 home runs and a career high ISO of .234. In the field, Cameron ranked 8th amongst centerfielders at +8 in John Dewan’s system. He has a 10 mm option for 2009 but can be bought out for $750,000. I would tend to think Cameron’s option will be exercised as he was productive both offensively and defensively and would be available for the entire season.

The next best free agent centerfielder, via 2008 WPA/LI, is the 39-yr old Jim Edmonds, who was worth just over one win above an average hitter. In 111 games split between San Diego and Chicago, Edmonds hit .235/.343/.479. His .244 ISO was closer to his power prime with the Cardinals, and his walk rate rose above the percentages from the previous two seasons. He was always lauded for his fielding and is even considered by some to be the best defensive centerfielder in the last few decades, but this is no longer the case. His +- system numbers have drastically declined since 2006, going from a +2, to a -11, to a -26 this season. He handled righties quite well and the declining defense was not exploited as much in Wrigley Field, so he could still be productive for at least another year, but he should be used in a platoon as opposed to full time starting duty.

After Cameron and Edmonds, we have Mark Kotsay, Corey Patterson, and Scott Podsednik, none of whom should be starting regularly. Kotsay and Podsednik are both 33 years old, but had seasons going in different directions. Kotsay was slightly better offensively, with a .276/.329/.403 line, compared to Patterson’s putrid .205/.238/.344, but Patterson was tied with Cameron at +8 while Kotsay registered a -16. Both were below average offensively, with Kotsay posting a WPA/LI of -0.85 with Patterson at -1.63.

I do not understand why Patterson is still given regular playing time, but hopefully this year was the final straw. Even his base-stealing has gotten worse, going just 14/23. If there is anything positive to take away from his season it would be that his strikeout rate dropped, but he rarely walks and rarely hits. A defensive replacement scenario would make sense, or a pinch-running capacity, but nothing more.

Podsednik only played 93 games this season for the Rockies, posting a .253/.322/.333 line. Scottie Pod has a -0.45 WPA/LI but a +3 in centerfield. In the previous two seasons, he played leftfield and posted a +8 and +7, respectively. His base-stealing has dropped off recently as well, meaning he is likely to be better suited for a defensive replacement role than a full-time starter. The pickings are slim in centerfield this year, especially given the likelihook of Cameron’s option being exercised. Perhaps we will see some trades this offseason or some prospects promoted to full time duty.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Fifteen: Minnesota Twins

With the trade of Johan Santana away from Minnesota and the trade of Miguel Cabrera to Detroit, Minnesota’s chances were mostly dismissed in the face of Cleveland’s defending crown and Detroit’s vamped up offense. Ironically, it was Chicago that proved to be the ultimate dark horse in the AL Central. Nonetheless, the Twins made a strong run for the division title backed by a remarkable 34-18 record in games decided by five runs or more.

It certainly wasn’t from anything sustainable as the Twins offense ranked just 15th and run prevention just 21st. Although 15th doesn’t come off too impressive, it was a big step up from 2007 as Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer both took steps forward and Nick Punto managed to upgrade from being one of the worst hitters in baseball with his .210/.291/.271 line to a serviceable .283/.343/.381 in 2008. Those three combined to add about sixty runs over 2007.

They would need those sixty runs because the pitching, absent Johan Santana, would slide backward a bit. The bullpen also lost the significant contribution provided by Pat Neshak last season and Matt Guerrier went from a strikeout-to-walk ratio over three to under two and also saw increased home runs allowed.

Francisco Liriano was supposed to be a cover for Santana’s departure, but his long rehab stint in the minors kept him from adding too many innings to the major league rotation. Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey were useful additions though and portend good things for Minnesota’s future.

Yesterday, we looked at Mark Ellis‘ new contract and how it makes it likely that he’ll end up being the best bargain of the 2009 free agent crop. Well, let’s take a look back a year later and see who (so far) has been the best signing from last winter. Here are the contenders:

Mike Cameron: 1 year at $7 million with $10 million team option for 2009

Signed to provide some outfield defense at a bit of power, Cameron exceeded expectations for the Brewers, having a terrific season at age 35 and helping push Milwaukee into the playoffs. Injuries and a suspension limited him to just 120 games, but that makes his 1.42 WPA/LI all the more impressive when you consider he racked it up in just 508 plate appearances. When you combine average to above average center field defense with a bat that’s worth 1.5 wins over an average hitter, you have a +4 win player. Based on Cameron’s 2008 performance, he was worth between $15 and $20 million on the free market, or more than twice what he actually made. Toss in the team option that now looks like a no-brainer, and Cameron was truly one of the best signings of the winter.

Milton Bradley: 1 year at $5.5 million

Like Cameron, Bradley missed about a quarter of his team’s games, but his excellence when he did play makes up for the lack of quantity. He racked up 3.33 WPA/LI in 510 plate appearances as one of the American League’s best hitters. Because he DH’d, he didn’t offer much defensive value, but he still comes out as a +4 win player compared to a replacement level designated hitter. Like Cameron, teams should have paid about $15 to $20 million for Bradley’s 2008 season, when he made a fraction of that. Even if Texas doesn’t re-sign him for 2009, they’ll pick up a couple of draft picks as compensation for him leaving, and get the benefit of an excellent season and some long term help for the franchise.

Kyle Lohse: 1 year at $4.25 million

Lohse was the clear bargain of the pitching crop, being one of the last to sign and putting up 200 innings with a 3.78 ERA. Considering how expensive pitching is on the free market, the Cardinals saved a ton of money by forgoing the long term contract types and dumpster diving with Lohse. If we assume that a replacement level starting pitcher would allow approximately 6.0 runs per game, that’s about 133 runs allowed over a 200 inning season. Lohse allowed 88 runs in his 200 innings, a 45 run advantage, which works out to about 4.5 wins. We have to adjust that down a bit, however, because replacement level starters don’t throw 200 innings per year (they get replaced by higher quality relievers), so we factor about half a win out. That puts Lohse right at +4 wins.

Interestingly enough, Cameron, Bradley, and Lohse all offered up very similar win totals for their respective clubs. Cameron was the most expensive, but also offers a 2009 team option which has quite a bit of value. Bradley will either re-sign with Texas or net them compensation for leaving, while Lohse’s performance fooled the Cardinals into giving him a brutal 4 year, $41 million extension. You could make an argument for any of the three, but I’m going to go with Mike Cameron as the 2008 free agent bargain of the year, since he will continue to provide value in 2009 for the Brewers.

The Graduate: Gregor Blanco | Born: December 1983 | Outfielder

Gregor Blanco was hardly a heralded prospected coming into the 2008 season; he did not even make Baseball America’s Top 30 Braves prospect list. The Venezuelan, who signed at age 16, paid his dues in the minors and did not make his debut until this past season when he appeared in 144 games for the Braves. Blanco is going to have to use his legs more – he slugged just .309 with an ISO of .058 – if he is going to continue to play regularly. He needs to steal more than the 13 bases he swiped in 2008. One of the most promising things about Blanco is that, as a player with zero power, he understands the importance of getting on base and he walked 74 times (14.7%).

The Riser: Tyler Flowers | Born: January 1986 | Catcher

The Braves liked Tyler Flowers so much that the organization drafted him twice – in the 27th round of the 2004 draft and in the 33rd round of the 2005 draft. He finally relented and became a Brave in 2006 as a draft-and-follow. He has a ton of potential with the bat with a three-year career line of .291/.400/.488. He posted a .206 ISO in High-A ball this year and has tremendous power potential. Like Blanco, Flowers also understands the importance of getting on base and walked 98 times (19.2%) this season. Defensively, the 6’4” backstop is a good receiver but is still learning to call a game. He threw out 43 of 155 base stealers (28%).

The Tumbler: Jordan Schafer | Born: September 1986 | Outfielder

By now, we likely all know that Jordan Schafer made some bad choices and paid for it by making a late start to his 2008 season. He struggled through the rest of the season and never truly looked comfortable at the plate and was inconsistent. He hit .269/.378/.471 in 297 Double-A at-bats, but showed some power potential with an ISO of .202. Schafer is attempting to make up for lost time this winter by playing in the Mexican winter league, where he is currently hitting .343/.395/.400 in 35 at-bats.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Zeke Spruill | Born: September 1989 | Right-Handed Pitcher

There have been five players in Major League history named Zeke, and Ezekiel Spruill is looking to become the six. Drafted 70th overall in 2008, Spruill went 7-0 in his debut in the Rookie League. He pitched 40 innings and allowed 42 hits with rates of 4.00 BB/9 and 7.20 K/9. He did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and allowed just one home run.

The ’09 Sleeper: Erik Cordier | Born: February 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Erik Cordier was one of the Royals’ brightest, young pitching prospects before being derailed by Tommy John surgery. The Royals sold low on Cordier and shipped him to the Braves for Tony Pena Jr., who became the starting shortstop for the club in 2007 but was brutal in 2008. Cordier missed all of 2007 (and 2005 due to a knee injury) but returned to the mound this season for 11 starts. He was not overly sharp, but his fastball was around 92-93 mph (He was touching 98 mph before the injury) and his secondary pitches were not sharp (He showed a plus change-up before the injury). With another year separating him from the surgery, Cordier could be poised for a breakout 2009 season.

Up Next: The Kansas City Royals

The World Series starts tomorrow, and for the first time in, well, forever, I actually care about the outcome. Sure, the Phillies participated in the series back in 1993, but it is very hard to understand the severity of such a situation as an 8-yr old. Heck, back then I even thought that batting average was a sufficient evaluative barometer. Though this series will feature Joe Buck and Tim McCarver in the broadcasting booth, my eyes will still be glued to the screen each night, hoping that the team I devote so much of my energy to can reward me in the biggest way possible. The Phillies will have to be sharp, sharper than they have been thus far, in order to walk away victorious, but there are a few key specifics they need to hone in on in order to be successful.

First, even though this may be a cry on deaf ears, Charlie Manuel really needs to separate Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The specific batting order does not matter that much, but having them back to back is literally just asking for Trever Miller, JP Howell, or perhaps even David Price to enter into a high leverage situation with the goal of neutralizing the heart of the Phillies order. Especially given Howard’s recent struggles, why not go with Utley-Burrell-Howard? At the very least it splits the order up, meaning that the first six could be Rollins (S), Werth (R), Utley (L), Burrell (R), Howard (L), Victorino (S), or the same incarnation with Werth and Victorino reversed.

Next, for the games played in Tampa, they will need to pick their defensive poison between Ryan Howard at 1B or Pat Burrell in LF. Considering Burrell is replaced each night with a better defender, it is more than likely that he will serve as the designated hitter come tomorrow. This means that either Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, or Geoff Jenkins can join the outfield. Dobbs is not a natural outfielder, but he has seen time there for the Phillies over the past two seasons, and is the most consistently productive of the three. Getting him in the game could prove to be very important.

Another key aspect will be to have a short leash on Jamie Moyer. Jamie has a remarkable season, regardless of how old he is, but his two playoff starts have been abysmal. He may have been unlucky, and just an inch lower from striking out Blake DeWitt, ending the first inning of Game 3 against the Dodgers down 2-0 as opposed to 5-0, but if Moyer is not getting calls from the umpire, or his location is poor, he is not going to be effective. JA Happ has proven himself capable enough, and while he should not begin the game already warming up in the bullpen, if Moyer starts struggling, Manuel needs to make a move quickly.

Lastly, for now, Charlie Manuel needs to avoid going crazy with micro-managing the bullpen. The Phillies relief corps has been the best in the bigs this season, but Manuel has a tendency to do what he thinks is the correct way to go about doing things as opposed to, say, the right thing. If Cole Hamels is cruising through six innings and is at, or below, 90 pitches, there is no reason to bring in Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre, or JC Romero. Likewise, yes, Brad Lidge has not yet blown a save this season, but if any of these starters is cruising through eight innings, and can come back out for the ninth, do not waste him or make him throw more pitches than is necessary.

Finally, while this is not necessarily something the Phillies organization can control, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins need to step up, big-time. Rollins did not have tremendous statistics in either series, but he did record timely hits, which more than helped the Phillies reach the World Series. Howard really only has one meaningful hit the post-season, racking up statistics in relatively meaningless situations. If he does not start producing, given that Manuel is not going to separate he and Utley, it gives Chase no much less protection and virtually creates a black hole. He was able to knock the ball out of the park all year long, and he needs to continue to do so now, when it matters most.

This series might not get the ratings, but it is a very solid matchup of two of the best teams in baseball this year, and has the makings of providing some very entertaining games to watch.

This morning we took a look at the right fielders set to hit the free agent market, so now we will shift to the opposite side and examine this year’s class of free agent left fielders. There are significantly more pure left fielders, or players more suited to play left field than the amount mentioned earlier in right field, but only a few truly stand out. Wily Mo Pena is the youngest of the group while Moises Alou, who has hinted at retirement, is the elder statesman. The fourteen players are listed below, with their 2008 games played, slash line, and WPA/LI:

Name                 Age     G            Slash  WPA/LI
Wily Mo Pena          27    64   .205/.243/.267   -1.56
Adam Dunn             29   158   .236/.386/.513    3.06
Juan Rivera           30    89   .246/.282/.438   -0.62
Milton Bradley        31   126   .321/.436/.563    3.33
Pat Burrell           32   157   .250/.367/.507    2.77
Gabe Kapler           33    96   .301/.340/.498    1.34
Emil Brown            34   117   .244/.297/.386   -0.94
Fernando Tatis        34    92   .297/.369/.484    0.77
Jay Payton            36   127   .243/.291/.346   -1.61
Raul Ibanez           37   162   .293/.358/.479    1.58
Manny Ramirez         37   153   .332/.430/.601    6.10
Garret Anderson       37   145   .253/.325/.433    0.29
Luis Gonzalez         41   136   .261/.336/.413   -0.32
Moises Alou           42    15   .347/.389/.388    0.26

Pena has a 5 mm club option for 2009 as well as a 2 mm player option, and Anderson has a 14 mm option with a 3 mm buyout. If the Angels decide to exercise the options of both Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero, they will be spending 29 million dollars next season on aging, declining outfielders. Keeping Vlad around makes sense given he can still rake, but Anderson has lost a ton of productivity with the bat and is, at best, an average fielder. Buying him out for 3 million makes sense if they can find a nice upgrade.

At just 29 years old, Dunn has established himself as a durable and consistently productive offensive threat. He hit 40 home runs on the nose for the fourth straight season, and now has 40+ dingers in five straight years. His low .262 BABIP should regress a bit, meaning his line is more likely to be in line with 2007’s productivity. He and Burrell are three true outcome players, with Burrell being three years his elder. Both should land big contracts. From 2004-2008, Burrell’s OPS has ranged from .821-.902, with the lowest coming in that injury-plagued 2004 season. He and Dunn may be terrible defensively but put them in the DH spot and 30+ home runs with an OPS above .850 ain’t too shabby.

Milton Bradley served primarily as a DH in 2008, and despite an injury, was absolutely on fire, producing a .999 OPS. Unfortunately, this was largely built upon an unsustainably high .396 BABIP which is sure to regress. He has talent, as has always been the case, but not this much talent. He could find himself in the outfield of another team, but he seemed to fit in perfectly with the Rangers. Gabe Kapler is just 33 years old but feels like a 40-year old given the crazy turns his career has taken. In 96 games was a -2 in LF despite being +7 in CF, and put together an .838 OPS.

Fernando Tatis wanted to get back to the major leagues in order to earn enough money to build a church in his hometown. Not only did he earn the amount he desired, but he proved he could still produce at the highest level, smacking 11 home runs with an .853 OPS in under 100 games of work. He was also +3 in the field in left field. Jay Payton, on the other hand, should not be given a job this offseason. The 36-yr old has seen a decline in OPS of .749 to .637 from 2005-2008, decreasing each season. He is +6 in the field, but giving players like he and Kevin Millar significant playing time is exactly why the Baltimore Orioles have not been able to compete recently.

This brings us to our interesting 37-yr olds: Raul Ibanez and Manny Ramirez. Somehow, Ibanez has been around since 1996, producing quite nicely offensively, without becoming anywhere near a household name. He may be a horrid defender in recent years, but his offense has been consistent with OBP/SLG tandems in the last three years of: .358/.479, .351/.480, .353/.516. Manny, on the other hand, was worth over six wins above average this year and continued to show why he is one of the greatest hitters of all time. Scott Boras mentioned he may be seeking an iconic contract, along the lines of 5/150, which is absurd, but he definitely has at least a couple extremely productive seasons left in the tank. If he stays in the National League his numbers will look even better.

He didn’t like the in-your-face style of baseball along the East Coast, so it is unlikely he signs with the Yankees or Mets, but perhaps the Angels cut bait with Garret Anderson and offer Manny a 4/100 deal like he was originally seeking. The Phillies will have an opening in left field as well, assuming they cannot resign Pat Burrell, so somebody like Tatis or Kapler may be interesting options to platoon with Geoff Jenkins or Matt Stairs. Regardless, Emil Brown and Jay Payton should be avoided, and it is somewhat likely that Luis Gonzalez and Moises Alou will hang up their cleats.

And now the real fun begins – with the preliminary contests out of the way, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia are set to kick off the final matchup of the season, the 2008 World Series. Before this fall classic gets underway, let’s take a look at some of the keys to the series that won’t get covered by the big networks.

The Phillies whack lefties around pretty good.

If you just think of the Phillies as Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and a bunch of role players, this might seem counter-intuitive. However, it’s true – the Phillies are a significantly better offensive team against LHPs than RHPs. For the year, they hit .255/.330/.426 against right-handed pitching, compared to .257/.337/.464 against left-handed pitching. Part of this is because Utley hits southpaws pretty well, but they also have some good right-handed bats in Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth.

Because of that, it’s unlikely that last night’s hero, David Price, will be pitching in the 9th inning of too many World Series games. I think we’ll see a good bit of him going after Utley and Howard in late game situations, but Joe Maddon is smart enough to realize that Price isn’t the best pick against the good RH bats that Philly can run out there.

Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer both have reverse platoon splits.

Because both of Philadelphia’s left-handed starters have exceptional change-ups, they’re both tremendous against right-handed hitters. The change-up is the pitch that best neutralizes opposite-handed hitters, and Hamels and Moyer both feature change-ups as their out pitch. Over Moyer’s extensive career, LHBs have a 30 point OPS advantage. In Hamels much more brief time in the majors, LHBs have a 70 point OPS advantage.

This won’t matter as much in setting the line-ups (there’s almost no way Joe Maddon goes with the left-handed bats of Cliff Floyd or Gabe Gross, who have been strictly platooned for a good reason), but it does change the landscape of what we expect from the three key LH bats in the Rays line-up. Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, and Akinori Iwamura don’t hit lefties all that well, which is a pretty big reason why the Rays have struggled somewhat against southpaws this year. However, Hamels and Moyer aren’t your typical lefties, and there’s a decent chance that those three could outperform expectations when facing the two change-up masters.

Watch out for Fernando Perez.

Call it a hunch, but I think we might see a bit more of the speedy outfielder from the Rays who hasn’t been used as much more than a pinch-runner to date. With Gross struggling in the playoffs, don’t be surprised if the switch hitting Perez makes a start or two in order to maximize the defensive value in the outfield. The kid can really cover some ground, and he’s got a bit more pop in his bat than you might expect from looking at him.

Our look at free agents by position continues with a trip to right field, where there are just six notable players hitting the market this off-season. To make matters even more interesting, four of the six players have player, club, or mutual options for 2009, meaning the pickings are pretty slim. Now, of course, somebody playing center- or leftfield could always move over to the right if the need presents itself, but the six players below spent the majority of their time in right field this past season:

Name                 Age       G            Slash   WPA/LI
Bobby Abreu           35     156   .296/.371/.471     1.97
Brian Giles           38     147   .306/.398/.456     2.52
Ken Griffey Jr.       39     143   .249/.353/.424    -0.01
Vladimir Guerrero     33     143   .303/.365/.521     1.83
Jason Michaels        33     123   .224/.292/.360    -0.94
Brad Wilkerson        32     104   .220/.308/.326    -1.01

Giles has a 9 mm club option with a 3 mm buyout. Griffey, a 16.5 mm option with a 4 mm buyout. Guerrero has a 15 mm option with a 3 mm buyout, and Michaels has a 2.6 mm option. This leaves Abreu and Wilkerson as the only two “pure” rightfielders hitting the market when the world series ends. Griffey may retire, but if not, he should be used as a DH somewhere. Giles will likely return to the Padres, and I would be somewhat surprised if Guerrero was not a Halo next season.

Abreu is still a productive offensive player at 35 years of age, but the signs are pointing in the wrong direction. His walk rate was lower this year than in the past, and despite an ISO rise to .176 thanks to a “jump” to 20 home runs, his defense is getting considerably worse. He may have won a gold glove a few years back, but you better believe it was undeserved. He may have a nice arm in rightfield, but he was a -24 in the field this year and there is no evidence that this will improve. Anything longer than a 2-yr deal with an option for year three would be a mistake. Abreu has had a very nice career, but it is almost at its end.

Giles only hit 12 home runs this season, but in many ways produced an offensive season we may expect from Abreu: he hit for average, added some power (40 doubles), and reached base a ton. Even at 38 years old, his offense was worth over two and a half wins above an average player. He has been durable for quite some time, and his defense was exemplary this past season. At +20 plays above an average rightfielder, Giles was the second best in the field, and extremely solid offensively. Bringing him back for another season at 9 mm would be a steal.

Guerrero’s 1.83 WPA/LI was his lowest since 1998, and his aging is pretty evident while watching the Angels play. He can still rake and knock the ball all over the place, but his power has diminished a bit in recent years, he has become a slower runner due to injuries, and his outfield range has taken a hit. Now, over the last three years he has been either average or slightly below average in rightfield, so he is not like Abreu out there, but an unhealthy Vlad may not be worth the 15 million dollars he would be owed if his option is exercised. Still, I cannot see the Angels buying him out and risking him sign elsewhere, but if his injuries cannot get under control he will continue to lose value, and do so quite quickly.

Griffey’s WPA/LI pegged him as about a league average hitter in 2008, and his -17 in rightfield says he was well below average defensively. His OPS was the lowest since his rookie season, and despite managing 143 games played, his value seems to be primarily dependent upon veteran leadership and the halo effect. Griffey does not really have much left to prove, so my suggestion would be to hang up the cleats. He is nowhere near worth the 16.5 million dollars on his option, so it may be very wise to buy him out for 4 million and let another team take a chance.

This year’s class of rightfield free agents is not all that interesting given that 2/3 have options, but I would predict the following:

a) Abreu re-signs with Yankees at 2 yrs with a 3rd year option
b) Giles has his option exercised and returns to Padres
c) Griffey is bought out and either retires or latches on a smaller 1-yr deal elsewhere
d) Guerrero returns to the Angels
e) Michaels returns to the Pirates
f) Wilkerson is signed midway through the season by a National League team

Thoughts?

It’s official – not even Mark Ellis knows how valuable he is. Yesterday, he gave up free agency to re-sign with the A’s on a contract that guarantees him $11 million over two years. Not per year, total. $5.5 million per year, or basically the same contract that Octavio Dotel received last winter.

Now, Dotel’s a decent enough reliever, but Ellis is just so much more valuable than this. He’s the poster boy for just how undervalued defense is in today’s MLB economy. From 2006 to 2008, the Fielding Bible’s +/- system has ranked him at +13, +19, and +26 plays above an average defensive second baseman. He’s been one of the best defensive players at the position since getting to the big leagues, and his outstanding work with the glove has been one of the big reasons why the A’s have been so good at preventing runs from scoring while shuffling through no-name pitchers.

Going forward, we can project Ellis to be worth something like 15 runs above an average defensive second baseman. To contrast that with his offense, considering that most observers would say that he had a poor year with the bat (.233/.321/.373), he was worth about six runs less than a league average hitter this year. Even if we assumed that his offense wasn’t going to rebound at all (a bad assumption, given his underlying skills and .249 BABIP in 2008), his package of offense + defense are still worth about 10 runs above an average second baseman. With replacement level set at about two wins below average, and 10 runs equaling a win, it’s fair to say that Mark Ellis is about a +3 win player compared to replacement level.

Last year, there were a few +3 win position players who hit free agency. Torii Hunter got $90 million for five years, Aaron Rowand got $60 million for five years, and Mike Lowell gave the Red Sox a discount, signing for just $37.5 million over three years. The going rate for a +3 win position player was about $15 million per year, which is pretty much in line with the $5 million per win that we’ve seen teams pay in free agency.

Mark Ellis just signed for about $1.67 million per win. This is one of the best free agent bargains in the history of baseball. In an environment where Ellis’ skillset was properly valued and he had a desire to test the market, he should have gotten about three times what he signed for.