Archive for 2008

It might have taken James McDonald a little time to settle on pitching but it looks like it was the right choice for the former two-way player.

Originally drafted as a pitcher at the age of 18, McDonald spent his first minor league season on the mound and posted a 3.33 ERA with 39 hits and 15 walks allowed in 48.2 innings. He also struck out 8.69 batters per nine innings. Regardless, he was converted to a hitter the next season due to ongoing arm issues.

McDonald spent the next two seasons as a light-hitting outfielder and batted .220 with an OPS below .600. He struck out 71 times in 208 at-bats with 21 walks. Sensing his career was at another crossroads, McDonald moved back to the mound and crossed his fingers that the arm woes were behind him.

And they were. McDonald has been on fire since rededicating himself to the art of pitching. In his first season back on the mound, McDonald allowed just 119 hits in 143 innings. He posted rates of 4.03 BB/9 and 9.25 K/9.

His 2007 season, which ended in Double-A, was even better as he shaved off about one-and-a-half walks per nine innings and posted a strikeout rate of more than 11 K/9. In 2008, McDonald returned to Double-A where he spent most of the season. He then pitched in 22.1 Triple-A innings before getting the call to the Majors. The pitcher features the best curveball in the Dodgers’ system, as well as a good change-up and an 88-93 mph fastball. McDonald has good command of all three pitches.

McDonald ended the 2008 regular season by throwing six scoreless innings with five hits, one walk and two strikeouts. He impressed the Dodgers enough in that brief time to receive the final NLDS playoff roster spot. McDonald has come a long way in a short period of time.

The Fireman of the Year Award is a rather meaningless award designed to promote some sponsor of major league baseball while simultaneously honoring the game’s best closer or relief pitcher. While the Academy Awards have the Razzies, this Fireman award does not have a reverse award designated to honor the league’s worst relievers. Yesterday, we took a look at the five worst starting pitchers of 2008, and today we will look to those in the bullpen. While WPA/LI was used to evaluate the starters, I decided to use both the leveraged and unleveraged WPA to check out the relievers. Here are the bottom five relievers via WPA/LI:

Brad Hennessey, -1.36: 13 g, 17.1 IP, 40 H, 8 BB, 12 K, 2.77 WHIP, 12.46 ERA
Jamie Walker, -1.36: 59 g, 12 HR in 38 IP, 1.68 WHIP, 6.87 ERA
Joel Peralta, -1.23: 40 g, 1.33 WHIP, 5.98 ERA, 15 HR in 52.2 IP, 14 BB, 38 K
Bob Howry, -1.23: 72 g, 1.46 WHIP, 5.35 ERA, 13 HR in 70.2 IP, 13 BB, 59 K
Gary Majewski, -1.19: 37 g, 1.90 WHIP, 6.53 ERA, 15 BB, 27 K in 40 IP

From these five, it is pretty remarkable that Hennessey accrued such negative impact in just 13 games, which portends that he might be able to dethrone Brandon Backe as the worst pitcher in baseball. Walker has given up plenty of home runs relative to his innings pitched, and Majewski does not really have anything positive working for him either. Peralta’s walk and strikeout numbers look solid, as he is right around the corner from a 3.00 K/BB, but he has given up a ton of home runs in just 52.2 innings. Howry’s K/BB is over 4.00, but he gives up a lot of hits and home runs. Next up, the bottom five by WPA:

Jason Isringhausen, -2.96: 42 g, 1.64 WHIP, 5.70 ERA
Luis Ayala, -2.85: 81 g, 1.45 WHIP, 5.71 ERA
Jamie Walker, -2.41: SEE ABOVE
Mark Lowe, -2.24: 57 g, 1.76 WHIP, 5.37 ERA
Masa Kobayashi, -2.19: 1.42 WHIP, 4.53 ERA, 2.50 K/BB

Two things should stand out from these five pitchers. First, Jamie Walker is the only reliever to bottom out in both WPA and WPA/LI, and secondly, Kobayashi does not look that bad. He has 14 walks and 35 strikeouts in his 57 appearances, but his hits allowed have raised the WHIP. He is actually the only reliever of the nine listed here with a sub 5.00 ERA. ERA might not be the best evaluator for relievers, but his controllable skills look better than most of the rest.

So, I will leave the votes in your hands for the Anti-Fireman of the Year Award. Does it go to Jamie Walker, who showed poor skills whether the plate appearances counted as one or more plate appearances? To Hennessey, who stunk it up so badly in just 13 games that he actually posted the worst WPA? Or maybe Majewski, who had literally nothing positive working for him or to fall back on?

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Three: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays continue the streak of well balanced teams, possessing the 5th best BaseRuns scored mark and the 6th best BaseRuns allowed mark. This lead to a BaseRuns differential of 121 in the positive column, which was well behind the Red Sox (186) and Cubs (151) for first and second, but was well ahead of tomorrow’s featured fourth place team.

One aspect that has been noted but somewhat overlooked as a quantity was strength of schedule, which was brutal for this year’s crop of teams in the American League East. The top five hardest schedules this season belonged to the five members of that division and that includes the Rays who topped them all.

A poor (for him) season for Scott Kazmir was made up for by a huge step forward for control artist Andy Sonnanstine and Matt Garza making good on the trade that cost the Rays Delmon Young and others. In addition to those two in the rotation, and another good year from James Shields, was Grant Balfour taking over the spotlight in the bullpen and J.P. Howell moving out of the rotation where he was so-so and becoming dynamite in some needed long relief situations.

On the hitting side, it was a big up tick in production from Dioner Navarro and the emergence of Evan Longoria, which allowed the Rays to move Upton off the infield which not only improved the offense but greatly improved the defense.

What does the future hold for the Rays? It looks nothing but bright as David Price emerges on the scene, Scott Kazmir would be likely to rebound and Evan Longoria is probably only going to get better. With both the Rays and Red Sox looking strong for the next few years, we could have a new power duo in the east.

Michael Bowden was a supplemental first round pick of Boston’s in 2005 out of an Illinois high school. The right-hander does not get the press that some of Boston’s other prospects do, but he could very well spend a significant period of time in the Major Leagues in 2009.

He currently projects as a third or fourth starter with an 88-92 mph fastball. During a one-game stint in Boston earlier this season, Bowden also flashed a solid change-up and curveball. He held the White Sox to two runs in five innings after allowing seven hits and a walk, to go along with three strikeouts. He worked up in the strike zone a little too much and induced just three ground balls, along with 11 fly balls and four line drives.

While at Double-A earlier in the year, Bowden posted a 2.33 ERA and allowed just 72 hits in 104.1 innings. He walked 24 batters (2.07 BB/9) and struck out 101 (8.71 K/9). Promoted to Triple-A, he allowed 40 hits in as many innings and walked five (1.13 BB/9). He struck out 29 (6.53 K/9). At both levels, Bowden also struggled with allowing too many fly balls although homers were more of an issue at Triple-A (1.13 HR/9), than Double-A (0.43 HR/9).

Despite some minor struggles, Bowden has positioned himself to receive consideration for a spot in Boston’s starting rotation in 2009, especially if Clay Buchholz continues to struggle.

Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, and Roy Halladay all had fantastic and very storied seasons. A couple of these guys will go home with some hardware before the year ends, and the rest can take solace in the millions of dollars they are, or will be, making. Some pitchers were, suffice it to say, not as good, and the opposite in terms of effectivenss, of the five mentioned above. Let’s take a look at the worst five pitchers in baseball this year, via WPA/LI, to see if there is anything at all positive to take away.

Brandon Backe just may be the worst pitcher in baseball consistently given start after start, and his league worst -2.90 WPA/LI topped or bottomed all others. In 166.2 innings, he posted a 6.05 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP. His FIP did not portend any type of luck, either, as it finished the season at 5.87, thanks to a rather pedestrian 1.65 K/BB. In raw numbers, 77 walks and 127 strikeouts might be acceptable for a rookie with massive upside, but that does not fit Backe’s bill. His .326 BABIP may have been a bit unlucky, but nowhere near the level of unluckiness that a couple other on this list experienced. Why this man still gets paid to pitch in the major leagues befuddles me.

Ian Snell was the next closest, with a -2.82 WPA/LI, but his story is a little different. Despite finishing with an ugly 5.42 ERA, his FIP pegged him at 4.57. Walking 89 and giving up 201 hits in just 164.1 innings results in a 1.76 WHIP, but the hits are unlikely to come at this rate in subsequent years, because it is very unlikely that Snell will sustain a .358 BABIP. His strikeouts may never be excellent compared to his walks, but he is better than he performed this season. The hits should regress next season but if he really wants to take the next step towards a solid career, he will need to control his controllable skills on top of that.

Everyone in the statistical analysis world fell in love with Brian Bannister this off-season after his interview with Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors. Bannister knows what he has to do to succeed, but just didn’t do it too well this season. His 5.76 ERA was mainly the byproduct of a 63.9% LOB coupled with a 1.49 WHIP. That WHIP is actually the lowest of the bunch, and his 1.95 K/BB is the highest. Additionally, his .316 BABIP was the least unlucky, and his xFIP says he actually posted better controllable skills metrics than last year. If anyone in this group has something positive to look forward to next year, it would be Bannister.

Kenny Rogers and Livan Hernandez, on the other hand, just should not be pitching in the major leagues anymore, period. The Rockies sure made an upgrade when they got rid of Kip Wells and replaced him with Hernandez. That’s the equivalent of, well, it’s the equivalent of replacing one really bad item with one that could actually be worse… and then using that potentially worse item for the rest of the season! Hernandez posted a 3.35 K/9. Matt and Marc could probably strike out more batters than that. Kidding aside for a second, he surrendered 257 hits this year in just 180 innings, struck out just 67 hitters, and stranded just 65% of the runners that reached base to the tune of a 1.67 WHIP. His FIP was much lower than his 6.05 ERA, at 4.94, but his career should be over.

Rogers’ numbers are very similar, as he had a 66% LOB, a 5.70 ERA, and a 5.22 FIP. He barely struck anyone out either, and walked enough to produce a 1.15 K/BB. He was not that unlucky in the BABIP department either, meaning he largely just stunk this year. He may have been a key cog in the rotation of the 2006 Tigers, but he is on the last legs of a solid career, and should walk away before we remember him for years like this past one. I would expect Snell and Bannister to experience some type of rebound next season, but Backe, Hernandez, and Rogers should be out of baseball.

This season’s playoffs should be a lot of fun – the Brewers and Rays are easy to root for, the Red Sox-Angels series could be lots of fun, Ozzie Guillen’s crazy quotes, the hilarious awesomeness of Jamie Moyer, and every inning qualifying as high leverage. October baseball is just great entertainment.

However, I’m getting married on Saturday, so you guys will have to enjoy it for me. I’ll be back in a couple of weeks – I’m sure Eric, Matthew, and Marc will hold down the fort here in my absence.

Go Rays, and I’ll see you all in a couple of weeks.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Two: Chicago Cubs

Owners of the best record in the National League and the best actual run differential in the majors, the Cubs ranked 3rd in the majors in runs scored and 5th in runs allowed by BaseRuns.

Like the Red Sox above them, the Cubs did well to balance both good offense and defense and their bullpen was rooted in the success of two main pitchers, Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood. Beside those two, the Cubs pen was rather ordinary.

In the rotation, the Cubs lost the contribution of Rich Hill and got almost nothing out of acquisition Jon Lieber, but instead got a tremendous uplift from moving Ryan Dempster out of the closer role into the rotation. Beyond him, mid season pickup Rich Harden managed to stay healthy and helped solidify the Cubs on top of the Central.

The Cubs were heavily rumored to be involved in trading for Brian Roberts over the summer at the cost of a massive haul of prospects. It’s a good thing for them that Peter Angelos balked at the proposal since the Cubs were able to use some of those prospects to acquire Rich Harden and also because Mark DeRosa flipped out this year eclipsing 20 home runs for the first time in his career.

Continuing with the bats, the Cubs got a great performance out of Geovany Soto, fulfilling the promise he showed at the tail end of 2007 and a bargain pick up of Jim Edmonds after a disastrous first 100 plate appearances in San Diego. Edmonds came over and put up a rejuvenated .937 OPS. A nice boost from Mike Fontenot joined the usual contributions from Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee as well.

In the end, it was an extremely potent offense, bordering on the best in the majors when you factor in that the only two teams to produce more offensively were both AL teams benefiting from having a designated hitter.

This morning we took a look at some of the hitters who performed extremely well over the final month of the season, but went largely unnoticed for a variety of factors. Now, let’s take a similar look at the best under the radar pitchers. Again, we are using WPA/LI as our barometer. For starters, Roy Oswalt and Derek Lowe dominated the season’s final month, posting a 1.64 and 1.27 mark, respectively. In six starts, Oswalt pitched 44.1 innings, surrendering 24 hits, walking just six hitters, while striking out 30 of them. He allowed baserunners to the tune of a 0.68 WHIP, and allowed just 1.42 runs per nine innings. Lowe allowed even less hits and runs. In five starts and 30.1 innings, he managed a 0.59 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP. Other than these two, who performed well on the mound?

Jesse Litsch did, for sure. Formerly an intern for the Tampa Bay Rays (I honestly didn’t write Devil!) Litsch found himself a key component of baseball’s best rotation and he definitely had a September to remember. In six starts, he compiled a 1.13 WPA/LI thanks to a 2.18 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and just 27 hits surrendered in 41.1 innings. For the season, Litsch recorded a 3.58 ERA, 4.29 FIP, and a 2.54 K/BB. He may be one of the least intimidating pitchers, based on mound presence and appearance, but he throws all of his pitches at least 10% of the time and looks to have great control over his controllable skills.

I never thought I would ever get the chance to write anything positive about Kyle Davies, a guy I used to wish would face the Phillies when on the Braves, but he… wasn’t… that… bad… this year. His overall season saw him make 21 starts with a 4.05 ERA and 4.22 FIP. His K/BB was the highest it has ever been at just 1.65, but hey, at least it is some type of an improvement. In September he was 1.10 wins above average, with a 2.27 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP, walking 7 and fanning 24 in 31.2 innings.

Mark Buehrle seems to do the same thing every year. He isn’t a Cy Young Award contender, and he is above average, but he is in that area between being slightly above average and being well above average. This year was a typical Buehrle line with a 3.79 ERA and a 3.94 FIP. In September, he produced a 0.94 WPA/LI, posting a 2.29 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, while striking out 30 and walking ten.

Lastly, another Royal found his way into this article. Zack Greinke had a great September, posting a 2.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, resulting in a 0.92 WPA/LI. He walked just 7 while fanning 32 in his 33 innings of work. On the whole, he produced a 3.47 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and 3.27 K/BB. Zack also experienced the highest frequency of groundballs in his entire, but short, career. With a .318 BABIP I would normally call for some type of regression, but Zack has posted BABIPs of .318, .316, and .318 over the last three seasons, so perhaps this should be expected.

The headlines were dominated by Sabathia, Lee, Halladay, Lincecum, and Santana, but Oswalt and Lowe staked claim as September’s best, and the five players mentioned above were decent surprises.

When the Mets were surging early while Ryan Howard was doing his best impression of Pedro Cerrano impression, it was hard to imagine the Phillies repeating as NL East champions. However, they got enough good performances, especially on the pitching staff, to carry them back into the playoffs. What do they need to do to make Eric a happy, happy man?

Don’t overreact to Burrell’s struggles

He’s been pretty horrible the last couple of months of the season, but if Charlie Manuel decides that represents a real change in talent and limits his October playing time, he’ll be taking a right-handed power bat out of a line-up that needs right-handed power. Burrell’s not as good as he was early or as bad as he was late, and they can’t just react to the recent performance – it’s not more predictive than his body of work overall. Taking Burrell out of the line-up makes the Phillies worse, slump or no slump.

Don’t trust J.C. Romero

You can’t evaluate relievers by using ERA, and with a guy like Romero, that’s even more true. He had a shiny 2.75 ERA this year, but his command is so dreadful that he’s a very risky option as a high leverage reliever. He gets enough groundballs that he probably won’t kill you by giving up the big home run, but you can’t afford to let him walk the bases loaded while trying to find his release point. If ever there was a guy who needed to be on a much shorter leash in the playoffs than he was given in the regular season, it’s Romero.

Ride the big four

There’s a significant talent gap between Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Lidge and the rest of the pitching staff. As much as possible, the Phillies need to maximize the number of innings that quartet throws. The more innings they give to Joe Blanton or the middle relievers, the less likely they are to win. With a wide open National League, Philly has a real chance to reach the World Series this year, but they’ll have to lean on their best pitchers to get them there – the role players aren’t good enough.

Given the recent impact that the C.C. Sabathia trade has had on the playoffs, let’s revisit the move that brought the burly left-hander to the National League and the Milwaukee Brewers. We all know what Sabathia has done for the Brewers in the second half of the season, so let’s look at how the prospects received by Cleveland did this past season.

Outfielder Matt LaPorta was the prospect with the highest profile, as a former first round pick who has put up impressive minor league numbers. He struggled, though, after coming over from Milwaukee and hit just .233/.281/.350 in 17 Double-A games before heading to the Olympics where he was beaned by a pitch and sat out the remainder of the season as a precaution.

In a small sample size, LaPorta’s walk rate plummeted after the trade from 13.0 percent to 6.3 percent, while his strikeout rate remained roughly the same around 20 percent. His power stroke also disappeared as his ISO dropped from .288 to .117, and his OPS went from .957 to .631. He’s likely earned a ticket back to Akron in 2009 to begin the season.

Zach Jackson is a former supplemental first round pick (32nd overall in 2004 by Toronto). He is a soft-tossing lefty who projects as more of a middle or long reliever than a starter. Jackson, 25, appeared in 11 Major League games (nine starts) combined between Cleveland and Milwaukee in 2008. He posted a 5.55 ERA (4.61 FIP) in 58.1 innings. He allowed 69 hits and 16 walks to go along with 31 strikeouts (4.78 K/9). He’ll have to battle for a roster spot in 2009.

Rob Bryson was a name that wasn’t known by many people before the big trade. The 20-year-old, who has split time between the starting rotation and bullpen, spent the season in A-ball. He appeared in just seven games after coming over from Milwaukee after suffering from shoulder inflammation and possibly a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. He has the ability to hit the mid-90s when healthy.

When the Brewers secured the playoff berth, it allowed Cleveland to pick a fourth prospect, as a player to be named later. That player is expected to be named today and should be either outfielder Michael Brantley or infielder Taylor Green.

Both prospects are interesting but they project as bench or platoon players. Neither player has much power but they are both versatile. Brantley has a slightly better chance of being a regular, at least for a few seasons, due to his amazing strike zone judgment and speed (28 stolen bases in 36 attempts). He hit .319/.391/.398 in 420 Double-A at-bats. He walked 50 times (10.6 BB%) with just 27 strikeouts (6.4 K%). His ISO is a paltry .079. Green hit .289/.380/.443 in 418 High-A at-bats. He walked 61 times (12.7 BB%) with 59 strikeouts (14.1 K%). His ISO was a more respectable .153.

Obviously, none of the players above have impacted Cleveland like Sabathia has affected Milwaukee, but 2009 could be a whole different story, especially if Milwaukee is bounced from the 2008 playoffs early on and Sabathia walks for a larger free agent payday. Until then, though, Milwaukee has definitely won this deal.