Archive for 2008

In an effort to counteract the usage of lefthanded relievers in the White Sox bullpen, Terry Francona opted to bat second baseman Dustin Pedroia cleanup this weekend. As odd or funny as it sounds—even prompting Ozzie Guillen to mention it is the first time he ever IBB’d a “jockey”—Pedroia in the cleanup spot is not an absolutely ridiculous idea. Having played just about every game for the Red Sox, last year’s Rookie of the Year winner is hitting .326/.373/.488, good for an .861 OPS. For the record, masher Carlos Pena’s OPS is .865.

Pedroia’s BABIP of .337 is essentially no different than last year’s .334, however his Isolated Power has seen a big jump. Last year’s .125 has jumped to a .161, thanks in large part to his 15 longballs.

Since June 12, he has been especially hot. In the 67 games during that span, just about half of his season, he has hit .384/.426/.598, for a 1.022 OPS. Additionally, 11 of those 15 home runs have come in that span, and Ozzie Guillen was quoted as saying he would rather face David Ortiz at this point than Pedroia. On the year, Pedroia’s 2.63 WPA leads all second baseman, though his 1.56 WPA/LI ranks sixth. This provides valid explanation that he has been clutch this year, as his performance has risen in crucial situations.

He has that look of an Eckstein-gritmaster, but don’t let it fool you… this guy can hit. He doesn’t like hitting cleanup and will likely find his way back to the top of the order when Kevin Youkilis is at 100%, but the way Dustin’s hitting, he isn’t too far off the slugging reputation that accompanies the #4 spot in a lineup.

On a sidenote, Pedroia’s potential right-side-of-the-infield partner, Lars Anderson, was interviewed this weekend at Fire Brand of the American League. To read the interview, click here.

Player agent Scott Boras has been in the news a lot lately, with controversy surrounding the legitimacy of the signings of 2008 first round draft picks Pedro Alvarez and Eric Hosmer. You may be asking yourself, for the 15th or 16th time, why teams even bother to deal with Boras clients. Simply put, he represents some of the best talent in professional baseball, including soon-to-be pros.

On of those amateur clients, Julio Borbon, flew under the radar a little bit before the 2007 draft, thanks in part to his allegiance to Boras, as well as a poorly-timed ankle injury that ruined a good portion of his junior season. Despite that, the Texas Rangers still made Borbon a supplemental first round selection (35th overall) out of the University of Tennessee and signed the Dominican Republic native to Major League contract, complete with an $800,000 signing bonus. Only Boras could finagle a Major League contract for a player drafted outside the first round after coming off a poor season.

Borbon signed late in the 2007 season and managed to appear in just nine regular season games. In 37 at-bats, the speedy outfielder hit .189/.250/.216 with just one extra base hit and three stolen bases. Well, the real Borbon stood up this year. He was advanced to High-A ball to begin the season and hit .306/.346/.395 with two homers and 36 stolen bases in 291 at-bats. Borbon was then promoted to Double-A where he proceeded to hit .332/.371/.457 with five homers and 16 stolen bases in 247 at-bats.

The downside to Borbon is that his running game has shown some holes with him getting caught 11 times in 27 attempts at Double-A, but he has still stolen 52 bases on the season. He also has just 27 walks this season, which is far too few for a slash-and-dash, lead-off type hitter. The left-handed hitter is doing OK against southpaws at the Double-A level with a .281 average but his slugging average dips 100 points and he has yet to take a walk in that situation.

Borbon has quietly flown under the radar for more than a year now, but that is surely going to change soon. He could be making good on the Major League contract before you know it… Perhaps even before the Alvarez/Hosmer mess is settled.

CC Sabathia continued his National League dominance yesterday with a one-hit shutout against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The hit, which came in the fifth inning, was a little squibber back to the mound off the bat of recently acquired Andy LaRoche. Sabathia left the mound and went to make the seemingly routine play, but bobbled the ball and decided any further effort would be futile. The official scorer ruled the squibber a hit, and CC could no longer pitch a no-hitter.

In watching the replay several times, I firmly believe that if Sabathia fielded the ball cleanly he would have thrown LaRoche out. If Andy clearly would have beaten the throw regardless of the bobble, then I am definitely in favor of ruling the play a hit, but the bobble did seem to prevent Sabathia from completing the play.

Following the game, Brewers skipper Ned Yost looked livid as he lambasted the Pirates’ scorer for ruling the ball a hit. I thought it was such a peculiar response given that CC just pitched a one-hitter and the team had a great game. Then, a couple of hours later, the ESPN bottom line informed me that the Brewers plan on protesting the call to get it changed to an error. Their hope, I guess, is that the protest is upheld, the hit becomes an error, and Sabathia magically has a no-hitter.

While I mentioned earlier that I agree the play probably deserved an error as he would have thrown the baserunner out had he not bobbled the ball, I am almost as livid as Yost that they would even attempt this ridiculous move. You cannot just change the past without considering actions from that step forward. Say Sabathia does get charged with an error there… it does not guarantee that the rest of the game plays out exactly the way it did. Perhaps the next inning he gives up a double and a home run. Perhaps he pulls his groin and has to leave the game in the seventh inning. Perhaps the pressure of sustaining a no-hitter would mount and get to CC; or, adversely, perhaps the Pirates hitters would “try harder” in an attempt to avoid being no-hit.

The possibilities are endless, but the point remains that you cannot just magically change one event in a game after the fact and expect that everything else would remain the same. Those who saw that Ashton flick know what I’m talking about. This is very similar to when announcers allude to the fact that if a certain run scored earlier in the game, their team would lead by two instead of one going into the ninth; as if they think everything else would have remained the same. What if that run did score earlier, and led to a big rally? Or, what if the run did score, and then the opposition came out and scored four of their own.

All of these are hypotheticals, but they all point to the fact that you simply cannot change what you do not know. You cannot change the call from hit to an error and then award Sabathia a no-hitter because you have no idea exactly what would have happened from that point on had the ruling been different. Maybe it would have stayed the same, but since we do not know it would not be prudent to guess. I’m sure this protest will be denied, as I’m not the only one who will find it ridiculous, but is this really what the Brewers are concerned about at this point?

Or, maybe they are just taking the Michael Jordan approach right now… you know, where MJ used to get so bored that he would stir something up or purposely take a facial gesture the wrong way to motivate himself. Maybe the Brewers are so used to Sabathia dominating the NL already and are bored by it that they need to find a way to keep the themselves pumped up. I honestly have no idea, but I do know that attempting to get a hit from the fifth inning turned into an error in order to give someone a no-hitter, after the fact, even though nobody knows what would have happened from that point on, is utterly ridiculous.

For basically the entire season, the dregs of Major League Baseball have been the Washington Nationals, the San Diego Padres, and the Seattle Mariners. These three teams have been losing consistently since April, falling out of contention early and locking up spots in the cellar by mid-summer. All three have been nearly equally inept as well, engaging in a chase of sorts for the first overall selection in next year’s draft, widely referred to as the Strasburg Sweepstakes, named after the University of San Diego right-hander of the same name who is the early leader to go number one next summer.

However, over the last week, something strange has happened – all three teams have caught fire and attempted to exit the race for worst.

Last Monday, the Padres welcomed the first place Diamondbacks and promptly swept them, winning 4-2, 9-2, and 5-4. Colorado came into town for a weekend series and won the first game on Friday night 9-4, but then lost by the same score on Saturday and fell 2-1 yesterday. Over the last week, the Padres have won five of their six contests, only the third time this season they’ve pulled that off.

Not to be outdone, the Mariners managed to take two of three from the first place Twins in Seattle to start the week, then flew to Cleveland and swept the red hot Indians, who had won 10 games in a row. When combined with a series win against the A’s before Minnesota came to town, the Mariners have now won seven of their last nine games.

And finally, the Nationals, the clear favorite to finish with baseball’s worst record, and the most consistently horrible team in baseball this year. At least, until last week. On Tuesday, the Dodgers rolled into the nations capitol fighting for their playoff lives and left without a win. Atlanta came in for a weekend series and didn’t fare any better, as Washington’s putrid offense exploded for 24 runs in the three game series. When combined with the 11 run surge in the finale against LA, Washington has now racked up 35 runs in their last four games – they scored 26 runs during a 12 game losing steak just a few weeks ago.

Combined, the terrible trio is 16-2 in their last 18 games. Apparently, the only team that wants Strasburg is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have now lost 10 in a row in a desperate attempt to get into the mix. Of course, with Scott Boras expected to advise Strasburg, they might not want the #1 pick either.

When the Reds traded away both Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Junior, they needed an outfielder to finish out the season. With studly young prospect Jay Bruce already in the majors, there weren’t any more future stars to take a look at, so they turned to organizational solider Chris Dickerson. The 26-year-old was having a relatively successful season down in Louisville, maintaining his average-across-the-board skillset.

He walked some, but struck out a decent amount too. He had gap power, but not long ball power. He stole some bases, but wasn’t a speed burner. He had the glove of a corner OF, but not the bat of one. And, 2008 was really the first year he’d ever hit well for a sustained period of time. In ’06, he hit .242/.349/.424 as a 24-year-old in Double-A – not exactly showing the makings of a real major league hitter. He improved in Triple-A each of the last two yeras, but still looked more like a career minor leaguer than anything else.

However, when he got to Cincinnati, he decided to mash. After going 3-5 with a double and a home run last night, he’s now hitting .328/.406/.672 in his first 69 major league plate appearances. His walk and strikeout rates are about what we’d have expected, but the power is completely unexpected. 12 of his first 20 hits have gone for extra bases, including four home runs. His ISO of .344 is almost double the .193 mark he was putting up in Louisville.

Now, clearly, Dickerson isn’t this good. That’s not very insightful, however, as simply saying a guy making his ML debut at 26 isn’t the best player in baseball isn’t news to anyone. How good is he?

A quick MLE adjusting his ’08 performance in Louisville to the majors would come out to about .250/.340/.430. Of course, 2008 was his best minor league performance, and so would adjust that down a bit to account for his mediocre previous years. However, his major league at-bats count as well, and obviously serve to make the projection a bit more optimistic.

Overall, I’d say that the above line is about right. He strikes out too much to hit for any kind of average, but he’ll offset it with a solid walk rate and some power. Realistically, a .780 OPS from a guy with a decent glove in the outfield is a pretty nifty role player for a contender and a guy who could start for a lot of bad teams.

Dickerson’s one of the hundreds of guys in the minor leagues who are living, breathing indications of freely available talent – a 16th round pick with a nondescript minor league career who makes some improvements and finds himself as a useful major league player at the age of 26. He didn’t cost anything for the Reds to acquire or develop, and now they’ve got a guy who can fill a hole adequately for several years.

Welcome to the bigs, Chris Dickerson. Looks like we’ll be getting to see you stick around for a while.

While researching Rich Harden’s numbers with the Cubs so far, I came to the startling conclusion that I had no idea what he had done since the trade. I mean, I knew he was doing well, that he had not gotten hurt, and that he was helping the Cubs continue their dominance, but I couldn’t quote any of his numbers off the top of my head.

What bothered me a bit was that I knew all about CC Sabathia and his numbers in the senior circuit… and honestly, while Sabathia has performed better in his new league, it’s not like Harden is chopped liver, but he has gotten very little publicity.

One of the major reasons for this, as far as this writer can tell, is the W-L record. Sabathia has gone 8-0 in his ten Milwaukee starts and is averaging just a shade under 8 IP/GM while Harden is just 4-1, thanks to some solid performances without decisions. Remember, I am fully supporting Sabathia as performing better since the trade, but just find it odd that Harden, with his great numbers, is barely being mentioned. Here is a comparison:

CC Sabathia: 10 GS, 1.59 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 7.9 IP/GS, 4.93 K/BB
Rich Harden:  8 GS, 1.47 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 6.1 IP/GS, 5.00 K/BB

CC Sabathia: 85.6% LOB, 0.46 HR/9, 2.23 WPA/LI
Rich Harden: 98.3% LOB, 1.10 HR/9, 1.43 WPA/LI

Harden isn’t likely to sustain a strand rate that ridiculous, and I’m sure many Cubs fans hold their breath after each pitch, hoping he remains healthy, but he has been everything Piniella’s bunch has asked him to be and more. In a playoff series, who do you like better, Sabathia and Sheets or Zambrano and Harden?

August has seen a lot of good pitching performances – Tim Lincecum has a 1.96 FIP, CC Sabathia has an 8.00 K/BB rate, and Ryan Dempster hasn’t alllowed a single home run all month. All these guys are carrying their pitching staffs and performing extremely well.

However, it’s hard to argue that anyone has been as good as Ricky Nolasco this month, especially in terms of dominating the strike zone. In five August starts spanning 37 innings, he has walked 3 batters and struck out 43. That’s a 14.33 K/BB rate, making Sabathia look like a relative scrub. Striking out more than a batter per inning is impressive – doing it while walking one batter every 12 innings is ridiculous.

He has double digit strikeouts in three of his five August starts, and in the two starts he didn’t rack up the strikeouts, he instead induced a ton of groundballs; 15 against the Mets and 12 against the Cardinals. In fact, Nolasco has flashed the tremendous ability of being able to rack up both strikeouts and groundballs, putting up a 10.46 K/9 and a 51.6% GB% in August.

With very few exceptions, pitchers who can rack up both a lot of strikeouts and a lot of groundballs are among the very best pitchers in baseball. In 2008, two pitchers have sustained season long strikeout rates of at least 8.00 K/9 and a 50% GB% or higher – Chad Billingsley and Edinson Volquez. Roy Halladay just misses the strikeout criteria. Those guys are all having All-Star seasons, and Volquez is doing it with lousy command.

Granted, it’s only a month, so Nolasco’s performance doesn’t carry nearly as much weight, but there aren’t many pitchers in baseball that have the ability to run a a strikeout rate over 10.00 and a GB% over 50% for any length of time. That Nolasco was able to do both while simultaneously not walking anyone is pretty remarkable.

He did give up 5 home runs during August, which is why his FIP (and ERA) are higher than some of the other good August pitching runs we’ve seen, but the high concentration of no contact/weak contact still makes this one of the most impressive five start stretches we’ve seen so far this year.

Nolasco isn’t a household name yet, but he can’t pitch like this for much longer and remain any kind of secret.

The Phillies and Cubs are set to square off tonight at Wrigley Field with quite the interesting pitching matchup: Joe Blanton vs. Rich Harden. For those who recently came into contact with that memory-zap gizmo from Men In Black, both pitchers were members of the Oakland Athletics for the last few years. Both were also sold to the highest bidder, so to speak, back in July.

Harden, acquired to combat the CC Sabathia acquisition (no matter what bologna the Cubs front office may feed us) found himself as the #1 or #1A on the Cubs. Blanton, on the other hand, was never expected to turn the Phillies season around, but rather provide a somewhat decent alternative to Adam Eaton. Eaton, for those interested, has stunk it up in the minor leagues.

While Harden has exceeded expectations in Chicago, Blanton has essentially met those pointed towards him in Philadelphia. Here is a breakdown of their performances in Oakland and in their new uniforms:

Rich Harden, Oak: 13 GS, 0.58 HR/9, 2.97 K/BB, 1.14 WHIP, 2.78 FIP
Rich Harden, CHC:  8 GS, 1.10 HR/9, 5.00 K/BB, 0.86 WHIP, 2.74 FIP

Joe Blanton, Oak: 20 GS, 0.85 HR/9, 1.77 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP, 4.18 FIP
Joe Blanton, Phi:  7 GS, 1.42 HR/9, 1.80 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP, 5.06 FIP

Harden has been even better in cubbie blue, really limiting his baserunners and vastly improving his strikeout to walk ratio. He is striking out batters at a tremendous rate and preventing free passes more often than not. The only reason his FIP hasn’t shot down is due to the almost doubled home runs per nine innings number, which was likely to be expected in moving from Oakland to Wrigley.

Keeping with the theme of limiting baserunners, what has happened so far when Rich does allow someone to reach base? Well, glad you asked… the answer is pretty much nothing. See, Harden has a 98.3% strand rate in his time with the Cubs, which, when coupled with a 0.86 WHIP, is downright startling. Next to nobody is getting on base and those that do have had to wait for a teammate to “pick them up” with their glove for the next inning in the field.

Blanton’s FIP has been almost a full point worse on the Phillies, thanks in large part to a HR/9 increase from 0.85 to 1.42. Again, this should have been expected or at least surmised given that he was going from Oakland to a bandbox in Philly. His K/BB has remained virtually identical, however he is striking out almost two more batters per nine innings, which in turn means his walks have also risen. He has been much better at stranding baserunners as well, jumping from 65.2% in Oakland to 81.9% in Philadelphia. Because of this, his ERA is much lower in red pinstripes.

As a member of the Athletics, Harden produced a 1.93 WPA/LI in 13 starts, or around 0.15 wins per start. As a Cub, he has a 1.43 WPA/LI in 8 starts, or around 0.18 wins per start. Blanton has also seen improvement here. As an Athletic, he had a 0.23 WPA/LI in 20 starts, for an average of .011 per start. With the Phillies, it is 0.10 in 7 starts, good for a .014. There is no doubt that Rich Harden was clearly the better acquisition, but Blanton hasn’t been terrible, and that’s really all the Phillies are asking of him.

When the Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez, it was commonly accepted that adding a middle of the order slugger to their offense would help improve their run scoring and allow them to make a push for the NL West down the stretch. For the first couple of weeks after the trade, it worked out great – Ramirez hit .424 with a ton of power, the team scored 77 runs in 16 games, and they went 10-6 in those contests to catch the Diamondbacks for first place.

Things have not gone so well since then, however. Ramirez’s home run last night was his first in the last 10 games, during which time the Dodgers have gone 1-9. And it isn’t just Manny’s offense that has gone south – the team has scored just 21 runs in those ten games, and never more than four in a single game. It’s hard to win when you’re averaging just over two runs a game. Even a series against baseball’s worst team, the Washington Nationals, turned into a debacle, as they got swept by a team that probably wouldn’t have medaled in the Olympics.

It’s not just Manny, either. Besides James Loney, who has gone bananas the last week (.464/.483/.786), the hitters just haven’t generated any kind of threat. Nomar is 2 for his last 24 with no walks or extra base hits. Jeff Kent is 5 for his last 30, and like Nomar, hasn’t done anything besides collect a few singles. Russell Martin and Matt Kemp have badly as well.

This losing skid has dropped the Dodgers to 65-69, and they now sit 3.5 games behind the Diamondbacks, even though Arizona has lost four games in a row themselves. In a division of mediocrity, the Dodgers are out-losing the Snakes, and they have an offense that has gone into a coma to thank for it. Perhaps all the talk about the mental boost teams get from making that big trade deadline acquisition is just that – talk – after all.

Welcome class, to How to Rush a Prospect 101. Your teacher’s name will be Mr. Ricciardi.

The Toronto Blue Jays traded veteran outfielder Matt Stairs to the Philadelphia Phillies yesterday and added top prospect and outfielder Travis Snider to the 25-man roster. Snider, 20, was the club’s No. 1 draft pick in the 2006 draft out of a Washington state high school.

Stairs, 40, really did not belong on the club after inexplicably being given a two-year contract after posting some of his best numbers in years, during the 2007 season. At the time of his signing, Toronto already had aging veteran Frank Thomas at designated hitter and promising youngster Adam Lind growing moss in Triple-A. I can only hope that general manager J.P. Ricciardi can get back a B-level prospect from the Phillies in return for Stairs, but Ricciardi does not have a great track record of picking up good minor league players from other systems.

Snider began the year in High-A Dunedin and was suffering with a bad elbow, which required him to stay off the field and be the club’s designated hitter for more than a month. While in Dunedin, Snider hit .279/.333/.557 in 17 games. He hit four homers and struck out 22 times in 61 at-bats.

In Double-A, Snider hit .262/.357/.461 with 17 homers and 116 strikeouts in 362 at-bats. I personally felt he should have remained in Double-A for the remainder of the season but he was promoted to Triple-A for the month of August. In Syracuse, Snider hit .344/.386/.516 with two homers and 16 strikeouts in 64 at-bats.

Snider’s minor league numbers for the season include a .273 average, 23 homers, 61 walks, and a whopping 154 strikeouts in 487 at-bats. Although talented, it’s clear Snider still has some rough edges when it comes to making consistent contact. I am a little worried that Snider’s rapid ascent through the system is related to the general manager’s desire to justify his track record with player development, given the organization’s continued disappointments under his watch.

With manager John Gibbons having felt the ax earlier in the season, Ricciardi is certainly headed for a review by ownership after the season. A strong finish to the season by Snider can only help Ricciardi’s reputation. But if Snider is overwhelmed by big league pitching for the final month of the year, it could also have long-lasting effects on his development. It also gets Snider onto the club’s 40-man roster two years sooner than needed. It’s a gamble I’m not sure I would make unless I was desperate.