Archive for 2008

When the Braves traded Mark Teixeira to the Angels for, among other assets, Casey Kotchman, the analytic world of the baseball media went into a frenzy. Some analysts wondered how the Braves could get “so little” for one of the best bats and gloves in the game. Others argued that the very attractive contract of Casey Kotchman as well as his glove and potential evened the transaction out. And, I’m sure Steve Phillips dug out five at-bats of Teixeira’s playoff performance in college to say that he wouldn’t help the Angels due to poor post-season play.

Regardless, since joining the Angels, he-with-the-hard-name-to-spell has been on a tear. In 23 games out in LaLa of Anaheim-land, Mark has gone 32-83 with 7 home runs, 15 walks, and just 10 strikeouts. Put together, this results in a gaudy slash line of .386/.485/.675, an OPS of 1.160. His stretch has been so good that his seasonal OPS has actually risen from .902 to .941 in just 23 games.

On the flipside, Kotchman has not been performing too well on the offensive, going just 11-70 in his first 20 games. His .157/.259/.214 slash line as a Brave, coupled with the ridiculous numbers Teix has been putting up will cause some to look solely at the win-now aspect of this trade. This isn’t necessarily “wrong” as the ultimate goal in the eyes of many is to win a world series. If Teixeira can help the Angels win the world series then it will be quite hard to convince a fan of theirs that the trade didn’t work out, even if they are unable to resign him.

If we know anything about hot or cold streaks, we know that they have very little predictive ability. For all we know, these numbers could switch in the month of September, Kotchman will become a national celebrity, and Frank Wren will have a Schuerholz moment. Overall, though, this seems to be an example of the Angels understanding this could be their year, putting some eggs in the Teix basket, and praying it pays dividends.

They didn’t need Teixeira to make the playoffs, and with a 17-game lead in the division, they could probably rest him all of September to keep his legs fresh for the… oh, right, this is baseball, nevermind. But, we all know how this trade will really be judged. Since they didn’t need him to make the playoffs, it means they got him to aid them in the playoffs… which in turn means he better perform well in the playoffs or people will have fits.

On December 13th, Houston and Baltimore made the blockbuster deal that sent Luke Scott to the Orioles. You may have heard the trade referred to as the Miguel Tejada deal, but at this point, it’s pretty clear that Scott’s the best player going forward in that deal. Here are their ’08 performances side by side:

Scott: .272/.369/.509, 437 PA, 1.63 WPA/LI
Tejada: .287/.320/.422, 538 PA, -0.55 WPA/LI

Scott’s run circles around Tejada this year, and has clearly been superior even after you adjust for the difference in positions. While Tejada has degraded into a shell of his former self, Scott continues to fly under the radar as a productive, power hitting outfielder. It’s not like this is his breakout year – check out his career RC/27 graph.

Scott’s combination of patience and power makes him a valuable asset, and one of the key reasons the Orioles have been mediocre instead of terrible this year. Meanwhile, while the Astros are struggling to find enough outfielders who can hit, they’re paying Tejada significant amounts of cash to not live up to his reputation.

The Orioles got rid of both Tejada and Erik Bedard and improved their team on the field immediately – this should be a reminder that media created labels don’t win games, but talent does.

One of my biggest baseball pet peeves is when current pitching barometers (W-L and ERA) are, on their own, used to make extreme analytical claims. I have no problem if ERA is used as one of many metrics in an analysis, or if W-L is somehow adjusted to take several outside factors into account, but on their own, they do not really tell us much. With that in mind, let’s play a little game. Below are some numbers from 2007 and some from 2008, from the same pitcher:

Year    K/9     BB/9     K/BB      WHIP
2007    8.70    1.79     4.85      1.14
2008    8.74    1.81     4.83      1.23

They look pretty identical, right? Yes, the WHIP is slightly higher, but still a very good 1.23. Additionally, the strikeout and walk rates are not only fantastic, but essentially the same. This pitcher’s record last year was 20-7, and he posted a 3.27 ERA. This year, he is 11-9 with a 4.34 ERA. Using just those barometers, he is doing much worse this year. Couple it with the strikeout, walk, and baserunner numbers above, and you should see that the W-L and ERA may be a little fishy in their evaluation.

If you haven’t already guessed, I’m talking about Adam Eaton Josh Beckett of the Red Sox.

Now, there are other numbers we need to consider, since the barometers and more advanced numbers I posted do not show everything, but my overall point is that Beckett has not been nearly as bad as his W-L and ERA would make many Red Sox fans think. His numbers are worse this year, but not by much. Why are they worse?

Well, last year he surrendered 0.76 HR/9, had a .316 BABIP, and stranded 75.2% of the runners that reached base. This year, he has a 1.02 HR/9, a .330 BABIP, and a 69.4% strand rate. Put together, he has allowed more baserunners, has been worse at preventing them from scoring, and has allowed more balls to leave the park. Since his BB and K numbers are the same, the rise in HR/9 has resulted in an FIP increase from 3.08 to 3.32. So, yes, he has been worse this year than last, but a lot of it has to do with the higher BABIP. On top of that, a 3.32 FIP is rather great, and signals that his controllable skills are still darn good.

Interesting to note, his xFIP, which normalizes the home run component of FIP, says he is actually pitching better this year. Last year, his xFIP was 3.56, while it comes in at 3.35 this year. As his numbers stand right now, this would be the first year of Beckett’s career in which he surrendered more hits than innings pitched, largely due to the increase in BABIP. His velocity and movement look pretty similar this and last year as well, meaning some problems could stem from either poor location, or quite simply, bad luck.

His WPA and WPA/LI do not appear to be on pace to match last year’s numbers, but his controllable skills and performance have not been bad to the point that Sox fans should question if he has lost something. This could just be something similar to Jake Peavy’s 2006 season.

After failing to land Jason Bay at the trade deadline, the Rays put a positive spin on their lack of an acquisition to help their offense, pointing to the impending return of Rocco Baldelli as an alternative to Bay. Considering Baldelli’s medical condition, however, it seemed a bit optimistic to be counting on him for any kind of real production.

Sometimes, though, optimism pays off. Baldelli has played in eight games since coming off the DL, and though it’s only 26 at-bats, his .308/.357/.577 mark has to be making people smile. The mitochondrial disorder that sidelined him all year is known best for sapping strength, so the fact that he’s already knocked a pair of home runs and a double is extremely encouraging. If the lingering health problems were going to weaken him physically, it’s pretty unlikely that he’d be driving the ball immediately upon his return.

Trying to project what Baldelli will do the rest of the way is a fool’s errand, as there are too many variables involved with his health, but we know that he can be a very valuable player when he’s 100%. His 2006 performance showed that he can hit for average and power even with his aggressive approach at the plate, and the Rays could certainly use a right-handed hitter who can drive pitches into the gaps.

If Baldelli is able to produce even as a part-time player, the Rays have to like their chances in the playoffs. Their pitching and defense have been outstanding, and adding another potentially productive bat to the line-up serves to make their Cinderella story less likely to strike midnight anytime soon.

When I heard that Eric was planning to do a piece on Albert Pujols today, I thought it might be interesting to go back and review that fateful draft when St. Louis found the future Hall of Famer in the 13th round.

Pujols was drafted out of a small school in 1999 called Maple Woods Community College. He signed about two months after the draft on Aug. 17 and did not make his pro debut until the following season. The 20-year-old hit .324/.389/.565 with 17 homers in 395 A-ball at-bats. Pujols also had 81 at-bats in High-A and 14 at-bats in Triple-A where he hit a human-like (gasp) .214/.267/.286.

Despite only having 14 at-bats above High-A ball, Pujols impressed the Cardinals in the spring of 2001 and the rest, as they say, is history.

But let’s take a step back even further and look at the actual draft where Pujols was acquired. The Tampa Bay Rays had the first overall pick and selected Mr. Josh Hamilton, another interesting story in his own right. The Marlins then took right-hander Josh Beckett and the Detroit Tigers took top college hitter Eric Munson, who found pro ball much more difficult. Other interesting first-round selections included Barry Zito (Oakland), Ben Sheets (Milwaukee), Brett Myers (Philadelphia), Alex Rios (Toronto) and… well, that was about it.

Some of the first round bombs included Corey Myers (Arizona), Josh Girdley (Montreal), Ryan Christianson (Seattle), and the Cardinals’ first-round pick Chance Caple.

Other draft steals included John Lackey (Los Angeles AL) and Carl Crawford (Tampa Bay) in the second round, Justin Morneau (Minnesota) in the third round, as well as J.J Putz, Erik Bedard and Aaron Harang in the sixth round. The next true steal was Pujols in the 13th.

Other big leaguers who were drafted in the 13th round of the 1999 draft include Justin Leone (Seattle), Frank Brooks (Philadelphia), Alfredo Amezaga (Los Angeles AL) and Jason Jones (Texas). Amezaga has had 1,200 MLB at-bats as a utility player, but Leone and Jones have combined for 210 at-bats and nine homers. Brooks has appeared in 12 big league games.

Look, we all know Albert Pujols is an absolutely tremendous baseball player. He is arguably the best player in baseball right now (Yuniesky Betancourt would give him a run), is a clear-cut hall of famer, and there are very few sane pitchers who actually look forward to facing him. A couple of months ago I wrote that he wasn’t being fairly treated in terms of both how good he is and how much coverage finds itself in his direction, because of this inherent comfort factor. Since we know he is fantastic, his performance has become more expected than admired, which I cannot stand. An OPS over 1.000 should “get people going” regardless of whether or not the player in question has reached that mark in just about every season of his career.

This year, even less press seems to consist of Albert-oriented focus, and he might actually be having the best season of his career. He rarely misses games, but being hurt for a bit this year will cause some of his raw totals to fall short of years past; his rates, however, are just as good if not better. In 118 games, Pujols is hitting .359/.467/.639, for a 1.106 OPS. Let that slash line sink in.

The only other time he came close to this was in 2003, when he hit .359/.439/.667, for an identical 1.106 OPS. The difference between the two years comes in the form of walks. This year, Albert has a 17% walk-rate, which is higher than any other season of his career. Coupled with a very low strikeout rate, Pujols has a BB/K of 1.95, meaning that he walks about twice for each strikeout. In terms of raw figures, that translates to 44 strikeouts and 86 walks. In fact, Pujols is the only player in baseball with a 17% or higher walk-rate that has a strikeout rate of under 20%.

Since his rookie season he has never fanned more than walked, and his BB/K has ranged from 1.49-1.95 since 2004. His patience is an enormous factor of his success that does not get mentioned much. Another of these factors is his fielding. You might not think it at first glance, but Pujols has been the best defensive first baseman in baseball at least since 2005. From 2005 until right now, Albert has been +87 plays better than an average first-sacker: +15 right now, MLB best +37 in 2007, MLB best +25 in 2006, and +10 in 2005.

To put that in perspective, not only is he probably the best overall hitter in baseball right now, he is also the best fielder at his position, which truly does elevate his value, regardless of how fielding metrics are perceived in the general public. I’ll end this with just some simple rankings:

BB/K: 1.95, 1st
BA: .359, t-1st
OBP: .467, 1st
SLG: .639, 1st
OPS: 1.106, 1st
WPA/LI: 5.19, 1st
REW: 5.73, 1st

Yeah, he’s pretty good, and could be in the midst of his best season to date.

Brian Bannister made quite the saber splash this off-season when he professed his love of sabermetrics and advanced statistical analysis to unearth exactly what would make him successful. One of his goals involved staying ahead of the hitters, which would in turn reduce his BABIP against. For the most part, this worked in 2007, as he kept hitters at bay with a .266 BABIP. This well below the average mark helped his 3.87 ERA vastly outdo his 4.40 FIP.

In addition to balls put in play against him failing more often than most others to result in hits, his HR/FB was a very low 6.8%. If the average in this category is around 11-12%, then not only was he successful in preventing hits, but he didn’t give up much in the home run department either. So why the 4.40 FIP? Well, he didn’t strike anyone out and his BB/9 was not ridiculously low relative to the strikeout total. All told, his K/BB was a meager 1.75 last year.

This year, things have seemingly changed. His 5.96 ERA is over two full runs worse, his HR/FB has just about doubled to 12%, and 11 of his 25 starts have resulted in five or more earned runs crossing the plate. His latest start featured ten runs in one inning. Though he has definitely had some great games this year, when 44% of your starts involve 5+ earned runs, then either your controllable skills have faltered or you are very unlucky… or both.

If his controllable skills had truly imploded, then his FIP likely wouldn’t be just a half-run higher than last year. Despite his 5.96 ERA, his FIP is a run lower at 4.94. His HR/9 has jumped from 0.82 to 1.41, but his K/BB has risen from 1.75 to 1.94. Additionally, according to the xFIP statistic kept at The Hardball Times—which normalizes the home run component of FIP—Bannister has actually been pitching better this year.

Last year, when his ERA was 3.87 and FIP was 4.40, his xFIP was 5.14. This year, at 5.96 and 4.94, respectively, his xFIP comes in at 4.79. While he outdid his xFIP in both cases last year in the positive direction, both his ERA and FIP have done the opposite this year. It’s hard to convince people that someone with numbers seemingly as poor as his—a -2.02 WPA, -2.36 REW, and -1.39 WPA/LI—is actually performing a bit better than a year in which his surface numbers looked pretty solid, but this does seem to be the case.

I’m sure Banny the Math Whiz already knows this, but for any Royals fan upset with his performance, it isn’t nearly as bad as it looks.

With his next home run, Grady Sizemore will become the newest member of the 30-30 club, combining both power and speed in a season that puts him among the American League’s elite. In fact, he’s only the 52nd player in history to rack up both 30 bombs and 30 steals in the same year. However, Sizemore’s actually in even more exclusive company, as most 30-30 guys have been corner outfielders. If we reduce the list of 30-30 seasons to guys who played either SS or CF, we find Sizemore in impressive company to say the least.

Sizemore will be the 13th SS/CF to go 30-30, and the list reads like a veritable Who’s Who of the best five tool players in baseball history – Willie Mays, Eric Davis, Barry Larkin, Dale Murphy, Ron Gant, Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Cruz, and Preston Wilson. Okay, so those last two names aren’t exactly Hall of Famers, but the rest of the list is the kind of company that any player would want to find himself in.

And, of course, it’s not even September yet – if Sizemore finishes the year strong, he has an outside shot at 40-40, where he’d join A-Rod as the only up-the-middle player to record both 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same season.

Despite the Indians failure as a team this year, Sizemore’s having an excellent season, and has been the best player in the American League this year. Let’s not let his performance get lost due to the struggles of his teammates.

I talked a little bit about Baltimore Orioles pitching prospect Chris Tillman yesterday. Tillman’s Double-A rotation mate David Hernandez is another interesting prospect in the system and a survey by Baseball America recently ranked the pitcher’s out-pitch as the best breaking ball in the Eastern League.

Hernandez was drafted in the 16th round of the 2005 draft out of Cosumnes River Junior College. It was the third time that he had been drafted, including in the 29th round of the 2003 draft by Colorado and the 34th round of the 2004 draft by Arizona.

Along with his breaking ball – which has been called both a curveball and a slider – Hernandez also has a low-90s fastball that can touch the mid-90s and a change-up. He has battled his command a bit (including a career 3.88 BB/9) but Hernandez, 23, has also always been able to rack up the strikeouts (career 10.17 K/9).

After spending his first three pro seasons in A-ball, Hernandez has taken to Double-A like a fish to water. He currently has allowed 102 hits in 129 innings pitched, good for a .217 average against. He also has allowed 64 walks and struck out 156 batters. Hernandez is also an extreme flyball pitcher. If you combine that fact with the high number of walks this season it’s clear that the pitcher still has work to do, but it shouldn’t be long before Hernandez receives a taste of Major League Baseball.

While I firmly believe the comments made by Jimmy Rollins towards Philadelphia fans was a non-story, and, well, true, the fact is that he is having a very poor followup to his 2007 MVP campaign. Granted, some will argue that he should not have won the award in the first place, but he did, and his performance with the bat this year has been anything but award-worthy. Now, in the field, he has been a +8 shortstop this year to go along with his +7 last year and +12 in 2006. The issue, however, is that the perceived effectiveness of a player is generally born out of his offensive performance and production in timely situations.

In other words, WPA is a pretty good indicator of the MVP award, because voters aren’t going to stop and think about what would have happened if every plate appearance just counted as one (WPA/LI). They look at overall numbers, the clutchiness, and more like-factors. With that in mind, and with Rollins’ offensive struggles this year, I took a look at the MVP winners over the last twenty years (1988-2007), along with their WPAs in both the award year and the next year. The ultimate goal being to see if anyone else has had such a drastic perceived drop in effectiveness.

  Year          NAME             WPA1   WPA2   WPA-Drop
  1988      Kirk Gibson          5.00    0.87    -4.13
  1989      Kevin Mitchell       6.91    2.86    -4.05
  1990      Barry Bonds          5.63    7.99     2.36
  1991      Terry Pendleton      3.57    4.81     1.24
  1992      Barry Bonds          5.92    7.79     1.87
  1993      Barry Bonds          7.79    4.82    -2.97
  1994      Jeff Bagwell         5.79    4.70    -1.09
  1995      Barry Larkin         3.96    3.54    -0.42
  1996      Ken Caminiti         6.10    4.38    -1.72
  1997      Larry Walker         6.65    2.63    -4.02
  1998      Sammy Sosa           6.09    4.11    -1.98
  1999      Chipper Jones        6.36    2.16    -4.20
  2000      Jeff Kent            4.85    1.21    -3.64
  2001      Barry Bonds         11.63   10.57    -1.06
  2002      Barry Bonds         10.57    8.36    -2.21
  2003      Barry Bonds          8.36   12.63     4.27
  2004      Barry Bonds         12.63    0.26   -12.37
  2005      Albert Pujols        4.15    9.57     5.42
  2006      Ryan Howard          8.10    3.11    -4.99
  2007      Jimmy Rollins        2.69    0.33    -2.36

Now, Gibson in 1989 and Bonds in 2005 were both injured and missed significant time, so their second year WPA numbers should be disregarded. Other than that, though, Rollins is not alone in his perceived dropoff. In fact, his dropoff from last year to right now is actually less than some others on this list. What also needs to be taken into account is how his WPA in the MVP year is the lowest of anyone in the last twenty years—so there is much less to drop off from—but he has not been the worst in terms of WPA differential between the award year and the year after. His .747 OPS is disappointing, but he has been solid in the field, and despite the criticism pointed towards him with the hustle or lack of puncuality, the situation could be much worse.