Archive for 2008

Last week, Dave Cameron wrote about the Free Talent All-Stars; players who did not require much return either in personnel or salary to acquire, and how they were performing. Most of these players garnered the moniker “low risk/high reward” because teams are giving up very little for them; perhaps these players will experience a career renaissance and produce at a very high level. I also conducted a study of low risk pitchers in the last issue of SABR’s statistical newsletter, By the Numbers.

This offseason, two particular low risk pitchers seemed to stand out from the pack: Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. Both had lousy 2007 seasons which, when coupled with their expensive contracts, made their performances look even worse. Both, however, had caveats to their struggles. Colon’s numbers were a bit deceiving and Garcia was pitching with a significant injury.

Colon signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox while Garcia is still awaiting his shot at auditioning for several interested teams.

Back in February, Josh Kalk pointed out how Colon’s 2007 statistics were more on the deceiving side, noting that his FIP was over 1.5 points lower than his ERA; he also had a ridiculously low LOB% compared to the rest of his career.

In just two starts for the Red Sox this season, Colon has gone 12 innings, surrendering 11 hits and three walks, while striking out 8 batters. He has won both games and has an FIP of 2.68. Though much too early to proclaim Colon has “found it” he has definitely looked much more in tune than the last couple of years. So what happened in 2006 and 2007?

Well, from 1998-2005 his LOB% was 70.8 or higher; in 2006 it was 66.1% and in 2007 it fell to 63.5%. In that same eight year span his BABIP topped out at .313; in 2006 it was .319 and in 2007 it rose to .364. In 2006 he also gave up 14.9% HR/FB, the highest percentage of his career.

Last year he actually reduced his BB/9 from 2.63 to 1.76 and still managed to post a 1.62 WHIP, meaning he got hit around. As evidenced by his decrease in line drives and vast increase in BABIP it seems Colon was very unlucky last year. Perhaps not unlucky to the point that, in a perfect world, he would have gone 13-3 with a 3.00 ERA but unlucky because his 6.34 ERA did not nearly tell enough of the story.

Colon may not be the dominant force he was at the beginning of his career but he doesn’t need to be to produce at the level at which this Red Sox team expects him to.

On May 15th, I wrote this:

They (Washington) won’t win a championship with Perez-Hill-Lannan-Redding, but they’re the epitome of what you can do with freely available talent when you’re willing to take some flyers on guys with question marks. Along with that comes the downside of what they’ve gotten from their #5 starters, however. Washington has done well filling the front four spots in their rotation, but they’re going to have to do some more work to get a fifth starter who won’t cancel out all the work already done.

At that point in time, Jason Bergmann had given up 16 runs in 12 1/3 innings for a sparkly 11.68 ERA and had spent the previous month in Columbus while the Nationals tried other options. However, the night I posted the article above, Bergmann got the call back to the majors and returned in style, with seven shutout innings against the Mets. He followed that up with another seven shutout inning performance against the Phillies, and then tossed 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Brewers on Memorial Day. In all, since getting the call back from Triple-A, Bergmann has given Washington 19 2/3 scoreless innings, a stretch that includes a nifty 6/22 BB/K rate.

However, Bergmann was sporting a 2/12 BB/K rate during his disastrous first three starts of the year, so we can’t really chalk up the difference in results to an improvement in his ability to work around the zone. The change can really be tied to one simple fact; Bergmann is an extreme flyball pitcher (his 58.4% FB% is second highest in baseball), and his performance hinges on how often those fly balls go over the wall. During his first three starts, five of his 23 flyballs left the yard, but he hasn’t given up a single home run despite allowing 29 flyballs in his most recent three starts.

Obviously, neither his early home run rate nor his late home run suppression are sustainable, and the truth of his abilities lies between the two extreme performances. However, due to Bergmann’s proclivity for letting opponents put the ball in the air, Nationals’ fans should continue to expect inconsistency, as his ability to keep runs off the board is almost entirely tied to his home run rate.

Jay Bruce arrives with a 3-3 night, including 2 walks. Reds fans rejoice:

“Did he actually touch the ground, or did he just glide from base to base?” – On Baseball and The Reds

“Jay Bruce will never record an out in his Major League career.” – The Reds Rocket

“Thats what we call a debut!” – Reds Minor Leagues

“Wow. That’s all I can say. Just, wow.” – Redleg Nation

“Corey Patterson better get comfy in his spot on the bench, center field is now occupied.” – Redlegs Rundown

“Bruuuuuuce, Bruuuuuuce” – The Real McCoy

“As a side note: Jay Bruce.” – Reds Pitchfx

“No, he’s not the savior, […]” – Dusty Baker

One of the perks of working for Redlasso is that I am constantly patrolling baseball blogs for all teams. This no-doubtedly keeps me apprised not just of the statistics but also some of the inner workings of teams I would otherwise not be familiar with. One of the articles I came across this morning, over at Mets Fever, initially confused me. The post discussed Adam Rubin’s assertion that the Mets were seriously thinking about sending Aaron Heilman to AAA in favor of Carlos Muniz.

Now, Heilman has not gotten off to the greatest start in reliever’s history, but here are four reasons why the Mets should not send him down.

1) HR/FB
David Appelman wrote about home runs per flyball a few hours ago, explaining that pitchers will generally be in the 10% range. In 2006, Heilman gave up 5.4% HR/FB; last year, 9.1%. This year it is currently 17.9%. It is not very likely he will sustain this pace. He might not regress to the 5-9% range but even something around 12% will cause some of his barometers to drop.

2) Rates of Balls in Play
From 2005-2007 Heilman had an average LD/GB/FB breakdown of 21%/45%/34%. Right now he is at 15.8%/47.4%/36.8%. He has given up ~5% less line drives yet his BABIP of .327 is much higher than the .290, .283, and .263 of the last three years. More of his flyballs are leaving the yard and more of his grounders are finding holes. Additionally, his BA against has been between .222 and .229 the last three years, nowhere near the .274 clip at which opponents are currently hitting him.

3) Mets Starters Are Not Helping
The starting rotation is averaging around 5.81 IP/start, just slightly over 5 2/3 innings. Last year the rotation came in at around 5.95. The bullpen is needed more because the starters are not going very deep into games, giving the Mets three relievers with 23+ games: Pedro Feliciano (26), Heilman (24), and Joe Smith (23). Unlike Feliciano and Smith, Heilman is not a specialist reliever and therefore has accrued more innings.

4) ERA Can Be Misleading for Relievers
Heilman has a 5.81 ERA and a 5.38 FIP, meaning his controllable skills have not been much better than the earned runs results; however, his ERA and FIP numbers are likely to regress when his HR/FB goes down. Additionally, of his 24 games, 17 have been good, or at least not terrible, meaning his high numbers are a direct result of just 29% of his outings.

Now, in defense of those considering the option, Heilman is walking 4.44 batters per nine innings, way up from the 2.09 last year. Still, though, he is striking out 9.23 per nine innings, way up from 6.59 last year. Due to the double increase he still has a respectable K/BB ratio. Another area of concern is his velocity. No, he isn’t throwing slower but rather has increased speed on all of his pitches. His slider has jumped from 83-84 mph to 87.1 mph. With a fastball at 92 mph the difference in speeds might not be large enough to make the slider effective.

Heilman may not repeat the successes of the last few seasons but he is not very likely to finish this season the way he has started it. If the Mets want to make a move to shake up the bullpen, perhaps they should bring up a starter that can go deeper into games rather than send down he who has been a consistent key cog over the last few seasons.

If you have MLB.tv, you’re well aware that MLB has opened up voting for the 2008 All-Star Game, as the commercial every half inning reminds us constantly. And while the game itself doesn’t mean anything, regardless of Bud Selig’s protestations, being named to the team is still considered a pretty big honor among the players. In some cases, the choice is obvious – not voting for Albert Pujols is a felony in Missouri, for instance – but in others, the picture is a little more muddied. Nowhere is the water darker than behind the plate in the National League, however, and it’s not for the usual reasons.

A decade ago, the NL catcher position was Mike Piazza and a host of catch-and-throw guys who hit like catch-and-throw guys. The landscape has changed a bit, however, as the current crop of young backstops are showing that they have some punch at the plate as well as behind it. In no particular order:

Brian McCann

In his third full year, McCann is showing that his ’06 season was no fluke and he’s significantly better than he showed last year, and at the age of 24, he appears to be blossoming into a full blown superstar. He’s hitting .333/.394/.603 while drawing as many walks as strikeouts (18 apiece). Contact and power together are the signs of greatness at the plate, and McCann is showing the ability to hit the ball frequently and with violence. He doesn’t even have to maintain this level of success to be one of the game’s truly great players, but if he does, you can start polishing his Cooperstown plaque now. He’s just 24 years old, by the way.

Geovany Soto

The leading candidate for National League rookie of the yaer, Soto is matching McCann at the plate, hitting .299/.401/.569 in his first year of regular work. However, his underlying skillset isn’t quite as good as McCann’s – he strikes out a lot (27.5%), which means he’s going to have to sustain his much higher than average batting average on balls in play to keep hitting for average. This isn’t to say he can’t, but slow footed catchers don’t usually show up on the league leaders in BABIP, so even though he’s spraying line drives all over the field, we should probably expect a little regression. Like McCann, though, he could fall a long way and still be a very good playerl, and at age 25, he appears to be at the start of a nice career as well.

Russell Martin

Also 25 years old, Martin doesn’t have the power that either McCann or Soto possess, but he’s a great contact hitter with the ability to drive the ball into the gaps, and he’s clearly the best defensive catcher of the group mentioned so far. If you liked Jason Kendall in his prime, you’ll love Martin, and the Dodgers certainly do.

Ryan Doumit

The late bloomer of this group, Doumit is already 27 and scouts don’t love his work behind the plate, but he can hit, and the new regime in Pittsburgh seems committed to maximizing his value as an offensive minded backstop. He’s not as good as the .350/.383/.573 line that he’s currently posting, and his extreme aggressive approach can lead to him getting himself out too often, but the power is legit. His drawbacks might limit him to being the new B.J. Surhoff, but that’s still a quality player, especially if the Pirates can figure out how to keep him behind the plate.

Chris Snyder

Snyder’s behind a quality part-time backstop in Arizona the last two years, and now, given the chance to play regularly, is showing that he can thrive as an every day player. His .277/.377/.492 isn’t as eye popping as the first few guys on the list, but they’re just setting the bar ridiculously high. Snyder’s proving that you can count on him for a .775-.800 OPS from behind the plate, and every team in baseball would have gladly taken that kind of production from their catching position if offered before the year started. Like Doumit, he’s 27 and unlikely to become a star, but he’s the kind of valuable role player that you find on championship clubs.

Assuming the NL only takes three catchers, you have to omit two of the guys above as well as Bengie Molina, who is on pace to have the best season of his career at the age of 34. Picking the catchers for the N.L. All-Star squad this year won’t be easy. I’d bet on McCann, Soto, and Martin, but you could make a case for Snyder, Doumit, and even Molina.

How fitting that in the year that Mike Piazza hangs up his spikes, the National League has multiple successors to his throne.

We’re about two months into the season, and it’s not a bad time to look which pitchers are allowing too many home runs. Fortunately, there’s a useful metric on FanGraphs to do just that. It’s called HR/FB and while I’m sure many of you are familiar with it, here’s a brief summary of how it works.

There’s been a number of studies done on HR/FB and for the most part, they conclude that pitchers do not have control over how many home runs they allow on outfield fly balls. Your typical starting pitcher should be expected to have a HR/FB of around 10% every year. Anything that deviates from 10% could be contributed to the park he pitches in, or to “luck”. So let’s look at who has been allowing an inordinate number of home runs this season:

Roy Oswalt (23.4%) – Oswalt leads baseball with a rather ridiculous HR/FB rate. Basically one in four of his fly balls have become home runs. I don’t care where he’s pitching, this is just Oswalt having some terrible luck. He’s never had a HR/FB above 12.9% to end the season. A couple weeks ago, Eric Seidman asked if you should trade Oswalt in your league; the answer is still no and now is another prime opportunity to go acquire him.

Brett Myers (21.4%) – Sure he plays half his games in Citizen’s Bank Park and he does have a career HR/FB of just over 15%, but 21% even for him seems quite high. He probably isn’t due for such a drastic adjustment as Oswalt, but I’d imagine it should start to trend towards his career average. He hasn’t allowed a home run in his last two starts either, so perhaps he’s well on his way to normalcy.

Carlos Villanueva (16.9%) – Currently, Villanueva leads baseball with a 2.09 home runs per 9 innings. He’s about as much as a fly ball pitcher as he is a groundball pitcher so he really shouldn’t be tied for 5th with most home runs. While Miller Park isn’t all that favorable to fly balls, he should be able to do considerably better in the home run department and decrease is ERA by more than a little come season’s end.

Johnny Cueto (16.4%) – It looks like the phenom has himself a bit of a home run problem. Since he hasn’t been around for very long, it’s a little tough to say if this is just a luck thing, or of it’s a real problem. I’d venture to say it has more to do with luck then anything else, even if he does play in a park that is prone to home runs. Unfortunately, Cueto is an extreme fly ball pitcher and isn’t expected to be particularly stingy with home runs in general.

Mike Mussina (16.4%) – We all know about Mussina’s decline in fastball velocity. John Walsh’s research suggests that mis-located fastballs of the slower variety could certainly cause an increase in home runs and it’s possible that could be happening to Mussina. I still think his HR/FB should drop as the season continues, but it’s hard for me to be enthusiastic about.

Johan Santana (15.9%) – Santana developed a home run problem last year and it seems to have continued into this year. Shea stadium is slightly worse for home runs than the Metrodome, but it really doesn’t explain such a high HR/FB. It’s hard to imagine it won’t decrease as the season goes on, but unless it drops back down to around 10% or lower, it will be difficult for him to return to sub-3 ERA levels.

In Sunday’s 18-inning marathon between the Reds and Padres, pitchers Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez made uncharacteristic appearances out of the bullpen. After ruffling through eight different pitchers in twelve innings, the Reds found themselves out of traditional relief resources. Harang came in for the 13th-16th innings while Volquez pitched the 17th before surrendering a walkoff home run with two outs in the 18th. Though odd that they pitched out of the bullpen, period, the actual ingredients comprising these appearances are even more interesting.

Harang had pitched just three days earlier, against the same Padres, experiencing his worst start of the season. In it he went just 5.1 innings, giving up 10 hits and 5 runs; he also walked two and struck out seven. This start had been one of just two stains on an otherwise very solid albeit unlucky season for the Reds ace. In his career, Harang had never pitched on just two days rest. Based on his performance against the Padres, perhaps he should more often!

Okay, I’m kidding, and would never base a statement like that off of just one game but Harang might have pitched his best on Sunday. In four innings of relief work he gave up just two hits and struck out nine batters. His nine strikeouts happened to be his season high. Harang was clearly aided by imposing shadows, causing some feeble and futile swings from Padres hitters; for a guy as unlucky as he throughout this season this goes down as positive karma in my book.

Volquez, on the other hand, had pitched two days prior, striking out 12 Padres hitters in six innings of two-hit, one-run work. Volquez has been so good this season that his ERA actually went up after that outing. On Sunday, though, Volquez went 1.2 innings, walking one and striking out two. He also gave up one hit which proved to be the game-winner. With two on and two out in the bottom of the 18th, he gave up a walkoff three-run home run to Adrian Gonzalez.

Despite garnering the loss, the three runs were all unearned because, a few plays earlier, Joey Votto botched a routine play to first base. Volquez pitched six tremendous innings on Friday, giving up one run, and yet he raised his ERA; on Sunday he gave up a three-run home run and his ERA went down.

Based on the WPA results, Volquez’s -.216 deemed this his worst appearance of the season while Harang’s +.568 was far and away his best.

For the next two weeks, in honor of the upcoming MLB Amateur Draft on June 5-6, I will be devoting my posts to a review of the 2007 draft. Today, let’s take a look at how some of the key National League first rounders are faring in their first full season in professional baseball.

Josh Vitters (Chicago NL) has been injured and has only played in four games so far this season at the A-ball level. Fellow prep third baseman Matt Dominguez (Florida) had a late start to the season after beginning in extended spring training. He has appeared in only five games.

Pittsburgh fans were disappointed with the club’s selection of college reliever Daniel Moskos. The lefty has been shifted to the starting rotation but his numbers have been nothing special in High-A ball: 4.89 ERA in 42.1 innings with 41 hits. He has rates of 5.95 K/9 and 2.13 BB/9.

Matt LaPorta (Milwaukee) was the surprise pick of the early going in the 2007 draft. The Brewers could not turn down the opportunity to draft his powerful bat, even though they already had Prince Fielder at first base. LaPorta has been shifted to the outfield where it is a stretch to call him an even average fielder. However, he has done nothing but hit and could see the majors by the end of the year. In Double-A this season, the 23-year-old has hit .293/.402/.602 with 13 homers in 181 at-bats. He has walked 13.2 percent of the time and struck out 17.5 percent.

High school shortstop Peter Kozma (St. Louis) was supposed to possess an advanced bat for a prep player and he has done nothing to change that view. In A-ball this season, Kozma is hitting .280/.356/.409 with three homers in 164 at-bats. He has walked 10.6 percent of the time and struck out 20.6 percent.

Outfielder Jason Heyward (Atlanta) is another high school player that has been outstanding so far this season. He has a line of .330/.368/.495 with six homers in 194 at-bats. Heyward has walked 6.9 percent of the time and struck out 18.1 percent. The left-handed batter is also hitting .388 against southpaws.

Like Detroit’s Rick Porcello, prep pitcher Tim Alderson (San Francisco) skipped A-ball and made his full-season debut at High-A ball. He has an ERA of 3.68 in 51.1 innings. He has rates of 6.84 K/9 and 3.51 BB/9.

San Diego’s first round pick Nick Schmidt pitched in just three games before injuring his elbow and requiring Tommy John surgery. He should be ready to pitch again in 2009.

So far so good for the National League, as the above players represent a very impressive haul for the 2007 first round.

For most of the season all eyes directed towards the Phillies offense have been focused on Chase Utley. And why not? After all, Chase can be found in the top five or top ten in just about every offensive category in the National League. Recently, though, Utley has hit a coldspell, posting a .203/.294/.356 slash line in his last sixteen games. Luckily for the Phillies, others have stepped up and filled the void.

My brother, who covers the Phillies at Phanatic Phollow Up, wrote yesterday about how not just one but many Phillies hitters are stepping up at this juncture. In his first 19 games, Shane Victorino had a .626 OPS; in his last 19 games it has been .773, raising his season OPS to .703. Geoff Jenkins had a .237/.284/.329 slash line through 24 games; in his last 21 it has been .339/.358/.468. Even Pedro Feliz is at a .304/.333/.478 clip over his last 12 games.

Of all the players stepping up, none is more satisfying to Phillies fans than Ryan Howard. Since May 7th, Howard has played 18 games, with a .264/.321/.681 slash line, 4 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR and 18 RBI. On the season he has 14 HR, coming in just behind Lance Berkman, Dan Uggla, and teammate Utley. Howard is still striking out, 28 K in these 18 games, but the extra base hits, about half of which have been to the opposite field, are definitely a promising sign.

He puts about one-third of his flyballs into the stands and hits a lot of balls hard, as evidenced by his ~20% line drives. Despite lacking anything resembling speed, Howard has had very high BABIPs for his career; .375 in 2004, .358 in 2005, .363 in 2006, .336 in 2007. This year, however, it is only .245. This should regress to his mean as the season progresses meaning Howard could, and probably will, defy his critics by having what ends up as a good season.

The strikeouts are definitely a problem but, unlike in April, when he was just striking out, now he is striking out and hitting the ball hard, often out of the stadium.

The Diamondbacks have one of the best outfields in baseball, with Eric Byrnes, Chris Young, and Justin Upton providing both offense and defense for the team that looks like the National League’s best. In order to make room for Upton, however, they shipped off Carlos Quentin, and he’s quickly making them regret that decision.

After another huge night, where he was the White Sox offense against John Lackey, Quentin continues to solidify his position as the best hitter in the American League so far in 2008. His .301/.415/.608 line gives him the league’s highest WPA/LI, and his 14 home runs also lead the junior circuit while matching his career total coming into the ’08 season. When you can double your career home run total in 166 at-bats, you’ve either had an amazing year or a pretty lousy career to that point, or more probably, both.

Quentin was a pretty big disappointment in Arizona, and his power was a question mark after just okay performances in some pretty good hitters parks. He’s answering those questions in a big way this year, however. 22 of his 50 hits have gone for extra bases, and when you combine the ability to drive the ball with good pitch selection (13.3% BB%, 17.8% K%), you get an all-star offensive performer. Unlike many hot starters, Quentin’s early strong performance is not driven by an unsustainable rate of hits falling in front of fielders, as his .287 BABIP is actually a little below the league average. His goodness is coming from hitting the ball over the wall, and while he won’t keep getting home runs at this rate, he’s a talented player who is breaking free of the bust label.

Considering the White Sox got him for a decent-but-not-great prospect in Chris Carter, the acquisition of Quentin has to be considered the steal of the offseason, and is one of the main reasons Chicago is a surprising contender in the A.L. Central.