Archive for 2008

The Cardinals offense this year was supposed to be Albert Pujols, Rick Ankiel, and not a whole heck of a lot else. Ryan Ludwick apparently had other ideas. He hit his 8th home run of the season last night and is now second in the National League in OPS behind Lance Berkman. Chipper Jones is getting a lot of notoriety, since he’s hitting .400 and all, but Ludwick is producing at a similar level through the first quarter of the season.

Not a bad return for St. Louis, who picked up Ludwick on a minor league contract in December of 2006, after four previous organizations decided he wasn’t in their plans. A former 2nd round pick of the A’s, he’d shown some power while climbing the minor league ladder, but his aggressive approach and lack of contact caused teams to question whether he’d produce enough to justify a regular job in a corner outfield spot. Poor major league performances, albeit in limited trials, from 2002 to 2004 didn’t help his cause, and last season was his first real chance to play on even a semi-regular basis. He showed the same aggressive power hitter skill set as always, but improved his contact rate enough to get his batting average and on base percentage up to respectable levels.

Given a mostly regular job so far this year, he’s performing like never before. His line drive percentage is an other-worldly 39.1%, or higher than Lance Berkman and Hanley Ramirez’s combined line drive rates. The next highest LD% is Matt Kemp at 32.3%, and Aaron Rowand (30.1%) is the only other guy in baseball above the 30% threshold. Ludwick’s hitting line drives almost 40% of the time. That’s just ridiculous.

It’s also totally unsustainable. The highest full season LD% from 2004 to 2007 belonged to Brian Roberts in 2005, at 27.4%. As good as Ludwick is going, he just can’t keep hitting line drives at a 40% clip. He will cool off, and regression to the mean will rear its ugly little head. But for six weeks, Ludwick has been about as good as anyone in baseball.

The St. Louis Cardinals are playing surprisingly good baseball so far in 2008, posting a 22-15 record and leading the NL Central division. However, they could be doing substantially better if not for the struggles of their closer, Jason Isringhausen. After blowing another 9th inning lead last night, Izzy has now accumulated a major league worst -2.25 WPA, thanks to allowing 13 runs in 15 2/3 high leverage innings. During the last two and a half weeks, Isringhausen has given up a lead or tie five times. Charts like this will give Tony LaRussa some kind of heartburn.

This isn’t just bad timing, either – Isringhausen is running a 5.16 FIP, thanks to command problems and an inability to keep the ball in the yard. He’s not as bad as his 7.47 ERA would indicate, but St. Louis is going to have to see him pitcher better than he is if they’re going to keep handing him high leverage situations where they can’t afford to let him give up a run. With youngster Kyle McClellan throwing well (2.87 FIP, closer stuff), the Cardinals have an alternative option. Isringhausen may be the established veteran down there, but right now, the only thing he’s establishing is that he shouldn’t be pitching in the 9th inning.

The site has been updated with Win Probability stats for 1981 – 1988.

Please make note of Dwight Gooden’s 1985 season when he had a WPA of 9.94. The only player to have a higher WPA in the years that WPA has been run for is Barry Bonds. Bonds bested him in 2002 and 2004, but that’s it. His BRAA that season was 75, which is 10 runs better than any other pitcher in a single season for all WPA years calculated so far.

The next best player that season in terms of WPA was Eddie Murray who had 6.75 wins, more than 3 wins less than Gooden. And while Gooden unanimously won the Cy Young award that year, he was without a doubt the MVP that season too.

An article of mine titled “Low Risk-Any Reward?” was published in the most recent issue of SABR’s newsletter, By the Numbers. The article looked at low-risk pitcher signings from 2002-2007 and sought to find out if they were really worth the risk. This year, at least one such low-risk signing is performing pretty well. His name is Shawn Chacon and you may remember the 30-yr old Alaskan from his past work with the Rockies, Yankees, and Pirates.

Chacon has made seven starts this year and is yet to receive a decision. Yes, you read that correctly: he is still 0-0. While Aaron Harang has been unlucky in his decisions received, Chacon hasn’t even gotten the chance to receive unmerited decisions.

He has gone six or more innings in all but one start and allowed more than three runs just twice; ironically, they were his most recent starts.

On the year he has pitched in 45 innings, surrendering 40 hits and 22 walks, while striking out 32 batters. With five home runs allowed and a 1.45 K/BB ratio, his ERA of 3.60 is a bit misleading of his skill level; his FIP suggests it should be closer to 4.48.

His 1.38 WHIP greatly benefits from a 78.2 LOB% and hitters are producing at a slash line of .244/.332/.402; an OPS of .734. Oddly enough, Chacon is the first pitcher I’ve come across here whose BABIP perfectly correlates with his xBABIP via frequency of line drives. His 15.0% LD would suggest a BABIP of .270. His actual BABIP? .269!

He has cut back on his usage of fastballs by nearly ten percent, filling the void with three percent more sliders and six percent more curveballs. His next scheduled start is May 11th. Hopefully he can get a decision then or else Odalis Perez’s record of 18 ND’s in 2004 may soon be in jeopardy.

If you don’t live in Washington D.C. and you actually know something about John Lannan, raise your hand. Don’t worry hands-in-your-lappers, you’re not alone. This nondescript lefty has snuck up on the world, and outside of the Nationals season ticket holders and his immediate family, he’s still an unknown. But, as long as Lannan continues to be overlooked, the world will continue to miss out on one of the more underrated youngsters around.

Lannan was an 11th round pick by the Nationals in the 2005 draft out of noted baseball powerhouse Siena College. At 6’5, he’s in the John Halama school of tall guys who look like they should throw harder than they do. His below average velocity and no real out pitch caused him to be seen as a longshot to make the majors, which is why Washington was able to select him 324th overall three years ago.

He didn’t exactly light the minor leagues on fire, either. His debut in Vermont was mediocre at best, as he po6sted 5.34 ERA with 31 walks and 41 strikeouts in 63 innings of work. Generally, guys who can’t get swings and misses in short season leagues don’t make it to the majors. However, he moved up to Savannah, the Nationals full season affiliate in the South Atlantic League, in 2001, and made some strides. He struck out 114 batters in 138 innings, but his command problems (54 walks and six hit batters) helped him give up 83 runs.

Heading into last season, he was still more organizational player than real prospect, but started to get better sink on his fastball and improved his command, allowing him to climb from high-A ball all the way to the majors in a single season. He earned the distinction of being the first player ejected from his ML debut last summer after hitting Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, breaking Utley’s wrist in the process.

But now, after his 6 IP/1 R performance against Houston last night, he sports a 3.40 ERA and 3.98 FIP, entrenching himself as a regular member of the Washington rotation and making himself memorable for reasons beyond injuring all-stars. How has this kid come from out of nowhere to become a viable major league starter?

Once again, the hidden goodness of ground balls. Lannan’s pounding the bottom of the zone with his mixture of pitches that includes a solid two-seam fastball that makes up in movement what it lacks in velocity. His slider, curve, change, and cut fastball help keep hitters off balance, and he mixes all five pitches well and keeps them down in the zone. His command still isn’t great, but when he misses, he misses down in the zone, which helps keep the ball in the yard.

His stuff is good enough to rack up an average strikeout rate, and as we’ve talked about before, the combination of some strikeouts and a lot of ground balls are a powerful force for any pitcher. He may have come out of nowhere, but he’s showing staying power. As long as he keeps that sinking fastball down in the zone, the Nationals will be quite happy to pencil Lannan into their rotation for the next several years.

The Cincinnati Reds have some depth at the hot corner, especially in the lower levels of the minor leagues. There is no rush for these players to develop as currently major league third baseman Edwin Encarnacion is showing signs of developing into a solid, albeit unspectacular, everyday player. He is currently hitting .258/.360/.492 but is showing increased home run power and better strike zone judgment with only 18 strikeouts and 19 walks. His walk percentage has almost doubled over last season from 7.2 to 13.7 percent. His strikeout percentage is down slightly from 17.1 to 15 percent.

Juan Francisco is a 20-year-old Dominican playing at High-A Sarasota. He’s hitting .275/.290/.464 with 11 doubles and five homers in 138 at-bats. Unfortunately, he has only three walks and 29 strikeouts. Last season he walked 23 times and struck out 161 times in 534 at-bats. He hits very well against left-handers, including .360/.379/.520 this season. The talent is there, he just needs to learn the strike zone and show a little more patience.

Brandon Waring, 22, is an intriguing prospect and he has flashed excellent power potential, both in college and in pro ball, after being signed in the seventh round of the 2007 draft. Currently in the Midwest League, Waring is hitting .302/.377/.575 with eight homers in 106 at-bats. He has also driven in 25 runs in 29 games. Unfortunately, like Francisco, he has work to do with the strike zone with only eight walks and 39 strikeouts. Last season, in the Pioneer League, Waring hit 20 homers in 267 at-bats but struck out 83 times.

I took a look at Todd Frazier yesterday, while reviewing the Reds’ 2007 draft and this is what I said him, in case you missed it: Frazier was the 34th overall pick out of Rutgers University and has been on the prospect radar since he was a kid. He also has two brothers who have played pro ball. Frazier is currently at shortstop but many feel he will have to move to third base as he climbs the ladder towards a major league career. He had a nice debut in 2007 and hit .319/.405/.538 over two levels. The Reds were cautious with him in 2008 and started him out at Dayton, where he ended last season, and he hit .321/.402/.598. The right-handed batter beat up on southpaws to the tune of .414/.485/.724. He was just promoted to High-A ball.

Depth is always nice to have and the Reds have a ton of it at the third base bag. All the players looked at above have things to work on, but the talent is undeniable.

Prior to this season I strongly contended that Aaron Harang was the most underrated starting pitcher in the National League. A little over a month into the season and my contention has grown. There’s a formula I like to use to determine underratedness:

Underrated = (Being On A Bad Team + Very Few, If Any, Nationally Televised Games)/(Never Posting Insane Conventional Stats, Like 20 Wins, That Would Force Somebody To Take Notice)

It’s a bit long but it gets the job done and sums up Harang. Some may argue, “But Eric… Harang does post great stats,” and I would agree; however, he has never won 20 games or posted a 2.40 ERA, or struck out 265 batters, which are numbers that would literally force Cy Young Award voters and more casual fans to take notice.

From 2005-2007, The Harangutan has made 32+ starts, pitched in 210+ innings, walked no more than 56, and increased his strikeouts from 163 to 218. His WHIP has ranged from 1.27 to 1.14 and his ERA has decreased from 3.83 to 3.73. His FIPs of 3.67-3.71 imply his ERA has mostly painted an accurate portrait.

This year, Harang has the following line:

8 GS, 3.09 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 55.1 IP, 48 H, 13 BB, 47 K; opponents are hitting .235/.281/.382 (.663 OPS); and his average Game Score is 59.

His record, you may ask? 1-5. One win and five losses despite posting the numbers above. Harang has given up more than three runs in just one start. If we remove that start he has a 2.55 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an average Game Score of 61.

How has this happened? Well, run support! The Reds have scored a measly 14 runs for Harang. On top of that, four of those runs came in his lone victory. In his other seven starts he has received 10 runs of support in 47.1 innings. Jorge de la Rosa got seven runs from his team just yesterday.

I probed the B-R Play Index to find pitchers in recent years who have experienced similar plight. Though this is likely specially selecting stats, the criteria used:

a) In the team’s first 40 games
b) From 1999-2008 (ten years)
c) Game Scores of 55+
d) No more than 3 ER
e) Resulting in a Loss or No-Decision

That criteria brought a five-way tie for first place, with each of the five recording 5 losses/no-decisions. The players were: Harang, Odalis Perez (2008), Roger Clemens (2005), Chris Carpenter (2006), and Jason Bergmann (2007).

If the Reds do not start picking up their ace he could very well fall into the 2007 Matt Cain category of extreme unluckiness.

Can I Get A Hitter? (Dave Cameron)
– Middle infielders beware: 2008 wrote you a letter and it’s not nice.

Zito…Pitches…Well? (Eric Seidman)
– In a drastic turn of events, it appears Zito did something right.

The Little Red Machine (Marc Hulet)
– Marc thinks the Reds might have found some hidden gems in the 2007 draft.

Designated What? (Dave Cameron)
– Things aren’t good when some team’s pitchers are hitting better than your team’s DH.

Should I Trade Roy Oswalt? (Eric Seidman)
– I’d trade 1 Roy Oswalt for 1 Chase Utley in a heartbeat.

I get quite a bit of e-mail from those asking for fantasy baseball advice. People want to know who to drop, who to pickup, and whether or not a certain proposed trade bodes well for them. Though I do not consider myself to be an expert, by any means, there are certain tips I usually give out, many of which are derived from this site.

One recent e-mail included the following question: “Should I trade Roy Oswalt? He’s got a 5.33 ERA and is giving up a ton of home runs.”

Though I initially scoffed at the idea of getting rid of arguably the most consistently good pitcher of the decade, it soon dawned on me that fantasy baseball still uses more conventional statistics. In an online world where BA, W-L, and ERA still run rampant his “dilemma” is more of, well, a dilemma. Still, though…

Oswalt has not posted an ERA+ under 125 since 2004 and has been a lock for 30+ starts, 210+ innings, and 150+ strikeouts. This year, though, he has an ERA+ of just 78, a WHIP of 1.49, and has already surrendered 11 home runs. In the four-year span prior to this season he averaged just 17 home runs.

The problem here can be solved by looking at his splits. Oswalt got off to a very rocky start but has definitely picked his game up of late. In his first three starts:

0-3, 9.00 ERA, 16 IP, 30 H, 16 ER, 2 BB, 12 K; Average Game Score = 29; Opponents hitting .400/.410/.720.

In his five starts following that:

3-0, 3.55 ERA, 33 IP, 28 H, 13 ER, 13 BB, 30 K; Average Game Score = 56; Opponents hitting .228/.307/.447.

He has definitely been more Roy-like lately but the home runs surrendered are a tad alarming. Also alarming is how his walks have increased and strikeouts have decreased from 2005 to 2007. To answer, no, unless you can get an absolutely tremendous offensive player to fill a desperately needed void, do not trade Roy Oswalt.

On the other hand, though, you might want to start convincing others in your league that he’s lost a step and you’ll “take him off of their hands.” Even if he is not exactly the same pitcher he was from 2002-2006 he is still a consistent and durable ace that any team, fantasy or professional, should be happy to have.

Finding a designated hitter is very easy. The skills required to be a successful DH aren’t rare, and there are an abundance of guys with offensive abilities and defensive problems that a team can generally count on getting quality production from the designated hitter spot. Unless, of course, that team is the Seattle Mariners, who simply can’t figure out how to find a guy who can hit and do nothing else. So far, in 2008, their DHs have combined to hit .208/.268/.308, a pathetic .575 OPS that translates into -0.71 WPA/LI. That’s brutal. For comparison, Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are hitting .242/.292/.333 (thank you, Micah Owings).

The main culprit has been Jose Vidro, whose collapse was the easiest thing to see coming this side of a neon freight train. However, the Mariners haven’t gotten any improvement from switching to Jeff Clement a week ago, as he has struggled to adjust to major league pitching since coming up from the PCL. His problems ran so deep that the team used Willie Bloomquist to pinch hit for Clement in the 9th inning of last night’s game. Willie Bloomquist!

Greg Norton had 11 successful at-bats before he was discarded as a less useful part than Miguel Cairo, a decision so unfathomable that I don’t even know which wall to begin banging my head on.

The Mariners offense has been horrendous the last few weeks, and the lack of production from their DHs is one of the main reasons why. When you have a group of players whose entire value is derived from their offense and they’re getting outhit by another team’s starting pitchers, you’re in trouble. And the Mariners are certainly in trouble.