Since we released the Win Values for hitters here on the site, one of the main questions was when we were going to add them for pitchers. The answer: today. If you go to a pitcher’s player page here on FanGraphs, you’ll see the newly added Value section down at the bottom.

For example, here’s Johan Santana’s Win Values for the past five years:

2004: +7.6 wins
2005: +7.2 wins
2006: +7.1 wins
2007: +3.4 wins
2008: +4.6 wins

During his stretch of dominance with the Twins, he was consistently amazing. He took a step back in his last year in Minnesota though, and while he rebounded somewhat this year, he hasn’t been the same elite guy that he was in his prime during the last two years. Still very good, certainly, as a +4.6 win pitcher is among the best in the game, but not quite the guy he was from 2004 to 2006.

Other fun pitchers to look at: Brad Lidge (+3 wins from a closer in ’08 – quite the addition for Philly), Barry Zito (the Giants should have seen this coming), and Ben Sheets (seriously, someone should give this guy some money).

So, now, for the obvious question – how on earth did we come up with these things?

Starting tomorrow, we’ll do a week long series explaining the calculations behind pitcher win values and the questions that arose during the process. They’re far more complicated that hitter win values, honestly – there’s issues of run environments, leverage, and context that had to be accounted for, and in many cases, the decisions of how to handle these things aren’t cut and dried. So, over the next few days, we’ll dig into those issues and talk about how we arrived at the values we did, and what the positives and negatives of those decisions are.

Pitching Win Values (wins above replacement) are now available in the player pages. Huge thanks to Dave Cameron and Tangotiger for making the calculations pretty simple to implement.

The categories are as follows:

Starting – Runs above replacement as a starting pitcher.
Start-IP – Innings pitched as a starter.
Relieving – Runs above replacement as a reliever.
Relief-IP – Innings pitched as a reliever.
Value Runs – Starting + Relieving
Value Wins – Value Runs converted to wins.
Dollars – Value Wins converted to free agent dollars.
Salary – What the player actually earned.

Some things you should know is that these are all park and league adjusted, the calculations are based off FIP (using RA and not ERA), and the runs to wins conversion is different for each player since pitchers have a huge hand in creating their own run environment.

This will be in the leaderboards and team pages soon enough and Dave Cameron will dive into the real details later on.

Aside from the J.J. Putz trade, the Seattle Mariners organization has had a fairly quiet off-season despite its disappointing 2008 season and 61-101 finish. Haunted and hindered by some poor contracts (Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva, Kenji Johjima), the club has made only minor adjustments to the 40-man roster via free agency with the acquisitions of corner infielder Russell Branyan, and reliever Tyler Walker. The club also selected Rule 5 draft pick Reegie Corona, a middle infielder.

As well, the organization added five prospects to the 40-man roster: pitchers Gaby Hernandez, Stephen Kahn, Marwin Vega, as well as outfielders Michael Wilson and Greg Halman.

Hernandez was originally selected out of a Miami high school in the third round of the 2004 amateur draft by the New York Mets. He was then traded to the Florida Marlins for veteran catcher Paul LoDuca in December of 2005. In July of 2008, the Marlins shipped Hernandez to Seattle for ancient reliever Arthur Rhodes. The 22-year-old has excellent stuff – including an 88-93 mph fastball, plus curveball and change-up – but his results have been inconsistent. Hernandez began 2008 in Triple-A but was lit up. He allowed 94 hits in 64.2 innings and posted reasonable rates of 3.62 BB/9 and 7.52 K/9. He also allowed 14 home runs (1.95 HR/9). Hernandez was demoted to Double-A where he went 3-0 in four starts with an ERA of 4.30. The trade to Seattle followed and Hernandez was again assigned to Double-A, where he posted a 5.01 ERA in six starts. Overall on the season, he allowed 154 hits in 121.2 innings, with rates of 3.33 BB/9 and 6.95 K/9. Right-handed batters hit .327 against him. He was equally ineffective in the Arizona Fall League with 33 hits allowed in 29.1 innings and an ERA of 7.67.

Kahn was an interesting addition to the 40-man roster after missing all of the last two seasons with ACL tears in both knees. Despite having thrown just 14.1 innings since 2006, he took a valuable roster spot. Those 14.1 innings came in the 2008 Arizona Fall League, where Kahn allowed 18 hits, 10 walks and struck out just nine. There was no need to add the right-handed to the roster considering his terrible command and control – which have always been bad and will definitely not be helped by the time off. Even with a fastball that can touch 95 mph and a good curveball, it’s unlikely that a team would have taken a Rule 5 risk on him, nor would he have survived on a Major League roster for the entire season.

On the plus side, Vega has pitched in both of the last two seasons but, like Kahn, he was added to the roster despite his inability to find the strike zone. His rates from Double-A in 2008 include a 5.77 BB/9 and a 6.55 K/9. That creates a stunning 1.14 K/BB rate. The right-handed reliever allowed 67 hits in 68.2 innings and gave up just three home runs (0.39 HR/9). The Colombian throws 91-93 mph with an average breaking ball and change-up.

Wilson parlayed a breakout 2008 season into a 40-man roster spot. The 25-year-old outfielder posted a line of .276/.388/.549 with an ISO of .273 in Double-A. Some caution must be taken with his numbers, though. He was old for the league and it was his third attempt at the level. At 28.8%, Wilson did a nice job of reducing his strikeout rates from 2007 (42.8%) and 2006 (34.1%). The outfielder has definite flaws and will likely never hit for average at the Major League level, but he would have become a minor league free agent if he had not been added to the roster. This buys the organization a little more time to ensure 2008 was indeed a fluke.

Halman, on the other hand, is an outfielder who is oozing with undeniable potential. The 21-year-old split the season between High-A ball and Double-A and hit 29 home runs and stole 31 bases, making him a 30-30 threat. Like Wilson, though, Halman does not currently project to hit for average after batting .268 in High-A and .277 in Double-A (as well as a career .262 average). To succeed at higher levels, he will also need to take more walks after posting rates of 5.9 BB% and 6.4 BB% this past season. He looks like Mike Cameron without the Gold Glove defence or Chris Young with less patience.

The big news of the day in baseball is that the Texas Rangers have officially asked Michael Young to move to third base to make room for hot prospect Elvis Andrus, and that he was offended enough by that to either request or demand a trade. After all, he was just awarded his first gold glove as a shortstop, and I’m certain that he feels he’s a good defensive player, despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary.

The UZR that we publish here on FanGraphs from the BIS data source has him as an atrocious fielder in 2004 and 2005, but merely just not good from 2006 to 2008. John Dewan’s +/- system, based on the same BIS data, agrees with that assessment. The UZR data that MGL has published based on the Stats Inc data is also in agreement. While there was a rough transition for Young, he’s gotten quite a bit better at shortstop over the last few years, to the point where he’s now just not good instead of disastrous. After working that hard, it’s not surprising that he feels offended at being asked to move off the position.

It’s for the best, though.

A current projection for Young’s defense in 2009 at shortstop would be around -7 or -8 runs, and getting worse by the year. He is 32 years old, and defense peaks at about age 24 or 25 – he’s a pretty long way from his defensive prime. It’s not hard to see him getting back to that -10 to -15 range as an SS pretty soon, especially if he gets bit by an injury or too. And really, there’s very few circumstances where it’s worth it to an organization to keep a -10 to -15 defender at a premium position, especially when they have an opening on the roster at an easier spot to defend.

The Rangers don’t really have a long term third baseman hanging around, but Andrus looks like a legitimate major league shortstop in the making. Andrus is almost certainly the better defender of the two, and if the goal is to have Young stick in Texas while surrounding him with the best talent possible, having him slide to third base to get Andrus’ glove into the line-up makes a lot of sense.

However, that brings us to the second part of the news story – Young apparently has little interest in moving to third base and would prefer to be traded. Does having Young at third make more sense for the Rangers than having no Young at all?

Young is clearly in decline, as we talked about a few months ago. His win values the last three years are 3.6 wins in 2006, 2.6 wins in 2007, and 1.7 wins in 2008. CHONE thinks he’s going to bounce back and be a +2.5 win player in 2009, so he’s not without value, but he’s not the all-star that he’s made out to be anymore.

However, as a third baseman, his defensive deficiencies could be hidden – there’s just fewer opportunities for third baseman to use their gloves, so Young’s issues going to his left wouldn’t be as magnified as they are at shortstop. He’s going to project as a league average-ish hitter either way, and the difference in position adjustments would be mostly covered by his expected improvement in relative defensive performance. He’s a +2 to +2.5 win player at either SS or 3B, though there’s probably some pretty significant decline coming in future years.

Can you trade Young given his contract? He’s due something like $60 to $65 million over the next five years (part of the $80 million extension he signed has already been paid), which values him as a +2.5 to +3.0 win player going forward. Given that he’s a +2.0 to +2.5 win player right now and headed for his 32-36 seasons, the contract costs more than Young is worth, especially in this market. If the Rangers can actually find a team that values him as a shortstop and will take his entire contract off their hands, it’s worth pursuing. $12 million buys a lot in free agency right now, and it seems extremely unlikely that Young would be able to demand a 5 year, $60 to $65 million contract if he were available on the free market.

In reality, I don’t expect a real suitor to step forward for Young. The teams that need shortstops already low-balled Rafael Furcal this winter, and Orlando Cabrera is currently struggling to drum up interest. Having Young accept a move to third base is likely the best scenario for all involved.

The offseason for the Atlanta Braves certainly has not gone as planned. Making headlines more for controversy surrounding departures, trade rumors and pending agreements than actual acquisitions, GM Frank Wren has had his hands very full. After missing the playoffs for the third consecutive season, the Braves had hoped to enter the 2009 campaign with, at the very least, a retooled starting rotation. The team has also been linked to a few hitters but, as of right now, they are either off the table or not yet donning the Atlanta uniform.

With Tim Hudson out for at least half of the 2009 season, the contracts of Tom Glavine and John Smoltz expired, and Mike Hampton taking his medical history to Houston, the only pitchers assured of returning were Jorge Campillo and Jair Jurrjens. Wren then acquired Javier Vazquez from the White Sox to bolster the rotation. The Braves were believed to be big players in the Jake Peavy sweepstakes, but things seemingly went haywire with regards to that potential deal.

The Padres expressed interest in Yunel Escobar as part of the return, but the Braves were hesitant to add him to the mix. The Peavy talks then escalated with the Cubs, as Escobar’s supposed backup, Brent Lillibridge, was shipped to the South Siders as part of the Vazquez deal. When the Padres came back to the Braves, Wren became even more hesitant to include Escobar given that Lillibridge no longer belonged to the organization. And this isn’t even including the rumored Escobar-for-Ryan Ludwick deal that surfaced back in November.

Things would get even more peculiar, though Wren did start off nicely by inking David Ross to a 2-yr/$3 mil deal to backup Brian McCann.

Perhaps the team felt that Escobar actually was expendable as they heavily pursued free agent shortstop Rafael Furcal. Forgive me for not delving deep into all of that drama, but the reports that circulated involved stories of gentleman’s handshakes and agreements to sign. In fact, according to several websites, the signing had all but taken place. I remember because several of the writers here, myself included, discussed who would pen the analysis.

Before long, Furcal had returned to the Dodgers and the Braves had reportedly cut ties with his agency group. The “disrespectful actions” soon turned into a he said/she said match of which Furcal took no part.

Then, the unthinkable happened, as John Smoltz inked a one year deal with the Red Sox. Both the Braves and Red Sox offered Smoltz incentive laden contracts, but the Sox must have had provided a higher base salary. Regardless, Chipper Jones became furious that the team allowed Smoltz to leave, and the Braves ownership seemed incredulous that Smoltz could leave.

From there, things began to turn around. Kenshin Kawakami, a 33-yr old right-handed pitcher from Japan, signed a 3-yr deal to join the rotation. The Braves also became the apparent frontrunners in the Derek Lowe sweepstakes, potentially forging together a rotation of: Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, and Kenshin Kawakami.

The Braves are also considered to be among the few realistic suitors for Adam Dunn and have even been linked to Andruw Jones. Whether or not anything happens remains to be seen, but this has definitely been anything but an ordinary offseason for Frank Wren.

It is not likely that he will acquire Ryan Ludwick or Jake Peavy. And regardless of how the Furcal and Smoltz situations played out, neither will play for Atlanta next year. Don’t let what has not happened sour the entire offseason, however, as they did look aggressive in quickly snatching up Ross, going after Vazquez, signing Kawakami, pursuing Lowe, and emerging as a potential destination for Dunn. A picture-perfect offseason? Heck, no. A successful one, nonetheless? Let’s revisit that come March, but signing Lowe and Dunn may help fans in Atlanta forget the Smoltz and Furcal tabloid-like drama.

We’ve talked about it multiple times, but the Boston Red Sox aggression this off-season is being placed in a handful of lottery tickets. With the signing of Takashi Saito, nothing has changed. Entering the off-season, the Red Sox had three areas of need: catcher, middle relief, and to a far lesser extent shortstop. With Saito, Ramon Ramirez, and whomever the John Smoltz/Brad Penny signings bump out of the rotation, Boston can place a strikethrough on middle relief.

2008 marked Saito’s third season in America and his fewest appearances and innings yet. The causation of Saito’s decline was his right elbow, and during the off-season, Saito underwent a non-surgical procedure to repair the damage. It’s hard to know exactly how effective the method will be, but the Sox are only on the hook for between 1.5 to 2.5 million. Incentives can earn Saito up to 7 million, and there is a club option. All and all, you are talking about an insignificant financial loss if Saito’s arm explodes in the spring.

CHONE has Saito at 47 innings and a 2.82 FIP while Marcels says 55 innings and a 3.15 FIP. If he’s somewhere in between, say 50 innings and a 3 FIP along with a middle reliever’s leverage (around 0.6), Saito will be worth about 0.7 WAR, or 3.6 million in the free agent market. If Saito is more of a set-up man, and has a WAR closer to 1, his value could deter closer to 6 million.

The Sox are obviously high on the win and revenue curves, which makes the one million trade off more than worthwhile. Without knowing the exact plateaus that Saito needs to reach, I’ll assume the Sox are going to get their money’s worth one way or the other. The best is Saito becoming yet another shutdown Boston reliever, the worst? Well, the Sox lose some money.

Red Sox sign Mark Kotsay (1/1.5)

Given the recent signing of Rocco Baldelli, this seems like a rather smart move. Kotsay’s job description includes being the fifth outfield and reserve first baseman – same as last season – at the same time I do question why the Red Sox didn’t attempt and sign Eric Hinske instead. Kotsay’s offensive production has been decisively below average since 2004, and 2009 doesn’t expect to be any different. CHONE has Kotsay at -4.8 wRAA and Marcels at -11.1, although I would expect those numbers to be closer to average if Kotsay plays mostly against righties. Kotsay’s defensive ratings over the past few seasons haven’t been pretty either:

2006: -6.7
2007: -3.6
2008: -5.3

During that time Kotsay has played most of his games in the spacious Oakland Coliseum and Fenway Park, so it’s quite possible his defensive ratings are skewed, and The Fans Scouting Report still liked Kotsay. It’s odd to credit the durability factor to Mark Kotsay of all players, but his health has shown to be more sustainable than Baldelli’s, and that’s why he’s in this position.

The other end of Brad Penny and John Smoltz signing with the Red Sox has finally hit, as the two players DFA were claimed on waivers.

Padres claim Virgil Vasquez off waivers

Vasquez is a righty who spent most of last season in Triple-A. Vasquez produced decent strikeout rates and is a control pitcher, walking less than 2.10 per nine, but yields too many homeruns. In 16.6 innings for the Tigers Vasquez allowed seven homeruns. As someone who sits in the low 90’s yet still uses his fastball more than half of the time, Vasquez is prone to leaving pitches over the plate and promptly watching them fly into the stands. Naturally, that makes him a fit for Petco Park.

Vasquez will join a congregation of fringe starter/reliever types in San Diego next season as the Padres attempt to gather as many lottery tickets as possible.

Rays claim Dewon Day off waivers

The Rays mark the third organization for Day since the season ended. Day spent 2008 with the Chicago White Sox, was waived, claimed by Boston, and now waived again. Day’s fastball sits in the low 90’s but can touch the mid-90’s but has issues locating. Day also throws a slider, and generates groundballs and strikeouts from it. The aforementioned Vasquez allowed 34 homeruns last season, Day has allowed about half of that during his career.

The Rays now have about 16 relief options heading to camp, where they all fall into place is anyone’s guess.

Pedro Martinez is no doubtedly a Hall of Fame pitcher and one of the best in the history of the sport. In fact, many feel that his 1999-2000 seasons are the best of all time. Right now, though, his durability has seemingly fallen by the wayside and his performance has suffered from decline as well. After pitching for the New York Mets the last few seasons, Martinez has hit free agency once more, this time in one of the biggest buyer’s markets we have seen.

Which makes it somewhat surprising why he has reportedly turned down a 1-yr/$7 mil offer from an unknown team.

Granted, this team apparently plays in the American League, and it would be very understandable for any pitcher to prefer the friendlier confines of the senior circuit. Still, one has to wonder whether or not his motives lie in the above reason or if they stem from $7 mil being too low for his liking.

From 2006-08, Pedro has spent his fair share of time on the disabled list, averaging just 16 starts and 90 innings per season. His ERA in that span is around 4.75 and his FIP is not too far behind. Suffice it to say, the Pedro pitching right now is a far cry from the dominating force at the turn of the millennium. Still, he has value as a starting pitcher, but $7+ mil in value?

To find out his worth, let us turn to the projection systems. Bill James seems to be the outlier here, with Marcel and CHONE placing Martinez in the same general vicinity of performance. As it stands, Pedro projects to pitch around 105 innings with a 4.70 FIP. The replacement level in the National League, for starting pitchers, is right around 5.50.

The issue with his performance deals more with his actual playing time. Given his recent history, 175-200 innings simply does not look even close to feasible. At 105 innings, his current projection, Pedro would be worth +9 runs, or under one win. At fair market value, that commands a salary of $4.3 mil.

Perhaps the 105 innings is too low given that he has had ample time to recover from injuries. What if he logs 150 innings this season with a 4.70 FIP? In that scenario, Pedro would allow 78 runs compared to the 92 surrendered by a replacement starter. This advantage of +14 runs converts to around +1.4 wins, a fair market value of $6.7 mil.

Judging by these calculations it appears that Martinez either:

a) Wants to pitch in the NL even if his salary is below $7 mil,
b) Believes he can exceed 150 IP while sustaining an FIP near 4.70, or
c) Feels that even if maxes out at 150 IP, his FIP will be much better than 4.70

For the sake of semantics, I don’t mean to suggest that Pedro uses FIP or calculates his value above replacement level, but rather that he believes he will surpass these projections. At 150 IP and a 4.70 FIP, he is worth $6.7 mil, very close to the $7 mil deal he just turned down. If we assume that he does not care about league as much as money, which could be a faulty assumption, let’s see what he would have to do in scenarios b and c to be worth more than $7 mil.

If he sustains a 4.70 FIP in 2009, to be worth more than $7 mil, Martinez would need to produce at least +1.5 wins. In terms of our calculations, he needs to be about +15 runs above replacement. After 150 innings, though, the 4.60 FIP for a replacement level reliever comes into play because a replacement level starter isn’t going to pitch more than 150 innings. To reach +15 runs, do you know how many innings Pedro would need to pitch? I’ll give you a hint as to the general range: at 200 innings of 4.70 FIP pitching, he still wouldn’t be there.*

*-You may be wonderng how he could be worth +14 runs at a 4.70 FIP in 150 innings yet need 70 more innings at that FIP to gain one more run of production. The reasoning is that the replacement level FIP for an NL reliever is 4.60, which is actually better than Pedro’s projected mark. Therefore, his production at any FIP above 4.60 will look better in just 150 innings than it will after the fact because his 4.70 projection is worse than the 4.60 replacement level for relievers.

Pedro would need the replacement level FIP for NL relievers to be above 4.70 for him to be able to amass +15 runs with a 4.70 FIP himself.

What about the other scenario, the one involving around 150 innings with an FIP much better than 4.70? If he posts a 4.60 FIP in 150 innings, his production is +15 runs. At a 4.50 FIP and 150 innings his production is +17 runs, and this runs total rises by two for every tenth shaved off of his FIP in 150 innings. And also, with a 4.50 FIP or lower, he does not lose any value when the reliever calculations come into play.

Basically, for Pedro to be worth $7+ mil, assuming there is no way he exceeds 170+ innings, he needs to reach any of the following:

a) 150+ IP at a 4.60 FIP
b) 140+ IP at a 4.50 FIP
c) 130+ IP at a 4.40 FIP
d) 115+ IP at a 4.30 FIP

These options do not look too unrealistic given what his performance could look like if he is fully healed. If he can meet or exceed the scenarios listed above, his fair market value will exceed $7 mil based on production alone, before even factoring in what he adds to attendance and, potentially, merchandise.

We do not know the true motive behind his rejection of the 1-yr/$7 mil deal, but it does not seem to be as ludicrous of a decision based on the above calculations. How the buyer’s market will effect him is yet to be seen, but he likely has at least one somewhat effective year left in him.

In a vacuum, the Mets signing of Tim Redding looks fine. A one-year deal will pay Redding 2.25 million. Reasonable for a back-end starter with Redding’s history, but taken in context, the Mets cannot withdraw interest from Derek Lowe over this signing. As Eric outlined recently, the Mets rotation currently stands at something like this:

Johan Santana
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Jonathon Niese

With Redding thrown in either as the four or the five, depending on how high the Mets are on Niese. Eric concluded the Mets were near the Phillies rotation level, but simply being equal shouldn’t be the goal. The Mets are high on the win and revenue curve, suggesting they have added incentive to sign Lowe.

I previously stated that Redding’s signing isn’t bad in a vacuum, and it’s not. CHONE has him at a 4.98 FIP and Marcels at 4.77. If he falls in between that over ~ 160 innings, Redding is worth around 1 win. If he lives up to that, the Mets are getting a bargain deal. The problem is adding another sub-average starter to a rotation stricken with average all ready.

Lowe’s expectations are closer to 3.5 wins, adding him and Redding (in place of Niese) has the Mets looking at a 3-4 win improvement. Instead, they’re actually downgrading from Oliver Perez, albeit at a more suitable price and rolling with two 1-1.5 win starters in the back of their rotation.

Redding: solid addition, but not the one the Mets should be focused on.

Man, I feel bad for Royals fans. Today, they announced a two year contract for Willie Bloomquist, worth a total of $3 million. That gives us this unholy quarter of transactions:

Kyle Farnsworth – 2 years, $9 million, 2006 to 2008: 0.1 wins above replacement
Mike Jacobs – 1 year, $3.5 million, 2006 to 2008: 0.7 wins above replacement
Horacio Ramirez – 1 year, $1.9 million, 2006 to 2008: 0.2 wins above replacement
Willie Bloomquist – 2 years, $3 million, 2006 to 2008: 0.3 wins above replacement

Those Win Value totals are not per year, but three year totals. Over the last three seasons, that foursome has been worth 1.3 wins combined. That’s 12 player-seasons to accumulate just over one marginal win. If you were trying to scrape up examples of major league players who represent replacement level performance, you couldn’t do much better than this group.

That those four will earn a collective $11.4 million in 2009 is pretty staggering. $11.4 million for four guys who, if everything goes right, will add something like one win to the Royals roster next year. $11.4 million for one win. I guess it’s better than the $12 million they spent to get 0.2 wins from Jose Guillen last winter, but that’s in the same way that getting stabbed is better than getting shot.

Dayton Moore came from Atlanta with a strong record of player development. He’s going to have be a Hall of Fame caliber GM at cultivating talent from within his own organization to overcome what can only be described as a devastatingly poor ability to evaluate major league players.

Really, in a market that could only be described as the best buyer’s market we’ve seen in a long time, Dayton Moore has still managed to squander money on unproductive players who do nothing to help his team win. That’s amazing.