As most of you know, the Win Values we present here on FanGraphs are wins above a replacement level player. Replacement level, essentially, is the expected performance you could get from a player who costs nothing to acquire and makes the league minimum. That’s the baseline that players add value over – performance over their no-cost substitute.

However, I know examples can be extremely helpful, so starting on Monday, we began looking at some players who currently personify replacement level, and what their respective organizations should expect from them in 2009. We’ve already covered catcher, first base, second base, and shortstop, and we’ll move on through all of the positions the rest of this week.

Third Base

As we talked about earlier this winter, there’s a lot of crossover between second base and third base. Of the players below, most of them have experience at both positions, and several of them were signed for their potential versatility to play multiple spots. Their availability continues to show that the gap between 2B and 3B isn’t as large as is normally perceived.

Jose Castillo, Washington, .299 wOBA
Brooks Conrad, Atlanta, .295 wOBA
Chris Gomez, Baltimore, .294 wOBA
Andy Phillips, Pittsburgh, .341 wOBA
Terry Tiffee, Philadelphia, .328 wOBA
Jesus Guzman, San Francisco, .303 wOBA
Joel Guzman, Washington, .316 wOBA

That’s an average wOBA of .311, a bit better than the second baseman. Let’s put that through the run conversion formula:

((.311 – .330) / 1.20) * 600 = -9.5

That’s not bad – they’re about one win below average as hitters. However, what they have extra in offense they give back in defense. This is a pretty lousy group of defenders. Castillo is probably league average at third, and Gomez is somewhere in that vicinity as well, while the rest are somewhere between bad and cover-your-eyes terrible. I’d say the upper and lower bounds of defensive expectations for this group would be -5 to -10, so we’ll split the difference and call it -7.5

So, that gives us -9.5 offense, -7.5 defense, and +2.5 position adjustment for a total of -14.5, or about 1.5 wins below average. The theme continues.

When the free agent classifications are issued at the end of the season, of immediate interest are the players who garner the Type A and Type B status. After all, these players comprise the tops of their respective positions. Additionally, signing and/or losing them may result in draft picks acquired or lost. For the most part, teams have been much less willing to spring for the Type A free agent this season given the current economic climate and the fact that they will lose a draft pick. Otherwise it makes little sense that players like Orlando Hudson and Orlando Cabrera still do not have a place to call home.

There are other free agents, however, who do not receive much attention. These players clearly did not have as great of a 2008 season as others, but still have some potential value. Let’s take a look at a few unranked free agents who might be able to help teams next season.

Joe Crede played just 97 games for the White Sox last season, mostly due to an injured back. In that time he hit 17 HR with a .330 wOBA and posted a +5.5 UZR rating. Even though he missed significant time, he still produced +1.8 wins, right around the mark of a league average player. If his injuries are healed and he can regress to somewhere between 2006 and 2008, there is no reason why Crede could not be a +2.5 win player.

Ray Durham, 37, is one of the elder statesmen of this group. Still, in 41 games with the Brewers to end the 2008 season, Ray hit .280/.369/.477, a .363 wOBA. He even played +2 defense at the keystone corner. He might not be able to handle a full season’s workload, but teams could do much worse than he as a pinch-hitter/spot starter. Of course, if Durham feels he should be starting then some contract issues will arise.

Cliff Floyd spent last season with the Tampa Bay Rays, serving as their designated hitter. The 36-yr old hit to the tune of a .349 wOBA, resulting in +0.6 wins. While it doesn’t seem like much, Floyd managed just 80 games. With Pat Burrell now slated to be their everyday DH, Floyd needs to find some new digs. He might be a liability in the field but can still hit. If he signs with a senior circuit team, a similar role to that of Daryle Ward’s would make the most sense.

Chuck James is the most interesting of this group. His strikeout rate has hovered around the 6.7 mark for the last three years, but in 2008, his walk rate skyrocketed to 6.1. Suffice it to say, he and his 8.36 FIP struggled to stay in the major leagues. James is just 27, however, and he is a lefty who has experienced past success. Sure, Oliver Perez has a better reputation and more “proven” results, but he, himself, is a 27-yr old lefty who has yet to establish the combination of quality and consistency. Maybe James needs to utilize a pitch other than his fastball or changeup but it strikes me as odd that nobody has signed him to a minor league deal with an invitation.

Lastly, we have Pedro Martinez, one of the most dominant pitchers of all time. The issue is that his dominance has faded, but he doesn’t realize that. Well, at least to some extent he doesn’t. Realistically, Martinez is now a #4 or #5 starter on a very good team, perhaps a #3 on a bottomfeeder. His ego likely projects him as a #2 who will rebound from a crappy 2008 campaign. He very well may put together a solid season but there just are not teams out there who are that willing to pay a #5 pitcher #2 money. He eventually will sign somewhere and I would expect him to be better than last year, but the last year or so are ones you kind of wish never took place, so we can keep his dominant years in mind.

These five free agents did not garner Type A or Type B classifications, will not result in draft picks lost or acquired, but could still potentially help a team next season.

On the heels of the Mets vastly overpaying for Oliver Perez on the open market, the Orioles swooped in and grabbed Ty Wigginton on a pretty decent deal.

R.J. Anderson previously covered the decision by the Astros to non-tender Wigginton on the eve of his final arbitration season. At the time, R.J. concluded that Wigginton was worth about $7 million per year on the open market, which still holds up given his offensive projections. He did tally three wins last year after all.

Though Wigginton isn’t expected to repeat his 2008-level of offense, a mark about 1.5 up to perhaps 2.0 wins seems about right, for which he would have normally commanded around $7 to $8 million. This has been no normal winter though and while the open market for starting pitchers has remained robust, there’s been a glut of poor fielding decent hitters combined with a renewed appreciation or awareness of defense by General Managers throughout the league (except in Philadelphia).

All that lead to yet another solid by Baltimore GN Andy MacPhail. From a production standpoint, all Wigginton has to do in order to justify this price tag is produce about a win and a half over replacement over the two years of this contract. If he’s able to get a decent amount of playing time in what is now a slightly crowded corner infield/DH team, Ty should have no problem reaching and exceeding that mark. This also opens up the possibility of MacPhail moving someone like Luke Scott to a team in need of an outfielder.

It probably will not get much notice, especially on a team bound to finish fourth at best in what looks like the toughest division of at least the past decade, but make enough of these smart moves and they will eventually add up to something.

One of the first articles I wrote for this site involved Brian Shouse and his ability to strand runners. In 2007, Shouse, then 39 years old, stranded 60 of his 78 runners inherited. That 77% rate was actually much higher through September 15, when 85% of such runners failed to score. His strand-skill regressed this past season to 67%, but the 40-yr old late blooming lefty specialist put together a 2.81 ERA in 69 games.

Granted, his FIP rose from 2.90 to 3.93, but Shouse improved upon his 2007 WHIP, LOB, and K/BB. Facing so few batters per game likely extends his baseball life expectancy, making him an appealing commodity to several teams. The Rays bit, signing him last week. The exact terms of the deal are still unknown, but it appears to be a 1-yr, $1-2 mil deal with an option for a similar fee.

In 2007, Shouse produced +1.1 wins, worth $4.6 mil. Last season, his +0.4 wins translated to $1.8 mil. His three-year weighted projection calls for somewhere between +0.4 and +0.6 wins next season. At $4.5 mil/win, fair market value falls between $1.8 mil and $2.7 mil. If Andrew Friedman signed Shouse for $2 mil, he is banking on the artist formerly known as strandmaster to repeat last year’s production, if not slightly exceed it.

If the deal pays Shouse $1 mil, then Friedman will be valuing him at around +0.2 wins. Suffice it to say, Shouse should easily surpass that win value, making this contract very reasonable for both sides. A 40-yr old lefty specialist, in this economic climate, simply should not be signed for anything above $2 mil. Even if Shouse’s production completely drops off the table, the Rays have built such a deep and solid bullpen that some may not even notice.

As most of you know, the Win Values we present here on FanGraphs are wins above a replacement level player. Replacement level, essentially, is the expected performance you could get from a player who costs nothing to acquire and makes the league minimum. That’s the baseline that players add value over – performance over their no-cost substitute.

However, I know examples can be extremely helpful, so starting yesterday, we began looking at some players who currently personify replacement level, and what their respective organizations should expect from them in 2009. We’ve already covered first base and catcher, and we’ll move on through the positions this week.

Shortstop

So far, we’ve looked at three positions, and all three have been a mix of decent hitters/bad defenders and bad hitters/good defenders. That’s about to change. Take a look at this group.

Angel Berroa, New York (AL), .292 wOBA
Juan Castro, Los Angeles, .261 wOBA,
Brandon Fahey, Toronto, .277 wOBA,
Luis Hernandez, Kansas City, .263 wOBA
Ivan Ochoa, Boston, .300 wOBA
Omar Vizquel, Texas, .278 wOBA
Jorge Velandia, Philadelphia, .271 wOBA
Chris Woodward, Seattle, .290 wOBA

That’s an average wOBA of .279 – almost as bad as the catchers. Ochoa is the best projected hitter of the bunch, and he just put up a miserable .200/.244/.267 mark in 135 PA in the majors for San Francisco last year. There isn’t a good hitting/mediocre defender in the bunch. There’s a couple of bad hitter/mediocre defenders (Berroa, Woodward) who really don’t belong in the majors, but really, the replacement level shortstops are all the same thing – good glove, no bat types. Whether teams are artificially selecting out offensive shortstops and moving them to other positions prematurely or offense at shortstop is so highly valued that it’s just not available for free is up for discussion, but it’s pretty clear that you can’t get free offense at the position.

Running it through the run value formula, we get the following:

((.279 – .330) / 1.2) * 600 = -25.5

These guys project to be about 25 runs worse than a league average hitter over a full season. As a group, they’re about average defensively (Vizquel/Castro/Ochoa are canceled out by Woodward/Berroa/Velandia), so we’ll call defense neutral. +7.5 runs for the position adjustment, and that leaves us with -18 runs – just slightly better than two wins below average. The trend continues.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at third base and then move to the outfield. But, given how this is going so far, I’d imagine I can already start writing the conclusions now.

The Chicago Cubs and Oakland Athletics completed a trade yesterday, with Major League reliever Mike Wuertz headed to Oakland to help solidify the bullpen. The Cubs received back to minor league prospects: shortstop Justin Sellers and outfielder Richie Robnett.

Sellers is the better prospect of the two players. The 23-year-old middle infielder will help to fill the void left by the trade of middle infielder Ronny Cedeno, who is now a Seattle Mariner. Sellers’ batting average has taken a bit of a roller coaster ride in the past three years, while playing at A-ball, High-A, and Double-A. It has gone from .241 to .274 to .255. His line at Double-A in 2008 was .255/.333/.367 with an ISO of .112 in 439 at-bats. His rates included a 9.7 BB% and a 17.5 K%. Sellers also has the ability to steal 10-15 bases a season. Defensively, he has all the actions needed to be a successful shortstop and possesses good range. His arm, though, is average and could lead to him moving to second base on a full-time basis down the road. Right now, Sellers is a defensive-minded middle infielder who needs to get stronger and looks like a future utility player.

Robnett, a former No.1 draft pick out of Fresno State, will likely head to Triple-A to provide depth for the Cubs. With more than 10 outfielders on the club’s 40-man roster, Oakland could afford to part with the 25-year-old, left-handed hitter. Injuries took their toll on Robnett’s 2008 season and he appeared in just 82 games, split mostly between Double-A and Triple-A. In 208 at-bats at the senior level, Robnett hit .236/.307/.351 with an ISO of .115. His rates included a 9.2 BB% and a 29.3 K%. In 2007, at Double-A, he hit .267/.316/.465 with an ISO of .198. Although he’s shown some power (including massive raw power), Robnett failed to get on base at a regular rate in the upper minors, which certainly made him expendable in Oakland.

It’s a good trade for both clubs because Oakland gets a proven reliever with MLB experience and Chicago gets some much-needed depth.

As most of you know, the Win Values we present here on FanGraphs are wins above a replacement level player. Replacement level, essentially, is the expected performance you could get from a player who costs nothing to acquire and makes the league minimum. That’s the baseline that players add value over – performance over their no-cost substitute.

However, I know examples can be extremely helpful, so starting yesterday, we began looking at some players who currently personify replacement level, and what their respective organizations should expect from them in 2009. We’ve already covered first base and catcher, and we’ll move on through the positions this week.

Second Base

I thought about just combining all the middle infield spots into one big pool, because let’s face it, a minor league FA shortstop is perfectly capable of playing second base in the majors. However, there are some differences in skills between SS and 2Bs that I figured we should not ignore, so I split them up by the position. Here’s the list.

Chris Burke, San Diego, .318 wOBA
Jason Bourgeois, Milwaukee, .313 wOBA
Jolbert Cabrera, Baltimore, .296 wOBA
Andy Cannizaro, Cleveland, .303 wOBA
Callix Crabbe, Seattle, .324 wOBA
Ryan Roberts, Arizona, .321 wOBA
Luis Maza, Los Angeles, .304 wOBA
Argenis Reyes, New York (NL), .274 wOBA
Pete Orr, Washington, .299 wOBA

The average wOBA for the group is .306. For the most part, they have a common skillset – some contact ability, below average power, decent but not great range, and some speed but not a huge stolen base threat. As usual, let’s convert wOBA to runs.

((.304 – .330) / 1.20) * 600 = -13

13 runs below average with the bat, -5 defensively (Reyes and Burke are good with the glove, the rest not so much), and a +2.5 run position adjustment leaves us with these guys being right around 15 runs below average. So far, so good – all three positions we’ve looked at at have been between -1.5 and -2.0 wins per 600 PA, right in line with generally accepted replacement level.

It wasn’t too long ago the Athletics added Russ Springer to perhaps the best pen in baseball. Naturally, Billy Beane decided that wasn’t enough, and traded two minor leaguers to the Chicago Cubs for Mike Wuertz.

Since 2005 Wuertz has been solid, posting a FIP over 4 only once, naturally that came last season. Wuertz strikeout rates were down substantially in 2008 as his fastball usage dropped 12%, down to a measly 29%. On average Wuertz fastball remained where you would expect it to be, between 90 and 91 miles per hour. Josh Kalk’s player cards suggest Wuertz fastball moved “up” and in to righties more in 2008 than 2007.

Wuertz was demoted to Triple-A during mid-season, and as he returned, so did some of his strikeouts. The pattern was strikingly similar to 2007, as you can see below.

Over the last three seasons Wuertz has earned win values of 0.2, 0.7, and 0.5, an average of a little more than 0.4 wins per season, successful for a middle reliever. Wuertz’ stuff has generated more than 40% ground balls since 2005, including ~54% in 2006. He’ll make 1.1 million in 2009, and will be eligible for his third year of arbitration following 2009, but will still be two seasons from free agency thanks to achieving Super-Two status after 2008.

In return, the Cubs receive Richie Robnett and Justin Sellers. Neither is much of a prospect, although Robnett is a former first round pick, for whatever that’s worth. Sellers went undrafted in the Rule 5 draft, suggesting he’s not an overly desirable player either; as a middle infielder in Double-A, one would think a team like the Pirates or Royals could use him as their utility infielder.

The Athletics bullpen continues to get deeper. Again, we just reviewed the Springer deal, but the A’s now have Joey Devine, Brad Ziegler, Springer, Santiago Casilla, Jerry Blevins, Wuertz, and probably one more reliever (Josh Outman?) at their dispense on a nightly basis. There’s not a bad pitcher amongst the bunch.

Meanwhile the Cubs bullpen should have a slot for Angel Guzman available and increased leverage situations for Aaron Heilman and who have you. Of course, the way Jim Hendry has been working it lately, he may swing him out in a deal for Miguel Batista tomorrow.

As with Jason Varitek, it seemed most likely that Oliver Perez was going to end up back with his “former” team this winter and today that officially came to fruition as Perez agreed to what is being reported as 3-year, $36-million contract.

Perez has had some wild swings in performance over the past three seasons and his projections reflect that, disagreeing with a rather large variance. Just as a recap, here is Oliver Perez’s last five seasons by WAR, starting with the most present: 1.3, 2.2, 0.0, -1.0, 4.5. What to make of that? Clearly the 4.5 now looks like a fluke. Sure, Perez has the stuff to repeat that season, but aside from that year (and even that year his strikeout rate was far higher than expected given his other results), he’s never had the control to post big win rates.

Of all the reasonable systems, Marcel loves Perez the most, but even its projected FIP of 4.52 for Perez is below average (though better than his 2008) and with a reduction in innings, Perez comes out to around 2.1 wins via Marcel. CHONE is the most pessimistic, seeing Perez as posting a FIP near 5 and amounting to 1.1 wins, far closer to his 2008 total of 1.3.

Given a three-year deal at $36 million, the Mets are paying Perez as if he’s a three-win pitcher, a figure Perez has only reached that breakout year in 2004. The Mets are essentially banking on Perez doubling his value while under contract from 2009-11 and that’s not a good bet. I don’t know what kind of deal Ben Sheets is angling after, or what the extent of his medical reports indicate, but given his projected FIPs, Ben Sheets only has to average 76 innings per year to match Oliver Perez in value.

As most of you know, the Win Values we present here on FanGraphs are wins above a replacement level player. Replacement level, essentially, is the expected performance you could get from a player who costs nothing to acquire and makes the league minimum. That’s the baseline that players add value over – performance over their no-cost substitute.

However, I know examples can be extremely helpful, so today, we’re going to start looking at some players who currently personify replacement level, and what their respective organizations should expect from them in 2009. We’ll go through all the positions in order to look at what a replacement level player currently looks like at each spot.

First Base

First baseman who settle for minor league contracts are the quintessential Quad-A players. They’re usually the best hitter on their Triple-A club, but have some flaw that keeps them from getting an everyday job in the majors. For some, it’s a lack of power for at a position that demands it. For others, it’s that power is their only real skill and the sole reason they have a professional career at all. Often, they can be useful platoon players or bench bats, and in best case scenarios (Carlos Pena, for instance), they can turn into legitimate stars. Here’s this year’s crop.

Brad Eldred, Chicago (AL), .321 wOBA,
Mike Sweeney, Seattle, .319 wOBA
Chris Shelton, Seattle, .335 wOBA
Josh Phelps, San Francisco, .355 wOBA
Wes Bankston, Cincinnati, .305 wOBA
Larry Broadway, unsigned, .327 wOBA

It’s an interesting mix of players, ranging from soon-to-be-retired Sweeney to the never-played-in-the-majors Broadway. As expected, the average wOBA for this group is quite a bit higher than the catchers, since first base is where bad defenders try to hide, so the pool of potential players is a lot larger. The average wOBA for this group is .327, which is almost league average offense. Running the run conversion formula again, we see:

((.327 – .330)) / 1.20) * 600 = -1.5 runs

Yes, you can get a league average hitter (essentially) for free. The baseline for offense from a first baseman is essentially league average offense. If you’re not getting that, the guy better be a tremendous fielder, or he’s just not very good.

-1.5 runs on offense, -5 runs on defense (these guys aren’t exactly Mark Grace), and a -12.5 position adjustment gives us the result of these guys being about 19 runs below average per 600 PA. Let’s just call it -20 for round numbers sake. That gives us -2 wins for these minor league free agent first baseman over a full season.