The Strandmaster in Tampa

One of the first articles I wrote for this site involved Brian Shouse and his ability to strand runners. In 2007, Shouse, then 39 years old, stranded 60 of his 78 runners inherited. That 77% rate was actually much higher through September 15, when 85% of such runners failed to score. His strand-skill regressed this past season to 67%, but the 40-yr old late blooming lefty specialist put together a 2.81 ERA in 69 games.

Granted, his FIP rose from 2.90 to 3.93, but Shouse improved upon his 2007 WHIP, LOB, and K/BB. Facing so few batters per game likely extends his baseball life expectancy, making him an appealing commodity to several teams. The Rays bit, signing him last week. The exact terms of the deal are still unknown, but it appears to be a 1-yr, $1-2 mil deal with an option for a similar fee.

In 2007, Shouse produced +1.1 wins, worth $4.6 mil. Last season, his +0.4 wins translated to $1.8 mil. His three-year weighted projection calls for somewhere between +0.4 and +0.6 wins next season. At $4.5 mil/win, fair market value falls between $1.8 mil and $2.7 mil. If Andrew Friedman signed Shouse for $2 mil, he is banking on the artist formerly known as strandmaster to repeat last year’s production, if not slightly exceed it.

If the deal pays Shouse $1 mil, then Friedman will be valuing him at around +0.2 wins. Suffice it to say, Shouse should easily surpass that win value, making this contract very reasonable for both sides. A 40-yr old lefty specialist, in this economic climate, simply should not be signed for anything above $2 mil. Even if Shouse’s production completely drops off the table, the Rays have built such a deep and solid bullpen that some may not even notice.