The Milwaukee Brewers system is loaded with offensive talent – even after the trade for C.C. Sabathia last season, which included top offensive prospect Matt LaPorta. Unfortunately, the pitching depth is thin and the organization has traditionally had a very difficult time keeping top pitching prospects healthy; even current, young MLB pitchers Manny Parra and Yovani Gallardo have had more than their fair share of injuries.

AAA/AA Prospects:
Alcides Escobar could be in the Majors right now, if it were not for the presence of J.J. Hardy at shortstop. Escobar is a gifted fielder who will eventually shift the incumbent shortstop to third base, or possibly out of the city. There have been questions about Escobar’s ability to hit, but he managed a line at Double-A in 2008 of .328/.363/.434 with 34 stolen bases in 546 at-bats. The biggest weakness in his game right now is his lack of patience (5.4 BB%) and lack of power (.106 ISO).

I’ll keep this brief since I wrote a post on Mat Gamel not long ago. He has a chance to be the Brewers’ third baseman by mid-season, but his defense will not allow him to stay there for long. Gamel is likely ticketed for first base or right field.

Current big league catcher Jason Kendall is in the final season of his contract, and prospect Angel Salome could be ready just in time to fill Kendall’s shoes. Had he not been slowed down by injuries, Salome may have already secured a full-time gig. Last season in Double-A, the stout catcher hit .360/.415/.559 with 13 home runs and 83 RBI in just 98 games. It remains to be seen if Salome can show enough defensively to remain behind the plate, which could significantly hurt his future value.

Jeremy Jeffress has had some well-documented issues during his brief pro career. He’ll continue to get chances, though, because of his golden arm. Jeffress can touch the upper 90s with his fastball and also has a curveball that is a plus pitch at times. His change-up is lacking, so he may end up as a late-game reliever. He received a late-season promotion to Double-A in 2008 after spending much of the season in High-A ball where he allowed 65 hits in 79.1 innings, as well as rates of 4.65 BB/9 and 11.57 K/9.

Lorenzo Cain was originally drafted out of high school based on his raw athletic ability. He played in A-ball for much of his first four pro seasons, but he made it to Double-A in the second half of 2008 and even earned a brief, six-game promotion to Triple-A. Cain has 15-20 home run potential and could easily swipe 30 bases. In 2008 at Double-A, he hit .277/.363/.486 with six stolen bases and four homers in 148 at-bats.

A+/A Prospects:
Jonathan Lucroy, like Salome, is an offensive-minded catcher who has question marks surrounding his defense. Even though his work behind the plate is iffy and his arm is average, Lucroy threw out 45% of base stealers in 2008. Offensively, Lucroy has shown that he’s ready for Double-A in just his second full season. The former third-round pick split 2008 between A-ball and High-A. At the senior level, he hit .292/.364/.479 with a .186 ISO.

Outfielder Cole Gillespie is likely ready for the Majors after spending 2008 in Double-A and hitting .281/.386/.472 with an ISO of .190 and 17 stolen bases. He also showed good patience with a walk rate of 14 BB%. His strikeout rates have risen each of the past three seasons, from 18.3 to 21.7 to 22.1 K%. Gillespie is a corner outfielder defensively, but his bat profiles better in center, which will likely relegate him to a fourth-outfielder role at the Major League level.

The Cleveland Indians had to choose between infielder Taylor Green and outfielder Michael Brantley as the player-to-be-named-later in the Sabathia trade last season. The AL organization chose Brantley, and the Brewers were no doubt happy to keep Green on the payroll. The third baseman, though, will miss the first four to six weeks of the season after undergoing wrist surgery. Green hit .289/.382/.443 with an ISO of .153 in 418 High-A at-bats.

SS/R Prospects:
The club added three quality prospects in the 2008 draft. Prep pitcher Jake Odorizzi (32nd overall) posted a 3.48 ERA in 11 rookie ball games. Canadian Brett Lawrie (16th overall) had arguably the best prep bat in the 2008 draft (after Eric Hosmer) but his ultimate home defensively is up in the air, although he will begin his pro career as a catcher. Lawrie is confident and will move as quickly as his defense will let him. Cutter Dykstra, son of Lenny, (54th overall) had a solid debut and hit .271/.367/.438 with an ISO of .167 in 144 at-bats. He could move quickly for a high school player.

Up Next: The Detroit Tigers

These lists do not include all the talented prospects in each system – just a snap shot. Some players have been left out because I have covered them recently and not much has changed (You can link to the older posts from each player’s FanGraphs page) or I am planning a separate post on them in the very near future.

Matthew covered Adam Kennedy’s release just over a week ago, and wrapped it up by asking:

Either way, Adam Kennedy is now out of a job and doesn’t come with the Type A penalty that Orlando Hudson does. It will be interesting to see what kind of market develops for his services given that he’s already being paid for this season by the Cardinals assuming no trade is worked out and he gets fully released. At that point, Kennedy probably shops around for the best chance to receive playing time and/or win a championship depending on his personal priorities because it’s highly unlikely any team would offer him more than the $4 million he would need to benefit out of the process.

Well, not only has the market developed, but there’s actually no need for one anymore. Last night Kennedy signed a minor league deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, reuniting him with former Anaheim Angels bench coach Joe Maddon. As Matthew noted, Kennedy likely shopped around for more playing time, and when he found those options lacking or perhaps unattractive, he turned his attention to winning, and therefore the Rays.

Of course, there’s a chance Kennedy could become the Rays main reserve middle infielder. Willy Aybar played some second base last season, but the team seems to like him more at the corners and an occasional game where he DHs. That leaves Ben Zobrist – a poor fielder – and minor league types such as Ray Olmedo, Elliot Johnson, or a still developing Reid Brignac being called upon if Akinori Iwamura or Jason Bartlett fall to injury.

At next to no cost, it’s hard to not like this move for the Rays. With the addition of Morgan Ensberg and now Kennedy, the Rays have taken infield depth seriously when handing out minor league deals, and held the idea of rejuvenation dear to their hearts.

Oh, how the markets change. Last night, we took a look at Will Ohman, a lefty reliever coming off of the best season of his career, who may be in line to take a 40 percent paycut off of his $1.6 mil salary in 2008. Today, our subject of discussion is Eric Gagne, who, in 2007, posted a +1.1 win value just two-tenths of a win higher than Ohman’s +0.9 last season, yet somehow parlayed that production into a $10 mil salary from the Brewers. The deal was questionable at best at the time of the signing and looked downright foolish at the end of the season.

In 50 games, Gagne posted a 5.44 ERA and 6.13 FIP, actually costing the Brewers an entire win on the season. With a -1.0 WAR, it would have cost the Brewers $4.6 mil just to get back to replacement level at his roster spot. Well, Gagne is going to return to the Brewers in 2009, albeit under much different circumstances. This time around, he is not guaranteed a roster spot, and even if incentives kick in, the contract maxes out at $4.5 mil, under half of last year’s figure.

If he makes the big league roster out of Spring Training, Gagne will earn a base salary of $1.5 mil. Up to $2 mil in incentives can be earned by pitching anywhere from 25-60 games. Lastly, another $1 mil could be had by finishing 50-65 games, which simply isn’t going to happen. Assuming he pitches in 45 games with the major league team, Gagne looks poised to make around $3 mil next season. And yet Will Ohman, with better and more consistent production over the last three years is struggling to sniff $1 mil on a 1-yr deal?

GM Doug Melvin stated that Gagne pitched much better in the second half of the season. In his first 25 games, Gagne produced a 7.03 ERA with 16 BB and 23 K in 24.1 innings. He could still strike hitters out but his control vanished and too many baserunners came around to score. In his next 25 games, the numbers vastly improved to the tune of a 3.68 ERA, 6 BB and 15 K, and a lower home run rate.

Under the lenses of this microscope, the deal looks great for the Brewers. Gagne isn’t guaranteed any money, and if he pitches like he did down the stretch in 2008, his production would likely command the $3-$3.5 mil anyways. If his second half numbers turned out to be flukey and the result of much-needed regression, no harm, no foul, and the Brewers can cut him before the regular season gets underway.

Bringing in formerly great pitchers and giving them a chance to revert to their former selves is a fine tactic utilized by many GMs. Doing so at a $10 mil salary isn’t as sound. A $1.5 mil base salary with potential for incentives, or a deal with similar terms, is the way to go, making this a win for the Brewers.

Nate McLouth became the latest player to join the trend of signing a contract that buys out his arbitration years. Entering his fourth year of service, McLouth today inked a deal that guaranteed three years (all of his remaining arbitration years) and $14.5 million. There’s also a team option on his first free agent year at what works out to be $10.65 million with $1.25 million of that assured to McLouth via a buyout.

McLouth has spent the majority of his career thus far in center field, and not done too well there according to UZR, looking like his ability falls in the -10 to -15 runs per 150 games range. He was -40 plays according to John Dewan’s Plus/Minus last year as well. On the other hand, he won a Gold Glove last season and we all know how those are only given to the very best fielders in the game. I will assume for now that McLouth is going to stay in center field as the Pirates do not seem to have anyone to press him out of this role. Splitting the difference on his fielding rating and adding in the +2.5 positional adjustment for center field leaves us with an even -10.

On the hitting side, McLouth maintained the gains he made in a half year during 2007 and even improved on them slightly over the course of a full slate of 2008 plate appearances. Marcel still sees some significant regression with McLouth’s dismal 2006 on record, but CHONE thinks McLouth will hold on to being a .360-70 wOBA hitter. We also have to project a reduction in at bats going forward to account for injury possiblities. Lumping all those together and we get a figure of about 10-15 runs above average for McLouth’s bat. I think that’s a bit low myself given that the projection systems are seeing McLouth’s part-time work in 2007 as a reason to keep his expected at bats in 2009 a lot lower than seems prudent.

Throwing in the 20 runs for replacement and McLouth’s total value for 2009 looks to be in the 2 to 2.5 win range, worth $8-11 million on the open market per season. However, McLouth is still tied to arbitration, so his expected compensation is diminished by the 40/60/80 estimation to 1.8 years of open market seasons for the three years. With the 10% reduction in total value you expect players to take off for the security of a long term deal, McLouth warrants around $15.6 million for his arbitration years according to Marcel and CHONE. Including the option buyout, McLouth is guaranteed %15.75 million.

To me, there’s good reason to expect McLouth to outperform his projections next year simply by dint of staying healthy and getting 500+ at bats. Because of that, I think the Pirates did well here, though McLouth isn’t getting fleeced either. However, I wonder how much money he leaves on the table were he to have a 2009 similar to that of his 2008?

With the marquis free agent relievers all reporting to their new digs and Juan Cruz figuring out exactly what the heck is going on with his status, much attention has been turned to three lefty relievers: Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes, and Joe Beimel. While Reyes and Beimel have been linked to a couple of different teams, both apparently pale in comparison to Will Ohman, who now has six teams vying for his services. Ohman, 31, spent last season with the Atlanta Braves after four years with the Chicago Cubs.

In 58.2 innings spread over 83 games, Ohman posted a 3.17 FIP that proved good enough to add +0.9 wins to the Braves. This mark isn’t too far off his three-year average of +0.7 wins, which is close to his projection next season. At fair market value, +0.7 wins would command between $3 and $3.2 mil. If that fee seems a bit on the high side, perhaps the more realistic fair market value for such production falls in the $2.2-$2.6 mil range. Being able to sign an effective lefty like Ohman for somewhere in that range of salaries would be a relative steal, yet the teams interested in acquiring the quirky lefty do not feel the same.

In fact, several are reported to be unlikely to go past $1 mil with Ohman. Ohman currently has offers on the table from the Pirates, Padres, and Marlins, but is waiting to hear back from the Phillies, Mets, and Dodgers. The Phillies would be a nice fit for Ohman given the suspension to JC Romero, but Ruben Amaro Jr does not seem too keen on paying $2-$3 mil to a pitcher who will realistically just fill in for two months of the season. The Mets seem to feel the same way given the upgrades made to their bullpen. Adding Ohman would be nice but they aren’t going to “break the bank” to bring him in.

If the reports that the Pirates, Padres, and Marlins—teams that have made Ohman offers—are not willing to go past $1 mil on a 1-yr deal are true, and that the contending teams with interest do not want to “overpay” it becomes quite possible that Ohman’s salary in 2009 might decline by 40 percent following the best season he has put together.

And if Ohman signs first, does that then increase the value of both Reyes and Beimel given the lower supply of available and effective relievers? Perhaps Ohman would like to see Beimel or Reyes sign first and use those contracts as leverage. Unfortunately, while teams have expressed interest, it is halfway through February and negotiations have not even begun for several of these suitors. These are certainly strange times and it is even odder to consider a 40% forced paycut on only a 1-yr deal to someone like Ohman coming a year after Francisco Cordero received his ridiculously lucrative 4-yr deal.

After this afternoon’s graph, some of you requested a breakdown by starters and relievers to remove any potential bias among soft-tossing relievers getting inflated strikeout rates due to their situational usage. So, here you go – I broke the group presented in the first graph into greater than 100 IP and less than 100 IP, which is a good enough proxy, and redid the graphs.

Obviously, there are a lot more relievers than starters, but the data is basically the same. As you can see, the slope of the regression line is very similar – there doesn’t appear to be a significant difference between starting and relieving in terms of correlation between fastball velocity and strikeout rate. The r (not squared, which I’ve adjusted based on a couple good comments this afternoon) is .43 for starters and .38 for relievers.

Of course, this is for major league players only. How does velocity interact with strikeout rate in the minors? We’ll look at that tomorrow.

The Chicago White Sox system is languishing at the bottom of the barrel in the American League, thanks in part to poor draft choices and a win-now mentality that has stripped the club of a number of key prospects. However, the Javier Vazquez and Nick Swisher trades have helped to restock the system a bit and keep it from challenging Houston as the worst system in the Majors. My biggest question, though, is how can other general managers even trade for a starting pitcher from Kenny Williams after his history of (allegedly) dealing damaged goods, time and time again?

AAA/AA Prospects:
Left-hander Aaron Poreda, a former No. 1 draft pick, is close to being Major-League ready, which is good news for a club that currently has Bartolo Colon penciled in as the No. 5 starter. Poreda split 2008 between High-A ball and Double-A. In 15 Double-A starts, the southpaw allowed 81 hits in 87.2 innings of work and also posted rates of 2.26 BB/9 (His control is better than his command) and 7.39 K/9. Personally, I see Poreda as a dominating late-game reliever with a mid-90s fastball, because he has yet to develop his secondary stuff.

Clayton Richard is another southpaw who has eyes on the No. 5 spot in the rotation. He relies on his secondary stuff (especially the change-up) more often than Poreda and averages out around 90 mph with his sinker. He was lit up in his MLB debut and allowed 61 hits in 47.2 innings. He also posted rates of 2.45 BB/9 and 5.48 K/9. Richard does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and has allowed just 23 home runs during the past three seasons.

I wrote about Chris Getz recently, so I’ll keep this brief. He has a solid chance of being the opening day second baseman for the White Sox, or at least on the bench.

Brandon Allen has massive power – the best in the system. The first baseman was originally drafted in the fifth round out of high school in 2004. He struggled to hit for average during his first three pro seasons but has taken huge steps forward in each of the past two seasons, positioning himself to eventually replace Jim Thome or Paul Konerko. Last season between High-A and Double-A, Allen slugged 29 home runs and maintained an average above .275. He’s also made strides in reducing his strikeout rates, with a respectable (for a power hitter) 26.8 K% at Double-A.

Cole Armstrong, 25, does not have a huge ceiling, but the organization is short on catchers and he’s close to being MLB ready after splitting 2008 between Double-A and Triple-A. At the senior level, Armstrong hit .275/.310/.406 with rates of 3.5 BB% and 19.6 K%. He is a good defender, which will help him carve out a career as a back-up. His 2009 chances are hurt by the fact he hits left-handed (like No. 1 catcher A.J. Pierzynski).

A+/A Prospects:
John Ely, 22, had a nice 2008 season even though his ERA was 4.71. He allowed just 142 hits in 145.1 innings and posted rates of 2.85 BB/9 and 8.30. His FIP was 4.02. Ely had a rough July when batters hit .354 against him and his FIP was 6.04. He turned things around in August, though, and held batters to a .206 average. Ely has a low-90s fastball, a plus change-up and a good breaking ball. He should begin 2009 in Double-A.

Gordon Beckham was the club’s No. 1 draft pick in 2008 and is an offensive-minded shortstop. He signed late and appeared in just 14 games, but he hit .310 with three home runs in A-ball. Beckham also showed patience at the plate in a small sample size. After the regular season, the 22-year-old infielder lit up the Arizona Fall League with a line of .394/.468/.652 in 18 games. He hit .529 with runners in scoring position. Potentially, he could begin the year in Double-A.

John Shelby Jr.’s 2007 and 2008 seasons (in A-ball and High-A) were very, very similar – which can be good or bad depending on how you look at it. On the plus side, he hit right around .300 both seasons and also showed 15 home run power. He increased his stolen base total from 19 in 2007 to 33 last season. On the negative side, the 23-year-old prospect continues to be overly aggressive at the plate with walk rates in the past two seasons of 6.8 and 4.7 BB%. Defensively, he is an average outfielder at best, having been moved off second base, where he was below average.

Only 20, Dayan Viciedo will not step right in to the Major League roster like fellow Cuban Alexei Ramirez did last season. The third baseman will likely begin his career in High-A ball and could move up to Double-A around mid-season if the hype surrounding him is somewhat justified. He has plus-power potential, but there are concerns about his conditioning and drive.

The key to the Vazquez deal, Tyler Flowers could be a huge steal if he can remain behind the plate. I discussed the trade not long ago. Flowers should open 2009 in Double-A.

Jordan Danks, the brother of White Sox hurler John Danks, could have been a first-round draft pick out of high school, if he had not contacted teams and asked them not to draft him because he wanted to attend the University of Texas. Danks, though, never developed the power scouts had expected so he slid to the White Sox in the seventh round of the 2008 draft. He is a gifted defensive outfielder but it remains to be seen how well he will hit. Danks did manage to hit .325 in 10 A-ball games after signing.

SS/R Prospects:
The White Sox tend to favor a college approach to the draft so the prospects in the lower minors tend to be quite raw. Right-hander Dexter Carter is the best of the bunch, although he was a college draft pick pitching against much younger competition in rookie ball. He allowed just 44 hits in 68.2 innings and posted rates of 3.28 BB/9 and 11.67 K/9. He should begin 2009 in A-ball. Carter can touch 96-97 mph but his control is iffy and he could end up as a late-game reliever.

Up Next: The Milwaukee Brewers

These lists do not include all the talented prospects in each system – just a snap shot. Some players have been left out because I have covered them recently and not much has changed (You can link to the older posts from each player’s FanGraphs page) or I am planning a separate post on them in the very near future.

One of the things that I’ve been wanting to look into this off-season is the relationship between velocity and effectiveness. As we all know, major league pitchers are selected off of the strength of their fastball more than anything else. Body type, breaking balls, performance – all of those fail to receive the same level of confidence as fastball velocity. If a guy can throw in the upper 90s consistently, he’s going to get a chance to work out all his other issues. If a guy can’t break 80, he’s going to have to be phenomenal at everything else to even get a crack at a major league job.

However, we know that velocity isn’t everything. Command, movement, the ability to mix pitches – these all count, and in many cases, they count a lot. Jamie Moyer is the obvious example that everyone points to. It’s clear that velocity isn’t a prerequisite for major league success, but that doesn’t really give us an answer for how important it is.

To start looking at the issue, I’ve taken the 427 pitchers who accumulated at least 30 IP in the majors last year and plotted their velocity and K/9 rate on a graph. Rather than talk about it some more, I’ll just show you that graph.

You can click on the graph to see the full version, by the way.

First off, there’s an obvious relationship. The regression line through the middle trends up, which fits with common sense – guys who throw hard strike out more batters than guys who don’t. But perhaps the slope of the line isn’t quite what you might have expected? It’s lower than I thought it would be, honestly. While there are guys like Jonathan Broxton and Fernando Rodney who fit right into the high velocity/high strikeout rate category, there’s also Brandon League and Matt Lindstrom – the two hardest throwers in the sample, and they posted K/9 rates of 6.27 and 6.75 respectively.

If you look down in the right hand corner, you’ll notice the r squared, which is the coefficient of determination. This number, .2299, essentially means that if you had a pitcher’s single year velocity data, you’d know about 23% of what is necessary to know his strikeout rate for that year. The other 77% of strikeout rate is not explained by how hard he throws his fastball. Now, since these are just single year samples, a portion of that unexplained K/9 rate will be noise, so don’t take that to mean that 77% of strikeout rate is command, off-speed stuff, and other factors all under the pitcher’s control. There’s variables outside of what the pitcher can influence that are in play, too – the umpires, the opposing batters, etc…

Still, though, it’s important to know that if you’re trying to predict strikeout rate, velocity is about 1/4 of what you need to account for. That makes it likely to be the biggest factor, but it’s not so dominating as to exclude the other things besides throwing hard. A high velocity fastball is a good thing, but it is definitely not the only thing.

Blue Jays sign Kevin Millar (minor league deal)

Can you tell the Jays are budget strapped yet? Millar is coming off of an exceptionally poor season with the Orioles driven by a lackluster .249 batting average on balls in play. Millar has a decent enough shot of breaking camp with the Jays, given their lack of designated hitters and desire to push Lyle Overbay. Of course, Millar hardly fits the bill as a platoon player since he lacks a dominant split and he’s simply not good enough to be a regular. The best case involves Millar being worth a win to the major league team.

Rockies sign Franklin Nunez, Randy Flores, and Kurt Birkins (minor league deals)

The Nunez’ signing can be accredited to at least one dominating performance in the Dominican Winter League. Nunez has spent time in the Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay organizations amongst others and the last time we saw Nunez in the majors he threw absolute heat, registering at 96 miles per hour in 2005. Troubles with free passes usually capsize Nunez’ FIP, but he gets a fair amount of groundballs, which makes him a delightful no-risk signing for the Rockies.

Birkins also spent time with Tampa Bay and could work as a left-handed specialist, he’ll likely compete against Randy Flores.

Mariners claim Luis Pena off waivers

Jack Zduriencik takes another former Brewer. Pena was waived to make room for the addition addressed below and is another layer to the Mariners bullpen casserole. Pena’s strikeout rates are fair and his walk rates decent with the exception of 2006 and 2008. He might not be on the Mariners roster on opening day, but Pena’s a nice arm to have just an injury or implosion away, even if most of his innings come in garbage time. I wonder if the Mariners will claim Juan Salas who was recently designated for assignment?

Brewers claim Nick Green off waivers

No, not the scrappy utility player, instead the former Angels starting pitching prospect. Lately, green has had a mixed bag of results. In 2006 he struggled during an introductory period to Double-A competition, getting stomped to a 5.11 FIP. Upon repeating the course in 2007 Green saw his FIP drop to 3.90. Naturally, 2008 would have him post a 5.21 FIP in Triple-A, but the Brewers saw something they liked here. Perhaps a total disregard for the homerun numbers, given the ballpark.

Yankees sign Brett Tomko (minor league deal)

Sometimes teams make fascinating finds in the minor league free agent findings that cause them to bless MLB’s lack of re-entry waivers. This is not one of those findings, although to be fair he’s not as bad as you would think. Of course, Tomko has combined for just a little over 300 innings since 2006, but ratios are fine minus the homeruns. With Ian Kennedy and Phillip Hughes sitting around it’s hard to see Tomko making any starts, but I have sneaking suspicion he’ll make at least one appearance for the Yankees in 2009.

After a leak of the results of MLB’s 2003 anonymous survey testing for performance enhancing drugs, Alex Rodriguez admitted in an interview with ESPN’s Peter Gammons using them from 2001 to 2003, the three years he played for Texas.

“When I arrived in Texas in 2001, I felt an enormous amount of pressure, felt all the weight of the world on top of me to perform and perform at a high level every day.”…When asked if his usage took place from 2001-2003, Rodriguez said, “That’s pretty accurate.”
Rangers owner Tom Hicks, who took over the team in 1998, was shocked by Rodriguez’s admission.
“I certainly don’t believe that if he’s now admitting that he started using when he came to the Texas Rangers, why should I believe that it didn’t start before he came to the Texas Rangers

If ARod started using PEDs in 2001, then they had no effect, as his three years in Texas are statistically indistinguishable from his previous two years in Seattle. His jump in performance was between the 1998 and 1999 seasons.

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