I know Matthew wrote about this a few weeks ago, but hopefully, you’ll bare with me as we revisit the topic of Ichiro’s value. It has become prominent again in the local discussions of the Seattle Mariners, as J.J. Putz and Adrian Beltre have expressed frustration with his style of play.

In the last three years, here’s the Win Value leaderboard for major league outfielders.

1. Grady Sizemore, +20 wins
2. Carlos Beltran, +18.4 wins
3. Matt Holliday, +18.1 wins
4. Curtis Granderson, +14.7 wins
5. Ichiro Suzuki, +14.5 wins

Over the last three years, Ichiro has been a more valuable player than Manny Ramirez, Magglio Ordonez, Alfonso Soriano, or Vladimir Guerrero. Do you see their teammates complaining that they don’t play the game the right way (okay, Manny, but that’s a different kind of issue entirely)? Do you see them continually being derided for what they don’t do?

We’re in desperate need of a paradigm shift. For too long, baseball players have been put into boxes and defined based on how well they fit a preconceived notion of what is valuable. If you don’t do those certain things, then your value is diminished, regardless of how well you do everything else.

A player’s value is the sum of his total contributions on the field. And those contributions come in all shapes and sizes. You don’t have to hit home runs to be a star. You don’t have to play defense to be a star. You don’t have to be nice to the media to be a star. If you have a deficiency in one area, you can make up for it with superlative greatness in another.

Ichiro is a star. That he doesn’t produce like Guerrero or Ramirez doesn’t make him less valuable, just because he doesn’t look like a right fielder.

Let’s just toss our preconceived notions of what a player should do overboard and evaluate them on what they actually do. We care about their tangible value, not our interpretation of whether their value fits the mold.

It’s amazing, really, how quickly this system has turned around from being one of the worst in baseball to having some very intriguing talent in the upper levels of the minors. As recently as 2005, the club had arguably the worst system in the game. Now, it’s easily in the upper half of the talent pool – when compared to the other organizations’ talent – and tops in the NL Central.

AAA/AA Prospects:
I’ve written about Colby Rasmus a few times in the past couple of months (Including this 2008 minor league wrap), so I will be brief. He is the top prospect in the system and is close to being MLB-ready. However, the club has a number of talented outfielders standing in his way right now although he could easily push them aside with an outstanding spring training.

I also wrote a recent article discussing the third-base situation in St. Louis, with incumbent Troy Glaus’ injury creating an opening for the first few months of the season. David Freese likely has the inside track on the job. Brian Barden is another option, although he could get a look at second base now that Adam Kennedy has been released. Talent-wise, 2008 No. 1 draft pick Brett Wallace is the best third-base option, and his bat is almost MLB-ready. However, his defensive abilities are shrouded in question marks and I just don’t think he’s ready to play third at the Major League level – yet. Long-term, he is a first baseman.

Prospects Chris Perez and Jason Motte both have a shot at opening the 2009 season as the club’s closer – although Ryan Franklin may have the inside track after he saved 17 games in 2008. Perez has been groomed as a potential closer since he signed out of the University of Miami in 2006. He saved seven in 41 games for the Cardinals last season. Motte is a converted catcher who can throw heat with the best of ’em. Despite his inexperience, he held his own during his MLB debut last season by allowing five hits, three walks and striking out 16 in 11 innings.

Jess Todd was a reliever in college but the organization stretched him out and he took to starting like he had been doing it his entire life. The former second-round pick pitched at three levels last season and finished the year at Triple-A. At that level, Todd allowed 19 hits in 22.2 innings with 11 walks and 20 strikeouts. He may need a little more seasoning after seeing his 2008 FIPs increase with each promotion, from 1.52 to 4.22 to 5.32.

There are a couple of other starting pitchers in the upper levels of the system who have the potential to help out in 2009. Clayton Mortensen gets overlooked at times, but the right-hander was selected 36th overall in the 2007 amateur draft and has put up solid minor league numbers (although he’s been a little too hittable). He split 2008 between Double-A and Triple-A. He struggled a bit at the senior level, after seeing his K/BB rate drop from 2.18 to 1.36. Adam Ottavino had a forgettable year after posting a 5.23 ERA (4.95 FIP) at Double-A. He also allowed 133 hits in 115.1 innings with a walk rate of 4.06 BB/9. Left-hander Jamie Garcia made his MLB debut in 2008, only to suffer an elbow injury and he’ll be lost for all of 2009.

With Yadier Molina behind the dish in St. Louis, the club doesn’t really need another catcher, but Bryan Anderson is on the cusp of making his MLB debut. The 22-year-old prospect has been a hit-machine in the minors, with a career average of .306 in four seasons and more than 1,200 at-bats. He hit .281/.367/.379 in 235 Triple-A at-bats after beginning the 2008 season in Double-A and hitting .388. Anderson, though, is not a great defensive catcher so being a back-up would not suit him, as it would allow his defense to get even rustier. He could get a look at second base (he’s fairly athletic for a catcher).

Daryl Jones’ baseball skills are finally catching up to his raw athleticism. The outfielder reached Double-A last season and hit .290/.409/.500 in 124 at-bats. Overall, he stole 24 bases and showed the potential to hit 20 home runs. He showed improved patience at the plate in 2008, which bodes well for his future since his speed will be his best attribute until he grows into his power. He could be ready for the Majors by late 2009 or mid-2010.

A+/A Prospects:
Peter Kozma was considered an advanced prep player when he was selected in the first round of the 2007 draft. His pro career has been solid but unspectacular and he currently looks like a future utility player. Kozma hit .284/.363/.398 in A-ball in 2008. He received a brief promotion to High-A and hit just .130 in 24 games.

Lance Lynn was a supplemental first round pick in 2008 and had a solid debut in short-season ball (1.65 FIP in six games) before finishing the season with two starts in A-ball. Lynn showed solid control at both stops and could move quickly in 2009; he may even start the year in High-A ball. He doesn’t blow the ball past hitters, so Lynn will need to rely on mixing his four pitches: a low 90s fastball, slider, curveball and change-up.

SS/R Prospects:
An 11th round selection from the 2007 draft, you can add Adam Reifer’s name to the list of potential closers – although he’s further away than Perez or Motte. Reifer has battled injury problems but showed high-90s velocity in 2008. In short-season ball, Reifer smoked the younger opposition and allowed just 18 hits in 30.1 innings. He also posted a strikeout rate of 12.16 K/9, but struggled with his command: 4.45 BB/9.

Up Next: The Chicago White Sox

These lists do not include all the talented prospects in each system – just a snap shot. Some players have been left out because I have covered them recently and not much has changed (You can link to the older posts from each player’s FanGraphs page) or I am planning a separate post on them in the very near future.

Sometimes managers just don’t make sense. Meet Jerry Manuel and read his latest quotes to SI.com.

“This is not about statistical success. This is about winning as a team, and you have to put people in positions that you feel is best to win as a team,” Manuel said during a 40-minute news conference, one day before New York’s first official workout for pitchers and catchers.

I would argue that winning is a statistical success, whether it be as a team or individual. There’s no arguing against Manuel’s point on the manager putting players in positions they have the best chance to succeed, and therefore giving the team the best chance to win. That’s just common sense.

“Whether that means [Jose Reyes] batting second, third, whatever — first or leading off — you have to accomplish that. And that’s a big part of the message throughout spring training: The game takes precedent over individual stats.”

Oh that trickster Jose Reyes. He only wants to lead off to boost his individual stats, like plate appearances.

“If we could lead [Luis Castillo] off, which is probably best for him, it might be something that we’ll have to do because it’s for him,” Manuel said. “We have to give him the best possible chances for success in order to get his year behind him.

Wait, what? Didn’t Manuel just say that “[The] game takes precedent over individual stats,” and now he’s saying “[Which] is probably best for him, it might be something that we’ll have to do because it’s for him.”

Uh…

“We have to give him the best possible chances for success in order to get his year behind him.”

Um.

So the game’s not about individual stats, statistical success, or anything like that, and yet Manuel and the Mets really need Luis Castillo to hit leadoff because it’s good for him and so he can put his last season – an unsuccessful statistical season – behind him. That doesn’t make a lick of sense, and it’s undermining Manuel’s point about winning.

There is not a person alive who thinks Castillo is a better hitter than Reyes. Over the last three years, Castillo has gotten on base at a .358 clip, that’s slightly better than Reyes 0.355. Compare their slugging percentages, where Reyes’ lowest is .421 and Castillo’s highest is .362, and there’s just no contest on who should be getting more plate appearances.

If the Mets want to go to a more OBP conscious leadoff hitter, that’s fine. Hitting Reyes second or third in favor of Carlos Beltran makes sense. Throw David Wright behind those two and you have quite the top of the lineup. Batting Luis Castillo first is taking away plate appearances from your best hitters. Not enough to make a difference, but if Manuel is serious about winning, shouldn’t he be utilizing every asset of the game to its max in order to help his cause?

The New York Mets made early splashes this offseason by acquiring Francisco Rodriguez and JJ Putz to strengthen their bullpen. Omar Minaya then nabbed Tim Redding and Freddy Garcia to potentially fill the back of the rotation, and signed Oliver Perez to man the fourth spot. Which makes it particularly odd that they signed Livan Hernandez over the weekend to a minor league deal. The deal is worth $1 mil and another $1 mil in performance bonuses that obviously could not be earned if he fails to make the major league team.

Livan has the reputation as an innings-eater, which is what the media calls pitchers who log a good amount innings with no other real skills. For instance, Roy Halladay and Johan Santana are also innings-eaters but are never referred to as such because they are actually fantastic pitchers. Livan was never a fantastic pitcher, but, from 1997-2004, he had plenty of value. If his rookie season in 1997 is discounted due to a lack of playing time, and we instead look at 1998-2004, Livan’s 1605 innings pitched ranks second to just Randy Johnson. Despite all of the innings, he provided league average production with a 101 ERA+.

After the 2004 season, his modest strikeout and walk rates began to trend in opposite directions. In 2007 his rates had plummeted to an awful 3.96 in the K/9 department and a 3.48 BB/9. Due to the large amounts of innings logged his raw walk numbers always looked worse than his rates, but he failed to miss bats and became way too susceptible to hits allowed.

He signed with the Twins last season but was released after 23 games. At that juncture he had a 4.68 FIP and a 5.48 ERA. His BB/9 had dropped nicely to the tune of 1.87, but unfortunately his strikeout rate followed suit, falling to an abysmal 3.48 per nine innings. The Rockies, for whatever reason, thought he was a tremendous upgrade over Kip Wells and brought him aboard. In the eight starts he made for the Rockies, Livan posted a 2.90 K/9 and 3.12 BB/9, a 5.86 FIP, and an 8.03 ERA.

The only thing that has saved Hernandez over the last three years in the win value department is his durability. Without the innings, he has the peripherals of a replacement or below-replacement pitcher. All told, over the last three seasons he has posted win values of +1.7, +0.3, and +1.4. CHONE projects Hernandez to log 171 innings with a 5.21 FIP, which means a slightly higher FIP in a slightly lesser amount of innings. Should these marks come to fruition, Hernandez would likely produce exactly +1 win.

Relative to fair market value, the deal favors the Mets, because Hernandez can be cut if he stinks like he did with the Rockies. There is nothing wrong with giving a few pitchers shots at making the big league team on non-guaranteed contracts with invitations to Spring Training, but Livan looks way past finished. How he was able to pitch in so many innings with poor production is beyond me, but he will need to start missing bats to be anywhere near effective.

Color this analyst skeptical that this 35-yr old is suddenly going to revert to the 1997-1999 version of himself and make the all-star team. The Mets already have Tim Redding as the de facto fifth starter and Freddy Garcia signed a hefty incentive-laden deal to potentially compete with Redding. Do they really need a third horse in this race? Again, there is nothing wrong with this contract from a terms standpoint, but it definitely catalyzes some head scratches.

Reports are leaking out that Ervin Santana, heading into his first arbitration hearing, and the Angels have agreed to a four-year contract with a team option on a fifth year. If the length is right, that buys out Santana’s three arbitration years plus his first free agent year with the option covering a second. Santana recently turned 26 so that contract would cover his 26-29 seasons with the option year being his 30th. That’s a nice age to lock up a pitcher.

Moving to the dollar figures, the numbers being reported is a guaranteed $30 million with the option being for another $12 million or so. Given the 40/60/80% breakdown on arbitration rewards, this comes out to 2.8 market years or 3.8 with the option. Either way, it breaks down to the Angels paying Santana at the 2.5-win level, give or take a little.

Santana certainly had a wide volatility in his performance in the past two seasons, moving from a low 4 FIP previously to one well over 5 in 2007 and then down in the low 3s this past year. From 2005 through 2007, Santana was throwing fewer strikes and missing fewer bats each subsequent year until his complete transformation in 2008 which also saw him post a career high groundball rate.

The question is going to be if that’s sustainable. If so, then Santana is legitimately one of the best pitchers in the American League and worth around five wins a year, giving the Angels a tremendous value. If he regresses all the way back to 2007, he’s only worth about one win. CHONE and Marcel have remarkably similar projections, both suggesting that he’s going to return to his 2006 performance level; a level worth about 3.5 wins.

It looks like in all but the worst case scenario, the Angels make out well here with an upside of this becoming one of the most team-friendly contracts on the books. No doubt, fantastic move for Anaheim.

One graph is not enough for today, so, here’s another. This one is 2008 major league outfielders with defense on the horizontal axis and offense on the vertical axis. I adjusted the UZR for all the centerfielders up 10 runs (except Ichiro and Ellsbury, who got lesser adjustments for less than full seasons as a CF), since the average CF is about 10 runs better defensively than the average corner OF. I also adjusted all the wRAA numbers down by 8.5 runs to account for the fact that outfielders are better than average hitters. This puts all the outfielders on the same scale, where we’re comparing them all evenly to each other.

The upper left quadrant would be the the good bat/bad glove, group, consisting of guys like Brad Hawpe, Adam Dunn, and Bobby Abreu. This could also be referred to as the reality check group, as they just had their contract demands violently re-adjusted. These guys have been, for the most part, viewed as star level players, but are generally less valuable than perceived due to their lack of defensive ability.

The lowet left quadrant would be, essentially, replacement level players. A below average bat and a below average glove is not a good combination. Here you see guys like Jeff Francoeur, Delmon Young, and Jose Guillen. They didn’t help their teams last year.

The lower right quadrant are the bad bat/good glove guys – the ones who don’t hit all that well but offer their value in the field. These players are the antithesis of the sluggers, and in general, have been undervalued for the last few years. Carlos Gomez is a great example, as his bat was bad but his glove more than made up for it, making him a positive contributor to the Twins.

But then there’s the upper right quadrant. These guys are the ones that everyone likes. They hit, they run, they throw – they are five tool superstars and among the best players in the game. You’ll find guys like Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, and Nick Markakis hanging out over here.

You may have noticed that the look of FanGraphs has changed slightly. It is now 200 pixels wider, in some places. The homepage for instance takes advantage of this space, while most pages don’t quite take advantage of the space yet.

I’ll be working hard to fill in this space with hopefully useful sidebar boxes that give extra information about the player. In some spots, the data tables with be widened instead to allow for more stats and easier viewing. If you have any ideas for what you’d like to see in that space, now is the time to speak up.

However, it’d be disingenuous of me to say that the only reason I’ve widened the page is to just add more content. I’ve been reluctant to put real ads up on the site for some time, but unfortunately there will have to be some advertisements to help pay for the site’s expenses.

With that said, I’m not going to clutter up the entire page with ads or anything and will attempt to keep them to a minimum with tasteful placement that doesn’t disrupt any of the site’s content.

The Twins organization is loaded with intriguing talent. Unfortunately, the club’s top prospects are mainly in the lower half of the system – which is made less disappointing by the fact that the big club already has a lot of young talent filtered throughout the roster. It’s definitely going to be a fun organization to watch in 2009.

AAA/AA Prospects:
Right-hander Anthony Swarzak, 23, struggled when he was asked to repeat Double-A and right-handed batters hit .311 against him. He improved significantly when he was promoted to Triple-A, although it was a smaller sample size (seven games compared to 20). Swarzak’s stuff is solid with a low 90s fastball and excellent curveball. The change-up remains a work-in-progress.

Brian Duensing’s ceiling is lower than Swarzak’s, but the left-hander is a little more consistent at this point. His strikeout rate is troubling at 5.00 K/9, and he’s never dominated lefties so a LOOGY role is unlikely. He’s spent most of the last two seasons in Triple-A, and should help out as a middle reliever before long.

Jose Mijares is one frustrating player. The left-handed reliever has all the talent in the world (touches the high 90s at times, has two good breaking balls) but his attitude needs work. In his MLB debut in 2008, Mijares allowed just three hits and no walks in 10.1 innings. He has the potential to be the go-to guy in the pen.

A+/A Prospects:
Ben Revere caught a lot of people by surprise in 2008 by hitting .379 in A-ball. The former No. 1 draft pick has more power potential than you would expect from a 5’9” player. With 44 stolen bases and 10 triples in 2008, speed is his biggest asset right now and he needs to be more patient at the plate to increase his opportunities (7.4 BB%) on the base paths.

Wilson Ramos is one of the top young catchers in baseball – but he’s in the wrong organization… unless his presence finally convinces the Twins to move Joe Mauer out from behind the dish. Ramos, 21, is ticketed for Double-A in 2009. He has always hit for a good average and he also has power potential. Like many Twins prospects, he could stand to be more patient. Ramos is an average defender, with an above-average arm who led the league in throwing out base runners (43%).

Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt were both added in the 2008 draft out of college and should move quickly though the system. Like Revere in 2007, the Twins organization surprised a lot of people by taking Gutierrez as early as it did. He’ll move through the minors as a starter but many scouts project him as a reliever because he is basically a one-pitch pitcher with a killer sinker. Gutierrez also has an inconsistent slider and a developing change-up. Hunt was grabbed in the supplemental first round although he had more hype than Gutierrez. Hunt’s status was damaged by injuries in college. He struck out a lot of batters in his debut but really struggled with his command, posting a rate of 7.76 BB/9 in A-ball.

SS/R Prospects:
Aaron Hicks, 19, was the Twins’ first round pick in 2008 out of high school and was considered quite raw, although he’s loaded with athleticism. Hicks hit much better than expected in his debut (.318) and should open 2009 in A-ball. His 13.9 BB% was encouraging, especially for a Twins prospect.

Angel Morales, 19, is another player who is loaded with athletic potential. He was drafted out of Puerto Rico and showed more power than was expected, with 15 homers in 183 at-bats (.322 ISO). Morales, though, was repeating rookie ball and had a terrible strikeout rate at 39.3 K%. He definitely won’t hit .300 with that approach at higher levels, like he did in 2008.

Tyler Ladendorf, 20, did not have an impressive debut, but he should be considered a sleeper for 2009 after being a hit machine during his junior college career. He managed a line of just .204/.308/.293 but his walk and strikeout rates were encouraging.

Up Next: The St. Louis Cardinals

We’ve introduced a lot of cool new metrics here on the site in the last year, and we’ve also written a lot of stuff about those metrics and various goings on in baseball. However, you’ll note that the main part of the site’s name is still graphs, so I figured it was about time we got back to our roots. So, for this post, I’m doing less writing and more graphing.

This graph represents the spread in talent among major league outfielders for 2008 for three different metrics – wRAA, Range Runs, and ARM. Basically, what we’ve got here is the distribution of offensive ability, fielding ability by running, and fielding ability by throwing. These metrics essentially encapsulate the value of the traditional five tools – hitting for average, hitting for power, running, fielding, and throwing as they relate to outfielders.

As you’d expect, the biggest gap is in offensive ability. There are a few outfielders who can really hit and some who are pretty lousy with the bat, making the spread from best to worst nearly 80 runs. Likewise, there’s a pretty decent spread in terms of range, with the best outfielders being about 50 runs better than the worst outfielders. But the spread in arm ratings is much, much smaller – not quite 20 runs. Throwing is nice, but it’s not running, and it’s certainly not hitting. This is why MLB players are selected based on their bats and their legs, not their arms.

My favorite thing to draw from this graph, though, is the value of elite defenders with average bats. If you had a guy with 0 wRAA, meaning he was the epitome of a league average hitter, but he was best in the league at both fielding and throwing, he’d be at the +30 point on the graph. Look at where +30 is in wrAA compared to the spread of talent. There are not very many +30 wRAA outfielders.

A league average bat who is an elite runner and thrower is about equal in value to a Ryan Braun type of hitter. You can make up for a lot of offensive lack with defensive greatness in the outfield.

It appears to only be a matter of time now before Ken Griffey Jr. is brought back to Seattle, where he grew up as a player and where he sparked the imaginations of many both in and outside of Seattle with where his career might one day end up. Needless to say that his career has not followed a path many expected and we arrive now, in 2009, with Griffey reduced to what should be a positional role.

Forecasting for Griffey comes with a bit of an asterisk since he apparently played with a knee injury throughout 2008 that hampered his power and range and which he is now recovered from. CHONE and Marcel are going to be ignorant of that information (probably for the best) and they both present similar forecasts for Griffey, a slightly below average .330-2 wOBA over 452-79 at bats. As a DH, we would knock another five runs off that hitting projection, subtract another 17.5 runs for the lack of position and we end up with a player right at replacement level. His OF defense is such that him playing the field probably comes out to the same level despite the 15-run boost in adjustments.

A smart team however is not going to employ Griffey in a full time role. Notably, an effort to platoon him away from facing left-handed pitchers would help to improve his overall line as he’s posted a near-200 OPS point split over the last three seasons. In the best case scenario, the Mariners could hope for a return to his 2007-level of offense, while primarily manning DH with only occasional forays out into the field. That level would make Griffey worth around 1 to 1.5 wins.

That tells us that this is going to be a pretty inconsequential move, value-wise, for the Mariners in 2009. Certainly, sentimentally-wise, this is a slam dunk for them and assuming Griffey doesn’t command much money (an appropriate amount would be around $2-3 million), the main concern going forward will be making sure that Griffey doesn’t take too many at bats away from younger developing players.