There are a couple of interesting names in the upper levels of the Seattle minor league system, but the highest-ceiling players remain in A-ball or lower. The system also appears to have more depth on the hitting side than the pitching side.

AAA/AA
Canadian Michael Saunders has developed quicker than many thought he would. The 22-year-old outfielder was raw as a 2004 11th-round draft pick, but he adapted well to pro ball and spent 2008 split between Double-A and Triple-A. With a crowded outfield at the MLB level, Saunders will have plenty of time to smooth out the rough edges on his game, which includes the tendency to chase (and miss) breaking balls. Regardless, he has the potential to be a 20-20 player at the Major League level, although he steals bases more on smart base running, than pure speed. Defensively, he is OK in center field but possesses enough arm strength for right, as long as off-season labrum surgery does not have long-term effects.

Greg Halman is another athletic outfielder who is not that far off from knocking on the Major League door in Seattle. He split 2008 between High-A and Double-A and slugged 29 homers with 31 steals, which suggests he could eventually be a 30-30 threat in the Majors. Halman has a lot of work to do when it comes to hitting for average, though. He hit .277 in 235 Double-A at-bats, but has a .262 career average. His approach at the plate obviously needs work after posting a walk rate of 6.4 BB% and a strikeout rate of 28.2 K% at Double-A. On the plus side, both rates were improvements over 2007. His defensive skills should definitely force Saunders to right field.

Adam Moore, 24, is not as well known as Jeff Clement but he offers another strong bat behind the dish, like the former top draft pick. Moore, who was selected in the sixth round during the 2006 draft, has hit more than .300 in each of the past two seasons in High-A and Double-A, while slugging a combined 36 home runs. Overall in 2008, Moore hit .319/.396/.506 with a .186 ISO in 429 at-bats. Defensively, he’s allowed 44 passed balls in the past two seasons due to limited mobility, but he calls a good game and threw out 35% of base stealers in 2008.

A+/A
If he can stay healthy, which has been a challenge so far (and a trend that seems to hamper Canadian pitchers), Phillippe Aumont should be an absolutely monster on the mound. The former first-round draft pick (2007) out of high school has a fastball that can touch the upper 90s with wicked movement. Aumont has also worked hard to improve his secondary pitches, which include a breaking ball and change-up. He’ll receive a huge challenge in 2009 by pitching in a very good hitter’s league in High-A ball.

Only 20, Juan Ramirez should also open the 2009 season in High-A ball. The right-hander showed improved control in 2008 (5.14 BB/9 in 07 to 2.76 BB/9 in 08) and allowed just 112 hits in 124 A-ball innings. Like Aumont, Ramirez has excellent movement and sink on his fastball, which can touch the mid-to-high 90s at times. He has a solid slider and a change-up that needs significant work.

Michael Pineda, who just turned 20, had a dominating North American debut in 2008 in A-ball. He posted a 1.95 ERA (2.87 FIP) with 109 hits allowed in 138.1 innings of work. He posted rates of 2.29 BB/9 and 8.33 K/9. The right-hander has a solid fastball with excellent movement that sits in the 89-92 mph range. His second-best pitch is a change-up and Pineda is still working to develop a reliable breaking ball.

Carlos Triunfel, 19, should open the year in Double-A – which is impressive given his age. He spent 2008 in High-A ball and hit .287/.336/.406 with an ISO of just .116. Although he should hit for a high average and stole 30 bases last season, his offense could become an issue down the line as he is expected to settle in as a third baseman, where his power will be below average. He has also spent time at second base and shortstop, his natural position.

SS/R
The club’s 2008 first-round draft pick, Joshua Fields, just recently came to terms on a contract, which has obviously stunted his development to this point. The hard-throwing reliever was expected to compete for a MLB job by late 2009, but that time frame could be pushed back depending on how much rust he shows in camp. Fields has a fastball that can touch the upper 90s and a curveball that acts as a solid out-pitch. His command/control was inconsistent in college.

Outfielder Dennis Raben was selected in the second round of last year’s draft. He had a solid debut and showed an advanced approach while hitting .275/.411/.560 with five homers in 91 at-bats. Raben should ultimately settle in at the left field position and he is an average fielder. The 21-year-old left-handed batter will likely open 2009 in High-A ball.

Third base prospects Jharmidy DeJesus and Mario Martinez, both 19, spent their 2008 seasons in short-season ball. DeJesus hit .339/.417/.591 in 127 rookie league at-bats before receiving a late-season promotion to short-season ball. He was moved from shortstop to third base and he should have the power needed to be an impact player at the position. Martinez hit .319/.344/.462 in his second year in rookie ball. He’s less patient than DeJesus, but currently makes a little more consistent contact. Martinez has less power than his fellow prospect, but he is a better fielder.

Up Next: The Colorado Rockies

Today, I’m kicking off a new series – over the next three weeks, we’ll rank all thirty MLB organizations, but rather than doing it just by some portion of their franchise (whether major league talent, minor league talent, front office talent, etc…), we’ll do an all encompassing overview of where each major league club stands. The following list should be viewed as something like organizational health, top to bottom.

Today, we kick off the list with the franchise that has more work to do to get back on track than any other in baseball.

#30: Washington Nationals

Front Office: D-

This was an F before Jim Bowden left. With him out of the picture, there’s a door open for the franchise to start making moves to send the team in the right direction. Unfortunately, Stan Kasten doesn’t seem to be walking through the door. A new general manager could overhaul the organization and establish a new path, but right now, the leadership is in limbo and no one really knows where they’re going to head.

Major League Talent: C-

There’s some good young players in the fold – Ryan Zimmerman, Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, John Lannan, and Joel Hanrahan all showed that they have some major league abilities last year. Adam Dunn and Cristian Guzman are solid veteran role players. But the guys who have star power come with significant risks, and the guys the team can count on have limited upsides. It’s just not a roster that fits well together, either. In a best case scenario, the Nationals could finish .500 this year, and even that’s a longshot.

Minor League Talent: C

There’s some good young arms in Jordan Zimmerman, Collin Balester, and Ross Detwiler on the farm. And, if you give them credit for potentially drafting Stephen Strasburg with the #1 pick this summer, then there’s quite a bit of hope for their future rotation. But the depth of position player prospects is remarkably thin, and the Esmailyn Gonzalez revelation didn’t help at all. For a team that’s been pretty bad for a while, you’d expect a better farm system. This one’s not very good.

Overall: F

Yes, this is kind of kicking a group of men when he’s down, but it’s impossible to find an organization in worse shape than the Nats. They’re coming off a major league worst 102 loss season and their GM just resigned amidst a scandal over significant issues with their Dominican scouting operations. Rather than hiring a new general manager, the team president is just handling business himself while giving Asst. GM Mike Rizzo some increased authority without a promotion.

There are things Nationals fans can cling to in hoping for the future, but 2009 isn’t going to be much fun, and 2010 probably won’t be either.

One of the talking points during World Baseball Classic action has been Moises Alou and his winding career. Alou will reportedly retire after the tournament, but for now is the captain of the Dominican Republic team that his father, Felipe, manages. With over 7,900 career plate appearances coming with the Pirates, Expos, Marlins, Astros, Cubs, Giants, and Mets, Alou has quite the storied career. Let’s focus on his top five games (as ranked by WPA) since 2002.

1. 9/20/05 Giants @ Nationals .819 WPA

Not often can a pitcher work nine innings while allowing only four hits and end up with a loss and negative win probability added, but that’s just what Livan Hernandez did on this September night and all thanks to Alou. Batting fifth behind Barry Bonds, Alou struck out swinging and grounded out in his first two at-bats. In the seventh inning with the Giants trailing 2-1, Alou would single to center, but then tagged out at second following a Ray Durham line out. Alou would get one more at-bat, this coming in the ninth inning. Omar Vizquel and Barry Bonds would both walk, bringing Alou up with the tying run on second and two men out. On Livan Hernandez’ 123rd pitch of the night, Moises would homer to left, giving the Giants the lead and after a shaky ninth from Armando Benitez, the win. The Giants lineup combined for .385 WPA that night, Alou had .819 himself, Bonds was second with .139, and then only Vizquel finished in the positive with .013.

2. 4/16/04 Cubs v. Reds .558 WPA

The final score says it all about this game; 11-10. Alou would finish with five at-bats, four hits, two homeruns, and a .558 WPA. In what amounted to a shootout, the Cubs would trail the Reds entering the top of the 9th with closer Joe Borowski on the mound. Borowski would walk the leadoff hitter and record two consecutive outs before loading the bases with Ryan Freel up. A flyout to right later, the Cubs would have a chance to tie it with sluggers Sammy Sosa and Alou due up. Danny Graves would enter and get ahead of Sosa 1-2 before seeing three of the next four pitches hit foul. Another ball set the count full, and on the ninth pitch of the at-bat Sosa deposited a ball into the right field bleachers, tying the game. Alou would take a ball and then promptly hammer a pitch to left field, giving the Cubs the win in one of the more offensive games in recent memory.

3. 5/19/04 Cubs v. Giants .437 WPA

Alou’s day started out ho hum. A first inning flyball to deep center, fourth inning groundout, and sixth inning flyball set the stage for Alou’s fourth plate appearance of the day, in which he walked on six pitches. Alou would get one more chance in the bottom of the 10th and would make the most of it. Jim Brower would enter with the intent of getting Alou out. Brower succeeded in having Alou go out, but unfortunately for the Giants Alou’s act involved the ball also landing in the seats, giving the Cubs yet another win in walk off fashion.

4. 9/26/06 Giants v. Diamondbacks .374 WPA

Randy Choate would replace Brandon Webb in the bottom of the 9th in a tied game and sit Omar Vizquel down and hit Todd Linden on six pitches. It would only take Brandon Lyon a third of that to end the game, as Moises Alou hit a homer to left field on Lyon’s second pitch of the game.

5. 6/29/02 Cubs @ White Sox .372 WPA

This is one of the rare games on this list where Alou’s team failed to win. Naturally, it wasn’t because of Alou. A 4-4 day with two homeruns resulted in only two runs as Fred McGriff and Sammy Sosa combined to reach base in only two of their nine plate appearances.

As I wrote back in October, it can be difficult for a player to shake a reputation. Fortunately, for the Red Sox, Jon Lester accomplished this very feat by showing everyone that he was a legitimate ace pitcher and not merely a cancer survivor with raw tools and potential. The 25-yr old lefty, who tossed a no-hitter in the 2008 season, put together a tremendous statline in 33 starts en route to +5.1 wins. Production like that translated to $23 mil at fair market value. Still well under club control, Lester of course earned nowhere near that salary.

His production did not go unrewarded for long, however, as he has just signed a 5-yr extension worth $30 mil, with a 6th year option valued at $13 mil. The extension buys out all of his arbitration-eligible seasons as well as his first two free agent years, and has the potential to keep the southpaw in Red Sox attire until he turns 31 years old.

Lester is tough to project thanks to just 144.1 innings logged in 2006-07 and the fact that the systems do not tend to recognize or reward breakout performances. The projection systems housed here suggest that Lester will take a decently sized step backwards, regressing to somewhere in the +3.5 to +4.1 win range. I’m a tad more optimistic and see him potentially as a +4.5 win pitcher if he can match the innings pitched total from last season.

Normally, with extensions, we break out the 40/60/80 calculator and determine the worth, but what intrigues me about this particular extension is that it has become hard to determine the true “winner” of deals this offseason. With the market as depressed as it has become, a deal that seemingly possesses a slam dunk pedigree such as this might be a bit more fair than meets the eye. Either way, the Red Sox have done a solid job of locking up two of their best players in Lester and Pedroia, players who will no-doubtedly outearn their salaries.

With the inconsistencies of Daisuke Matsuzaka, the potential that we have seen the best days of Josh Beckett, the question marks surrounding John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz, and Brad Penny, and increasing odds that Tim Wakefield will retire one of these years, the Red Sox have just locked up their best pitcher, ensuring themselves of an ace for the next several years. And if the aforementioned inconsistencies, question marks, and odds prove to be irrelevent with 2009 performance and beyond, Lester has the chance to headline one of the top rotations in the game for years to come.

The ZiPS projections, courtesy of Dan Szymborski and Baseball Think Factory are now available in the player pages, the sortable projections area, and the customizable my projections area!

You can download a spreadsheet of the projections here: ZiPS 2009: Build 2

This completes the five different projection systems we’ll carry for this season, assuming there’s no major updates.

First, Alex Rodriguez was having surgery to repair a cyst in his hip and would be out about 10 weeks. Then it turned out he had a labral tear as well, surgery for which would normally cost him 4-6 months. Then the Yankees and Alex decided to try draining the cyst and playing through the season with the injury, waiting until after for surgery. Now, we find out that Rodriguez is in fact going under the knife, having arthroscopic surgery to try and repair the labral tear.

However, the current estimate/best hope is that Rodriguez will only miss 6-9 weeks. How is that possible? Well, for one, the surgery is set just to repair the tear itself. The 4-6 month rehab from a typical version of this injury comes from issues with the hip and femur bones that result from the tear. For now, Alex Rodriguez will wait on that part of the surgery, if needed, until the off season.

However, it’s still not all candy hearts. According to Stephania Bell the normal rehab for just a labral repair is 10-16 weeks. Granted that A-Rod is a motivated professional athlete and thus, we would expect a shorter time frame, it is not unrealistic to expect that nine weeks may be optimistic, much less six. Another good point that Bell brings up is that A-Rod has already and will miss the rest of Spring Training with the surgery and rehab. How fast will he be able to jump right back into baseball?

All told, I think 10 weeks, about mid-May is the best reasonable case for the A-Rod we expect to come back. That’s about 25% of the season gone. If he does manage six weeks, he might only miss 15-20 games, but if there’s any delays in the rehab, or he takes more than a week to get back to full speed after recovering, we could be looking more at a June return. And if there are any major set backs, still possible, it could end up being a lost season entirely.

10 weeks was/is going to be a big blow to the Yankees. If it turns out to be longer than that, well, I don’t know in what looks to be a super tight AL East race.

No matter if you’re Tommy Lasorda or not a fan of the World Baseball Classic, you have to admit it’s nice having competitive baseball around. I was lucky enough to catch the United States of America team play against Team Canada earlier Saturday and much to my pleasure, 20-year-old Phillippe Aumont got involved in the action.

Aumont is a former first round pick by the Seattle Mariners who saw his first exposure to pro ball in 2008. In 55.2 innings for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, Aumont posted a 3.58 FIP while striking out more than eight per nine and walking around three per nine. As far as first impressions go, Aumont pretty much nailed it.

He only threw 21 pitches (13 fastballs, 8 slurves) but his average fastball sat near 96 miles per hour with solid movement. I could sit here and write out how impressive Aumont’s stuff looked or how consistent he mixed speeds, but how about I just show you using Pitchfx data?

The strike zone and velocity graphs are pretty self explanatory, so I’ll focus on the movement. You should notice the two clusters of pitches, one in the upper left quadrant and the other in the bottom right quadrant. It’s pretty clear which set of pitches are Aumont’s fastballs and which are his slurves. An exercise I would encourage is looking at the velocity chart and imagining how the USA batters like Kevin Youkilis felt seeing:

First pitch: 95 miles per hour fastball that breaks in.
Second pitch: Power slurve breaking away.
Third pitch: Another slurve.

I’m not a prospects expert, but Aumont looked pretty damn impressive today.

For years now an automatic rubric of sorts has been in place to determine the Hall of Fame eligibility for hitters: launch 500+ home runs or amass 3,000+ hits. If either of these milestones are reached, the player has been more than likely to eventually find himself enshrined in Cooperstown. With the recent influx of power, however, several players with questionable credentials have either surpassed the 500 HR benchmark or have at least put themselves in solid position to do so in the next year or two. Players like Gary Sheffield and Carlos Delgado will finish their careers with more than 500 longballs and Jim Thome may very well reach 600, yet none of these three are considered Hall of Fame locks. And if Sheffield finishes at 518 HR, is he that much more worthy than Fred McGriff and his 493 gopherballs?

The 3,000 hit plateau has not been put under as much scrutiny because producing such a total is not necessarily considered as tainted. In a few years, however, a 20% chance exists that this milestone may no longer signal an automatic berth into baseball’s hallowed hall. Why 20%? Well, because Garret Anderson, he of the 2,368 hits, has a 20% chance of reaching 3000. Using Bill James’ Favorite Toy, Anderson is expected to play for another three seasons at an average of 148 hits/season, thus ending his career at 2,812. The 20% shot at 3,000 in no way locks him in but does acknowledge the definite possibility of such an event occurring.

If he reaches 3,000 hits, which I hope happens, the benchmark will lose its credibility because Garret Anderson is not a Hall of Fame player. Granted, my view of the HOF as an historical document of sorts designed to showcase the can’t-miss players of a certain era may differ from that of others, but regardless of our views I am extremely confident that everyone would agree Anderson is not of the HOF-ilk. Why do I hope he gets to the aforementioned milestone? Because if the credibility of the milestone is weakened with regards to the Hall of Fame, perhaps situations wherein aging players hurt their team’s production in order to reach the milestone will be lessened, if not eradicated.

Did Craig Biggio really need 3,000 hits to earn his way into the Hall of Fame? Not in my eyes. Did he hurt the Astros in the process of reaching the milestone? Yes, because he prevented more productive players from accruing playing time at the expense of a milestone relatively meaningless to his HOF chances. This is what bugs me about the milestones: if you need a specific number for everyone to believe you belong, chances are you do not belong.

The Hall of Fame is certainly about numbers but it is also about impact. Sandy Koufax came nowhere near 300 wins, and was only effective in 6 of his 12 seasons, yet he was a no-doubter. Garret Anderson is 36 yrs old, somewhere between a +0.7 and +1.0 win player this season, and will be pretty lucky to find work next season barring an abnormally strong 2009 campaign. Still, I’m holding out hope that he lasts for another few seasons, gets his 3,000th hit, effectively destroying the credibility of the milestone in the process. 3,000 hits is a tremendous feat for any hitter to accomplish, but it should in no way signal an automatic berth into the Hall of Fame without the impact of the player taken into context as well.

The San Diego Padres’ minor league system has been helped by two straight, strong drafts – which included quite a few advanced college hitters. The club has also been focusing on signing players out of Latin America, which is beginning to have an impact. The strength of the system is hitting and there is very little in the pitching cupboard thanks, in part, to injuries to former top picks such as Cesar Carrillo and Nick Schmidt.

AAA/AA
First baseman Kyle Blanks doesn’t really look like a National League style of player… He’s 6’6” and not far off 300 pounds. Despite his size, though, Blanks is surprisingly athletic and there has been talk about turning him into a left-fielder due to the presence of Adrian Gonzalez at first base. Along with having the best power in the system, which he doesn’t always make use of, Blanks hit .325 last season in Double-A. He also has the willingness to take a free pass (9.4 BB%) and does not strike out at a high rate (18.3 K%). Blanks is not exactly the type of player that is suited to playing in San Diego, thanks to the spacious park so he may be most valuable to the club as trade bait for more pitching.

Matt Antonelli was rushed last season and it showed. The former third baseman, now at second, appeared in just 49 games above A-ball in 2007 but began 2008 in Triple-A. Antonelli – whose value is tied into his batting average due to average power, hit just .215/.335/.322 in 451 at-bats at Triple-A and managed a .193 batting average in 57 MLB at-bats. On the plus side, Antonelli got his line up to .290/.391/.473 in 93 August at-bats after spending April and May below .200.

Will Venable, 26, is starting to enter a dangerous territory for prospects, having yet to establish himself at the Major League level despite passing his 25th birthday. Venable held his own in a brief MLB trial last season and hit .264/.339/.391 in 110 at-bats. However, the big club is deep in the outfield and there does not appear to be a spot for Venable, especially after the signing of veteran Cliff Floyd. Venable has an outside shot of making the club simply because he can play center field, although he is better suited to a corner spot.

A+/A
Mat Latos is the club’s best pitching prospect – and the most advanced despite appearing in just seven games above short-season ball in 2008 thanks to injuries. He conjures up memories of a young Bobby Jenks, of the White Sox, because he has a big-time fastball (can touch 97 mph) but he also has maturity issues. Along with the heater, Latos, 21, possesses a plus slider and a developing change-up. At three stops in 2008, he struck out 69 batters in 56 innings and also showed solid control. Like Jenks, Latos’ lack of drive/focus and injury problems could result in a move to the back of the bullpen.

Scouts felt Kellen Kulbacki’s outstanding college numbers were inflated by his environment, as well as the aluminum bats. Since being drafted in the supplemental first round in 2007, though, Kulbacki has done nothing but hit – for both average and power. In 2008, at High-A ball, the outfielder batted .332 and slugged 20 home runs, albeit playing in a hitter’s league. Impressively, though, Kulbacki also showed good control of the strike zone and posted a walk rate of 13.4 BB% and a strikeout rate of just 17.2 K%.

Yet another outfield prospect, Cedric Hunter, 20, hit .318/.362/.442 in 584 High-A at-bats in 2008. He did not walk much (6.7 BB%), but he also avoided the strikeout (8.0 K%). Hunter lacks the first-step quickness needed to be a prolific base stealer and his range in center in average. Because he won’t hit for much power, most of his value is tied into hitting for average. He led the minor leagues in hits in 2008 with 186.

Allan Dykstra was the club’s first-round pick in the 2008 draft but almost failed to come to terms due to a pre-existing medical condition discovered in his pre-contract physical. Dykstra is a one-dimensional slugger with below-average athleticism. He has a lot of power, though, and could develop into an on-base machine. He appeared in just seven games after signing in 2008, but hit .292 and took seven free passes in High-A ball.

SS/R
Adys Portillo was given $2 million last season to sign out of Latin America. Only 17, Portillo can already touch 95 mph but he lacks a consistent breaking ball. His second pitch right now is an average change-up. His command/control is below average and he has a lot of work to do before reaching his considerable ceiling.

Outfielder Jaff Decker was considered an advanced high-school hitter when he was drafted by the Padres organization, which traditionally favors college bats. Decker did not disappoint the club and he hit .352/.523/.541 in 159 rookie ball at-bats before a late, three-game taste of A-ball. In the rookie league, Decker posted a ridiculous walk rate of 25.7 BB% and a strikeout rate of 22.6 K%. Along with five home runs, he also stole nine bases. The biggest knock on Decker is his size: 5’10” 190 pounds.

Second baseman Cole Figueroa could be one of the steals of the 2008 draft after being taken in the sixth round as a draft-eligible sophomore. In his debut in short-season ball, he hit .289/.410/.474 with rates of 17.4 BB% and 14.0 K% in 114 at-bats. Figueroa also slugged five home runs and stole seven bases. He has some work to do in the field, but he should develop into an above-average offensive second baseman.

James Darnell was another key 2008 draft pick out of college. The third baseman signed late and appeared in just 16 games but he hit .373 in short-season ball and displayed above-average power. Defensively, Darnell has a strong arm but needs to work on his fielding and accuracy of throws.

Up Next: The Seattle Mariners

We’ve updated the Bill James Handbook Projections to the latest and greatest. They’re available right now individually in the player pages. If you want them in a sortable form (with some extra fields) you can purchase them directly from Baseball Info Solutions.