ZiPS Projections!
The ZiPS projections, courtesy of Dan Szymborski and Baseball Think Factory are now available in the player pages, the sortable projections area, and the customizable my projections area!
You can download a spreadsheet of the projections here: ZiPS 2009: Build 2
This completes the five different projection systems we’ll carry for this season, assuming there’s no major updates.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Which part of that did you object to?
Great news!
And while we’re at it, how about adding Bill James to the sortable projections page as well? Unless I’ve missed something, I don’t see a reason why it’s not already there.
GRADY WITH 122 RBI? Is this coming from MLB 09 the Show? Ian Stewart 95 RBI?
I’ve heard that Dan Szymborski doesn’t project playing time–if so, how are projected PA, uh, projected? Also, it looks as if ZiPS has no regression to the mean, or that its affect is very small, what with Ryan Howard’s 49 homers, Rich Harden’s 2.37 ERA (whoa!), and Chipper Jones’ .339 batting average.
All very probable 🙂
Dan does get his playing time from the previous years’ playing times. From the ZiPS FAQ: Q. How is playing time calculated? A. Based solely on recent playing time. ZiPS, as a consequence, only projects injuries to the extent that the injuries were properly reflected by the previous playing time.
So you’ll see several players coming off injuries projected to less time than you would expect, and see players like Tim Hudson getting playing time you know he won’t have.
And the Sizemore projection is whack. Teixeira with a better projected OBP and SLG projects to only 103 RBI. It’s giving Grady extra AB for hitting leadoff but not taking this into account for RBI purposes.