The top four prospects in the organization will make you drool a little bit, but the system drops off significantly after that and lacks depth. Injuries have also taken quite a toll on a number of players in the system – especially pitchers.

AAA/AA
Obtained from Seattle for Erik Bedard, Chris Tillman’s results finally matched up to his stuff in 2008. The 20-year-old right-hander allowed just 115 hits in 135 Double-A innings. He posted rates of 4.31 BB/9 and 10.22 K/9. Once he improves his control, Tillman could establish himself as a solid No. 2 starter in the Majors with a repertoire that includes an 88-94 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

Jake Arrieta has been a pleasant surprise for the Orioles and could develop into a reliable No. 3 starter. The right-hander fell in the 2007 draft after signability became a concern but the Orioles got him with a hefty deal for a fifth-round selection. He signed late and did not make his regular season debut until 2008 and he spent the entire year in High-A, although he deserved a promotion after about two months. Arrieta, 23, allowed just 80 hits in 113 innings of work and he posted rates of 4.06 BB/9 and 9.56 K/9. His fastball can touch 97 mph, and he also utilizes a slider, curveball and change-up.

I like David Hernandez more than most. He has the potential to be an excellent No. 4 starter. In 2008, the right-hander allowed just 112 hits in 141 innings in Double-A. He struggled with his control and posted a walk rate of 4.53 BB/9, but he also struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings for the second straight year: 10.60 K/9. Hernandez will open 2009 in Triple-A but could see the Majors sooner rather than later given the state of the Orioles’ starting rotation. He features a fastball that can touch 93 mph, as well as a slider and change-up.

After the Bedard trade, Kam Mickolio went from seldom-talked-about sleeper to Major Leaguer and intriguing prospect who could play a key role in 2009. The 6’9” pitcher played at three levels in 2008 and posted a 4.70 ERA in Double-A, a 1.80 ERA in Triple-A and a 5.87 ERA in the Majors (in 7.2 innings). The right-hander struck out a total of 71 batters in 66 innings and allowed 60 hits. Mickolio threw his fastball almost 82% of the time in the Majors and mixed in his slider. He can touch the mid-90s with the heater and could be in line for a set-up role in 2009.

The top player in the system and the best catching prospect in all of baseball, Matt Wieters is ready to play everyday in the Majors, even though 2008 was his first season in pro ball after signing late in 2007 as a first round draft pick out of college. He split the 2008 season between High-A and Double-A and dominated both levels with the bat, while showing above-average potential behind the dish. Wieters hit .365/.460/.625 with 12 homers in 208 Double-A at-bats. In total, he slugged 27 homers and drove in 89 runs in 437 at-bats. In order to delay his arbitration eligibility, Baltimore is expected to send Wieters down to Triple-A to begin the 2009 season but he should be back in May and could be a candidate for Rookie of the Year in the American League.

A+/A
Brandon Erbe has had an up-and-down career so far, but the good news is that he is just 21, despite beginning his fifth pro season. After a disappointing 2007 (6.26 ERA), Erbe returned to High-A ball in 2008 and pitched well. He allowed 120 hits in 150.2 innings of work and posted rates of 2.99 BB/9 and 9.02 K/9. He did, though, allowed 21 home runs, which was seven more than he allowed in 2007 (although he threw 31 more innings in ’08). Erbe needs to improve his change-up. He also features a fastball that can touch the mid-90s and a slider.

Bill Rowell was drafted ahead of fellow prep star Travis Snider in the first round of the draft in 2006. However, while Snider was making his MLB debut in 2008, Rowell was riding the buses in High-A ball. Overall, the 20-year-old hit just .248/.315/.368 with seven homers in 375 at-bats. Rowell has massive power potential but it has yet to show up in game situations. He has shown a lack of dedication to the game at times, which has hurt his development. Rowell needs to have a good season in 2009 and remain injury free.

Brandon Snyder’s prospect standing took a hit when he was unable to stay behind the plate and moved to first base in 2008. The 22-year-old former first round pick (2005) showed a little more power in 2008 than what was expected, but he still projects to have average-at-best power for a corner infielder. He spent 2008 in High-A ball and hit .315/.358/.490 with 33 doubles and 13 homers in 435 at-bats. Snyder is not a great defender at first base and he could end up in the outfield.

Nolan Reimold recovered from two sub-par seasons to have a very nice year in 2008 at Double-A. The power-hitting corner outfielder had a line of .284/.367/.501 with 25 homers in 507 at-bats. Reimold posted rates of 11.1 BB% and 16.2 K%%. Already 25, he will have a hard time breaking into the talented Orioles outfield, although he could take advantage of struggles by recently-acquired Felix Pie.

SS/R
Brian Matusz was the club’s first pick in the 2008 draft and he was considered one of the top two college pitchers available. The southpaw has yet to make his pro debut but he should begin 2009 in High-A ball. Matusz features a low-90s fastball, plus curveball, slider and change-up.

L.J. Hoes was another 2008 draft pick, although he was taken out of high school. The second baseman had a nice debut with the bat and hit .308/.416/.390 with 10 stolen bases. He posted rates of 15.9 BB% and 13.8 K% and could move quickly for a prep draft pick.

Up Next: The New York Mets

As we finish out the top eight, all of the remaining clubs earn an overall grade of A-, A, or A+. These eight franchises have separated themselves from the rest of the pack – there’s probably a bigger gap between #8 and #9 than between #8 and #4, for instance. If you root for any of the upcoming teams, you should be very pleased. The future looks bright for all the upcoming franchises.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
#9: Arizona Diamondbacks
#8: Atlanta Braves
#7: Chicago Cubs
#6: Milwaukee Brewers
#5: New York Mets

#4: Cleveland Indians

Ownership: B

Since Larry Dolan bought the team in 2000, they’ve gone from a high payroll team down to a low-to-mid payroll franchise, but that coincided with a significant rebuilding period. As the team has grown back into a contender, Dolan has significantly increased his investment in the budget, and the team spent nearly $80 million in 2008. Dolan has shown a willingness to spend money on a contending franchise, and while they won’t be able to compete with the New York/Boston/Chicago markets in payroll, they’ll have enough capital to put competitive teams on the field.

Front Office: A+

Mark Shapiro and his gang of advisers set the standard for how a front office should operate. The implementation of DiamondView gave them the ability to combine scouting and statistical data into a resource that could be used at all levels of the organization. They’ve established a fundamental system that works from top to bottom, and explore every area that could give them a competitive advantage. They understand how to value talent, where the inefficiencies are, how to build a roster that works together, and how to sustain winning teams through player development. It’s hard to find any chinks in the armor – the Indians front office is what everyone else aspires to be.

Major League Talent: B

If Travis Hafner shows that his recent struggles were an extended slump and not a nose dive off the cliff, they’d grade out better here. Even with his bat as a question mark, though, they are still the best team in the AL Central. Grady Sizemore is an MVP candidate, and the surrounding cast includes valuable players such as Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, and Shin-Soo Choo. The additions of Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood help patch some holes from last year’s roster, and while the rotation has question marks, the team has depth of starters to cycle through until they find a combination that works. The team might be a player away from a true championship contender, but the core is strong for the future and they have the pieces in place to make a mid-season acquisition if they deem it necessary.

Minor League Talent: B+

The team got some needed impact talent by trading away CC Sabathia and Casey Blake last summer, netting themselves their two best prospects in return – Matt LaPorta and Carlos Santana. Both are close to being major league ready and have the ability to contribute as everyday players. After those two, there’s significant depth of lower upside guys – Nick Weglarz is an interesting bat with some long term concerns about his abilities to stay in the OF. Beau Mills can hit, but his position is clouded, especially with LaPorta ahead of him. Adam Miller is looking at another surgery. Luis Valbuena, Wes Hodges, David Huff, Michael Brantley, and Lonnie Chisenhall profile as solid but not great major leaguers. There’s a good group of young players on the farm, but LaPorta and Santana are the only two who project out as significantly above average players.

Overall: A-

The Indians have a good major league team built around a solid young core, an above average farm system that should deliver several more young players into the fold shortly, and a baseball operations department that runs the team exceptionally well. Only their mid-market payrolls keep them from the top tier. This is a team that should be the favorite in the AL Central for years to come.

Anticipating that their star second baseman Chase Utley would miss significant time this year while recovering from offseason hip surgery, the Phillies issued several spring training invitations to middle infielders in the hope that one could potentially fill the void. Eric Bruntlett already held down a spot on the roster, but the Phillies were willing to take a look at prospect Jason Donald as well as the formerly employed triumvirate of Miguel Cairo, Marcus Giles, and Pablo Ozuna.

The hopes of everyone mentioned above not named Bruntlett were essentially dashed when the robotic Utley not so shockingly expedited his rehab to the point that he should be ready for opening day. Donald has already been demoted to AAA, and with both Utley and Rollins not going anywhere for some time, the Phillies should really be looking to unload the youngster. The futures of Giles and Ozuna are less clear but it is already apparent that they are not making the big league team. Miguel Cairo, however, will be a Philadelphia Phillies player come opening day, a fact that is eliciting negative responses from many that don’t seem to hold a ton of water.

I can more than respect the distaste over the idea that Cairo is taking the spot of Donald, who looked good this past month. I can also understand that he might not serve as much of a purpose with Bruntlett already garnering utilityman status. And even further, I can comprehend why some fans would be weary of his earning a spot on the team based on spring training numbers, but all of this supposed hatred for Cairo seems to be stemming from the wrong reasons.

The Phillies are not giving him a uniform to be an everyday starter, or even a platoon partner with another starting player. Cairo will likely serve as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement who will make occasional starts and help fill-in when the inevitable injury bug rears its ugly head. He is not a good hitter by any stretch of the imagination but he has proven himself more than capable on the basepaths and has played league average or better defense at just about every non-catcher position over the past few seasons.

Plus, it isn’t as if the Phillies signed him to a contract reminiscent of Geoff Jenkins‘ deal, which looks very bad given the monetary magnitude as well as the fact that the Phillies have a very solid starting outfield and also have to reserve some plate appearances for Matt Stairs. And if they decide to give John Mayberry Jr. a shot, Jenkins and his $8-9 mil are the odd man out.

This is not the case for Cairo, who signed a minor league deal without the guarantee of a roster spot. This move seems to be motivated moreso by the contractual stipulation that Cairo can opt to seek employment elsewhere should he not make the Phillies opening day roster, in conjunction with Jason Donald still having options. There is such low risk involved with giving Cairo this spot; if he stinks in the very limited duty, cut him and bring up Donald. If he thrives or stays true to expectations, he will likely have the chance to do more good than harm. Plus, he’s a former Mariner, so the Phillies are required to give him a roster spot.

Yesterday, we took a look at what goes into infield defense by examining the cases of Mike Jacobs and Hanley Ramirez. Keeping with the themes of defense and, well, the Florida Marlins, I decided to check some data out at the suggestion of colleague Brian Cartwright. Brian astutely pointed out that both Ramirez and second baseman Dan Uggla have posted similar fielding numbers in the sense that both looked slightly different in 2006 and 2008 than they did the year in between.

Interestingly enough, Miguel Cabrera’s defense at third base has followed the same trend, -4 in 2006, -8 in 2007, and -4 in 2008. Of course, Cabrera did not play for the Marlins last season, and was replaced by Jorge Cantu, who proceeded to post a -6 UZR. Let’s visualize the overall UZR numbers for their infield in this span, stacked up next to each other:

Name      2006   2007   2008
Jacobs    -3.2   -4.1  -11.1
Uggla     +7.0   -9.6   +2.9 
Ramirez   -5.5  -19.1   -0.3
Cabrera*  -4.3   -8.1   -6.2

*-Cantu for 2008

In 2006, Jacobs and Cabrera were quite comparable. The next season, Jacobs declined slightly while Cabrera fell off much more, yet their infield peers, perhaps in trying to make up the difference, lost 14-16 runs from the year prior. Last season, the third base situation improved a bit and Ramirez bounced back fantastically. Conversely, Jacobs experienced a vast decrease in his defensive mark and Uggla gained 11-12 runs.

Their respective ranges produce similar results. While we might expect worse range from Jacobs and Cabrera/Cantu to lead to worse UZR marks for Uggla and Ramirez, there seems to be more at work here. Cabrera’s range decline of a couple of runs cannot be the sole contributing factor to Ramirez’s overall defensive mark falling completely off the chart. Likewise, how would Uggla get that much better if Jacobs also fell by the wayside?

As the Chase Utley/Ryan Howard example showed, where Utley posted a ridiculous + – score largely due to Howard’s lack of range, worse range at a position right next door can lead to more opportunities. Unfortunately, many forget that more opportunities can also lead to more failure, but Ramirez and Uggla did not cost their team drastically more error runs than they had in 2006, meaning their extra opportunities were not as detrimental as you might think.

As both MGL and I have shown here, more range actually leads to less errors, and vice versa, with less range leading to more errors, but even when the ranges of Ramirez and Uggla took significant hits in 2007, they did not experience huge shifts in errors compared to the league average fielder at their position.

It makes perfectly good intuitive sense that when the infielder playing next to you shows poor range, that your numbers would also suffer, but that does not seem to be the definitive case here. Perhaps something else is at work, like the pitchers being hit very hard, or both players experiencing the injury bug, but I do not have the end all solution here. Maybe a wisdom of the crowd approach would serve well to answer this question. So, what say you? Why would the defensive numbers of Ramirez and Uggla drop so drastically in 2007 when Jacobs and Cabrera did not take too significant of a hit? And why then would Ramirez and Uggla improve even though Jacobs severely worsened?

As we finish out the top eight, all of the remaining clubs earn an overall grade of A-, A, or A+. These eight franchises have separated themselves from the rest of the pack – there’s probably a bigger gap between #8 and #9 than between #8 and #4, for instance. If you root for any of the upcoming teams, you should be very pleased. The future looks bright for all the upcoming franchises.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
#9: Arizona Diamondbacks
#8: Atlanta Braves
#7: Chicago Cubs
#6: Milwaukee Brewers

#5: New York Mets

Ownership: A-

The Wilpons have certainly not been afraid to spend money since taking over ownership in 2002. They’ve also managed to get Shea Stadium replaced, which should only add to the significant revenues they already enjoy. Thanks to the New York media market, the Mets should be one of the best capitalized teams in baseball going forward. Even the Wilpon’s meddling can’t overcome the financial advantage the team enjoys.

Front Office: C

Omar Minaya is a pretty good scout. He does a good job of identifying young players who can contribute at the major league level. However, he’s just not good at the valuation aspect of the GM job – trying to figure out how much to pay for different skills, finding inefficiencies in the market, and putting together a roster that maximizes the assets he has. The Oliver Perez signing, the K-Rod signing, the J.J. Putz trade are all examples of identifying players who could help his team but not understanding how much those players should cost, given the availability of alternatives in the market. When handed a payroll large enough to give him the ability to overpay, he can build a contending roster, but most GMs in baseball could do more with the same resources. There are smart people working for the Mets, but they have the wrong guy in charge, and that’s a problem.

Major League Talent: A-

Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Johan Santana are all among the elite players in the game. It’s hard to imagine a team with those four not contending for the World Series, honestly. The supporting cast leaves you wanting, however. Ryan Church is solid when healthy, but that’s not often. Mike Pelfrey and John Maine have talent, but as the #3 and #4 starters on a contender? Carlos Delgado has held off decline, but for how much longer? Just a lot of questions surround the non-elite part of the roster. However, the big four are so good that they make up for a lot of issues, and there’s enough talent in the supporting cast to imagine this team winning a World Series if enough things go right.

Minor League Talent:: B-

Is Fernando Martinez the next Hanley Ramirez or Ruben Rivera? His aggressive promotion schedule makes his performances tough to judge in proper context, but most still believe in his physical abilities. Jon Niese is a good but not great pitching prospect, and Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte are high upside guys that aren’t anywhere close to the majors. So, while there’s talent, there’s not a lot of upper level depth, and there aren’t any guys on the system who don’t have a real question mark that needs to be answered. The Mets will have to get by with what they have for a little while, but there are valuable assets in the system, so if they need to make a few more big trades, they can.

Overall: A-

Thanks to a roster that should be favored to make the playoffs for the next few years and a stream of revenue that allows the GM to cover his mistakes, the Mets are in a good position to win for a while despite a front office that could use some improvement. There are wasted opportunities in Queens that are keeping the Mets from being up with the cream of the crop, but they have enough current advantages to give them quite a bit of margin for error. They need every bit of that wiggle room, but this team is too talented to keep getting shut out of October baseball for much longer.

There are a few interesting prospects in the Phillies system, but it’s uninspiring for the most part thanks to lackluster drafts and some trades. My favorite player in the system, Adrian Cardenas, was used to obtain Joe Blanton from Oakland last season… but you can’t exactly find fault with how the year ended for the organization. I know Eric was mildly pleased.

AAA/AA
What to make of Carlos Carrasco? The soon-to-be 22-year-old hurler was having a pretty impressive minor league career until he visited Pennsylvania. The right-hander spent parts of two seasons at Double-A Reading, PA and his numbers were not good. Carrasco lost about 2.0 K/9 off his stats sheet over both seasons and his command/control regressed as well. Apparently, though, Triple-A suits him much better. After a promotion out Double-A last season, the Venezuelan posted a 1.72 ERA (2.19 FIP) in six starts. He allowed 37 hits in 36.2 innings and posted rates of 3.19 BB/9 and 11.29 K/9. It’s a good thing he doesn’t have to see Pennsylvania agai… Oh. Never mind.

Left-hander J.A. Happ rebounded from a poor season in Triple-A in 2007 and pitched well in both Triple-A and the Majors in 2008. The 26-year-old hurler has positioned himself to leave spring training with the big club this season, although his role could come in the bullpen or starting rotation. Last season, Happ allowed just 116 hits in 135 innings of work in Triple-A. He also posted rates of 3.20 BB/9 and 10.07 K/9. Not overpowering, he benefits from deception on his 88-91 mph fastball. Happ also has a good change-up and a slider.

Watch out, Ruiz, Paulino, and Coste. Catcher Lou Marson is about a half season away from becoming the No. 1 catcher on the Phillies. The right-handed hitter has improved offensively each season in the minors and had a solid year in Double-A in 2008. He hit .314/.433/.416 with a .102 ISO in 322. Right now, the biggest hole in his offensive game is the lack of power. Marson will take more than his fair share of walks (17.4 BB%) although he strikes out a bit too much (21.7 K%). He is solid but not spectacular behind the plate and his arm is not very strong, although he threw out more than 35% of base stealers in 2008.

A number of teams showed interest in trading for shortstop Jason Donald last season, but the Phillies hung on to him. Playing in Double-A, the infielder hit .300 for the season for a second straight year, with a complete line of .307/.391/.497 with 14 homers and 11 stolen bases in 362 at-bats. Donald walked 11.5% of the time, and posted a strikeout rate of 23.8%. He needs to show more power in-game if he is going to move to third base, a likely destination given his below-average skills at shortstop. The 24-year-old could also end up as an offensive-minded utility player.

A+/A
Son of Doug, Kyle Drabek is a former first round draft pick out of high school. The right-hander’s career has been slowed by injuries and he had Tommy John surgery in 2007. Drabek returned in 2008 and showed much of his old self. In A-ball, he allowed just 11 hits in 20.1 innings, while walking six and striking out 10. His fastball can touch 95 mph, and he also features a good curveball and a developing change-up. Drabek’s lack of maturity is a concern.

Outfielder Dominic Brown is loaded with potential, but he is still scratching the surface on his baseball skills. He had a solid season in 2008 at A-ball by posting a line of .291/.382/.417 with 22 stolen bases in 444 at-bats. Brown posted good rates: 12.6 BB% and 16.2 K%. After getting caught stealing bases seven times in 29 attempts, he needs to improve his reads. Because he projects as a right fielder, the 21-year-old needs to show more power after hitting just nine homers last year with an ISO of .126. Keep an eye on Brown in 2009; he is a top candidate for a breakout season.

Michael Taylor had his breakout season in 2008. He wasn’t young for his leagues last year, though, and is entering 2009 as a 23-year-old prospect likely headed to Double-A. He split 2008 between A-ball and High-A. At the senior level he hit .329/.380/.560 with nine homers in 243 at-bats. In total, Taylor slugged 19 homers and stole 15 bases. The 6’6” 255 lbs outfielder needs to show a little more patience at the plate after walking just 7.3% of the time. His strikeout rate of 18.9% was reasonable for a power hitter. He has a strong arm but is just an average corner outfielder. Taylor still has some holes in his game so it will be interesting to see how he fares in Double-A in 2009.

Catcher Travis D’Arnaud was drafted out of high school in 2007 in the supplemental first round. He was considered a good defensive player, who might struggle with the bat. After 2008, though, it appears the 20-year-old could develop into an average hitter – at worst. D’Arnaud spent most of the season in extended spring training and short-season ball where he hit .309/.371/.463 with four homers in 175 at-bats. He received a late-season promotion to A-ball and hit .297 in 64 a-bats.

SS/R
Zach Collier was a 2008 supplemental first round draft pick out of high school. The 18-year-old hit better than expected in his rookie ball debut with a line of .271/.347/.357. He did not hit a home run in 129 at-bats, but he stole five bases. Collier could open the year in A-ball, if he has a good spring.

Up Next: The Baltimore Orioles

As we finish out the top eight, all of the remaining clubs earn an overall grade of A-, A, or A+. These eight franchises have separated themselves from the rest of the pack – there’s probably a bigger gap between #8 and #9 than between #8 and #4, for instance. If you root for any of the upcoming teams, you should be very pleased. The future looks bright for all the upcoming franchises.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
#9: Arizona Diamondbacks
#8: Atlanta Braves
#7: Chicago Cubs

#6: Milwaukee Brewers

Ownership: B-

Since Mark Attanasio bought the Brewers from the Selig Trust, the team has dramatically shifted gears. Payroll went from $27 million to $81 million in four years, and the team showed willingness to invest in the roster when opportunities arose, offering a significant deal to CC Sabathia. The team is profitable, even at these higher payroll numbers, and Attanasio is intent on winning. Things got a bit messy towards the end of the season when he demanded that manager Ned Yost be fired, but overall, he’s mostly stayed out of the baseball operations team’s way.

Front Office: A-

Perhaps the most under the radar of the sabermetric front offices, the Brewers are among the leading organizations in baseball in applying new ways of thinking to roster building. Doug Melvin has instituted a lot of forward thinking ideas, and there are a ton of smart people working up in Milwaukee. The loss oF Jack Zduriencik, Tony Blengino, and Tom McNamara hurts, but there are qualified men ready to fill their shoes. Melvin understands how to build an organization that can supply impact talent to he major league roster and how to surround those home grown players with valuable pieces from the outside. Milwaukee fans are in good hands with Melvin and his team.

Major League Roster: A-

Like the Diamondbacks, the Brewers have the best of both worlds – a core group of young talent that they can build around that is also capable of winning right now. Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy, Prince Fielder, and Yovanni Gallardo are all-star caliber players, while Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, David Bush, and Manny Parra are useful second tier pieces. Underrated players like Mike Cameron, Bill Hall, and Carlos Villanueva round out a roster that should be a wild card contender and could challenge the Cubs for the NL Central if everything goes right. They’ll have some decisions to make after the season, with a lot of expensive arbitration cases coming due, but they have enough assets to win now and win later.

Minor League Talent: A-

Even after trading prospects for Sabathia at the deadline, the team’s farm system remains very strong. Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, and Angel Solome provide potential as everyday position players who could be ready by 2010, helping to infuse another wave of talent into the major league roster. Jeremy Jeffress has a top notch arm, even with his off the field issues. Brett Lawrie has an advanced bat that should play anywhere, and his decision to play second base should get him through the minors fairly quickly. There’s good depth in the system as well, ranging from guys like Lorenzo Cain to Cutter Dykstra and Taylor Green. The Brewers have a lot of help on the way, or more potential trade pieces to help put them over the top in a playoff run.

Overall: A-

A smart front office, a talented young core that’s ready to win, and a very good selection of minor leaguers give the Brewers a chance to be good and stay good for quite a while. Their capital is a bit lower than most of the rest of thess elite franchises, which drags down their grade a bit, but they have a front office that can win with an $80 million payroll, especially given the cost controlled talent already in the organization. The Brewers are going to be fighting for a playoff spot for the foreseeable future, and they’ve earned their way into contention.

We’ve seen our last WBC action for the next four years. The attendance issues are a bit concerning given the American venues hosting the American team, but it’s hard to be disappointed with the championship game and crowd. Let’s talk about some of the aspects that may need tweaking.

Television
The WBC presented the first opportunity for the MLB Network to produce original broadcasts. The first round games, when Harold Reynolds was reserved to the studio, were easily the best called games of the tournament. The announcers largely allowed the action to dictate the talking points and emotion. There was no inherent bias and the announcers did some research, presenting compelling information on players most of us knew absolutely nothing about. Reynolds’ presence in the booth all but killed that, as he all but transformed the broadcasts into a typical ESPN broadcast.

Speaking ESPN, whoever thought it was a good idea to have Joe Morgan, Steve Phillips, and Bud Selig in the booth at one time during a meaningful and exciting game should really never work again. Never. Also, the apologetic comments after Derek Jeter made a mistake was ridiculous. Jeter is a great player, nobody is ever going to argue that, but guys, you don’t have to act like a sycophant towards him.

Scheduling
The “plus-one” games were pretty worthless, even if they determined seeding. Some will complain about Japan and Korea playing five times and about repeat matches in general. With a limited field in a double elimination tournament, it’s hard to not expect some rematches. Perhaps a reseeding is in order although I’m sure the idea of a compelling “rematch” storyline is too match to pass on.

Venues
American fan turnout seemed to disappoint. With the best moment coming during the U.S.’s last stand as a unified “U.S.A.” chant broke out during Evan Longoria’s at-bat. Otherwise, the Japan and Korean fans stole the tournament. Perhaps it was the odd body paint, drums, chants, or presence of thousands of Thunderstix, but the atmosphere came across as everything you would hope for in the title game.

Heading forward, you have to imagine the U.S.A. team will have to go to a non-MLB stadium for a set of games. Where is beyond me, and how that would work with the TV schedule is again beyond me. The Olympics do it though.

Participation
A lot will be made of the perceived “lack of representation” for the Americans. In many ways, this is setting up for a “Redeem Team” similar to U.S. Basketball, only without the run of dominance proceeding it. There’s no easy solution here. For selfish reasons, I wonder if the U.S. team would ever consider going to collegiate athletes or even minor leaguers. Obviously that lowers the talent threshold and the tournament occurring during the college season makes the former nearly impossible, but who wouldn’t have tuned in to see Stephen Strasburg hurl against Daisuke Matzuaka or Yu Darvish? The American team was a bit stale to watch because of the familiarity with the players especially when you contrast it to their opponents.

Expansion is probably the next big issue. Whether that means expanding the field and tweaking the elimination rules or simply holding a qualifying tournament during the American off-season, it will be interesting to see just how popular the tournament can become internationally over the next four years.

I’m not sure exactly what is going on with the Houston Astros and their skipper Cecil Cooper, but it has me particularly concerned for Astros fans everywhere. While writer Danny Knobler hung with Mr. Cooper, the Astros manager pulled his best Jimmy Rollins impression and predicted at least 90 victories for the team this season. Why, you ask, would he think that? Feast your eyes on this quotation:

“We have a terrific bullpen. We have one of the best closers in the game. We’ve got the ace in the National League. We’ve got three of the best offensive players at their position. We’ve got, if not the best, then one of the top catchers in baseball. I mean, c’mon. We’ve got what it takes. You’re telling me we’re not going to win that many games?”

Yes, Cecil, I’m telling you that you will not be winning that many games this year. Not with the current roster, at least, and not without significant visits from the luck fairy and career year wizard. I fully comprehend that the job of a manager involves motivating his players and putting them in the best possible position to succeed, but the above quote seems more like a comment a fanboy would make in one of Dave’s organizational rankings posts.

The Astro bullpen is quite capable of performing well but is in no way a lock to dominate the league. I have long been a fan of Geoff Geary but he is slightly above average at best. Doug Brocail is still a solid enough reliever albeit being interchangeable with a good number of other bullpen arms. Wesley Wright has shown signs of promise. And any of Tim Byrdak, Clay Hensley, and Chris Sampson is likely good for slightly above replacement level production. But do not tell me you fully expect Latroy Hawkins to pitch as well as he did down the stretch. Terrific bullpen? No. Solid? Maybe.

Jose Valverde is a good closer, no question about that, but I would not slot him in the top five in the entire game. Maybe in the senior circuit, but not in all of baseball. This take is at least defendable, however. Roy Oswalt has arguably been the most consistently great pitcher of the decade, but he is not the best in the entire league. Maybe top ten or top fifteen, but not the best. He happens to be an elite performer, but not the elite performer.

Cooper’s next point of contention is asinine at best, given that if a player was clearly the best offensively at his position, we would not be racking our brains trying to figure out who he is talking about.

Lance Berkman is a great player, but Berkman < Pujols. Carlos Lee can definitely rake, but Manny Ramirez and even Matt Holliday can stake claim as the best leftfielders with the stick. After that, who would even qualify as the best offensively at a position. Miguel Tejada? Pudge Rodriguez? Is he talking about Hunter Pence? I’m even willing to forgive this massive oversight because it is harmless when compared to his next statement.

I don’t know what year Cecil Cooper is living in, but Pudge Rodriguez as one of the, if not the, best catchers in the game? What is this, 1999? Rodriguez is, at best, a league average player nowadays based primarily on positional scarcity and defensive prowess. But one of the best in the game? Seriously?

Cooper and some of his players base their 90+ win logic on the fact that they won 86 games last year and have apparently improved. Astros, Pythagoras. Pythagoras, Astros. They are not going to win 90 or more games this year. End of story. Of course I don’t expect Cooper to come out and discuss the ineptitudes of the team, but he didn’t have to emphatically overestimate their talent.

Royals skipper Trey Hillman recently spoke about the defense of his new first baseman, Mike Jacobs, subtly hinting that the numbers deeming him poor are not entirely accurate. Jacobs, according to Hillman, is very good at handling the 3-1 plays in which the first baseman lobs the ball to the pitcher covering the base, which apparently makes him much more of a solid fielder than meets the eye. Whenever I read quotes like this, or stories about players discussing the shortcomings of defensive metrics, I get a bit annoyed because it seems that those doing the talking have a complete lack of understanding of how the metrics work. Hillman may be an innocent bystander in all of this, but his words, for whatever reason, tipped me over the top.

Mike Jacobs, over the last three seasons, has the following UZR numbers: -3.2, -4.1, -11.1. His Dewan + – numbers further confirm the fielding ineptitude. But when managers or players hear numbers like this, they automatically assume it refers to errors made, which is utterly incorrect. Let’s look further at Jacobs, shall we? Thankfully, UZR breaks down where the runs saved/allowed come from, and a more granular analysis at Jacobs shows that he is quite adept in certain areas and equally awful in others.

Jacobs’ double play stats averaged around -0.4 runs/season, placing him right around average. His error runs, which show the runs saved via not making errors relative to the average player at the position, average out to +0.5 runs/season. Essentially, those defending Jacobs because he does not make many errors are correct, but not making errors does not automatically result in a solid fielder. The issue with Mike Jacobs is range, and the fact that he, well, does not have any. Over the last three years, his range has cost the team an average of -6.0 runs.

Put everything together and a player with an average -6.1 runs/season on defense emerges. Certainly not the worst fielder in the history of the sport, but by no means an effective one. Jacobs looks solid in terms of double plays and limiting errors, but his lack of range prevents him from reaching balls that other first basemen can glove. So, just because Jacobs has the reputation of being a poor fielder does not necessarily mean he stinks in every aspect of fielding, and along similar lines, the areas in which he performs well, though important to the mainstream, are not the sole barometers for defensive prowess.

Jacobs’ former teammate, Hanley Ramirez, is another interesting defensive case study, as HanRam has the reputation for being a Jeter-esque fielder despite two league average or slightly worse seasons out of three in the big leagues. That’s right, in 2006 and 2008, Hanley the Manly put up UZR marks of -5.5 and -0.3, respectively, which are much better than the numbers posted by Jacobs given the difficulty of the position. Via positional adjustments, remember that, assuming 162 games for each player, an SS with a -7.5 run defensive mark is equal in overall fielding value to a first baseman with a +12.5 defensive mark, because 1B is very easy to play relative to captaining the infield.

What earned Ramirez the reputation was his -19 run performance in 2007, but getting granular once more shows an interesting tell. Ramirez has been above average in ability to turn double plays in all three of his seasons, and his error runs are not necessarily the ultimate cause of his defensive downfall either, as the -7.3 ErrR in 2007 was not significantly higher than the -5.8 ErrR in 2006. Look at his range runs, though: -1.1, -13.3, +2.5.

In both 2006 and 2008, Ramirez was virtually league average in terms of range, but he lost everything in 2007. The three years may not be a large enough sample from which to draw any conclusions, but my gut instinct tells me that the 2007 season is more fluky than indicative of his true talent level. We have two players here, one of whom is a poor fielder that elicits defense from fans based on an ignorance of what actually goes into evaluating fielding, and another who has garnered a reputation in the mainstream for one really bad year that may very well go down as a fluke among flukes. The bottom line is that more goes into fielding valuations than simply the “ability” to not make errors, and understanding these components is a must in order to ever have intellectual discourse regarding the subject.