Terrible news today – John Brattain has passed away at the age of 44. He was a great writer, and a remarkable asset to the community of baseball nerds that we’re all a part of. I never had any interaction with him, but enjoyed his work at a distance. We’ve lost a good one. My condolences to his family.
As we finish out the top eight, all of the remaining clubs earn an overall grade of A-, A, or A+. These eight franchises have separated themselves from the rest of the pack – there’s probably a bigger gap between #8 and #9 than between #8 and #4, for instance. If you root for any of the upcoming teams, you should be very pleased. The future looks bright for all the upcoming franchises.
Rankings So Far
#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
#9: Arizona Diamondbacks
#8: Atlanta Braves
#7: Chicago Cubs
Ownership: ?
With the Tribune companies sale of the club to an ownership group led by the Ricketts, the team is changing hands one more time. Unlike with the Padres situation, we don’t really have anything to judge the new owners by, so I’m just working off the assumption that the Cubs will continue to be fairly well capitalized, based on their revenues and market.
Front Office: B-
Believe it or not, Jim Hendry has a good eye for talent. When he was the Cubs scouting director, the team acquired a significant batch of young talent, and he consistently built farm systems that were supplying the Cubs with impact players. Since being promoted to GM, his weaknesses have been exposed, however – the team has had problems in how the young talent is integrated into the major league roster and the team has shown questionable discernment in handing out contracts to free agents. He’s built a quality major league roster, but squandered a lot of assets in getting there.
Major League Talent: A
For 2009, this is the best team in the National League. The line-up is going to put runs on the board in bunches, and the team isn’t sacrificing defense in order to build an offensive juggernaut. They have a roster full of players who contribute on both sides of the ball with skill sets that age well. The rotation is terrific, and even without a proven closer, the bullpen has a solid collection of interesting arms. There are depth issues, and with Milton Bradley and Rich Harden involved, you know the team isn’t going to be at full strength on most days, but they’ve got a team on the field that could be the class of the NL for the next several years.
Minor League Talent: C-
There’s Josh Vitters and then a pretty large gaping hole. The lack of minor league depth hurt the team over the winter, as the Padres couldn’t find enough interesting pieces to ask for in a Jake Peavy trade and required an additional team be involved in order to get enough quality prospects headed back towards San Diego. It’s a good thing the Cubs have a loaded major league team, because they aren’t going to get much help from the farm system for a couple of years.
Overall: A-
The Cubs management has made a lot of mistakes, but their payroll gives them a lot of room for error, and they’ve managed to assemble a top tier major league roster even with their questionable judgments. If Hendry and company can stay out of the way, the team should be playing in a World Series in the next few years – there’s just way too much talent on the 25 man roster for them to not make it deep into October sooner than later. Given the state of the farm system and the lack of a great young core at the major league level, the fall-off could be pretty steep down the line, but for right now, they’re legitimate contenders for the foreseeable future.
There is not a ton of depth in the upper levels of the system, but there are some impressive bats on the way – with one that could develop into a superstar. The Yankees organization, though, always seems to be able to squeeze every ounce of potential out of its prospects, as long as they remain healthy.
AAA/AA
Alfredo Aceves and Phil Coke both made good impressions with the Yankees last season despite receiving little-if-any hype prior to the 2008 season, as both would have been lucky to be described as No. 5 starter candidates. Right-hander Aceves, 26, posted a 2.40 ERA in 30 innings, although his FIP told a different story at 4.80. He allowed just 25 hits but his strikeout rate was rather low at 4.80 K/9 and his walk rate was a respectable 3.00. Aceves’ repertoire includes a fastball that sits around 91 mph, as well as a cutter, change-up and curveball. Left-hander Coke took to the bullpen in his MLB debut and posted an ERA of 0.61 in 14.2 innings. His FIP was far more favorable at 1.63. The 26-year-old hurler allowed eight hits, while posting rates of 1.23 BB/9 and 8.59 K/9. Both players could be useful MLB pitchers, but their ceilings are limited.
Mark Melancon has fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and he flew threw the minor league system while playing at three levels in 2008, including his final stop at Triple-A. At the senior level, Melancon allowed just 11 hits in 20 innings pitched. He also walked just four with 22 strikeouts. In total, the right-hander allowed 69 hits in 95 innings. Impressively, his strikeout rate rose during each promotion and topped out at 9.90 K/9 in Triple-A. Melancon, 23, is in a perfect position to help out in New York in 2009.
Arguably the Yankees’ best prospect, outfielder Austin Jackson is still raw in many facets of his game, but his tools and potential are undeniable. Only 22, he had a solid season in Double-A last year with a line of .285/.354/.419 with nine homers and 19 stolen bases in 520 at-bats. He also posted rates of 9.7 BB% and 21.7 K%. He didn’t run a lot last year and he also does not have a ton of home run power in his bat. That said, he is a solid all-around player who does a little bit of everything and plays above-average defense. Jackson could very be patrolling center field for the Yankees before the end of 2009.
A+/A
He’s moved along slowly but Dellin Betances is still only 20 (soon to be 21), having been drafted out of high school in 2006. The right-hander is loaded with potential but he has been bitten by the injury bug a fair bit in his young career. Betances threw well last year in A-ball by allowing just 87 hits in 115.1 innings of work, with rates of 4.60 BB/9 and 10.53 K/9. He also allowed just nine home runs (0.70 HR/9). The injuries have slowed his development of a change-up but his fastball can touch 97 mph and his curveball is a plus pitch at times. He could split 2009 between High-A and Double-A if he’s healthy all year.
Zach McAllister is another promising but raw young pitcher. He was also taken in the 2006 draft and five rounds higher than Betances. Despite that fact, McAllister is not as flashy as his system-mate and has a lower ceiling. His fastball can hit 94 mph, but he pitches more to contact and lacks a reliable out-pitch. Both his change-up and curveball are still in the developmental stages. Last season, he split the year between two A-ball affiliates. In High-A, he allowed 74 hits in 88.2 innings and posted rates of 1.32 BB/9 and 6.29 K/9.
Jesus Montero has the potential to be a monster offensive player in the big leagues. He’s only 19 and will be playing at High-A ball in 2009. Last season in A-ball, Montero hit .326/.376/.491 with 17 home runs and 87 RBI in 525 at-bats. He walked just 6.6% of the time and posted a strikeout rate of 15.8 K%, which is excellent for a young power hitter. Montero’s defense behind the plate has improved, but it’s still below average and there are not many people who think he’ll remain a catcher for longer. He could be in New York in 2010, especially if it’s at 1B, DH or LF.
Austin Romine could soften the blow if Montero has to move off catcher. The 20-year-old held his own in his first full season in A-ball. Considered more advanced with the glove than the bat, Romine hit .300/.344/.437 with 10 home runs in 407 at-bats. He posted rates of 5.8 BB% and 13.8 K%. Romine will likely split time behind the dish with Montero again in 2009.
Brad Suttle is a solid third-base prospect, but he lacks the traditional power expected from the hot corner. Regardless, he has a lot of potential and should hit for a solid average with 15-20 home runs while playing good defense. In his first full season, Suttle hit .271/.348/.456 with 11 home runs in 377 at-bats.
SS/R
Arodys Vizcaino, 18, had an impressive showing in rookie ball in 2008. The right-hander possesses a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, as well as a curveball that shows plus potential. The downside to Vizcaino, though, is that he’s only 6’0”… although some reports have him reaching 6’2” now, which would definitely work in his favor. Andrew Brackman was given a boatload of money to sign out of college in 2007 as a first-round draft pick but he immediately had Tommy John surgery and has yet to pitch in the regular season. The 6’10” hurler should make his regular season debut in A-ball in 2009.
Jeremy Bleich, 21, was the club’s top pick in 2008 and he appeared in just one game after signing. The southpaw has a solid three-pitch mix, which includes a fastball that can hit the low 90s and two solid secondary pitches: a curveball and change-up. He’ll likely open 2009 in A-ball and could move quickly.
Up Next: The Philadelphia Phillies
As we finish out the top eight, all of the remaining clubs earn an overall grade of A-, A, or A+. These eight franchises have separated themselves from the rest of the pack – there’s probably a bigger gap between #8 and #9 than between #8 and #4, for instance. If you root for any of the upcoming teams, you should be very pleased. The future looks bright for all the upcoming franchises.
Rankings So Far
#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
#9: Arizona Diamondbacks
#8: Atlanta Braves
Ownership: A-
As we’ve mentioned, corporate ownership generally isn’t a great thing for a franchise. However, the Braves have been swapped between media conglomerations and been lucky enough to have both invest in the franchise during their respective periods of control. Liberty Media took control from Time Warner in 2007 and significantly added to the payroll last year, then went on a spending spree this winter. With a major media market and a broad following thanks to their years on TBS, the team has plenty of revenue and should be able to sustain high level payrolls going forward.
Front Office: B+
Over the last 20 years, no one has developed a stronger player development pipeline than the Braves. They’ve mastered the art of drafting local kids, getting them into their system, and turning them into major league regulars. It’s been the foundation of their success, and the system is still in place. That continual stream of young talent has allowed them to compete even while making some questionable decisions at the major league level, and while the Braves still operate with little regard for statistical analysis, they are so good at scouting and development that they can succeed anyway. They’d do well to complement their strengths with some better understanding of major league value, but what they do well dwarfs the things they do poorly. As long as they keep developing a bundle of home grown stars, they’ll be contenders.
Major League Talent: B
Atlanta spent liberally this winter to rebuild their rotation, importing Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, plus bringing back Tom Glavine for added depth. Given the presence of Jair Jurrjens, a rehabbing Tim Hudson, and a young flamethrower like Tommy Hanson, they probably have the deepest starting rotation in baseball. They’re going to have to get quality pitching to make up for some offensive deficiencies, though, as the outfield is weak and the line-up depends heavily on Chipper Jones‘ health. The team is good enough to contend in the NL East this year, but the core going forward is going to need some help. Brian McCann is a great foundation behind the plate and Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, and Casey Kotchman have their strengths, the team needs a couple of young impact position players to keep winning beyond 2009.
Minor League Talent: A-
As always, the Braves system is stacked with talent. Hanson, as mentioned, is a premier young arm. Jason Heyward is an athletic outfielder who can hit, which is exactly what the Braves could use. Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez give the team a couple of center field options, Cole Rohrbough and Julio Teheran give the team some pitching depth. Freddie Freeman has solid upside as a power hitting first baseman. There’s just talent up and down the system, and the Braves future looks to be very bright given their up and coming talent.
Overall: A-
The Braves are the example for all franchises in terms of player development. Everyone should be envious of the way they are able to churn out high level talent from their farm system and keep it continually flowing from the low levels to the majors. However, some blind spots in their analytical processes have kept them from duplicating that success at the major league level, and while the 2009 team should be good, it’s unlikely to be great. If they ever integrate some more modern thinking about major league player analysis into their decision making, they could be unbelievably scary. For now, they’re just impressive.
As promised, let’s split up the starters from the relievers. Rather than set an innings barrier, I instead opted to eliminate all of those with less than 50% of their appearances coming in the form of starts. Our friendly neighborhood Ryan Franklin no longer qualifies to be spoken about and the overall numbers drop like you would expect. Here’s the causality breakdown:
5 P – 7 dropped
4 P – 34 dropped
3 P – 64 dropped
2 P – 30 dropped
That leaves:
5 P – 21 pitchers
4 P – 85
3 P – 70
2 P – 9
How did they fare?
If you’re thinking to yourself that those numbers look a lot like those presented yesterday, then you have a good memory. In fact, here’s the differentials between yesterday and today:
Note that a negative value indicates a drop in FIP.
5 P: 0.02 runs
4 P: 0.03 runs
3 P: 0.08 runs
2 P: 0.66 runs
As expected, looking at mostly starters sees the run averages increase.
To address some concerns from this analysis:
I’m not looking at grips, arm slots, release points, etc. instead simply the classification of the pitch. Some of the classifications are erroneous or too simplistic for the pitch style. That’s understandable.
Also not looking at the quality of the pitch, that would take examination on a pitch-by-pitch basis.
Looking at individual pitchers before and after the addition of a new pitch is definitely something I’ll look into pursuing. No guarantees though.
There is a situation brewing with the Seattle Mariners 25 man roster that has me aggravated. I am unsure if it is also going on anywhere else, but it is by no means completely unique. Namely, it appears likely the Mariners are headed toward breaking camp with three bona-fide catchers on the active roster.
The reason seems to be that they plan to have games with both Kenji Johjima and Jeff Clement, the nominal candidates for the starting catcher role, in the lineup at the same time, one at catcher and one at designated hitter. The fear is that in those games, if whoever the starting catcher is gets injured, moving the other catcher behind the plate will vacate the DH and move the pitcher into the lineup.
My problem with this stems from my same disgust with the 12-man pitching staff. Teams are sacrificing bench bats for highly specialized positional players and I think its costing them efficiency. First, how often is it that the starting catcher gets hurt to the degree that he has to be removed from the game? Once, maybe twice a season on average? There’s also the case of the catcher getting ejected, but that is also a self-controlled factor. Then you have to factor in that it would not be 100% of the games where the backup catcher would be slotted as the starting DH, so only a fraction of those one or two times would a situation arise that you would need to replace the starting catcher and not have a backup catcher available on the bench.
For those rare cases, there appears to be two options. One is to go with an emergency catcher, a Chris Shelton type. In general, that’s a bad solution, but it’s also a solution unlikely to kill you over the course of a portion of a single game. It’s not akin to running out of pitchers in a long extra inning game for example. The other obvious solution is to just shift the backup catcher to catcher and lose the DH for the rest of the game. Remember, we only need a solution for the remainder of that game because after that, another catcher can be recalled from Triple-A if needed.
We also have the factor that this situation would on average happen toward the middle of the game. So if you went with the losing the DH option, you’re likely to be close to pulling the starting pitcher for the bullpen by then anyways and you could at that point revert to NL-style PHs and RP management. If you went with the emergency catcher option, you’re also dealing with only a percentage of a game.
None of this is to say that carrying a third catcher is always a bad decision. My beef is that the above discussion never seems to appear. Because incremental improvements, such as bringing in a better pinch hitter 20 times a year, are hard for us to process, even when they sum up to far more than a single instance of dramatic failure, such as having to use an emergency catcher for three innings once, the typical conservative management in baseball would rather use a roster spot all season long to avoid having a possible problematic situation arise once than to improve their overall efficiency.
Over the last twenty or so years, the world of major league baseball has seen some of the best starting pitching in its history. The best of the best is generally referred as “the nine” as the group–Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, and Kevin Brown–consists of nine pitchers, all of whom are either locks for Cooperstown or have strong resumes that are overshadowed by fellow members. Schilling, now 42 years old, and who most recently pitched for the Boston Red Sox, missed the entire 2008 season due to injuries, and has decided to call it a career. His 20 seasons saw some remarkable pitching, combining a tremendous ability to miss bats with pinpoint control and strategy derived from some of the most in-depth game preparation ever reported by a player.
Let me be blunt and get this out of the way: this post is going to praise Schilling the pitcher and I do not want to hear anyone say he is not worthy of post-career accolades based solely on his “only” having 216 wins.
After four seasons floundering around the Orioles and Astros organizations, the Philadelphia Phillies turned Schilling into a starting pitcher in 1992, when the swingman logged 226.1 innings with a 2.35 ERA and 2.91 FIP. He made 42 appearances of which 26 were starts and still managed to throw 10 complete games. The next season, despite posting somewhat regressed numbers with a 4.02 ERA and 3.46 FIP, Schill pitched the Phillies into the playoffs and came very close to winning his first world series title. The next several seasons would be spent on Phillies teams that came nowhere near their 1993 success, but Schilling still managed to dominate, increasing his K/9 past 10.0 while hovering around 2.0 with his walk rate.
Tired of the Phillies losing ways and inability to do what it took to win, Schilling demanded a trade and soon found himself a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. That 2000 season was not one of his best but you have to have a damn good track record for a 3.81 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 210.1 innings to be considered a down year. As we all know, with Randy Johnson already in the fold, likely the best 1-1A punch ever led the DBacks to win the whole thing in 2001. It’s a shame we do not have the win values for the 2001 season here because odds are Schilling would have the highest consecutive total of the decade, if not longer, with his 01-02 numbers. During that storied season, Curt put up a 2.98 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 256.2 innings to go along with a ridiculous 7.51 K/BB ratio.
His 2002 season produced +9.7 wins, thanks to a 3.23 ERA, 2.40 FIP and 9.58 K/BB in 259.1 innings. The injury bug bothered Curt in 2003, limiting his availability to just 24 starts, but his numbers remained so stellar that they produced +5.9 wins. Extrapolated out over the remainder of the season, Schilling would have likely been closer to +7.5 wins. Stilll, +5.9 wins added is nothing to scoff at but he had been so incredibly dominant the previous two seasons that the total looks a bit low.
A change of scenery was in store once again following the 2003 campaign as Schilling joined the Boston Red Sox. In a full season, he produced +7.3 wins in 226 innings and helped lead the team to their first world series since trading Babe Ruth. Schilling would once again suffer from injuries in 2005, even spending some time as the team’s closer, but he pitched so effectively in 69 innings that his win value still surpassed the league average mark of +2.0. 2006 saw a return to form for arguably the best post-season pitcher of all time, as Schilling logged over 200 frames and produced +5.5 wins. And just like his 2005 season, Schilling missed time in 2007 but still managed to look great, falling just shy of +3 wins, and earning another world series ring in the process.
Since 2002, Schilling has +33.4 wins to his name, a number that looks even better on a per-game basis due to the time he missed. He has extremely solid career rates, has been virtually untouchable in the playoffs, has three world series championship rings, and has become a legend thanks to that bloody sock. Curt Schilling did not have a career akin to Maddux, Johnson, or Pedro, but he is a surefire Hall of Fame pitcher in the mind of this writer, and should be congratulated for a great career.
Today, we launch the top ten, heading towards the top spot and closing out this series. All of the teams that we discuss this week are legitimate contenders for both this year and the future, and these are the organizations that the rest of baseball is chasing.
Rankings So Far
#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
#9: Arizona Diamondbacks
Ownership: C
Honestly, this one’s a bit tough to figure out. Since the D’Backs were purchased by a group of investors, they’ve trimmed payroll back from the free spending days of Jerry Colangelo and operated more like a small to mid market franchise. They haven’t spent more than $70 million on the major league roster for the last five years, though they did increase spending last year when they had a chance to contend. The ownership group has mostly kept their hands off the baseball operations department with the exception of the Eric Byrnes extension – hopefully they learned their lesson from that one. Jeff Moorad, who was the face of the ownership group, just left to run the Padres, so that adds another level of uncertainty about how the ownership group will operate going forward. I have a lot less conviction about this grade than most others.
Front Office: B
From a big picture standpoint, Josh Byrnes has done a good job of building a forward thinking organization that develops talent internally and can contend for the NL West for years to come. They’ve made their share of mistakes, and I think they had a pretty bad off-season in missing out on opportunities to take control of the NL West, but overall, they’ve shown that they have a pretty solid grasp of building rosters that can contend with limited payrolls. There’s room for improvement, but they won’t be held back by a bad management team.
Major League Talent: B
The core of young talent in place is impressive – Justin Upton, Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Chris Snyder, Conor Jackson, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Max Scherzer… there’s quantity and quality across multiple positions, and several of them have already been locked up at team-friendly salaries for years to come. The problem, though, is that the team lacks enough good players around that young core to help make them a championship contender right now. Eric Byrnes, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, and Felipe Lopez will earn nearly $30 million between them this year, and given that’s about 40% of the D’Backs payroll, they just aren’t getting enough bang for the buck. It leaves them as a good up and coming team that is going to need a lot to go right to be playing in October in 2009.
Minor League Talent: C
Since the system was thinned out significantly with the Dan Haren trade, picking out the top prospect here doesn’t take an expert – Jarrod Parker is a big time arm with a high ceiling and a good feel for pitching at age 20. After that, though, it gets sketchy – Daniel Schlereth has a power arm but his uspide is limited as a reliever. Gerardo Parra is long on tools and short on performance. It’s a good thing the D’Backs have a lot of young talent in the majors, because they aren’t likely to get a big infusion of help from the farm system over the next few years.
Overall: B
The D’Backs don’t have any glaring weaknesses – the ownership isn’t great but gives them just enough to contend. The front office makes mistakes, but not enough to nullify the talent on the roster. They are a few players short of a championship club, but the core of their roster isn’t going anywhere. The minor league system isn’t good, but Jarrod Parker gives them at least one impact talent to hang their hope on. Being strongish across the board, with potentially the best group of young talent in the National League, is good enough to get them in the top 10.
Today, we launch the top ten, heading towards the top spot and closing out this series. All of the teams that we discuss this week are legitimate contenders for both this year and the future, and these are the organizations that the rest of baseball is chasing.
Rankings So Far
#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
Ownership: A
Since Arte Moreno bought the Angels, he has pushed the team’s payroll over $100 million and left it there, allowing the team to have significant funds to add big ticket players to the roster. Moreno wants to win, and he’s willing to put up more than enough money to do so. However, he doesn’t involve himself in baseball decisions, and plays the role of owner very well. It’s hard to ask for much more than what Moreno gives the Angels.
Front Office: B-
The transition from Bill Stoneman to Tony Reagins was fairly smooth, as the Angels continue to push forward their specific brand of baseball. They like position players with speed, hitters who make contact, starting pitchers who throw strikes, and a bullpen full of power arms. The names change, but these qualities are always associated with the Angels roster. The problem has been, however, that this speed and contact offense that Mike Scioscia prefers often lacks power and patience, and limits the amount of runs the Angels can score in a season. The Angels do a pretty good job of evaluating talent, but the “Angel Way” of playing baseball limits their options, and they’ll have to be willing to make more adjustments as they did with signing Bobby Abreu this winter. The team scouts well, but they will eventually have to integrate some new thinking into the front office.
Major League Talent: B-
Mike Napoli is dealing with health issues, and Jeff Mathis isn’t an adequate fill-in. Their two best hitters are aging fairly quickly, and both are free agents at the end of the year, as is the team’s best starting pitcher. The core of the team that’s in place for the future is filled with talented question marks, and while the Angels should contend in 2009 with what they have, they’ll likely have a very different look in 2010, and it’s not certain that they’ll have enough to hold off the rest of the teams in their division. They are quite likely to add another big name piece this summer, though – I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Jake Peavy ended the year as an Angel.
Minor League Talent: C+
While there isn’t a sure thing prospect in the bunch, there are enough intriguing talents that the team should get some quality just out of the sheer quantity of prospects that they’ve assembled. If Nick Adenhart busts, Jordan Walden could break through as the team’s next good young starter. Or maybe Trevor Reckling. Or Sean O’Sullivan. If Hang Conger doesn’t hit, Mark Trumbo might. Peter Bourjos gives them a potential premium defender to add to an outfield that could certainly use one. All of these guys come with significant risk, but also some legitimate upside, and the Angels should get some future help from this farm system, even without an obvious top prospect in place.
Overall: B
Strong ownership supported by big market revenues gives the team all kinds of wiggle room, and allows them to overcome mistakes like the Gary Matthews Jr signing. The front office isn’t the best in baseball, but they scout well enough to develop talent internally, and that home grown core gives them the ability to spend a lot of money on established veterans, who are usually fairly easy to identify as good talents. The team’s stars are getting older, though, and they’re going to have to figure out how to replace the production they’ve gotten used to seeing from Vladimir Guerrero, as he heads into his decline. With their three division partners all pushing their organizations in the right direction, the Angels are going to have to make a lot of good decisions in the next 12 months to keep their hold on the top of the AL West.
I’ve been talking about pitches, pitching patterns, and pitch usage a lot lately. Whether it be through PitchFx charts, simply sharing observations, or talking about a pitcher who needs an additional pitch. Finally, I broke down and gathered the data needed to see whether having a surplus of pitches or only a couple mattered to performance.
Most people have the idea that quality matters more than quantity in mind. I know I did. In fact, while running the query (last three years, at least 5% usage of the pitch, at least 150 innings) only one pitcher recorded more than five pitches and that was Ryan Franklin with six. As you’ll see, Ryan Franklin is not a particularly good pitcher. Franklin is passable, but I think you would expect more from someone who has a constant advantage in game theory. Now, it is possible that Franklin falls into patterns, tips his pitches, or simply throws hittable garbage, I’ll leave that up to you to figure out, my only interest is the amount of pitches used modestly and whether it makes for better pitchers.
We begin today with that query I mentioned earlier. No restriction on amount of games started and only 150 innings over the last three years; meaning relievers like Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, and Jonathan Papelbon were eligible to make the cut. Let’s get to the data, shall we?
Franklin was the only pitcher with six pitches and 28 pitchers had five pitches qualify. Tradition has most starters throwing 3-4 pitches and most relievers having one or two. Tradition holds true here. 119 pitchers had four pitches qualify, 134 had three, and 39 had two. Franklin failed to make a start over the last three years meanwhile pitchers with 5 pitches saw 64% of their games come as starters, 60.2% for four pitch qualifiers, 32.2% for three pitches, and 11.7% for two pitches.
Let’s look at how they actually performed:
Are the relievers skewing the two and three pitch numbers? Tomorrow we’ll separate the starters from the pack and see if that’s the case.