This is probably deserving of a longer post, but I wanted to spend a few minutes to talk about the ethics of service time manipulation. Baltimore and Tampa Bay have both elected to send two of their best players to Triple-A to begin the season, opting to go with a sub-optimal roster for the beginning of 2009 in order to create a long term financial advantage by delaying the free agency for Matt Wieters and David Price.

From an organizational standpoint, there are all kinds of reasons why it makes sense. The value of having an extra year of club control over one of the elite talents in the game is tremendous, and far outweighs the incremental gains the team would get from having their best line-up on the field for the first six weeks of 2009. From a cost/benefit perspective, trading six weeks of Price or Wieters’ production in 2009 for an entire season of their production in 2015, it’s an easy call.

As fans, we usually want the organizations we root for to do whatever they can to better the organization, both short term and long term. In most cases, the fans are in total agreement with the organization and are willing to trade the benefit of seeing a player like Wieters or Price for six weeks now to get an extra year of their abilities down the line.

However, I have to wonder how we would feel if we were in the players shoes. There is no question that Wieters is the best catcher in the Orioles organization right now. No one would argue otherwise. He has done everything necessary to establish himself as the guy who can offer the most at his position, but he’ll begin the season in the International League so that the Orioles can deflate his future earnings. If this happened to you at your job, wouldn’t you be outraged? Can you imagine your boss looking you in the eye and telling you that he’s purposely giving you an undeserved negative performance review so that the company won’t give you the raise you’ve earned?

I mean, really, wouldn’t most of us want to take a swing at that guy? Somehow, though, because Wieters and Price are operating at a higher pay grade, they’re supposed to be okay with it. Why?

I’m not blaming the teams. They really are making the best decision for their own franchise, given the current rules. But isn’t it time to admit that these rules suck? Thanks to how service time and salaries are correlated, MLB is actively encouraging some teams to put an inferior product on the field to start the year. Isn’t that fantastic?

There are a lot of things in baseball that just don’t live up to common sense, unfortunately. Having rules that discourage teams from putting their best players on the field should be near the top of the list of things to get fixed.

Once David Price officially graduates to the Majors, the club will need another player to step up to be the No. 1 prospect, as the organization has a lot of interesting sleepers but is short on surefire impact talent. The pitching depth is much deeper than the hitting.

AAA/AA
David Price is up there with Baltimore’s Matt Wieters for the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. If not for an eyebrow-raising decision to have Price begin the season in the minors, he would probably have had a great shot at winning the Rookie of the Year award. The choice could also come back to haunt the club if it struggles early on and loses too much ground to Boston and/or New York. Price pitched at four levels in the minors in 2008 and allowed 92 hits in 113 cumulative innings.

Jeff Niemann, a former No. 1 draft pick, is out of options so he’ll open the year with the Rays – or be traded. The right-hander has immense talent but he struggles with his control and command. With Price pitching in the minors, Niemann’s biggest competition for the No. 5 spot in the rotation is Jason Hammel. Niemann’s best role may be as a closer. At Triple-A in 2008, he allowed 101 hits in 133 innings and posted rates of 3.38 BB/9 and 8.66 K/9.

Wade Davis (third round) and Jacob McGee (fifth) were both drafted out of high school in 2004 and moved up through the minors together. McGee, though, had his ascent derailed by Tommy John surgery in mid-2007. He won’t pitch again until at least July. A healthy Davis made 19 starts in Double-A and then moved up to Triple-A where he allowed just 39 hits in 53 innings. However, he struggled with his control and saw his rates rise from 3.51 in Double-A to 4.08 BB/9. Davis could be ready for the MLB rotation by mid-2009.

Jeremy Hellickson, who will turn 22 in the first month of the season, split 2008 between High-A and Double-A. He posted a 2.00 ERA (2.57 FIP) in 14 starts before moving up to Double-A, where he allowed 84 hits in 75.1 innings. Despite being too hittable at the senior level, Hellickson showed good control and posted rates of 1.79 BB/9 and 9.44 K/9. He works in the low-90s with his fastball but can touch 95 mph. The right-hander also has a solid curveball and change-up.

Reid Brignac was moving up through the minors at a pretty good clip before hitting the wall in Triple-A in 2008. The shortstop prospect managed a line of just .250/.299/.412 and needs to show that he can hit for average above A-ball after batting just .260 in Double-A in 2007. His willingness to take a walk has also dried up. His home run total dropped from 17 in 2007 to nine last year, and his steals went from 15 to five.

A+/A
Matt Moore opened some eyes in his 2007 debut and he continued to impressive in 2008 during a repeat performance in rookie ball. He posted a 1.64 FIP with 30 hits allowed in 54.1 innings. Moore also showed excellent rates with 3.15 BB/9 and 12.75 K/9. He should get a chance to open 2009 in A-ball. The southpaw’s repertoire includes an 89-95 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

Right-hander Nick Barnese should join together with Moore to lead the A-ball rotation in 2009. Last season, in short-season ball, he allowed 52 hits in 66 innings of work. Barnese, 20, also posted rates of 3.27 BB/9 and 11.45 K/9. He has an 88-93 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

Desmond Jennings had a breakout season in 2007 only to miss most of last year due to injury. The outfielder hit .259/.360/.412 in just 85 High-A at-bats, but he is expected to be 100% healthy in 2009 when he repeats the level. The outfield depth in Tampa Bay is not nearly as deep as it once was, so the athletic Jennings could make an impact in the Majors as soon as 2010.

SS/R
Kyle Lobstein, a high school left-handed pitcher, was taken with the first pick of the second round in the 2008 draft. He was swayed away from signing with his hometown college of Arizona with an above-slot contract. He signed too late to play in 2008 and should begin 2009 in extended spring training before heading to rookie ball in June.

Tim Beckham’s prospect status is built very much on reputation at this point, as he has only been on the field for half a season. He was drafted first overall in the 2008 draft out of a Georgia high school and the shortstop signed much quicker than most first round draft picks. Beckham hit .243/.297/.345 with two homers and five stolen bases in 177 rookie at-bats. He also received a two-game promotion to short-season ball and could open 2009 in A-ball with a strong spring.

Up Next: The Washington Nationals

On Tuesday, the Colorado Rockies announced that they were going to choose talent over whatever it was that they thought Scott Podsednik offered them, and as a result, they handed their starting backup center field job to 23-year-old Dexter Fowler. After a breakthrough performance in Double-A last year, he continued to open eyes in spring training, and the Rockies correctly decided that he’s already one of the best outfielders in the organization.

However, Fowler has the kind of skillset that often goes unappreciated. He’s got the power and speed of a leadoff hitter, but he strikes out a fair amount and isn’t a prolific base stealer, so he’s unlikely to post gaudy numbers in any one area. With his contact issues, he probably won’t hit .300. He hits the ball on the ground a lot, so double digit home runs are also unlikely. And, with a career stolen base success rate of just 66% in the minor leagues, he probably won’t swipe 40+ bases this year. For fans who look for big numbers in a given category, Fowler is likely to disappoint.

However, for Rockies fans who simply want to win baseball games, Fowler offers a broad base of skills that will allow him to help Colorado in various ways. His offense isn’t going to be great until he cuts down on the strikeouts, but as a guy who can play center field, he doesn’t have to hit like Matt Holliday to be productive.

CHONE projects his bat to be worth -15 runs over a 150 game season – for a rookie center fielder with range, that’s actually not bad. Assuming he plays average or better defense and stays relatively healthy the Rockies find a way to get him in the line-up, Fowler projects to be something like a +1 to +2 win player as a 23-year-old. Guys who can step in and provide average-ish production while still adjusting to the majors often become stars, and Fowler has a bright future ahead of him.

Don’t count on huge numbers from him this year, but the Rockies made the right call going have depth with Fowler in center field, and his talent will pay off for years to come.

My mistake on the original story, which had Fowler starting in CF.

Busy few weeks for the Florida Marlins on and off the field. Yesterday, the Fish completed two trades and rumor has it they could be interested in making another.

First up, trading a player to be named later to the Kansas City Royals for Ross Gload.

That player to be named later better not be anyone worthwhile. Gload’s dexterity likely has as much to do with this acquisition as anything. The Marlins already have Jorge Cantu and Wes Helms on the roster – not to mention Gaby Sanchez lurking – but all of them are right-handed corner infield types. Gload is essentially restricted to first base, and happens to sign documents using his left hand. Over the last three years, Gload has been a touch below average offensively and about average defensively. For a first baseman who has played, but probably shouldn’t play the outfield, that’s not good. Particularly curious are Gload’s splits, which don’t indicate the traditional platoon split that you would expect from a marginal first baseman. If everything goes right, Gload can be an average player off the bench; otherwise, this seems like an insignificant move, and one that raises some eyebrows given the release of a similar player in Dallas McPherson.

Kudos to Dayton Moore for finally getting rid of Gload, whether the PTBNL is a worthwhile asset or not is irrelevant, the dump is worth it.

The Marlins followed that up by dealing shortstop Robert Andino to the Baltimore Orioles for pitcher Hayden Penn.

It seems like just yesterday Penn was being talked about part of a potential A.J. Burnett deal. Fittingly, Penn finally lands with the Marlins, but well after the fact. Penn’s path to the majors has been largely derailed thanks to command issues. Penn throws a fastball that sits in the low-90s, a curve, and a change, and could find work in the Marlins bullpen. CHONE and ZiPS are unkind in their predictions, but the next time Penn has major league success will be the first time.

Andino is out of options and the Marlins have two of the better middle infielders around. Gone are the days of Alex Cintron, Luis Hernandez, Juan Castro, Brandon Fahey, and Freddie Bynum. Andy MacPhail has turned that horrendous group into Cesar Izturis and Andino.

The Marlins are also reportedly interested in Frank Catalanotto, who would act as a reserve outfielder. Catalanotto was released last night.

The last few days have been particularly amusing in the sense that teams are getting rid of their sunk costs, players who instantly become linked to several other teams upon being released. First came Gary Sheffield, released by the Tigers despite being owed a hefty $14 mil. The Phillies followed by releasing Geoff Jenkins, seemingly in an attempt to replace him with Sheffield.

Then reports circulated that both Jenkins and Sheffield had made their way onto the Marlins radar. And today we learn that Sheffield has interest from three teams, of which two are the Reds and Phillies. But certain plans may have been wrenched today when it became evident that Andruw Jones is going to make the Rangers’ final roster.

By releasing Frank Catalanotto, the Rangers seem to be doing whatever they can to ensure that Jones breaks camp with the team. His story is too recent to be forgotten, so forgive me for not waxing poetic on the situation, but the Reds and Phillies were certainly banking on his being demoted or released. Both teams seem to be searching for a righty bench batter, and while Dave covered why Sheffield would not fit in with the Phillies current roster, Jones would have been a legitimate defensive replacement for the major league minimum capable of pinch-hitting and filling in when the inevitable injury bug strikes Shane Victorino or Jayson Werth.

Speaking of Catalanotto, guess who has interest? That’s right, the Florida Marlins, who recently released Dallas McPhereson, acquired Ross Gload from the Royals, and traded Robert Andino to the Orioles for Hayden Penn, all the while being linked to both Jenkins and Sheffield. The Marlins may have more interest in Catalanotto than either of Jenkins and Sheffield given his utility status, which would normally create a bidding war for the man with 499 dingers, but since anything above the minimum would only subtract from the amount owed by the Tigers, no such war will surface.

Thankfully, with the Phillies and Braves kicking off the season in just a couple of days the wacky offseason we have just experienced will come to a close, but now I’m curious to see who gets released each day and where they are immediately linked to playing. The watch is on for Jenkins, Sheffield, Catalanotto and McPhereson, as Jones looks poised to make the Rangers club.

Help me -> help everyone -> help you.

http://www.tangotiger.net/survey/

Earlier this week I criticized Gary Matthews Jr. for his not so subtly expressed distaste at anything other than a starting job in the outfield. Matthews had always been an average or worse hitter whose value was largely derived from glovework, but benefited from telltale luck-based indicators in 2006 with the bat, leading to what appeared to be a breakout season. The Angels rewarded him with a 5 yr/$50 mil contract and proceeded to witness Matthews fall off a cliff not only with the bat but also with the glove, becoming one of the worst players in the league last season.

With Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu, and Juan Rivera, Matthews is the odd man out and has been very verbal recently about how the situation merits immediate rectification. Teammate Hunter actually keeps his own blog titled Torii’s Storiis and openly discussed his feelings over the Matthews situation. While I agree with much of what Hunter said, I am still adamant that Matthews has been handling this situation about as poorly as one can handle a situation.

Hunter’s main claim is that, despite the money, Matthews is an athlete and athletes are trained to be intensely competitive. Reading between the lines I gleaned that the defense suggests Matthews cannot see the forest from the trees and still considers himself an immensely productive player.

It also reminded me of a passage from Will Leitch’s book, God Save the Fan in which he recalled a 2-on-2 football game he participated in against Kordell Stewart and Andre Rison. Though Leitch and his partner were clearly amateurs with no shot, Stewart and Rison still proceeded to go all out and pull sneaky athletic tricks in the game. Leitch then remarked about how sad it was that these guys had been trained to be competitive like pitbulls, an aspect of their personality that could never be turned off.

Hunter then makes a very interesting point about Matthews’ age: at 34, Gary isn’t exactly a young guy, but he isn’t exactly an ancient veteran. Hunter feels that the older veterans make the best bench players because they fully understand their capabilities and limitations, while the younger guys are more prone to try and win at all costs. Matthews falls in between these two areas.

I completely grasp Hunter’s take on his teammate but that does not change the fact that Gary Matthews Jr. lacks the requisite talent to be a starting outfielder in the major leagues. His one calling card, defense, has fallen by the wayside over the last two years which, when coupled with average or worse offense makes him more of a liability than an asset. He could still have value as a potential defensive replacement in a limited sample size of innings or as a pinch-hitter/runner, but his fee is too exorbitant for such a role unless the Angels release the sunk cost and another team can sign him for the minimum.

Athletes are definitely human, but they do possess robotic aspects, primarily the need to compete at all costs. Torii Hunter makes some very valid points about Gary Matthews Jr. and his current mindset but none takes away what has been said or justifies the hullabaloo occurring as we speak. Not playing Matthews is a no-brainer situation for the Angels, but perhaps they instilled undeserved confidence in Matthews by issuing that dreadful contract. Luckily, it seems they are getting things right this time around.

From the most recent Sports Illustrated: Baseball’s Next Top Models

This winter Lichtman, who left the Cardinals after the 2005 season, made UZR—considered by many to be the most comprehensive defensive metric out there—available to the public on the website FanGraphs, which will update player stats weekly during the season. “The funny thing is, all this information is now available free for anyone to see, so there’s really no reason for teams to do their own thing,” says Lichtman. “Yet it’s clear that half to three quarters of the teams still have no clue how to evaluate defense on that level and how to interpret that into a player’s overall value.”

It’s nice to see UZR and the others becoming more mainstream!

The Red Sox organization has a funny system… There are a number of top prospects in Double-A and Triple-A, as well as some very interesting names in short-season ball and the rookie league. The two A-ball teams, though, don’t have a whole lot of obvious talent.

AAA/AA
If it were not for the Red Sox’ strong starting-pitcher depth, Michael Bowden would probably be opening the year in the Major Leagues. The added time in Triple-A should not hurt him though, considering he spent just 40 innings there last year (as well as five in the Majors). The right-hander spent most of the year in Double-A, where he allowed 72 hits in 104.1 innings of work and posted rates of 2.07 BB/9 and 8.71 K/9. Bowden is not the type of pitcher who will put up a lot of flashy strikeout numbers but he knows how to pitch and should be a reliable No. 3 starter in the Majors. His repertoire includes an 88-93 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

The story of Daniel Bard may be one of the reasons why the Red Sox organization is no longer associated with High-A ball Lancaster, which is an extreme hitter’s park. Bard’s entire 2007 season was ruined after he was hit around while playing for the minor league club and posted a 10.17 ERA. Moved to the bullpen in 2008 and kept clear of Lancaster, he thrived. Bard, 23, began the year in A-ball and allowed just 12 hits in 28 innings of work with a strikeout rate of 13.82 K/9. The organization then jumped him over High-A ball and challenged him in Double-A, where he allowed 30 hits in 49.2 innings with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. Bard’s control still needs a lot of work and he gets away with throwing one pitch most of the time: a dominating fastball that can hit triple-digits. He also has a slider.

Lars Anderson is the club’s top prospect and he could be knocking on the big-league door by mid-2009. The former 18th-round pick out of high school was stolen by the Red Sox after he was viewed as a first- or second-round talent but fell due to signability concerns. The 21-year-old first baseman has had no trouble adjusting to pro ball with a career line of .304/.404/.480 in two years. Last season, he split the year between High-A and Double-A. At the higher of the two levels, Anderson hit .316/.436/.526 with five home runs in 133 at-bats. He had an impressive walk rate of 17.9 BB%, but struck out at a rate of 32.3 K%. He’ll likely open 2009 back in Double-A.

Josh Reddick’s results are catching up to his potential and athletic ability. The 22-year-old left fielder played at three levels in 2008 and topped out in Double-A, where he struggled by hitting just .214 in 117 at-bats. He spent most of the season in High-A ball where he hit .343/.375/.593 with 17 homers and nine stolen bases in 312 at-bats. In total, Reddick hit 23 homers and stole 14 bases. He’ll likely return to Double-A in 2009 where he’ll attempt to curb his aggressive nature at the plate, which leads to low walk totals. On the plus side, he keeps the strikeouts down because he makes good, consistent contact. Defensively, he has a canon for an arm, which makes right field his best position.

There is not a whole lot known about Junichi Tazawa and what he’ll bring to the table in 2009. The Japanese amateur import will likely start his pro career in Double-A after a solid showing in spring training. He allowed just five hits and one walk in nine innings, while striking out 10. His repertoire includes an 88-93 mph fastball, plus splitter, slider and curveball.

A+/A
The Red Sox system has produced a number of key middle infield prospects in recent years (Hanley Ramirez, anyone?) and Yamaico Navarro is one more name to remember. The 21-year-old Dominican had a breakthrough 2008 season and he split the year between two A-ball affiliates. His numbers in Lancaster were helped by the good hitting environment and he hit .348/.393/.508 with four home runs as well as rates of 6.2 BB% and 16.6 K% in 181 at-bats. Navarro is also a good fielder and should have no problem staying at shortstop.

SS/R
Stolmy Pimentel was considered advanced enough by the Sox to go directly to short-season ball in his North American debut in 2008. He had a solid season by allowing 51 hits in 63 innings of work. He also posted rates of 2.43 BB/9 and 8.71 K/9. Home runs were a bit of a problem and he allowed seven of them (1.00 HR/9). The right-hander has an 88-92 mph fastball, plus change-up and developing curveball. Pimentel is just 19 years old.

Casey Kelly was a first-round draft pick in 2008 out of a Florida high school. The two-way player (SS and RHP) hit .173/.229/.255 in 98 rookie ball at-bats and .344 in 32 short-season at-bats in his debut. Kelly did not pitch last year but he will do both in 2009 as a compromise. Kelly prefers to play the field, while the organization likes his power arm. His repertoire includes an 87-91 mph fastball, curveball and developing change-up. He would likely move quicker through the system if he committed to playing just one position but his story will be an interesting one to read about in 2009.

Michael Almanzar, like Kelly, is the son of a former Major League Baseball player. He was signed out of the Dominican Republic to a huge contract and had a nice North American debut as a 17 year old. He hit .348/.414/.472 with one home runs in 89 rookie ball at-bats. Obviously too advanced for the league, Almanzar moved up to A-ball where he hit just .207/.238/.314 in 140 at-bats. The third baseman should return to A-ball in 2009 and will probably spend the entire season there.

Like Almanzar, Derrik Gibson had no problems hitting rookie-ball pitchers in 2008. He batted .309/.411/.394 with 14 steals in 94 at-bats. Moved up to short-season ball, the right-handed hitting shortstop hit just .086 in 35 at-bats. The most impressive part about the 19 year old is that he embraces the walk as a means of getting on base to utilize his plus-plus speed. He posted a walk rate of 13.0 BB% in rookie ball.

Ryan Westmoreland did not sign in time to make his pro debut during the regular season in 2008. He signed a seven-figure contract as a fifth-round draft pick out of high school, who had borderline first-round talent but a strong commitment to college. The 18-year-old prospect has an outside shot of beginning the year in A-ball.

Up Next: The Tampa Bay Rays

Yesterday, the Detroit Tigers announced that 20-year-old Rick Porcello had won a spot in their starting rotation. He will open the season with the Tigers despite having never pitched above Single-A, as Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland are betting on talent being more important than experience.

Is Porcello ready to make a three level jump and hold his own in the big leagues before he’s legally allowed to drink? There are reasons to think so.

When most people look at his 2008 line, the 5.18 K/9 jumps out – that’s a remarkably low strikeout rate for a guy with top notch stuff in the minor leagues. Most elite pitching prospects strike out more than a batter per inning, especially in the lower levels. Porcello simply wasn’t missing bats all that often, and that is seen as a red flag by many.

However, there can be different ways of dominating minor league hitters, and while Porcello wasn’t racking up the strikeouts, he was among the most dominating groundball pitchers in the minors. 65% of his balls in play were hit on the ground, easily leading the league. Porcello got a ton of ground balls while also avoiding walks, posting a very good 2.38 BB/9. He showed excellent command of his sinker, which allowed him to succeed without racking up a lot of strikeouts.

The combination of no walks and lots of ground balls is a recipe for success in the majors. It might not be as flashy as racking up huge strikeout totals, but it’s still a good combination. If Porcello can continue to command his sinker, he has the tools to pitch in the major leagues right now. Chris Volstad had a very successful run last summer with a similar skillset, and Porcello has better stuff than Volstad.

It’s certainly possible that Porcello will struggle, as a lot of 20-year-old pitchers do when thrust into the majors. However, don’t make the mistake of assuming that just because he didn’t rack up a lot of strikeouts in the Florida State League, he doesn’t have what it takes to succeed in the majors. Strikeouts aren’t the only way a pitcher can dominate. Porcello has the strikes and ground balls skillset, and that combination works in the big leagues.