Generally speaking, the small samples sizes of playing time makes it particularly difficult to track trends in the stat-lines of relievers over a few seasons. After all, how do we know the numbers are not going through anything more than random fluctuations? When a slew of metrics tend to flock in the same direction over a predetermined period of time, it stands to reason that the pitcher has made significant strides in his abilities. One would think that such an improvement might add the pitcher to the list of elite relievers, but some are occasionally overlooked in spite of their success due to a lack of a reputation.

In 2005, Chad Qualls was a very reliable reliever for the Houston Astros, posting a solid 3.28 ERA and 3.75 FIP in 79.2 innings. His efforts were largely overshadowed by the three headed monster that was Roger Clemens–Roy Oswalt–Andy Pettitte and a fantastic season from Brad Lidge. The next season, his K/9 fell from 6.78 to 5.68 with a rise in BB/9 from 2.60 to 2.84. Qualls allowed more homers as well, increasing his ERA to 3.76 and his FIP to 4.50. Despite logging nine more frames, Qualls lost a half of a win, dropping from 0.7 to 0.2 wins above replacement.

After the disappointing 2006 campaign, Qualls reverted to previously established norms with his pitch selection and threw his fastball 61 percent of the time; only throwing fastballs and sliders, Qualls had jumped to 68 percent with the heater in the year before. Both the fastball and slider were delivered at slightly greater velocities as well, and Qualls looked like a completely different pitcher.

His strikeout rate rose substantially from 5.68 to 8.49 and he cut back on walks as well. Qualls increased his O-Swing from 26% to 35% while reducing contact made on these pitches from 48% to 40%. Hitters were fooled by his pitches and could not muster as much contact as they had done before. Following a trade to the Diamondbacks for Jose Valverde before the 2008 campaign, Qualls continued the late inning dominance, putting up a 2.81 ERA and 2.77 FIP in 73.2 innings. His strikeout rate again jumped, this time to 8.67, but more significantly, Qualls reduced his BB/9 from 2.72 to 2.20.

Combined with a drastic dropoffs in HR/9 from 1.09 to 0.49, Qualls added two whole wins to the Diamondbacks, a mark only the elite relievers tend to hover around. This season, Qualls has again exhibited improvements in his controllable skills, jumping to a 9.86 K/9 and shaving more walks to the tune of a 1.71 BB/9. Though he still throws nothing more than a fastball and slider, and his fastball has been delivered much more frequently lately, Qualls boasts a 2.29 FIP through 21 innings. At 0.7 wins already, he is well on pace to repeat or surpass last season’s career bests.

Much of his success is derived from keeping the ball on the ground, evident in his career groundball rate of 59 percent. This season, however, Qualls has allowed 56 balls to be put in play and an astounding 73.2 percent (41 total) have been worm-beaters. He holds a substantial league lead in that department, but would fall to 35th since 1954 if the rate can be sustained. The highest groundball rate for a pitcher with at least 35 games pitched belongs to Chad Bradford, in 2001, when he induced 80.8% of his balls in play to be put on the ground.

ZiPS likes Qualls to regress in his controllable skills as the season bears on, but I would also tend to think his high BABIP, currently inflating his ERA, will also regress. These regressions might not cancel each other out, but given his recent track record of improvements, the evidence suggests that Qualls would gravitate more closely to the 2.29 FIP than to the 3.43 ERA. Regardless, Qualls has turned himself into a high strikeout, low walk, groundball pitcher and is further cementing himself as an elite reliever in the making, if not one already. The reputation isn’t there yet but the numbers certainly suggest that the Diamondbacks have at least one consistent stud in the bullpen.

The Seattle Mariners never seemed a likely team to contend this season. They were coming off a 61-win season last year that was not even a success from a losing standpoint, as they blew a chance at the first overall draft pick in the final two games of the season. New M Jack Zduriencik spent the winter overhauling the team’s inept defense and bringing in as many low cost relievers and veteran hitters as he could find.

For a while, it worked. Racing out to a 15-10 start, the Mariners at one point stood atop the AL West by 3.5 games and had a PECOTA-predicted chance of postseason play over 40%, at the time, the highest in the AL West. Since that peak though, the Mariners’ bats have gone silent and the bullpen fell apart en route to a 6-16 stretch that left them seven games back of the Texas Rangers. Their latest two wins against Baltimore have the Mariners’ playoff odds back up to around 15%, but still it seems likely that they’ll be sellers before July is up.

Lucky for them, they have a lot to sell. In the rotation, Erik Bedard is the big candidate, but Jarrod Washburn and his 3.22 ERA (backed up by an improved 3.59 FIP) should also tempt a pitching-starved team. In the bullpen, David Aardsma’s eight saves and 2.13 ERA will also likely find a buyer. As far as the bats go, Endy Chavez can hold down center field and that coupled with his .283 batting average might have him heading out of town. Adrian Beltre is the obvious trade candidate, and he seems to be breaking out of his early season slump.

Another possible bat that could be dealt is Russell Branyan who, given his first chance to play regularly, has responded magnificently and would certainly garner some interest. The question then would be if Branyan and Zdurencik would have some loyalty to each other enough that Branyan sticks around in Seattle.

Either way, with a host of actual talent up for graps form July should they fall far enough back, plus picks 2, 27, 33 and 51 in the upcoming June draft, the Mariner farm system is about to get one giant boost upwards.

Gordon Beckham wasn’t among first five hitters taken in last June’s draft, but he will be one of the first five hitters from the 2008 draft to appear in the major leagues. Beckham will be promoted before tonight’s game, taking the place of Wilson Betemit. Off to an awful start, Betemit is set to be designated for assignment, some team looking for a utility infielder could take on Betemit. ZiPS projects his bat around league average for the rest of the season which is approximately one of the many things Betemit offers over, say, Angel Berroa.

As for Beckham, he has less than 200 plate appearances in the minors, but the White Sox are apparently satisfied with his polish. Last year, he hit .310/.365/.500 in 63 plate appearances in A-Ball and so far this year he hit an almost identical .299/.366/.497 at Double-A. He’s showcasing some good pop and plate discipline. Defensively it’s hard to tell how Beckham will perform. Some scouting reports indicate Beckham’s arm is only average and his small stature has a lot of people saying his ultimate destination is at second base.

The White Sox third basemen have compiled -8.8 UZR and -11 wRAA. That’s nearly two full wins shaved off the Sox’ total thanks to poor play at the hot corner. Beckham figures to be an immediate upgrade at the plate and in the field.

Only three and a half games separate Chicago from first place Detroit, yet in the tight American League Central, that margin is identical to the Sox’ distant to last place as well. We know Kenny Williams is one of the more aggressive personnel movers in the league, and despite his failed attempts at grabbing Jake Peavy, it’ll be interesting to see if he tries to acquire another starting pitcher or a new second baseman in the coming weeks.

This afternoon, we look at Antonio Bastardo’s major league debut. He wasn’t the only one making his first trip to a major league mound last night, though. Oakland debuted yet another young starter, giving a look to Vin Mazzaro, and like with Bastardo, the high level results were excellent – 6 1/3 shutout innings leading to his first major league win. However, let’s get beyond the results and look at how Mazzaro pitched using some graphs courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

In contrast to Bastardo, Mazzaro’s chart is a virtual rainbow, with the five different colors representing a varied arsenal of pitches that he threw at the White Sox. He threw both a two seam and four seam fastball, a change-up, a slider, and a curve. To better see the variation of movement and speed that he threw, here’s a graph of his pitches by vertical movement and speed.

On the right side, you see fastballs from 90-95 MPH and varying amounts of movement. Then, the slider and change-up are both in the 83-88 MPH range, while the curve hangs out from 79-82. He definitely gave the White Sox a lot of different looks.

However, unlike pitchers who do it intentionally, some of Mazzaro’s variation looks to be more fatigue than keeping hitters off balance. Check out his velocity timeline.

The fastball sat around 94 for the first 25 pitches before moving into the 92 range for the middle 50 and then dropping off to just over 90 for the final 25 pitches. So, it’d be a bit of an overstatement to say that Mazzaro effectively pitched 89-95 with his fastball. He was a power pitcher early, but that didn’t last too long.

If you go back and look at the strike zone plot, you’ll see that, like Bastardo, he wasn’t really attacking the lower part of the zone, nor was he throwing a ton of strikes. He did a good job of keeping his change-up down, but the fastballs are mostly middle-up, which is why he too gave up 10 fly balls last night. Now, Mazzaro’s shown some pretty significant groundball ability in the minors, so it’s likely that nerves just cost him some fastball command last night. His fastball definitely has more sink to it than Bastardo’s does, but his performance last night shows why command is so important – even with a diving fastball, if you leave it up in the zone, it’s going to get hit in the air.

Thankfully for Mazzaro, the White Sox can’t hit, and they really can’t hit right-handed pitching. So, despite issuing four walks and getting just a single strikeout, Mazzaro was able to keep the White Sox off the board by letting some meager hitters get themselves out. He showed a better variation of pitches than Bastardo did, but didn’t flash anything resembling an out pitch, which has been the knock against his prospect status at each step up the ladder.

At the end of the night, both rookies had to be thrilled to get victories in their first major league starts. Both of them, however, have significant adjustments to make if they’re going to continue to be successful in the major leagues.

With Jamie Moyer struggling and Chan Ho Park bombing out of the rotation early, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro made no secret of the fact that he was hunting for a pitcher on the trade market. When Brett Myers landed on the DL with what is likely to be season ending surgery on his hip, that need for help in the rotation only intensified. However, rising prospect Antonio Bastardo did his best to lay claim to one of the open spots last night, making his major league debut against San Diego.

The results were terrific – 6 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 5 strikeouts. The only run the Padres were able to muster was on an Adrian Gonzalez homer, and giving up a bomb to Gonzalez just puts Bastardo in the same company as everyone else in the National League this year.

However, if there’s one thing I’ve been advocating for years, it’s to judge by process, not results. How did Bastardo attack the Padres? Let’s take a look at the Pitch F/x data.

That’s the strike zone plot by pitch type, where the green squares are fastballs and the orange squares are sliders. I know, you have to look really hard to see the orange squares, because they’re covered by a sea of green. Of the 102 pitches Bastardo threw, 91 of them were fastballs – the other 11 were sliders. 41 of the 102 pitches were out of the strike zone, so even limiting his repertoire to two pitches, he still didn’t have great command.

Was he just overpowering hitters then? Here’s his velocity histogram.

The fastball was 89-95, but mostly clumped in the 91-93 range. That’s pretty decent velocity for a lefty, but those are four seam fastballs, and remember how many of them were up in the zone? Pounding the knees at 91-93 with a sinker is one thing, but Bastardo was going upstairs with a 91-93 MPH fastball, and that’s a recipe for a lot of fly balls. Not surprisingly, he gave up 10 fly balls to go along with three line drives and three ground balls. That’s what happens when you throw a lot of high strike zone four seamers.

The results? Terrific. The process? A little scary, honestly.

There are very few starting pitchers who can succeed consistently with just two pitches. The fastball-slider combination doesn’t give Bastardo an out pitch against right-handed batters, and not surprisingly, he’s posted significant splits in the minors. His 90% fastball philosophy won’t work, either – he’s either going to have to start mixing in some sliders or a change-up, or hitters are going to adjust very quickly. Toss in the fact that his approach last night would lead to an exceptional amount of fly balls, which is fine in Petco but less fine in Citizens Bank, and this is one of those classic starts where the results aren’t a great indicator of future events.

Despite a strong major league debut, Amaro should still be shopping for a starting pitcher if the Phillies want to try to repeat as champions.

This time last year, Daniel Schlereth was waiting to be drafted by a team. The University of Arizona reliever found himself chosen by the hometown Arizona Diamondbacks in the first round. A few days ago, Schlereth got the promotion from Double-A, only he didn’t report to Triple-A, instead he jumped into the majors. Two low leverage situations later, Schlereth was tossed into the fire last night.

Entering the 8th inning, the D-Backs held a 5-1 lead over the hosting Dodgers. Tony Pena took the mound, taking over for Dan Haren after seven solid innings. Matt Kemp greeted Pena with a single, but Pena would sit down a pair of former Astros as Brad Ausmus popped out and Mark Loretta struck out. Juan Pierre would single, placing runners on the corners for Rafael Furcal, who drew a walk. Orlando Hudson would walk as well. Making it a 5-2 D-Backs lead with two outs and the bases loaded. Rather than allow Pena to face James Loney, A.J. Hinch went to the youngster to defuse the threat.

Schlereth would allow a double to Loney, allowing the bases to clear and tie the game. Casey Blake would then single, giving the Dodgers their first lead of the night. The D-Backs would face Jonathan Broxton in the ninth inning and go down 1-2-3 with a pair of strikeouts and a groundout. It’s a bit hard to peg this one on Schlereth though. A glance at his strikezone plot from Brooks Baseball in the Blake at-bat shows that he was squeezed on two strike calls:

The top and bottom of strikezones change with different hitters. Blake’s top is at the 3.58 mark and extends to 1.7. The constant is the width of the zone – or at least should be. It’s hard to argue that pitches three and four aren’t strikes, yet that’s how the umpire called it. Nobody can say for sure how a strike call on pitch three sets up pitch four or five, or if there is a pitch five, but we know how the situation played out in reality, and I’m guessing the D-Backs and Schlereth would love to try their luck with a 1-2 count instead of a 2-1 count; especially given the .300 point swing in OPS between the counts.

Schlereth gets tagged with his first major league loss, and his first major league squeezing.

Last night, the Yankees completed their 18th consecutive game without a recorded error, breaking the Major League record which was set by the Boston Red Sox in 2006. Ramiro Pena was the last Yankee to get charged with an error when he misplayed a grounder at short stop against Toronto.

Errors and fielding percentage are loved by the mainstream media as the marks by which to measure team defense. It is not hard to understand why, given that on the surface they seem like such concrete and easily understood numbers while formulas like UZR, RZR, PMR and the likes are technical and confusing and because of that, many will see them as arbitrary. The problem with that line of thinking is that in actuality, errors are perhaps equally as confusing if you were being exposed to the game for the first time.

A right fielder catches a ball and throws to third attempting to nail a tagging runner. The throw is in every way perfect, but actually hits the runner and caroms away from the fielder. The scoring decision? Error on the right fielder almost to a fault. A shortstop makes a dazzling play in the hole and fires to first only to have the first baseman drop the ball. Error on the short stop. A left fielder loses the ball in the lights and it drops two feet away from him. No error there. And people complain that advanced fielding metrics are hard to understand?

Looking at the UZR numbers here on FanGraphs shows the Yankees at 14th in baseball with a 0.4 UZR/150, which isn’t much to write home about. They have taken a nice step forward from last year through, when they ranked 25th. The key driver is the increase in range among their fielders. It is, of course, no surprise considering the departures of noted slugs Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu and the importation of Mark Teixeira. All in all, errorless streaks are cool and make good talking points on TV, but don’t fall into the easy trap of evaluating a defense solely on that stat.

When a good player hangs up his cleats, be it of his own volition or a lack of offers, a good chunk the baseball analysis community tends to forget everything they know, gravitating towards the Hall of Fame extremes. Either a player is or isn’t worthy of Cooperstown enshrinement. It does not matter that the writers spent countless words evaluating the subtle nuances of his performance over the years or just how valuable he was to a team, because he either played well enough to get into the Hall of Fame, or he didn’t. I’m not sure how or when this all occurred, but it is quite bothersome considering that the players who do not get in are generally forgotten unless they stick around as coaches or took part in controversies, like those involving drugs.

Sure, I might see Evan Longoria’s torrid RBI pace (yes, I know RBIs are not that important, keep your saber-snark in your pants) to start the season and remark about the incredible offensive years from Juan Gonzalez at the turn of the century, but Juan-Gone is nothing but a footnote these days. Sadly, I fear that Jim Edmonds is in store for a similar fate, not based on his actual career accomplishments but rather the perception of what constitutes a Hall of Fame player.

Edmonds played for 16 seasons, and realistically should be playing right now given the outfield situation of at least the Braves, and likely a few others. Despite a reputation for being particularly fragile, he did manage to surpass the 400 PA plateau in all but three of his seasons. Since he became a full-time starter in 1995, and our win value data extends back to 2002, I am going to call upon Rally’s Baseball Projection site for the pertinent WAR numbers, an appropriate choice given that Edmonds began his career with the Angels. Early on, Edmonds developed a reputation for being a tremendous fielder, a reputation occasionally matched by the numbers; statistically he was not as solid as he looked but he sure was fun to watch.

The defensive reputation also overshadowed his offensive contributions. From 1995-98, his first four full seasons, Edmonds averaged 28 home runs, a .360 OBP and ranged from .371-.404 in wOBA. Fuse his offense and defense together with a mix of positional adjustment and value above replacement and Edmonds put up WAR marks of 6.2, 4.8, 4.1 and 4.2. He missed significant time in 1999 and found himself a member of the St. Louis Cardinals as the 2000 season rolled around. This would mark the beginning of Edmonds’ peak, when his 1995-98 maximum WAR of 6.2 would look a tad on the low side.

From 2000-05, Edmonds averaged 35 home runs, never hitting fewer than 28. His OBP never fell lower than .385 and his wOBA ranged from .386-.436. According to Baseball Projection, here were his win values: 6.6, 6.3, 7.2, 7.5, 8.4, 6.9. His career declined following the 2005 season thanks to the wear and tear of playing such a demanding position as well as simple aging. Even at 38 years old, though, he might serve as an upgrade over a few starting outfielders.

What doesn’t bode well for Edmonds’ chances of making the hall are his good but not insane numbers in a fantastic offensive era, his defensive reputation overshadowing the solid offense, and that the bulk of his peak not only coincided with Scott Rolen’s, but also with the emergence of Albert Pujols. In fact, speaking of Pujols, as it currently stands, Rally’s site has Edmonds at 67.9 wins and Pujols at 67.8. Sure, Edmonds began getting regular playing time six years prior to Pujols’ debut, but to do in essentially 13 seasons what Pujols has done in eight is still incredibly impressive.

He might get bonus points for appearing clean relative to others throughout the era, which is dumb, but I digress. Edmonds had a pretty fantastic career and deserves to be more than simply a guy on the cusp of the hall that gets forgotten within ten years of being left off the ballot. If I had a vote, he would certainly garner my support, as he deserves to be remembered. What say you?

After covering the AL this afternoon, let’s take a look at my NL All-Star ballot.

Catcher: Brian McCann (ATL), Jesus Flores (WAS), Yadier Molina (STL)

McCann and Flores are both performing well in limited action, while Molina is the best defensive catcher in baseball and a decent hitter to boot. Lots of competition here, as you could make a case for John Baker, Carlos Ruiz, or Russell Martin, but I’m happy with the three above.

First Base: Albert Pujols (STL), Adrian Gonzalez (SD)

I went with 12 pitchers to satisfy the one player per team approach, so I had to lose a position player somewhere, and first base is where I decided to skip out on the third guy. Joey Votto’s DL stint hurt him, and there’s not much separating the group that contains Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Nick Johnson, so I went with none of the above.

Second Base: Chase Utley (PHI), Orlando Hudson (LA), Brandon Phillips (CIN)

The first two here are easy as well, while Phillips edges out guys like Freddy Sanchez due to superior defense.

Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez (FLA), Yunel Escobar (ATL), Ryan Theriot (CHC)

The Braves should be thanking their lucky stars that the Padres didn’t take Escobar and run over the winter.

Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman (WAS), David Wright (NY), Chipper Jones (ATL)

Three pretty easy picks here. Sorry, Casey Blake fans.

Outfield: Raul Ibanez (PHI), Mike Cameron (MIL), Justin Upton (ARI), Matt Kemp (LA), Carlos Beltran (NY), Ryan Braun (MIL)

Starting Pitchers: Tim Lincecum (SF), Johan Santana (NY), Wandy Rodriguez (HOU), Josh Johnson (FLA), Chad Billingsley (LA), Dan Haren (ARI), Zach Duke (PIT), Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)

Relief Pitchers: Jonathan Broxton (LA), Heath Bell (SD), Ryan Madson (PHI), Rafael Soriano (ATL),

The Just Missed guy: Scott Hairston. Finally living up to some of the hype he got as a minor league hitter, and handling himself just fine in the outfield to boot. But the NL has a lot of really good outfielders, and Hairston just can’t quite live up to the bar set by the rest of those guys.

Final team tally:

Four: Atlanta, Los Angeles
Three: New York, Philadelphia
Two: San Diego, Washington, Arizona, Florida, Milwaukee, St. Louis
One: Chicago, Houston, Cincinnati, Colorado, Pittsburgh, San Francisco

2008 Draft Slot: 26th overall
Top Pick: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, University of Arizona
Best Pick: Daniel Schlereth
Keep an Eye On: Kevin Eichhorn, RHP, California high school (3rd round)
Notes: The club picked up some left-handed pitching depth when it selected collegians Daniel Schlereth and Wade Miley with its first two picks. Schlereth made his MLB debut last week after flying through the minors. Miley is pitching OK in the minors, although he’s moving much more slowly as he’s only in low-A ball. Prep right-hander Kevin Eichhorn was nabbed a couple rounds later and bought out of a trip to college. Eichhorn, whose father Mark pitched for 11 years in the Majors, is currently in extended spring training but he’ll be taking to the field in a couple of weeks when rookie ball begins. RHP Trevor Harden (14th round) was a great find – a Diamondback in the rough. He’s pitched at both low-A and high-A in 2009.

2007 Draft Slot: Ninth overall
Top Pick: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Indiana high school
Best Pick: Jarrod Parker
Worst Pick: Ed Easley, C, Mississippi State (supplemental 1st round)
Notes: The club had two supplemental first round picks in this draft and it once again focused on pitching, with mixed results. RHP Jarrod Parker is looking like a potential No. 2 starter. RHP Wes Roemer (50th overall) is getting back on track after hitting a wall in 2008. RHP Barry Enright (73rd) is in double-A but he’s been too hittable. At 23, RHP Sean Morgan (133rd) is still in low-A because of injuries but he’s having some success as a swing man. RHP Bryan Augenstein (7th round) was a nice find and he’s already contributed at the MLB level. Ed Easley entered pro ball with the reputation of being a solid offensive catcher whose glove was just good enough to remain behind the dish. Unfortunately, he hit .250 in his pro debut and has seen his batting average drop each season.

2006 Draft Slot: 11th overall
Top Pick: Max Scherzer, RHP, University of Missouri
Best Pick: Max Scherzer
Worst Pick: Brooks Brown, RHP, University of Georgia (Supplemental first round)
Notes: With all the talent in the world, Max Scherzer was expected to be one of the first picks in the draft but he slid because A) He was hurt sporadically throughout his junior year, B) He had a violent delivery, and C) He was represented by Scott Boras. Arizona, though, certainly does not regret the pick one bit. Prospects LHP Brett Anderson (2nd round) and RHP Dallas Buck (3rd round) were used in separate trades to obtain veteran talent. RHP Brooks Brown was also used in a trade, as he was sent to Detroit to secure the rights to 2008 Rule 5 draft pick James Skelton. Brown, a sinker/slider pitcher, has had trouble striking out batters in pro ball (3.15 K/9 in 2009) but he’s always posted good ERAs, for what it’s worth.

2009 Draft Slot: 16th and 17th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Pitching, college more often than prep
MLB Club Need: Starting pitching, First base
Organizational Need: First base, Second base, Third base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Shortstop
Notes: Now this is where things always get fun…. as long as the club does not go cheap. The Diamondbacks organization has back-to-back picks, with the 17th pick of the draft coming from the Dodgers after the division rival signed veteran second baseman Orlando Hudson. The club then has three supplemental first round picks for the losses of Hudson, RHP Juan Cruz (Kansas City), and RHP Brandon Lyon (Detroit). The club also has two second-round picks – its own and the Royals’ selection as a result of the club signing Cruz. So Arizona has seven of the first 60 picks.