Two Months In: Seattle Mariners

by
June 4, 2009

The Seattle Mariners never seemed a likely team to contend this season. They were coming off a 61-win season last year that was not even a success from a losing standpoint, as they blew a chance at the first overall draft pick in the final two games of the season. New M Jack Zduriencik spent the winter overhauling the team’s inept defense and bringing in as many low cost relievers and veteran hitters as he could find.

For a while, it worked. Racing out to a 15-10 start, the Mariners at one point stood atop the AL West by 3.5 games and had a PECOTA-predicted chance of postseason play over 40%, at the time, the highest in the AL West. Since that peak though, the Mariners’ bats have gone silent and the bullpen fell apart en route to a 6-16 stretch that left them seven games back of the Texas Rangers. Their latest two wins against Baltimore have the Mariners’ playoff odds back up to around 15%, but still it seems likely that they’ll be sellers before July is up.

Lucky for them, they have a lot to sell. In the rotation, Erik Bedard is the big candidate, but Jarrod Washburn and his 3.22 ERA (backed up by an improved 3.59 FIP) should also tempt a pitching-starved team. In the bullpen, David Aardsma’s eight saves and 2.13 ERA will also likely find a buyer. As far as the bats go, Endy Chavez can hold down center field and that coupled with his .283 batting average might have him heading out of town. Adrian Beltre is the obvious trade candidate, and he seems to be breaking out of his early season slump.

Another possible bat that could be dealt is Russell Branyan who, given his first chance to play regularly, has responded magnificently and would certainly garner some interest. The question then would be if Branyan and Zdurencik would have some loyalty to each other enough that Branyan sticks around in Seattle.

Either way, with a host of actual talent up for graps form July should they fall far enough back, plus picks 2, 27, 33 and 51 in the upcoming June draft, the Mariner farm system is about to get one giant boost upwards.





 

Matthew Carruth is a software engineer who has been fascinated with baseball statistics since age five. When not dissecting baseball, he is watching hockey or playing soccer.

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Chomps McGee
14 years ago

Besides Bedard, I think that the most attractive piece is Branyan. After getting a vow of confidence from management that he could finally have a shot at 450+ PAs he has been crushing pitches since they opened up in spring. Having a .400+ OBP is also very enticing to go along with that power. Naturally, he should regress to the mean as the season progresses, however, he is picking a great time (for Mariner fans) to breakout.

If Bedard remains healthy (knock on some blessed wood) he should bring back a premier prospect and a throw-in. Branyan is the only other player who may bring a solid upside player in return. The M’s will be glad someone will take Washburn off the books and shouldn’t expect (or ask) for much in return. Aardsma and Chavez would only bring marginal prospects or retreads in return.

Here’s hoping to Mariners continued success. If not, let’s get the pieces needed to bring a perennial winner to Seattle.

2
TheBiz
14 years ago
Reply to  Chomps McGee

Washburn’s in the final year of his contract so I doubt dumping his remaining salary is a high priority for the M’s. Who knew Lincoln and Armstrong would get it right on Washburn by refusing to dump his contract last year for nothing. We might actually get something interesting for him.

Yeah, let that one sink in for a second.

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Chomps McGee
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

His current performance is cute, but baseball is still a business. Anytime a company can dump an (overall) underachieving employee who has a ridiculous salary, they call it addition by subtraction. Another rotation spot for Vargas/Jak/Olson to decide through performance.

Don’t kid yourself, the M’s want to move Wash’s contract, even if they have to eat some of his remaining salary. Business is business, especially when you aren’t in contention for a World Series.

And if you really think they’ll get something in return for him, I want whatever you are smoking. Seriously, pass it over here. I got a long day ahead of me. If they somehow finagle a Gatorade machine that dispenses Fierce Grape, I’d call that a huge victory for the Mariners. On the cusp of “greatest M’s trade ever”.

1
Ralph Malph
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

They actually could have gotten something interesting for Washburn last year but Lincoln and Armstrong vetoed it. Now not so much.

They definitely could have gotten something interesting with the $9.85 million they’re paying Washburn this year.

0
Teej
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

They actually could have gotten something interesting for Washburn last year but Lincoln and Armstrong vetoed it.

If I recall correctly, the M’s wouldn’t have gotten anything of value in return. It would have been a salary dump.

-1
Chomps McGee
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

Last year, for Washburn, the Twins dangled an unnamed starting major-league pitcher. Word has it that it might have been Boof Bonser, but I have no proof to confirm this.

Essentially, it would have been a salary dump but the M’s still would have gotten a human-being in return. I would have settled for a really good taco salad and a margarita for Washburn straight-up.

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Matthew Carruth
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

“Last year, for Washburn, the Twins dangled an unnamed starting major-league pitcher. Word has it that it might have been Boof Bonser, but I have no proof to confirm this.”

They absolutely did not. The return for Washburn was not even going to be close to that.

However, they should still have done the trade just to clear the salary.

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Chomps McGee
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

Thank you for providing links with proof to clear that up, Matthew.

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Matthew Carruth
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

I don’t care if you believe me or not. I’m speaking to the people out there who have the ounce of common sense to think that someone in my position might actually know what he or she is talking about.

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Chomps McGee
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

Hang on, Matthew, I’ll post links. Awful lot of rumors either way. But since you so easily dismissed this claim I wanted to put up some proof that it MIGHT have been the case. I’m sure you have plently of evidence to support your claim and I understand you don’t want to divulge your sources.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/08/washburn-ibanez.html
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_relatednews.aspx?sport=Mlb&id=1342
http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/2008/08/washburn_its_frustrating.html
http://www.southsidesox.com/2008/8/15/594724/twins-offered-bonser-for-w

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Chomps McGee
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

How dare you assume a Mariner fan would have any common sense. But my posts on this topic alone should sway those beliefs of yours. Since you like to put down your readers I can’t wait to begin reading your blog posts! They are probably chalk full of common sense! How exciting!

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Teej
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

Chomps, the first link you posted clearly showed three of the most prominent Seattle beat writers debunking the Bonser rumor. It was talked about for a day or two, and then everyone realized it was incorrect.

0
Chomps McGee
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

Well, I guess that beats out the several Minnesota beat writers that said otherwise. Therefore: Seattle > Minnesota. I like common sense!

“I received indications that the Twins offered Boof Bonser. Makes sense, as he is out of minor-league options, and the Twins would need to clear a spot for Washburn. As I wrote recently, Bonser is only 26, and it makes sense for a team that is way out of the race to let Bonser make 10 starts down the stretch.”

This is blatant proof that Joe Christensen (Twins writer) is a bigger liar than Nancy Pelosi. Oh, oops, I meant the CIA.

Thanks for clearing that up, Teej!

-3
Teej
14 years ago
Reply to  TheBiz

Who’s calling anyone a liar? One guy just apparently had it wrong, because it was quickly squashed by multiple sources involved in the discussions. No one knows for sure, but it looks pretty clear to me that Christiensen got some bad “indications.”

You’re free to believe whatever you want, but if Bonser was offered and the Twins were willing to take on Washburn’s salary, there’s no way the M’s wouldn’t have jumped at that.

And hey, cool, politics! I was wondering when this conversation would turn awesome.

0