Neftali Feliz, recently invited to the Futures Game was rated among Baseball America’s 10th best prospect coming into this season and the Rangers overall first.

Spending last year between High-A and Double-A, the right-handed Feliz absolutely dominated during the first half while in High-A Clinton. The move up to Double-A encountered some difficulties as expected for someone his age as the strikeouts dropped and the walks rose. Feliz also lost a lot of luster off his shiny ground ball rate, falling from 51% to 38%.

Starting this season out with another promotion, this time to in Triple-A Oklahoma, Feliz has seen his ground ball rate settle in at 44%, about halfway between this two rates last season. The strikeouts have fallen again, now down to 21% of batters faced from his High-A mark of 33%, but he has managed to trim down the walks from 12% to 10% over his Double-A numbers. All in all, it looked encouraging from a person regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

And then this happened:

“We’d like to see if he’s an option to help the Major League club in that role,” general manager Jon Daniels said. “He’s scheduled to throw an inning there tomorrow. We still feel he may start for us in the future but we’re going down that road first.”

That quote is concerning the move of Feliz to the bullpen, nominally in order to get him up to Texas faster. There is just no way this is a good idea. Feliz’s weakness has been in his secondary stuff and moving him to the bullpen will only stunt his development along those fronts. It seems that the Rangers are seriously jeopardizing Feliz’s future as a starter in order to try and provide aid to the Rangers league-worst bullpen. I have news for you Texas, your rotation sucks too. Unless there is something more going on, like a health concern, moving Feliz to the bullpen solely to get him to the big leagues faster, when he is already doing fine in Triple-A, is just plain silly and short-sighted.

During the playoffs last season I penned a brief post here with a title similar to this, focusing on Ryan Madson, who had suddenly discovered how to throw 97 miles per hour. Well, teammate Joe Blanton hasn’t exactly increased his velocity this season, or implemented a new pitch, but he is currently hurling like we have never before seen. His overall numbers are not much to look at, but his early season struggles have seemingly subsided over the last month.

Through May 21, Blanton had the following numbers: 8 GS, 44.1 IP, 17 BB, 37 K, 7.11 ERA. Since then: 6 GS, 39.1 IP, 9 BB, 40 K, 2.75 ERA.

Even when he struggled mightily with home runs and stranding baserunners, Blanton’s strikeouts and walk rates bested those of years past. Suffice to say, his rates over the last month have looked even better. For the season, his 8.3 K/9 and 2.7 UBB/9 are tremendously un-Blantonesque.

The “innings eater” has never before exceeded 5.5 in the K/9 department yet has added approximately three more strikeouts per nine innings this year. With a respectable unintentional walk rate, if Blanton could just stop giving up dingers at a Brett Myers-like pace, he might be considered a legit #2 right now.

His plate discipline metrics reveal an interesting tell: virtually nothing has changed from the last few seasons except contact on pitches out of the zone. Hitters have not reduced their rates of swings on these outside pitches but they are simply swinging and missing much more often. Blanton has opted for some more sliders at the expense of his curve, but could that really be the root cause of his new-found success?

A 5.06 ERA and 4.82 FIP is nothing to write home about, but if Blanton can continue to twirl gems similar to his last several starts, then Kentucky Joe may be able to fill the void left by Myers, meaning someone like Jason Marquis could potentially fill Blanton’s role. Many are quick to suggest the Phillies need to acquire an ace, but if Blanton has legitimately improved into an under the radar, #2 pitcher, they might not need to mortgage the farm for someone like Roy Oswalt.

ZiPS sees Blanton’s K/9 regressing to the 7.4-7.5 area with the UBB/9 coming down to 2.5-2.6. The strikeout rate would remain, by far, the best of his career, while the walk rate would be in line with his career mark, one that is quite solid. Home runs remain an issue, but if he can continue to limit the number of runners that reach base, the inevitable regression in this area might mean more than meets the eye.

The Phillies rotation, as a whole, has substantially improved this month, and the primary reason is Joe Blanton.

As you’ve no doubt heard, Manny Ramirez is hanging out in Triple-A, getting ready to return to the Dodgers after serving his 50 game suspension. Ramirez’s return will certainly give the Dodgers offense a boost, but it has also caused some consternation among some who believe that Juan Pierre has played well enough in Manny’s absence that he should keep playing regularly.

And it’s true, Pierre’s performed admirably well – his .327/.384/.424 line while playing quality defense in left field adds up +1.5 WAR in 240 plate appearances, or about a +3.75 win pace over a full season. If he played that well all the time, he’d actually be worth his contract.

But, of course, Pierre doesn’t play that well with any kind of consistency. And he hasn’t sustained that kind of pace this year, either. Here’s his 2009 season, broken into two chunks.

April 8 – May 28: 133 PA, .407/.470/.542
May 29 – June 24: 107 PA, .232/.276/.283

The first half of Pierre’s season, he hit like a Hall of Fame candidate. In addition to his usual batch of singles, he had 13 extra base hits and drew more walks (12) than strikeouts (10). It was a tremendous stretch of hitting for anyone, much less a guy with a checkered track record like Pierre.

The more recent chunk, however, is more what we’re used to seeing from the guy. No power, few walks (just four, compared with 10 strikeouts), and the ball has stopped finding holes. For the last month, he’s been a sinkhole, making outs in bunches and doing little to nothing to help the Dodgers win.

He’s neither as good as his first 133 PA or as bad as his recent 107, of course. However, based on his full body of work, no one would seriously suggest that Pierre should play ahead of Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, or Andre Ethier. Instead, the argument for Pierre staying in the line-up rests on the theory of “the hot hand”. The problem, of course, is that Pierre hasn’t been “hot” for a month now. Why should the Dodgers play Pierre in July because he hit well in May? Even if you believe in the hot hand, June’s performance requires you to admit that Pierre doesn’t have it anymore.

Pierre is what he is – a +1 win player with good speed and range, a terrible arm, no power, and a horrible contract. He’s not the worst fourth outfielder in the world, but despite his remarkably good run earlier this year, he doesn’t belong in the starting line-up for any team trying to win. Especially one with Ramirez/Kemp/Ethier.

Back to bench, Juan. It’s where you belong.

This column is the final part of a six-part part series looking at the sophomore players around the Major Leagues. We finish up with a look at the National League West, which introduced some very talented pitchers to the league in 2008, especially in Los Angeles. The Arizona Diamondbacks went with quality over quantity with just one rookie making a significant contribution last season.

In the past few days, we have looked at the: AL Central, AL West, AL East, the NL Central and the NL East.

Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and left-handed pitcher Greg Smith both spent their rookie seasons in Oakland, but the (now) sophomores came over to Colorado in the off-season trade for veteran outfielder Matt Holliday. Gonzalez has spent a good portion of the season in triple-A in 2009, although he is currently on the Rockies MLB roster. In the minors, the outfielder hit .339/.418/.630 with 10 homers in 192 at-bats. Called up to the Rockies, he is hitting .180/.226/.280 in 14 games. He’s been striking out a lot (more than 30%, while walking less than 6% of the time). Last season in 302 at-bats with Oakland, Gonzalez hit .242/.273/.361 with four homers and a strikeout rate of 20.2%.

Smith has yet to pitch with the Rockies this season while rehabbing from shoulder woes. He made 32 starts for Oakland as a rookie in 2008 but it remains to be seen how effective he can be in Colorado with a modest fastball and fly-ball tendencies.

Ian Stewart is a former first round selection (10th overall in ’03) of the Rockies, but he has yet to truly display the same potential that he hinted at as a prep player. Stewart, 24, has struggled two hit for average this season with a line of .223/.306/.489 with 13 homers in 184 at-bats. Last season he hit .259/.349/.455 with 10 homers in 266 at-bats. His strikeout rate has actually dropped from 35.3 to 28.3 K% from 2008. The biggest differences have been his BABIP, which has gone from .364 to .235, and his line-drive rate, which has gone from 25.0 to 12.8%.

Starters Franklin Morales and Greg Reynolds have made brief appearances on the Rockies’ pitching staff over the past few years. Morales appeared in eight games in 2007, five in 2008, and two in 2009 – with varying levels of success. Reynolds, 23, made 13 starts for Colorado in 2008 but posted an 8.13 ERA and allowed 83 hits in 62 innings. This season he’s been unable to stay healthy and has made just one appearance in triple-A.

Blake DeWitt was a surprise contributor to the Dodgers club in 2008, but he has not had the same impact in 2009. Last year, the infielder hit .264/.344/.383 with nine homers in 368 at-bats. This year, DeWitt has spent the majority of the year in triple-A where he’s produced modest results. In 19 big league at-bats, though, he has a triple-slash line of .158/.238/.158 with zero extra base hits.

Although not a typical rookie, right-hander Hiroki Kuroda, now 34, posted a 3.73 ERA with 181 hits in 183.1 innings of work for the Dodgers in 2008. This season has been a different story as the Japanese hurler missed most of April and all of May due to injury. When healthy, though, he has a 3.44 ERA with 28 hits allowed in 36.2 innings.

Southpaw Clayton Kershaw was one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball entering the 2008 season, but he struggled with consistency while making 22 appearances, including 21 starts. In 109 innings, he allowed 107 hits and an ERA of 4.26 (4.08 FIP). He posted a walk rate of 4.35 and a strikeout rate of 8.36 K/9. In 2009, the 21-year-old hurler has an ERA of 3.76 (3.79 FIP) with 57 hits allowed in 76.1 innings. His strikeout rate has been similar to 2008, but the walk rate has risen by more than one free pass per nine innings.

Cory Wade, now 26, came out of nowhere last season to post a 2.27 ERA (3.78 FIP) in 71.1 innings as a reliever. The right-hander allowed just 51 hits, while posting rates of 1.89 BB/9 and 6.43 K/9. Wade has not been as sharp in 2009 with 23 hits allowed in 25 innings and an ERA of 4.68 (3.62). His walk rate has risen to 3.60 BB/9 and his strikeout rate has dropped to 5.76.

Chase Headley’s 2008 MLB debut was highly anticipated and the club found room for him at the Major League level by moving him from the hot corner to left field (to accommodate incumbent third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff). Headley, 25, had an OK season and hit .269/.337/.420 with nine homers in 331 at-bats. His walk rate was OK, but not great, at 8.3 BB%, while his strikeout rate was worrisome at 31.4 K%. This season, the rates have been similar, although the strikeout rate is down four percent. Headley has a line of .233/.309/.365 with six homers, while spending time back at third base for the injured Kouzmanoff.

It definitely helps if you have a younger brother that is your employer’s best position player. Edgar Gonzalez finally received his MLB break in 2008 when he made his way to the San Diego organization so he could play with his brother Adrian. A 30-year-old rookie, Edgar hit .274/.329/.385 with seven homers in 325 at-bats as a second baseman and back-up infielder. This season, he has not hit well with a line of .189/.250/.368 and three homers in 95 at-bats.

Catcher Nick Hundley has pretty much been as advertised in his brief Major League career. In 2008, he hit for a low average while producing a line of .237/.278/.359 with five homers in 198 at-bats. His home ballpark mutes his power potential. In 2009, Hundley is showing a little more patience at the plate while hitting .236/.340/.379 with three homers in 140 at-bats. He has a pretty good arm behind the plate but the rest of his defense is average.

Josh Banks was a minor-league acquisition from the Jays organization. The right-hander has a modest fastball and struggles with his command. Last year, he allowed 94 hits in 85.1 innings of work and posted an ERA of 4.75 (5.18 FIP). He had a walk rate of 3.38 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of just 4.54. In triple-A in 2009, Banks had a 2.47 ERA while making 14 appearances, including eight starts. Called up to the Majors, he has made one appearance out of the bullpen and allowed just two hits and no runs in three innings of work.

Pablo Sandoval has done nothing but hit since coming to the Majors in 2008. Last year, he produced a line of .345/.357/.490 with three homers in 145 at-bats. The 22-year-old former catcher has continued to hit for average in 2009 with a line of .336/.385/.544 with eight homers and 22 doubles in 241 at-bats. His walk rate has also improved by four percent, although the strikeout rate has also risen by six percent. Sandoval will also have to watch his conditioning, especially if he hopes to remain at the hot corner, or move back behind the dish.

John Bowker was the Giants’ first baseman almost by default in 2008 and he hit .255/.300/.408 with 10 homers in 326 at-bats. The 25-year-old hitter also posted rates of 7.0 BB% and 22.7 K%. Unhappy with his production, the club has kept Bowker in triple-A all season despite a line of .346/.445/.595 and 13 homers in 237 at-bats.

The club utilized a number of rookie players in the infield in 2008, including Eugenio Velez (who appeared in 98 games and also played the outfield), and Emmanuel Burriss (94 games). Only Burriss has seen significant playing time at the MLB level in 2009 with a line of .238/.292/.267 in 202 at-bats. Velez was seeing time as a utility player and had a line of .194/.216/.222, which earned him a ticket to triple-A.

The Diamondbacks organization knew it had a pretty good pitching prospect in Max Scherzer, but the right-hander has surpassed expectations – both in 2008 and 2009. Last year, he allowed 48 hits in 56 innings and posted rates of 3.38 BB/9 and 10.61 K/9. This year, Scherzer has allowed 77 hits in 79.0 innings, while posting rates of 3.65 BB/9 and 9.23 K/9.

So far this year Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright and Javier Vazquez have each provided a win’s worth of value with their curveballs alone. They have saved over ten runs with their curveballs. On the other end of the spectrum is Brad Penny, whose curveball has cost the Red Sox about a win (9.4 runs).

There is a lot that goes into determining the success of a pitch (speed, location, sequencing, delivery), but for a curveball movement is of the utmost importance. The movement of a pitch is how much the spin of the pitch causes it to deviate from a spinless trajectory, and is commonly broken up into horizontal and vertical components. So the vertical movement is how much a pitch sinks or rises compared to expectation based on its velocity, its trajectory and gravity. The horizontal movement is how much a pitch tails horizontally compared to expectation. Positive horizontal movement indicates a pitch that tails away from a RHB and in to a LHB.

Here are the movements of Halladay’s, Wainwright’s and Penny’s curves
(including Vazquez’s would make the graph too cluttered, but his fit in between Halladay’s and Wainwright’s). The gray dots are the movement of all curves for reference.

Halladay’s curve has a wide range of movement, but generally lots of horizontal movement (tailing away from RHBs an average of about 6 inches) and not much vertical break. Wainwright’s curve has lots of vertical and horizontal movement, sinking and tailing away from RHBs by almost 10 inches in each direction. Penny’s curve has little movement what-so-ever (his curves are very close to 0,0).

The two best curves have more movement than the worst one. I wanted to know if generally the more a curveball broke the better. Is it true that ‘flat curveballs’ get crushed? So I found the run value of a curve based on its total movement (a negative run value is better for the pitcher indicating runs saved). The gray lines are the standard errors.

The relationship is quite strong. As the movement of a curve increases so does its success. Not unexpected, but nice to see. Still you cannot predict curve success entirely on movement, there are many pitchers with worse curves that move way more than Halladay’s. But as a general rule the more one moves the better you can expect it to be.

Update #2 – We are no longer accepting applications for these positions. Thank you for your interest and if you weren’t able to apply, but would have liked to, be sure to keep on the lookout for additional openings.

FanGraphs has openings for three part time research assistants. The job entails mainly research and data entry.

Here are some qualifications we’re looking for:

– experience using Microsoft Excel
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Please send all applications to david@fangraphs.com.

Update: Due to the tremendous amount of interest in these positions, the cutoff for applications will be at 6pm EST today.

Yesterday, we talked about Troy Tulowitzki powering the Rockies resurgence in June. While he’s the main reason, he’s not the only cog in the Colorado offense having a good month. Seth Smith is hitting .417/.463/.556 in June, fulfilling GM Dan O’Dowd’s preseason predictions of a breakout year.

Only, it’s only sort of a breakout season, because Smith keeps finding himself on the bench. It’s hard to break out when you’re sharing time with inferior players. Smith has appeared in 16 games this month, starting eight of them. He has 41 plate appearances in June, the same number as Ryan Spilborghs, who got the start in left field again last night. Spilborgh’s slugging percentage this month is lower than Smith’s batting average. Yet it’s Smith, not Spilborghs, who has been relegated to pinch-hitting duties the last few weeks.

How Smith has been handled by the Rockies this year is ridiculous. He hit .324/.490/.595 in April, despite only starting nine of the 18 games he appeared in and racking up all of 49 plate appearances. The Rockies responded to his hot start by giving him a whopping 60 plate appearances in April, and while his average sank, he drew 11 walks and had five extra base hits. In June, the average is back, and he’s still not playing.

For the season, Smith is hitting .303/.427/.500 for a .412 wOBA. He’s started 29 of the Rockies 72 games. He’s on pace for just over 340 plate appearances. He has a .412 wOBA.

There’s no argument to be made that Spilborghs is a better player. Smith is a 26-year-old patient hitter with gap power and above average defensive abilities who hits both lefties and righties. Spilborghs is a right-handed platoon guy who can hit lefties but shouldn’t ever start against an RHP. Especially not at the expense of Seth Smith.

Both Clint Hurdle and Jim Tracy should be embarrassed by how they’ve handled Smith this season. The team consideres themselves contenders now that they’ve caught fire, and yet they continue to let one of their best players languish on the bench. If you don’t want to play him regularly, Colorado, I’m sure 29 other teams would love to give him a real job.

Stop with the insanity. Put Seth Smith in the line-up and leave him there.

The Pirates were pilloried for “playing it safe” with their selection of Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez as the 4th overall pick on draft day. Most draft gurus and pundits seemed to think a bigger reach could not have been made if Neil Huntington had Go-Go Gadget arms. But was it really so terrible?

One rainy day I took the time to compile the first 6-year WAR totals for all the first round picks drafted in the 1990’s. (6 years because that’s how long a player is under team control). I’ve shared some of the findings elsewhere, but I wanted to revisit the research with respect to the Pirates’ first round pick. Just getting down to brass tacks, college hitters, on average, are worth 1 WAR per season while under team control. What Bucco fans seemed to have wanted was another pitcher, but if any fanbase should know the risk of drafting pitchers in the 1st round, it should be Pittsburgh fans.

While it’s true the strength of this draft was in arms; the problem is that historically first round pitchers have been less valuable than position players. In my study, high school pitchers on average contributed .4 WAR per year during his first 6 years in the majors. College pitchers were only a little better, averaging .5 WAR a season. Furthermore, very highly drafted pitchers seldom become stars, even though most make a contribution. The knock on Sanchez is that he’s hardly a superstar in the making, but then again neither are most the pitchers selected at or near the top of the draft.

So what sort of a big league future do scouts envision for Sanchez? In a nutshell, they see a defense-first catcher with slightly above average hitting skills. Being a catcher is about as physically and mentally demanding job as you can imagine, making them harder to come by. That’s why they get a +12.5 run adjustment when figuring their WAR. And most catchers really suck at hitting; the average regular catcher posted a .315 wOBA last year. Say Sanchez meets expectations by being good for a .320 wOBA and half a win on defense every season. We’re talking about a 2, 2 ½ win per season player. Is that really so awful?

After playing it safe with their highest and most expensive pick, Pittsburgh then loaded up on some high-upside arms, including some potentially tough to sign players. Seems to me Huntington executed a well-laid out plan. Play it safe first with a college position player, then load up on pitching when the distinct advantages disappear.

Now if he can bring Miguel Angel Sano into the fold, the Pirates will have one heck of a farm system.

With Scott Downs down and out on the disabled list, the best reliever in the American League East is…

Nope, not Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon. It’s J.P. Howell of the Rays. A pseudo-relief ace, Howell’s usage is dictated based on the situation. Since closer Troy Percival fell to injury, Howell has been the highest leveraged reliever on staff with an average pLI of 1.88. During that time, Howell has been involved in 15 games, with only three saves coming from it. Howell’s batting line against during the run is a measly .154/.267/.440.

Howell is striking out nearly 11 batters per nine despite possessing a fastball that tops out in the high-80s. An average fastball from him measures at 86 miles per hour. With velocity against Howell, he relies on a slurve and change-up combination to get most of his outs. Howell’s walks and homers allowed have also taken a step in the right direction, and even though it’s unlikely that Howell continues to allow such a low homerun/fly ball ratio, his xFIP is 2.90.

As the trade deadline encroaches, many pundits will place the Rays amongst the suitors for relievers like Huston Street and Jose Valverde. The fact is, they can’t really afford to pay top dollar for a closer. The financial issue may play into Howell’s usage. If Howell is being used in ways other than a traditional closer, his cost could be kept down when he reaches arbitration in the off-season. Using a relief ace makes baseball sense too, and that’s why the Rays are doing it, but the financial aspect is just another perk.

J.P. Howell is one of the best, if not the best, healthy reliever in the American League. He may not rack up the saves, but he deserves to be an all-star.

Jo-Jo Reyes was demoted out of the Atlanta starting rotation in May and then in his first appearance out of the pen, injured his hamstring landing him on the disabled list. Coming back on rehab, Reyes lasted just five pitches before coming out with the hamstring re-injured. That was on June 9th and Reyes has not pitched since.

Reyes was demoted out of the rotation in large part to his proclivity toward walks and home runs, which were teaming up to help drive his ERA up to 7.00. However, there was another huge key to that ERA. Reyes’ LOB%, largely a measure that will tell you how lucky or unlucky a pitcher has been at avoiding costly groupings of hits, was sitting at just over 45% at the time of his demotion. Pitchers normally sit around the low 70s with some fluctuation based on how often they generate strikeouts. In other words, Reyes was getting hammered by the bad luck, for lack of more conclusive evidence, of having his hits grouped more closely together, making them more likely to push runners across the plate.

Reyes’ FIP was 4.99. That’s not a great number, but it is a far sight better than 7.00 and a lot of that high FIP was tied up in a 14.3 home run per fly ball rate. ZiPS projected a 4.49 FIP going forward. That is not the only reason for optimism when it comes to Reyes’ future.

Jo-Jo Reyes also holds the distinction of having the largest increase in swinging strike rate among starting pitches with at least 100 batters faced in both 2008 and 2009. 2007 and 2008 established Reyes as a pitcher with a slightly below average 6.5% missed bat ratio. Enter 2009 and through about 500 pitches, Reyes has jumped that rate a whopping four points to just under 10.5%. Now, that is not a terribly large sample, but swinging strike rate happens to be one the quickest stats to stabilize and even if Reyes did not maintain a rate above 10%, it was still pointing toward him making a big jump in skill this season.

The reason is a lot harder to fetter out, but of note is that Reyes did start throwing his slider a lot more often this season compared to the prior two. And that despite his average fastball speed losing a tick, his other offerings all gained in speed.

It would be easy to dismiss Reyes based on his 6.09 career ERA at the Major League level, but doing so would be bypassing a pitcher who just might have taken a big step forward. He will be interested to watch when he gets back on the mound, wherever that is.