Is That the Same Blanton?

During the playoffs last season I penned a brief post here with a title similar to this, focusing on Ryan Madson, who had suddenly discovered how to throw 97 miles per hour. Well, teammate Joe Blanton hasn’t exactly increased his velocity this season, or implemented a new pitch, but he is currently hurling like we have never before seen. His overall numbers are not much to look at, but his early season struggles have seemingly subsided over the last month.

Through May 21, Blanton had the following numbers: 8 GS, 44.1 IP, 17 BB, 37 K, 7.11 ERA. Since then: 6 GS, 39.1 IP, 9 BB, 40 K, 2.75 ERA.

Even when he struggled mightily with home runs and stranding baserunners, Blanton’s strikeouts and walk rates bested those of years past. Suffice to say, his rates over the last month have looked even better. For the season, his 8.3 K/9 and 2.7 UBB/9 are tremendously un-Blantonesque.

The “innings eater” has never before exceeded 5.5 in the K/9 department yet has added approximately three more strikeouts per nine innings this year. With a respectable unintentional walk rate, if Blanton could just stop giving up dingers at a Brett Myers-like pace, he might be considered a legit #2 right now.

His plate discipline metrics reveal an interesting tell: virtually nothing has changed from the last few seasons except contact on pitches out of the zone. Hitters have not reduced their rates of swings on these outside pitches but they are simply swinging and missing much more often. Blanton has opted for some more sliders at the expense of his curve, but could that really be the root cause of his new-found success?

A 5.06 ERA and 4.82 FIP is nothing to write home about, but if Blanton can continue to twirl gems similar to his last several starts, then Kentucky Joe may be able to fill the void left by Myers, meaning someone like Jason Marquis could potentially fill Blanton’s role. Many are quick to suggest the Phillies need to acquire an ace, but if Blanton has legitimately improved into an under the radar, #2 pitcher, they might not need to mortgage the farm for someone like Roy Oswalt.

ZiPS sees Blanton’s K/9 regressing to the 7.4-7.5 area with the UBB/9 coming down to 2.5-2.6. The strikeout rate would remain, by far, the best of his career, while the walk rate would be in line with his career mark, one that is quite solid. Home runs remain an issue, but if he can continue to limit the number of runners that reach base, the inevitable regression in this area might mean more than meets the eye.

The Phillies rotation, as a whole, has substantially improved this month, and the primary reason is Joe Blanton.