First of all, let me say thanks to David Appelman for inviting me to the party. It’s an honor to be a part of a team of such great writers, hopefully I can maintain the standard of excellence they’ve set. Let’s just get this out of the way right now: I am a Cardinal fan, so please indulge me a bit this morning as sing the praises of the best Cardinal rookie to come along since Phat Albert.

Colby Rasmus is well on his way to winning the NL Rookie of the Year, but early on in the season, it looked like he might have been quickly shuttled back down to AAA. After his first thirty games, Colby was hitting for a meager .263/.343/.379 line as the Cardinals’ 4th outfielder. The isolated plate discipline looked good, but Colby wasn’t really showing the “five tools” he was hyped for in the minors, particularly power. It seemed all too often Colby was watching strike three go by, and his manager preached to him to take a more aggressive approach.

Normally you cringe when you hear a manager telling a kid to stop walking and start hacking, but at least to this point, it’s working for Colby. Since 5/15, Colby is hitting .283/.302/.531, and in the month of June the young Mr. Rasmus is hitting .375/.375/.625. I guess when you’re beating the living hell out of the ball, what’s the point in taking a walk?

Looking at his plate discipline stats, you’ll find he’s no Pablo Sandoval. He does swing at more pitches in the zone than your average bear — the average Z-Swing% is 65.8%, Colby’s is 74.9%, but he’s not just swinging away at any and everything thrown in his direction. His O-Swing% is 24%, which is major league average. In the minors, Colby walked in 11.2% of his plate appearances, so the ability to draw walks is there, at least in potential.

For another oddity, Colby also has reached double-digits in stolen bases in each of his seasons in the minors dating back to his Appy League days, but only has one steal so far this season. I think that speaks more to his team’s philosophy than on Colby’s ability.

What we’re seeing is a 22-year old kid just starting to figure out how good he is, and it’s only going to get better from here. Colby currently has a .336 wOBA and has played freakishly good defense, with a UZR of 12. His rest of season ZiPS projection calls for a modest .323 wOBA which he could easily surpass. Assuming he’s not this amazing at defense, but is at least a +1 win fly catcher in center as his minor league numbers suggest, and we’re talking about not just the Senior Circuit’s best rookie, but one of its best center fielders, and this could just be the tip of the iceberg of what is to come.

The New York Yankees possess one of baseball’s best lineups. Big contributions from Mark Teixeira and Johnny Damon leave the Yankees ranked second in team wOBA and team wRAA. How the Yankees’ offense has hit to date is impressive, even when you take their ballpark into consideration. Alex Rodriguez’s odd, abbreviated season has seen him contribute only a run and a half more than Brett Gardner, but it’s hard to blame Rodriguez; the star third baseman has spent most of his time rehabbing and suffering more poor breaks on balls in play than Garry Hoy.

That offensive state of mind exists beyond the pantheon of new Yankee Stadium. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, home to the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, features a triplet of red-hot bats. Shelley Duncan, Austin Jackson, and John Rodriguez patrol the outfield while on defense, and hit balls into the outfield during their time on offense. The three are inseparable on top of most International League leaderboards. Here’s how they stack up:

Rodriguez: .292/.377/.521
Jackson: .342/.410/.451

Duncan: .294/.369/.628

Jackson is the only one with a foreseeable future in pinstripes, since most prospect analysts rank him as the top prospect in the system. It’s easy to see how, as Jackson plays a smooth centerfield and flashes impressive offensive production for a 22-year-old. Look for him to claim a starting gig in the Bronx sometime over the next 12 months.

Rodriguez and Duncan are journeymen, albeit with some notable history in the majors.

The left-handed Rodriguez collected his major league experience in 2005 and 2006 with the Cardinals. He didn’t hit for a lot of power, and was little more than an average defender in the corner outfield. He did hit righties decently, and was used primarily in a platoon role. Rodriguez was nothing to spill your checkbook over, but teams have become infatuated with players of inferior quality of the years.

Duncan incites brawls, and during his brief major league career hit both lefties and homers. A lumbering man, Duncan’s defensive repertoire is limited to first base, DH, or a corner outfield position. He’s not a full-time player, but again, a team could do a lot worse than Duncan as the right-handed half of a platoon.

The powerful performance of Scranton’s outfield reveals that the Yankees have some offensive depth in the minors ready to go, which makes Angel Berroa’s continued employment in the Bronx all the more bewildering.

How about another interesting streak of pitching? On June 10th in the bottom of the 2nd inning, Juan Pierre grounded out to the second baseman against Kevin Correia. At the time, Rafael Furcal was on 2nd after a single and sac bunt. On June 21st, in the top of the 5th inning, Landon Powell grounded out to the right side with two outs and Orlando Cabrera standing on second after a two-out double. The pitcher was also Kevin Correia. In between those two events, Kevin Correia faced 52 batters. During those 52 trips to the plate, there was never a man on base.

Correia retired the final fourteen men that he faced against the Dodgers, but as two of them came with Rafael Furcal on base, only the final twelve count here, comprising his work during the 3rd through 6th innings. At the other end, Correia retired the first 14 batters against Oakland on June 21st before surrendering the double to Cabrera and putting his streak to an end. In between those two games, Correia had a June 16th game in which he went eight innings and never once pitched out of the stretch, ultimately losing to a complete game, shut-out by Felix Hernandez.

Now, the reason it was 52 straight batters out of the windup and not the more impressive 52 straight batters retired is that during the Seattle game, Correia surrendered two home runs, one to Adrian Beltre and the other to Franklin Gutierrez. Obviously, neither put a runner on base. Here’s the breakdown of the 52 batters:

-Nine struck out swinging
-Five struck out looking
-21 hit ground balls (all outs)
-12 hit fly balls (10 outs, two home runs)
-One hit a line drive
-Four hit pop flys

31 balls were put in play during the stretch and all 31 were turned into outs. Correia also struck out 14 with, obviously, no walks so it was not solely a streak of good luck and good defense.

If you’ve hung around here very long, you’ve heard the term replacement level. We often refer to a players performance in terms of his Wins Above Replacement, which is based on the replacement level baseline. Despite significant inroads in acceptance, replacement level can still be one of those murky things to try to explain to someone. Fans, and even some GMs, will often find it hard to believe that you can get decent performances from guys for the league minimum, and constantly want examples of guys who prove the replacement level baseline.

Well, today, we got yet another walking example. The Twins designated Luis Ayala for assignment, as Minnesota becomes the third team to get rid of him in the last 12 months. Here’s how he’s performed over the last three seasons.

BB/9: 2.55, 2.83, 2.23
K/9: 5.95, 5.95, 5.83
HR/9: 1.06, 1.07, 1.11

Or, if you want to see it expressed in terms of wins above replacement: 0.0, 0.0, 0.1.

Ayala’s settled in as an extremely consistent 4.4 FIP reliever. He throws strikes, givese up a few home runs, and gets some strikeouts, but he doesn’t do any of those things exceptionally well or poorly. He throws a 91 MPH fastball, an 83 MPH slider, and an 82 MPH change – about as average in terms of stuff as you could find.

There’s nothing that stands out about Ayala. He’s just a run of the mill strike throwing reliever with nondescript stuff. The Wins Above Replacement metric things he’s essentially the baseline against which all other relievers should be measured, and MLB teams agree. Ayala’s performance is good enough to keep landing him jobs and bad enough for those teams to decide they could do better.

Luis Ayala defines replacement level.

We’re coming up on the halfway point of the season, and there seems to be a theme – the lessons to be learned over the last seven days are things we already should have known. Here’s what we learned last week.

Albert Pujols is ridiculous.

He only hit .389 for the week, but he made those hits count. Four of his seven hits went for home runs, and he slugged 1.111 over the last seven days. His home run total is now up to 26 for the season, and his power surge has given him a career high .469 wOBA. It’s getting so silly that his intentional walks are close to being even with his strikeouts. The guy is just a pure hitting machine. Barring a strange second half of the season, he should clear out some space on his mantle for another MVP trophy.

Gordan Beckham has adjusted to major league pitching.

After a rough start to his major league career, Beckham has adjusted and is stinging the ball lately. He hit .375/.524/.625 over the last week, drawing four walks against just three strikeouts. His overall line might not look like much, but he’s showing some legitimate offensive skills a year after being drafted. The White Sox have a good one here.

Chris Davis is killing the Rangers.

Jon Daniels gave Davis a vote of confidence a few weeks ago, stating that their commitment to young players required that they stick with them through tough times. That’s going to be tested, as the Rangers offense has fallen apart and the team has stopped winning, while Davis continues to flounder. He was 1 for 20 with 9 strikeouts last week, and that’s just not the kind of performance the Rangers can live with from their first baseman.

Wandy Rodriguez’s regression has come swiftly.

In his first eight starts of the season, Wandy Rodriguez did not give up a home run. Through eleven starts, he’d only given up one long ball despite allowing 71 fly balls. Everything we know about the predictability of HR/FB rate told us that regression was coming. Man, was it ever. He gave up four home runs last week, in addition to the five he gave up the week before, and nine of his last 28 fly balls have left the yard. From a 1.4% HR/FB rate through 11 starts to a 32.1% HR/FB rate over his last four, Rodriguez is walking proof that getting a lot of fly ball outs is a risky path to success.

The Brewers could use a pitcher or two.

It was an ugly week for the arms in Milwaukee. As a team, they posted a 6.08 FIP, and five of their pitchers had an ERA of 10+ for the week. Braden Looper and Dave Bush got pounded for six home runs in 10 innings of work between them, while Manny Parra was banished to Triple-A due to an inability to throw strikes. Their rotation currently stands as Yovanni Gallardo and cover your eyes for four days. The Brewers have a good team, but Doug Melvin needs to get them another arm pronto.

Last week, we took a break from our regularly scheduled programming of reliving an exciting game to recap some of the best games that had gone unnoticed. While this tactic may be employed in future weekly recaps, this week boasted an incredible game worthy of the top spot all by its lonesome. Interestingly enough, it actually took place on Monday, at the beginning of the week, as opposed to the end of the week, when games seem to resonate much more. On Monday, the Indians and Brewers engaged in an epic interleague battle capped by a pretty remarkable comeback.

At two different junctures, the Indians had a probability of winning greater than 93 percent. In the fourth inning, with an 8-3 lead, the Tribe had a 93.2 percent shot at being victorious. At the end of the sixth frame, leading 12-7, their win expectancy stood pat at 96.5 percent. There was only a 3.5 percent chance the Indians would lose this game. If it were to be repeated 99 more times, the Brewers would win, given the circumstances of the sixth inning, under four times. This would be one of those four games.

Carl Pavano and Dave Bush squared off in a battle of underachievers, and after a two-run homer off the bat of Victor Martinez, a third of the game had been finished with the Indians on top, 4-3. Bush struggled in the fourth and would not stay in to see it to its end. After walking Luis Valbuena he beaned Kelly Shoppach. Valbuena advanced to third on a wild pitch with Jamey Carroll at the dish, and then scored on Carroll’s single, increasing the lead to 5-3.

Mark DeRosa then singled in Shoppach, and thanks to an error on the part of Ryan Braun, Carroll advanced to third with DeRosa moving up to second. V-Mart promptly singled them in and the fourth inning ended with an 8-3 lead for the Tribe.

A two-run triple off the bat of Braun and a sac fly from Prince Fielder brought the Brewers within two, and another sac fly from Craig Counsell in the sixth lessened the margin to one run. The Indians did not stand pat in their half of the sixth, however, tacking on four more runs on a solo shot from DeRosa and a three-run dinger from Travis Hafner.

In the seventh, Corey Hart added to the Brewers runs total with a (shocker!) sac fly. After seven innings, the Indians led 12-8, and would rely on Luiz Vizcaino to start the bullpen party. After J.J. Hardy flied out, Vizcaino issued free passes to Counsell and Mike Rivera. Matt Herges came in and walked Casey McGehee. Braun hit an RBI single, keeping the bases loaded with one out and the score 12-9. Rafael Perez came in for Herges but fared no better, as Prince Fielder launched a grand slam, putting the Brewers ahead 13-12.

After Corey Hart singled and Mike Cameron walked, Mat Gamel knocked Hart in to increase the new found lead to 14-12. Todd Coffey and Mitch Stetter easily handled the Tribe in the seventh and eighth frames, and despite the outing being a tad rocky, Trevor Hoffman successfully converted the save to cap an incredible comeback.

The best defensive outfield on land roams in Seattle most nights. Its claim to the crown grows more challenging asEndy Chavez will miss the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL over the weekend in a collision with shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt. It seems Wladimir Balentien will platoon in left alongside Ronny Cedeno and/or an additional promotion at some point. Expect some drop-off unless the M’s add a strong defender ath position.

Betancourt does little right nowadays. Even after he swallows sadness (amongst other items) he ranks as one of the worst overall players in the majors. Jose Lopez forms Seattle’s middle infield, and neither is especially good with his glove anymore. On a team with an otherwise solid defense, the Betancourt-Lopez connection sticks out like Cyrano’s nose. Here’s how the pair stack up:

Player INN DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
Betancourt 522 0.5 -0.68 -2.2 -8.6 -20.1
Lopez 538 0.5 0.2 -3.2 -2.5 -5.9

Betancourt’s defensive decline stems from a robust error rate. Even if Betancourt’s ball-handling skills have decayed, it seems unlikely that he became this poor, this quickly. The range runs and double-play rate are around expectations, reflecting Betancourt’s atrocious play while maintaining that his true talent level is better than the UZR/150 suggests, if only barely.

Lopez can ill afford to chuckle at his counterpart’s failures. The bright side for Lopez is that his error rate is uncharacteristic and remains the only component relatively different from years past. Lopez’ family issues and once again disappearing bat will open the door at second base, but the Mariners currently have little on the shelves. Chris Woodward and newcomer Josh Wilson are little more than replacement level infielders. Ronny Cedeno seems like a logical answer, yet his bat has gone wayward as well.

The Mariners have some parts to move in the next few weeks. When they make a deal, look for at least one middle infielder to head to Seattle. Who and for what remains to be seen.

With one out in the top of the 7th of a game between the Mets and the Yankees on June 13th, Gary Sheffield hit a home run to deep left off of Alfredo Aceves. With two outs in the top of the 5th of today’s game between the Marlins and the Yankees, Hanley Ramirez hit a two-run home run off of Brett Tomko that tied the game at three. What is the significance? Well, between those two events, Yankee relievers allowed exactly zero runs, a period that spanned 20 innings. Lets have a roll call of the eight pitchers involved.

Alfredo Aceves pitched the most of those 20 innings, clocking in with five. Over his stints, he allowed zero walks and struck out three.

Phil Hughes, coming out of the pen while Chein-Ming Wang remains in the rotation, was next in line, tossing four innings, striking out six and not issuing a walk.

Phil Coke handled three innings and punched out six batters during them, though he did allow a walk.

Jose Veras had a quiet pair of innings, walking none and getting two strikeouts.

David Robertson faced eight hitters over his two innings pitched. His two walks made him the only pitcher to walk that many. He also struck out three and induced two ground outs and an infield fly out.

Brett Tomko had a ho-hum 1.2 innings with no walks and two strikeouts.

Brian Bruney chipped in for 1.1 innings with a strikeout and a pair of ground outs.

Mariano Rivera matched Bruney but in one less out, going one inning with a strikeout and a pair of ground outs.

All told, 20 innings, three walks, 24 strikeouts and, quite obviously, no home runs. Of the 46 balls put in play, 18 of them were on the ground, a solid 39%. It was quite a stretch of dominance.

Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the National League Central division. Of the six teams in the division, no club relied on young players in 2008 more than the Cincinnati Reds – both in the field and on the mound.

In the past few days, we have looked at the: AL Central, AL West, AL East.

In any other year, Joey Votto would have had a legitimate shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the National League. Last season, the first baseman hit .297/.368/.506 with 24 homers and 84 RBI in 526 at-bats. He also posted a walk rate of 10.1% and a strikeout rate of 19.4%. This season, Votto has dealt with some medical concerns, but he’s still hitting a robust .357/.464/.627 with eight homers and 33 RBI in 126 at-bats. His strikeout rate is virtually the same, but the 25-year-old Canadian has increased his walk rate by almost five percent.

It’s funny how baseball works. Outfielder Jay Bruce was the most highly-anticipated rookie of the year at the beginning of 2008, but his rookie season ended up being pretty average. Now 22, Bruce spent the first 48 games of the season in triple-A before his promotion. In the Majors, he hit .254/.314/.453 with 21 homers in 413 at-bats. He also had a walk rate of 7.4% and a strikeout rate of 26.6%. This season, he’s hitting just .217/.306/.469 with 16 homers in 226. On the positive side, his walk rate has increased by three percent and the strikeout rate is down four percent. After posting a .298 BABIP last season, Bruce’s BABIP is a ridiculously low .206. His line drive rate is down seven percent from the 21.1 LD% he had last season. Right now, he’s kind of looking like a cross between Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn, which isn’t really a good thing. At least he’s still very young.

The only bigger enigma in the Reds’ system is right-hander Homer Bailey. The 23-year-old pitcher has very good stuff, but consistency is not his strong suit. After a disappointing nine starts in 2007, Bailey returned to the Majors for part of 2008 and posted a 7.93 ERA with 59 hits in 36.1 innings. He posted a 4.21 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of just 4.46 K/9. This season, Bailey has made just one (poor) MLB start while spending the majority of his time in triple-A. He has a 2.83 ERA with 81 hits allowed in 82.2 innings. He has a walk rate of 2.72 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.06 K/9.

Johnny Cueto was mostly an unknown prospect prior to the 2008 season but he made a name for himself pretty quickly. Overall, the right-hander was 9-14 with a 4.81 ERA and he was inconsistent all season. However, he still struck out more than 150 batters (8.17 K/9) while keeping the walks to a modest number (3.52 BB/9). This season, the 23-year-old has been even better with a 2.17 ERA and 68 hits allowed in 87 innings. He’s decreased his walk rate by almost one full walk per nine innings, but his strikeout rate has also dropped. Cueto’s ground-ball rate is also up, though, and he’s becoming more of a pitcher and less of a thrower.

Milwaukee fans had been waiting for Manny Parra to “arrive” for quite a few seasons, but his MLB career was delayed by injuries in the minors. The left-hander’s rookie season in 2008 had promise, although he allowed far too many hits with 181 in just 166 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 4.07 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.97. This season, Parra completely fell apart before being demoted to triple-A. In the Majors, Parra posted a 7.52 ERA with 83 hits in 64.2 innings. His walk rate jumped to 5.71 BB/9.

Kyle McClellan, 25, was a key part of the Cardinals bullpen in 2008 despite an uninspired minor league career. The right-hander posted a 4.04 ERA with 79 hits allowed in 75.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 3.09 BB/9 and 7.02 K/9. This season, the reliever has a 3.45 ERA and has allowed just 23 hits in 31.1 innings. He has struggled with his walk rate at 4.88 BB/8 and his strikeout rate is 6.61 K/9.

J.R. Towles was one of the Astros’ better hitting prospects prior to the 2008 season but he struggled mightily in the Majors. The right-handed hitting catcher batted just .137/.250/.253 with a strikeout rate of 27.4 K%. He hit more than .300 after a demotion to triple-A. This season, Towles, 25, has appeared in just four MLB games and has a batting average of .182. He’s spent the Majority of the year in triple-A and has a triple-slash line of .281/.385/.461. With top prospect and catcher Jason Castro in double-A, Towles’ future is probably in another organization.

A Rule 5 pick-up from the Dodgers, Wesley Wright appeared in 71 games for the Astros in 2008. He posted an ERA of 5.01 and allowed 45 hits in 55.2 innings of work. He had a walk rate of 5.50 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.22 K/9. The southpaw held lefties to a .207 batting average and righties hit .220. This year, Wright struggled with a 7.24 ERA and allowed 23 hits in 13.2 innings. He was then demoted to triple-A.

Kosuke Fukudome had a red-hot first few months in the Majors and then fell off the face of the earth for the remainder of 2008. Overall, the Japanese rookie hit .257/.359/.279 with 10 homers and 12 stolen bases in 501 at-bats. Last year, he hit .279 in the first half of the year and just .217 in the second half. This year, he got off to another good start but has cooled as of late to an overall line of .266/.394/.429 with five homers and four steals. The 32-year-old outfielder does not have youth on his side.

The reigning Rookie of the Year in the NL, Geovany Soto had a great offensive season for the Cubs. He hit .285/.364/.504 with 23 homers and 86 RBI in 494 at-bats. The catcher also posted a walk rate of 11.2 BB% and a strikeout rate of 24.5 K%. This year has been a disaster as he’s hit just .217/.324/.311 with three homers in 161 at-bats. His rates are pretty much the same but his power has dried up. The Cubs really need his bat to wake up.

The Pirates received some help from outfielders Brandon Moss and Nyjer Morgan in 2008. Moss was acquired from Boston in the Jason Bay deal, while Morgan is a homegrown talent. Moss had a modest rookie year and hit just .246/.304/.436 with eight homers and one steal in 236 at-bats. His strikeout rate was high at 29.7 K%. It’s dropped almost 10 percent this season but the outfielder is still not hitting well with a line of .243/.293/.343 with one homer and no steals. Morgan, on the other hand, is exceeding expectations. The speedy outfielder had just nine steals in 14 attempts last year but he hit .294/.345/.375 in 160 at-bats. This season he has 16 steals in 23 attempts and is hitting .261/.338/.340. Morgan, 28, looks like a useful fourth outfielder.

On the front page, over there on the right hand side, you’ll see some top five leaderboards for our win based statistics that we track on the site – WAR and WPA. If you look at the top of the list for batters in WAR, you’ll notice Joe Mauer has ascended to the pinnacle, as his 3.8 wins above replacement to date leads all major league position players.

Now, to rack up a +3.8 win value through mid-June is impressive enough on its own. Our fair value salary estimate suggests that Mauer has already played well enough to justify a $17 million contract for 2009, and we’re still a few weeks away from the all-star game. Even more amazing, of course, is that Mauer missed the first few month of the season with a back injury that landed him on the DL. Mauer has racked up his 3.8 WAR in just 43 games, totaling 190 plate appearances.

If we prorated Mauer’s performance out over a full catcher season, plus giving him some time at DH, we’d be looking at a +12 WAR season. The only guy to put up 12+ WAR in a single season since ’02 (as far as our numbers go back) is Barry Bonds, and we’ll just say that there’s a wee bit of controversy surrounding that guy.

So, there’s no doubt, Mauer’s having an incredible season. Playing a +12 win level, even for just a few months, is pretty remarkable. But, here’s the thing – our version of WAR probably underrates Mauer, because we don’t try to quantify the defensive value of each catcher. Because of the problems in evaluating catcher defense, for right now, we just assume they’re all average for the purposes of calculating win values. Of course, they aren’t all average – some are demonstrably better than others.

Mauer is one of those better than average guys. Baseball-Reference tracks “runners bases advanced” and “runner kills”, which quantifies how many bases opposing runners are able to take with a certain catcher behind the dish (whether via SB, PB, or WP) and how many times a catcher is able to gun down a runner on the bases. Mauer’s allowed 27 baserunner advancements and has seven runner kills, for a 3.91 rate of advances-to-kills. The league average is 4.96. This isn’t new, either – his career rate is 3.47.

We don’t have a good way of evaluating the other stuff catchers do, or how their responsibilities behind the plate translate into the batter/pitcher match-up. But, there’s certainly not any evidence that Mauer is below average at that stuff, either – the Twins have their highest BB/K rate and lowest opposing BA, OBP, and SLG when he’s behind the plate of any of their three catchers. Despite having a rotation full of guys with fairly pedestrian stuff, the Twins pitchers keep outperforming expectations, and some of that credit has to go Mauer’s way.

If we knew how to evaluate catcher defense well, odds are pretty good we’d be adjusting Mauer’s win value up even higher than it is now, likely pushing him over the +4 win plateau. He’s played 43 games, and he’s already had a full, all-star worthy season.

Right now, Joe Mauer is the most valuable player in the American League, and it isn’t particularly close.