Archive for July, 2009

Avoid Backe

The Houston Astros wisely designated Brandon Backe for assignment last week, eventually ending his tenure with the club. Nobody claimed Backe when he was placed on waivers, meaning that Backe could either opt to be released or accept a demotion to the minors. He declined the latter and was given his outright release, making him available to the 29 other teams in the league.

This isn’t going to be a lengthy post because it doesn’t need to be, but I am strongly advocating that teams avoid Backe. With injuries and ineffectiveness, he hasn’t been a viable major league starter since the 2005 season, and at 31 years old, there really isn’t much upside here.

If he is willing to accept a minor league deal and prove himself then the story might go a little differently, but a pitcher with a sub-2.0 K/BB ratio, thereby exhibiting poor command usually needs to have some potential to improve to sustain a job or some sort of blistering fastball. Backe has neither, and at this point would not upgrade the rotation of any contender or serve as a potential chip for any of the non-contenders.

Backe has a career 5.23 ERA and 5.33 FIP, an 88-89 mph fastball with average or below movement, and has never ventured above the 0.9 WAR mark. Full disclosure, that 0.9 win season wasn’t very good, but involved about 150 innings being logged. Simply put, Backe is a replacement level pitcher, the kind of guy a team should call up from Triple A when someone gets hurt.

Sure, he will be cheap, but teams would be better suited to try their young guys than dish out starts to a subpar pitcher. Replacement level with potential for upside always beats plain old replacement level.


A Real Fastball

Relief pitchers throw hard. This isn’t news. Jonathan Broxton, Brian Wilson, Matt Lindstrom, and Mark Lowe all average 96 MPH+ with their fastballs. Angel Guzman throws a 90 MPH slider. These guys are big, power arms who come in and light up radar guns. And compared to Joel Zumaya, they throw like nine year olds.

See, Zumaya’s average fastball this year is 99.4 MPH according to BIS, 99.1 MPH according to Pitch F/x. In fact, I’m going to just stop writing and show you a picture.

zumaya

That’s Zumaya’s velocity chart over the last three years on a game by game basis. Look at the recent averages, then notice that they’re above the blue line that marks 100 MPH. Of late, Zumaya’s average fastball has been faster than 100 MPH. His average fastball.

This is just nutty. In his last appearance against the A’s, his fastballs went like this.

102
102.6
102.7
101.9
99.7 (I guess he took a little off)
99.9
99.2
100
100.4
101
101.3

12 fastballs, with an average velocity of 100.9 MPH. And he didn’t strike anybody out. In fact, he didn’t strike anyone out in the appearance before that, either, when he threw 25 fastballs that averaged 100.6 MPH. Despite throwing as hard as anyone ever has, it isn’t helping him much. Here’s Zumaya’s line for June, when he just started hitting triple digits on nearly every pitch.

10 1/3 IP, 12 H, 2 HR, 14 BB, 10 K, 8.43 FIP

As his fastball has edged up in velocity, his command has gone away entirely, and he’s been a Triple-A level reliever. Compare that with his 12 appearances in April/May, when he threw 16 innings, allowed 15 hits, walked 2, and struck out 15 for a 3.33 FIP. In his best outing of the year (May 19th vs Texas), he threw 10 fastballs and cracked 100 just once. He recorded three outs on 11 pitches, eight of which were strikes.

For Zumaya, there appear to be diminishing returns associated with his velocity. 99 with location is an awful lot better than 101 with no idea where it’s going. For his sake, and really for baseball’s sake, let’s hope the Tigers can help him ease back off the fastball a little bit. The game could really use a fun to watch relief ace who can hit 100 whenever he wants come October. It is less enjoyable to see him walk the world throwing 102.


Where are Ryan Howard’s HRs going?

Ryan Howard’s HR/FB rate, at 23.5%, is lower than his HR/FB rate in any of his full years of play, in which it was always above 30%. He has replaced some of those HRs with doubles and 23.5% is still a very good rate, but the drop in HRs is interesting and even more interesting is where those HRs have gone.

how_hrs

Ryan Howard has been the epitome of power to all fields. Jeremy Greenhouse previously noted he hits historically high numbers of HRs to the opposite field, and, it seems, prior to this year he hits HRs almost uniformly to all parts of the field (most power hitters hit the majority of their HRs to the pull field). This year, though, almost all of his HRs have been to dead center with very few in the pull field and only one opposite shot. Dead center is not the best place to try to hit HRs as it is the largest part of a ball park.

Next I wanted to see if Howard has seen a drop in his fly ball distances. Again these distances are using the GameDay data which records were the ball was fielded or landed for a HR. Consider two hits, one to center and one pulled, both travel the same distance in the air but then roll to the wall where they are fielded. Since the wall is farther away in center it will be recorded as a longer hit. Thus this method will overestimate the distance of fly balls to center field.

how_pow

Here you can see Howard’s power to all fields. The average lefty has power to the pull field and drops off to opposite field. Howard’s power peaks at dead center, but is present to all fields. This year he has even more power to center and less power to the pull and opposite fields. This is why his HRs have mostly been to center, he is missing them to the pull and opposite fields and his overall HR numbers are down.

Finally let’s look at the location of the pitches he hits for HRs.

hr_pitches_loc

Before this year he hit pitches all over the plate for HRs. This year he has hit fewer inside and outside pitches for HRs, which is probalby why he is missing all those opposite and pull field HRs.

So we know why Howard is hitting fewer HRs, a drop in power to the pull and opposite fields, but it is too early to tell if these differences are small sample size realated or a real shift in true talent.


Aroldis Chapman Reportedly Defects

Heading up to the draft, one of the main topics of conversation was how much Stephen Strasburg was worth, and how much he’d eventually sign for. Rumors of a $50 million bonus demand were floated, while the consensus seemed to be that he’ll sign for $15 to $20 million, because he lacks the leverage to negotiate with teams besides the Washington Nationals. The big “what if” question was how much a prospect like Strasburg would get if he was a free agent.

We might find out sooner than later, because Aroldis Chapman has reportedly defected from Cuba. R.J. wrote about his WBC start here, where Chapman showed off a legitimate power fastball from the left side. In their scouting report of the top 10 WBC prospects, Baseball America got the following quote from a scout:

“If you are looking for more than that in a pitcher, you’ll be searching your whole life,” an AL scout said. “He was so much fun to watch. If he’s 21 like he’s listed, the sky’s the limit. You’ve got honestly just one or two tweaks that could be made but he could go straight to the top of a big league rotation.”

Unlike with Strasburg, or even Japanese sensation Yu Darvish, Chapman has to be evaluated on his physical tools rather than his performance, but those tools are plenty exciting. It isn’t every day that a 21-year-old LHP with a mid-90s fastball becomes available for all 30 teams to bid on.

Let’s just hope, for the good of baseball, that he doesn’t end up with the Red Sox or Yankees.


Andy Marte Major League Chances

Andy Marte completed a backslide of epic proportions earlier in the year when he was designated for assignment to clear a roster spot for a Juan Salas, a relief pitcher who the Tribe claimed off of waivers from the Rays. No team claimed Marte, and Salas was later dumped on May 6th in favor of Matt Herges.

From being a top prospect to major downer, it seems like Andy Marte has been around forever. Dave Cameron already took us through Marte’s fall from grace back in February, but I’ll recap it quickly: Marte first hit the prospect scene after posting a .211 ISO in the Sally League in 2002 as an 18-year old. He showed impressive patience and pop in a tough hitter’s environment in the Carolina League (12% walk rate, .184 ISO) the following year. Marte continued to mash in the higher levels of the minors hit, with a nifty .269/.364/.525 “slash” line as a 20-year old in Double-A, and .275/.372/.506 as a 21-year old in Triple-A.

Going into 2006, by all appearances, Marte was ready for a big league job. Baseball America rated him the number one prospect in the Braves’ system and the 14th best overall, but with Chipper Jones receiving a three-year extension, Marte was traded to Boston for Edgar Renteria. Boston then flipped Marte along with Guillermo Mota, Kelly Shoppach to Cleveland Indians for Josh Bard, Coco Crisp, David Riske and Randy Newsom. To prospect geeks like me, it seemed a little strange to see a supposed future star get traded twice in one winter, and especially for solid-but-unspectacular players like Crisp and Renteria (who was coming off the worst season of his life).

You know the rest of the story. After being traded twice, Marte was terrible for Cleveland and middling in Triple-A, up until now. Last night for AAA Columbus, Marte went 4-for-4 with two doubles and a homer. In his last ten games, he’s hit .459/.512/.892. His overall line is now up to .319/.351/.527 for the season. It would be tempting to write that sort of performance off considering how this is his 8th season in the minors, but Marte is 25 years old, not young, yet hardly Quad-A age.

After being traded to Cleveland, Marte has gone from being posting decent walk rates to being downright hacky, walking in just around 5% of his plate appearances. His BABIP (.335) is a tad high, but doesn’t really show anything super-fluky. Marte is making solid contact, striking out in 16.7% of his plate appearances. His minor league equivalent is .287/.313/.458, definitely not the superstar level, but the Indians will take it, especially taking into account that Marte is regarded as being one of the better defenders in the minors, so much so, he was voted by minor league managers and coaches as the International League’s best defensive third baseman three years in a row (’05-’07). His Total Zone numbers match the scouting reports; in those 301 games, Marte has been worth +31 runs.

Marte still could and should be a productive major league player, even if merely productive is a fraction of what is upside once was perceived as. Since Mark DeRosa has been traded to St. Louis, Jhonny Peralta and his disappearing power act has taken up residency at third base for Cleveland. So once again, Marte has opportunity. Hopefully he can make the most of his next chance, because it should be coming soon.


The Pleasures of Strand Rate

Name the pitchers:
Pitcher A: 172.2 IP, 17.31% K, 5.85 BB%, 10.1% HR/FB, 67.7% LOB, 5.16 ERA, 4.55 FIP
Player B: 112.2 IP, 14.64% K, 7.88 BB%, 10.8% HR/FB, 85.9% LOB, 2.64 ERA, 4.53 FIP

Pitcher B is Kevin Millwood, benefactor of an unsustainable amount of stranded runners, thus keeping his ERA at a comfortable, and easily overrated, 2.64. Pitcher A is also Kevin Millwood, two seasons ago. The differences between the two seasons are minimal. This Millwood walks a few more, strikes out a few less, and has a vastly superior defense behind him, otherwise, they’re the same pitcher – literally and figuratively.

Millwood’s spiffy ERA has some placing him on their All-Star ballots, which is fair, as long as shortstop Elvis Andrus, right fielder Nelson Cruz, and the rest of the Rangers defense gets to play tag along to St. Louis. Don’t be surprised to see Millwood sneak onto some Cy Young ballots either, even if he cannot avoid the regression but as the season progresses. What would regression hold for the Texas righty?
Millwood’s strikeout and walk ratios share company with Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Bannister, Paul Maholm, and Dallas Braden. Guthrie’s homerun rate is too high, while Bannister’s, Maholm, and Braden’s are too low to be perfect matches with Millwood, but check out their ERA:

Guthrie 5.11
Bannister 3.93
Maholm 4.35
Braden 3.26

The closest, Braden, has a lofty 75% strand rate of his own and his ERA is still about a half run higher than Millwood. Even if you discount the high/low totals, you see Millwood’s company has an ERA in the 4-4.5 spread, about equal to his FIP. If you have Millwood on your fantasy team, sell him now. There are some examples of seasons like this actually lasting through October, but don’t bet on another Steve Trachsel 1996, just pull the trigger before it’s too late.


A June to Note in Liberty City

With June over, I was taking a look back at the month for various teams and Philadelphia really stood out to me because of four players and the team overall. In June, the Phillies went just 11-15 and yet they expanded their lead by a game. As a team, they hit just .249/.320/.423 leading to a below average .326 wOBA.

The starting pitchers compiled a very solid 2.4 strikeouts per walk ratio, but a below average ground ball rate and a slightly elevated home run figure kept them right around average overall. Meanwhile, the bullpen was almost the opposite with a mediocre 1.34 strikeouts per walk, but a fabulous 46% ground ball rate kept the home runs at bay.

Moving on to the players themselves, here are some of the more interesting lines. First, a pair of mashers.

Jayson Werth heated up big time in June, which was an accomplishment given his .379 wOBA through May. 18 walks to just 20 strikeouts was an improvement and his ten extra base hits included seven of the long ball variety. Overall, it was a .930 OPS and a .406 wOBA, good for about eight runs over average. Exceeding that was Chase Utley. Utley came into June with a .436 wOBA, and he bettered that with a .440 wOBA in June. That included a matched 21 strikeouts and walks and fifteen extra base hits with a triple and six home runs.

On the other end of the spectrum was Jimmy Rollins. Rollins has had one of the most baffling seasons of late. Coming off five straight seasons of at least four wins, Rollins has been worth -0.6 wins to date. It was a horrible first two months and June was even worse. Rollins’ line ended at .167/.206/.292, bad for a .227 wOBA.

On the pitching side, Cole Hamels entered June with just so-so numbers so far. He had a good 76:16 strikeout to walk rate, but 11 home runs in just 81 innings. Here is what a dominant month looks like. 45% ground balls, one home run allowed in 76.2 innings, 26 strikeouts, just six walks.


Gabe Of The Month

Everyone knows the Rays can hit. Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford… their offense is strong and deep. However, over the last month or so, their best hitters have been two guys named Gabe.

When Gabe Kapler was signed as a free agent over the winter to be Gabe Gross‘ platoon partner, the fellows over at DRaysBay gave the arrangement the nickname “Gabe Of The Day”. It didn’t start off so well, with a .321 wOBA between them in April representing a rather disappointing performance from Gabe Squared. As such, they lost playing time to Ben Zobrist, who was busting out in a big way (and hasn’t stopped since). However, when Akinori Iwamura’s injury forced Zobrist back to the infield, the Gabes responded in a big way.

Here are their June performances:

Gross: 68 PA, .333/.441/.491, .411 wOBA
Kapler: 32 PA, .444/.500/1.148, .632 wOBA

The Gabe Of The Day platoon put up a .482 wOBA in June, while playing their usual excellent defense in the outfield. For comparison, Albert Pujols has a .478 wOBA on the season.

On the season, Gross and Kapler have combined for +2.3 wins so far this year. If we do the ever so popular morphing thing and treat them as one player (Grapler?), that would rank them 5th in baseball among right fielders in win value, behind Justin Upton, Ichiro, Nelson Cruz, and Hunter Pence. Not bad company for a couple of platoon outfielders picked up on the cheap.


A Perfect Prospect: Brandon Hynick

It was a perfect night for Colorado Rockies triple-A hurler Brandon Hynick. The right-hander threw a perfect game last night in the second game of a double-header with Portland. The San Diego Padres’ affiliate erupted for 10 runs and 13 hits in the first game, before being quieted in the second contest.

Hynick threw 66 of his 80 pitches for strikes in the seven-inning game (each game during minor league double-headers are always seven innings in length). He relied heavily on his defense, while inducing nine ground-ball outs and six fly-ball outs. He also struck out six batters. Although the Portland team did not field a prospect-heavy lineup, it still featured players with big-league experience such as Drew Macias and Val Pascucci, who also played in Japan.

On the season, Hynick has allowed 85 hits in 90 innings or work, while posting a walk rate of 2.82 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of just 4.55 K/9. The 24-year-old is a former 2006 eighth-round selection out of Birmingham-Southern University. He works mainly in the upper-80s with his fastball, while also utilizing a curveball, changeup and his newly-developed cutter.

His best season came in 2007 at the high-A level when he went 16-5 with a 2.52 ERA (3.26 FIP). Hynick allowed just 170 hits in 182.1 innings of work, while posting rates of 1.53 BB/9 and 6.71 K/9.

Due to his modest fastball and fly-ball tendencies (he’s also seen his K/9 rate drop for four straight seasons), Hynick is probably not suited to pitching at the Major League level in Colorado. Based on his recent success – he has a 5-3 record and 2.60 ERA in his last 10 starts – Colorado may be able to get more value out of Hynick in a trade to help the club take a run at the National League wild card.

Playing in a very good hitter’s park and league, Hynick has shown that he has more than enough ability to succeed in the upper levels of professional baseball. He’s been the most successful starting pitcher on the Colorado Springs staff this year and he should fit in nicely on a National League club’s MLB roster as a No. 4 starter.


Two Very Different Cutters

On the surface Mariano Rivera and Mark DiFelice should be two of the most similar pitchers in the game. They are both right-handed relief pitchers who throw a cutters almost exclusively, over 90% of the time. No other pitcher throws the cutter that often, and only a handful of pitchers throw any one pitch close to as often as Rivera and DiFelice throw their cutters. But there is a startling difference between the two: DiFelice has one of the largest platoon splits of any pitcher, while Rivera has a reverse platoon split. Two pitchers throwing the same type of pitch almost exclusively and they are at opposite ends of the platoon split spectrum. Obviously there must be something very different about their cutters.

The most obvious difference is velocity. Rivera throws one of the fastest cutters in the game working in the low 90s, while DiFelice one of the slowest working in the low 80s. I am not sure how velocity influences the platoon split.

The movement of the two cutters is also different.

cut_mov

Both cutters have positive horizontal movement (tailing away from RHBs), which is uncommon for cutters. There is some overlap, but, generally, Rivera’s cutter has more ‘rise’ and slightly more horizontal tail.

Here is a breakdown of their cutters by some different metrics against RHBs and LHBs.

+-----------------+--------+--------+
| Rivera Cutter   |    RHB |    LHB |
+-----------------+--------+--------+
| Run Value       | -0.018 | -0.032 |
| In Zone         |  0.513 |  0.508 |
| O-Swing Rate    |  0.360 |  0.373 |
| Whiff Rate      |  0.260 |  0.188 |
| Pop Out per BIP |  0.123 |  0.133 |
| BABIP           |  0.299 |  0.245 |
+-----------------+--------+--------+

Rivera’s cutter is great against lefties and righties, and here you can see its incredible reverse platoon split (the run value is the average change in run expectancy after the pitch, so negative is good for the pitcher). Interesting the reverse split does not come from strikeout or walk rates (Rivera strikes out more RHBs and walks about the same), but from balls in play. Somehow balls in play off his cutter from lefties have a higher pop out rate and much lower BABIP than from righties.

+-----------------+--------+--------+
| DiFelice Cutter |    RHB |    LHB |
+-----------------+--------+--------+
| Run Value       | -0.031 |  0.015 |
| In Zone         |  0.550 |  0.550 |
| O-Swing Rate    |  0.383 |  0.330 |
| Whiff Rate      |  0.373 |  0.216 |
| Pop Out per BIP |  0.188 |  0.077 |
| BABIP           |  0.200 |  0.333 |
+-----------------+--------+--------+

DiFelice’s cutter against righties is amazing: huge o-swing (percent of pitches out of the zone swung at), whiff (percent of swung at pitches that are missed) and pop-out rates. But unlike Rivera things fall apart against lefties, with each of these rates dropping dramatically.

Next I checked the location of their cutters in the strike zone versus right-handed and left-handed batters.

loc_cutter

I think this is the key. Rivera works both edges of the strike zone against both lefties and righties. Since he can routinely place pitches on either edge his cutter can be successful against both. DiFelice, on the other hand, pounds his ‘sinking’ cutter down-and-away against righties. It seems that because of his cutter’s ‘sinking’ and tailing away movement (compared to a normal fastball) righties routinely swing at these pitches out of the zone. And even if they make contact the pitches are all down-and-away where most hitters can generate little power. Lefties, though, could generate tons of power from this down-and-in location and it looks like he cannot locate the pitch down-and-away against lefties. Instead most of his pitches to lefties are in the heart of the plate, not a good place for a low-80s cutter.

So it looks like the major difference is the ability to locate coupled with speed. Rivera can hit both edges routinely against both righties and lefties with his blazing cutter and somehow the pitch depresses lefties BABIP, which results in his reverse platoon splits. DiFelice can routinely locate the pitch down-and-away to righties, but has no place to go against lefties other than right down the middle.