When the Nationals signed Adam Dunn over the winter to a 2 year, $20 million contract, the reaction from the sabermetric community was almost unanimously positive towards the move for Washington. For a fraction of his original asking price, they got the guy who had become something of a poster boy for the kind of player that statistical analysts have been claiming is undervalued for years. The walks and power skillset produces a lot of runs, and Dunn has a master’s degree in the walks and power skillset.

When the Nationals acquired Nyjer Morgan yesterday, the reaction from the sabermetric community was almost unanimously negative towards the move for Washington. He was routinely called a no-power fourth outfielder, easily replaceable, and a 29-year-old with no upside. The Nationals were destroyed for giving up on a “talent” like Lastings Milledge to acquire Morgan. Analysts I have quite a bit of respect for, like Keith Law, Dan Szymborski, and our own R.J. Anderson, hailed this as an easy win for the Pirates, as none of them see much value in Morgan.

Here’s the problem. Nyjer Morgan and Adam Dunn are nearly equals in value, and the polar reactions from the sabermetric crowd puts the blindspots that have been developed over the last 10-15 years on full display.

Let’s just break down the differences by role.

Hitting: Dunn has a massive advantage here, obviously. ZIPS projects a .394 wOBA going forward, which would allow him to finish the season as 37 runs better than a league average hitter. That’s really good. ZIPS projects Morgan for a .307 wOBA, which would lead him to finish the season as eight runs below average with the bat. Dunn is 40 to 45 runs better with the bat than Morgan is. It’s a big difference.

Baserunning: Despite comparing a beefy slugger to one of the fastest guys in baseball, the gap here is actually fairly small. By Dan Fox’s EQBRR, Dunn averages about -2 runs per year on the basepaths, while Morgan has totaled +2 runs in his one season’s worth of playing time. For all his speed, he hasn’t figured out how to steal bases effectively yet, so he hasn’t been able to maximize the value of his feet. There’s still a difference here, though, of about 4 runs per season in Morgan’s favor.

Defense: On Dunn, there really isn’t much of an argument. He’s legitimately the worst defensive player in baseball that is still allowed to wear a glove regularly. Since 2005, his UZR totals have been -18.8, -14.9, -18.8, -28.0, and -14.1 (in half a season!). That spans three teams and four ballparks, so it’s not like the context is causing Dunn to look bad in the field. Morgan, on the other hand, runs like he stole something, and covers all kinds of ground in the prcoess. His +15.4 UZR in LF/RF and +11.9 UZR in CF in partial seasons of playing time are amazingly awesome.

We have to use a fairly heavy regression for Morgan’s defensive projection, however, given that we only have one season’s worth of data. Giving 1/3 weighting to his current numbers and 2/3 weighting to a regression back to league average, we end up with Morgan as a +10 defender in CF. This is probably too strong a regression, but I’m trying to err on the side of caution with defensive data.

If Dunn is a -20 LF, and Morgan is a +10 CF, then the defensive difference between the two is 30 runs plus a five run positional adjustment, for a total of 35 runs. And honestly, I’m being kind to Dunn and harsh to Morgan – the reality could easily be -25 for Dunn and +15 for Morgan. But, we’ll go conservative for now.

Hitting: Dunn, +45
Baserunning, Morgan, +4
Defense, Morgan, +35

Total: Dunn, +6

The gap between Dunn and Morgan, going forward, is expected to be about half a win per season if you use conservative estimates of their respective defensive value.

I’m sorry, but there’s no way that the response from the sabermetric community around these two moves matches that reality. If paying Adam Dunn $10 million per season to be a +2.5 win player is a good idea, then paying Nyjer Morgan $400,000 to be a +2 win player is a great idea. There is no world in which Dunn’s production and salary is more valuable than Morgan’s production and salary. You could acquire 100 Lastings Milledge’s for the amount of money that Dunn is getting to be the big, power hitting equal of Morgan.

There’s just no way around the real conclusion – the sabermetric community, for the most part, has a blindspot when it comes to players with defensive skills at the extremes of the spectrum. Given the cost differences, Morgan is clearly a more valuable asset than Dunn, yet his acquisition is mocked while Dunn’s is celebrated.

Baseball is not just about who can hit the ball further. It’s time we stopped evaluating players on their offensive worth alone.

It’s All-Star time around the minors, a time for scouts and fans alike to head out and see firsthand a collection of the minors’ top prospects. This morning I want to look at players who waived bye-bye to their prospect status a long time ago. While there is no Quad-A level, there players with the Quad-A label, and this is my collection of this year’s Quad-A All Stars. The qualifications are straightforward: the player must be at least 27, in AAA and must be one of the leagues top performers.

Some of these players may be current call-ups, which doesn’t disqualify them from the list, because let’s face it, it won’t be long before they’re on the next bus back to the minors.

Catcher

Eliezer Alfonzo, 30 years old, Padres, .306/.323/.565. Alfonzo actually filled in somewhat admirably as the Giants every day catcher after Mike Matheny went down with a concussion in 2006, but he’s been doing his thing in the minors ever since. Alfonzo has always shown some decent pop in the minors, but is as free of a swinger as they come. Over his 12 year minor league career, he’s walked in just 4% of his plate appearances.

First Base

Oscar Salazar, 31, Orioles, .372/.417/.542. Salazar is someone who might just shed his Quad-A label this year. The Venezuelan born player was tucked away in the Mexican League for awhile before coming back to affiliated baseball, and is currently hitting well for Baltimore, in albeit a couple dozen at-bats. His ZiPS projection calls for a respectable .351 wOBA for the season. Contact is the name of his game.

Second Base

Craig Stansberry, 27, Padres, .309/.393/.435. Thin crop at second base, I almost went with Andy Phillips but I guess he recently went over to Japan.

Shortstop

Mike McCoy, 28, Rockies, .343/.443/.453, 25 steals in 28 attempts. McCoy came up through the Cardinal organization before being signed by Baltimore as a minor league free agent. He was released mid-season last year, and hit .343/.391/.507 in 140 at-bats for Colorado Springs. McCoy evidently enjoys the thin air, it’s not only helped him put up some gaudy batting numbers, but rejuvenated his legs. McCoy stole a career high 30 bases in 129 games in 2006, and looks to be well on his way to beat his own personal mark.

Third Base

Hector Luna, 29, Dodgers, .353/.420/.657. Luna was plucked from the Cleveland organization before being selected in the Rule 5 draft by the Cardinals in 2004. St. Louis sent him back to Cleveland in 2006 for Ronnie Belliard, a player who was just a weird fit in St. Louis. Luna’s been more of a defense-first player coming up through the minors, but he never lived up to his rep. He’s never hit over 11 home-runs in his career, minors or majors, but now he’s hitting 13. Albuquerque can help a player out like that.

Outfielders

Shelley Duncan, 29, Yankees, .290/.367/.609. Had his Kevin Maas like time in the sun, and some silly controversies along the way.

Ryan Langerhans, 29, Mariners, .278/.371/.488. Recently traded for Mike Morse. Langerhans seems to be a favorite in the stat-head community for his decent walk rates and most of all, his nifty UZR numbers in left field. Langerhans is sort of a poor man’s Nyjer Morgan, if there is such a thing.

Dee Brown, 31, Dodgers, .303/.364/.567. Dee Brown can dunk a basketball with his eyes covered. No, wait. Once upon a time, Dee Brown looked like a superstar in the making. He was a first round draft pick of the Royals and was absolutely crushing the minors at a very young age. He never adjusted to the majors leagues for some reason or another and has been a journeyman ever since. It would be a nice story if he ever did hit his way into a regular gig, even if it were for a season or two.

There are other names I debated on putting on the team, but these are the players who made my final cut. Who would be on your Quad-A All-Star team?

Milton Bradley, Jason Giambi and Pat Burrell were perhaps the three most enticing DH options on the free agent market this past winter. Nearly at the halfway point of the season, and not a one of them possesses a positive win value yet.

Bradley is obviously not a DH. Part of his negative value is tied into below average fielding, but his hitting has disappointed as well. Comparing any of Bradley’s future offensive seasons to 2008 is going to result in some lopsided differences. Bradley is walking about as much as you should expect based on multiple years of data, striking out about the same, but his power has disappeared. Coming into the season only Oliver projected an ISO sub-.200 for the 31-year-old, and now ZiPS projects Bradley to finish with a ISO of .197. Score one for Brian Cartwright’s system if Bradley’s power fails to return.

More of a first baseman than a DH, GIambi’s defensive value discounts his total value, but so does his below average offense. A .324 wOBA is awful by previous Giambi standards. In fact, it would rank as the second lowest of the figure in his career, behind only 2004 with the Yankees. This year is starting to resemble 2004 on multiple levels. Giambi’s walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO, and BAIBP are almost identical. Seriously, check them out:

BB% – 15.1/15.9
K% – 23.5/24.6
ISO – .170/.172
BABIP – .226/.224

ZiPS forecasts a bit of a bounce back, but I think the Athletics were expecting a bit better than a league average hitter when they reconciled with the slugger.

Burrell is the only real DH of the bunch, and the pressure of such a task was enough to strain his neck. Joe Maddon did let Burrell mosey in the outfield for one game, but the rest of the time Burrell has been paid to walk, jog, and sit. A ridiculous drop in ISO is the main culprit for Burrell’s .309 wOBA. Players generally don’t drop nearly .200 points in one off-season, yet Burrell is on pace for such.

Eric talked about not looking for reasons for unexpected failure/success yesterday, and that applies here. It’s pretty unlikely that Bradley and Burrell both saw their power skills decline this rapidly within one off-season. If you can trick someone in your fantasy league into thinking either is ‘done’, by all means pull the trigger.

Nearly half way through the season, I thought I would check in on the defensive numbers once more. This time, I took the team totals from 2008 and so far through 2009 and going by UZR per inning, rank the teams in order from most improved to least.

Fair warning, a half season worth of UZR data is not that big of a sample size in which to draw good conclusions from. That being said, it is a fun little exercise. THe numbers below are differences in UZR, projected out to a full seasons worth of 2009.

Tigers 97.9
Pirates 89.8
Reds 89.7
Rangers 84.7
Seattle 69.6
Dodgers 58.7
Dbacks 53.2
Yankees 28.2
Brewers 25.3
Giants 23.1
Rockies 6.9
Angels 5.5
Padres 2.7
Chi(A) 1.0
Chi(N) -2.6
Twins -6.6
Rays -10.0
StLouis -24.3
Braves -28.3
Toronto -28.5
Marlins -31.0
Oakland -31.9
Orioles -40.7
Royals -44.7
Astros -46.1
Indians -51.0
Philly -57.7
Mets -70.1
RedSox -80.3
Wash -81.7

The Nationals have boasted a better than average line up and pitching that is not too terrible. Wonder why they are on pace to add Bryce Harper to Stephen Strasburg next June? Defense. Conversely, improved defense is playing a key role in helping the Rangers and Mariners hang around in the AL West and it is giving the Tigers a lead in the AL Central.

Keep in mind that these are just differences from 2008. The Rays are ten runs worse than they were last year, but they were tops in 2008 and are so far remaining atop the league in 2009 as well.