Archive for July, 2009

Double-A Leader Boards: The Pitchers

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in Strikeouts Per 9 Innings (K/9) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) among the three double-A leagues: the Eastern League, the Southern League and the Texas League. Unlike the hitters that we took a look at yesterday, the pitching leader boards are littered with legitimate prospects.

The Eastern League

Strikeouts Per 9 IP (K/9)

10.33- Marc Rzepczynski | LHP | Toronto

If you scan down this leader board, you’ll see that Rzepczynski’s K/9 rate is far and above tops in all of double-A, so it’s easy to understand why the southpaw is currently pitching (well) in Toronto. Along with his ability to miss bats, Rzepczynski is a ground-ball machine with his career ground-ball rate of 64.4%. If he improve his command a bit, watch out.

8.80- Ryan Mullins | LHP | Minnesota

Mullins was left unprotected in last year’s Rule 5 draft and I advocated for a team to take a flyer on the hurler as a potential LOOGY. He passed through the draft untouched, though, and is having another typical Mullins’ season (lots of hits, few walks, good K rate)… save for one key thing. Left-handed batters are creaming the southpaw this season to the tune of a .359 batting average.

8.12- Junichi Tazawa | RHP | Boston

For some reason, we just don’t hear a lot about Tazawa when people are rhyming off Boston’s pitching prospects. The right-hander is very quietly having an impressive first year in North America at the double-A level. The 23-year-old Japanese hurler doesn’t have one dominating pitch, but he has command of four average-to-above-average pitches.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

2.64- Marc Rzepczynski | LHP | Toronto

See above.

3.07- Zach McAllister | RHP | New York AL

Like Tazawa above, McAllister is a pitching prospect that does not get a ton of press because nothing about him really jumps off the page. If you look at his statistics and scouting report as a whole, though, you can see that he has the makings of a No. 3 starter, who can provide innings while not hurting himself with too many walks or hits allowed.

3.10- Jeanmar Gomez | RHP | Cleveland

Gomez is one of the fastest rising pitching prospects in baseball, which is good news for Cleveland, an organization that has a reputation for producing pitching prospects with good pitchability but below-average stuff (Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, etc.). Gomez knows how to pitch and he has the repertoire to vault himself into elite prospect status; He should be a solid No. 2 or 3 big-league starter.

3.24- Reidier Gonzalez | RHP | Toronto

Since we’ve already touched on Rzepczynski and his fine minor league numbers, we’ll take a look at his teammate Gonzalez, who is another ground-ball machine but from the right side. Even though he can dial the fastball up to 94 mph on occasion, the Cuba native does not strike out a ton of batters (6.43 K/9). He does, though, have good control and has allowed just four homers this season and 16 in the past four years. The 24-year-old is just 5’9” so his future is probably in the bullpen, although his frame has been durable so far.

The Southern League

Strikeouts Per 9 IP (K/9)

8.44- Jay Jackson | RHP | Chicago NL

A two-way player at Furman University, Jackson has really blossomed as a pitcher now that he’s devoted his full-time energies to the role. He’s allowed just 68 hits in 80 innings, while also showing respectable control (3.94 BB/9) and good strikeout numbers, given his experience level.

7.95- Travis Chick | RHP | Los Angeles NL

Chick has bounced around a few organizations, but he’s still just 25 years old, so there is some potential in the right-hander – most likely as a reliever. The former Marlins’ draft pick has been stuck in double-A for four straight seasons but he’s had a few trips up to triple-A, and a brief taste of Major League life (three games with Seattle in 2006).

7.79- Travis Wood | LHP | Cincinnai

The Little Rock, Arkansas native has had a very up-and-down career since being taken out of high school in the second round of the 2005 amateur draft. The southpaw posted a 7.09 ERA in 17 double-A starts last season, but Wood appears to have mastered the league this year with solid strikeout rate, good control and a 1.21 ERA (2.75 FIP).

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

2.75- Travis Wood | LHP | Cincinnai

See above.

3.28- Justin Souza | RHP | Seattle

Souza was recently traded from Seattle to Oakland for part-time big leaguer Jack Hannahan. The 23-year-old had solid numbers for the Seattle organization but he’s been hit hard in two starts for Oakland’s double-A affiliate. He has the upside of a strike-throwing middle reliever.

3.38- Scott Diamond | LHP | Atlanta

Diamond, a Canadian, has produced two straight good seasons, which is impressive considering the fact that Atlanta signed him as a non-drafted amateur in 2007. His fastball is nothing special, but he knows how to pitch and he has good control. Diamond needs to sharpen his command a bit so he doesn’t leave quite so many pitches over the heart of the plate. He also needs to get right-handers out a little more consistently (.324 average).

3.52- John Ely | RHP | Chicago AL

Ely has had a very consistent, albeit not-so-flashy, season. The right-hander has average stuff so he allows a fair number of hits, but he limits the walks and does a good job of keeping the ball in the park. Ely is also durable, which could make him a solid No. 3 or 4 starter in the Majors.

The Texas League

Strikeouts Per 9 IP (K/9)

8.16- Kasey Kiker | LHP | Texas

As you probably know by now, the Texas organization is blessed with pitching prospects and Kiker has advanced through the system extremely quickly. The 21-year-old southpaw has been effective against both left-handed (.192) and right-handed (.229) hitters. One knock on him, though, (aside from his 5’10” frame) is that he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which could hurt him at The Ballpark in Arlington.

7.92- Esmil Rogers | RHP | Colorado

Rogers has really emerged this season. The right-hander has improved his walk rate each of the past three seasons to a stellar 1.81 BB/9 in double-A this year. He’s also seen his strikeout rate rise each of the past four seasons to 7.92 K/9 in 2009. Rogers was recently promoted to triple-A.

7.81- Samuel Deduno | RHP | Colorado

Colorado has become a pitching development machine with the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, Rogers, Jhoulys Chacin, and Christian Friedrich, just to name a few. If Deduno can finally cash in on his potential, then the organization’s depth begins to shift from rich to ridiculous. After sitting out all of 2008 with an injury, Deduno, 25, has returned with a new focus, as well as improved control and a better understanding of pitching. He’s missed a lot of bats this season with just 56 hits allowed in 78.1 innings of work, which is impressive considering the league and his lengthy layoff.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

2.51- Esmil Rogers | RHP | Colorado
See above.

3.42- Polin Trinidad | LHP | Houston

Houston’s minor league system is far from bursting with prospects, so the emergence of Trinidad over the past two seasons is welcomed. The southpaw does not have electric stuff, but he throws strikes and has some deception in his delivery. He has a good pitcher’s frame, especially now that he’s added some muscle, and projects as a No. 4 starter or middle reliever.

3.50- Tommy Mendoza | RHP | Los Angeles AL

Medonza peaked as a prospect very early on in his career before getting derailed by injury and inconsistencies. The 21-year-old right-hander is having a respectable season, although he’s allowed 100 hits in 97.1 innings of work. His strikeout rate is also just 5.73 K/9, but he’s showing solid control with a rate of 2.31 BB/9.

3.55- Graham Godfrey | RHP | Oakland

Toronto pretty much stole Marco Scutaro away from the Oakland Athletics (one of GM J.P. Ricciardi’s few good trades). The A’s received Godfrey and right-hander Kristian Bell in return for the spark-plug shortstop and former utility player. Godfrey’s first year in the organization in 2008 was underwhelming, but he’s having a nice year this year in double-A and could find his way into a big-league bullpen.


Schmidt Happens

For the first time in two years, Jason Schmidt took the hill for the Dodgers last night. The first inning was a disaster, as he gave up three runs to the Reds, but he settled down after that and got through five innings. They couldn’t have been expecting much more, given the long road he’s had to travel to get back from arm problems that derailed his career. But what should the Dodgers expect from Schmidt going forward?

Brooks Baseball’s Pitch F/x log shows that Schmidt’s fastball averaged just under 87 MPH and topped out at 89.5. His change-up was 82-85, showing little separation in velocity, though his 71-73 MPH curve gave him a change of speed pitch.

All of these velocities are way off of Schmidt’s days in San Francisco. In 2006, his last healthy year, his fastball averaged 92, his change-up 87, and his curve 78. He’s lost nearly five MPH off all three of his pitches. Getting hurt sucks.

So, with his power gone, Schmidt’s simply not going to be able to rack up the strikeouts like he used to. He’s going to have to pound the strike zone, avoid walks, and count on balls in play finding gloves. The problem, though, is that Schmidt was up in the zone all night. Here’s the strikezone plot.

schmidt

The pitch-to-contact thing works with an 87 MPH fastball if you can command it and get a bunch of groundouts, but that’s nearly impossible when you’re pitching at the belt or higher. Not surprisingly, Schdmit only induced three ground balls last night, compared with 13 fly balls. You can’t get grounders by throwing an 87 MPH fastball up in the zone. That location worked when he threw 92 – not so much now.

If Schmidt is going to succeed in the majors, he’s going to have to re-invent himself. Try a two-seamer to get some sink on his fastball, pitch down in the zone, and try to become a strike thrower who lets his defense do the work. Because based on what he showed last night, the Jason Schmidt of old isn’t coming back, and he’s not going to get hitters out by trying to replicate his old game plan without the juice on his fastball.


Breaking Up the Band

Neil Huntington’s attempt to look like a nice guy ended up with him looking like a bit of a jerk, as details on the contract extensions for Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez came to light. I’m not here to suggest that giving long-term deals to two middle infielders over 30 years of age is a wise move, but the offer to Sanchez at least could be seen as borderline insulting.

Wilson’s offer was for 2-years, $8 million with an option for a third year. Sanchez’s offer covered two years, $10 million while also voiding his $8 million, 2010 vesting option if he attains to 600 plate appearances this year, which looks like a real possibility. Both offers were quickly shot down by the players, and there are some reports these offers were of the “take it or leave it” variety, not starting points to negotiations. So what is each player really worth?

Jack Wilson has been downright groovy with the glove this season, with an UZR of 11 and an UZR/150 of 19. The season prior he was worth 17 runs per 150 games. Hitting-wise, he’s been Jack Wilson with his usual .300 wOBA over 272 plate appearances. This season so far he has been worth 1.8 wins above replacement, making him well worth his hay. Considering past history, he is probably more like a 2-win player going forward, worth $9 million on the non-chilled free agent market. His $8.4 mil option is hardly a bargain, but is about right. With blue light specials being made for players of Adam Everett’s ilk being made over the winter, I can see the Buc’s desire to see if they can’t get a discount. It will be interesting to see what sort of a deal Wilson will get over the off-season.

Freddy Sanchez has already been worth nearly $12 million to the team just coming off of the break, double what he is getting paid now. Why on earth would he take a $3 million pay cut when all he has to do is stay in the lineup? Granted, Sanchez was terrible last year and it isn’t like he is without his foibles — he doesn’t run all that well, doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for much power. He’s been slightly above average in the field, with a career UZR/150 of 5. So maybe he is somewhat of an empty .300 hitter, but over his past three healthy seasons, his WAR totals have been 3.2, 4.8, 3.8 and now 2.6 this season. The man is hardly a $5 mil a year player.

It seems rather doubtful a team would be willing to pick up Wilson’s option, and he is not going to be a Type A or B free agent this winter. Wilson is still due about $3 mil for the rest of the season, so if the Pirates can get a “C” grade prospect or maybe two in a trade, Huntington should suck it up and say “yes”. Sanchez on the other hand could help a team not only win this season but the following, so the Pirates should be getting something shiny in return. Probably not a top 25 caliber prospect, but a nifty prospect to add to Huntington’s collection.

Pirate fans, brace yourselves for a new and much less-inspiring double play combo very soon.


Chris “K” Young

I talked briefly about Chris Young last night, but I wanted to cover him in more depth this morning. He’s an odd case. His peripheral numbers are essentially equal to B.J. Upton – 11% walks, 29% strikeouts – because of the difference in BABIP, the two have around 25 points separating their wOBA. Young’s strikeout rate is odd though, like Upton, he makes contact 75% of the time. He’s no Chris Davis or Miguel Olivo. The company Young holds is decent; Evan Longoria, Adrian Gonzalez, Mike Jacobs, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Adam LaRoche amongst others.

I took every batter within the 74-76% contact range, weighed their strikeout rate by plate appearances, and arrived at a figure of ~25%. As Matthew has noted elsewhere, the R^2 for strikeouts and contact% is 0.77 – pretty sturdy – which implies the other part of strikeout percentage is made up of called strikes. Is Young a sufferer of the called strikeouts? I decided use Z-Swing% and altered it for my usage so that it’s “Z-Take%”. Essentially (1-Z-Swing%) – hardcore, right? – and here is how those numbers break down:

Player Z-Take%
Kouzmanoff 22.8
I. Rodriguez 23.8
Ortiz 26.4
Ad. Jones 26.9
Soriano 28.6
Ad. Gonzalez 29.2
Ad. LaRoche 32.8
Kemp 32.9
C. Duncan 33.1
Jacobs 33.2
Longoria 33.8
Ibanez 36.3
B. Upton 37.5
Cameron 38.4
B. Anderson 39
C. Young 40.3

Young takes the most pitches in the zone, nearly 40%, while Cameron and Upton aren’t far behind. Those three – along with Mike Jacobs – make up the high water mark of the strikeouts. Jacobs is the leader of the pack and far less disciplined than the other three, which is why he strikes out 31% of the time. So, if Young is taking that many strikes, the questions that arise are: A) Why? B) Are they good strikes? I’m no Dave Allen or Harry Pavlidis, but I did have a look at Young’s zone this season in Excel.

chrisyoungzone

Quite a number of strikes are being called on the outside portion of the plate. So far outside, that Young is actually being called for strikes that aren’t really strikes at all. Notice the yellow lines are placed where the width of the zone ends, or is at least is supposed to. The pitches Young is getting called against him must be framed well. That’s something I would chock up as bad luck – in the same vein as receiving a favorable ball call or three dozen – more so than something Young could change.

So what’s the difference between Young and the guys striking out less? Probably nothing more than some umpire-based luck.


Game of the Week: 7/13-7/19

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It seems only fitting that in the same week Tony LaRussa sees his league come under fire for an intentional walk in the All-Star game, he finds himself on the receiving end of an IBB backfiring.

I’m talking about Saturday night’s game. Dan Haren had thrown seven beautiful innings against his former team, keeping them in check for one run and preserving a lead for the D-Backs. In the top of the eighth, two runners had reached with two outs as Josh Kinney entered the game to face Chris B. Young. With Haren scheduled to bat next, and the Cardinals having a heck of a time trying to hit him, LaRussa tried forcing A.J. Hinch’s hand by placing Young on base with four wide ones and taking his shot with a pinch hitter.

Hinch didn’t flinch, sending Haren to the plate to face Kinney. After taking the first three pitches low, Haren took strike one, a pitch on the inside corner. The next pitch sailed low again, and just like that Kinney had not only walked in a run, but done so by walking the pitcher of all players. The results suggest it was a silly move to walk Young, even if we don’t know what he would’ve done if pitched to regularly, but was the walk the right call anyways?

Using the methodology outlined in The Book we can answer that question. Page 312 holds the information we’re looking for. Essentially: if the pitcher is a weak hitter (meaning a wOBA of ~.115) then walking the number eight hitter with either runners on second and third or first and third is worth the walk. If the pitcher is a decent hitter (The Book says ~.220) then the walk is no longer worth it.

Dan Haren’s wOBA this season is a remarkably good .307. Last year’s was .237. Haren has proven that he’s decent with the stick despite his primary position. Young, who entered as a pinch hitter, only has a wOBA this season of .299. As much as I appreciate the thought put into game theory, LaRussa made the incorrect call by walking Young. Not just because the results worked against him, but because he made his pitcher face the better batter with the bases loaded.

If Haren’s affinity for pitching well hasn’t driven LaRussa to regret the Haren deal, his ability to hit decently may have.


2009 MLB Trade Value: Recap

The countdown is finally over – this afternoon, we unveiled the top five pieces in our annual Trade Value series. Since this is a recap post, here’s the whole list in one convenient spot.

1. Evan Longoria
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Justin Upton
4. Albert Pujols
5. Matt Wieters
6. Brian McCann
7. David Wright
8. Ryan Braun
9. Tim Lincecum
10. Chase Utley
11. Zack Greinke
12. Grady Sizemore
13. Dan Haren
14. Matt Kemp
15. Troy Tulowitzki
16. Joe Mauer
17. Felix Hernandez
18. Colby Rasmus
19. Adam Jones
20. Jose Reyes
21. B.J. Upton
22. Curtis Granderson
23. Justin Verlander
24. Stephen Strasburg
25. David Price
26. Jay Bruce
27. James Shields
28. Chad Billingsley
29. Clayton Kershaw
30. Josh Johnson
31. Dustin Pedroia
32. Ian Kinsler
33. Ubaldo Jimenez
34. Jon Lester
35. Nick Markakis
36. Josh Hamilton
37. Roy Halladay
38. Clay Buchholz
39. Jason Heyward
40. Tommy Hanson
41. Josh Beckett
42. Joba Chamberlain
43. Ryan Zimmerman
44. Max Scherzer
45. Adrian Gonzalez
46. Elvis Andrus
47. Robinson Cano
48. Cole Hamels
49. Jered Weaver
50. Prince Fielder

Honorable Mentions: Ben Zobrist, Kevin Youkilis, Javier Vazquez, Gordon Beckham, Pablo Sandoval.

The biggest riser from last year? Matt Kemp, who went from unranked (whoops) to #14. I just missed the boat on him last year. The biggest faller was Brandon Webb, who dropped off the list after ranking #14 last year. Shoulder problems that cost you a full season without a firm diagnosis will do that to you, especially as you head towards free agency.

Overall, I’m happy with the list. After receiving some feedback, there are a few things I’d change, however. Unfortunately, I was unaware of the clause in Troy Tulowitzki’s contract allowing him to void his deal if he’s traded. That’s a pretty nasty contract kicker, and one I really should have been aware of. That’s my fault, and had I known about that, he would have ranked lower, certainly.

However, I did find that the uproar about his true talent level exposed the fact that Tulowitzki is a pretty underrated player by a lot of the readers here. He’s a 24-year-old shortstop with above average defense and power who has significantly upped his walk rate this season. Players with his skillset are remarkably valuable. We love WAR around here, obviously, but this is not a list of what players have accomplished to date, so quoting Tulowitzki’s inferior WAR to other players simply doesn’t work as an argument about his present trade value. He’s a really, really good up the middle player headed for his prime. There aren’t many guys out there with his projected future value.

A lot of the “why isn’t this guy on the list?” questions came from fans of National League teams with good-but-not-great young pitchers. Yovanni Gallardo, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain, and Jordan Zimmermann are all valuable assets, but trying to make an argument for them based on their non-league adjusted numbers simply doesn’t work. Put simply, the National League is vastly inferior to the AL right now, and the lack of a DH allows for pitchers who pitch in the senior circuit to post superficially better numbers than their AL peers. Simply put, you stick a guy like Chamberlain in the NL, and he’d look like Cy Young. Sorry, NL fans, but your pitchers aren’t as good as you think.

And, finally, I guess I should address the whole Sandoval thing. As I said in the Honorable Mentions post, I like Sandoval – the kid can hit. But based on the comments early on in the series, Giant fans need to pull back on the hyperbole train. 503 major league career plate appearances is simply not anything close to enough to establish his current batting line as his true talent level. There’s a reason ZIPS projects him for a .357 wOBA going forward despite his tremendous start to the 2009 season – he simply cannot maintain a .360 batting average on balls in play over the long term, which is the driving force behind his .400 wOBA this year.

The foundation of his offensive performance to date is, unfortunately, not a repeatable skill. For a player with that kind of developed body, you simply can’t project future growth like you can with most 22-year-olds (where strength is tied to added muscle as the body develops, which simply won’t happen with Kung Fu Panda), so there’s less upside here than with most players his age. He’s a good player, not a great one.

That’s it for this year’s Trade Value series. Hope you enjoyed it. We’ll do it again next year.


Double-A Leader Boards: The Hitters

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in batting average and home runs among the three double-A leagues: the Eastern League, the Southern League and the Texas League. You’ve probably heard a lot of these names before, but some of them are fairly new, so let’s see if they’re prospects or suspects.

The Eastern League

Batting Average

(.342) – Brock Bond | 2B | San Francisco

A former 24th round selection out of the University of Missouri, Bond doesn’t really hit with enough power to play everyday, especially with his poor instincts on the base paths; He’s been success stealing bases just 11 times in 24 attempts. With that said, the 23-year-old second base is leading the league in hitting and has a career batting average of .326. San Francisco should be proactive and begin getting him experience at other positions because he has the makings of an offensive-minded utility player.

(.338) – Josh Thole | C | New York (NL)

A converted catcher, Thole has improved enough behind the plate to be an average defensive catcher. Offensively, the left-handed prospect is a gifted hitter who walks more than he strikes out (1.32 BB/K) and hits for a high average. Thole does lack power in his bat, which limits his ceiling a little bit. However, you won’t find many left-handed hitting catchers in the Majors that can hit .300.

(.333) – Michael Taylor | OF | (Philadelphia)

Taylor has really turned himself into a prospect over the past two seasons. The Stanford grad is 6’6′ 250 pounds but he stolen 18 bases in 22 attempts, to go along with his excellent batting average and 15 home runs. Perhaps in an effort to showcase Taylor, Philadelphia promoted him to triple-A, where he’s now played four games. There are questions about how much of his power is usable, in-game power.

Home Runs

(19) – Brian Dopirak | 1B | Toronto

Rescued off the Cubs’ scrap heap, Dopirak has blossomed with a new swing and approach at the plate. He slugged 29 homers last season for the Toronto organization, while playing mainly in high-A. This season in double-A, Dopirak, 25, continued hitting well with the league lead in homers, as well as a .308 batting average. He’s now been promoted to triple-A, where he should enjoy hitting in the Pacific Coast League.

(17) – Ryan Strieby | 1B/LF | Detroit

Strieby may have hit the quietest 29 home runs in 2008. Taken in the fourth round in 2006 out of the University of Kentucky, the 23-year-old has slowly made himself into a top prospect with his combination of power and ability to hit for a respectable average (.310 in 2009).

(17) – Brennan Boesch | OF | Detroit

Taken a round earlier than Strieby and out of the University of California, Boesch’s first two full seasons in the minors were underwhelming. He’s having a breakout season in terms of power this year, although the batting average is suspect (.260) and he rarely walks (.300 OBP).

The Southern League

Batting Average

(.347) – Chris Heisey | OF | Cincinnati

Heisey has received a fair bit of attention this season for really turning himself into a legitimate big-league prospect. Drafted out of a small college in 2006, the 24-year-old outfielder showed an ability to hit for average and power, while also stealing 13 bases in 14 attempts. Heisey is now hitting .314 in 18 triple-A games.

(.328) – Desmond Jennings | OF | Tampa Bay

Despite missing almost all of 2008 due to an injury, Jennings is one of the hottest hitters in the minors. He’s screaming for a promotion to triple-A with a .485 batting average, 12 walks and seven stolen bases in his last 10 games. For the season, he’s nabbed 36 bases in 41 attempts.

(.317) – Darwin Barney | SS | Chicago (NL)

Selected in the fourth round of the 2007 draft out of the Oregon State University, Barney had a modest first full season in the Majors in 2008. Aggressively promoted to double-A in 2009, the infielder responded with a solid batting average. He doesn’t hit for power or steal bases, so Barney is probably a long-term utility player. He’s currently hitting .170 in 14 triple-A games.

Home Runs

(20) – Greg Halman | OF | Seattle

Halman has troubles hitting the broadside of a barn with the barrel of his bat (He has a strikeout rate of 41.8%), but when he makes contact that barn will have some serious hurt. Halman is loaded with athletic ability and tons of potential but it’s disappointing that Seattle has let him get to double-A with this approach at the plate (0.14 BB/K). He makes Russell Branyan look like Ichiro.

(17) – Stefan Gartrell | OF | Chicago (AL)

Three of the Top 7 home run hitters in the Southern League come from the same Birmingham squad but only catcher Tyler Flowers is a legitimate prospect. Gartrell, 25, has come a long way since being drafted out of the University of San Francisco in the 31st round as a senior in 2006. He’s repeating double-A after spending all of 2008 in Birmingham, as well.

(17) – David Cook | OF | Chicago (AL)

Cook has been kicking around the system since being drafted out of the University of Miami (Ohio) in 2003. Now 28, the outfielder is having a nice season while providing veteran leadership to the organization’s young prospects. He was recently promoted to triple-A.

The Texas League

Batting Average

(.358) – Jordan Parraz | OF | Royals

An astute pick-up out of the Astros system prior to the 2009 season, Parraz has broken out with the bat, especially in terms of average. The 24-year-old moved very slowly through the Astros system, despite being a former third-round pick with a lot of promise. His base running (33 steals in ’07) seems to have dried up with just four in 12 attempts this season. He’s probably a long-term fourth outfielder with a powerful arm, but he should be challenged with a promotion to triple-A.

(.353) – Adrian Cardenas | IF | Oakland

Cardenas’ season has had a fair number of ups and downs. The infielder had a nice beginning to his season in double-A before a quick promotion to triple-A. His struggles in the senior league led to a demotion back to double-A where he’s dominated the competition. The organization is obviously hesitant to send him back up, but he has little left to prove in double-A with the bat (defense is another story).

(.331) – Tyler Henley | OF | St. Louis

An eighth round selection out of Rice University in 2007, Henley has flown under the radar throughout his entire pro career. The left-handed hitter has a career line of .296/.362/.474 but he doesn’t hit for enough power to be a Major League regular.

Home Runs

(16) – Collin DeLome | OF | Houston

DeLome, a fifth round pick out of Lamar University, has exceeded expectations but he’s probably not going to make enough contact to be a regular big-league outfielder. His career batting average is .266 and he’s taken just 22 walks in 2009, compared to 86 Ks. Teams can always use left-handed power, though, so the 23-year-old could eventually work his way into a platoon situation in Houston.

(16) – Chad Tracy | 1B | Texas

Selected out of Pepperdine University in the third round of the 2006 draft, Tracy had a lot more value before moving from catcher to first base (and left field). Now, he projects to be a quad-A slugger, who could eek out a Ross Gload type of career.

(16) – Corey Smith | 1B | Kansas City

A former top prospect (and former first-round pick) of the Cleveland Indians, Smith just keeps plugging along in hopes of realizing his big-league dream. After hitting 26 homers in double-A for the Angels organization in 2008, Smith is tied for the league lead at the same level in 2009. He still doesn’t hit for average and he still doesn’t have much patience at the plate… but you have to applaud his perseverance.


2009 MLB Trade Value: #5-#1

Finishing off our trade value rankings with the five most valuable assets in baseball. We’ll recap the top 50 and answer a few questions in the wrap-up post this afternoon.

#5: Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore: 0.3 WAR

Don’t freak out about his first 120 trips to the plate. He’s still a switch-hitting catcher with every offensive tool you could wish upon a player his size. He’s going to be the Orioles best hitter sooner rather than later, and his upside is off the charts. Baltimore has some great pieces to build around, but he’s the best of the bunch. Joe Mauer with power might be too lofty of an expectation, but a switch-hitting Brian McCann with a few more walks is still an amazing talent.

#4: Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis: 5.4 WAR

The best player in baseball, hands down. He’s an eight win player every year and he just keeps getting better. What else is there to say? He’s one of the best hitters of all time, and we’ll tell our grandchildren that we got to see him play. The fact that he’s only under contract through 2011, with $32 million due to him over those two years, means that this is as high as he can go, but he’s about as untouchable as any player on earth. He is the definition of a franchise player.

#3: Justin Upton, RF, Arizona: 3.2 WAR

Already one of the best players in the league at age 21. We’ve already talked about the pedigree of players who are this good at such a young age, and the career arc for this kind of player usually leads to multiple All-Star games and a good shot at Cooperstown. The bat is that special, and he’s a pretty decent right fielder to boot. As a pre-arb player, he won’t make any serious cash until the 2011 season, and he’s under club control through 2013. Enjoy him, Arizona.

#2: Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida: 4.2 WAR

The offense has been incredible since he arrived, but questions lingered about his position. He’s answered those with significant improvements in his glovework at shortstop to the point where he’s a decent defender at the hardest spot on the field to cover. Combine that with consistent top shelf hitting in a 25-year-old, and Ramirez has become a true superstar. The contract extension he signed keeps him under lock and key through 2014, and while the salaries aren’t a bargain, they’re not even close to his true value.

#1: Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay: 3.9 WAR

I might just have to retire his jersey if I keep doing this list going forward, because unless he gets hurt or takes a big step back, it’s hard to see anyone passing him for the next five years. His on field value puts him in the discussion with the best players in the game, but his contract is just so unbelievably team friendly that no one else comes close to his overall value to their club. Ramirez, for instance, will make $64 million from 2010 to 2014 – Longoria will make $21 million, and then the Rays will have two more options that would keep him in TB at $11 million per year for 2015 and 2016. Crazy. He’s going to be paid like a league average back-end starting pitcher through a potential Hall-Of-Fame prime. Agents, this is the template of what not to do with your best client going forward.


The Felipe Lopez Trade

Yesterday the Diamondbacks traded Felipe Lopez to the Brewers for a pair of minor leaguers — outfielder Cole Gillespie and right-handed reliever Roque Mercedes.

Well out of contention, Arizona dumps about $2 million worth of salary while netting a couple of “C” grade prospects in the process. Cole Gillespie is your prototypical tweener. He’s already 25-years old, his offensive profile fits better in center field but his lack of defensive skills limit him to an outfield corner. He did put together a strong offensive season (.396 wOBA) while battling a toe injury last year for Double-A Huntsville, but his production has been way down this year (.330 wOBA). Over the past two seasons he’s shown some moderate power and good patience. While he’s scuffled recently due to some injuries, he’s an MLB-ready fourth outfielder. As for Mercedes, he has a decent fastball/slider combo and has moved from starting to relief this past season. He’s closing games for the Brewers’ High-A affiliate and will be 23 this winter.

You would think that the quartet of Casey McGehee, Craig Counsell, Bill Hall and Mat Gamel would be enough options for second/third base, but apparently the plan is to send Gamel back to Triple-A. After terrorizing Pacific Coast League pitchers, Gamel has been striking out in 40% of his plate appearances in the majors and could stand to benefit from some more seasoning back in the minors. ZiPS projects a .331 wOBA for Lopez the rest of the season. Lopez should never play shortstop, but he won’t hurt the Brewers defensively playing second base (career UZR/150 -0.4 at second, -11.2 at short). All in all, he looks like a 1 WAR player the rest of the way.

For a minor splash, I can’t help but wonder about some of the ripples this deal could cause. The perplexing J.J. Hardy could shown the door soon, and Counsell could slide over to short while Alcides Escobar put the finishing touches on his game in the minors. Right now at least, it looks like McGehee/Counsell will form a platoon at the hot corner. There’s also some speculation that this is a preliminary move for the Brew Crew to make a move for some pitching.

This is a small win-small win deal if there ever was one. Arizona dumps some salary, the Brewers get a little better offensively while allowing their top hitting prospect to gain a little more experience.


Baseball’s Sisyphus

At some point I’m going to stop acknowledging the silly things the Royals do. Today is not that point. Over the weekend, the Royals had the lead entering the eighth three times; which is to say they had the lead in each game with six outs to go. They trailed entering the ninth in each of those games. That’s not the reason for confusion, the fact that Joakim Soria failed to throw a single pitch is.

Soria did not pitch in the All-Star game, but did pitch last Sunday. That means he’s received an entire week’s worth of rest. Being cautious with an important arm is fine, but this is the same organization that rushed Gil Meche back into a 120-pitch outing shortly after returning from ‘dead arm’. This isn’t about ensuring health or taking precautionary measures. It’s about being stuck in the 1990s way of thinking. If this series has taught me anything, it is that apparently the only inning the Royals are going to use their best reliever is the ninth. Look at these three viable entry points for Soria during the series:

On Friday, Juan Cruz retired two batters quickly, then allowed a single and homerun to back-to-back batters. This is the most acceptable example of Trey Hillman sitting on Soria.

On Saturday, John Bale entered in the 8th, walked a batter, recorded a groundout, and then was lifted for a righty with the tying run on second. Rather than call upon Soria, he called upon Cruz again. A pair of doubles later Roman Colon enters a one run game. Colon walks a pair and allows a single, giving the Royals a nice two-run deficit to work out of. They don’t, and there goes the series.

Sunday, with a chance to salvage one win, Hillman again refuses to use Soria. Instead he throws Jamey Wright and Colon at the fire. Again, the Royals blow the lead. To Hillman’s credit, he did have Soria warm up during the eighth. With the game tied and the bases loaded, Hillman decided this was not an ideal situation to use his best pen arm, and instead turned to Colon. A walk later, and the Royals are on the receiving end of a broom.

Rany Jazayerli mocked the situation by saying Soria will miss the rest of the season because he is “too rested” to pitch. Meanwhile Will McDonald called the Royals baseball philistines.

It’s beyond me how can any manager willingly sit by and allow each of those three games to slip away because of the save metric. Hillman might be a very intelligent person — I don’t know him and probably never will – so he has to realize that if the ownership group starts grumbling about a team that some, including ESPN, mislabeled as potential contenders this year, then there’s a good chance he’s the first one to go. With that in mind, doesn’t he have to start using Soria in some unconventional situations to pad this staying power? I guess he’s not managing for his job.

Too bad I’m not sure he realizes that managing is his job.