Garrett Atkins is an intriguing addition to the free agent pool. His career has been on a pretty steady downward trend for the past four years — from his six-win season in 2006 to his below-replacement season in 2009. His wRC+, which adjusts for Coors, has gone from 145 in 2006, to 117 in 2007, to 98 in 2008 and finally an ugly 65 this past year.

A repeat of his 2006 season is pretty unlikely, but still, a rebound to 2007 or 2008 form — a league average third basemen — could help many teams. So will we see such a rebound?

In 2009 his problem was batted-ball based, not plate discipline based (his walk and strikeout numbers were fine). His FB/HR rate dropped to a career low 7.3%, which is troubling when playing half his games at Coors, but the bigger problem was his BABIP of just .247. Before this year he averaged a BABIP of .320. What happened there? Turning to Baseball Reference’s BABIP by batted ball type:

BABIP
+--------------+---------------+-------------+--------------+
|              | Atkins Career | Atkins 2009 | League Aver. |
+--------------+---------------+-------------+--------------+
| Ground Balls |         0.247 |       0.256 |        0.235 |
| Fly Balls    |         0.108 |       0.055 |        0.142 |
| Line Drives  |         0.711 |       0.600 |        0.718 | 
+--------------+---------------+-------------+--------------+

The problem was definitely with balls in the air. They not only went for HRs much less often but they dropped in for hits at a much smaller rate. Below I broke up the playing field into ten zones, counted the fraction of Atkins balls in the air to each zone and color coded each zone based on its BABIP (darker the better). The image on the left is for 2006 to 2008 and on the right is for 2009.

Atkins is just not hitting the ball as far: the four closest zones have more balls in play in 2009 than in 2008 and all but one of the farthest six zones have fewer. Atkins plays serviceable defense at third base and walks at an above average rate while striking out at a below average rate, but if he wants to have a job as a starting third basemen he is going to have to get back to hitting the ball with some authority.

General Manager: Bill Smith
Farm Director: Jim Rantz
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Aaron Hicks has the potential to be a massive star, if he can round his game into form. There are some other interesting bats in the upper levels of the Top 10 list, but they’re all raw in many facets of their games. There is some solid pitching in the latter half of the list, but their ceilings are limited. Minnesota drafted a number of power arms in ’09, which could help infuse some helium into the pitching side of the system. If all goes well in 2010, this organization could see a real rise in value from its prospects.

1. Aaron Hicks, OF, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Even after an outstanding debut in ’08, the organization was patient with Hicks, who began the ’09 season in extended spring training before moving up to low-A at mid-season. The outfielder hit a respectable .251/.353/.382 in 251 at-bats. With his speed, he should see an increase in his BABIP (.307) in 2010, which will help his overall numbers. He showed a willingness to take a free pass in his first season and that continued last year with a walk rate of 13.7%. Hicks’ strikeout rate was rather high at 21.9%, especially for someone who posted an ISO rate of just .131, but he has raw power. The outfielder did not run as much in ’09 and Hicks showed inexperience on the base paths by getting gunned down eight times in 18 attempts. He is a gifted fielder with a canon for an arm, that can hit the mid-to-high 90s on the mound (He was an amateur pitcher, as well as a hitter).

2. Wilson Ramos, C, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

With reigning AL MVP Joe Mauer behind the dish, the last thing the Twins organization needs is a top prospect at the catching position. But the club certainly won’t complain, as Mauer could eventually move off the position to save his knees, or Ramos could end up being a valuable trade commodity. Either way, the Venezuela native isn’t far from being MLB-ready after hitting .317/.341/.454 in ’09 at double-A. Ramos has always hit for a solid average, but he’s also consistently produced healthy BABIPs, although many catchers suffer from chronically-low numbers in that area (due to a lack of foot speed). A catcher with raw power, he has nonetheless failed to post an ISO above .149 in his four-year career. Ramos also posted a walk rate of just 2.8% in ’09, so that obviously has to improve and he typically walks about 7.0%. His strikeout rate plummeted from 22.8% in ’08 to 11.2% in ’09, but injuries took a chunk out of his season and he had just 214 plate appearances. We’ll have to wait for 2010 to see if that was a true adjustment, or a small-sample-size blip. Behind the dish, Ramos has thrown out +40% in each of the past three seasons.

3. Danny Valencia, 3B, Triple-A
DOB: September 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 19th round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

It’s not often that you see a low-drafted college player end up on a team’s Top 10 list, but Valencia has shown a lot of improvements since turning pro. His .285 average in ’09 was a career low (split between double-A and triple-A), so the third baseman can certainly swing the bat. He hit .284/.373/.482 in 218 double-A at-bats, before moving up to triple-A, where he hit .286/.305/.454 in 269 at-bats. Valencia’s numbers took a hit after the promotion – especially his on-base percentage – because his walk rate plummeted from 12.4 to 2.9%. If we’re looking for a positive, though, his strikeout rate also dropped – from 18.3 to 13.8%. Valencia has shown some power in the minors, but he’s never broken the magic .200 ISO mark, which suggests he’ll probably top out in the 15-20 homer range in the Majors.

4. Angel Morales, OF, Low-A
DOB: November 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Puerto Rico HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

When he was drafted, Morales was about as raw as they come. But he also has some of the best power potential of any hitter in the minors; he just needs to make more contact. The Puerto Rican outfielder posted an otherworldly .322 ISO at rookie ball in ’08 and he followed that up with a rate of .189 at low-A in ’09. Despite the drop in power, Morales showed some improvements with his bat control, as his strikeout rate dropped from 39.3 to 27.7%. Overall, he hit .266/.329/.455 in 376 at-bats with 19 steals in 25 tries. He could eventually turn into a 20-20 (or even 30-30) player, once he sharpens his base running. Defensively, he has a strong arm and has played both center and right field in the minors. Considering that Morales is just scratching the surface of his potential and he posted a .361 wOBA in ’09 at the age of 19, it’s not hard to be excited about his future.

5. Ben Revere, OF, High-A
DOB: May 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Kentucky HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Revere has a fun skill set, and he’s certainly not your typical No. 1 draft pick. The outfielder is just 5’9” and he possesses little-to-no power (.058 ISO in ’09), which is a bit of an issue considering that it’s dropped with each promotion in the minors. There is some concern that Revere could have the bat knocked out of his hands at the MLB level. What he does do well, though, is hit for average (.311 is his career low) and steal bases (89 bases in the past two seasons, caught 30 times). Revere does a nice job of playing “small ball,” as he posted a BB/K rate of 1.18 in high-A ball this past season. He certainly does not have to worry about being platooned, with a career line against southpaws of .365/.425/.430. The speedy outfielder has a good defensive reputation in center, although his weak arm could eventually require a move to left field.

6. Joe Benson, OF, High-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 2nd round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The first six prospects on the Top 10 list are all hitters, and Benson makes it four outfielders in the Top 6 picks, so it’s obvious where the organization’s strengths lie. The former prep football player has taken some time to develop his skills on the diamond, but the organization’s patience is starting to pay off. Benson spent the season in high-A ball where he hit .285/.414/.403 as a 21 year old. Injuries limited the outfielder to just 327 plate appearances. In the past, Benson has struggled to get his average above .260 so we must be cautious in our optimism considering that his ’09 BABIP was rather high at .380. The right-handed hitter showed improvements in his walk rate, which rose from 8.6 to 14.9%. His strikeout rate remained high, though, at 28.1% and it was not justifiable by the .118 ISO rate. Durability is also a concern with Benson, who has appeared in just 149 games over the past two minor league seasons.

7. Jeff Manship, RHP, Majors
DOB: January 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 14th round – Notre Dame
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, slider, change-up

Manship made his MLB debut in ’09 and proved to be a valuable arm for the club, as he made five starts and six relief appearances. Overall, he allowed a few too many hits with 39 in 31.2 innings, and he struggled with his control by posting an unusually-high walk rate of 4.26 BB/9. Manship began the season by making 13 starts in double-A before moving up to triple-A, where he started another eight games. With a four-pitch mix and a plus breaking ball, Manship has the potential to be a No. 4 starter for the Twins, but he’ll have to improve his high-80s fastball (-1.87 runs above average per 100). He also needs to throw a few more first-pitch strikes, as his rate of 52.7% was 6% below the league average.

8. David Bromberg, RHP, High-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 32nd round – Santa Ana College
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 FB, CB, CH

Despite some inconsistent command of his pitches, Bromberg does a number of things well. He misses his fair share of bats (8.69 K/9 rate in high-A), he keeps the ball in the yard (0.35 HR/9) and he has never posted a FIP above 3.56. This past season, he also allowed just 125 hits in 153.1 innings. The right-hander limited left-handed batters to a .210 batting average and posted a strikeout rate of 9.36 against them. At 6’5”, 230 lbs, Bromberg has the chance to be a durable No. 3 or 4 starter for the Twins.

9. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Gutierrez’ future role – starter or reliever – is still up in the air. The right-hander is a ground-ball machine and he posted a worm-burning rate of 62.7% in ’09. If he can miss a few more bats and increase his strikeout rate from 5.08 K/9, then Gutierrez could certainly be something special. It was a tale of two seasons for the right-hander in ’09, as he posted a 3.55 FIP and 0.16 HR/9 rate in high-A, before moving up to double-A where his FIP was 5.02 and his home-run rate jumped to 1.03 HR/9. The main culprit for the FIP increase was Gutierrez’ BABIP, which went from an incredibly-low .229 to .326. Struggles with his command led to the increase in homers. Commanding his sinking fastball in 2010 will be key, as Gutierrez has yet to improve his secondary pitches to the point where they can miss bats on a regular basis (The slider has the most promise).

10. Tyler Robertson, LHP, High-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

Robertson sneaks on to the back-end of the Top 10 list thanks to his youthfulness (22), his handedness (southpaw) and his ground-ball tendencies (career 52.6%). The young left-hander needs to miss a few more bats, though, to truly take his game to the next level; he posted a strikeout rate of just 6.47 K/9 in high-A. He does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and posted a home-run rate of 0.44 HR/9. Interestingly, his BABIP has decreased each season since his debut year of ’06, and it reached a low of .305 in ’09. Robertson has had some pretty extreme splits over the past two seasons. This past season, left-handed batters hit .200 with a strikeout rate of 7.33, compared to right-handers with a .300 average and 5.61 K/9 rate.

A special thanks to Aaron Gleeman of Circling The Bases for his insight.

Up Next: The Milwaukee Brewers

After being connected to trade rumors involving J.J. Hardy earlier this winter, the Pirates have non tendered closer Matt Capps. Given that Pittsburgh assumes that other teams would value Capps, this strikes me as an interesting move. 2009 was rough for Capps, as his ERA rose to a staggering 5.80 after two years of 2.28 and 3.02. He also blew 5 saves in 32 chances. It’s clear that Capps has closer talent. What made him so ineffective in 2009?

The spike in ERA can be easily attributed a rise in home run rate. Capps managed to hold hitters to HR/9 rates of 0.57 and 0.84 in 2007 and 2008, despite fly ball rates in the 45%-50% range. The only way to survive as a flyballing relief pitcher is to post low HR/FB rates, and Capps had certainly succeeded with that prior to 2008. In 2009, however, Capps’s HR/FB ballooned to 13.5%, and even though Capps allowed fewer fly balls, that still resulted in a nearly twice as high HR/9. The end result is a 1.62 rise in FIP.

Capps did see a rise in walk rate, but at 2.82 BB/9, it’s nothing to be worried about. Since it was accompanied by a rise in K rate as well, it is even less concerning. Then, before any team adds Capps, the item of investigation is what caused the home run rate to increase.

Velocity was not an issue for Capps, as his fastball, slider, and changeup all had the fastest velocities of his career. In fact, it is the last pitch which jumps out when examining the data. His 87.1 average changeup is 2.5 MPH faster than that pitch ever has clocked in over his career.

What makes the changeup effective for most pitchers is the difference in speeds between it and the fastball. At 6.5 MPH in 2009, this difference was, unsurprisingly, the lowest of his career. It had a very noticeable effect on the pitch’s effectiveness, as measured by our pitch type values. From 2006-2008, the pitch had ranged in effectiveness from -3.21 to +3.12 runs per 100 pitches. In 2009, it plummeted to -5.35 runs per 100. It appears that Capps’s changeup lost much of its effectiveness after it no longer retained the 8.5 MPH difference that led to the +3.12 run value per 100 pitches in 2009.

There was more to Capps’s ineffectiveness in 2009 than a poor changeup. His .370 BABIP is unsustainable and will regress, and it’s likely that the same applies to his 13.5% HR/FB. Much of regaining his success, however, will lie on returning the changeup to an effective pitch.

Capps pitched far too well in 2007 and 2008 to not be picked up by a team in 2010. Whether or not he can regain his closer effectiveness again will remain to be seen.

Do you think Capps can rebound? Enter your projection for Matt Capps’s 2010 here.

Today, we look at some young pitchers who made highly anticipated debuts last season but have as yet to eclipse the 30 ballot threshold in our Fan Projections: Neftali Feliz, Rick Porcello, and Chris Tillman.

Feliz pitched exclusively in relief for Texas after an early-August promotion, blowing away hitters with a 95.8 mph fastball.

Porcello is a ground-ball monster who’ll reach drinking age just in time for New Year’s.

Tillman came to Baltimore as part of the Bedard trade. He breezed through the minors but had a little bit more trouble in his major league debut.

As you may have noticed, there’s now an extra column in the “Advanced” section for batting stats called “wRC+”. You can think of this stat as a wOBA based version of OPS+. It’s park and league adjusted and it’s on a very similar scale as OPS+. The difference is that it uses wRC, which is based on wOBA.

For those of you not familiar with the scale, 100 is average. Anything higher is above average and anything below 100 is below average.

Big thanks goes out to Tangotiger for pointing out how easy it was to implement this particular stat. It’s now available in all the player pages for major league and minor league players going all the way back to 1871. Please note that it is not park adjusted for minor league stats, but it is league adjusted.

It’s also in the career leaderboards and will soon be making its way into the individual season leaderboards too.

Update: I’ve removed pitchers from the league baselines, so the values will have changed slightly since this morning.

This move is flabbergasting.

Ignore, for a moment, that the Giants essentially gave away Scott Barnes. Brian Sabean acquired Ryan Garko in late July. Up until that point, he was hitting .285/.362/.464 with 11 homers and a .361 wOBA in 273 plate appearances. With the Giants, he would experience some legitimate struggles, batting .235/.307/.330 with two homers in 127 plate appearances. That’s a bad spell for anyone, but this is a 28-year-old who batted .283/.353/.480 in the American League over his last three seasons. Odds are, Garko will rebound towards his career numbers more so than his career Giants numbers.

This move comes down to two things. Either Sabean and company have absolutely no plan to speak of, or this was their plan all along: shipping off their ninth best prospect – a left-handed starting pitcher with an impressive performance in a hitter-friendly league – for what amounts to a month of plate appearances. I’m not sure which should terrify Giants fans more, but I’m leaning towards the latter. At least the promise of no plan is exciting and leads to unpredictably and spontaneous bouts of anger. That beats the heck out of a constant dull roar of anger because your favorite team’s front office considers long-term potential for extremely short-term gains an equal trade.

What may be the worst part about this – and mind you, that’s saying a lot – is the Giants are probably going to sign a free agent first baseman now. Maybe they’ll lock onto Jim Thome or Carlos Delgado – the jokes about Sabean’s obsession with old players would write themselves – but it’ll probably be someone like Adam LaRoche. Why Adam LaRoche? Because getting marginal upgrades like this when it costs you one of your top 10 prospects and millions more is exactly the type of move that caps this massacre of foresightedness with one violent stroke:

Ed Wade and Dayton Moore need to be on notice. Sabean’s not letting you take that crown of most silly off-season move without a fight.

Gods of Baseball, why must you test me so?

Earlier tonight, before my wife and I went out for supper, I read reports that the Royals had signed Jason Kendall for four million dollars over two years. I shuddered and began thinking about how to explain this silliness to even the most obstinate Dayton Moore-defender. Halfway through the meal I made the foolish (in more ways than one) mistake of looking at my BlackBerry. Kendall had, in fact, signed with the Royals for two years and six million dollars, a contract that, like Ivan Rodriguez’s deal with the Nationals, is appropriate for about a 1 WAR player. I then realized that anyone would understand why this contract is ridiculous.

Let’s get the basics out of the way: The Royals aren’t going to be getting any “interest” from Kendall’s excellent 1999-2004, or decent 2005-2006. They’re getting the 2010/11 model. CHONE projects Kendall to hit a .247/.317/.315 in Kansas City, or 25 runs below average per 150 games. My own projection is roughly the same: .240/.313/.316; -26/150.

The Royals aren’t just paying for Kendall’s “bat,” but for his allegedly tremendous defense. CHONE’s TotalZone system apparently didn’t get the memo, projecting Kendall at -2/150. Other sources are the the same ballpark: I had Kendall at -4.5 runs in 2009. Translating the 2009 Fans’ Scouting Report to runs, I got about -3.

Even with the positional adjustment for catchers, Kendall projects as a 0.5 WAR player per 150 games, and few catchers play 150 games. The Royals managed to acquire a guy who is barely better than a AAA journeyman, will be 36 in 2010, will likely be replacement level or below in 2011 if he isn’t already, and are paying him six million dollars over two years. This would be a bad contract no matter what the team’s situation.

For the Royals, it’s even worse. For one thing, the Royals are at the opposite end of the “value of a marginal win spectrum” from, say, the Rays. If Dayton Moore and Jack Zduriencik switched places today, the Royals probably wouldn’t be ready to contend until at least 2012. Why blow money on a rich man’s replacement player now?

Moreover, the Royals have better internal options. Yes, Kendall will achieve what few could in making Royals fans miss the magic of Miguel Olivo’s strike-zone judgment and pitch-blocking skills. He’s gone, but there’s also a personal (and admittedly irrational) favorite of mine: the soon-to-be-non-tendered John Buck, who (aside from many fans never forgiving him for being part of the Carlos Beltran “haul”) has defensive problems of his own. Since Dayton Moore came to town, he has played Michael Scott to Buck’s Toby Flenderson. While it wouldn’t be worth it for the Royals to pay Buck’s likely arbitration award, as Rany Jazayerli suggests, they at least could have seen if they could non-tender Buck then re-sign him for less than Kendall, as Buck looks to be a 1-1.5 WAR player according to CHONE (if teams are smart, he will get a fair bit of attention once he’s non-tendered).

Buck is likely a dead issue at this point, but the Royals also have Brayan Pena, who was acquired off waivers in 2008 in one of Dayton Moore’s smarter moves (insert joke here). CHONE projects his bat at league average and his glove at -5 — a 2.7 WAR catcher. That is probably optimistic; but if Pena is a -5 hitter and a -10 defender, that’s still about a 1.5 WAR player — much better than Kendall. Even if Pena is a -10 hitter and -15 defender… you guessed it, that’s about the same as Jason Kendall projects for 2010, minus about $2.5 million in salary. Maybe the Royals will “get smart” and sit Kendall for Pena, but a rebuilding team that puts itself into the situation of paying a backup catcher three million dollars a year doesn’t bring the word “smart” to mind.

Buck and Pena aren’t the primary issue here. They are examples that emphasize both the overpayment and pointlessness of the Kendall acquisition, particularly on a team that will be lucky to win 75 games in 2010. It is tempting to turn this into a rant about Dayton Moore, but frankly, this probably won’t be my last chance to do so this off-season. Instead, let’s have some words from the man of the hour himself, Jason Kendall:

“There were other offers,” [Kendall] said, “but one thing about Dayton and the Royals is, they called me the first day I became a free agent. That’s something that kind of speaks for itself.”

Indeed.

In case you slept in yesterday morning, the Rule 5 draft happened. Don’t worry, you didn’t miss much. One of the results of the new collective bargaining agreement is that teams got an extra year between a player’s first signing date and their eligibility for the Rule 5 draft. This makes for a pretty watered-down draft.

Since the change, teams have hit on two star players, but they are more of an aberration. Joakim Soria was a rare scouting find out of the Mexican League and has since become the “Mexicutioner”. Josh Hamilton’s career was a sad tale of tools, injuries and drugs before he received help. Randy Wells would be considered a noteworthy Rule 5 pick if the Blue Jays did not return him to the Cubs. The Jays drafted him before the ’08 season, but Toronto returned him. Wells went on to have a 3 WAR rookie season in ’09.

In last year’s Rule 5 draft, five out of the 21 players selected stuck all year on a big league roster – Everth Cabrera, Donnie Veal, Luis Perdomo, David Patton and Darren O’Day. Cabrera shows the most promise of the group, with gobs of speed (7.9 speed score) and a surprising amount of patience (10.9% walk rate) for a player that made the jump to the majors from A-ball. He will need to work on his defense or else be moved to over to second base, but overall appears to be a solid player.

Veal demonstrated no control whatsoever, but showed enough promise for the Pirates to stash him away all season, and he made progress in the Arizona Fall League. Patton was also atrocious. Luis Perdomo pitched almost strictly in mop-up duty for the Padres, with a league low pLI of .28. He struck out 8 batters per nine innings, but walked 5 per nine and had an alarmingly high HR rate (1.7/9) for a pitcher who calls Petco his home ballpark. Darren O’Day was selected from the Angels by the Mets, was later put on waivers before being claimed by the Rangers. O’Day became a key cog in the Ranger bullpen with a 3.03 FIP in 58.2 innings.

So out of this year’s crop, who has the best chance to stick? The three position players drafted are replacement level players at best, by my observation. That leaves us with 14 pitchers.

Bobby Cassevah has a mediocre 1.2 K/BB ratio in Double-A last year, but I think he will remain with the A’s because a.) they’re not going to contend this year and can afford to stash him away in the back of their bullpen and b.) he has a filthy 92-94 MPH sinker that generates a gobs of groundballs. 70% of his balls in play were of the worm-burner variety. I was somewhat surprised the Angels didn’t protect him on their 40-man roster.

Ben Snyder has some definite LOOGY potential. He struck out 30% of the lefties he faced last season for Double-A Connecticut and has a 32% strikeout rate against lefties over his career. He has a high-80’s fastball and an above average slider. He’s coming to Texas by way of San Francisco.

Kanekoa Texeira has a sinker/slider pitcher and has a decent opportunity with Seattle. He gets groundballs, (63% last year) and misses bats at a decent enough clip.

I’ll go with another lefty and pick Armando Zerpa last. He hasn’t pitched above A-ball, but he’s only 22 years old having signed out of the Venezuela in 2004. He throws from a low arm slot, gets grounders with a sinker/slider mix.

All in all a very bland crop. There could be some surprises, but it’s a long shot.

In yet another victory for Kansas City GM Dayton Moore’s “Process,” the Royals released DH/1B Mike Jacobs on Thursday. Mike Jacobs is perhaps most indicative of what has been wrong with many of Dayton Moore’s moves. Jacobs had nearly every telltale sign of being a player to avoid. He was near or at his peak, at age 28 when acquired last year, and was about to receive a relatively large contract in arbitration due to his lofty power numbers. He couldn’t play defense. His fielding percentage was poor, and his UZR was downright atrocious. He couldn’t get on base. Jacobs did one thing well, and that was hit home runs.

Indeed, a player with a .266 ISO can be an interesting player. Perhaps you give up nothing of value, hope you can teach him how to take a walk, and you might have a decent DH on your hands. Possibly. Still, a team in the financial situation of the Royals cannot afford a three million dollar or more reclamation project to sit on their roster, especially when players like Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue were blocked by this move.

The acquisition of Jacobs is certainly not a franchise crippling move in itself. Leo Nunez, the piece that went to Florida in exchange for Jacobs, is not a good pitcher, despite his upcoming promotion to the closer role upon the departure of Matt Lindstrom. Also, even with a good player in Jacobs’s spot in the lineup, the Royals were not going to reach the playoffs. So why do we make such a big deal out of moves like this one?

The problem is that moves like this, when repeated (Kyle Farnsworth signing for multimillion dollars and multiple years, Jose Guillen’s contract, etc.) are the type of things, that when piled on top of each other, can mire a franchise in mediocrity (or worse) for years. Recently, the Royals have seemed entirely dependent on The Process, as Moore calls it. He has banned bloggers, most prominently Rany Jazayerli, from Kauffman Stadium. Moore seemed to be entirely resistant to any sort of contradictory thoughts to his Process.

This is why the end of the Mike Jacobs era could be significant. By releasing Jacobs, it is an admittance of the mistake of acquiring him in the first place. Is Dayton Moore all of a sudden going to be reading the gospel of The Fielding Bible and quoting UZR and wOBA? Doubtful. But perhaps clearer heads can prevail. If the Royals are ready to admit that what they have done in the past hasn’t worked, it is the first step to finding the correct path in the future.

Today and for the rest of the weekend, we would like to take a look at some NL rookies who performed quite well and yet received little to no consideration for the rookie of the year: Seth Smith, Randy Wells, and Garrett Jones

Smith, from Colorado, was the best pinch-hitter in the league, with a PH OPS over 1.400, and put up monster numbers overall, as he was worth 2.7 wins in less than 400 PAs.

Wells, from Chicago, got a lot of play from Rob Neyer, who was the only BBWAA member to vote for him. Wells pitched extremely well, and was worth 3.0 wins in 165 IP, thanks to a 3.88 FIP

Jones, from Pittsburgh, much like Smith, showed good power in his first time up. He hit 21 HRs and was worth 2.6 wins in only 358 PAs.