2010 CHONE Projections!
Courtesy of baseballprojection.com and Sean Smith, we’ve got the CHONE projections available in all the player pages, the sortable leaderboards!
You’ll also note that there are WAR values generated off the CHONE projections for non-pitchers. Couple things to note about these. They use the CHONE defensive projections (which are based off Total Zone), but everything else is calculated in the same manner as the usual FanGraphs WAR. I am also not park adjusting the “Batting” component, which is the same deal as the “Fan” projections. I’ll probably do the WAR for pitchers sometime next week.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
As always David, many thanks for the work you put into making this place one of the most awesome resources on the internet.
This site just continues to get better every week. I absolutely love Projections; they can keep me entertained for hours.
I think it is important to have CHONE’s numbers on the pages because they seem to generally be more conservative (and realistic) than Bill James and The Fans projections.
Thank you so much for your work.
Thanks Dave! Any word when ZiPS is going to be available?
Usually Dan has them done by late February.
Has there been any kind of review of 2009 projections, to show how they compared to the actual results?
Here’s how the projections worked out at a team level from 2005-9.
http://vegaswatch.net/2009/11/evaluating-april-mlb-predictions-2005.html
A suggestion for the sortable leader boards — can the sort be changed so that on the first click it sorts in descending order?
Some weird projections.
Cameron is only valued at 1.4 WAR? That seems like an extreme lowball scenario.
Well, I guess CHONE expects his offense to finally fall off a cliff and it doesn’t have him playing in center field. That’s your 2+ wins right there.
At 37, it’s not unreasonable to expect his bat to decline some. How much is up for debate.
Awesome.
Any chance of getting the TotalZone values listed on the leader board? Position adjustments, too?
I’m already finding some interesting surprises.
For example:
Holliday: 4.8 WAR
Bay: 4.0 WAR
I’ve been arguing all offseason that Holliday was significantly better. If CHONE turns out to be correct, I might actually end up liking Omar Minaya’s decision here. There must be some mistake.
TotalZone must not like Holliday’s fielding advantage nearly as much as UZR does.
And TZ doesn’t hate Bay nearly as much.
Yes, it’s odd, but TZ had him really awful in 2008, but then had him above average in 2009. I know these numbers vary year to year, but Bay’s are extreme. And I know he had the knee problem in 2007, but it doesn’t look like his base running has slowed down the last two years. His speed scores are above his career average. So I’m not sure why his defense should have fallen off a cliff.
So I was thinking his defense was being underestimated by UZR, but I was still thinking more like +3.5 WAR for Bay with Holliday still over +5.0 WAR.
Yay! Chone is here!
Any chance these are going to be made available through the iPhone app???
Any chance that the projection page can be narrowed by team, instead of just by position?
Yes, I’ve wondered the same thing. This would be one of my top feature requests, to have the projections pages sortable by team.
Thank you, Sean and David!
I’d much rather see CHONE projections than the Bill James stuff.
Melky Cabrera is projected at 3.4 WAR.
Wow.
Yeah, I noticed that. Young player entering his prime + moving to Quad-A?
Is there a reason for the huge discrepancies between the projections on baseballprojection.com and here? CHONE on Fangraphs projects Jason Bay for 30.4 runs batting. CHONE on Baseballprojection.com projects him for 23 batting runs/150.
Well, first off, our batting runs are not per 150, it’s just a raw number above/below average, though in Bay’s case that’s not going to make a huge difference since he’s projected for 147 games.
We include stolen bases too, which is going to make for some slight differences and I believe Sean uses BaseRuns to calculate runs above average while we use wOBA and convert it to wRAA.