Joe Pawlikowski made his debut here at FanGraphs by listing four reasons why teams are avoiding Jermaine Dye. I’d like to add a fifth.

He’s right-handed. Let me explain.

At this point in his career, Dye is essentially a DH who might be able to fake it at first base, depending on how hard he works at it. He’s not an outfielder anymore, not at 36-years-old and coming off a four year stretch of -20 UZRs. And, because of the physics of throwing across the infield, right-handed 1B/DH types just aren’t all that appealing.

Second baseman, third baseman, and shortstop all have to throw right-handed. It’s just the nature of tossing the ball to first base – left-handed throwers are restricted to first base or the outfield. Because one of the requirements of playing the three non-1B infield spots is throwing right-handed, it follows naturally that most of those infielders also hit right-handed.

There were 71 2B/3B/SS types who accumulated 100 or more games at those infield positions in 2009 – 47 of them bat from the right side. That’s 66 percent. Approximately 2/3 of all non-1B infielders are right-handed batters. And of the 24 guys who can swing it from the left side, a group of them aren’t really offensive threats; we’re talking guys like Geoff Blum, Cesar Izturis, and Kaz Matsui. The list of guys who can provide real offensive ability from the left side while playing 2B, 3B, or SS is pretty short.

What does any of this have to do with Jermaine Dye? Well, if you’re a team that is already stocked with right-handers around the infield, you’re running out of spots to get a really good left-handed hitter to balance out your line-up. Unless you have an MVP caliber center fielder, he’s probably not that guy. You might be able to get a left-handed thumping bat in a corner outfield spot, but those guys are expensive, and a lot of teams are realizing that it’s more cost efficient to put a good defender out there anyway.

This gives rise to a strong preference to fill your 1B/DH jobs with left-handed hitters. Dye is not only trying to convince teams that he can still hit after a miserable second half, but he’s also trying to convince them to forfeit a natural line-up spot that could go to a left-handed bat. For a lot of teams, this is just not worth doing.

Even if Dye can outproduce a comparable left-handed hitter by 5 or 10 percent, managers are going to prefer a balanced line-up, so that opposing managers can’t just shut down their offense with specialist relievers in every close game. And as a right-handed 1B/DH type, Dye threatens every team he may join with a lack of balance in their line-up.

Not only does he need to find a team that is interested in an aging DH, but he needs to find one that doesn’t have too many right-handed infielders on the roster. It should be no surprise that, given how many restrictions there are on teams who may be interested in his services, that there just isn’t much of a market for him.

If you’re a right-handed hitter, you don’t want to end up in the 1B/DH pool. Do whatever you can to sustain your defensive abilities at another position, because once you’re down that far on the defensive spectrum, your career as an everyday player is probably close to being over.

We’re pleased to welcome another new writer to the fold – Alex Remington. He’ll be holding down the fort every Thursday around here. Welcome, Alex.

Greetings to all! I’m Alex Remington. You may know me from Big League Stew at Yahoo! Sports, or the Atlanta Braves blog Chop-n-Change. (I also blog on pop culture at Huffington Post and my own blog, Remingtonstein.) I’m excited to be a member of the FanGraphs community, with so many of my favorite writers. I’m looking forward to hearing from you! I’m interested in looking at some of the narratives of the season. Today I’d like to look at one of the most obvious: money.

For the second straight offseason, the uncertain national economy has noticeably affected the baseball economy. It’s a different world out there. So far in 2009, there have been just six contracts worth at least $20 million in 2009; in 2006, there were 20. What’s more, over the past two years, many of the biggest contracts have been given out early, rather than late. In 2008 and 2009, there were 20 contracts worth at least $20 million. 11 of them were handed out before New Year’s (ten of those were in December, around the Winter Meetings), and another six were handed out by mid-January. After that, almost no one signed for even semi-big money.

Of course, the free agent market is fairly segmented. Eight of the 20 biggest contracts — a full 40% — were handed out by the Mets, Yankees and Cubs, the three highest-payroll teams in baseball last year. Four more were given out by the Dodgers and Braves, both in the top 12. The other 25 franchises were more parsimonious with their funds. So it really is a buyer’s market: a free agent has to know that there are only a handful of teams from whom he’ll be able to get a big-money contract. If those teams take a pass, then a free agent is basically left chasing table scraps, along with every other free agent out there.

Several free agents this offseason have notably erred in their negotiations. Adam LaRoche reportedly spurned $17.5 million from the Giants, and wound up signing for $6 million with the D-Backs. He explained his reasoning: “I just had to weigh it. Was it worth going there for a couple of years or just riding it out and seeing what kind of options were available? They kind of started dwindling fast.” No kidding. These days, it seems that “riding it out” is a poor financial decision, as Johnny Damon is also learning. Damon rejected two years and $14 million from the Yankees, and is now mulling an offer in the $5 million range from the Atlanta Braves. And Jarrod Washburn, who turned down a $5 million dollar offer from the Twins, has received so little interest from elsewhere that he’s considering retirement.

Of course, the waiting game isn’t always disastrous. Manny Ramirez got $45 million last March, after all. But he’s Manny Ramirez, and most free agents are not. The longer they wait, the longer other teams are able to think of other, cheaper ways to fill their team’s holes than the free agent market. If there’s any chance of getting the Yankees or Mets interested, then waiting may be a good strategy. If not, then most free agents should really just sign on the dotted line.

We would like to welcome Joe Pawlikowski to the FanGraphs team. We don’t hold his Yankee fandom against him, and neither should you.

When Jermaine Dye finally decides to call it a career, his post-baseball life will likely not include a job in sales. In a recent Ken Rosenthal article he stated his case for 2010 employment: “It’s only been [4 1/2] years since I was the World Series MVP. I’m a winner. Hopefully some teams out there can see that.” Teams, of course, care little about what Dye did in 2005 when he was a prime-aged, power-hitting right fielder. They’re more worried about his performance in 2009, as an age-35 right fielder.

Dye’s defense has been nothing short of atrocious over the past four years. Bob Bry, Dye’s agent, believes that the recent focus on defense “has reached the level of absurdity.” Of course, when one of his clients ranks among the most defensively deficient outfielders over the past half decade, his job is to say things like that. But since Bry wants to place the emphasis on offensive skills, let’s look at four reasons why Dye’s 2009 numbers at the plate warrant a red flag or two.

1. He dropped off significantly in the second half

Players streak and players slump. It’s part of any baseball season, so it’s usually best to take a bad month as just that. As players age, though, a prolonged slump starts to raise questions. Since Dye’s slump came in the second half of the season, his raises even more. He hit .179/.293/.297 after the All-Star Break, after hitting .302/.375/.567 prior. Did he wear down as the season got into the later stages?

We can’t answer that with any degree of certainty. Maybe he battled through an injury. Maybe something was just off and it had nothing to do with his age. His second half numbers present an awfully small sample, just 246 plate appearances, so maybe we shouldn’t take his drop-off so seriously. But, just because I think it’s interesting, in his 83 September plate appearances he posted his highest fly ball rate of the year and his lowest HR/FB. Again, probably meaningless in the long run, but when we see this from an aging player it causes concern.

2. He was horrible going the opposite way

Looking back to 2002, as far back as FanGraphs splits go, Dye has posted two standout years, 2005 and 2006, with wOBAs of .361 and .417. Part of his success that year came on balls hit to right field. He was particularly excellent on those pitches in his 2006 career year. In 2009, however, he was horrendous — and I’m not sure that word adequately describes his opposite field prowess.

His rate stats are poor enough, but Dye’s problem went deeper. He it .184 on balls to right, with a .223 SLG, for a puny .039 ISO. Making matters worse, of the 370 balls Dye put into play, 104 of them were to right field, or 28 percent overall. When a dead pull hitter fares this poorly hitting to the opposite field it’s usually not a huge deal, because he’s not hitting many balls that way in the first place. But with numbers that bad on 28 percent of balls in play, it becomes a much larger issue.

Furthermore, of the 105 balls he hit to right field, two-thirds were put in the air. For Dye, whose game centers on power, that might seem like a good thing, but as we saw above his power was almost nonexistent. Part of that is that many of those fly balls never left the infield. His infield fly ball rate to right was 20 percent. He hit 70 fly balls to right, so the second or first baseman shagged 14 of them.

3. He posted the lowest line drive rate of his career

Leaving out his shortened 2003 season, Dye’s 16.9 percent line drive rate marked the lowest of his career, by over two percent. Even in his sub-par 2007 season he hit a line drive 19 percent of the time. This included a 17.9 percent line drive rate to left field, his lowest mark since 2005, and a 15.7 rate to center, the lowest of his career since 2002.

By itself, this might not mean much. Maybe Dye was just having trouble seeing the ball and he got over or under pitches he normally would have hit on the nose. But, again, Dye is not a player in the prime of his career. If this were the only factor, maybe we could chalk it up to a bad year, maybe even a bad few months. But when combined with other factors, it appears to be a larger issue.

4. His defense

Grammarians claim that the most important aspect of a sentence should appear at the end. Consistent with this, the most important point about Dye rounds out this list. His defense isn’t just bad. Bad is Bobby Abreu. Bad is Michael Cuddyer. Jermaine Dye stands with rare company over the past four years, posting a UZR/150 of worse than -20 each year. If Johnny Damon is having trouble finding work because of one poor defensive season in the outfield, it’s tough to imagine Dye getting any serious offers, especially from an NL team.

Looking at the past three years of UZR data, only Brad Hawpe ranks worse than Dye in terms of UZR and UZR/150 among right fielders with more than 2,800 innings at the position. The next worse, Cuddyer, is far out ahead at -13 UZR/150, to Dye’s -22.4. Dye says he’s willing to play left field, but that should only further deter clubs from signing him. Given that Dye’s futility covers four years — he was at -21.5 UZR/150 in 2006 — there is no reason why any team should sign him with the thought of giving him even one inning in the outfield.

Dye does understand that the market isn’t as robust as it was when he signed a two-year, $22 million extension late in the 2007 season. Yet he doesn’t think it devalues him too much. “But there are still guys getting money that I feel I’m better than,” he said. The market, however, does not care how Jermaine Dye feels. With about three weeks left until position players officially report to spring training, there’s little to no chance Dye receives an offer anywhere near what he’s seeking. His best chance, in fact, might be to see how things develop in March and catch on with a team short a player or two due to injury. As it stands now, there doesn’t appear to be much room for another DH on many rosters.

General Manager: Ned Colletti
Farm Director: De Jon Watson
Scouting Director: Logan White

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

1. Devaris Gordon, SS, Low-A
DOB: April 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Seminole Community College
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The son of long-time closer Tom ‘Flash’ Gordon, Dee is a speedy middle infielder with game-changing speed. The left-handed hitter stole 73 bases in 98 attempts this past season in low-A ball. He also showed some offensive potential with a line of .301/.362/.394 in 538 at-bats. Obviously the power is not there for him right now (.093 ISO) but he’s a valuable player even if he hits five homers in a season at the MLB level. His speed will help him turn a lot of singles into doubles and triples by moving up via the steal. His walk rate is OK for a top-of-the-order hitter, but it would be nice to see him break the 10% mark. The strikeout rate is acceptable at 16.7%. Gordon should be good enough at shortstop to remain there for the foreseeable future.

2. Ethan Martin, RHP, Low-A
DOB: June 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Martin’s first pro season was a success despite a rather high walk rate of 5.49 BB/9 in low-A. His walk rate was just 3.35 BB/9 while pitching with the lead so it may be a mental issue that he needs to overcome; his stuff is good enough that he doesn’t need to nibble in tight situations. The 20 year old posted a 3.45 FIP while allowing just 85 hits in 100.0 innings. The right-hander also tossed up a strikeout rate of 10.80 K/9. He also allowed just four homers (0.36 HR/9) despite a scary ground-ball rate just shy of 40%. Martin may not get away with so many fly balls at higher levels so he has some adjustments to make. Even so, he’s an exciting arm to watch in 2010.

3. Andrew Lambo, OF, Double-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 4th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

After tearing the minor leagues apart for much of the first two years of his career, Lambo hit a rough patch in double-A in ’09. He hit .256/.311/.407 in 492 at-bats, while playing much of the season as a 20 year old. The corner outfielder was not completely overpowered, though, and he posted a strikeout rate of just 19.3%, and his walk rate was a modest 7.2%. He possesses more raw power than what we witnessed by his .150 ISO last season (The 39 doubles are a good indication of that). Despite swinging from the left side, he showed better results against southpaws: .785 vs .690 OPS. Once he matures as a hitter, Lambo should be an offensive threat. Defensively, he’s an average-at-best fielder who may move permanently to first base.

4. Josh Lindblom, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: June 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Purdue University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, splitter, change-up

With good, but not great, results in the starting rotation, Lindblom was shifted to a relief role upon his promotion to triple-A in ’09. He started off the season in double-A where he allowed 55 hits in 57.1 innings of work. His strikeout rate was a respectable 7.22 K/9 and his FIP was 3.50 (4.71 ERA). In triple-A, he allowed 34 hits in 39.0 innings and his strikeout rate rose to 8.31 K/9. His walk rate was solid all year long at 2.20 in double-A and 2.77 in triple-A. The right-hander’s ground-ball rate was average. Lindblom projects to be more of a set-up man as opposed to a game-changing closer. He deserves another shot in the rotation.

5. Scott Elbert, LHP, Majors
DOB: August 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2004 1st round – Missouri HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

It seems like Elbert has been around forever, thanks to a long list of injuries and control issues. The southpaw, now 24, has spent parts of the past two seasons in the Majors and now appears poised to spend the bulk of the season in the Dodgers’ big-league bullpen. Elbert has a slightly-above-average fastball for a lefty and he pairs that with a solid breaking ball, which is death against left-handed batters (.162 batting average in the minors in ’09). He needs to cut down on his home-runs-allowed in the Majors (six in 25.2 innings) if he’s going to have success. Elbert is at worst a LOOGY, and at best a set-up man, but that’s a pretty steep drop from the potential he had coming out of high school.

6. Chris Withrow, RHP, Double-A
DOB: April 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Just 20, Withrow reached double-A in ’09 and should return there at least for the first half of 2010. The right-hander began the year in high-A where he made 19 appearances while posting a 2.96 FIP. He allowed 80 hits in 86.1 innings and showed rocky control with a walk rate of 4.69 BB/9. His strikeout rate, though, was good at 10.95 K/9 and he allowed just three homers despite a ground-ball rate below 40%. In double-A, Withrow’s walk rate improved to 3.95 BB/9 but his strikeout rate dropped to 8.56 K/9 and his ground-ball rate remained below 40%. His stuff isn’t electric and he projects as more of a No. 3 starter.

7. John Ely, RHP, Double-A
DOB: May 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Miami University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Despite jumping from high-A to double-A between ’08 and ’09, Ely showed improvements in a number of categories. The right-hander saw his batting-average-allowed drop from .257 to .241, his FIP went from 4.02 to 3.33 and his home-run rate slipped from 1.11 to 0.52 HR/9. Ely’s walk rate of 2.88 BB/9 was almost identical to his ’08 number, but his strikeout rate worsened from 8.30 to 7.20 K/9. The knock on Ely has been his lack of a consistent knock-out pitch. Despite his average stuff, the former Sox prospect could succeed at the Majors thanks to his good command and solid ground-ball rates (+50%).

8. Trayvon Robinson, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 10th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Signed as a raw prep athlete, Robinson took a big step forward in his development this past season. The outfielder repeated high-A ball but he hit a solid .306/.375/.500, thanks in part to a .391 BABIP. Although his strikeout rate remains high, he significantly improved his power output with his ISO going from .109 in ’08 to .194 in ’09. His walk rate just shy of 10%, which helped him get on base more often and he stole 43 bases in 61 tries (both career highs). Robinson received a 19-game taste of double-A and should return there in 2010. If his power spike is for real, he could develop into a 20-30 player at the MLB level.

9. Allen (Carl) Webster, RHP, Rookie
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 18th round – North Carolina HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

In just his second year removed from high school, Webster showed that he was a man amongst boys in rookie ball. The right-hander posted a FIP below 2.30 and he struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings. His walk rate was also good for his age at less than 2.50 BB/9. He did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park by allowing just one homer in 68.2 innings of work, despite an average ground-ball rate. Webster clearly got tired at the end of the season by allowing a batting average of .353 and a strikeout rate of just 5.25 K/9 in his last few starts. He’ll have to learn to pace himself even more in full-season ball in 2010.

10. Ivan DeJesus Jr., SS, Disable List
DOB: May 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 2nd round – Puerto Rico HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

There isn’t too much to say about DeJesus Jr’s ’09 season as it lasted just four games, thanks to a broken leg. Playing at double-A in ’08, he showed a good stick with a line of .324/.419/.423 in 463 at-bats. He has a good eye and walked 13.6% of the time. He also stole 16 bases in 18 tries but it remains to be seen how, if at all, the injury will affect his running. DeJesus owns a slick glove and should be the club’s shortstop of the future, unless Gordon has something to say about it.

Up Next: The Oakland Athletics

There were so many good questions raised in the comments section of my post yesterday on Aaron Hill that I thought addressing some of them deserved a follow-up post. The bulk of the questions come from former BtB overlord Sky Kalkman:

Would love to see some further breakdowns. Did Hill see more or fewer pitches over each part of the plate (or outside)? Did he see different types of pitches, and different locations of different pitches? Did he swing at certain pitches/locations more often or less often? Did pitchers’ approaches change throughout the year?

Addressing Sky’s first point:

Yes, it does seem that pitchers pitch farther outside to Hill. The peak location is a good third of a foot farther away from Hill than to the average righty. Based on the results of yesterday’s post, this is a good idea: Hill crushes those inside pitches.

Skipping to Kalkman’s question about whether Hill swings at certain locations of pitches more than others:

Generally Hill has a higher swing rate than average righty and this is partially true for middle-in pitches, but as pitches get farther away from him he swings at about league-average rate. So it does look like Hill swings more often at the inside pitches that he has the most success with.

Sky’s last question was, “Did pitchers’ approaches change throughout the year?” This is very interesting. If you look at Hill’s FB% numbers you can see that he has been seeing fewer and fewer fastballs since 2006. But if you split it out by month for 2009:

March/April  .525
May          .550
June         .519
July         .572
August       .596
Sept./Oct.   .590

For some reason, in July, pitchers reversed this trend. After he had already crushed 19 HRs through the first half of the year pitchers started throwing fastballs to him more often. I poked around some more, but could not find a big change in where those pitches were thrown. This is an interesting trend and something that could be looked into further.

Ewan, another commenter, suggests:

One thing I noticed about watching Hill a lot last season is he is very good at fouling off pitches on the outer half for someone his size and who used a heavier bat. Because of this he almost forces the pitcher to throw him something a bit more hittable.

Here is the fouls per pitch by horizontal location:

This does not look to be the case. Hill does foul off a lot of inside pitches — which makes sense because he pulls them so much — but on outside pitches he fouls off pitches at about a league-average rate.

Finally, Vivaelpujols had a great suggestion:

Maybe you could also chart the vertical location in the strike zone, as a function of the depth of the plate. So home runs on pitches around 3.5 pz would extend to the furthest part of the square part of the plate. Home runs on pitches at 1.5 pz would only extend to the front of the plate.

What do you all think? I like it. Most of his HRs are in a fairly narrow band, but he has that one HR that was relatively up in the zone.

Thanks to all the commenters for their insightful observations and questions. Obviously even this still just scratches the surface. I have ignored an analysis of the height of the pitches, beyond this most recent HR graph; looking at performance and location of each pitch type separately; and a host of other questions.

The Royals haven’t gotten much of a return on their 2 year, $9 million investment in Kyle Farnsworth so far. Rather than proving to be a relief ace to stabilize the bullpen, he’s continued to be his enigmatic self, with the results never living up to the raw stuff behind them.

Now, the Royals are going to try something a bit different – give him a shot at starting. He’ll come to camp in the mix for the 5th starter’s job, as pitching coach Bob McClure wants to see how he’ll adjust to using his arsenal in longer outings. Reliever to starter conversions generally don’t go very well, as most bullpen guys are there for a reason, but I like this idea, and I think there’s a decent chance it may work.

The main difference in ability between a starter and most middle relievers is the ability to get opposite handed hitters out. A huge majority of relief guys are some sort of specialist, often throwing a fastball/slider mix that is dominant against their same handed hitters but with nothing to offer batters from the other side. They get selectively used by their managers to enhance their strengths and limit their weaknesses, and can be effective in that role, but they would simply be exposed if they were not able to face a majority of hitters from the same side that they throw.

Farnsworth is not that type of reliever. Here are his career L/R splits:

vs RHB: 3.43 BB/9, 9.45 K/9, 41% GB%, 3.68 xFIP
vs LHB: 4.63 BB/9, 10.41 K/9, 36% GB%, 3.89 xFIP

His strikeout rate is actually higher against left-handed hitters, which is unusual for a power righty. He’s still better against RHBs, as the strikeouts don’t offset the higher walk and lower groundball rates, but the difference isn’t huge. He’s not the type of pitcher who is going to fall apart when the opposing manager stacks the line-up with left-handed bats.

There’s also reasons to be encouraged that he may have learned something last year. As McClure notes in the linked article, they got him to start throwing both a two-seam and a four-seam fastball last year, and it significantly changed his pitch mix.

BIS classified the new pitch as a cutter, but it doesn’t really matter too much whether it’s a two-seam or cut fastball – it’s certainly a departure from what he’d been doing previously. For most of his career, he threw ~70% four seam fastballs and 30% sliders. Last year, he threw 50% four seam fastballs, 20% sliders, and 30% cutter/two-seamer.

This new wrinkle paid dividends. He’d been an extreme flyball guy most of his career, which was one of the driving causes behind his home run problems. With his new lower velocity fastball, he posted a 46% GB% in 2009, drastically reducing his long ball issues. Thanks to the limiting of his biggest problem, he posted a 3.10 xFIP, his lowest since 2005.

In a lot of ways, Farnsworth is reminiscent of Ryan Dempster, another power reliever with command problems who flourished with a move to the rotation. It’s not wise to expect that kind of outcome, but there are reasons to believe that Farnsworth could find success in the conversion. The stuff is good enough, especially with his new pitch mix, and it’s certainly worth the experiment.

The Royals take a lot of crap from us, but I’ll applaud them for recognizing an opportunity here. Farnsworth could justify his contract, and then some, if this works.

Four days into the splits debut at FanGraphs, I think we understand the need to exercise caution with using these small sample numbers. The left/right splits, for instance, need to be regressed to the league averages until a high number of data has been collected. However, if we trust Minor League numbers enough to help us project players at the Major League level, I believe we can use splits at the Minor League level to help in our understanding of a player. Obviously, studies need to be done to find the correlation of splits at the Minor League and Major League level before I can say this with any certainty. Luckily, we now have the data to do so, thanks to the splits here at FanGraphs, and the wealth of information at Jeff Sackmann’s MinorLeagueSplits.com. I’m not here to do that kind of heavy lifting today, but to show the direction of analysis I believe we can achieve with the numbers currently available.

We are taught to essentially ignore the splits posted by rookies, because we would need to regress those numbers so much to have any certainty in them. But if a player had 1,200 more plate appearances in the Minor Leagues, shouldn’t we trust those splits more than a broader league average? Today, I took the seven rookies that had at least 300 PAs in 2009 and 700 more in the Minor Leagues, and I want to compare the splits congruent between this site and Minor League Splits: batted ball info by handedness. I believe this will inform our comprehension of each player’s Major League splits, and our projection of their performance going forward. (LD-L is a player’s line drive percentage versus left-handed pitchers. You can figure out the rest.)

Chris Coghlan, 2B, Florida Marlins

Level   AB    LD-L%   GB-L%   FB-L%   LD-R%   GB-R%   FB-R%
MLB     504   18.9    47.2    34.0    23.7    47.8    28.5
MiLB    1117  17.4    45.5    36.7    18.2    43.9    37.7

What Changed: Many fewer fly balls vs. RHPs.

Going Forward: Coghlan’s batted ball profile against LHPs barely changed from the Minor Leagues to the Majors, and I see little reason he can’t continue to be successful against southpaws. Against right-handers, I don’t believe he’s a hitter that will routinely post a 20% line drive rate, so I think you’ll see some regression in BABIP this season, and I’ll think we’ll have that to point to.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

Level   AB    LD-L%   GB-L%   FB-L%   LD-R%   GB-R%   FB-R%
MLB     480   27.2    48.5    24.3    20.1    57.4    22.5
MiLB    1600  17.2    58.8    23.7    14.4    58.3    27.0

What Changed: Traded 10% of groundballs for line drives vs. LHPs.

Going Forward: I would like to believe Andrus’ aging and development led to the change, but he’s just not a guy that can sustain a 27% line drive rate against any kind of pitcher. He should maintain his performance against right-handed pitching, if not improve, to compensate a regression vs. LHPs

Colby Rasmus, CF, St. Louis Cardinals

Level   AB    LD-L%   GB-L%   FB-L%   LD-R%   GB-R%   FB-R%
MLB     474   14.1    41.0    44.9    21.1    33.0    45.9
MiLB    1569  15.1    34.8    49.8    18.0    33.8    47.7

What Changed: More groundballs, less elevation vs. LHPs.

Going Forward: Scouts have criticized Rasmus’ approach against southpaws for years, and a change in process didn’t do much to his results in 2009. The Cardinals should see if Rasmus can start making harder contact against lefties early in the season, but if contention stands in the way of Rasmus’ development, he should be platooned quickly.

Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Level   AB    LD-L%   GB-L%   FB-L%   LD-R%   GB-R%   FB-R%
MLB     433   20.5    37.5    42.0    17.9    43.9    38.2
MiLB    1964  15.8    40.8    43.4    15.5    49.1    34.9 

What Changed: More line drives.

Going Forward: This is the most difficult case, because I don’t see a real reason for regression. McCutchen has been a scouts favorite for a long time, dating back to some of his struggles in the lower levels. Nothing about this batted ball profile is out of line — he’ll be a great case for personal development vs. regression to Minor League standard.

Gerardo Parra, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Level   AB    LD-L%   GB-L%   FB-L%   LD-R%   GB-R%   FB-R%
MLB     455   11.7    64.9    23.4    20.1    49.7    30.3
MiLB    1402   8.7    61.4    29.9    12.7    54.3    32.9

What Changed: More Power vs. RHP, not enough vs. LHP.

Going Forward: Parra should be platooned from Day One of Spring Training, no regression to the league, or further chances at development needed. The stigma against platoon players is such that people will think I “hate” Parra, but it’s not true — he’s becoming a legitimate threat against right-handed pitching. You could do worse than a Jacque Jones or Michael Tucker career.

Everth Cabrera, SS, San Diego Padres

Level   AB    LD-L%   GB-L%   FB-L%   LD-R%   GB-R%   FB-R%
MLB     377   10.1    72.2    17.7    16.7    58.9    24.5
MiLB    877   13.6    67.1    18.8    12.1    59.8    27.6

What Changed: Even more groundballs vs. LHP.

Going Forward: Cabrera will be this type of player forever — bashing the ball into the ground — more when batting left-handed than the opposite. With game-changing speed, Cabrera just needs to right his defensive woes to become a very manageable shortstop. And he’ll need it, because you’re not going to win long-term with this offensive strategy.

Nolan Reimold, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Level   AB    LD-L%   GB-L%   FB-L%   LD-R%   GB-R%   FB-R%
MLB     358   16.3    51.0    32.7    13.3    46.7    40.0
MiLB    1512  14.6    34.8    50.6    11.1    40.4    48.4

What Changed: Drastic fluctuations in flyball-to-groundball ratios against both pitchers.

Going Forward: Essentially, it looks like Reimold translates a whole lot of infield flies (career 18.0% in the minors) into groundballs against left-handed pitchers. This actually is a step forward, and as a result, his numbers on fly balls (.453 wOBA) were very good now that he wasn’t mixing in an infield flies a fifth of the time. Still, a high IFFB% against right-handed pitchers, so that split bears watching in 2010.

Note: I generally ignored the percents difference between fly balls and line drives between the Minor League and Major League level. It seems that so-called “fliners” are classified different, and I believe are marked as line drives less in the Minor Leagues. Something else to study, I suppose.

Tomorrow: Pitchers!

The Giants added some Madison Bumgarner insurance on Wednesday, signing SP Todd Wellemeyer to a one year minor-league contract with a base salary of $1 million if he makes the team. Wellemeyer figures to battle with Bumgarner and possibly Kevin Pucetas and Joe Martinez for the 5th spot in the San Francisco rotation.

With a very solid front four in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Barry Zito already in place, the Giants have the makings of another excellent run preventing team. Still, depth could be a big problem going forward. If it turns out Bumgarner isn’t ready, Pucetas or Martinez could step in and deliver acceptable, albeit not particularly desirable, production in a 5th starter role. However, if one of the Giants front four went down for an extended period of time, a rotation with both Pucetas and Martinez would be exposed quickly, as both are projected for a 5.00+ ERA. Acceptable out of a 5th starter, but not out of a 4th.

Inviting Todd Wellemeyer to camp is a step in the right direction. With a non-guaranteed contract, the Giants assume none of the risk that Wellemeyer’s 2009 injuries are lingering. If Wellemeyer returns towards his 2009 form, he could quite easily post a sub-5.00 FIP and be a one-win type of starter, both a huge bargain at $1M and a good bridge to Bumgarner.

However, this is certainly no guarantee. Even if the injuries aren’t affecting him any more, Wellemeyer was never a great pitcher. His only truly productive year came in 2008, which is also the only year of his career in which he’s posted a BB/9 below 4.00. It’s possible that regression merely hit Wellemeyer hard in 2009, and his true talent level is simply not that of a major league quality pitcher.

For that reason, the Giants shouldn’t consider themselves ready for camp in terms of SP depth. They don’t need to make a huge financial investment, but there are players like John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez still available who likely wouldn’t cost much money and could push them closer to contention. CHONE has the Giants within 7-9 games of the division and CAIRO gives them a non-zero chance at the playoffs.

If the money is available, the Giants should bring in another quality SP to camp. Wellemeyer adds some depth, but given the risk surrounding all their potential 5th starters, Brian Sabean should not be complacent.

Chien-Ming Wang is probably signing with his new team sometime today or tomorrow. With that in mind, let’s have some fun(!) with his splits and his full season totals.

Wang’s career ERA away from Yankee Stadium is 4.57 in more than 300 innings. His ERA at Yankee Stadium is 3.81 in nearly 365 innings. Clearly he pitched better in the Bronx, except he really didn’t. His FIP at home was actually poorer (4.03) than his road FIP (3.95), although his home xFIP was better and the disparity is nowhere near as drastic as his ERA foretells. As former RotoGraphs contributor – who’s since moved on to greener pastures – Peter Bendix put it: “Nothing Wang with Chien-Ming”.

Here’s a small sample size-influenced tidbit that holds next to nothing in means of predictive value and is simply an observation. In high leverage situations, Wang saw his infield fly ball rate fall off a cliff. Well, that makes sense, since he is a groundballer. Maybe he just zoned in on pitching down in the zone? Nope, or more accurately, the numbers don’t reflect it. His groundball percentage was actually its lowest in high leverage situations. At the same time, so was his home run per fly balls ratio.

Moving away from the splits, Wang is an interesting pitcher. His strikeout totals are unimpressive and his method of pitching combined with a poor infield defense has disaster written all over it. Still, Wang has 670 Major League innings and a career 4.22 xFIP. Yeah, there’s a chance he never recovers to his old form or even to a useful piece, but for what the rumored costs are, it’s a worthwhile risk.

Even if he leaves his heart and horrible puns in New York.

Update: The 2010 Second Opinion is Now Available!

I’m pleased to announce that FanGraphs will be dipping its toes into the publishing world with its very first publication: The FanGraphs Second Opinion: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Companion, or for short, the 2010 Second Opinion.

First let’s get to what’s in it:

– Over 400 in-depth player profiles written by many of the FanGraphs and RotoGraphs contributors you’re already familiar with.

– Articles covering: closer situations, players coming back from injuries, sophomore players to watch, 2010 fantasy prospects, impact trades, the big questions for 2010, and something that Carson wrote, where he answers your questions before you even ask them!

– Stats & Graphs: Each player profile is accompanied by a stat box with 10 very useful stats for both fantasy and real-life player evaluation including spark graphs showing career trends.

– Team previews: Each team is previewed for next season, giving you the rundown on what to expect from a fantasy and real-life standpoint.

The book will first be available for download in PDF format late February for the low price of $7.95.  In addition to the PDF, you will have access to all the information in the book on FanGraphs.com when logged in to your FanGraphs account.  This information will include the written player profiles which will be integrated into the stats pages and all the articles and team previews in the book.

In addition, some of you may have noticed that FanGraphs has been contributing to ESPN Insider (ESPN’s all sports premium content) this past month with more to come.  If you purchase the book and are logged in, you’ll also have access to these articles and future articles we publish on ESPN Insider, on FanGraphs.com, through March 1st, 2011.

As we get closer to the book’s release, there will be more information and sample pages available.