General Manager: Tony Reagins
Farm Director: Abe Flores
Scouting Director: Eddie Bane

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Randal Grichuk, OF, Texas HS
1. Mike Trout, OF, New Jersey HS
1S. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, California HS
1S. Garrett Richards, RHP, Oklahoma
1S. Tyler Kehrer, LHP, Eastern Illinois
2. Pat Corbin, LHP, Florida JC
3. Josh Spence, LHP, Arizona State (Did not sign)

Grichuk was not in a lot of first-round conversations prior to the draft, but the organization obviously coveted his raw power. The outfielder had solid numbers is his debut but he was aided by an extremely high BABIP of .418. Overall, his triple-slash numbers were .322/.352/.551 in 236 at-bats. He showed his power potential with an ISO of .229, as well as seven homers and 10 triples. Speed-wise, he was nabbed four times in 10 steal attempts and is considered a below-average runner, despite the double-digit triples. As expected for a young slugger, Grichuk’s strikeout rate was high at 27.1%, while his walk rate was disappointing at 3.5%. Defensively, he’s a modest left fielder.

Trout, like Grichuk, had a stellar debut and also was helped by his BABIP (.430). His triple-slash line in rookie ball was .360/.418/.506. The center-fielder possesses less power (.146 ISO) than his teammate but he is a better all-around player both and a better defender. Trout also has good base running abilities and he stole 13 bases in 15 tries. He received a five-game trial in low-A ball to end the year.

Skaggs made just five appearances after signing but he made an impact by striking out 13 batters, with just two walks, in 10.0 innings of work. Richards had a nice debut, as witnessed by his 2.01 FIP, although he was a college product playing in rookie ball. The right-hander showed excellent control (1.02 BB/9) in 35.1 innings, but he was a little too hittable (37) and his strikeout rate was modest (7.64 K/9). In reality, his low walk rates may have been the result of over-aggressive hitters swinging at everything close to the plate.

Another college product in rookie ball, Kehrer allowed a lot of hits (57 in 55.0 innings) and he showed that his control needs a little work (3.60 BB/9). His strikeout rate was solid at 9.33 K/9 and his FIP (3.91) was better than his ERA (4.75). Corbin may have suffered the same fate as Richards, as a pitcher with a low walk rate (2.14 BB/9) who allowed a lot of hits (59). He was certainly not helped by his BABIP of .385 and his 3.61 FIP was much nicer than his ERA of 5.05.

2008 1st Round: None
2. Tyler Chatwood, RHP, California HS
3. Ryan Chaffee, RHP, Florida JC
3S. Zach Cone, OF, Georgia HS (Did not sign)
11x – Rolando Gomez, SS, Florida HS

Chatwood was shown enough potential that he’s on the club’s Top 10 list. Chaffee had a respectable first full season in low-A ball and he posted good strikeout numbers (9.36 K/9) but his walk rate was high (5.03 BB/9). His walk rate of 54.7% is also encouraging. Gomez returned to rookie ball in ’09 and he had a nice year and a triple-slash line of .304/.408/.464 in 181 at-bats. He stole 12 bases in 16 tries and showed a willingness to take a walk (14.7 BB%), which is great since he projects to be a top-of-the-order hitter.

Will Smith (7th round) was a nice grab. The left-hander doesn’t have great stuff, but he’s posted solid numbers in his career, including 109 hits allowed in 115.0 innings and a walk rate of 1.88 BB/9 in low-A in ’09.

2007 1st Round: None
1S. Jonathan Bachanov, RHP, Florida HS
3. Matt Harvey, RHP, Connecticut HS (Did not sign)

After some early struggles (and health concerns) Bachanov has returned strong and made the club’s Top 10 list. Shortstop Andrew Romine (5th round), older brother to the Yankees’ Austin Romine, looks like a future utility player at the MLB level. Trevor Reckling (8th round) was a steal in his round and is one of the club’s best prospects. Outfielder Terrell Alliman (43rd round) is also worth keeping an eye on. He hit .307/.387/.396 with 12 steals in 202 rookie-ball at-bats in ’09.

2006 1st Round: Hank Conger, C, California HS
3. Russ Moldenhauer, OF, Texas HS (Did not sign)
9x – Nate Boman, LHP, San Diego
12x – Jordan Walden, RHP, Texas HS

Both Conger and Walden are high on the Top 10 list, as you’ll see tomorrow. First baseman Matt Sweeney (8th round) has battled injuries but he has potential. He was traded to Tampa Bay in the Scott Kazmir deal last season. Boman never made it back from injuries. Outfielder Chris Pettit (19th) has the chance to be a successful Major Leaguer.

Up Next: The Los Angeles Angels Top 10 Prospects

As you’ve probably noticed, David unveiled split data as the newest addition to the site yesterday. This is something that has been in the works for quite a while, and David worked long and hard on getting this on the site. For the first time, we’ll be able to really break down how a player performs against different pitcher types, as things like xFIP by handedness of batter have not previously been available.

However, as RJ noted a bit this morning, we do want to encourage wise use of split data, because these are the types of numbers that can be abused at times. In practicality, any split is going to be a smaller subset of a larger sample, and when you reduce your sample size, you increase the amount of noise in the number. There’s no way around that.

In fact, you can slice and dice numbers enough ways to always find some way that a player performed abnormally. Whether it’s batting average against lefties on Tuesdays or FIP in alternating months, these are the kinds of numbers that really mean nothing. They are the kinds of splits that give rise to things like the “lies, damn lies, and statistics” cliche. When looking at split data, we’d suggest limiting your conclusions to effects that are well known – platoons, parks, pull or opposite field results, etc…

Finally, you also want to keep the overall performance of the league in a specific situation in mind when looking at split data. We’ll get league averages by situation on the site in the not too distant future, but here’s a sneak peak at some batted ball league averages (2002-2009), so that you can compare players against a baseline for each type of struck ball:

Bunts: .376/.376/.377, .336 wOBA
Grounders: .231/.231/.253, .214 wOBA
Flies: .217/.212/.602, .328 wOBA
Liners: .727/.723/.974, .734 wOBA

It really is stunning how important hitting line drives is. Unless you’re regularly pounding fly balls over the wall, any other batted ball type is just not very productive. In fact, when you look at the BABIP split for fly balls, you see that 87 percent of non-HR flies result in outs. Line drives are where it’s at.

We’ll have more on the proper way to use split data over the next few days. Enjoy them, find interesting nuggets hidden away, but also remember to use them judiciously. You don’t want to voluntarily cut your sample size in half if you don’t have a reason to.

Exceptions to the rule noted, when we look at the collegiate players drafted in the first round each June, most have one similarity: they either spent the previous summer playing in the Cape Cod League, or with the USA Baseball Collegiate National team. While players have turned down the national team for the competitiveness and exposure of the Cape, there is still no greater honor in college baseball than being selected to represent the country in competitions like the World Baseball Challenge. The alumni speak to the selectivity of the fraternity: Mark Teixeira, Ryan Zimmerman, Geoff Jenkins, Robin Ventura, Matt Wieters, Stephen Strasburg, and many, many more.

In 2008, the team flexed their dominance with a perfect 24-0 record on the heels of a 0.88 team ERA. So, if you don’t believe the 2010 draft is going to be shallower than last year’s, look no further than the 2009 team ERA: 2.16. Furthermore, the team’s two best pitchers, Vanderbilt’s Sonny Gray and UCLA’s Gerrit Cole, will not be eligible for the draft until 2011. The team still managed a 19-5 record, however, thanks to an offense that scored 57 more runs than their predecessors. Considering the glut of quality draft-eligible position players, there is no question we will see the stars of the USA Baseball offense drafted early and often in June. And there was no bigger star on this team than Cal State Fullerton junior shortstop Christian Colon.

In reviewing the history of this team, there is a case that no player has had as complete a summer with this squad than Colon did in 2009. In 94 at-bats, the six-foot shortstop struck out just six times, versus 11 walks, 34 hits, 11 extra-base hits, and 31 runs — good for a .362/.459/.617 batting line. While the shortstop did commit seven errors in 23 games at shortstop, scouts still gave positive reports to his range and hands up the middle. Colon is now looking as a possible top twenty pick in the draft, and will compete with USA teammate Rick Hague (Rice) for the honor of first drafted shortstop.

In 125 starts over two years at Cal State Fullerton, Colon stole 28 bases in 39 attempts. In 23 games with the USA Baseball team, he went 24-for-26 on the basepaths. This speaks to two things: first, there is untapped potential left with Colon, and two, the Japan, Canada and Guatemala Collegiate teams’ catchers must have not been great shakes. Still, Colon has above-average speed, and is harnessing his ability to translate it to stolen base success.

Major League Scouting Directors love drafting hitters with potential to lead off one day — I once even did a series on this — and Colon certainly could be at the next level. If we include his USA Baseball stats and his two years at CSF, Colon has just 55 strikeouts (versus 54 walks) in 592 at-bats. He also gets on base at a higher clip because his stance is prone to hit by pitches, now with 37 plunks over two-plus seasons. If the whole package doesn’t read a touch like Craig Biggio to you, I’d be surprised.

Other notes on Team USA”s finest:

— Scouts love summer baseball because it puts players on an even plane, not to mention using a wooden bat. So it is no exaggeration to say that for outfielder Bryce Brentz and right-hander Asher Wojciechowski, hailing from Middle Tennessee State and The Citadel respectively, those baseball games in red, white and blue were the most important of their life. Both thorougly impressed scouts, with Brentz hitting .366/.416/.563 and Wojciechowski sporting a 29/4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 innings. Brentz is a lock for the first round, while Wojciechowski will have to prove the command problems that have plagued him in the past are behind him.

— Every summer, the team manager and assistant coaches are allowed to bring 1-2 of their own players. When Tim Corbin brought Pedro Alvarez and David Price no one blinked an eye, but oftentimes, the players are overmatched and their inclusion smells of nepotism. This summer was interesting, because when Tulane coach Rick Jones brought right-hander Nick Pepitone, it didn’t seem like he belonged. But Pepitone raised his profile considerably by dominating in international play. Pepitone allowed just two hits in 14.2 innings as the team’s set-up man, and should function as Tulane’s closer this spring. Pepitone brings good tilt to a hard sinker and slider combination, and could be one of the first relievers off the board.

— File this away, but we already have a wonderful argument developing for the top of the 2011 draft board between Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon and UCLA ace Gerrit Cole. The latter dominated on the national team, allowing just 11 hits in 34 innings. Cole, like Stephen Strasburg before him, can pitch into the high 90s until the late innings, and has a nasty wipe-out breaking pitch. Cole’s decision to not sign with the Yankees as a first rounder out of high school is looking better by the day, as he is in for a huge payday in 16 months.

The Houston Astros are certainly in a down phase in their history. After winning 84+ games every year from 2001 to 2005, the Astros’ age and lack of talent caught up to them. From 2006 to 2009, the Astros have been outscored by 232 runs. The only hope has come in the form of late runs in 2006 and 2008, giving management the idea that a playoff roster was in place, when in fact the last time the Astros even put an average team on the field was 2006, and even their 74 win season last year was overachieving, based on third-order wins, Pythagorean record, and team WAR.

With little help waiting on the farm and little talent already on board, most teams would treat 2010 as a lost season, and attempt to rebuild through trades and freely available talent. The Astros did not go down that route this winter. They did only bring in five free agents, but they committed 25 million dollars between the five, and one of the contracts was over multiple years.

Between these five players (Pedro Feliz, Brandon Lyon, Jason Michaels, Brett Myers, and Cory Sullivan), the Astros brought in only a projected 4.5 wins over the course of this deal, according to CHONE, and that’s assuming that Lyon maintains his projected .7 WAR production over the entire course of his three-year contract. Yes, in a market where the dollar value for wins essentially bottomed out, Ed Wade and Drayton McLane spent approximately 5.5 million dollars per win.

That’s without even accounting for the fact that the Astros are at a very low point on the win curve. With Drayton McLane attempting to sell the team, the Astros low on the win curve and desperately needing some talented draft picks and international talent to infuse in the system, the Astros spent 25 million on a minimal upgrade. These are the kind of management gaffes that lead to extended periods of mediocrity. The Astros need change, and they need it fast.

As part of this website’s ongoing attempt to provide white-hot baseballing analysis, we’re excited to announce the addition of a new horse to our figurative stable: FanGraphs Audio.

Herein, we offer our inaugural audio presentation — available for your listening pleasure after the jump. Today’s guests are Messrs Dave Cameron, Matt Klaassen, and Erik Manning. Come join us as we break a bottle of champagne over the bow of this ungainly, but good-natured, ship.

Also, as you listen, please consider a few points:

1. The radio arm of FanGraphs is still very much an experiment. In fact, to say it’s an “arm” at all is, perhaps, giving it too much credit. Perhaps it’s more like a clavicle — kinda near the arm, but not quite there.

2. Having said that, we’re very excited about the project, and eager to make it a legitimate complement to the excellent print content already available here. You, the reader (listener?), have played an invaluable role in this website’s ascent to excellence. Please do not refrain from offering two or three or five of your cents below.

3. Our recording technology isn’t exactly state of the art quite yet. For example, we recorded the following by means of a walkie-talkie set and reel-to-reel I found in my parents’ basement. In other words: we’re working on it.

4. Dave Cameron is an indestructible sabermetric cyborg. Just, be ready for that before you listen.

Without any more of this ado…
Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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As most of you are probably aware, player pages now feature splits. As such, we’re beginning a splits blitz which should educate our readers as to the many different usages of the newest toy. Home and road splits are probably the most commonly used and misused of all splits. Here I would like to show why just using career home/road splits to evaluate a batter isn’t a good idea.

A quick Google search of Matt Holliday + home/road splits brings back multiple results from this very chunk of the internet. For his career, Holliday has hit .351/.420/.632 at home and .284/.353/.455 on the road in 1,860 and 1,778 plate appearances apiece. It’s fair to say that he has performed better at home. Holliday has spent the majority of his career – read: every season but his last – playing home games inside of Coors Field.

That factoid helps explain some of the difference between his .442 home wOBA and .353 road wOBA, but not all. Far too often folks point out a player hitting worse on the road as an indictment on his talent, or as a doubt in his ability. The reality is that most players hit worse on the road. In 2009, the average major leaguer hit .267/.340/.430 at home and .258/.326/.406 on the road. The exact reasoning can be debated for eons; the point is the home field advantage does exist and Holliday was no exception to the rule:

Home: 8.9% BB, 17.1% SO, .281 ISO, .378 BABIP, 20.4% HR/FB, .442 wOBA
Away: 8.9% BB, 20.4% SO, .171 ISO, .329 BABIP, 12.3% HR/FB, .353 wOBA

Leading up to his trade, people referenced the career numbers – in part as an adjustment to the small sample sizes naturally associated by slicing and dicing an already small dataset. In theory, 1,000 plate appearances over five years is worth more than 600 over three, but when dealing with past data and attempting to find the true talent level of a player, we have to weigh the most recent data the heaviest, something lost in this method.

The other big issue was that people took the road numbers as gospel, applying no adjustments or considerations to the numbers and completely ignoring obvious factors. For instance, Holliday’s road numbers excluded Coors. Meanwhile every other National League hitter would have those numbers included in their road totals. That means Holliday’s road numbers were naturally deflated just based on the ballparks he batted in.

Just using his career numbers, nobody would’ve predicted that Holliday could succeed to the tune of a .412 home wOBA in another environment, or that he would post a .367 road wOBA. That’s not to say that either of those numbers are his true talent levels, either. It is to say that while understanding park factors and how particular parks can affect batters (and pitchers) is important, that simply looking at career home/road splits as the gospel is not the best way to evaluate whether a batter is a figment of the park’s construction or simply behaving like most major leaguers.

I would recommend simply allowing the built-in park adjustments within projection systems do the math for you while exercising common sense in extreme cases.

For a couple years now I’ve wanted to get better splits up and running on FanGraphs, but other things have taken priority. We’ve had Lefty/Right and Home/Away splits in the graphs sections for almost four years, but never have there been any tabular splits.

In the player pages, there’s a new section called “Splits”. It’s right next to the season stats tab:

Give it a click and you’ll have access to Lefty/Righty, Home/Away, Monthly, Batted Ball, Location, and Leverage splits, with the full selection of stats from the “Standard”, “Advanced” and “Batted Ball” sections.

You can then browse the splits by individual season, comparing one split to another, or you can take a look at the career tab, where you’ll be able to see how a player has fared in a particular split over time. If you just want to see the career total lines, you can collapse the individual season by clicking on the “Show Season Splits” button.

Splits are currently available for all Major League players dating back to 2002. As always, if you have any feedback, or notice anything’s not working as expected, just let me know.

According to Wiktionary, the definition of “enigmatic” is

1. Pertaining to an enigma.
2. Mysterious.
3. Defying description.
4. (variant) Enigmatical.

Is “Enigmatical” really a word? Who cares? I think it fits as a nickname: The Enigmatical Kenny Williams.

I am not mocking Chicago White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams. I’m mocking myself. I have a terrible track record when it comes to thinking about Williams’ moves. When he makes a move I think is silly, it ends up working out. When he makes a move I like, it blows up. So it is with some trepidation that I am posting on Chicago’s designated hitter hole.

The White Sox are built to win now: trading for Jake Peavy, acquiring Alex Rios, and adding questionable stopgaps like Juan Pierre in left and Mark Teahen at third. It’s not an unrealistic hope. The Twins were the class of the AL Central even before adding Orlando Hudson. But with Peavy, Mark Buerhle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd, the Sox probably have the best starting rotation in the division, and the bullpen is strong. The position players don’t stand out as much, but they aren’t dreadful — Carlos Quentin is a good hitter when healthy, Gordon Beckham is a budding star, and Rios, Alexei Ramirez, and Paul Konerko are solid performers. They’re probably the only other team in the Central with a shot, but it is a legitimate shot.

That makes the DH situation puzzling. The White Sox decided to pass on Jim Thome, who then signed a cheap contract with the Twins. While I’m not sure how much a bench DH really helps the Twins (unless Delmon Young is terrible yet again despite CHONE’s favorable projection), not having him around really is going to hurt Chicago. It’s not clear who Chicago plans on playing at DH, but (Omar Vizquel jokes aside) from what I gather it will be a mix of Andruw Jones, Mark Kotsay, and occasionally guys like Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin. Perhaps power-hitting catching prospect Tyler Flowers will get some DH starts later in the season.

Seriously, a Jones/Kotsay platoon is the first option? Keep in mind that a league-average hitter is a replacement level DH. While Jones might still have his uses as a bench/platoon player, CHONE projects him as a below average hitter (.324 wOBA, -7/150 in context-neutral linear weights). If you think that’s bad, Kotsay projects at .297 wOBA, -16/150 context-neutral. That’s not useful at any of the positions Kotsay backs up at this point, much less DH. Even if efficiently platooned, that’s ugly. Heck, Mike Jacobs (-6) would be an upgrade, and would also keep the Chicago/Kansas City pipeline active.

They really didn’t have room for Thome? He probably adds just a few runs for the Twins, but he would be at least a one, maybe two win improvement over Jones/Kotsay. Of the remaining free agents, Russell Branyan seems like a great fit. He’s a +15/150 hitter. Even with doubts about his back, as a half-time player he probably adds a win. Carlos Delgado would be an improvement as a DH in a platoon situation, too. There are plenty of league-average hitters still out there who could meet the defensive “requirements” at DH.

The White Sox are in a situation where spending a bit on a DH who can hit better than Zombie Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay is logical, yet so far they’ve passed. But one thing I’ve learned over the last few years is to never count The Enigmatical Kenny Williams out.

Okay, time for the final installment of the Q&A series. You know the drill by now.

Kirk says: January 22, 2010 at 7:07 pm

I’m interested in the following:

– how prevelant is sabermetrics in Japanese baseball (in the fans, press, front offices)?

– there have been a lot of looks into how Japanese players and their stats translate over in the MLB, but it seems like a missed opportunity without examining how major or minor league players perform over in Japan. This would especially be useful for players like Julio Franco who went back and forth.

– I would imagine Oh has to be consensus GOAT, but has there been other, say, top 50 players of all time lists?

– how many MLB games are on Japan’s national TV (i.e., no specialty or strictly regional cabel channels) regularly?

1. I’ve talked a little bit about sabermetrics already, but there’s enough interest that I’ll put together an entire post on it at some point.

2. Clay Davenport has done some work in this area.

3. Sadaharu Oh is definitely the greatest of all time (868 home runs!). For a longer list of top players, I will again turn to Jim Albright’s work, which is in English and has a documented methodology behind it. I may have a nit-pick or two with his ordering, but it reads like a who’s who of Japanese baseball history.

4. I can’t say what the current status is based on personal experience. When I was living in Japan between 2000-2003, I only saw playoff and World Series games televised live on national terrestrial TV.

Malemute says: January 22, 2010 at 7:52 pm

Thanks.

What are some of your favorite player nicknames?

Did the Japanese writer who didn’t give Mauer a first place MVP vote this year ever give an explanation as to why he thought Cabrera was better?

Nickames: One of the fatter players, Takeya Nakamura, is known as Okawari-kun, which means “another round.” Michihiro Ogasawara is known as “Guts”, and my all-time favorite is “Gun”, which was Akinori Iwamura’s Yakult Swallows-era nickname.

If that writer ever explained voting against Mauer, I missed it.

Chris says:January 22, 2010 at 8:00 pm

It would be awesome if you put together a database where you could see potential stars in Japan and what year they are eligible to come to the US, or even an article highlighting a few guys over the next couple of years.

I have published lists of impending free agents and posting candidates at npbtracker.com for the last two years, and plan to do so again this year. And you’ll see content along those lines here as well.

Grady says:

January 22, 2010 at 8:02 pm (Edit)

I have a Bum Ho Lee jersey from when he was still with the Eagles. If I were to wear it in South Korea, would I be murdered? How closely does this compare to a rivalry in the MLB (a la Johnny Damon BOS to NYY scenario)?

Probably not. Lee left an absolute doormat of a team to take a huge pay raise in Japan. I don’t think Korean fans will begrudge him for that. That said, the Japanese and Koreans love beating each other. NPB has pretty much swept KBO in the league-vs-league games that have been played, but Korea has fared a little better in national games, winning the gold in the 2008 Olympics and going toe-to-toe with Japan in last year’s WBC. Last year’s WBC final was a huge event in both countries.

Ivan Grushenko says:

January 22, 2010 at 11:08 pm (Edit)

How competitive with MLB would the Japanese leagues (and Korean ones) if they eliminated the 2 foreigner limit? Could the Kyojin for example then field a team as good as the Phillies or even Yankees? Do they have that level of resources/fan support?

Actually, NPB teams are allowed to have up to four foreign players on their active rosters, with three in the game at any one time. There is also no limit to how many foreign players a team is allowed to have under contract, so most teams have a couple of foreign players in their farm systems. And finally, foreign players no longer count against the limit under certain conditions, such as after accumulating enough service time, or living in Japan for a certain number of years before turning pro. Tuffy Rhodes, Alex Ramirez, and Alex Cabrera have all played in Japan long enough to shed their “foreign player” status. The Korean teams are, as you said, restricted to two foreign players.

However, even if the limit were dropped, Japanese and Korean teams still wouldn’t be able to/try to compete with MLB clubs. Japanese teams have plenty of fan support, but there’s no way Alex Rodriguez’s best offer would ever come from Japan. Korean players are in a much lower tax bracket than their Japanese counterparts. The maximum KBO salary a few years ago was about $200k, I believe it’s gone up in the last year or two but salaries still max out in the mid-six figures. Last year Japan had over 100 players making $1m or more.

Alex says: January 27, 2010 at 4:44 pm

Hi Patrick,

I had the opportunity to spent about 2 weeks in Japan over the summer, and I got to see some games on TV. One thing I noticed was that in-game strategy seems to be much more conservative there. Especially in the later innings, if the leadoff man got on, the next few batters would all try to bunt him around the bases and play for that one run as opposed to going for a big inning. Is this a small sample size issue or do most teams play this way?

What you saw was very much reflective of the way most NPB teams play. There have been some recent exceptions, such as Bobby Valentine’s Chiba Lotte Marines and the 2008 Seibu Lions. This is actually a common source of culture clash between the standing NPB brass and Americans who manage NPB teams.

Matt B. says: January 27, 2010 at 8:58 pm (Edit)

What is the general reaction to the modest struggles (mostly) of Dice-K in North America? From what I have heard, he was a near legend over there and looking at his Japan numbers, I see why, but overall (IMO) has been a bit disappointing over here.

Matsuzaka was a very good professional player in Japan, but his legend status really came from his performance in the national Koshien high school baseball tournament. I’ve had more than one Japanese person tell me he looked out of shape in last year’s WBC and MLB season. I watched him a number of times in 2008, when he was actually pretty good, and what I noticed was that he still has good stuff, but he had a tendency to nibble until he had runners on base. I think that if he’s in shape in 2010 and is more aggressive on the mound, he’ll have a good year.

BGriffith says: January 27, 2010 at 11:46 pm

What would you recommend as a good, english websites for Japanese baseball? Basic stats, standings, that kind of thing.

Self-promotion time: right here of course, and my own site, www.npbtracker.com. For stats and standing, start with these two:

• Japanesebaseball.com
• NPB’s Official English site

About once a year I do a post on other English-language Japanese baseball blogs, so look out for that on NPB Tracker.

General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Farm Director: Mike Berger
Scouting Director: Tom Allison

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Perhaps no team’s Top 10 list would benefit more if 2009 draftees were included. The system, hurting for depth, was served some serious CPR this past season. Players who could be in the Top 10, if eligible, include: Matt Davidson, Ryan Wheeler, Marc Krauss, Mike Belfiore, Chris Owings, A.J. Pollock, Keon Broxton, and Bobby Borchering… but you read about those eight prospects in yesterday’s draft review, so you’re basically getting a Top 18 prospect list with this organization (please, save the applause).

1. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Double-A
DOB: November 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Indiana HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-97 mph fastball, plus slider, curveball, change-up

If not for Tommy John surgery, Parker might have been pitching at the MLB level in late ’09 or early 2010. As it stands now, he’ll spend the year trying to recapture his previous form. The right-hander was having a nice season in ’09 pre-injury. He blew through high-A in four dominating starts and then made 16 more appearances in double-A before the elbow popped. He allowed 82 hits in 78.1 innings of work, while also showing OK control with a walk rate of 3.91 BB/9 and posting good strikeout numbers (8.50 K/9). Parker also did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.23 HR/9) due to his ground-ball rate of 55%. If he can regain his previous fastball velo, and keep up the ground-ball rate, Parker could be a No. 1 or 2 starter in the Majors.

2. Brandon Allen, 1B, Majors
DOB: February 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2004 5th round – Texas HS (Chicago AL)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

A nice grab from the White Sox (a club that also gave up on Oakland’s Chris Carter), Allen had a breakout ’09 season and looked like he might have a shot at the MLB job in 2010 until the organization signed free agent Adam LaRoche. The soon-to-be-24-year-old will receive another year of seasoning in triple-A unless LaRoche goes down with an injury. Allen played for four teams (three levels) in ’09 and he made his MLB debut. In total, he slugged 34 homers and possesses massive power that could allow him to hit 30+ in the Majors if he can make enough contact. In 104 MLB at-bats, the slugger struck out at a rate of 38.5%, which was about 18% more often than he struck out in the minors in ’09. Allen has done a nice job of getting on-base during his career, with multiple seasons of +10% walk rates.

3. Cole Gillespie, OF, Triple-A
DOB: June 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 3rd round – Oregon State University (Milwaukee)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Gillespie was acquired last season from Milwaukee and is your typical fringe-regular. He does a lot of things well, but nothing stands out. He doesn’t have enough range to play center field, so he’s stuck on a corner and that shines a lot more light on his bat, which is average. A gap hitter, Gillespie projects to hit around 10-15 homers and steal about the same number of bases. His best bet for a prolonged MLB career is as a fourth outfielder in the Reed Johnson mold. He spent much of the ’09 season where he hit .242/.332/.424 in 236 at-bats and his BABIP was on the low side at .289. In triple-A for Arizona, he hit .304/.418/.514, but was aided by a BABIP of .363. Gillespie does a nice job of getting on base (+10% walk rate) but he strikes out too much for his average power.

4. Collin Cowgill, OF, High-A
DOB: May 22, 1986 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2008 5th round – University of Kentucky
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Cowgill is an interesting player and not that dissimilar from Gillespie. Just 5’9”, he’s shown some good pop for his size but he doesn’t project to be a power hitter in the Majors. More likely than not, he’s going to end up as a fourth outfielder or platoon player. He battled injuries in ’09 and had just 220 at-bats in high-A. His triple-slash line was .277/.373/.445 and he showed good patience at the plate with a walk rate of 11.2%. His strikeout rate was a bit high at 22.3%. He added 11 steals in 15 tries. If given full playing time in the Majors, Cowgill would likely produce some 15-15 seasons. It will be interesting to see what he can do in double-A in 2010.

5. Wade Miley, LHP, High-A
DOB: November 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Southeastern Louisiana University
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, slider, curveball, change-up

A personal favorite of mine from the ’08 draft, Miley has developed slowly. The southpaw, already 23, spent the majority of the year in low-A where he allowed a lot of hits (127) in 113.2 innings of work. On the plus side, he showed good control with a walk rate of 2.30 BB/9. His strikeout rate was modest at 7.21 K/9. Overall, he posted a FIP of 3.38 but at his age, and experience level, he should have dominate the league. He received three starts in high-A and that’s where he should begin the 2010 season, and will look to have a little more luck on his side after posting a high BABIP and a low strand rate.

6. Leyson Septimo, LHP, Double-A
DOB: July 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire:91-95 mph fastball, slider

A former outfielder who wasn’t totally useless at the plate (He hit .270 before his conversion to the mound), Septimo is now trying to harness his plus-fastball as a reliever. In ’09 at high-A, he allowed 29 hits in 38.1 innings of work while and he struck out batters at a rate of 10.33 K/9. He moved up to double-A and posted a strikeout rate of 12.27 K/9. It’s his control that is holding him back, though, and he posted a walk rate of 6.10 at high-A and 8.84 BB/9 in double-A. With just under 100 innings of pitching experience, it’s no surprise that Septimo’s control is off, but he’s turning 25 in July and he hasn’t dominated left-handed batters.

7. Reynaldo Navarro, SS, Low-A
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Puerto Rico HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Just 20, this former third-round pick is still raw but he remains an interesting shortstop prospect. While spending ’09 in low-A, Navarro hit .262/.308/.339 in 451 at-bats. The weaknesses are clear: his walk rate is just 5.5% and his ISO rate was .078. Navarro does have some speed and he swiped 12 bases in 16 tries. He also did a nice job of trimming his ’08 strikeout rate from 26.5% to 18.8% in ’09, giving hope that he could develop into a No. 2 hitter. Defensively, he has good range for the position but his arm might get him moved off the position to second base. Navarro is a long way off from reaching the Majors, but his potential appears to be that of a starting shortstop on a second-tier club.

8. Cesar Valdez, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 86-90 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Valdez is a soft-tosser whose best pitch is a change-up. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high-80s. Even so, he’s had success in the minors, although he hit a speed bump in ’09 at triple-A (5.18 FIP in 19 games). The right-hander began the year in double-A, where he allowed 63 hits in 64.1 innings and posted a 3.00 FIP. He has good control (2.81 BB/9 in triple-A) but his strikeout rates are modest, as he pitches to contact due to his lack of a true out-pitch. Valdez does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and should produce a ground-ball rate around 50%. Because of his fringe-stuff, he could end up as a middle reliever.

9. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Majors
DOB: May 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 2nd round – Villanova University (New York NL)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

Part of the ill-fated Johan Santana trade between the Twins and Mets, Mulvey made his way from the Twins to the Diamondbacks in ’09. He had a respectable, but far from dominant, year in triple-A for the Twins where he posted a 3.96 FIP and allowed 153 hits in 149.0 innings. He showed average control and posted a walk rate of 3.25 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was low at 6.83 K/9. The right-hander struggled in eight MLB appearances split between the Twins and the Diamondbacks. His ceiling is probably that of a No. 4 starter or long/middle reliever. Mulvey has a pretty good slider, but he needs to improve his fastball command so he can set up his out-pitch.

10. Roque Mercedes, RHP, Double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Another ’09 trade acquisition, Mercedes had a nifty season in the bullpen for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks organizations. The right-hander began the year in high-A and posted a 2.19 FIP in 29 games. Batters managed to hit just .181 against him and he posted a strikeout rate of 9.72 K/9. His walk rate was OK at 3.24 BB/9 and he did not allow a home run. Moved up to double-A after the trade, Mercedes’ FIP rose to 3.67 and he allowed 14 hits in 19.0 innings. His walk rate jumped to 4.74 BB/9 but his K-rate rose to 11.84 K/9. The 23-year-old pitcher is probably still a year away from the Majors and his ceiling is probably that of an eighth-inning set-up man.

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