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I just implemented a very slight change to how we calculate the positional adjustment for WAR. Previously we were calculating it based on full games played at a position. Now it is being calculated by innings played, which is a bit more precise.

This may shift a player’s positional adjustment up or down a run at the most, and will mainly impact multi-position players, but that’s about it.

The Giants’ off-season resembles M.C. Escher’s Relativity lithograph. There’s a ton of steps spread out all over the place, each distorted by perspective, and a history dating back to 1953. Freddy Sanchez, Mark DeRosa, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, and Bengie Molina were all added on the positional player side, although three of those players were more of the re-signing variety.

The most notable trait amongst the signings is the flexibility. Huff and Molina withstanding, the rest can play multiple positions. That’s a nice thing to have. Especially if Edgar Renteria bombs again, or injuries start stacking up, or they move Buster Posey to first base while batting him eighth and blocking Nate Schierholtz by playing Huff in right and … uh, never mind that last one. It’s not just flexibility either, the Giants have seemingly upgraded their lineup with these moves.

Admittedly, the offense still looks a bit uninspiring. CHONE projects DeRosa (.335) and Huff (.334) to be slightly above league average and Sanchez slightly below (.318). If those three perform like that and were somehow warped to the 2009 Giants, then they would rank third, fourth, and seventh in wOBA amongst batters with at least 300 plate appearances. Assuming Uribe’s luck on balls in play didn’t make the trip back in time with him, those three would likely fare even better.

That analysis is incomplete because it ignores defense. Huff has played about 2,600 innings at first base throughout his career and has a -4 UZR/150 to show for it. He spent nearly 900 innings there last year (-2.3 UZR) which was more than the amount he played there since 2005. Sanchez is a solid defender. DeRosa, meanwhile, has looked pretty good in the corner outfield over the years.

DeRosa (or Uribe) could always slide in at second base if Sanchez is reinjured. That would leave Fred Lewis in left field. That’s better than how things were last season and that should be encouraging. Plus there’s the Posey card. The talk about him playing an infield position is a bit concerning if it means moving him away from the backstop before he ever gets the opportunity. It’s absolutely damning if such a move is made because Bruce Bochy doesn’t buy into Posey’s game-calling. Write your congressman if this happens.

Perhaps the most frustrating part about this team is the stars. Tim Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval are lovable, enjoyable players. They also play on the west coast with the Barry Bonds-less Giants. That means no added exposure through home run watches or national games. The eastern part of the country should know how good these guys are, but they won’t get to experience it unless they make the post-season. They’ll have a fighting chance at making the playoffs, but it’s easier to see this team finishing in fourth than second.

For now, though, the Giants have options, and that’s progress.

This afternoon, I offered up three guys who I think I’m a bit higher on for 2010 than most people are. The conclusion? I like switch hitters, apparently. However, since there aren’t any switch-pitchers in MLB (yet), I’ll have to settle for other criteria in listing the pitchers that I’m a fan of, relative to my perception of expectations surrounding them.

Manny Parra, Milwaukee

There’s probably not a better example of the divide between the FIP crowd and the ERA crowd than Parra. Those who evaluate a pitcher by the amount of hits and runs he allows will see Parra as an inconsistent flake, a guy with good stuff but no idea how to use it. Those of us who don’t hold a pitcher’s entire BABIP against him will see a lefty who gets both groundballs and strikeouts and has been the victim of bad luck and/or bad defense in a career that still represents a small sample.

I lean more towards the latter camp, obviously. I don’t see a compelling reason to believe that he’s earned a .349 career BABIP. His line drive rates are average-ish, and his GB rate isn’t high enough that we should expect him to give up that many hits on balls in play. He doesn’t throw hittable crap down the middle. He may have been frustrating to watch over the last several years, but there’s a lot more ability here than the results would suggest.

Derek Holland, Texas

In an organization with a lot of good young arms, in a division with a lot of good young arms, Holland gets overlooked, but he may be the single most important player in the AL West in 2010. If he’s as good as I think he is, Texas has a legitimate shot at winning 90 games. This kid can really pitch. His 2009 numbers are driven by a high HR/FB rate, which caused him to allow too many baserunners to score, but I don’t see either of those issues carrying over this year.

He has four pitches, throw strikes, misses bats, and has better command than he showed a year ago. And he’s left-handed. There should be way more excitement about a kid with these tools, but that ugly 6.12 ERA still scares people off. Forget the ERA – Holland can pitch, and could easily emerge as the ace of the Rangers rotation.

Nick Blackburn, Minnesota

When people talk about the Twins rotation, they’ll usually focus on one of the other four guys. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Carl Pavano, and Francisco Liriano all have higher profiles, and Blackburn just kind of hides in the background. As a strike-throwing sinkerball without an extreme GB%, he doesn’t really fit into any category of pitcher that gets a lot of attention, but he does everything well enough to make the total package work. He mixes in several fastballs to keep hitters off balance, and his change allows him to get left-handers out with regularity.

Guys who lack an out-pitch are often projected to fall apart by people who evaluate pitchers almost exclusively by strikeout rate, but Blackburn fits the mold of pitchers who just make it work without racking up a lot of Ks. He might be the obscure pitcher in the Twins rotation, but he’s also the most reliable.

Everyone knows about Johnny Damon’s longtime love for the Detroit Red Wings and octopus by now, but have you heard that he’s also a big Matt Ryan fan? He also loved WCW. WolfPac 4 ever!

Jokes aside, in addition to the Tigers, the Atlanta Braves have also allegedly shown interest in signing Damon (at least according to the rumor mill). For reasons I mentioned in this week’s podcast, I don’t think Damon is a great fit for Detroit — even if you think he adds a win or two to the Tigers, that isn’t likely to put the Tigers anywhere near the playoffs. The Braves, on the other hand, are in a position to spend a bit for a marginal win. They look like a team that could give Philadelphia a run for its money in the NL East, and failing that, would be a favorite for the wildcard.

What does Damon offer? Offensively, CHONE projects .352 wOBA, or about 13 runs above average per 700 PA. That projection doesn’t adjust for league, so let’s give him a couple extra runs for moving into the NL for +15. Damon’s defense has come under a lot of fire recently, but it’s probably not quite as bad as it seems. After taking positional adjustments, speed scores, and age into account, I have Damon at about minus 10/162 position-neutral outfielder (so about -13 CF, -3 LF). Despite his age, Damon has been pretty durable lately, so 85% playing time is still fair. +15 offense -10 fielding + 22.5 replacement level times 85% = a 2.3 WAR player. That’s a decent player even at $7M for one year.

How does this compare to Atlanta’s current major league outfielders? Nate McLouth is slated to start in center. CHONE projects .355 wOBA, or +15/700. I have him as a -5 position-neutral outfielder. +15 offense -5 fielding + 22.5 replacement times 85% = 2.8 WAR.

Bobby Cox is apparently discussing having Matt Diaz and recently-acquired Melky Cabrera share playing time. CHONE projects Diaz at .349 wOBA, about +12/700, and although he’s been platooned heavily due to massive splits, as a righty I estimate his split to be about even. I have Diaz as a -5 defender, but he also never plays full-time due to injuries and platooning — 75% seems about right. +12 -5 +22.5 times 75% = 2.2 WAR, although that might be high due to injury concerns and platoon uncertainty.

What about Cabrera? I’m with Dave on Melky — people focus too much on his alleged “tweener” status and miss his age relative to performance. CHONE agrees about offense, and projects Cabrera for a .358 wOBA, +17/700. His “tweener” status on defense might mean you don’t want him in center too much, but it also means he’s be a plus defender on the corners, I have him at -3/162 position neutral. +17 -3 + 22.5 times 85% playing time = 3.1 WAR. Far from being a 4th OF part-timer, Melky shouldn’t be taking a backseat to anyone in Atlanta.

McLouth and Cabrera are probably better players than Damon at this point, but Damon is better than Diaz, especially if you think Diaz’s platoon issues and injuries make him worse than the projection above. In any case, as Dave has argued in the podcasts, having four good outfielders is a good idea, especially given Diaz and McClouth’s recent playing time woes and the Braves’ hopes for contention. For the right money, Damon could make a lot of sense for the Braves if they distribute playing time properly. But…

…you’re probably screaming “What about Jason Heyward, the best prospect in baseball that the Braves are going to give the shot in right field?” And you’d be exactly right. I’m not going to bother with projections for Heyward. In short, if Atlanta thinks he’s ready and has him in the majors, they have play him every day, otherwise it’s a waste. At that point, you’ve got McLouth, Cabrera, and Diaz fighting over two spots that should go to Cabrera and McLouth, with Diaz as the 4th OF. If they bring Damon in, there would be a lot less playing time to go around, and the marginal value to the Braves is much lower.

So if Johnny really wants $7 million per from the Braves, it looks like he’d better bust out some new attire.

In the comments to Dave Cameron’s Joe Mauer post last week a commenter, Temo, suggested Joey Votto as a player with similar opposite-field power. I thought it would be interesting to check him out, partially as a comparison to Mauer, but also because I think Votto does not get enough attention.

Last year Votto had the fourth-highest wOBA baseball. Obviously he benefits from his home park and we do not have the wRC+ leader boards yet, but I went and checked the fifteen guys after him and saw that the only one who gets pumped ahead is Adrain Gonzalez. So on a rate basis Votto was the fifth-best hitter even taking to account his home park.

So how did he do it? It starts with a good number of walks and solid power. The power, as Temo noted, is great to left — opposite field for the left-handed Votto. To left he has an ISO of .450, but has fairly good power to center, .226, and right, .298. So he is no slouch to any field.

Just as interesting as his opposite-field power though is his amazing .373 BABIP, good for sixth best in the league. Looking at the BABAIP split out by batted-ball type the amazing thing is his BABIP on fly balls, .291. The average BABIP on fly balls in the NL in 2009 was .142. So Votto gets hits on his non-HR fiy balls at a rate double that of the average non-HR fly and higher than a good number of hitters do on all their balls in play.

How can nearly three of ten of Votto’s non-HR fly balls drop for hits? Here I look at Votto’s non-HR flies by field location. As in my Cust post, the numbers are the fractions of non-HR fly balls to each location and the color the BABIP: from red being over one half to gray being zero.

The first thing is that Votto hits very few infield flies compared to the average LHB, actually the third fewest in the league. This cuts down on automatic outs. Additionally he hits way more flies to deep and mid-distance left field, which fall in for hits at a very good rate. This shows how readily and successfully he goes the opposite way, which I think is a big reason for his high BABIP on fly balls.

He probably will not have a BABIP of over .370 next year, but it will most likely be quite high. This great BABIP coupled with his great — and opposite-field fueled — power and his walks result in one of the game’s best young hitters.

Some players appear content to wait out the market. Johnny Damon remains unemployed as pitchers and catchers get ready to report, but he’s vacationing in Hawaii, not a care in the world. Other players appear a bit more impatient. Count Felipe Lopez among the latter crowd. He fired Scott Boras over the weekend, reportedly over frustration that he, like 10.6 percent of Americans, lacks a job. His new representatives at Beverly Hills Sports Council must now find a team needing an upgrade at second or third base.

Over the past year and a half Lopez has placed himself among the top MLB second basemen. In the 849 plate appearances he has accumulated since the Nationals released him in 2008, he has posted a .372 wOBA. Despite the poor first half of 2008 that led to his release, Lopez ranks ninth among second basemen in WAR over the past two years, .02 ahead of both Robinson Cano and Orlando Hudson and only .01 behind Mark DeRosa. His defense plays into that ranking, with a 2.5 UZR over the past two years, seventh among MLB second basemen.

Can Lopez sustain that production? His 4.6 WAR season in 2009 stands out, but CHONE projects him to produce only 2.2 wins above replacement in 2010. A large factor in this projection, it appears, is a regression of his .360 BABIP back to his career norm of .323. With a career high line drive rate of 22.3 percent, along with a career low fly ball rate of 25.9 percent, the regression makes sense. Chances are a number of those line drives will once again become fly balls. A 2.2 WAR would have moved Lopez from the fifth most valuable second baseman in 2009 to the 15th most valuable.

Even so, a number of clubs could still benefit from a stronger second baseman, even as we creep closer to spring training. The problem isn’t so much with the upgrade, however, as it is with money. Many teams have reached their spending limits, despite fielding less than adequate players at a number of positions, including second base. The Astros and Padres fall into this group, as they fielded, and will again field in 2010, two of the worst second basemen in the league. Only a few teams remain that need another infielder and have the money to sign one.

The Cardinals, for whom Lopez thrived in 2008, were reportedly interested in Lopez in December, before Matt Holliday signed, and still have some money to spend. Lopez might have to accept a reduced role there, however, as David Freese figures to get a long look at third base this spring. Over the past two seasons at AAA he has hit .304/.363/.542 in 664 at-bats. He’ll turn 27 just after the season starts, so the Cards might want Lopez as an insurance policy just in case Freese can’t come close to replicating his PCL numbers.

The Cubs could be another suitor. They ranked 27th in wOBA from their second basemen in 2009 and didn’t make many moves to upgrade for 2010. But, with their payroll over $135 million for 2010, they might be content with a platoon of
Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker. CHONE projects them to combine for 717 plate appearances and 2.5 WAR, so unless they see something they don’t like in spring training it remains unlikely that they’ll spend the extra money on Lopez.

Like many of his fellow free agents, Lopez lost the waiting game. Had he signed in December, or even early January, he might have commanded a contract similar to Hudson’s one-year, $5 million deal. Now it appears that he’ll have to settle for much less, not only in money but perhaps also in playing time. Unless he forces his way into an everyday lineup with his bat, that’s going to cost him even more money next off-season. What kind of offers, I wonder, did Scott Boras turn down?

Pitchers and catchers report this week. Yes, it’s the most anti-climactic day in the history of the world, but the symbolism is real: when these guys start unpacking their bags and taking physicals, baseball is back. And so, our attention begins to shift. We now talk about 2010 as the current season, no longer referring to it as “next year” or “the upcoming year.” It’s now “this year.” And that’s exciting, even if the actual details behind pitchers and catchers reporting is not.

So, to kick off the start of the looking ahead season, I’m going to do two posts today on guys that I feel like I am more optimistic about than the general consensus. For various reasons, I like these guys more than the projection systems or the wisdom of the crowd. These are the three hitters that I think will surprise people with how well they play in 2010.

Carlos Guillen, Detroit

Whenever an older player has a bad season, it is always attributed to age-related decline, no matter how the drop-off comes or how severe it is. If they regress a bit from prior performance, well, that’s normal, they’re getting older. If they decline a lot, they fell off The Cliff. There’s hardly ever any allowance for the fact that it could have just been a bad year, especially if it looks like a player is trending downwards.

This basically sums up the thought process on Guillen, I think. His wOBAs have gone .390-.361-.359-.328 the last four years, and he’s now 34 years old, so the assumption is that Father Time is just catching up to him. Except that, when you look at his core statistics, that isn’t really true. His .177 ISO last year is above his career average. His BB/K was normal, though his strikeouts went up a bit. His HR/FB% and LD% were both right around his career norms. The 30 point drop in wOBA is all BABIP, which went from .321 to .267. Even if he’s slowing down, I see no reason to believe that reflects 100% skill reduction. Guillen’s still a good hitter with both power and patience, and he shouldn’t be written off prematurely.

Cliff Pennington, Oakland

As one of those decent-at-everything-great-at-nothing types, Pennington avoided hype while climbing the minor league ladder despite being a former first round selection. His lack of power is usually one of the first things people will mention, but he’s not David Eckstein or Luis Castillo – he hits the ball hard enough where you can’t just throw him a fastball down the middle. He controls the strike zone well, makes good contact, and is a pretty good baserunner, plus he offers the benefit of being a switch hitter.

If he can show enough glove to stick at shortstop, he’s one of the better young players in the game at the position. Yet, he’s almost never talked about outside of Oakland, at least as far as I can tell. Most teams would love to have a guy at SS with Pennington’s offensive abilities, and if the A’s end up as contenders in the west, don’t be surprised if their shortstop is one of the reasons why.

Melky Cabrera, Atlanta

He’s been around long enough that its easy to forget that he’s just 25 years old. He gets labeled as a tweener, because he’s not a great defensive CF or a great offensive LF, but guys like this are often better than people realize, and there’s still upside left with Cabrera. He’s a really good contact hitter and strong enough to add to his current gap power levels. He doesn’t even have to add all that much power to turn himself into a legitimate 20-20 threat.

He may not look like a classic corner outfielder, but Cabrera can play, and I think Braves fans will be pleasantly surprised with what he offers. His defense is going to be a solid plus in a corner, and he’s not far from being a quintessential #2 hitter. Given his physical skills and age, don’t be surprised if he locks down an outfield spot in Atlanta for the next several years.

One number on ESPN’s Free Agent Tracker stands out above the rest. The Florida Marlins are the only team without any committed money to free agents on major league contracts this winter. They have added Seth McClung and Jose Veras on minor league contracts, but that’s the extent of their activity this offseason.

After an 87-75 year from a very young team, there was certainly room for optimism in the Marlins camp. Even with an 81-81 Pythagorean record and an 83-79 third order record, the Marlins appeared to be in position, with a few upgrades, to make a run at the postseason. Now, in February, the Marlins haven’t added a single player of note, and key bullpen piece Kiko Calero is a free agent and first baseman Nick Johnson has moved on to the Yankees.

Where does that leave the Marlins? That depends on which projection system you ask. PECOTA thinks the Marlins have a decent team, and at 82-80, that would leave them with a realistic, albeit small, chance at the postseason. CHONE and CAIRO, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic. CHONE projects Florida for either 76 or 78 wins depending on which method you prefer, and CAIRO projects them for 79 wins and a measley 2.5 percent chance at reaching the playoffs.

It is not entirely surprising that the Marlins haven’t made any big moves. With the increases in player salary due to arbitration, in particular Josh Johnson and Dan Uggla, the Marlins’ salary stands at 34.75 million before minimum salary players, according to Cot’s Contracts. The team hasn’t eclipsed a 40 million dollar salary since 2005.

The Marlins are anywhere from 3 to 6 wins away from seriously competing for a playoff spot this summer. In the face of the MLB and players union demanding the team spend more money towards a possible playoff run, Jeffrey Loria has somehow managed to completely ignore the free agent market. Perhaps the Marlins simply couldn’t find the correct player to meet both their financial and competitive needs this winter. Regardless of why, the Marlins’ decision-making process will likely result in one fewer team in the NL East race come this summer.

FanGraphs Audio is back and very probably badder than ever. Here’s your guide to this week’s episode.

Episode Two
In which the panel considers the remaining pool of free agents — i.e. the baseballing equivalent of an above-ground pool.

Headlines
Scott Boras Seduces Tigers
Dave Cameron Tells Matt Klaassen What’s What
Branyan’s Got Back (Problems)
… and other fascinating spectacles!

Featuring
Dave Cameron
Matt Klaassen

Finally, thanks to everyone who made suggestions last week. We’ll be trying to make improvements each episode. Translation: it’s not terrible on purpose.

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