If there’s one thing the Marlins have been known for throughout their history, it has been for being a player development factory. They have constantly replenished their big league roster with new talent from the farm and served as a pipeline for getting talented players into the major leagues. Unfortunately, if there’s another thing the Marlins have been known for, it’s been trading those players as soon as they reach arbitration eligibility, as the team has operated on a shoestring budget that hasn’t let them keep players beyond their cost controlled years.

After years of operating this way, the players union finally complained to Major League Baseball, and the league actually forced the Marlins to spend the revenue sharing money they’ve been pocketing for years. The result? Dan Uggla is still a Marlin, and Josh Johnson has a new, long-term contract that not only bought out two arbitration years but two years of free agency, as well. For once, the Marlins did not hold a fire sale during the winter. Okay, they traded Jeremy Hermida and Matt Lindstrom, but those two are hardly irreplaceable. The core of the team remained mostly in tact, which is new for Florida, at least.

With Hanley Ramirez and now Josh Johnson locked up for a while, along with some promising rookies and one of the most impressive prospects in the game, the Marlins have the beginnings of a good team. The question, as always, is payroll. Even with the new money spent this winter, the team simply doesn’t have the type of financial flexibility needed to fill out a roster well enough to really contend. They’ve spent just over $40 million on the current team, which isn’t enough unless you’re building around a legendary core of homegrown talent. The Marlins aren’t.

So, despite their strengths in player development, and the talent on the roster that is good enough to keep them from being terrible, the Marlins aren’t really contenders. They’re a player development machine that can put together teams that play respectable baseball without costing much money, but unless the agreement with the player’s union leads to a significant expansion of the payroll, they’re going to remain a quality also ran.

It’s too bad, too, because there are some good baseball people doing good things in Florida. But the lack of investment in the team significantly limits their upside. It’s a good step that they didn’t tear the team apart this winter, but until they actively start adding pieces to help the team take the next step, it’s tough to see their organizational blueprint as one that any teams should want to follow.

There’s something here. It’s unlikely much will come of it for reasons I’m sure Dave Cameron will cover later today… And that has to be incredibly frustrating for my boy Michael Jong and that one Marlins fan (or was it a homeless person who visited a Salvation Army shop with slim pickings?) I saw in Arizona… that has to be about it, right? It’s not like ownership has even earned that.

It’s too bad. The Marlins have a good core put together by a smart front office working with one hand tied behind their back. Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Hanley Ramirez is the best shortstop in baseball, and he’s only 26. ‘Nuff said. Dan Uggla’s defense, unlike Ramirez’s, appears to still be pretty bad at second, but his bat is still pretty good, and he’s an above average player. The corner infield is less inspiring, particularly with Jorge Cantu (and okay hitter but a dreadful fielder) still at third base, while something like a younger version of Cantu, Gaby Sanchez, patrols the area around first. Sanchez may just be holding down the fort until the team feels Logan Morrison is ready (and that may be soon). All three are competent, none are inspiring (although Morrison is just 22 and thus has a fair bit of upside). The outfield is good, too. The redoubtable Cody Ross was never great in center field, his defense is a plus in the corners and overall he’s probably about an average player or a bit better. Left fielder Chris Coghlan, another good young bat from the farm, would probably be playing second base this season if the club had been able to trade Dan Uggla (or moved him to third) as they wished. Anyway, Coghlan hits and fields well enough to be above average overall in left field. The long-awaited Cameron Maybin will be getting his first full-time shot in center field, and while some analysts aren’t as high on his immediate stardom as others, it seems to me he’ll get there soon enough, and with that bat and glove, it’s hard to see him being any worse than above average in 2010. In John Baker and Ronny Paulino, the Marlins have two decent catchers.

It’s the pitching that will get them. 26-year old Josh Johnson is a legitimate ace, or close to it, and the Marlins were forced by the mean-old MLBPA to extend him for four years. Isn’t there any mercy in the world for classy art dealers? Ricky Nolasco is also above average, and may still be more than that. After that, it gets pretty ugly, unless you think Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller are going to shock everyone and fulfill the promise they seemed to have long ago. As for the bullpen, well, you get what you pay for.

The frustrating thing about the Marlins is that with good, young players like Ramirez, Maybin, Coghlan, Johnson, and others all under contract or club control, they should be able to contend; even on their small budget, there has to be enough money left over to add a couple of non-terrible relievers, and/or another starting pitcher. Yes, the Phillies are very, very good, but with a bit of effort the Braves would be within striking distance. The Marlins could have a reasonable chance a wildcard spot (and maybe more), especially with the Nationals floundering and the Mets being the Mets. As it is, the Marlins will probably be around .500 this year, maybe a bit better, maybe a bit worse.

Jeffrey Loria should thank his lucky stars every day that Donald Sterling is around.

The Florida Marlins club seems to be in a perpetual rebuilding mode. There will be few veterans to be found on the field for the club in 2010: John Baker (29), Dan Uggla (30), Jorge Cantu (28), and Cody Ross (29) are the old men of the group. Other starters – all under the age of 27 – include Gaby Sanchez (26), Hanley Ramirez (26), Chris Coghlan (24), and Cameron Maybin (22). In other words, only one projected starter for the Marlins club is 30 years of age or older. The only player born in the ’70s is part-timer Wes Helms at 33.

The only pitcher on the 40-man roster born in the ’70s is Brian Sanches and he has never spent a full season in the Majors. The starting rotation could include the likes of Josh Johnson (26), Ricky Nolasco (27), Chris Volstad (23), Andrew Miller (24), Anibal Sanchez (26), Sean West (23), and Rick VandenHurk (25). The man-child in charge of closing out games – Leo Nunez – is just 27 years of age. The youth movement is alive and well in Florida.

It’s a good thing that the pitching staff is so young, because the club’s mound depth in the minor leagues is not the greatest. The top pitcher is Ryan Tucker, but he’s likely a long-term reliever and there are health questions surrounding him. The next best arms belong to ’09 first round pick Chad James and little-known Jhan Marinez. Both are raw and neither is a sure thing at this point.

The future offense looks much brighter, thanks to the presence of two highly-regarded prospects in outfielder Mike Stanton and first baseman Logan Morrison. Stanton is a good, young player with 30-homer potential but he could also end up with Mark-Reynolds-like strikeout totals. Morrison projects to have average home run power at best for a first baseman but he should provide gap power and a good batting average (perhaps in the mold of Lyle Overbay). Third baseman Matt Dominguez, a former No. 1 pick and an excellent defensive player, still has promise but questions remain about how well he’ll hit in the Majors. My favorite sleeper on the team is Bryan Petersen and he should develop into a solid No. 4 outfielder in the worst case scenario.

Because the club rarely lets its top players make it to free agency (they get too expensive in years 3-6) the club will never be able to load up on extra picks in the amateur draft like some rebuilding clubs. That means that the club has to be very successful in trading its players. Some of the players acquired via the draft include Nolasco, Maybin, Ramirez, and Nunez. Cantu was rescued off of the scrap heap. The club did a nice job of stealing Uggla from the Arizona organization in the Rule 5 draft. Those are the types of moves that the Marlins organization is going to have to continue to do well in order to compete.

Johnson is probably the club’s best draft pick, as a former fourth round selection out of an Oklahoma high school. The club also did a nice job with Coghlan, although his future will be much brighter back at his natural position of second base. His offensive skill set is not well-suited to left field. Scouting director Stan Meek returns in 2010 for his eighth season overseeing the amateur draft and he has produced a rather inconsistent track record. The club has had more success in later rounds of the draft than it has with first round picks. Some of the first round picks during Meek’s time as director include Taylor Tankersley, Brett Sinkbeil, Kyle Skipworth, Jeff Allison, and Jeremy Hermida.

General manager Mike Hill enters his third season after taking over from Larry Beinfest in late 2007. Hill has yet to really stamp his seal on the club with few major moves during his tenure. Uggla is likely not long for Florida due to his expensive contract but the general manager may have waited too long to trade the defensively-challenged second baseman. His value is diminishing every day as clubs put more emphasis on defensive value and Uggla is also getting closer and closer to free agency. Brian Chattin will oversee the minor leagues this season as director of player development.

The organization certainly has some good, young talent but it remains to be seen if the club will allow those players to stick around long enough to help this organization compete long term.

John Smoltz announced yesterday that he will be taking a studio job with TBS for the time being. That essentially rules out any return to the big leagues by opening day for Smoltz. The future hall-of-famer did say he isn’t officially retired, leaving a return possible, but for the foreseeable future, John Smoltz will not be pitching in the big leagues.

It looked like Smoltz was done last year after struggling with the Boston Red Sox. Smoltz gave up 37 runs in 40 innings in that stint, for an ERA of 8.33. His peripherals, however, suggested that he could still be a productive pitcher, as he posted a 3.67 K/BB and a 4.95 FIP despite an uncharacteristically high 14.8% HR/FB rate.

A move to St. Louis suggested that there was still some gas in the tank. He put up a stellar 2.73 FIP, 2.76 tRA, and 3.46 xFIP in 38 innings with St. Louis. Overall, we have Smoltz as a 1.5 win player in a measly 78 innings in 2009. Even if Smoltz doesn’t have the durability to be a starter any more, there seems to be sufficient evidence that he could be a very productive reliever.

The projection systems all like Smoltz for 2010. These systems all consider age, and yet of the five systems we show on the site (CHONE, ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, Fans), the worst projection is CHONE’s at a 4.00 FIP. All the others think he’s at least a 3.82 FIP pitcher, making him a well above average pitcher. There’s no way that some team can’t find a spot for him in their rotation (St. Louis, Milwaukee, Seattle, as examples) or bullpen (Minnesota, for one).

It’s always disappointing when talent is forced out of the big leagues, for whatever reason. Still, I, for one, don’t think we’ll have to wait too long for Smoltz to find his way back.

Adam Dunn belongs in the American League. In fact, he should have played there his entire career. Yet every single one of his 5,417 plate appearances and 10,589.2 defensive innings have come in the National League. After spending the first seven and a half years of his major league career with the Reds, he went to the Diamondbacks in August 2008. Finally free to hit free agency after the season and catch on with a team that would keep him out of the field, he instead signed with the Nationals for two years and $20 million in January 2009. It had everyone from saberists to casual fans asking why.

When Adam Dunn hits baseballs, they travel a long way. Over the past three seasons he has the sixth highest ISO in the majors. His home runs during that time, 118, have averaged 409 feet. His slugging percentage, .532, is more than twice his batting average, .256, so each of his hits was worth more than a double. Most teams, I’m sure, would love to have that kind of power in their lineup. In the NL, though, it comes at the expense of his fielding.

The defensive aspect of Dunn’s game makes the Nationals’ stated desire to extend Dunn’s contract a mystery. His park adjusted wRAA last season, 35.5, ranked highest on the team, besting Ryan Zimmerman by 8.1 runs. The next closest player after that, Nick Johnson at 11.9 (just with the Nats), got traded mid-season. The only other National with a positive wRAA was Nyjer Morgan with 8.8. In other words, the team certainly appreciates his bat. Unfortunately, he cannot add his value to the lineup without playing the field.

Countless pixels have been used to describe Dunn’s defense. No adjective can describe it adequately. In fact, if you want to employ hyperbole in describing an inadequate defender, you can say he plays dunndefense (pronounced DUNN-duh-fense). Over the past three seasons only Brad Hawpe sports a worse outfield UZR, -82.1 to Dunn’s -66.9. Those two, along with Jermaine Dye, represent another world of horrible outfield defense. There’s nearly a 20-run difference between Dye and the fourth-worst outfielder.

In an attempt to limit Dunn’s exposure on defense they’ve moved him to first base. He’ll cause the least damage there, but he still handles the position poorly. He has played only 668 innings at first base over the past three years, yet still has the fourth worst UZR at the position, -16.2, and the worst UZR/150. It seems that no matter the position Dunn costs his team runs. Why, then, would a National League team want to sign him?

Two possible answers come to mind. The first doubles back to Dunn’s offensive prowess. A team like the Nats, with only three players who sported a positive wRAA last season, can’t afford to lose a hitter like Dunn, defense be damned. But if he’s costing the team runs on defense, can’t that offset his offensive numbers to an extent? While he does have the fourth most wRAA among outfielders over the past three years, his WAR ranks 37th. It appears, then, that yes, defense can offset offense, making the argument for keeping Dunn’s bat in the lineup a bit weaker.

The other answer involves a trade. GM Mike Rizzo has been charged with building a contender, and while Dunn might not fit into a potential NL East winning team perhaps he can help acquire someone who does. This contender does not figure to come this year, meaning Dunn could walk afterward. But if the Nats sign him to a two-year extension, perhaps they can trade him during or after the 2011 season to an AL team in exchange for a missing piece to their contention puzzle. It seems a longshot, and it probably doesn’t befit a team to sign someone with the intent of trading him for something useful. Given the situation, however, I wouldn’t rule it out.

We know what Adam Dunn adds to a team, but we also know what he takes away. Why, then, would a National League team, exposed to both, sign him? This isn’t the first time someone has asked this question, but with Rizzo actively discussing with the media his eagerness to extend Dunn it might be the most emphatic. The team either thinks his defensive detriment is overstated, or thinks it can turn him around in a year or two for more suitable pieces. I’m not sure either reason is enough justification to extend Dunn’s contract beyond the 2010 season.

No introduction necessary. I’m simply going to attempt to explain all about options in fewer than 300 words. Here we go.

Options are essentially an expansion of the Rule 5 draft. Both are means to prevent teams from collecting and hoarding talent beyond the amount they can field. When an option is used, that simply means the player is on the 40-man roster and was sent to the minors. The majority of players have three option seasons; seasons being the key word there. Take Jeremy Hellickson for example. The Rays reassigned him to minor league camp a few days ago and he will begin the season in Triple-A. At which point an option will be used.

There are some exceptions to this rule.

As discussed with Andrew Miller, a player with fewer than five professional seasons will have a fourth option added.

If a player is optioned to the minors, but spends fewer than 20 days in the minors throughout the entire season, then an option is not used.

If a player misses the season due to injury.

The most confused aspect of the entire ordeal is the difference between years and seasons and how it portrays into options. Take Hellickson again. Since Hellickson was only added to the 40-man last winter, he will have two more options remaining. That is true no matter how many times the Rays promote and demote him throughout the 2010 season.

Oh, and one other thing, teams cannot run what amounts to a 26-man roster by optioning a pair of players up and down throughout any given week. A player sent down has to stay down for 10 days barring an injury to someone on the 25-man roster.

Hopefully that clears things up, if not check out Keith Law’s more detailed post here.

While the very reasonable Matthew Carruth announced two days ago that he would no longer breach the subject of Team FanGraphs’ spring training trip in these electronic pages*, I, having never really been all that fond of “restraint,” intend to go back to that well until it’s as dry and dusty as the Greater Phoenix Area.

*It’s like they say: “What happens at the Crowne Plaza Hotel Phoenix-Airpot, stays at the Crowne Plaza Hotel Phoenix-Airport.”

What follows is the sort of white-hot baseballing analysis you can only get from FanGraphs. For each of the five games I attended (in just four days!), I provide one player of note. If nothing else, consider it an opportunity to write “small sample size” in all caps in the the comment section. You’re welcome, in advance.

Date: Friday, March 12
Game: Kansas City at Seattle
Name: Matt Tuiasosopo
Comments: The Peoria Sports Complex, where the Seattle Mariners play, has a giant blue batting eye in center field that’s probably about, I don’t know, 40 feet tall and 90 or so feet wide (and which you can see with your own two right here). Here’s the weird thing about that batting eye: it’s in play. Of course, that’s not something I’d’ve thought about for more than, like, three seconds had Tuiasosopo not slamicated a John Parrish offering half way up said batting eye for what turned about to be a 435-foot double. Oh, and Tui hit a home run to left off Juan Cruz in his next PA.

Date: Saturday, March 13
Game: Texas at Cleveland
Name: Lonnie Chisenbutt
Comments: The lay baseball fan may know him as Lonnie Chisenhall, but it was universally acknowledged by those of us in attendance (okay, maybe just Jack Moore and I) that saying something to the effect of “Guess what? Chisenbutt” is pretty hilarious. In case you’re not acquainted, Chisenbutt is — according to our own Marc Hulet — is Cleveland’s number two prospect and number 55 overall in Hulet’s totally uncontroversial Top 100 Prospect list. In this game, Chisenhall played a pretty legit-looking third base while doubling to the right field gap and drawing two walks. Justin Masterson struck out six in 3.2 innings, and would’ve totally been my Player of the Game if his name could be made into a sophomoric joke.

Date: Saturday, March 13
Game: Auburn at Arizona State
Name: Zack MacPhee
Comments: Through the ten (albeit, non conference) games entering this one, MacPhee had compiled 7 triples and a 7-for-7 record on stolen bases while managing to post an OPS of, like, one million. I was already totally on the bandwagon when, after doubling from the right side earlier in the game, MacPhee jacked a donger from the left side. Worried that the subsequent joy coma might be unwarranted, I asked someone whose actual job it is to know these things, Baseball America’s Aaron Fitt. Mr. Fitt responded kindly, promptly with the following:

I don’t think your liking of MacPhee is irrational at all — he’s an exciting player. He’s undersized, sure, but I actually think he has some projection because he’s a real quick-twitch athlete. I remember when Arizona State brought him in, their recruiting coordinator at the time, Josh Holiday, called him “a little ball of fire” and said “this guy is a stronger, faster, quicker athlete than Pedroia.” Like Pedroia, he really drives the baseball — he’s not just a contact-oriented slap hitter. Holiday really knows his stuff, and he told me quite clearly that MacPhee “will do big things.” And since he arrived in Tempe, he has learned how to switch-hit, and apparently he’s really taken to it. That just gives him more value. Obviously he’s unorthodox, but I think he’s got a real chance to move up draft boards and be a good pro.

Date: Sunday, March 14
Game: Kansas City at Oakland
Name: Catcher Jake Fox
Comments: This was actually supposed to be a Chicago Cubs versus Some Other Team game, but turns out a lot of people really want to see the Cubs. Anyway, the Athletics’ spring training complex wasn’t so far away, so we decided to head thataways. Really, it was just an opportunity for Matt Klaassen to find new and interesting ways to be disappointed by his hometown team. Anyway, the surprising thing was when the PA guy referred to Fox as a “catcher” during the latter’s first plate appearance. I thought maybe I was suffering from too much sun, but, no, in Fox’s second plate appearance, the PA guys once again called him “Catcher Jake Fox.” Later on, in the eighth, Fox jacked a pretty serious donger to left off Matt Herges.

Date: Monday, March 15
Game: Cleveland at Milwaukee
Name: Michael Fiers
Comments: Who the frig is Michael Fiers? He’s a guy who struck out 63 batters across 42.2 IP in the Brewers system last year. Of course, he was a college guy pitching in the low minors, so that’s not saying much. But he’s also a guy who struck out the only three batters he faced in today’s game and looked nasty while doing it. I’d’ve asked around about Fiers, except I was so eager to learn more about MacPhee that I totally forgot. [End white-hot analysis.]

I am tempted to just take what I wrote about the White Sox, copy it, change a few names, and wonder if people will notice. The Giants really are the National League version of the south side Chicago club; really good rotation, some bullpen talent, and a group of position players that mostly makes you cringe.

The good: Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Matt Cain is a pretty sweet quartet to build around. Very few teams have four good young players that can stack up next to that group.

The bad: So much of the payroll is tied up in mediocre veterans that the team lacks the volume of good players it needs to surround that group in order to build a quality team. 47 percent of their 2010 payroll is tied up in Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Edgar Renteria. That hurts. With Lincecum getting good so quickly, he’s no longer cheap, so there just isn’t much money to go around, and that leads to things like Aubrey Huff, Starting First Baseman.

The end result is a weird roster, a team that has enough pieces to potentially contend but some glaringly obvious holes and a lot of question marks. Can the rotation make up for everything else? Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it, and if Lincecum lands on the DL for any length of time, this could get very ugly, very quickly.

Looking ahead, the farm system is weak after Posey and Bumgarner, whose missing velocity is a real concern. They don’t have a GM that has shown he can make shrewd, low cost acquisitions, and they lack payroll flexibility. The young guys on the major league team are good enough to keep this team from being dreadful (as long as they all stay healthy), but there aren’t enough of them, and it’s not clear where the help is going to come from.

Add it all up, and you have an organization with some good pieces in place, but too many problems to be considered one of the better clubs in baseball.

The San Francisco Giants organization has a reputation for being a geriatric ward for professional athletes – and deservedly so. General manager Brian Sabean’s love of veteran players (at the expense of promising youngsters) has come under fire in recent seasons and there appears to be a slow change a foot.

Corner infielder Pablo Sandoval has shocked just about everyone with his immediate success in the Majors. Just 23, he has a .333 batting average and .924 OPS in 194 big league games. The only thing that could seemingly derail this roly-poly star is his conditioning. The club also appears committed to right-fielder Nate Schierholtz, who is just 26.

Beyond that, though, the club is trotting out a number of veterans on the wrong side of their career peaks – Mark DeRosa, Edgar Renteria, Aaron Rowand, Aubrey Huff, and Bengie Molina. The re-signing this past off-season of Molina is the most recent head-scratcher. Former top draft pick Buster Posey appears ready to be an everyday contributor behind the dish, but he will now either spend the majority of the year in the minors or he’ll play numerous positions in the Majors (thanks to his athleticism). The choice to trade for second baseman Freddy Sanchez last season was also a little interesting considering that the club gave up a promising arm in Tim Alderson for the injury-prone veteran.

Despite shedding Alderson, though, the club still has a lot of good, young arms in the Major League rotation. Mr. Cy Young Tim Lincecum is perhaps the best young pitcher in all of baseball at the age of 25. Matt Cain has been in the rotation for four full seasons but he’s still just 25 and is a workhorse. Jonathan Sanchez, 27, also has promise, but he’s quite inconsistent. Rookie Madison Bumgarner is a favorite for the fifth spot in the rotation, but there is concern over his long-term loss of his fastball velocity. The club also has some promising arms in the bullpen with the likes of Sergio Romo, Henry Sosa, Waldis Joaquin, and Dan Runzler. The latter could develop into the club’s closer of the future.

The Giants organization also has some more offensive help in the upper minors, including shortstop Brandon Crawford, and outfielders Roger Kieschnick and Thomas Neal. The club’s top young pitcher, ’09 No. 1 draft pick Zach Wheeler, is probably about four years away from the Majors. Organizational depth is certainly not a strength for this club.

The ’09 draft was OK, but nothing to get too excited about after Wheeler. The ’08 draft nabbed the likes of Posey, Kieschnick, and Crawford so it was quite impressive. Eighth round pick Scott Barnes was a great value but the club then tossed him to Cleveland for veteran first baseman Ryan Garko, who was then non-tendered at the end of the season.

The club had six choices in the first round and supplemental first round of the ’07 draft. That netted the club Bumgarner and Alderson with the first two picks but the last four players have yet to develop as expected (two of those choices, though, were questionable at the time). The club then lacked second, third, and fourth round picks due to free agent signings. The selection of Runzler in the ninth round helped to make up for that.

Scouting director John Barr has overseen the last two drafts for the club, after taking over for Matt Nerland, and Barr returns for 2010. The farm director has changed three times in the past five years. Fred Stanley will return for his second season overseeing the club’s prospects.

For the organization to remain competitive long-term, it’s going to have to rely on developing (and holding on to) its own cost-controlled talent. Once an offensive juggernaut (thanks mostly to Barry Bonds), the club now has a pretty weak lineup and it lacks the minor-league resources to acquire players via the trade market. Fewer and fewer clubs are letting key players make it to free agency for their peak seasons, so that leaves in-house development as the best place to find talent. Hopefully the Giants front office has gotten the memo.

The FanGraphs App was featured today in the New York Times where they call it a “nifty iPhone app”.

FanGraphs ($3) is a nifty iPhone app that crunches almost every conceivable baseball-related statistic, including a team’s probability of winning a game as it proceeds.

In other FanGraphs iPhone app news, it was featured as one of the iTunes Baseball App Essentials.