According to a presentation on Wednesday by Eric Ding of the Harvard School of Public Health, more baseball players are overweight than at any previous point in history — according to the numbers, 55.5% of players from 2000-2006 were overweight by Body Mass Index. (Only 46.5% had been overweight from 1940-1950.) Moreover, “greater home-run (HR) hitters were also more overweight,” and “overweight HR hitters had a significant 19% higher mortality risk… while no elevated risk was found among greater HR hitters who were not overweight.”

There’s an obvious elephant in the room, of course: the study didn’t address steroids, one of the most likely reasons that a player’s Body Mass Index might have increased between 2000 and 2006. All the same, it’s an important study, for two reasons: we don’t have any reliable way to know how many players juiced during the steroid era, but this is a vivid illustration that steroids were prevalent enough to change the average ballplayer’s shape — and prevalent enough to increase the mortality rate of the most successful ballplayers.

Naturally, the news article written about Dr. Ding’s presentation finds someone willing to dispute the study’s findings, especially as they relate to power hitters. “Baseball players are getting heavier because they are getting stronger,” says Mets team physician Struan Coleman. He suggests that steroids themselves are the true reason for increased ballplayer mortality, but that the bigger bodies that steroids may help develop — making someone technically overweight by Body Mass Index — are no health risk. I find his argument a bit hard to swallow, however, in light of the Harvard study, which covers 1876-2007. The height of the steroid era is generally acknowledged to be just the last two decades of that 131-year period, and the study is clear to note that “effects were similar across different leagues and different baseball eras.” (Also, it’s unkind of me to point this out, but Dr. Coleman didn’t have a very good year last year, as much of the Mets roster went down with injury.)

I’m afraid I need to get on my soapbox for a second. The thing is, the worst part of the steroid era isn’t necessarily behind us. The worst part will be watching the tragic, untimely passing of many who played in the past decade and who put unsupportable weight on their bodies, like Ken Caminiti. Absent a perfect laboratory environment (or exact documentation of who used and who didn’t), we can’t know exactly what effect PEDs have between the foul lines. But public health officials have a much better sense of what steroids do to the human body. They take years off a person’s life. On that point, both Dr. Ding and Dr. Coleman can agree.

General Manager: Dan O’Dowd
Farm Director: Marc Gustafson
Scouting Director: Bill Schmidt

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Tyler Matzek, LHP, California HS
1. Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State
1S. Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb [91-96 FB, SL, CH]
2. Nolan Arenado, 3B, California HS
3. Ben Paulsen, 1B, Clemson

The jury remains out of the ’09 draft, but the club really did not see good draft results between 2006 and 2008.

This past season, everyone was shocked that the club was able to sign Matzek, one of the top prep arms in the draft, to such a “reasonable” deal. The left-hander quickly became one of the organization’s best pitching prospects and he could open 2010 in low-A ball. It’s also possible that he could also see some time in extended spring training depending on how he looks in the spring. There really is no need to rush him. Brothers, on the other hand, should move very quickly. The left-hander has two plus pitches: fastball and slider. He could end up being what Casey Weathers was supposed to be prior to his injury: a dominating closer.

Wheeler was a safe, stats-driven pick out of college. He’s a corner outfielder who projects to have fringe-average power for right field. He does a little bit of everything, despite a modest debut in short-season ball in ’09 (.256/.332/.381 in 273 at-bats). An offense-first prospect, Arenado had a solid debut in rookie ball and he hit .300/.351/.404 in 203 at-bats. He has more power potential than his ISO rate of .103 would suggest. Defensively, he has a strong arm but scouts are not sold on him at third base.

Drafted in the third round, a lot of questions remain about Paulsen’s ultimate potential due to his lack of power (.097 ISO) at first base. Unfortunately, his approach at the plate doesn’t make him a great hitter for average, either, as he’s overly aggressive.

2008 1st Round: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
2. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Georgia Tech
3. Aaron Weatherford, RHP, Mississippi State
14x – Joseph Massey, OF, Tennessee HS
37x – Delta Cleary, OF, Louisiana JC

Friedrich turned out to be a steal and he is on the club’s Top 10 list. Blackmon just missed the Top 10 list despite hitting .307/.370/.433 in 550 at-bats. He also stole 30 bases in 43 tries. Weatherford appeared in just 18 games out of the ‘pen in ’09 while pitching in short-season ball and low-A.

Massey had a rough first full season in pro ball by hitting .220/.261/.290 in 404 at-bats. He showed zero power (.069 ISO), limited strike zone awareness and poor base running (eight steals in 17 tries). Cleary is also rough around the edges but he showed a little more promise at low-A by hitting .256/.315/.376 with 30 steals in 41 attempts.

Kiel Roling (6th round) has some potential too, but the move from catcher to first base hurt his overall value. He hit .331/.401/.593 in 344 low-A at-bats.

2007 1st Round: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
2. Brian Rike, OF, Louisiana Tech
3. Lars Davis, C, Illinois

This draft was dealt a blow when Weathers underwent Tommy John surgery. He has a good chance of returning to his old form, though, and he still made the Top 10 list. Rike has been a disappointment and he hit just .196/.271/.361 in 368 disastrous at-bats at high-A in ’09. A .279 wOBA leads to very few positive comments. Likewise, Davis’ .562 OPS at high-A ball tells you all that you need to know.

Pitcher Connor Graham (5th round) showed some potential but he was traded to Cleveland last season for veteran reliever Rafael Betancourt. Third baseman Darin Holcomb could develop into a bench or platoon player in the Majors.

2006 1st Round: Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford
2. David Christensen, OF, Florida HS
3. Keith Weiser, LHP, Miami (Ohio)
29x – Shane Lowe, SS, Missouri HS

Reynolds was a bad pick from the start (with some of the other players still on the board) and injuries all but ruined his career. He appeared in just one game in 2009. Christensen’s .234 batting average was a career high in ’09, as was his .745 OPS. The outfielder’s strikeout rate was an astonishing 38.5% in low-A ball. Weiser is a command/control artist who posted a walk rate of just 1.67 BB/9 at double-A in ’09. However, his FIP was 4.54 and his strikeout rate came in at 5.57 K/9. Lowe did not break .190 in his three-year career and his ’09 strikeout rate was 43.2%.

Catcher Mike McKenry was a steal in the seventh round. Right-hander Brandon Hynick (8th round) could be a useful MLB arm, but he was traded to the White Sox.

Up Next: The Colorado Rockies Top 10 Prospects

Not many catchers make it to their late 30s. The wear and tear that results from squatting behind the plate for an hour or more per game often chases catchers from the game before age 37. In fact, only nine players in baseball history have caught more than 100 games in their age-37 season. Among them, Jorge Posada stands out. He has the highest BA, OBP, and SLG for age-37 catchers, marks he attained last year. But does this bode well for his age-38 season?

At the Bloomberg Sports blog, Tommy Rancel runs down third-tier fantasy catchers. After the top tier, Joe Mauer, and the second, Brian McCann and Victor Martinez, Rancel lists Miguel Montero, Matt Wieters, and Chris Iannetta. Completely absent from the article is Posada. His advanced age and recent injury history certainly plays into that. Even so, among catchers with at least 430 PA in 2009 Jorge led the way in ISO, and ranked second, to Mauer, in wOBA. So why leave him off the list?

History provides us with the beginnings of an answer. While nine players caught more than 100 games at age 37, only five did so at age 38* — and only three have done it since 1940. Only one, Benito Santiago in 2003, slugged over .400. Fred Jacklitsch holds the highest OBP in the group, .376, but he did it in 1914. Among the post-1940 players, Santiago’s .329 OBP leads the way. The catchers that did make it to age 38, it appears, were known more for their defensive skills than offensive prowess.

* To be fair, two other age-37 catchers also played that season in 2009, Jason Varitek and Ivan Rodriguez.

On the age-37 list, the only other catcher to post an OPS of .800 or above was Carlton Fisk, who posted a .348 wOBA in 1985. In 1986 he played in 125 games, but started only 65 behind the plate. But even if he had caught 100 games in 1986, his numbers would rank him as the worst among his peers. His OPS sat at a lowly .600 that season, resulting in a -1.5 WAR. Age 38 does not appear to be a catcher-friendly one.

Even if Posada’s skills don’t decline as dramatically as his historical counterparts, his recent injuries do present a cause for concern. After avoiding the DL for the first 11 seasons of his career, Posada succumbed to shoulder issues in 2008, missing 109 days. While his shoulder did hold up in 2009, he did miss 24 days because of a hamstring injury. That’s 133 days over the past two seasons missed to injury. With another year taking its toll on his body, we shouldn’t be surprised at all if Jorge gets hurt in 2010.

How far will Posada decline? Because he ranked so far ahead of his peers at age 37, because of his recent injury history, and because he was one of the top offensive catchers in 2009, it’s difficult to say. Maybe he’ll be like Benito Santiago, who saw only a small drop-off in performance from age 37 to 38. Or maybe he’ll be like Fisk, who completely fell off — but who also came back and posted a few more excellent partial seasons before retiring. That will be part of the joy in watching Posada’s 2010 season. He’s in rare territory, not only in terms of his age as a catcher, but his performance at that age. Can he do it for one more season?

100 years ago, Henry Ford announced “the five dollar day,” drastically raising the price he was willing to pay for labor at his car company. While a pay raise for a lot of employees is generally not the first thing you think of when you want to cut costs, Ford generated significant savings for his company through the move by reducing absenteeism and turnover and motivating his staff to earn one of the coveted spots. He later called the wage increase the “finest cost cutting moves we ever made.”

This is the classic example of the theory of efficiency wages (whether Ford actually intended to follow this theory or not is up for debate, but doesn’t really matter for our purposes). The idea is that, by paying more than the market rate for labor, you can attract higher quality talent and increase the overall productivity of your staff enough to offset the differences in cost. Why am I talking about efficiency wage theory on a baseball blog, though?

Because earlier this week, Major League Baseball announced that they had approved a measure to raise the per diem for minor league players from $20 per day to $25 per day. And they think the 21st century “five dollar a day” plan is good enough. It’s just not, though.

I won’t bang the nutrition drum, which many others have done before me. That teams should be providing healthy meals to their minor leaguers seems obvious, and it continues to amaze that they don’t do so. But beyond just the nutritional aspect of the low per diem, I have to wonder why no team has yet tried to take advantage of an efficiency “wage” by drastically improving the quality of life of their minor league players.

At this point, nearly half of all minor leaguers are international players. These players often sign as teenagers, and then spend anywhere from 4 to 8 years bouncing around through the organization’s minor league affiliates. While we tend to think that players decisions on where to sign are only affected by the signing bonus they are offered, there are clearly other incentives in play.

Quality of life matters, especially to someone who will be spending years on buses, traveling from small town to small town. If every team is offering the same lifestyle in the minors, then the decision really will be all about signing bonuses. But I’d suggest that it may be far more economically viable to offer an across-the-board upgrade for how minor league players are treated.

Rather than offering an extra $100,000 to one sixteen-year-old, buy a nicer bus. Instead of getting into a bidding war for a middle reliever that you don’t need, build a housing complex near your spring training site, and then hire a cadre of personal chefs to crank out high quality ethnic food to ease the transition. And yes, raise the per diem for these kids, so that they’re not left choosing between Burger King and McDonalds for lunch.

Major League Baseball is a big money industry, but at the minor league level, everything is done on a shoestring budget. It doesn’t make sense. It’s time for someone in MLB to put some efficiency wages in play.

Buster Olney’s profile of Mariano Rivera in The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty paints him as a quiet soul. He never chose that song so closely associated with his reign of excellence, yet he’s just the type who meticulously shaves his face with the precision of an assassin before taking the field, shedding weakness in those salted and peppered whiskers.

If that seems overdramatic, well, it is. Bear in mind, grizzly ol’ Mariano’s job is to throw a ball at speeds in upwards of the mid-90s a few times every other night while holding a polar demeanor. His allure is entirely dependent on the amount of hype and dramatization one applies to the situation. It’s a rough life, for sure, if one that pays well and has lead to a life of luxury and high-end endorsement deals.

That’s not an insult to Rivera. He does his job better than just about anyone ever has. Sometime down the road, perhaps long down the road, someone will do it better, but for now, Mariano is the high water mark. Using him as such when it comes to reliever evaluations is hardly new. Using him as the only thing that matters when it comes to reliever evaluations is silly. However, there is at least one thing to be gained from Rivera’s career, and that’s this: Phil Hughes’ season was of teeth-rotting quality out of the pen last year.

Hughes as reliever posted some incredible numbers. He struck out a little under a dozen per nine innings, had a 1.40 ERA and 1.83 FIP, struck out 65 batters while allowing a total of 43 baserunners, and did all this in 51-and-a-third innings. A respectable single season sample size for a reliever, albeit one small by regression standards. It’s because of that (and something else coming up in a moment) that makes Hughes’ ascent to Firpo Marberry in 1926 status a bit premature.

Ignoring that Hughes is a starter-turned-reliever with a highly capable atlatl on his right side, he’s also looking for his second straight sub-2 FIP season. And it’s just probable. Remember that foolish idea of comparing a reliever’s ability solely to that of Rivera? Yeah, well put on the dunce cap and follow this moron off the cliff.

When the Yankees turned Rivera into a full-time reliever in 1996, he posted a 1.88 FIP in 107 innings as a set-up man. A year later he became the closer and his FIP shot up to 2.96. Rivera has yet to post a FIP under 2.00 despite coming absurdly close in 2008 (2.03). Rivera has posted nine straight seasons with a FIP under 3. His career high for consecutive seasons with a sub 2.5 FIP is a trick question, because he’s never actually accomplished that feat.

That also means he’s never done back-to-back sub-2 FIP seasons. Only three pitchers with at least 40 relief innings have FIP of 2 or lower in back-to-back seasons. And only Rob Dibble has three consecutive seasons. The others are Octavio Dotel and Eric Gagne (the full list resides after the jump). The most insane number is that we’re talking about 20 seasons worth of data and only 32 occurrences.

Yes, FIP likely underrates Rivera. He does things we can’t quantify. Things like limiting contact, mind control, and possessing spice-richened hair follicles. His job is not always boring, but much like bull fighting; entertainment’s apex is reached only when the matador is on the ropes. That’s not a situation Rivera finds himself in often though and wasn’t one Hughes found in 2009. Hughes almost certainly won’t replicate that success in 2010. Pick any reason as to why. At the end of the day, it’s not just because he pitched worse. Even Rivera couldn’t top the odds.
Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Klaasen has written the most about Hank Blalock this year. In January he wrote:

Hank Blalock: -3 hitting, -2 fielding = 0.3 WAR. Do you really think Blalock’s going to play 150? Six years ago, it seemed like he and Mark Teixeira would be torching the AL West for years to come. Tex is a superstar in pinstripes, while Blalock looks like he’s done. I’d say he’ll be lucky to get a major-league deal, but you never know.

And in February:

Hank Blalock
Career Split: 21.8% (1060 PA v LHP)
Regressed: 15.4%
CHONE projected wOBA: .328
Estimated wOBA vs. RHP: .342
Estimated wOBA vs. LHP: .291

It may seem like Hank Blalock was good just a couple years ago, but it’s really been six. He has even a bigger split than Delgado, but he’s also not as good of a hitter in general. A .342 wOBA part-time DH can be useful, but not often.

With that in mind, here’s the book on Blalock: He’s an above average hitter against right-handed pitching and a sub-par fielder at either corner base with a history of injuries who figures to come pretty darn cheap*. Naturally, the Marlins and Rays are reportedly interested. Since the Marlins still play in the National League, Blalock figures to be under consideration as a first baseman. The Fish’s first base depth chart looks like this:

Gaby Sanchez
Jorge Cantu
Wes Helms
Logan Morrison

Cantu figures to start at third and Morrison is probably going to the minors for a little more seasoning, which leaves Sanchez and Helms as the main competition. That means Sanchez is the Marlins’ first baseman. Here’s where it gets interesting though. If the Marlins really want to maximize on the margins, then adding Blalock and placing him in a platoon with Sanchez could make sense. Minor League Splits has Sanchez with a 1.000 OPS against lefties in 469 at-bats and a .824 OPS in 1,288 at-bats versus righties.

Those splits obviously will not translate on a 1:1 basis to the majors and those numbers are unadjusted and spread across various leagues and hitting environments. The question the Marlins have to answer is this: Does Sanchez have any more room for development? It’s a simple cost-benefit analysis. The cost in adding Blalock is (possibly) negatively affecting Sanchez’ development, while the benefit is helping the overall team dynamic.

Given that the Marlins have already offered Blalock a minor league deal, maybe they’re just trying to get the best of both worlds.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I looked at an exchange between Jon Sciambi and Chipper Jones concerning how often the latter swings at first pitches. Some commenters bristled at the idea of a broadcaster giving hitting advice to Chipper Jones. I don’t disagree with that take That was never Sciambi’s intention, and, anyway, what I found interesting about the interaction was more the idea that, when a player is confronted with these new metrics – especially a player as good as Jones – there is the possibility that his response can give us deeper insights into the game. Again quoting Jones’s response to ‘Duk:

“There are certain pitchers, quite frankly, that you can’t get behind,” Jones said. “You want to be aggressive and the first hittable fastball that you get is the pitch you want to put in play. Because they’ll bury you if they get ahead of you. You can’t let them do that.

So instead of saying, “He is swinging too often at the first pitch,” we can say, “Huh, maybe this is part of the reason for his success.” This take was well articulated by Tangotiger over at The Book Blog.

Taking that tack we can look at how Jones approaches at-bats against different pitchers. Here I looked at the rate Jones swings at pitches in the zone separated out as first pitches and all others based on the opposing pitcher’s xFIP. Standard errors of the fit curves are indicated.

The results are just as Jones said; against pitchers with a low xFIP, presumably the certain pitcher he was referring to, he is just as likely to swing at a first pitch in the zone as he is to swing at subsequent pitches in the zone. But against average-or-poor pitchers he swings much less often at first pitches in the zone than subsequent pitches in the zone. So Jones’s aggressiveness on first pitches is seen just against better pitchers.

The obvious question is the extent to which other hitters show this same trend, and, if they don’t, how much it factors into Jones’s success. More generally, it raises questions about how hitters respond differently when facing good pitchers. The converse, how pitchers pitch differently to the good hitters, has been examined, but I am not aware of studies on this.

General Manager: Jon Daniels
Farm Director: Scott Servais
Scouting Director: Kip Fagg

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The organization graduated a number of prospects in ’09 (Elvis Andrus, Julio Borbon, etc.) but the Top 10 list is still going strong, which is a testament to the system’s depth. With that said, the back end of the list starts to get a little weak but there are some sleepers in the organization and the club offered a number of over-slot deals in the ’09 draft, which will help for 2010.

1. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Majors
DOB: May 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Atlanta)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-97 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Feliz wowed a lot of people in his MLB debut in ’09 and it’s fortunate that his rookie eligibility did not expire. He posted a 2.48 FIP in 31.0 big league relief innings and allowed just 13 hits. Along with that, he showed solid control (2.32 BB/9) and an eye-popping strikeout rate (11.32 K/9). The good news for Rangers fans (and bad news for hitters) is that Feliz will be converted back to a starting pitcher, which is a role he has had for much of his career. He could be an outstanding reliever but Feliz also holds the potential to be a solid No. 1 or 2 starter with a little more experience and development of his secondary pitches. He relied very heavily on his fastball in ’09 at the MLB level (+70%) and it would be nice to see him inch that ground-ball rate up over 40%. As a starter, the 21 year old may need a little more seasoning in the minors.

2. Justin Smoak, 1B, Double-A
DOB: December 1986 Bats: B Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – University of South Carolina
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Smoak’s season began well when he hit .328/.449/.481 in 183 double-A games despite spending just 14 games at the A-ball level in ’08. However, he then hit the disabled list and struggled in triple-A upon his return. The switch-hitter managed a line of just .244/.363/.360 in 197 at-bats after the promotion. Smoak’s power all but dried up as his ISO dropped from .153 to .117. His strikeout rate rose from 19.1% to 22.8%, although his walk rate remained good at 14.8% at the senior level. A former first round draft pick, he projects to be an above-average regular but he needs to improve against left-handers (.626 OPS vs lefties, .950 vs righties). He should opened the 2010 season back in triple-A but he should eventually push Chris Davis to DH.

3. Martin Perez, LHP, Double-A
DOB: April 1991 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Perez is another talented hurler in the Rangers system. The southpaw began in the year in low-A ball and he impressed by allowing 82 hits in 93.2 innings while posting a 3.82 FIP. He showed good control (3.17 BB/9) and missed a lot of bats (10.09 K/9). The 18-year-old pitcher was so impressive that he skipped high-A and moved right to double-A where he posted a 3.82 FIP in 21.0 innings (five starts). Perez continued to show good control but his strikeout rate dropped to 6.00 K/9 in the small-sample size. He’ll need to keep improving his change-up but his fastball and curveball make an intriguing one-two combination. Perez should open ’10 back in double-A.

4. Kasey Kiker, LHP, Double-A
DOB: November 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 1st round – Alabama HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Kiker gets lost in the shuffle a bit but he was a top draft pick in ’07 and he had a nice season in ’09 at the double-A level. The 22-year-old southpaw made 25 double-A appearances and he posted a 4.20 FIP in 126.0 innings while allowing 108 hits. His control slipped in ’09 (4.71 BB/9) but his strikeout rate remained good at 8.57 K/9 thanks to his good change-up and developing curveball. His fastball remains inconsistent, both in terms of command and velocity. The two biggest concerns right now are his low ground-ball rate, which is below 40%, and his L/R splits: 1.13 WHIP vs lefties, 1.43 vs righties. He could develop into a No. 3 starter but he likely needs at least one more year of seasoning in the minors.

5. Robert Ross, LHP, Short-season
DOB: June 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Kentucky HS
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, slider, change-up

There have been some mixed reviews on Ross, but the lefty had a nice debut in short-season ball in ’09. He showed good control with a walk rate of just 2.06 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was impressive at 9.20 K/9, especially given his lack of experience. From a scouting standpoint, Ross has better-than-average velocity on his fastball but it has lacked movement at times. He received excellent sink on the pitch in ’09, though, and produced a ground-ball rate just above 63%. It’s not that easy to find left-handed pitching prospects with good velocity and nice ground-ball numbers, so the Rangers have something here in Ross. The organization just needs to be patient.

6. Wilmer Font, RHP, Low-A
DOB: May 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Font is another impressive international find for the organization. The right-hander is a strong-bodied hurler at 6’4” 210 lbs so he should be a durable workhorse for the club. Only 19, he spent the ’09 season in low-A ball and allowed 93 hits in 108.1 innings while posting a 3.62 FIP. His control clearly needs work after he posted a 4.90 BB/9 but he had a good strikeout rate at 8.72 K/9. Font also needs to get more balls on the ground (37 GB%) despite a good HR/9 rate of 0.33. He’ll likely move up to the California League in 2010 where the balls fly out of the ball parks at a much higher rate. With some adjustments, Font has a bright future ahead of him.

7. Mitch Moreland, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 17th round – Mississippi State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Perhaps the biggest mover and shaker in the system in ’09, Moreland went from a 17th round draft pick out of college in ’07 to a Top 10 prospect in ’09, which is no small feat. After spending all of ’08 in low-A ball, Moreland played at both high-A and double-A in ’09 and should start this season in triple-A. The left-handed hitter produced a triple-slash line of .341/.421/.594 in 170 high-A at-bats. His line in double-A was .326/.373/.488 and he saw his power dip from an ISO rate of .253 to .163. Moreland has hit more than .325 over the past 240 minor league games, but he’s been aided by very high BABIPs (.359 in ’09) so you would have to expect some regression at the MLB level but his low strikeout rates show that he makes good contact. For a corner outfielder (and first baseman), his power is probably average. Defensively, he has poor range but a very good arm.

8. Wilfredo Boscan, RHP, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, change-up, curveball

Boscan is not as flashy as Feliz or Perez, but he’s displayed some intriguing numbers despite an average fastball (albeit one that projects to add velocity). The right-hander has shown outstanding control over the past two seasons by posting walk rates of 1.43 and 1.62 BB/9. He’s also been right around the 50% ground-ball rate in his North American career (0.60 HR/9 in ’09). Of note is the drop in strikeouts, from 9.09 in ’08 to 5.04 K/9 in ’09. As mentioned, though, his 6’2” 160 lbs frame has room to fill out and develop. Boscan’s solid change-up gives him a real weapon to combat lefties (.212 vs .275 average). He just needs some more success against right-handers.

9. Michael Main, RHP, High-A
DOB: December 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

A serious viral infection derailed Main’s ’09 season and the right-hander has yet to make more than 16 starts in a season since signing in ’07. He made it back to the mound late in the season and showed potential but he’ll still need to show some that he can stay healthy for a full season and shoulder a starting pitcher’s workload. Main has the potential to have three pitches grade out at least average, or he could focus on developing his fastball and curveball into plus pitches, which might make him a dominating late-game reliever. Just 21, time is still on his side but he needs to show something in 2010 for people to keep believing in him as a top prospect.

10. Max Ramirez, C, Majors
DOB: October 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2002 non-drafted international free agent (Atlanta)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1

The back end of my Top 10 list was originally thrown into disarray when pitching prospect Danny Gutierrez was suspended for 50 games. It was enough to cause him to fall off my list entirely since this was not the first time that he’s had a cloud over his head. As a result, though, Ramirez makes the list despite having his own question marks thanks to his health. Ramirez was almost traded to Boston for veteran third baseman Mike Lowell during the off-season before injury concerns (for both players) put the kibosh on that deal. If healthy, Ramirez has the chance to be a third-string catcher, back-up first baseman and DH. The 25-year-old prospect is coming off a disappointing season that saw him hit .234/.323/.336 in 274 at-bats. He also showed a significant decrease in power (.102 ISO, his lowest total in four years) but that may have been caused by injuries. Ramirez shows good patience at the plate, but his 31.0% strikeout rate, which is right in line with his career norms, is cause for concern. Defensively, he’s not good enough to play as an everyday catcher.

Up Next:The Colorado Rockies

Every year, a couple of players make the journey from Japan to Major League Baseball. Those who do come on one of many paths. In this post I’ll walk through what those paths are, and which players could be headed down each this season.

Free Agency
The path most traveled is that of free agency. International NPB free agency is difficult to attain, requiring nine years of service time, where a year is defined as 150 days on the active roster of a top level team. Time spent on the injured list usually does not count toward free agency, though sometimes players are credited retroactively for time missed.

Put it all together and you have a system that allows very few players to attain free agency privileges before age 30. The 2009 class was weak, with only Ryota Igarashi commanding an MLB deal, and the 2010 class doesn’t figure to be any better. Nonetheless, there are a couple names to keep an eye on.

• Tatsuhiko Kinjo (OF, Yokoham BayStars) — had an unreal season in 2000, but has been a pretty average contact hitter in recent years. Would be an MLB 4th outfielder.
• Hiroyuki Kobayashi (RHP, Chiba Lotte Marines) — under-appreciated righty is coming off a couple rough seasons and will be moved to the bullpen in 2010.

The Posting System
I’ll take it for granted that most readers of this site have heard of the posting system, which allows NPB teams to auction players who are not free agents to MLB teams. If you haven’t, check out the Wikipedia page on the topic. In the 11-year history of the posting system, only 10 players have been successfully posted, and none since Daisuke Matsuzaka, Akinori Iwamura, and Kei Igawa in 2006. The last attempted use of the posting system was in the 2008-9 offseason, when Seibu twice honored lefty Koji Mitsui’s request to be posted. There were no takers.

Why would an NPB use the posting system? In some cases it has been a courtesy to the player; other times the team is trying to get something in return for an obviously MLB-bound player, just like MLB teams trade impending free agents.

Two star pitchers have made it known that they want to move to MLB sooner rather than later. It is, of course, up to the team to agree to post them.

• Wei-Yin Chen (LHP, Chunichi Dragons) — Chen is a 23-year-old Taiwanese lefty with an electric arm, coming off a breakout season in which he put up a 1.54 ERA over 164 innings. Chunichi doesn’t want to let him go, but he’s putting pressure on the team through the media and has retained agent Alan Nero with an eye toward an MLB move.
• Kyuji Fujikawa (RHP, Hanshin Tigers) — Fujikawa is Japan’s top closer (86 Ks in 57.2 IP in 2009), and has been talking on and off about moving to MLB for years. Hanshin has consistently said “no way,” but he keeps asking, and maybe they’ll cave before he hits free agency.

Released Players
Japanese teams release players every year, just like their MLB counterparts. You wouldn’t expect a player who’s failed to perform well enough to stay employed in Japan to be much of an MLB prospect, but increasingly Japanese players see the US minor leagues as life beyond NPB. A recent notable example is Ryohei Tanaka, who put up better numbers at Double-A in the Orioles organization than he ever did for Chiba Lotte’s farm team.

Amateur Free Agency
For many years, MLB and NPB were bound by an unofficial agreement barring MLB teams from signing draft-eligible amateur Japanese players as free agents. Then Junichi Tazawa came along in 2008 and disrupted the system. High school lefty Yusei Kikuchi might have followed suit in 2009, but NPB put on a full court press, and he gave into social pressures and wound up getting drafted and signed by the Seibu Lions.

Slightly beneath the surface, less celebrated Japanese prospects have been signing with MLB clubs for years, though only two (Mac Suzuki and Kazuhito Tadano) have reached the majors. This last offseason, the Mariners signed high school player Pedro Okuda and the Indians inked college righty Takafumi Nakamura. So we’ll see a range of talent sign as amateur free agents; from 1st round draft-level talent to more raw players with some upside.

My opinion is that it’s a matter of time before we see another top NPB draft prospect challenge the system and sign with an MLB club. It could happen this year, as we’re looking forward to a deep draft class. I won’t speculate on any specific names just yet; that will come once the high school and college seasons begin.

Returnees
In a given year, the 12 NPB teams collectively have about 70 foreign players under contract, the vast majority of whom arrived in Japan via MLB affiliated ball. Turnover tends to be very high, and a good number of those players (30%-50%) won’t be back for another season. Most of the players returning Stateside after playing in Japan wind up on Triple-A rosters, but occasionally a few gems come through. This offseason, Colby Lewis and Scott Atchison both got MLB deals after playing two years in Japan.

While I don’t see a talent of Lewis’s caliber on the horizon, there are a couple of interesting relievers to look out for:

• Brian Falkenborg (RHP, SoftBank Hawks) — Falkenborg fits the fringey MLB reliever with good velocity and middling control profile that NPB teams like. His first year in Japan was outstanding, running a 1.74 ERA and 61:9 K:BB over 51.1 innings pitched.
• Juan Morillo (RHP, Rakuten Golden Eagles) — Morillo has yet to throw his first pitch in Japan, but he has Brian Wilson-esque velocity still has some upside at 26. If he can learn to throw strikes in Japan he’ll get MLB attention.

I was having some fun with the FAN projections and thought it might be neat to attempt to see where the visitors here at FanGraphs have collectively ranked the teams based on the individual player projections.

Just some quick notes:

– Everything had to be scaled back considerably and evened up for playing time. Pitchers as a whole are projected at about 4 wins too high per team and batters are projected at about 6 wins too high per team. Fielding stats were the most realistic and were only about 1 win too high.

– These standings are also simply based on wins above average (calculated FanGraphs WAR style) and for the most part use the entire projected player pool. Some players with well below 0 WAR were left out and players needed at least 5 ballots to be included.

– I should also note, that I’m posting these as a launching off point for discussion and not much more.

Team       Wins
Yankees      98
Red Sox      94
Rays         92
Orioles      78
Blue Jays    71

Twins        82
White Sox    79
Tigers       78
Indians      76
Royals       73

Rangers      84
Mariners     83
Athletics    81
Angels       80

Braves       89
Phillies     84
Marlins      80
Mets         78
Nationals    72

Cardinals    88
Cubs         78
Brewers      78
Reds         77
Astros       72
Pirates      68

Rockies      87
Diamondbacks 87
Dodgers      84
Giants       80
Padres       79

And there you have it.

If anyone wants to give these a go, you can always export the FAN Projections and try it out yourself.