Surprising fact of the early season: with 8 games and 35 PAs Jeff Francoeur has six walks. That puts him in the top 35 for number of walks and walk rate. Last year his walk rate of 3.6% was 4th worst, and he did not collect his sixth walk until June 2nd (he finished with 23). His best walk-taking eight-game span last year was 6/2 to 6/10 when he took four walks. In 2008 it was 7/27/08 to 8/2/08 when he had five walks. And back in 2007 he had two eight-game six-walk spans (4/11/07 to 4/18/07 and 9/8/07 to 9/16/07). So Francouer has had such periods of patience in his past, but they are relatively distant and very rare.

Looking at the per-pitch numbers his O-swing rate is just as poor as always, but his Z-Swing rate is down (67% this year compared to a career average of 81%). It is counter intuitive but swinging at fewer pitches in the zone could contribute to more walks. By swinging at fewer of these pitches he gets called strikes, but also extends at-bats in which he could potentially take a walk. The other big change so far is his number of pitches in the zone (44% compared to 50%). Fewer swings and more pitches out of the zone means more walks. With the small number of PAs the lower Zone% is probably just random variation, but it might also have to do with the quality of hitters he is in front of (twice Fernando Tatis, twice Gary Matthews Jr. and four times Rod Barajas).

Either way as Dave C. noted we should take these 35 PAs with the smallest grain of salt compared to his almost 3000 career PAs. But the fact that he has accomplished something that it took him until June 2nd to do last year (get six walks) and that he has done just twice before in his career, and both times back in 2007, (six walks in eight games) should at least be applauded. This is also encouraging based on his apparent change in attitude towards walks: going from “If on-base percentage is important, then why don’t they put it up on the scoreboard?” in the middle of last season, to “If I can mix in 50-60 walks, I become a totally different guy” this offseason. You sure do Jeff.

Having good pitching depth within an organization means that a MLB starter should never get too comfortable. Orioles right-hander Brad Bergesen is no doubt looking over his shoulder after two poor outings to start the season. The right-handed pitcher, best known for his sinking fastball, has allowed 15 hits and three walks in 7.2 innings. Bergesen’s fastball command has betrayed him so far this year and he got just one ground-ball out (compared two five fly-ball outs) last night against the Tampa Bay Rays.

There are currently two key pitching prospects biding their time in triple-A Norfolk. Jake Arrieta, 24, has seen his ground-ball rate take the opposite turn to Bergesen’s. In two starts, he’s allowed just six hits in 12.0 innings. On Wednesday night against the White Sox’ triple-A affiliate in Charlotte, Arrieta induced 11 ground-ball outs and gave up just four fly-ball outs. If he can keep up the worm burning it will help him while pitching in the potent American League East. His biggest need right now is to improve his control after walking six batters in 12.0 innings; it’s an issue that plagued him last season, as well.

Chris Tillman, 22, is technically no longer a rookie but the O’s sent him back to triple-A to begin 2010. He made 12 starts in the Majors in ’09 and he posted a FIP of 6.10. He showed OK control for his age with a walk rate of 3.32 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was on the low side at 5.40 K/9. Tillman struggled significantly with his fastball and posted a -1.62 wFB/C (fastball value, runs above average per 100 pitches). He’s struggling a bit in triple-A right now with a 5.19 ERA in two starts. He’s allowed 13 hits in 8.2 innings. On the plus side, he has struck out nine batters and walked just two.

If those two pitching options don’t do anything for you, the club has Brandon Erbe (22) and Troy Patton (24) in the Norfolk starting rotation. The organization also has the luxury of looking to MLB reliever Jason Berken, who was in the starting rotation last season for Baltimore, albeit with ugly results. His approach is better suited to the bullpen.

It’s still early – and too soon to panic – but the Orioles club plays in the American League East where every win counts. The club is not going to wait forever for Bergesen to find his mojo, especially when they have the luxury of quality pitching depth.

It appeared that 2009 was something of a turnaround for Reds RHP Homer Bailey. The No. 5 overall prospect in 2007, Bailey struggled during his first two major league stints. His minor league walk rate, 3.8 per nine innings, suggested he might hand out a few too many free passes in the majors, at least in the early goings, so it didn’t come as much of a surprise when he did. His stuff and his minor league numbers, however, suggested that he might be a bit more proficient with the strikeout. His rates dropped considerably upon promotion, though, just 5.1 per nine in 2007 and 2008.

The Reds exercised patience with Bailey in 2009, keeping him on the major league roster despite his poor performances. After a poor start on August 18 against San Francisco his ERA peaked at 7.53. In 55 innings he had walked 28 to just 33 strikeouts. He had also surrendered 10 home runs, which certainly helped inflate his ERA. From that point on, though, Bailey showed marked improvement, at least in the results. In 58.1 innings to finish the season he allowed just 11 runs. Even better, he walked 24 to 53 strikeouts and allowed just two home runs.

On the negative end, September results can mislead. Teams expand their rosters, so there are many more young, inexperienced players getting into games. Plenty of teams have little to play for at that point, too, and will likely give their youngsters a longer look. This is especially true of a team like the Pirates, again whom Bailey logged 25.1 innings. He did face three playoff teams, the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Rockies, so there were at least some positives to take from the experience. It also boded a bit well that he allowed just two runs over 20.2 innings against them.

In his first two starts of 2010, though, Bailey has looked a lot more like he did in 2008 than he did in 2009. Over just 10.1 innings he has thrown 221 pitches and has allowed 21 batters to reach base. That includes two home runs, both of which came in his start last night against the Marlins. Through 5.1 innings he threw 115 pitches, walking four and allowing 12 baserunners. Only one of those walked batters came back to haunt him, though he can’t expect to be that lucky in the future. The two home runs also came with no one on base. Again, we can’t expect that to continue if he allows more than two baserunners per inning.

The two home runs, to Brett Carroll and Jorge Cantu, both came on high and inside pitches that didn’t get quite inside enough. Both came on fastball varieties, a four-seamer to Carroll and a splitter to Cantu. The velocity on each appears a bit down from last year, when Bailey averaged 94.5 mph on his fastball and 88.5 mph on the splitter. So far this year that’s down to 92.7 and 86.8. We’re dealing with small samples so far this year, and there’s a good chance that there are inaccuracies in these readings. Bailey’s secondary pitches, however, clock at almost exactly the same speeds they did last year. So while we can’t draw much from this now, it’s certainly something to examine as we get a bit larger sampling on Bailey this season.

(Then again, while the BIS data has only his fastball and splitter down, PitchFX has his curveball down as well, and his slider up. It gives me confidence that things will even out over a few more starts.)

While Bailey still has the potential to turn into a fine major league pitcher, he still has plenty to improve on before he can reach it. His strikeout rate isn’t nearly high enough to support walking a batter every other inning. His home run tendencies have continued to plague him, and while he was at a reasonable level last year I’m not sure we can peg him for a recovery this year. He pitched pretty horribly during the first half of his major league stint, and his dominance in his second half came either against teams comfortably in the playoffs, or else the Pirates.

The Reds field a quality defense, with above-average players at most positions on most days. Bailey’s problems, however, stem from issues that his defense can’t solve. Chris Dickerson can’t catch a ball popped over the teal monster. Scott Rolen can’t make a fancy play on a walk. In other words, the impetus to improve is all on Bailey himself. He’s yet to prove he can do it against major league rosters from April through August. While he’ll continue to get chances in 2010, he’s off to a pretty bad start. Unfortunately for him, he’ll miss Pittsburgh this time around. His next chance to show improvement comes against the Dodgers next week.

Most teams have played eight or nine games at this point, so the numbers are still essentially meaningless. However, there are still interesting statistical curiosities we can look at. Russell Martin’s ridiculous bat control this season, for instance.

Martin has seen 117 pitches in 2010. He has swung and missed just twice, for a swinging strike rate of just 1.7 percent, compared with a league average 8.2 percent. The main reason he’s not missing pitches? He’s not swinging at anything outside the strike zone.

His O-Swing percentage is a ridiculous 4.4 percent. The league average is 25.6 percent, and the next lowest O-Swing percentage is Colby Rasmus at 9.4 percent. Put simply, if you’re not pounding the zone, Martin is keeping the bat on his shoulder. Because of his early season discipline, he’s only swung the bat in a quarter of the pitches he’s been thrown, which has led to eight walks in 29 trips to the plate.

Martin’s always been a pretty patient hitter, but never to this extreme. In the first week of the season, he’s essentially been the catching version of Tony Gwynn. His eye for the zone has been off the charts good, and it’s the main reason he’s off to such a good start in 2010.

Don’t bet on it continuing, of course. Martin had over 2,300 plate appearances coming into the season, and those are a much better indicator of his abilities than the 30 he’s had so far this year. But, for at least a week, he’s shown how a patient approach at the plate can pay off in a big way. The only-swing-at-strikes philosophy can work for anyone, not just big lumbering power hitters.

I don’t think it will be particularly difficult to decipher where this format came from, but it has always been one of my favorite features on this site. Minor League Baseball has been around for a full week, and while it’s too early to draw conclusions, it has been home to some interesting subplots. As I’ll hope to do every Thursday in this space, here are three items that caught my eye on the farm.

The Kinston Indians are hard to hit.

I drew some criticism in the Future Talent section of our Indians organizational ranking for veering too rose-colored in my evaluation of the Indians farm system. And while it’s too early to be seeking out validation, I have to say the early returns of the Carolina League (High-A) Kinston Indians pitching staff do bode well for the future in Cleveland. Through 7 games, this squad has struck out a professional baseball leading 76 batters (10.86 K/9) en route to a sparkling 1.86 ERA.

Last season’s top draft pick, Alex White, is there, and struck out seven over five scoreless innings in his debut. But the team lead in whiffs is split between Nick Hagadone, one of the keys to last season’s Victor Martinez trade (0 ER, 10 K in 9.1 IP) and solid breakout candidate T.J. House, who whiffed ten in his season debut on Sunday. The bullpen is loaded with solid college arms, like Long Beach State’s David Roberts or UC Irvine’s Bryce Stowell, and has been no contest for their opponents.

Considering top prospect Carlos Santana is destroying Triple-A (.423/.516/.962 in 9 games), Nick Weglarz looks to be bouncing back in Double-A, and the Low-A squad is a perfect 7-0, this Cleveland farm system looks every bit as impressive as we made them out to be a couple weeks ago.

Christian Bethancourt is the next great Latin find for Atlanta.

Get ready to feel old. Braves catching prospect Christian Bethancourt was born in Panama on September 2, 1991. However, given that he’s a $600,000 investment that performed admirably at 17 last summer, the Braves challenged him with a full-season assignment this year to Low-A Rome. In his first game, the teenage catcher went 1-for-3, hitting a home run in the sixth inning. The next day, he went 1-for-4, which he can call his worst outing of the season.

Since then, no minor league hitter has been hotter. His first game at DH was Sunday, and he responded going 4-for-4, hitting a sac fly in his other at-bat for good measure. In his two games since, both behind the dish, Bethancourt has gone 2-for-4 in each, managing to lower his batting average both times. He is now hitting a cool .526/.500/.684 through 20 plate appearances.

Obviously, we could point out that he’s yet to walk, or yet to hit an extra-base hit since the sixth inning of his first game. But however he’s getting it done, it’s still an 18-year-old that has established himself as a force in the season’s first week. The Braves spending big money in the international market is never a good thing for their NL East peers, and while sheer luck will bring the averages down and expose Bethancourt as the unpolished player he is, talent is shining through in his first week.

It’s not so easy to hit in the California League.

Hopefully if you are a fan of the minors, you read this article by Justin Inaz in the offseason detailing the different run environments in minor league baseball. It just serves as a nice reminder to how hitter-friendly the California League has been over the years, comparing to high-altitude leagues like the Pioneer or Mexican, or extremely dry leagues like the Arizona Summer League. I even wondered on Twitter this offseason why they even still bother to have the California League in its current machination, if only for the lunacy that certain stadiums provoke.

Don’t look now, but California League pitchers have been the stars early in this season, as run scoring is down significantly. A league that averaged 5.3 runs per game from 2007-2009 is averaging 4.13 this year, and only two teams have averaged an OPS above .730. The Dodgers have aided in that cause by sending two great arms there, first rounders Aaron Miller and Ethan Martin, who have combined for a 1.69 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 16 innings. I’m also really intrigued by former Angels second rounder Tyler Chatwood, who hasn’t let 8 walks in 10 innings stop him, as he’s getting strikeouts (10) and groundballs (5.0 GO/AO) while pitching close to home.

Of course, summer will come and balls will begin to fly out of Lancaster and High Desert and Bakersfield like they always do, and the silliness of this league will again be proven. But while we actually have competitive baseball in California, let’s relish it and give praise where it’s due.

The are several projection systems available to determine if AL and NL teams played each other who would win by looking at each player’s projections stats. I am going to keep it a little simpler than that here. USA Today has the team payrolls for the 2010 now available. Here is the average payroll for all the American and National League teams:

American League: $95.8 million
National League: $86.0 million

About $10 million extra dollars on the free agent market will get an AL team on average +2.5 WAR to be spread to its players.

Now what happens to the averages when the Yankees and their $206 million payroll are removed from the equation.

American League: $87.3 million
National League: $86.0 million

If the Yankees were to be removed from baseball completely, the two leagues would be more evenly matched up, at least with the amount of dollars spent on players in the major leagues.

There may be other reasons for some of the disparity – better General Managers and young talent in the AL – but again when the discussion gets around to winning in baseball, the Yankees are right in the middle of it.

With the Diamondbacks early season schedule, tomorrow will be the first game which requires the fifth starter. After giving two starts each to Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, and Rodrigo Lopez, Arizona will hand the ball to Kris Benson for their 9th game of the season.

Benson threw 22.1 innings of below-replacement level baseball in 2009, his first major league action since 2006, with Baltimore. His minor league performance wasn’t terribly encouraging either, as between 2008 and 2009, he pitched 129 innings in Triple-A, giving up an FIP above 4.00 and and ERA above 5.00. The last time Benson was truly productive was in 2004, when he allowed a career low 6.2% HR/FB rate and posted 200 innings of a 3.75 FIP, good for 3.8 wins.

Due to his poor performance in the minors and lack of performance in the majors in recent years, projections are not kind to Benson. The 5.37 and 5.31 FIPs projected by CHONE and Marcel, respectively, seem optimistic when compared to the 6.03 projected by ZiPS. Simply put, the projection systems do not believe that Benson is a major league pitcher.

The other option is Billy Buckner, a 26-year-old righthander. Buckner was impressive in Triple-A in 2009, striking out 8.4 batters per 9 innings in 103 innings of 3.31 FIP baseball. On the surface, Buckner looked bad in 77 major league innings (6.40 ERA), but a 63.2% strand rate, 16.7% HR/FB rate, and .347 BABIP suggest poor luck. Buckner still carried a respectable 3.07 K-BB differential and induced a high rate of ground balls at 48.8%.

Buckner’s solid performance in both leagues results in all the projection systems favoring him over Benson, with projections ranging from 4.46-4.63 in FIP. That makes Buckner a slightly below average starter in the NL – worth nearly 2 wins in 200 innings. Buckner had a rough spring, allowing 21 earned runs in 18 innings, but his peripheral line of 18 Ks, 8 BB, and 4 HR doesn’t suggest that he’s nearly that bad of a pitcher, even ignoring the obvious issues with spring training numbers. Still, a 5 IP, 10 H, 7 ER performance in his first minor league start doesn’t exactly instill the front office with optimism.

It’s likely that Buckner’s poor spring and first start is what has deterred the front office from Buckner and towards Benson, whose first minor league start was a five inning scoreless outing. However, it doesn’t appear, based on their recent performance, that Benson is likely to outperform Buckner this season. Billy Buckner should be taking the mound for Arizona today.

Fantastic pitching match-up last night in Cleveland as Carson Cistulli’s boy toy — Colby Lewis – faced off against the Indians’ big return on Victor Martinez. Justin Masterson is only 24 years old, but it feels like he’s been around longer. In limited time as a starter last season, I have him posting a FIP around 4.24. For comparison’s sake, qualified starting pitchers around that mark last season included Matt Garza, Jonathan Sanchez, and Zach Duke. Not too bad for someone who transitioned to the rotation full-time midway through the season.

Masterson had his A-game going last night. His final line included six innings, nine strikeouts, ten groundballs, seven fly balls and line drives, and zero walks. He did give up a home run to Nelson Cruz, but who isn’t giving up hits to him at this point? Regardless, that’s still a really, really good start. Pitchfx data has Masterson throwing mostly sinkers (61), with four-seamers (30) and sliders (15) mixed in. Here are the whiff breakdowns by pitch type:

4FB: 10%
SNK: 11.5%
SLD: 6.7%

This isn’t the only time Masterson has racked up whiffs on his arsenal, either. Last season, he held a contact percentage of 79%, and his career rate is a better-than-average 78.6%. That number is probably aided by his time spent in the pen, but it’s hard to tell it so far. And yes, as you would suspect, the sinker ball-tossing Masterson gets some grounders. His career rate is just shy of 54%.

Gets whiffs, gets groundballs, and throws strikes. That’s a combination to work with. Dave Cameron compared Masterson’s upside to Gil Meche when the Indians acquired him. He’s actually pitched better than that, but the point remains. The quality of the remainder of Cleveland’s package is still up in the air, but Masterson should stay grounded in the Indians’ rotation for years to come.

Young Blue Jays outfielder Travis Snider is off to another rough start. After spring rumblings that Snider would have to “earn his spot on the roster,” he apparently did so. After 34 plate appearances, Snider’s line is .107/.265/.179 for a .195 wOBA, and astounding 6 wRC+. If you’re reading this, I don’t have to tell you that 34 plate appearances don’t mean anything significant for anyone, whether it’s the first two weeks, the last two weeks, or 34 PA randomly selected from different points in the year. Still, it’s hardly what people expected from Snider. So it is already time for another predictable “don’t panic on player x” post.

As a reminder: in 2008, when he was 20, Snider hit .262/.357/.461 with a .366 wOBA in AA , then in a brief stint (70 PA) at AAA hit .344/.386/.519 with a .399 wOBA, then more than held his own in a September call-up (.301/.338/.466, .345 wOBA). At 21, he demolished AAA pitching (.337/.431/.663, .462 wOBA) but wasn’t nearly as dominating in 276 plate appearances in the majors (.241/.328/.419, .327 wOBA). While that line was no doubt disappointing, it was a league average offense performance (100 wRC+) for a hitter of only 21, so he wasn’t lost. Snider’s main problem so far is strikeouts, averaging between 25% and 30% in the minors, and over 30% in the majors, although his walk rate remains above average. According to pitch type linear weights by count, Snider does well against major-league fastballs and is less effective against other pitches, as is stereotypical for many young hitters. Contact is Snider’s primary problem at the plate, although his O-Swing percentage has improved each season in the majors. The monstrous power he has shown in the minors hasn’t translated to the majors yet, but it has been above average. Youth is clearly on Snider’s side. He’s at an age where the his current problems — strike zone judgement and contact — are usually still improving, as is (frighteningly) power.

Snider has been highly regarded as a hitting prospect for some time, but we also know that many highly-regarded prospects disappoint. No guarantees are to be found here, but it’s worth thinking about why patience in Snider is likely to be rewarded (and hopefully this patience will be displayed by the Blue Jays as well, who have absolutely nothing to lose by giving Snider every chance possible in the majors this season).

Snider’s fellow Blue Jay Adam Lind is the obvious comparison. Lind also destroyed the minors, but after than his brief call up in 2006, Lind raked in the minors in 2007 and 2008 while struggling in the majors (.238/.278/.400, .291 wOBA in 2007 and .282/.316/.439, .325 wOBA in 2008). But in 2009… well, all this is also well-known, but its relevance to Snider is that in in 2007 and 2008, during which Lind didn’t hit as well in the majors as Snider did in 2009, Lind was 23 and 24 years old, whereas Snider was only 21 last season. Everyone ages differently, but the younger a player is, the more rapid the upward ascent is likely to be.

Lind never had as severe a strikeout problem as Snider, although he doesn’t take as many walk, either. Nonetheless, both of those statistics have improved year-by-year for Lind, as has his success against offspeed and breaking pitches. Lind is far superior in terms of making contact, which remains the biggest single offensive concern for Snider, but it’s not an insurmountable problem, given Snider’s age and incredible power potential. Young players are can improve quickly when given the chance, and Adam Lind provides an example of the general rule that should give Travis Snider some breathing room.

Do you want to talk a little bit about dominance?

Here is a line for you: 8 IP | 1 H | 12 K | 10 GB | 2 BB | 2 FB

Jays sophomore pitcher Ricky Romero threw the game of his life on Tuesday night against the Chicago White Sox. The southpaw did not allow a ball out of the infield until the seventh inning; the second – and only other fly ball of the night – came on Alex Rios‘ two-run homer that ended Romero’s no-hit bid in the eighth.

Known as a ground-ball pitcher, Romero worked down in the zone and away from the White Sox hitters, many of whom are known for being pull happy. It was a smart approach and with all his pitches working last night, Romero was able to execute with repeated precision. Both his command and control were impeccable with all four of his pitches: four-seam fastball, cutter, change-up, and curve. He has good fastball velocity for a lefty, and he sat between 89-93 mph with the heater for most of the night, but it was Romero’s ability to keep the hitters guessing that led to his success on the mound.

Of his 12 strikeouts, eight came on the change-up, two on the fastball, and two on the curve. Romero’s ground-ball outs came with the fastball (six) and the change-up (four). Clearly, the hitters could not pick up the difference between the fastball and the change-up. His delivery was smooth and effortless.

Romero primarily used his curveball to get ahead in the count early on, often with the first pitch. Although it wasn’t a strikeout pitch for him in most at-bats, the ability to command it helped him set up his knock-out pitches. When a pitcher can command three pitches and get consistent outs with two, he’s going to have a lot of success, as we saw with Romero.

As good as the former No. 1 draft pick was, I want to take a minute to also mention catcher John Buck. The former Royals backstop may be the best free agent signing that the Jays have made in the past few years. He’s off to a pretty good start with the bat, but his true value to the team lies in his work behind the dish. In his first week with the Jays, Buck has clearly earned the trust of the Jays starters.

Rarely have I seen a shake of the head to suggest a disagreement in the pitch selection. The veteran catcher is known for having a game plan detailed before each contest. He appears to be an excellent receiver and he’s created close plays on throws to second base where it appeared the runner would be safe by a country mile.

Although it’s very early, the Jays club is second in the American League in xFIP at 4.01 (fourth in ERA at 3.19). The club is also third in walk rate at 3.05 BB/9. These numbers are significant given that the club has a patch-work starting rotation made up of young hurlers, converted relievers, and veterans returning from significant injuries. Buck, no doubt, deserves a lot of credit for that, as does new pitching coach Bruce Walton.

After eight successful games by the Jays, we should not shift our expectations. It’s still going to be a long season and the club could very well end up with a losing record. However, it’s clearly not going to be all doom-and-gloom as some had suggested prior to the season.