Among early season performances, there is one that is the most shocking.

Carlos Silva, vs left-handed batters:

2008: .348/.381/.555, 2.19 BB/9, 4.37 K/9, 44.5% GB%, 14.6% HR/FB%, .355 BABIP
2009: .380/.436/.718, 3.94 BB/9, 2.25 K/9, 48.5% GB%, 21.1% HR/FB%, .359 BABIP

2010: .083/.081/.083, 0.00 BB/9, 3.97 K/9, 36.7% GB%, 0.0% HR/FB%, .100 BABIP

Silva, who throughout his entire career has struggled mightily with left-handed hitters, has held them to just three singles in 37 plate appearances in his first four starts. And all three of those singles came in his last start. In his first three appearances, he was perfect against LHBs, as they went 0 for 22 against him.

His line against right-handers isn’t all that much different than it has been in the past, even in his last two seasons. Nearly the entirety of the success he’s had to date can be credited to how well he’s gotten lefties out, which is just something he’s never been able to do before.

So, naturally, the first thing I did was take a look at his pitch selection. Silva’s lived primarily off of his two-seam fastball for most of his career, which is why he’s posted such large platoon splits. The pitch works against righties, but not against lefties.

Sure enough, Silva has finally decided to abandon his fastball-only approach to pitching. He’s thrown his sinker just 56.5% of the time (compared to 83.1% last year), and has replaced with his change-up, which he’s now thrown 30.7% of the time.

The change-up has the smallest platoon split of any pitch in baseball, so it would make sense that Silva relying more heavily on it would fare better against southpaws (and, at the same time, see a decrease in his GB%, which he has). To dig further, I asked resident pitch f/x guru Dave Allen to look at Silva’s pitch usage by handedness, and he found that Silva is throwing his change-up 40 percent of the time to LHBs this year, and produced this neat little graph to demonstrate how effective it has been.

He is pounding the down and away corner with change-ups and getting easy outs off of it. His change-up has been +7.7 runs through four starts, according to our pitch type linear weights, making it the most effective change-up in baseball to date.

Now, obviously, lefties won’t post a .100 BABIP against Silva all season, so there’s inevitable regression coming. But it does look like he’s finally learned that he can’t just attack them with two-seam fastballs and hope for the best. If he keeps pounding lefties with his change-up, he might actually stick in the Cubs rotation this year.

Francisco Liriano continued his excellent start to the season last night, with an 8 shutout inning, 10 strikeout start in a 2-0 victory over the Tigers. Now Liriano has only allowed 3 runs in 29 innings, good for a 0.93 ERA. This start is certainly reminiscent of Liriano’s fantastic 2006 season, in which he posted a 2.55 FIP, mostly on the strength of a ridiculous 10.71 K/9 and a fantastic 55.2% ground ball rate. Even though his 2010 FIP is similar, he hasn’t quite returned to the ridiculous level he was at four years ago. Both a .249 BABIP and the unsustainable lack of any home runs allowed have deflated both his ERA and FIP.

Still, there are some excellent signs from Liriano’s first three starts, which continued in last night’s start. Chief among them is his 51.8% ground ball rate. The home run plagued the left hander last season, as he allowed 21 in only 136.2 innings. His 12.5% HR/FB rate doesn’t suggest any sort of terrible luck. Liriano allowed a 41.2% FB rate last season, which would rank in the top 25 among qualified starters. His trend of avoiding the fly continued last night – of the 24 outs Liriano recorded, only 3 were made in the air, and only 5 total fly balls were hit.

The reason that Liriano’s run-allowed numers will likely remain at or above his 2006 level is due to a drop in strikeouts. His 10 strikeout performance yesterday rose his K/9 to 8.67, but that’s still well below his 2006 level. More importantly, his swinging strike rate is nowhere near the ridiculous 2006 level of 16.4%. Prior to last night’s start, batters whiffed on 11% of his pitches, and they whiffed on 12 of his 112 offerings (10.7%) on Tuesday night. That’s a good mark – about 2% over the SP average – but it probably won’t allow him to return to the one strikeout per inning form that made 2006 so special.

Just because Liriano likely won’t return to this mythical 2006 form certainly doesn’t mean that he won’t be a productive pitcher over the rest of the season. His strikeout rate is above average and his ground ball rate has skyrocketed. Both are excellent signs that Liriano can be a sub-4.00 FIP pitcher and power a Twins rotation containing multiple above average pitchers.

Today’s edition of One Night Only brings both (a) the pain and also (b) some serious HTML action. But mostly it brings the pain.

Chicago (AL) at Texas | Wednesday, April 28 | 8:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
White Sox: Jake Peavy (R)
22.1 IP, 6.04 K/9, 6.04 BB/9, .324 BABIP, 33.3% GB, 10.0% HR/FB, 5.99 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.56 (FAN) 3.83 (CHONE) 3.86 (ZiPS)

Rangers: Rich Harden (R)
17.2 IP, 10.19 K/9, 9.17 BB/9, .319 BABIP, 29.2% GB, 10.7% GB, 6.54 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.64 (FAN) 4.08 (CHONE) 3.85 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
Both of tonight’s starting pitchers have begun the season poorly — and, worse yet, they both have Dave Cameron concerned.

Of Peavy, Cameron wrote on April 23rd:

He’s walked as many batters (15) as he’s struck out. His groundball rate is just 33.3%, down from his career average of 41.6 percent, but he’s not giving up more flyballs – instead, those grounders have turned into screaming line drives. Batters are making contact with 84.4 percent of the pitches he throws, and his swinging strike rate is half of what it was in his prime.

A couple-few days before that, our full-time employee wrote of Harden, under the heading “Rich Harden is not right”:

In two starts last week, Harden lasted just 9 2/3 innings, walked nine guys, hit two more, and threw a wild pitch. Command has never been his forte, but he’s now running a 9.45 BB/9 on the season. His fastball averaged just 90.6 MPH, and only 41 percent of his pitches were in the strike zone.

This version of Harden doesn’t appear to have good enough stuff to challenge hitters, and his already poor command just compounds the problem.

It’s true: Harden’s velocity is down — and not just the tiniest bit, as this graph proves incontrovertibly:

The right-most green dots are Harden’s velo from this season. Between Pitchf/x and BIS, it appears as though he’s down about 2 mph from his normal. No, that doesn’t necessarily spell disaster; some pitchers are definitely able to function at lower speeds. But a drop in velocity could also be a sign of injury or fatigue. In any case, it’s not ideal.

On the whole, this game should serve as an opportunity to gather information about two talented pitchers and their respective struggles.

Leaders of Tomorrow
You probably haven’t heard of him, on account of he’s a wicked underground prospect, but a little guy by the name of Justin Smoak was recently promoted from Triple-A Oklahoma City. Baseball America calls his power potential “plus-plus.” Marc Hulet writes that “he projects to be an above-average regular.” Leonard Maltin calls Smoak “a delightful romp” and adds that “if you see one prospect all spring, you should see Justin Smoak.”

Weird, right? That Leonard Maltin would say that about Texas Rangers prospect Justin Smoak?

Smoak is projected by CHONE to bat .244/.347/.371 at the Major League level this season, a line that reflects both his advanced plate discipline and underwhelming power numbers to date (including just 10 home runs in 464 minor league PAs last year). Still, scouts l-o-v-e him, and the K:BB ratios are favorable.

Broadcasts
The game will be broadcast by Comcast SportsNet in Chicago and Fox Sports Southwest in Metro Dallas. While I recognize that some people are amendable to the spirited commentary of Ken “The Hawk” Harrelson, I don’t count myself among this particular demographic. That said, if you’ve never heard the Hawk at work, you should watch the CSN broadcast for at least a couple of innings — if only to understand what the fuss is about.

FSSW broadcaster Josh Lewin, on the other hand, appears to be one of the good guys. Just as the season opened its doors to us, Lewin wrote an open letter to the fellers of Lone Star Ball. His basic point? “I’m sympathetic to the nerds, but I gots to make that paper.”

Yes, that’s 100%, entirely a direct quote.

If I Had My Druthers
• Colby Lewis would just get it over with, and admit to everyone that he’s the Son of Man.
• Colby Lewis would soar like an eagle — into my heart.
• Julio Borbon would find his way back from the unfortunate 11:1 K:BB with which he’s started the season — like, by drinking a tincture crafted by Colby Lewis, for example.

Question: What does Chris Coghlan have in common with Juan Pierre?

Answer: Those are the only two qualified batters with a .000 ISO.

Seeing Pierre’s name associated with no extra base hits is probably not too surprising. Through 80 plate appearances, Pierre’s line is .222/.282/.222. His career ISO is .071 and his projected ISO is .063 (rest of the season version). Last night, he went 0-4 which lowers those totals. Coghlan is unexpected though. Thanks to continuing the power outage through last night, he set a new career high for consecutive games with at least one plate appearance and zero extra base hits (his previous high was 17).

Coghlan’s really been all kinds of awful to date. His wOBA was .182, with a .203 OBP and (obviously) no home runs. He’s not exactly a big bopper, but he did slam nine homers and 37 doubles/triples in his rookie season. Coghlan’s batting average on balls in play is pretty miserable too, but he’s hitting more than half of his batted balls on the ground which doesn’t translate to extra bases often.

Everyone is dying to know just how this streak of power ineptitude matches up with the rest of Pierre’s career. As it turns out, his career high is 46 games, which took place in 2000 as a member of the Colorado Rockies. He also abstained for 30 games in 2002 (again, Rockies) and more than 20 games four other times with three of those coming as a Dodger.

Without a doubt, the most amazing Pierre streak stretched from September of 2008 almost into May of 2009. He went 12 games without an extra base hit and still managed a line of .350/.381/.350. That’s the definition of being a slash and dash hitter.

It’s early, but some teams in the American League seriously need to take a hard look at their guys manning the DH position. No less than five teams, the White Sox, Indians, Athletics, Red Sox and Mariners have DHs that have amassed a wOBA that ranks below the combined wOBAs that two National League teams have received from their pitchers!

Houston pitchers have a collective .305 wOBA and the Diamondbacks are second in the NL with a .289 wOBA at the plate from their hurlers. The Padres are in third at .261 and the Rockies in fourth at .249, which both still manage to rank ahead of the Red Sox (.248) and the Mariners.

The Mariners deserve special scorn for their below pathetic .210 wOBA from Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Sweeney. That scornful figure would rank 9th amongst National League pitchers. The Mariners have had a DH combo that would be in the bottom half of pitchers.

It’s not quite as bad, but it’s worth pointing out the awful rates put up by the Yankees (.234) and Rangers (.240) at first base as well. First base at least is an actual defensive position, but it is the lowliest of them, and teams really need to get an offensive powerhouse there.

The Yankees will certainly be fine with Mark Teixeira. Will Justin Smoak be the savior for the Rangers at the position and will Chris Davis get another shot? Time will tell.

.356/.418/.661 looks like a pretty good batting line doesn’t it? Well, I mean it is a really good line. That is, unless you are a pitcher and that’s the batting line for hitters against you. It’s even worse if you are a collection of pitchers and that’s the combined batting line of hitters facing you in the 9th inning. That’s exactly what the Texas Rangers have faced coming into today in 2010.

Yeah, opponents batting line is a mediocre way to evaluate individual pitchers. I used it just to offer up a feel for how much offense has been produced against the Rangers’ during that almost always crucial inning.

The lion’s share of time in that frame has been taken up by Frank Francisco to begin the season and after he faltered in tremendous fashion, Neftali Feliz was elevated to the closer’s role, but he has been ignominous as well. Francisco faced 28 batters and yielded three extra-base hits, four walks and punched out five. Feliz has faced 22 so far and given up four extra-base hits, but has just one walk allowed to the same five strikeouts.

With four blown saves and just three actual saves, the Rangers are currently one of just seven teams suffering more blown opportunities than converted. Again, as poor of a statistic as saves are for evaluating individual pitchers; on a team-level, they can illustrate the general level of frustration that a fanbase might be currently having with its team’s relievers. Faced with a division projected to be tight, Ranger fans might be boiling already, well ahead of the Texas summer heat.

I’m a little late on this, but regardless of timeliness, Kevin Goldstein did some reporting on Bryce Harper last week. Goldstein talked to a few scouts and … well; the reviews on Harper’s intangible qualities – which are wholly tangible when they need to be – are less than stellar. I don’t care to attempt and judge Harper or talk about what these opinions mean to his future. He’s a teenager with enough strength to hit baseballs 500 feet and wear David DeJesus on a chain around his neck. He’s also been on the cover of Sports Illustrated and on the lips (and fingertips) of every baseball draft analyst since last year. Excuse me for expecting nothing less than a sense of self pride.

What I do want to bring up, though, is something I ranted about recently elsewhere. Think about the definitive Babe Ruth tale. It’s the called shot, right? Everyone knows about Ruth’s called shot. It’s a signature moment and a piece of Americana folklore. There are many conflicting tales on what exactly took place on that day. Some say Ruth called his shot, others say he didn’t. Some say Ruth spent the day trading taunts with the Chicago Cubs’ dugout, others say he was just sticking up for a former teammate who wasn’t receiving his post-season share. A lot of hearsay. A lot of noise.

For the most part though, people seem to buy into the called shot being real. Perhaps we just want it to be real. But, isn’t calling a shot pretty selfish? One of the best players in baseball today can’t even trot across the back of the mound without it becoming a hot topic on every sports site, radio show, and television show for a week steady, imagine Ruth living in today’s world and pointing towards center. Now imagine him doing it during the World Series.

This isn’t supposed to be some scathing commentary on how we’ve come to expect a different set of standards from our athletes. It’s not even a commentary on Babe Ruth’s antics. It’s just odd and maybe a teeny bit hypocritical to recite that Ruth story with such vigor while treating Harper like a leper. It shows that if you hit a baseball far enough and well enough, then you can get away with anything on the field. And really, isn’t that probably the root of Harper’s issues already?

Today the Boston Herald and Deadspin homed in on Jason Bay’s 13-run change in his 2009 UZR. John Tomase of the Boston Herald writes that “UZR owes Jason Bay an apology” and Deadspin’s Barry Petchesky writes that “it’s foolish to jump aboard the Sabermetrics bandwagon.”

John Tomase goes on to say:

… Ultimate Zone Rating, which was treated as Gospel this winter during all the discussions of defense around these parts.

Let’s just say that it’s not UZR’s fault that it’s been treated like gospel, and anyone who actually reads FanGraphs should know that we definitely don’t treat single-season UZR like gospel either. Dave Cameron addressed “not liking or agreeing” with UZR last year in his Bay vs Cameron article and Jack Moore consulted multiple defensive metrics in his contract analysis of the Jason Bay signing.

Even with the UZR improvements, Bay is still listed as -35 runs below average since 2007. Some will point to his poor 2007 as the result of still recovering from knee surgery, but his problems in the outfield continued to plague him in 2008 between playing in PNC and Fenway.

All the other defensive metrics seem to agree that he has been pretty sub-par since 2007 as well. John Dewan’s +/- has him at -18 runs. Sean Smith’s Total Zone has him at -47 runs and Brian Cartwright’s WOWY based system likes him the best at -8.2 (having him at +9 in 2009).

Now there’s no doubt that, in 2009, it seems most systems have him somewhere around average, which is a fairly large departure from his 2007 and 2008 metrics, but let’s not forget that the fans themselves seemed to think Bay was below average in 2009. Tom Tango runs the Fans Scouting Report each year and they rated Bay a 2.69 on a scale of 1-5, which placed him 48th of the 71 rated left fielders.

Do we need to average out every single defensive system for each player to get a decent picture of his defensive abilities? Probably not. But when in doubt (like some of you were with Jason Bay), you can always get a second opinion, and a third opinion. Right here on FanGraphs we now carry two separate defensive systems (UZR and John Dewan’s Defensive Runs Saved) for all players.

Baseball statistics can be a valuable tool in your toolbox when analyzing a player. Often times they can be one of the most useful tools in your toolbox, but there’s really no reason to throw that tool away completely, just as you wouldn’t throw away scouting information. And as I’ve said before, a lot of times the metrics you use actually do contain “scouting” information.

New information and better models are coming out all the time and this is not unique to baseball. Analysts use the information that’s available to them and in light of new information, there’s a chance that the previous analysis might be wrong.

But the alternative as Barry Petchesky wrote is that “it’s foolish to jump aboard the Sabermetrics bandwagon.” Suppose we go back to the days of batting average and fielding percentage; to how many players would batting average or fielding percentage “owe an apology”?

According to the Rockies official website, the team will be demoting opening day catcher Chris Iannetta and calling up catcher Paul Phillips. The likely reason for the demotion is Iannetta’s poor start – in 8 games and 34 PAs, Iannetta has posted a .133/.235/.333 line. His 36 wRC+ is among the bottom 16% of players with at least 30 PAs. Miguel Olivo has taken over the starting catcher role in Colorado, thanks to a .311/.340/.667, 161 wRC+ line in 47 plate appearances.

This is just another exercise in the dangers of using small sample sizes to evaluate player performances. Miguel Olivo is showing all of the problem signs that have resulted in a .279 career on base percentage and an 82 career wRC+. Olivo’s BB% and K% of 4.3 and 35.6 respectively are right in line with his career marks, and his ridiculous .375 BABIP and 38.5% HR/FB rate are the only things keeping his line afloat. There’s no way that he sustains this kind of production, and ZiPS suggest we can expect him to produce at his typical .287 OBP level for the rest of the season.

Iannetta, on the other hand, has managed to exhibit both power and discipline despite his major slump on balls in play. He still has an 11.8% walk rate, slightly above average, and his 18.2% HR/FB rate is right in line with his career numbers. As a player who hits a ton of fly balls, Iannetta is going to have a lower BABIP than most players – his career mark of .273 is 27 points below league average – but still, a .118 mark is completely unsustainable, and given time to work itself out, Iannetta would start hitting at his normal levels.

It shouldn’t take long for Iannetta to make it clear that he belongs in the major league and for Olivo to demonstrate that he belongs on the bench. Iannetta should especially thrive at Colorado Springs, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in professional baseball. When Iannetta comes back and starts put up numbers like his career .349 wOBA, people will likely claim that the minor league stint helped him get his head right. In reality, it will simply be hits falling in for Iannetta where they weren’t before.

If you’ve been following the club over the past week, you’re clearly not from Toronto (ba-dum-bum)… Seriously, though, you knew something was going to break in Toronto. And it was clearly going to occur in the bullpen.

Bullpen Bleeding
April 26: 6 IP – 10 H – 6 R
April 25: 2 IP – 5 H – 4 R
April 24: 1 IP – 5 H – 7 R

Seventeen runs in eight innings will definitely get someone’s attention – and not for a pat on the head. Toronto designated Merkin Valdez for assignment, and optioned Jeremy Accardo to triple-A. The funny thing is that neither of those pitchers really deserved their fate.

Valdez has been used just twice this season, and while he has hardly been effective, who can blame him? There is no way a pitcher can have sharp command when he’s pitched so irregularly (He didn’t pitch for the first time until April 14, and then sat again until the 25th). Accardo also got behind the 8-ball by not getting into a game until April 12. He was then used three times in five days and then sat for another eight days without pitching.

Shawn Camp and Kevin Gregg have been the Jays’ best pitchers. Camp, though was touched up last night. Scott Downs has been ineffective over his last five appearances, with six runs allowed over 3.2 innings. Jason Frasor, who opened the year as the club’s closer, has allowed six runs over his last four appearances (3.1 innings). Casey Janssen has pitched twice in three days and has given up six runs in 1.2 innings.

To take the place of Accardo and Valdez, Toronto has promoted and minor league veteran Rommie Lewis, a long-time Baltimore farmhand in his second season with the Jays organization, and Josh Roenicke, who was obtained last season in the Scott Rolen trade. Roenicke, 27, has yet to allow an earned run this season in triple-A. He’s allowed just four hits and one walk in 8.2 innings of work. The fly-ball pitcher has struck out eight batters. Command issues have haunted him in his brief MLB career.

Lewis, also 27, is receiving his first taste of MLB action and was Las Vegas’ second best reliever, so it’s nice to see the club rewarding dedication and success. The left-hander allowed 10 hits (.400 BABIP) in 7.2 innings but struck out seven batters and has a 75.1% ground-ball rate. He has a low-90s fastball and slider.

There are a few other names currently in double-A that might surface in the Toronto bullpen later this season if they keep throwing well – especially if Scott Downs and Jason Frasor can improve their values enough to bring in a B-level prospect each at the trade deadline.

Trystan Magnuson is 6’8” and has a history of producing good ground-ball numbers. He’s also improved his control with a switch from starting to relieving. He’s struck out 11 batters, with just one walk, in 10.2 innings. Magnuson will turn 25 shortly and was drafted as a fifth-year college senior in 2007. Tim Collins, 20 years old and a full foot shorter than his teammate, will look to challenge Reds reliever Danny Herrera for smallest player in the Majors. The Jays lefty has a low-90s fastball and has yet to allow a run this season. He’s given up just two hits and struck out 14 in 8.0 innings.

Danny Farquhar, 23, comes at hitters with multiple arm angles and can throw in the low-to-mid 90s from a sidearm slot. Control has been an issue for him in the past. He currently has seven Ks in 7.0 innings of work. Some other double-A names to keep in mind for future bullpen help include Luis Perez, Randy Boone, and Zach Stewart.