Whatever else might be written about the 2010 San Francisco Giants, they have assembled an excellent pitching staff. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez are all tremendous young pitchers, and, yes, good ol’ Barry Zito is a pretty good #4 pitcher. Once you leave the contract jokes aside, that is, and focus on his numbers, yeah, a lot of teams would be thrilled to have a guy with Zito’s projected talent at the back of their rotation. And so far this year, he looks much better than that, with a 1.86 ERA and a 2.88 FIP. Once again, I won’t give you the small sample size lecture that I’m sure you all know by heart at this point. It still applies. But is there anything in the numbers (I’ll leave the Pitch F/X stuff to someone smart) to indicate that Zito has changed something in his approach in his first three starts such that we migth see a turnaround for him in 2010? After all, after projecting him for a 4.60 FIP before the season, as of now, ZiPS rest-of-seasonn has him at 4.35.

So far this season, Zito’s walk rate is only 2.33 per nine innings, and he hasn’t given up a home run yet. While his BABIP is an unsustainable .209, he is managing to hold hitters to a mere 15.5% line drive rate. These are the primary reasons he has a 2.73 tERA, right in line with his tremendous ERA and FIP.

Other numbers are less impressive. After having a better strikeout rate in 2009 than in any other previous season, in 2010, he’s only striking out a Horacio Ramirez-esque 4.19 batters every nine innings. I’m personally agnostic regarding how much control pitchers have on line drives rates (if they do, I think it’s much less than with regard to groundball rates, strikeouts, walks, etc.), but even if you think Zito has found something new in that regard, most of those former line drives have turned into flyballs — up to about 46% this year from Zito, as opposed to his usual rate of about 40%. Zito doesn’t get that many groundballs — he’s at about his usual rate of 38% at the moment. But as for the flyballs… yes, so far he’s been very lucky to not give up any home runs, which is why his xFIP is 4.79 so far this season. While his pitch type values (by count) reflect the success he’s had in preventing runs so far this season, and his pitch typesshow a slight decrease in sliders in favor of his 86 mph “heater,” his plate discipline numbers reflect his low strikeout totals — getting fewer swings on pitches outside the strike zone, allowing more contact in general, and a lower swinging strike percentage.

None of this is to say that Zito is actually worse than expected, or that he can’t be helpful. Nor do I intend to start a debate about the relative value of FIP, xFIP, and tERA — all three are useful. All I wanted to examine in this post is whether Zito’s hot start might be attributed to some changes in his pitching this season. From what I can see in the numbers, the answer is “no.”

Small sample sizes are generally a bad thing, but they can also be fun. With April starting to wind down, let’s have a look at some interesting team offensive statistics in the Majors so far this year.

But we know it’s not going to last for these guys (2010 AVG | 2010 BABIP | Career AVG):
Scott Podsednik: .449 | .512 | .279
Jose Guillen: .377 | .370 | .273
Jason Kendall: .352 | .388 | .290

You know you’re in trouble when Andruw Jones (.270) is your leading hitter, followed by Alex Rios (.250). Sophomore Gordon Beckham should pick up his game soon, and a speedster like Juan Pierre is not going to have a .228 BABIP for long, and the Ks aren’t hurting him (5.0 K%). Seriously, though… Andruw Jones. Have you seen him lately? It looks like he left half of himself at home this season… which has resulted in a much quicker bat.

Vernon Wells accounts for seven of those for the Jays, followed by free agent steal Alex Gonzalez. Overbay has the biggest goose egg with zero in 59 at-bats (along with a .119 average and ugly batting stance/swing)… guess the Jays should have done that Overbay-for-Chris Snyder trade that they reportedly backed out on. For St. Louis, the usual suspects like Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols are hitting jacks, but it’s also nice to see sophomore Colby Rasmus tapping into his raw power.

Jason Michaels, who has all of 14 at-bats, is leading the Astros club with two jacks. Pedro Feliz (12 in ’09) and Carlos Lee (26 in ’09) have yet to hit home runs. Only three Mariners’ hitters have homers: Casey Kotchman (3), Milton Bradley (2), and Rob Johnson (1). The swift-fielding Franklin Gutierrez is hitting .393 but he’s homer-less in 67 PAs. He knocked out 18 homers last season. Jose Lopez (25 dingers in ’09) is also without a homer in 68 PAs.

For what it’s worth, the Dodgers club has the highest BABIP in the Majors at .346 so it’s taking full advantage of its success with balls in play. The Brewers team is having success with scoring runs even with Prince Fielder off to another slow start in the power department.

There are three hitters in the Majors that have walked as much or more than the entire Astros team (David Wright, Daric Barton, and Nick Johnson). Michael Bourn and Jeff Keppinger account for 12 of the team’s walks (six apiece). Feliz hasn’t walked in 56 plate appearances, Tommy Manzella has a goose egg in 40, and Hunter Pence has one in 57. Seriously, that’s pathetic. As for the Twins, Justin Morneau (15), Denard Span (13), Jason Kubel (10), and Joe Mauer (10) are all in double-digits. Span figures to benefit from the increased focus with on-base percentage given that it should provide him with more stolen base opportunities.

Does Chicago have the slowest team in the Majors? Paul Konerko… A.J. Pierzynski… Carlos Quentin… are definitely guilty of slow-footedness (Great, I sound like Carson), but the team also has Pierre, Alexei Ramirez, and Alex Rios. Some of this definitely smells like bad luck, especially when you add in the K-rate, which is good news for the much-maligned Chicago fan base. Toronto’s motto: Live by the long ball, die by the long ball (swing).

Again, I reiterate: Toronto’s motto: Live by the long ball, die by the long ball (swing). Man, it’s annoying watching the majority of Toronto’s hitters bat. Pull. Pull. Pull. It’s like being at a tug-of-war contest. I’ll give you the scouting report on Toronto: Pitch them low and away consistently and you’ll win the game.

Jimmy Rollins accounts for two-thirds of the Phillies’ steals, but he’s currently on the DL so don’t expect to see much thievery in Philadelphia for the next little while. Why did Shane Victorino suddenly stop running…? I mean, speed is his game. The O’s best stolen base threat (Brian Roberts) is also dealing with injuries. Sure, the Texas club still has its sluggers, but Nelson Cruz leads the team with seven homers and he’s balanced that out with five steals. He should be a 30-20 guy this season, with an outside shot for 30-30 if he’s motivated. Elvis Andrus also has five steals (and what a steal he’s been from Atlanta). Julio Borbon has four swipes even though he’s barely getting on base (.163 OBP).

A couple of lessons for the day:
1. Houston is really frickin’ bad with the stick.
2. Toronto batters swing for the fences and have no idea what “small ball” or “strategy” means.
3. The Rangers are no longer one-dimensional (Here that Toronto?).
4. The Twins’ free-swinging reputation is actually wrong (check out the ’09 totals, too).
5. Sample sample sizes can be fun if used properly and in the presence of an adult.

The Rays have just ensured that their 3-4 combination of Ben Zobrist and Evan Longoria will spend many more years together. We learned this morning that the Rays would announce an extension for their multi-position star, a three-year guaranteed deal. The deal will also include two team options for Zobrist’s first two years of free agency. While the exact financial details aren’t known as I write this, R.J. Anderson has the right idea: “Long-term deals in pre-arb are like 99% guaranteed to look good for the team.”

This one looks good right from the start. The Rays have hedged their own risk by turning Zobrist’s first two years of free agency into team options. If Zobrist continues to perform near the level he did in 2009 — or even his 2008 level — the Rays can get up to two more years of that production at a discounted rate. If he doesn’t live up to those standards, the Rays can let him go at little cost to the organization. The only way the Rays lose is if Zobrist’s production declines significantly over the next three years. That, however, does not appear likely.

Zobrist might have earned a poor reputation, at least among frequent spectators, in 2006 and 2007, when he looked like a light-hitting utility player. He didn’t walk much, he didn’t hit for power, and even his batting average looked horrible. Still, in the minors he did a fine job. In 2006, he spent most of his year destroying Texas League pitching, posting a .410 wOBA for Houston’s AA squad. After the Astros sent him to Tampa Bay in the Aubrey Huff deal, Zobrist struggled at bit at AAA before earning a call-up in August.

Again, in 2007, Zobrist performed well in the minors, posting a .391 wOBA in the AAA International League, mostly on the strength of his .403 OBP. Still, the results in the majors were discouraging, especially his walk rate. Major league pitchers, it seemed, just didn’t want to walk a guy with an ISO of .052. In 2008, however, we saw some improvement from Zobrist. After utterly demolishing AAA, a .464 wOBA to start the season, Zobrist came up in late June and, other than a low BA, hit pretty well, a .364 wOBA in 227 PA. Most encouragingly, his walk rate rose from 5.1 and 2.9 percent during his 2006 and 2007 stints, to 11 percent in 2008.

Everything came together in 2009. Zobrist’s .408 wOBA ranked third among AL hitters, trailing just Joe Mauer and Kevin Youkilis. Even better, he did it while playing excellent defense at not only second base, but also in the outfield. It’s no wonder, then, that he led the AL in WAR at 8.3. Only Franklin Gutierrez posted a better fielding component. His flexibility adds another bonus, in that manager Joe Maddon can play the hot hand wherever he fits, moving Zobrist to any spot on the diamond. Except catcher, of course. If Zobrist could catch, well, he might solve one of the Rays’ few issues.

This year Zobrist is off to a slow start, but it sounds like just that. Once his walk rate comes back up and his strikeout rate falls back to normal levels, the rest of his game should fall into line. That could be a scary prospect for the American League. The Rays already lead the league in runs per game, 5.81, and a hot Zobrist will only make them better. Much to the joy of the Rays faithful, they’ll get to watch him for what will probably be the next five years. At some point during that span it’s possible that he and Longoria represent the best 3-4 combination in the game, while costing less than one component of the Yankees’ 3-4. That’s how a good small market club must operate. The Rays have struck again.

This isn’t going to come as stunning news to anyone who has watched him pitch, but Jake Peavy just isn’t right. After last night’s implosion, he has allowed 19 runs in 22 innings, and it’s not bad luck. He’s just pitching terribly.

He’s walked as many batters (15) as he’s struck out. His groundball rate is just 33.3%, down from his career average of 41.6 percent, but he’s not giving up more flyballs – instead, those grounders have turned into screaming line drives. Batters are making contact with 84.4 percent of the pitches he throws, and his swinging strike rate is half of what it was in his prime.

Add it all up, and you get a 5.94 xFIP, which is below replacement level. Through four trips to the mound, Peavy has pitched worse than you’d expect from waiver bait.

Unless he’s hurt (a distinct possibility, given his history), he’ll improve. Even with the transition to the American League and having to pitch in a park that favors hitters for the first time in his career, the changes in context aren’t enough to take him from good pitcher to complete bum. But how optimistic can White Sox fans be about their pseudo-ace?

His pre-season ZIPS had him posting a 3.86 FIP, and the updated rest-of-season ZIPS (which takes into account his first four games of 2010) has him projected for a 3.87 FIP. Clearly, the projection systems aren’t going to panic over a 22 inning sample. However, ZIPS doesn’t know that Peavy’s lost a couple of MPH off his fastball over the last few years or that he’s battled elbow problems the last few years.

It’s not time to panic, but there is certainly cause for concern. Command has been the hallmark of Peavy’s success in the big leagues, and a sudden inability to throw strikes can often be a sign of a more serious problem.

Given all the extra things we know, I’d take the over on that 3.87 rest of season FIP. Chicago fans should be concerned.

Ivan Rodriguez has been a staple in the major leagues since 1991, appearing in at least 88 games in every year of his career. However, after 5 straight seasons of below average hitting finally culminating in a .287 wOBA between Houston and Texas last season, it seemed like Pudge’s productive days were over. CHONE, ZiPS, and the fans all projected Rodriguez for a .290 or lower wOBA once again in 2010, and the two year, $6 million contract was trashed by many analysts.

Pudge has certainly shown signs of life in 2010. His 2-4 night against Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies on Thursday raised his 2010 line to .449/.472/.592. ZiPS has updated its rest of season projection up to .302 after this torrid start, and the .320 overall season projected wOBA would be his highest since 2006 with Detroit.

However, Pudge has managed to put together this line despite hitting zero home runs and only walking three times in 49 plate appearances – that’s why the rest of season projection is still well below average despite the hot start. Soon, the hits will stop dropping in and Rodriguez’s BABIP will regress toward his career average of .323 – and probably lower, given his advanced age. Still, the fact that Pudge has gotten out to such a fast start does signify that there is still some pop in his bat and that aging hasn’t yet taken a strangle hold over his baseball skills.

Given how difficult catcher is to play, a .302 wOBA could still lead to a decently productive season, as long as Rodriguez can still play some defense. According to our new measure of catching defense, there is no reason to believe that he can’t – since 2005, he’s rated at +22 by our system and was +4 last year. He certainly appears to be able to limit the stolen base, and given his history, I have no questions about his game calling abilities.

Although I still question giving Rodriguez $6 million guaranteed over two years of a waning career, he has shown that he’s not dead yet. Perhaps there’s just enough left in the tank for him to effectively be Washington’s bridge to Bryce Harper.

This is your conscience speaking. If you have plans, cancel them: there’re like a hundred sweet baseball games this weekend.

[Note: All minor league numbers are courtesy of StatCorner. HR/BIA = Home Run per Ball in Air. MLB average for starters is 6.5%. MiLB average is I-don’t-know-what.]

Toronto at Tampa Bay | Friday, April 23 | 7:10 pm ET
Jays: Brett Cecil (L)
11.0 IP, 9.00 K/9, 1.64 BB/9, .394 BABIP, 39.4% GB, 0.0% HR/BIA, 1.75 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: 4.49 (FAN) 4.67 (CHONE) 4.77 (ZiPS)

Rays: Matt Garza (R)
24.0 IP, 7.13 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, .211 BABIP, 39.3% GB, 4.0% HR/FB, 3.87 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.87 (FAN) 4.09 (CHONE) 4.10 (ZiPS)

This’ll be Cecil’s first MLB start of the year after having been recalled earlier in the week from Triple-A Las Vegas for the injured Brian Tallet. Cecil has some impressive seasons on his minor league resume — seasons where he struck people out, didn’t walk them, and got groundballs. That’s what we in the industry call a “triple threat.”

One note about Garza: I’m just not that in to him. Is that okay to write? Looking at his Pitchf/x numbers now, I see he’s got some wiggle on his slidepiece. He always seemed more of a chucker to me. On the other hand, I’m a little bit of an idiot.

If I had my druthers, Little Mike McCoy would start at second tonight. And John Buck would hit 16 home runs. One or the other.

Saint Louis at San Francisco | Friday, April 23 | 10:15 pm ET
Cards: Jaime Garcia (L)
13.0 IP, 6.92 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, .158 BABIP, 69.7% GB, 0.0% HR/FB, 3.38 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 4.69 (CHONE) 4.59 (ZiPS)

Gigantes: Tim Lincecum (R)
20.0 IP, 10.80 K/9, 1.35 BB/9, .270 BABIP, 49.0% GB, 5.9% HR/FB, 2.24 xFIP
Projected FIP: 2.48 (FAN) 2.72 (CHONE) 2.68 (ZiPS)

Lincecum’s starts are basically the pornography of the baseball nerd world — or, at least that’s how it felt during his most recent game, last Saturday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. It got to the point in that start — during the fourth and fifth innings, especially — where he could’ve told whichever Dodger was batting that he was about to throw his change-up, and it wouldn’t’ve mattered. Here’s how those innings went down:

Bottom 4th: LA Dodgers
– M. Kemp struck out swinging
– G. Anderson struck out swinging
– R. Belliard flied out to shallow right

Bottom 5th: LA Dodgers
– B. DeWitt singled to shallow center
– A.J. Ellis walked, B. DeWitt to second
– C. Blake hit for C. Monasterios
– C. Blake struck out swinging
– J. Carroll struck out swinging
– J. Loney grounded out to second

There are four swinging strikeouts there, and three of them (Kemp, Anderson, Carroll) came on the change. Overall, he registered eight swing-and-misses on the pitch while throwing it only 20 times. That’s 40 percent. That’s also nutso. If and when Lincecum cuts his hair, I’ll jump real hard on his bandwagon.

Of course, none of this is to overshadow what Cardinal Jaime Garcia has done over his first two starts. This author was surprised to see the frenzied heights Garcia’s groundball rate has reached over the lefty’s first two starts. Turns out, it’s not that crazy. In 2007, over 103.1 innings with Double-A Springfield, Garcia recorded a 56% GB rate. A year later, in Triple-A Memphis, he recorded a 55% GB rate in 71 innings. If he records anything like a decent strikeout-to-walk split, he’s gonna be be somebody.

If I had my druthers, Allen Craig of St. Louis and Andres Torres of San Francisco would both play tonight. Those guys are my dogggz. Yeah, that’s right: three Gs and a Z.

Fresno at Portland | Saturday, April 24 | 10:05 pm ET
Grizzlies: Madison Bumgarner (L)
13.0 IP, 6.23 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, .417 BABIP, 42.3% GB, 14.3% HR/BIA, 6.51 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: 3.92 (FAN) 4.99 (CHONE) 4.03 (ZiPS)

Beavers: Josh Geer (R)
18.0 IP, 4.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, .271 BABIP, 44.3% GB, 6.5% HR/BIA, 4.48 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 4.97 (CHONE) 5.41 (ZiPS)

You’ve undoubtedly heard of Giants prospect Madison Bumgarner. If not, here’s his story in a nutshell: first, he was a sweet prospect; then, he lost like 6 MPH on his fastball; then, people were like, “OMG” and “WTF?” Anyway, he’s still only 20 and still the number two prospect on both Baseball America’s and also our own Marc Hulet’s respective prospect lists for the Giants.

The man who’s number one on each of those lists is Fresno catcher Buster Posey. A couple notes on Posey. First, he’s hitting the turkey stuffing outta the ball right now in the PCL — to the tune of .346/.443/.462 in 61 PAs. Second, Baseball America invokes the name Joe Mauer when attempting to describe the sort of player Posey is/might one day be. Third, his real name is actually Gerald Demp Posey. Neither you nor I am shocked to hear that he’s from Georgia.

If I had my druthers, Matt Antonelli — the pride of Peabody, MA — would magically return from an injury to his hamate bone (which is very clearly not even the name of a real human bone). I’d settle for a donger off the bat of Lance Zawadzki, though.

For more on the Portland Beavers and their glistening cast of characters, do consider pointing your browser to this season preview-y type thing.

Detroit at Texas | Sunday, April 25 | 3:05 pm ET
Tigers: Rick Porcello (R)
15.1 IP, 5.87 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, .398 BABIP, 57.4% GB, 5.6% HR/FB, 4.30 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.34 (FAN) 4.91 (CHONE) 5.13 (ZiPS)

Rangers: Colby Lewis (R)
17.1 IP, 9.35 K/9, 5.19 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 40.0% GB, 4.8% HR/FB, 4.68 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 3.99 (CHONE) 4.39 (ZiPS)

In case you didn’t notice, Colby Frigging Lewis is pitching this afternoon. Much like the great Cyclone roller coaster of Coney Island, Lewis’s early season exploits have been made of wood located in Brooklyn up and down. Impressive? The righty’s 11.4% swinging-strike rate (which would’ve placed him around the top of last year’s leaderboard in that category). Less impressive? That only about 42% of his pitches are finding the zone (while league average typically sits around 50%). Lewis’s project now is twofold: first, attack hitters more authoritatively; second, use the changepiece to control lefties.

Tonight also presents the opportunity to ogle Detroit’s pair of rookie starters, center fielder Austin Jackson and second baseman Scott Sizemore. The former has managed to slash .311/.373/.443 through his first 67 Major League PAs, although the 37.7% K rate and .500 (!) BABIP are screaming “regression to the mean” right in my ear. The latter, Sizemore, is batting a more modest .275/.362/.350. On the plus side, he’s the only Sizemore in the Majors not to’ve taken weird pictures of his naked body in a bathroom mirror.

Win some, lose some, is the message there.

Cleveland at Oakland | Sunday, April 25 | 4:05 pm ET
Indians: Justin Masterson (R)
15.0 IP, 12.00 K/9, 4.20 BB/9, .433 BABIP, 59.5% GB, 14.3% HR/FB, 2.80 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.34 (FAN) 4.91 (CHONE) 5.13 (ZiPS)

Athletics: Gio Gonzalez (L)
15.0 IP, 9.60 K/9, 6.00 BB/9, .347 BABIP, 45.0% GB, 8.3% HR/FB, 3.99 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.33 (FAN) 4.57 (CHONE) 4.88 (ZiPS)

Masterson enters the weekend with the third-lowest xFIP among qualified pitchers. “Qualified to do what?” maybe you’re asking. “To dominate right-handed batters,” is my answer. Another thing you might be saying is “Hey, Cistulli: small sample size much?” And to that I reply, “I’ve never heard those words in my life. The numbers tell me he’s the third best pitcher in the Majors, and I believe them without question.”

All-Joyer Alert! Three of baseball nerdom’s most exciting players — Adam Rosales, Ryan Sweeney, and Kurt Suzuki — take the field tonight. Watch as Rosales fills in admirably for the injured Mark Ellis! Watch as Sweeney attempts to defeat Colby Rasmus for the title of Most Baseball-y Looking Baseballer! Watch as Suzuki does everything just well enough not to be noticed at all!

Baseball has no time limit. Unlike every other major professional sport, the pacing and timing is wholly determined by the play on the field, particularly how quickly the starting pitchers work. This irritates some and tickles others who prefer the random allure of a four hour game on some mid-summer night Steve Trachsel pitched moderately well at times, but he was often as dormant on the mound as Mount Elephant.

Mark Buehrle is well-accomplished. He has a World Series ring. He’s thrown a no hitter. He even threw a perfect game that was preserved by one of the more miraculous catches in recent memory. There was that between-the-legs ball flip on opening day to take note of too. He’s also won 137 games in 305 starts while posting a career ERA around 3.8. Buehrle turned 31 in March, although his game is no more or less dependent on a blazing fastball as it was when he broke onto the scene in 2000.

Perhaps Buehrle is best-known for his fervent pace on the mound. To say Buehrle is a quick worker is careless. He pitches not like he has a plane or train to catch, but rather like he has a plane or train full of baseballs to pitch before he can leave. Last season, Buehrle’s 33 starts combined to total about 5,320 minutes – or 89 hours. That includes a monstrous three hour and 52 minute game against the Seattle Mariners in the middle of August that lasted 14 innings. Buerhle took part in 14 games that lasted 150 minutes or fewer and only six that lasted longer than 180. Joe West must adore him.

Buehrle works incredibly diligently. He doesn’t tromp around the mound or indulge himself in heavy meditation sessions between pitches. He fires, receives, and fires again. He pitches briskly like most do in The Show video games. Which is a double-edged sword. See, Buehrle makes the viewing experience enjoyable, but he also reduces the amount of time allowed to fully digest his abilities and performances.

He’ll top the 2,100 inning mark in one of his next two or three starts and he should break 2,200 innings for his career by season’s end. With the exception of his horrible 2006 season, Buehrle has posted a FIP no higher than 4.46 throughout his career, and 2005’s 5.27 figure undoubtedly skews his career 4.17 FIP higher than the rest of his career would suggest.

During the opening day chat, Dave Cameron suggested Buehrle is on his way towards the Hall of Fame and that position is hard to make an argument against. Rally’s WAR currently has Buehrle at 138th overall. Just behind a few Hall of Famers, like Dizzy Dean and Rich Gossage (he’s actually in a dead-heat with Roy Oswalt at this point). With a four win season Buehrle will jump to 106th all time. With another next season he’ll be around 82nd (or where Roy Halladay and Jamie Moyer sit right now). With yet another, Buerhle enters a stretch where seemingly every other pitcher listed is in the Hall of Fame.

45 of the 75 pitchers with at least 50 WAR are Hall of Famers, and others – like Roger Clemens, like Greg Maddux, like Randy Johnson, like Pedro Martinez, perhaps Mike Mussina and Bert Blyleven, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, and John Smoltz – could be in the Hall by the time Buehrle calls it a day too. Making that tally something like 54 of 75 – or nearly three-fourths.

Sportswriters who are members of the BBWAA will probably not be using WAR while filling out their ballots, but by factoring in memorable moments and market size, Buehrle’s odds seemingly rise. Of course, this could all fall by the wayside if Buehrle gets injured. Or if he decides that enough is enough. Or if he becomes ineffective. Or whatever.

I do hope he makes it to Cooperstown one day, though. And I hope his induction speech is the longest in recent memory. He’s saved enough time to make up for it.

Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury are now both on the disabled list, even though both were out for a few days before the Red Sox made the official decision. Jacoby was hitting decent with a line of 0.333/0.333/0.467 while Mike was not fairing as well with a line of 0.233/0.361/0.333. The Red Sox were 3-3 while they had both players on the team, but then have gone 3-7 since. The offense has gone from scoring 5.5 to 3.1 runs per game. The loss of these two can’t be the only reasons for the drop, but it for sure isn’t helping.

To take their roster positions, the Red Sox have brought up Josh Reddick and Darnell McDonald. The team also had Bill Hall and Jeremy Hermida on the team already to field the outfield. Since the two starters have gone down, all four of these players have started in the outfield at sometime, but they do not measure up to the players they replaced. Here are the 2010 projected wOBA from ZIPs for all 6 of the outfielders

Starters on DL
Mike Cameron
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.343

Replacements
Jeremy Hermida 0.340
Darnell McDonald 0.314
Bill Hall 0.299
Josh Reddick 0.299

Of the available replacements, Jeremy Hermida looks to be a decent offensive sub for the two on the DL. The other 3 aren’t close offensively.

On the defensive front, it is a little tough to come up with any great numbers for comparision since some of these players are from the minors and Bill Hall is completely out of position. I looked at several sources, the defensive numbers here at Frangraphs and Tom Tango’s Fan Scouting Report, and got the following information. Josh Reddick is probably the best of the 3 replacements and is probably a better defender than Ellsbury. Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald are similar and look to be average defenders. Jeremy Hermida is by far the worst of the 4.

What kind of options do the Red Sox have right now? They might just wait for both players to return and see if they get a competitive boost. Ellsbury is planning to return to the team immediately after his time is up on April 27th. A return timetable for Cameron has not been set yet.

I think the team needs to make a move for bat, preferably someone that can play outfield for now, but can move to DH once both Cameron and Ellsbury return. The DH position for the Red Sox has been hitting a pathetic 0.159/0.243/0.286 so far this season. They could make a move for a someone on a team not looking to make the playoffs like Michael Bourn on the Astros. Adam Dunn would be a nice fit, but with the Nationals only 2 games out, they will probably not ready to trade one of their top hitters yet.

The season is fairly young and no team is totally out of contention of yet. After losing two of their starting outfielders at the same time and not getting any production from the DH, the Red Sox are in a hole. In any other division, I don’t think it would be a problem, but they are in the AL East with the top 2 teams in the AL. They are currently 6 games behind Tampa and 5.5 games behind New York. Boston needs to start looking into options to get themselves back in the race or even just back to 0.500 before any chance to make the playoffs is completely gone.

Mitchell Boggs STL

With his next inning pitched, Boggs will record his 100th MLB inning. That should be an exciting, if ultimately irrelevant round number achievement. Boggs was previously a starter within the Cards’ system, but after 200 innings in Triple-A and a mediocre 1.78 SO/BB ratio, he was placed into the bullpen last season. Boggs made seven appearances, striking out 11 batters in 9 and two-thirds innings while walking eight. In 2010 he’s spent the entire season in the pen, and something expected is happening — well, besides his average fastball velocity increasing; to 95 from 92 MPH – he’s showing better control as a reliever than he did as a starter. He’s only walked three batters in seven innings, and while it’s far too early to say whether that’s going to be his ratio all season, we should expect an improvement on control simply from Boggs becoming a full-time reliever.

Jesse Chavez ATL

Few middle relievers received more attention last winter than Chavez. He began the off-season with the Pirates and was sent packing to the Rays in exchange for Akinori Iwamura. Weeks later, the Rays would turn around and trade him to the Braves for Rafael Soriano. Not too shabby of company for the guy with a career FIP over 4.5. Atlanta has used Chavez in low-leverage spots so far, and he’s responded strikingly well by posting 1.29 FIP in six innings with a 16.3% whiff rate. Obviously that kind of success is highly unlikely to sustain, still though, not a bad way to keep his name in the public consciousness.

The Diamondbacks’ Pen

It’s never a good sign when you have this many relievers with negative WPA this early in the season:

Chad Qualls -1.11
Blaine Boyer -0.74
Juan Gutierrez -0.66
Aaron Heilman -0.47

It might not come as a surprise that the D-Backs’ relief corps has the worst unit ERA and FIP in the league (7.21 and 5.98 respectively). There’s plenty of season left guys, save some of those blown leads for then too.

Carlos Monasterios LAD

Actually, there’s nothing in Monasterios’ performance worth pointing out. He’s just got a great name.

Earlier in the season Dave Cameron asked me what to make of Ben Sheets‘ release points. Sheets has two distinct release points: check it out. Dave wanted to know whether that was a real difference or some noise in the pitchf/x system. Release points are not directly measured by the pitchf/x system, but placed some constant distance away from the plate (the default is 50 feet) along the trajectory of the pitch. This means they are not perfect, but a pattern of such distinct clumps is usually a legitimate phenomenon and not just noise.

Sheets’ clumps were noted over at Athletics Nation where danmerqury suggested they were due to different arm angles (you see that with Jose Contreras where the different clumps of release points correspond to different arm angles). But in this case it is something else as Mike Fast offered great visual evidence (make sure to click through and see what Mike posted) that Sheets is shifting on the rubber based on the handedness of the batter. Here are Sheets’ release points this year color-coded by RHB v LHB.

So Sheets shifts to the catcher’s left (Sheets’ right) against LHBs. I think this allows him to keep his pitches away against LHBs even if they have the same movement and trajectory. Sheets throws the occasional changeup, but most of the time it is either his fastball or his curve (between the two they make up over 90% of his pitches). Here are the trajectories of four of his pitches from last night. A curve and fastball to Jorge Posada (batting lefty) and a curve and a fastball to Alex Rodriguez.

His two fastballs (in green) have about the same movement and trajectory, but because they are thrown from a different starting point they both end up away both end up away, at least partially because of how Sheets shifts over against Posada. Remember LHBs stand to the right of the zone and RHBs to the left because the image is from the catcher’s perspective. The two curves have slightly different movement (this is not consistent across his curves to RHBs and LHBs just happened with the two I choose), but I think the shifting also helps him keep his curves away to all batters.

Mike Fast noted Trevor Hoffman as another guy who shifts on the rubber based on batter handedness. Do you all know any other pitchers who do this?