Episode Thirty
In which the guest is a frigging wordsmith.
Headlines
Dan Moore: Drama King
Cardinals Nation: Don’t Say It (or Spray It)
Dan Moore: Probably Less Strange Than Fiction
… and other comfortable silences!
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Dan Moore, The Human One Act
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Roy Oswalt is having a nice season. He’s started nine games while averaging about seven innings per outing. For his efforts, he has a 3.28 xFIP and an even flashier ERA to show. All of which is noteworthy and praiseworthy, but the real reason attention is being paid to Oswalt has to do with his actions off the field. Earlier today, Oswalt requested a trade from the Houston Astros. The club he’s spent his entire career with and the club the has the 32-year-old under contract for a total of $15M this season, $16M next season, and holds a club option on Oswalt worth $16M as well.
If Oswalt’s talent were the only measure that mattered, the takers would be lined up out the door trying to land him. The problem is his contract. That’s a lot of money for a pitcher who hasn’t topped four wins in a season since Craig Biggio and Morgan Ensberg were still his teammates. Assuming that the new team would pay Oswalt about half of this year’s money and 100% of next season’s, plus the $2M buyout in favor of the club option, that’s more than $25M. And if the new team keeps Oswalt for 2012, then that number skyrockets to nearly $40M.
Simply put: Oswalt is being paid like he can still be expected to be one of the game’s elite pitchers and that’s simply not a safe bet. Moving that contract for a good return on his talent is going to be a chore for Ed Wade, although the San Diego Padres proved such a move is possible. Of the recent high-priced starting pitchers to be traded, only Jake Peavy’s current contract had more annual money remaining than Oswalt’s. The Padres even had the unfortunate break of Peavy missing most of the season and holding a no-trade clause. Somehow, they got the White Sox and him to agree to a deal, and thus ridded themselves of his three-year, $52M deal.
Scott Kazmir was owed nearly $34M over three years and the Rays didn’t receive an elite prospect in return for him last August. Cliff Lee only had a season and $9M remaining when the Indians (and then Phillies) traded him. Even Roy Halladay was owed less money ($15.75M) than Oswalt will make next season when the Blue Jays traded him to the Phillies this past winter. Those contracts look cost efficient when stacked next to Oswalt’s, and those were for two of the game’s absolute best arms.
It’s going to be an interesting and probably pun-filled few stretch leading to the trade deadline for Houston.
The Cleveland Indians placed CF Grady Sizemore on the disabled list on Thursday. Entering last season, Sizemore was a legitimate superstar. From 2005-2008, Sizemore compiled 25.5 wins above replacement, playing at an all-star level both in the field and at the plate.
The 2009 season was a struggle for Sizemore. He still managed a .343 wOBA – well above average for a center fielder – but that mark signified a drop in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Combined with a UZR which fell to -4.6 – the first below average defensive season of his career – Sizemore’s WAR fell to 1.9, by far a career low for a full season.
The struggles have only been amplified in 2010. Sizemore has yet to hit a home run in 140 plate appearances, and his batting average and on-base percentage have yet to return to 2008 levels. Now, it appears that we may have an explanation for Sizemore’s struggles, at least in the 2010 season, as the deep bone bruise on his left knee that has sent him to the disabled list may require surgery to fix.
Sizemore’s 2009 season and 2007 season compare favorably. Both seasons saw Sizemore homer on roughly 11% of fly balls. Sizemore walked slightly more often (13.5% to 11.9%) in 2007, but he also struck out more (24.7% to 21.1%). However, Sizemore posted a 132 wRC+ in 2007 compared to 112 in 2009. The difference is in his performance on balls in play. In 2007, Sizemore posted a BABIP of .333, contrasted with a BABIP of only .275 in ’09. The question, then, is whether or not this BABIP dip which has carried over to 2010 (.287 in 93 BIP) is indicative of his true talent of if it’s simply random variation.
We can separate Sizemore’s career into two separate eras based on his BABIP. From 2005-2007, Sizemore’s BABIPs were .334, .339, and .333 respectively – a remarkably stable mark. From 2008-2010, Sizemore has recorded BABIPs of .290, .275, and .287. Still relatively stable, given the statistic, but a far cry from the high marks of his early career.
The key difference in Sizemore’s profile is a jump in infield fly balls. His IFFB rate stayed within the 5-6% range from 2005-2007, but jumped all the way to 10.% in 2008, 8.7% in 2009, and 7.7% in 2010. The infield fly ball is death to BABIP – the league BABIP on balls marked infield fly is roughly .020. This hasn’t been accompanied be a marked change in FB rate or a decrease in HR/FB rate – marks that could indicate either an uppercut swing or a loss of latent power. This doesn’t completely explain the drop in BABIP, but a 3% increase in infield fly balls essentially takes 6 hits away per season, which explains a sizeable portion of the dip. Hitting more infield flies could also suggest that Sizemore is simply making weaker contact, which would lower his BABIPs on all batted ball types.
Perhaps the various injuries that Sizemore has been dealing with since 2009 have changed his swing in some way as to induce more infield fly balls and create weaker contact than in his best years. Perhaps it’s an issue with his plate discipline, as Dave Allen noted last week, or a combination of the two. Last season, Sizemore dealt with a pulled groin which later needed surgery and then elbow surgery in the offseason. The best case scenario for the Indians is that some simple rest allows Sizemore’s body to fix what ails him and allows him to regain his swing. If injuries aren’t the issue, and Sizemore simply isn’t able to reach base on balls in play as he did from 2005-2007, the era of Grady Sizemore as a superstar will likely be over.
The Baltimore Orioles are a shocking 17 games out of first place. Part of it is that they’ve played really poorly, but that has been compounded with Tampa Bay playing excellent baseball and opening up a canyon sized gap despite the calendar still reading May. However, while their playoff odds may be zero due in large part because of the division they play in, the fact still remains that the Orioles hold no realistic chance of playing baseball in October of this year.
With that being made clear so quickly, the Orioles should take advantage of the one silver lining in the cloud that is their 2010 season – the ability to be the first seller to market.
Over the last few weeks, we’ve heard multiple GMs explaining that there simply isn’t a market of available players yet. The oft-quoted principle of the first third of the season being for evaluating your roster has spread, and historically, there have been very few significant trades made before June. Organizations are reticent to wave the white flag too early in a given season, and prefer to wait until summer before becoming sellers.
This reluctance to trade, quite simply, an opportunity for the Orioles. They have several pieces who could be of interest to potential contenders who need to improve sooner than later, and could peddle the likes of Kevin Millwood, Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, and Miguel Tejada without any serious competition from other teams who will join the market in a month or two.
Being the only seller in a market where there is demand for players can only be a good thing for the Orioles. While they have some attractive pieces, players like Wigginton won’t stand up as well once the market gets crowded with better players being made available. Right now, he would be the best right-handed hitter any team could acquire, though that almost certainly won’t be true in July.
There’s no point in waiting any longer. The Orioles should let every GM know that their players are available, and they’re willing to deal. They might not be selling grade A premium beef, but there’s a reason Taco Bell does so well at 2 am – they’re the only ones open.
Although the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks are fading into NL West irrelevance fairly quickly, their infield has had a good season so far. Mark Reynolds, Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson are all hitting well. The fourth member of the infield, shortstop Stephen Drew, has gotten relatively little attention this season. However, he’s actually leading the Diamondbacks’ value leaderboard as of today at 1.6 Win Above Replacement.
While Drew performed well in his 59 game (226 PA) 2006 debut, his first full season in 2007 was a disappointment both offensively and in the field. At the plate, Drew simply didn’t show much power (.133 ISO), and while there were good signs as far as his walk rate and plate approach went, as well as a fair share of BABIP bad luck, a .303 wOBA (-18.9 batting runs below average) wasn’t exactly what the Diamondbacks were hoping for from their 2004 first round pick, especially when his defense was at best average (Plus/Minus) and at worst abysmal (-12.3 UZR). 2008 showed marked offensive improvement for Drew. Although his OBP was merely adequate (.333) he hit for good power (.211) ISO as part of a .353 wOBA campaign — very good for a shortstop, even of of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors. However, his defense was, if anything, worse than it had been the season before, between below average (-3 DRS) and Betancourt-esque (-15.8 UZR). According to the defensive metrics, 2009 was an improvement in the field for Drew (+8 DRS, +3 UZR), but his bat fell back below average.
It isn’t as if Drew has been terrible the past couple of seasons. On the contrary, with the less-friendly UZR numbers, FanGraphs WAR has him at 2.2 in 2008 and 2.1 in 2009 — about a league-average player. I suspect that a detailed study would find this is be decent production for a #15 draft pick. Still, it would be understandable if the Diamondbacks and their fans were a bit disappointed in Drew.
2010 has been a different story. It’s too early to say much about the defense other than to note that Drew’s numbers look to be in line with his improvements in 2009. Drew’s offensive output (.304/.372/.507, .387 wOBA) has been impressive so far. He’s hitting with the power he displayed in 2008 without excessive home run/flyball luck (although he has had one inside-the-parker). There isn’t much different going on for Drew, actually, in terms of plate discipline or batted ball profile — a few more walks, and a few more line drives. He’s probably benefiting from luck on balls in play (.357 BABIP), and his platoon split (a career-long issue) in 2010 is big even for a lefty. And, of course, he’s only 165 plate appearances into the season.
It is to the organization’s credit that they didn’t get frustrated with Drew’s “merely” average value the previous two seasons. The Diamondbacks have let Drew work out his struggles with the bat and glove on the field, rather than scapegoating him, moving him to a different position in favor of a mediocre stopgap, or trading him when his value would be low. Maybe Drew will just turn out to be an average player in the long-run, but the Diamondbacks have been smart enough to realize that their best choice in the situation has been to be patient, and so far in 2010, they are reaping the reward.
The Texas Rangers’ ’09 draft took a huge hit when the organization failed to sign its first pick in Texas high school pitcher Matt Purke. The 14th overall pick spurned the club’s advances and headed off to Texas Christian University. He’ll be a draft-eligible sophomore and will be back in the 2011 draft.
The club redeemed itself with a couple of astute selections with the 44th overall pick (Tanner Scheppers) and 93rd overall selection (Robert Erlin), both pitchers. Today, we’re going to focus on the third round pick. Erlin caught the attention of scouts as a southpaw starter at a high school in Scotts Valley, California, despite his less than ideal pitcher’s stature of 5’11”, 175 lbs.
As Baseball American noted in its ’09 pre-draft coverage:
“…several scouts have said the same thing about him: ‘If he were two inches taller, you’d be talking about him as a first-rounder.'”
Despite his commitment to Cal Poly, Erlin signed with Texas and got in three relief appearances before the ’09 minor league season ended. This season, the 19-year-old hurler has been playing at low-A Hickory. Given durability concerns and his inexperience, Erlin was eased into the season and his first eight appearances came out of the bullpen. During that stretch, he allowed 11 hits and four walks in 20.1 innings of work.
On May 18, the southpaw made his first pro start and did not allow a hit or a walk over five innings of work. He struck out nine batters. Overall on the season, Erlin has allowed just one run – a solo homer – and has absolutely dominated hitters. He holding right-handed batters to a .098 batting average.
And this is not simply a strike-throwing soft-tosser overmatching the young, aggressive hitters in the South Atlantic League. We head back to Baseball America:
Despite the small frame, he has life on his fastball, pitching at 89-92 mph. He commands the pitch to both sides of the plate and has an above-average curveball–a hammer he can throw for strikes in any count.
Erlin doesn’t have the electric repertoire of a Martin Perez, Neftali Feliz or Scheppers, but he’s got an above-average repertoire, as well as a good feel for pitching – especially given his age. The organization has already shown a willingness to handle Erlin carefully, despite the obvious impulse to let him loose on the unsuspecting batters in the low minors. Don’t be surprised if you see his name littered amongst Top 10 post-season prospect lists.
Bryce Harper, hitting prodigy extraordinaire. Dubbed by Sports Illustrated as the baseball’s Lebron James, Harper is the most hyped prospect since, well, Steven Strasburg, who was drafted just last year. Both players have the tools and the results to be considered worthy of such hysteria.
Steven Strasburg is dominating Triple-A pitching already, and Harper has clubbed 23 homeruns in 198 at-bats as a 17 year old collegiate in a league that plays only with wooden bats. Sure, it’s junior college, but Harper has done nothing to sully his reputation as a prodigious power hitter. The craziest thing about this all is these two super-phenoms could be battery mates in D.C. in the very near future if a.) The Nationals draft him, which it appears that they will, and b.) If Harper can stick at catcher, and many scouts believe that he can.
The Nationals already doled out a record signing of $15.67 million to Strasburg last year, raising some eyebrows among fans and analysts alike, but it was a far cry from the possible Dice-K numbers that he was rumored to be initially seeking. Harper, who is advised by none other than Scott Boras, is rumored to be seeking even more money than Strasburg, according to Jon Heyman. (What? Heyman leaking bonus demands of a Boras client? That’s shocking!)
While it seems astounding to us average Joes that a kid not old enough to vote would receive such big dollars, is it really that nuts for a player drafted 1st overall to get that sort of money?
To answer that question I looked at all the 1-1 picks since the history of the draft. I’m looking just at the players who have played long enough to be judged to this point, so no Strasburg, David Price, Justin Upton, Tim Beckham or Luke Hochevar. Again, I’m looking only at the player’s first seasons in the majors, not when they are free agent eligible. I’m using Rally’s Historical WAR database to get their WAR totals.
Here’s the Top 5 1-1 picks of all time, and what their production would have been worth on today’s free agent market.
Name Pos HS/COL WAR WAR/yr. FA$ Alex Rodriguez SS High School 37.5 6.3 153.8 Ken Griffey OF High School 35.2 5.9 144.3 Joe Mauer C High School 33.1 5.9 135.7 Chipper Jones SS High School 26.8 4.5 109.9 Dar. Strawberry OF High School 26.7 4.5 109.5
It’s attention-grabbing to me that all of these hitters came out of high school. And of course, they were all really, really good. If Harper can come even close to any of these select few, he’ll be worth his bonus many times over.
Now getting beyond the fun, superlative stuff, 45% of the #1 overall picks have produced nothing or next to nothing in the big leagues. Averaging all the 1st picks together, you get 9.5 WAR, or 1.6 WAR per season. We are talking about just 40 players, so standard deviation for the group is 1.8 WAR per season, in case you were wondering.
If we estimate that a player worth 1.6 WAR per season will earn about $13 million before they hit free agency (factoring in the 40%, 60%, 80% arbitration estimates and league minimum pay), we find that said player is worth a surplus value of around $26 million. So while handing out a bonus of $15 million puts a good sized dent in that surplus, that’s still a considerable surplus left over.
For all the moralizing and hem-hawing that #1 draft picks are vastly overpaid, I’d argue that they are a relative value. Sure, there is a good bit of risk involved, but when you glance at the overall picture, the #1 overall picks on an average have been worth their scratch. If Bryce Harper is worth only a fraction of the hype he’s received, he’ll be well worth whatever the record signing money he receives.
I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about Carl Crawford this week. Yesterday, it led me back to Rickey Henderson. Today, we go the other direction, as I’ve been struck by just how shockingly similar one of the game’s best young outfielders is to the Rays star.
First, here’s Crawford’s 2010 season line:
.316/.376/.510, 8.5% BB%, 18.5% K%, .194 ISO, .368 BABIP, 10/4 SB/CS .386 wOBA
And now, here’s Andrew McCutchen’s 2010 season line:
.327/.382/.487, 7.6% BB%, 17.3% K%, .160 ISO, .371 BABIP, 12/4 SB/CS, .390 wOBA
Both McCutchen and Crawford are guys whose most obvious tool is speed, but then offer a surprising amount of punch at the plate. They hit the ball hard, utilizing their gap power to sprint around the bases and rack up doubles and triples. They’re not identical, of course, as Crawford is a lefty and McCutchen is a righty, and Crawford is three inches taller as well, but they are very similar ballplayers.
Despite all the problems the Pirates have faced this year, they still have to be thrilled with how quickly their center fielder has turned into one of the game’s best. He’s still just 23 years of age, but has now racked up essentially one full year’s worth of playing time in the big leagues (148 games, 664 plate appearances), and he’s been worth +4.5 wins over that time. That’s an all-star level performance, and he’s done it as a rookie. In fact, over the last calendar year, McCutchen has the highest wOBA (.377) of any center fielder in baseball.
It might be a little silly to go looking for the next Carl Crawford when the current one hasn’t even turned 30 yet, but McCutchen has staked his claim as being the next in line to Crawford’s throne, ruling the land of excitement with line drives and triples. Pittsburgh has a lot of fixing to do, but they have one rock solid piece in place; their center fielder is already in the discussion for best in the game at a very young age.
This is the final part of a series about first-round catchers. I’m not the first to tackle the 2010 draft’s best catchers, as Jeff Sackmann at Hardball Times and the crew at Baseball America beat me to the punch this week.
So far this week, we have looked back at the history of every first-round catcher taken in the draft since 1988. As Erik warned us earlier in the week, expectations for any position are dubious at best, and catchers are no exception. Given their positional value — +12.5 in WAR’s adjustment — it is understandable why 2-4 scouting directors every draft roll the dice on a backstop. This June will be no exception, as we know the top of the draft will be occupied by a catcher, and I think it’s easy to forecast two more players going before the start of the second round. We’ll look at those three players today.
1. Bryce Harper, College of Southern Nevada
It was fairly standard for a catcher to be the first name called at the June Amateur Draft upon its conception, as four catchers in the first 11 years were the top pick. But the group struggled at the big leave level, as Steve Chilcott, Mike Ivie, and Danny Goodwin (drafted twice) combined for just 5.8 WAR. So, it took 26 years before a team gambled with a catcher while drafting first, passing over the Best Ever Pre-Strasburg College Pitcher to do so: Joe Mauer.
The Nationals will look to make it a second straight success story in a few weeks, as no bonus demand will stop them from drafting Harper. Four months ago, the assumption inside and outside baseball was that the hype for Harper was growing out of control. But considering the records he is breaking at a tough level, it’s clear the Sports Illustrated cover was justified. He is the most sure-fire bat in the draft since Mark Teixeira or Josh Hamilton, depending who you speak to.
While Mauer has displayed the athleticism to stick behind the plate even when his size suggests he shouldn’t, I’m not sure Harper does. I think he outgrows the position, and becomes something like the 2009 version of Jayson Werth. Right field would be a good option, I think, where his fantastic arm could have the same effect it might behind the plate. The priority has to be getting the bat to the Major League level, and keeping Harper healthy, and I think right field is the best option. But still, expect him to be announced as a catcher on June 7.
2. Yasmani Grandal, University of Miami
Three years ago, I wrote about Grandal as one of “My Guys on Draft Day“, as he had been my second favorite prospect (behind Padres prospect Drew Cumberland) at the 2006 East Coast Showcase. Here’s what I wrote of the high school version of Grandal:
Grandal is the best defensive catcher for his age in the draft, and as a switch-hitter, he has value despite only average offensive skills. His bat speed lags behind most top round prospects, but Grandal’s position and defensive prowess will be worth his bonus amount.
Ultimately, baseball’s brass disagreed with my assessment, as Grandal’s bonus demands were too high. The clubs opted to see how he would perform against Division I pitching, a call that he has certainly answered this season. My guess is that Grandal will end up a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award, as he’s hitting a ridiculous .425/.547/.768 through 51 games, the majority of which have been spent behind the plate.
And still, Grandal is considered a bit of a tweener. Opinions on his defense have regressed a little bit since high school, though he now garners more praise for his receiving skills than his abilities throwing runners out. He’s always had good patience and solid pop, and this season, is finally putting to rest the opinions that he might have a slow bat. Ultimately, he’s not the prospect that Matt Wieters or Buster Posey were coming out of school, but I’ll take him before Jason Castro, Tony Sanchez or Jeff Clement, the other three college catchers taken in the top ten recently.
3. Micah Gibbs, Louisiana State University
Playing everyday this year, Gibbs has halved his strikeouts, upped his power, and for the first time, avoided a prolonged slump. And yet, I think his draft buzz was higher entering the season than it is today. A macro view at the star’s career indicates that he maybe shouldn’t be a first-round pick after all: I’m not sure there is one particular skill in his arsenal that is first round caliber.
He’s making better contact this season, but that has been a weakness in the past. His patience last year was fantastic, but this season, it’s fairly average. His power is good for a catcher, but seven home runs is still a career-high. And his defense, which drew a lot of praise this season, is drawing more skeptical opinions this year. Especially given the general struggles of the LSU pitching staff.
The rumors are that Gibbs will be a supplemental first round pick still, but I’m no longer so sure I agree. I would give the Tigers catcher a third-round grade, and surely the highest Bust Potential of this three-man group.
Next week: A different position: past, present and future.
Last night, New York Mets starter John Maine toed the rubber at Nationals Park. Washington leadoff hitter Nyjer Morgan stepped into the box. Maine tossed an 85 MPH fastball high. Ball one. An 83 MPH offering with a little more tail missed on the outside corner. Ball two. Morgan squared to bunt on a fastball inside at 85, but thought better of it and pulled back. Ball three. Morgan showed bunt on another 85 MPH fastball but let it go by for a strike. Yet another 85 MPH fastball missed inside, and Morgan scampered to first base.
Maine slumped forward, hands on his knees, as Mets manager Jerry Manuel, pitching coach Dan Warthen and trainer Ray Ramirez walked to the mound. Manuel signaled for the lefty, Raul Valdes. And just like that, Maine’s night was over.
According to ESPNNewYork’s Adam Rubin, Manuel said after the game that he was “trying to protect his [Maine’s] best interests,” and he doesn’t “want to be responsible for a young man’s career.” Warthen said, “John’s a habitual liar in a lot of ways as far as his own health. He’s a competitor and a warrior and he wants to go out there and pitch. But you have to be smart enough to realize this guy isn’t right.” Maine, meanwhile, was peeved: “Look, I’ve felt pain for two years, but I’m over that…I don’t care about that. I’m well enough to pitch. I wanted to pitch. That’s the bottom line.”
The 29-year-old right-hander has dealt with a series of injury problems over the past three seasons. He was placed on the DL in August of 2008 with a right rotator cuff strain, returned to make three starts and was then shut down. In late September of ’08, he underwent surgery to remove a large bone spur from his right shoulder. Last year, he spent three months on the DL with right shoulder weakness. This year, Maine has battled left elbow soreness.
Maine, who’s scheduled to examined by doctors today, says he’s healthy enough to pitch. But whatever is ailing him, it’s clear that his performance is suffering.
From 2006-2008, Maine posted a 4.41 expected FIP (xFIP). He struck out 7.97 batters per nine innings, while issuing 3.74 BB/9. He had a 38.3 percent ground ball rate and a 43.4 percent fly ball rate. Maine’s average fastball velocity was 91 MPH in 2006, 91.2 MPH in 2007 and 92.1 MPH in 2008.
Unfortunately, Maine’s 2009 and 2010 showings look good only in comparison to those of Oliver Perez. He threw 81.1 frames in ’09, with 6.09 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 5.09 xFIP. His already-low ground ball rate fell to 35.1 percent, and his fly ball rate climbed to 43.7 percent.
This season, Maine is missing more lumber (8.85 K/9), but he hasn’t been able to locate (5.67 BB/9). Getting grounders just 26.5 percent of the time and allowing fly balls 52.1 percent, Maine has a 5.29 xFIP in 39.2 innings. He’s giving up 1.82 home runs per nine innings. Maine’s home run/fly ball rate (13.1%) might fall a bit, but he’s got the lowest rate of grounders and the third-highest rate of fly balls among starters with at least 30 innings pitched. With those numbers, homers are going to be a problem.
Take a look at his heater velocity since those injury problems started cropping up:
Maine’s overall fastball velocity in 2009 was 91.3 MPH. However, that figure declined directly before his June DL stint and after he returned in September. Maine averaged 91.7 MPH in April, 91.4 MPH in May and 90.4 MPH during his one June start. In three September starts and one October start, he averaged 90.6 MPH.
This year, Maine (throwing his fastball three-quarters of the time) is sitting just 88.6 MPH. During his big league career, he has a +0.26 run value per 100 pitches with the fastball. In 2010, however, it has been hammered for -0.85 runs per 100 thrown. Of course, that’s actually better than his changeup (-2.17) and slider (-3.89).
While his 77.9 percent contact rate bests the 80.9 percent MLB average and he’s getting swings on pitches outside of the strike zone 28.1 percent (27.5 percent MLB average), Maine hasn’t been able to throw strikes consistently. Just 45.7 percent of his pitches have been within the zone, which is two percentage points below the big league average. All three of his pitches have below-average strike rates: 61.4 for the fastball (64.4 MLB average), 57.4 for the changeup (60.7) and 55.3 for the slider (63.4).
It’s no surprise that a starter, lobbing high-80’s fastballs with spotty control and a sky-high fly ball rate, is getting throttled. Hopefully, Maine and the Mets can find the root cause of his struggles.
Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool
