Trading season has officially opened. This morning the Arizona Diamondbacks, last place in the NL West by 7.5 games, traded outfielder Conor Jackson to the Oakland A’s for 24-year-old minor league reliever Sam Demel. The move not only reflects Jackson’s poor performance this year, but also Arizona’s need for bullpen arms now and in the future.

Jackson, the 19th overall selection in the 2003 draft, was until recently considered a part of the organization’s plan. After dominating Triple-A in 2005 he played a full season at first base for the Diamondbacks in 2006, posting a .352 wOBA. He improved in 2007, posting a .363 wOBA. A move back to the outfield in 2008 proved useful. Not only did Jackson post his best offensive season to date, but he also ranked positively on defense, in UZR and DRS, at both left field and first base.

But then, just as Jackson was entering his prime years, he fell ill. Last week Pat Andriola examined Jackson’s case of Valley Fever which cost him most of the 2009 season. He did make a recovery, but, as Pat notes, the physical tolls of the illness might still be plaguing Jackson. Not only has he hit for far less power, but he also has spent time on the DL this season with a hamstring strain. The Valley Fever might be out of his system, but it appears that the lingering effects remain.

Why, then, would the Diamondbacks, who have the luxury of being patient, trade him away so early in the season? He does, after all, have another year of team control, so if he makes a recovery later in the year the Diamondbacks could have reaped the benefits in 2011, when they might have a chance of contending. The answer appears to be twofold.

First is the obvious need to rebuild the bullpen. Arizona currently sports the league’s worst bullpen. The unit surrenders 5.78 runs per game and allows inherited runners to score 47 percent of the time (second worst in the majors). Demel will immediately join the major league team, and they hope he can somewhat replicate the success he showed this year in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Always a relatively high-strikeout and low-homer reliever, Demel has greatly improved his walk rate this season, 2.8 per nine compared to his minor league average of 4.5 per nine. While he might not become a striking success, he should represent an improvement for Arizona.

The second is to open up a spot for one of the Diamondbacks’ younger players. Jackson makes $3 million this year, and there might be pressure to play him as long as they’re paying him. MLB.com’s Steve Glibert, who broke the story, reports that Gerardo Parra, “will likely get the bulk of the playing time in left field with Jackson gone.” Parra, the Diamondbacks’ No. 2 prospect in 2009, doesn’t have the profile of a corner outfielder. He never really hit for power in the minors, and none of the scouting reports suggest that’s a tool he’s sure to develop. He still had a decent showing in 2009, and his power has increased a bit early this season. The Diamondbacks at least want to get a good look at what he can do.

There are also a couple of players on the farm, namely Arizona’s first and second rounders in the 2009 draft, who could eventually graduate to take Jackson’s spot. First rounder A.J. Pollock is still out after undergoing surgery to repair a growth plate fracture in his right elbow, though he still factors into the team’s plans. Marc Krauss, their second round pick, profiles as more of a corner outfielder. In its organizational rankings, Baseball America commented that Krauss, “could be the first player from Arizona’s 2009 draft class to reach the majors.” He’s currently in high-A ball.

We knew that the Diamondbacks would undergo big changes, and this appears to be just the start. Moving Jackson isn’t a big move in itself, but is part of a longer outlook that the Diamondbacks hope will bring them back into contention. As Dave said in his Diamondbacks trade deadline article, they could save some money after the season by non-tendering Jackson. They instead traded him for a player who, while unspectacular, helps fill a grave need. They’ll now get a better look at a former top prospect, and will, after the season, have a better idea of how to fill the left field spot in the long term.

The Oakland Athletics sit at 32-33, only four games out of first in a tight AL West, despite a terrible .316 wOBA from their outfielders. Oakland GM Billy Beane saw a chance to upgrade at that position today, acquiring Conor Jackson from the Diamondbacks.

This is a classic buy low from Beane. Conor Jackson has been struggling since an unfortunate encounter with valley fever in 2009. In his last 282 PAs, Jackson has a .280 wOBA. Given that he splits his defensive time between left field and first base, that’s well below replacement level even before we take into account that Jackson isn’t a great fielder. So what does Beane see in Jackson?

In the three seasons before 2009, Jackson was a well above-average hitter. Each season saw an OBP above .365 and a wOBA above .350. His walk rate hovered just above average and his strikeout rates were low, a combination leading to the aforementioned above-average OBP. There’s reason to believe that Jackson can return to this previous level of play, as the limited plate appearances he’s seen aren’t nearly enough to establish a new talent level. ZiPS believes that Jackson will be an above-average hitter for the rest of the season, projecting a .269/.351/.411 line, good for a .341 wOBA, the rest of the way.

That’s not a fantastic number for a mediocre corner outfielder, but it should provide an upgrade over Eric Patterson or a legitimate right-handed platoon partner for Gabe Gross, both of whom are mightily struggling at the plate in 2010. Beane likely believes that if Jackson has made a full recovery from his ailment that he could return to the .350 or .360 wOBAs he posted in ’06-’08, which would make him easily the best-hitting regular outfielder on the team.

The Athletics sent 24-year-old Triple-A closer Sam Demel to the Diamondbacks to complete the trade. Demel has solid but not dominant numbers with Sacramento, posting a 3.11 park adjusted FIP. He has a solid 8.7:2.8 K:BB ratio, but that FIP is supported by a very low 3.7% HR/FB rate. Including a luck adjustment (which can be seen here), Demel has a 4.03 FIP. Given the presence of Jerry Blevins, Andrew Bailey, Mike Wuertz, Craig Breslow, and Brad Ziegler, Demel is an expendable piece.

Jackson is certainly no guarantee, as the move to a larger stadium in the better league could just push his already poor 2010 numbers even lower. However, there’s a pretty good chance that Jackson becomes the best-hitting outfielder on the A’s roster with this move. Given that the price was a fringe-type minor league reliever, the risk here is low, and the potential reward high enough to warrant the acquisition.

Coming into the 2010 season, there wasn’t all that much to be excited about as a Jays fan. Although new GM Alex Anthopoulos was ready to take over with a bright future ahead, hopes in Toronto rested mostly in prospects such as Kyle Drabek and Brett Wallace. With Roy Halladay and Alex Rios gone, the Jays were looking at a rock bottom season.

But that hasn’t happened at all. Instead, the Jays stand at a surprising five games over .500 in the dangerous territory we call the American League East. Although Toronto’s pitching has been solid, it has been their offense that has shocked everyone around baseball. Let’s take a look at some of those guys who are turning heads.

CF Vernon Wells
2010 wOBA: .396
2009 wOBA: .314
Career wOBA: .346

Oh, Vernon. When the Jays put Alex Rios on waivers last season, most people were pointing at Wells’ massive contract as a worse failure than Rios’. However, like Rios, Wells has bounced back big this year. For Wells it’s been due to his power resurgence; his BABIP of .293 is right around his career norm, but his HR/FB rate of 19.7% is a career high at the moment.

OF Jose Bautista
2010 wOBA: .390
2009 wOBA: .339
Career wOBA: .328

The biggest shocker of them all, Bautista is currently slugging .152 better than last year with 18 homers already on the season. Aside from the pop, he’s also increased his walk numbers, getting on base at a career high rate. Bautista’s .221 BABIP is well below his career mark of .275, but his HR/FB rate of 20.2% is not only a career high but one of the top marks in the major leagues.

SS Alex Gonzalez
2010 wOBA: .349
2009 wOBA: .275
Career wOBA: .298

If Bautista is the biggest shock, Gonzalez is certainly a close second. Gonzalez got his contract with Toronto based mostly on his durability, defense, and rings. However, the man who slugged .355 last year is now at .509, a dramatic increase. Gonzalez, who has already hit five more homers than he did in all of 2009, has been a godsend for the Jays.

LF Fred Lewis
2010 wOBA: .340
2009 wOBA: .327
Career wOBA: .343

While Lewis’ production this year certainly isn’t jaw-dropping, it is nevertheless surprising; Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, and FanGraphs Fans all predicted Lewis to underperform his current wOBA. Considering Lewis was also cut in Spring Training and had to find his way to a new team (and divison, and league, and country) right before the season, and that he had a subpar 2009, this has been a nice year for Fred.

C John Buck
2010 wOBA: .337
2009 wOBA: .332
Career wOBA: .307

Poor Royals fans. Despite putting up 0.5 WAR in just 59 games last year, Kansas City decided to go with Jason Kendall for 2010. Toronto has been the benefactor of that mistake, as Buck already hit more homeruns this year than all of 2009. While his numbers aren’t as gaudy as some of the other players, his pop makes him a nice asset at catcher.

With the huge struggles from Aaron Hill, Lyle Overbay, and Adam Lind, the Toronto Blue Jays would be in a far worse position were it not for the great seasons being had by some surprising names. I’m not sure if Anthopoulos planned it all to go down this way, but he gets the credit nonetheless, and the Jays find themselves in a decent position with some bright players on the farm.

Over the next six weeks, most of the General Managers of contending teams will ask themselves the same question – what am I willing to give up to get Cliff Lee? Lee is the big fish in the upcoming trade season, as he is arguably the best left-handed pitcher in baseball right now, and is just a year removed from one of the most impressive post-season performances we’ve ever seen.

Each team will come to a different conclusion about what to offer based on their own team’s circumstances and how they value different players, but let’s try to offer a helping hand by quantifying Lee’s trade value as of today.

If a team traded for him tomorrow, they’d likely be able to extract 20 starts from Lee the rest of the season, as most teams have about 100 games left on their schedule. No one is going to be able to put together a deal that quickly, however, so we’ll estimate 18 starts in order to give them enough time to make a trade.

Over the last three years, Lee has made 74 starts and has been worth +16.8 wins over a replacement level starter, or about .23 wins per outing. Multiply that rate out over 18 starts and you come up with just over +4 wins for the rest of 2010. His performance has been so good the last few years that you don’t have to regress the projection that much. To account for the chance of injury or some kind of unexpected performance drop, you probably knock it down to +3.5 wins, or something in that range.

The marginal value of a win last winter was about $4 million. Using that figure, we’d estimate that the remainder of Lee’s 2010 regular season to be worth about $14 million. But teams are now operating with more information than they had over the winter.

Contenders and pretenders have been sorted out to a degree, and teams that actually have a chance to play in October have a better likelihood of seeing that come to pass than they did before the season began. Thus, while teams do factor post-season performance into their off-season pricing, it becomes more valuable at the trade deadline, as teams adjust their rosters for the playoffs. In reality, the marginal value of a win in July is almost certainly higher than it is in December, due to the increased certainty with which GMs can project their playoff chances.

I would estimate the marginal value of a win in July to be closer to $5 million than $4 million, which would put Lee’s value at $18 million instead of $14, but it’s in the same general range. A team that trades for Lee doesn’t just get his 2010 season, however, but also is basically guaranteed two draft picks when he leaves via free agency (or they get to re-sign him, which is a value in and of itself), since he’s a lock for Type A free agency.

If we use the numbers that Victor Wang concluded, the value of the compensation picks is about $6 million, a significant figure. Given that 2011 is projected as an exceptionally strong draft class, it might even be a little bit higher, but we’ll stick with that value for now.

That would make the asset that is Cliff Lee worth between $20 and $26 million. He’s due about $5 million left of his 2010 salary, so we’ll subtract that amount from the overall total, and get $15 to $21 million in surplus value.

What does that look like in terms of prospects? According to the values Wang came up with, that’s a hitting prospect in the 25-75 range or a top 10 pitching prospect, plus maybe another lesser piece or two in order to win the bidding. Historically, that is basically what we see. The Indians obtained Matt LaPorta and change for CC Sabathia two years ago. The A’s got Brett Wallace and change for Matt Holliday last year. That is basically the established return for a rent-a-star.

If you’re a GM shopping for Cliff Lee this summer, that looks to be the price – $15 to $20 million worth of value, which translates into one high quality prospect and a few fillers.

Every season, a few bullpen arms emerge (or re-emerge) from obscurity, providing their clubs with excellent relief work for a bargain-basement price. Today I’d like to highlight three such hurlers. Each experienced big league success in the past, but had fallen on hard times lately. Without further ado, here are the ‘pen performers who have returned from the dead in 2010..

J.J. Putz, White Sox

Signed: December 2009 — 1 year, $3 million

A nondescript major leaguer with the Mariners in 2004 and 2005 (a combined 0.1 WAR in 123 innings), Putz terrorized hitters in the late frames the following two years. With a fastball that crept up to the mid-nineties, a mid-80’s slider and an upper-80’s splitter, he led all relievers with 3.6 WAR in 2006 and followed up with 2.3 WAR (a top-10 mark) in 2007. Over that two-year span, Putz owned an 11.16 K/9, 1.56 BB/9 and a 2.50 xFIP (best among relievers).

The 6-5, 250 pound righty’s reign as bullpen king, however, was short-lived. Plagued by rig cage and elbow ailments in 2008, Putz still missed scads of bats (10.88 K/9) but lost the zone often (5.44 BB/9). He hit the DL twice and finished with a 4.13 xFIP and 0.6 WAR. Swapped to the Mets as part of a three-team deal in December of ’08, Putz tossed just 29.1 innings for the Amazin’s last year before undergoing season-ending surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow. He never looked right, compiling just 0.1 WAR with as many walks as punch outs (5.83 K/9 and BB/9 apiece).

Picked up by the White Sox over the winter, Putz is dealing in 2010. He has a 2.28 xFIP and 0.6 WAR in 21.2 IP, whiffing 11.63 per nine innings and issuing 1.66 BB/9. During his big league career, Putz has thrown his fastball about 70 percent of the time. This season, however, he’s going to the heat 52 percent of the time. The 33-year-old is relying heavily on his splitter (about 35 percent), and he’s getting a ton of swings on pitches off the plate and plenty of whiffs. Among relievers with 10+ IP, Putz places tenth in outside swing percentage (37) and 20th in swinging strike rate (12.8 percent).

Joaquin Benoit, Rays

Signed: February, 2010 — minor league deal, $750K with $500K in incentives

A swingman with the Rangers from 2002-2005, Benoit transitioned to relief full-time in 2006. Over the next two seasons, he owned an 9.58 K/9, 3.67 BB/9 and a 4.01 xFIP, racking up 1.4 WAR in ’06 and two wins in ’07. Benoit had long dealt with injury problems — according to the Baseball Injury Tool, he was sidelined with elbow inflammation in 2003, shoulder tendinitis in 2004, and shoulder and elbow tendinitis in 2005. But he was healthy and effective for the Rangers for those two seasons.

It didn’t last, though. Bothered by shoulder soreness in 2008, Benoit slogged through a sub-replacement-level season (-0.2 WAR). Joaquin K’d 8.6 batters per nine innings, but walked seven per nine with a 5.71 xFIP. He underwent rotator cuff surgery in early 2009 and missed the entire season.

The Rays took a flyer this past winter, and it’s paying off. Benoit, 32, shredded Triple-A hitters with Durham to begin the 2010 campaign (9.2 IP, 17/3 K/BB) and he’s doing the same in the majors. He’s got 12.64 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 15.2 innings, with a 2.29 xFIP and 0.4 WAR. Throwing his fastball harder than ever (93.7 MPH average) and mixing in mid-80’s sliders and low-80’s changeups, Benoit has an obscene 16.4 swinging strike rate, a number that is tops among MLB relievers.

Clay Hensley, Marlins

Signed: May 2009, minor league contract. Re-signed for $425K in December 2009

Hensley’s career highlight is a 2.1 WAR season for the Padres back in 2006. In 29 starts and eight relief stints covering 187 innings, Hensley used a kitchen-sink approach to post a 4.34 xFIP. Using an 88 MPH sinker, a low-80’s slider, a mid-70’s curve, and a low-80’s change, Hensley didn’t miss many bats (5.87 K/9) and his control was average (3.66 BB/9), but he made up for it with strong ground ball tendencies (53.9 GB%).

Injuries wrecked his next two seasons, as Hensley succumbed to labrum surgery in September of 2007. Before going under the knife, he served up Barry Bonds‘ 755th career home run and then got booted to the minors the next day. Hensley had a combined -0.3 WAR over the ’07 and ’08 seasons.

The Astros signed him to a minor league deal prior to 2009, but released him. The Marlins scooped Hensley up and stuck him in the Triple-A rotation, where he posted rates of 6.47 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a 3.73 FIP in 114 innings. While he lost out on a rotation spot this past spring, the 30-year-old has been a revelation in relief for Florida.

He’s still a soft-tosser (89.1 MPH), but he has gone to the fastball under 50 percent of the time. Instead he’s going to a slow curve (71-72 MPH) and changeup over 20 percent each, while tossing the occasional slider as well. Hensley has a 3.10 xFIP and 0.8 WAR in 32.1 IP so far, with a whopping 11.69 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. Clay has retained his ground ball rate, too, with a 50.7 GB%.

As these three show, there are values to be had on the relief pitching market. A team can cobble together an effective ‘pen without shelling out a high seven-figure annual salary and holding a flashy press conference.

Jason Bay’s status as a prized free agent was primarily based on one skill: his ability to hit home runs. He hit 36 in 2009, and 31 in 2008, cementing himself as one of the games premier power hitters. Indeed, CHONE and ZiPS projected Bay for 34 and 36 home runs respectively, and even the pessimistic FANS saw a 29 home run season for Bay.

Halfway through June, however, Jason Bay has four home runs. With 267 plate appearances under his belt already, that’s a pace for only 13 home runs, putting him on a level with such vaunted sluggers as Melky Cabrera and Pedro Feliz.

It’s possible that Citi Field is part of the issue – only 40 home runs have been hit there all season. Right handers attempting to pull the ball have to deal with a 335 foot left field corner which quickly juts out to 364 foot and then a 384 foot left center power alley. Bay hit 24 HRs to left field last season; through 63 games, he’s hit one.

Let’s compare Bay’s 2009 and 2010, thanks to the excellent data over at Hit Tracker Online

[Click to enlarge]

It’s a sea of red in left field, but no blue to be found. The HR that was classified in left field is close to center field. Bay’s power to left field has simply disappeared. Bay’s ISO to left field is a ridiculous .110 – of the 82 balls he’s hit to left field, only 6 have gone for extra bases. That’s after posting 42 XBH to left in 2009, and 34 in 2008.

To expect Bay to post a ridiculous .466 ISO to left field, 165% of the league average for right handers, for a second time in 2010 would be a mistake even if Bay wasn’t moving from one of the most righty-friendly parks in the league to possibly one of the least. He was about an average hitter to left in his split campaign between Pittsburgh and Boston in 2008 and was well below average to left in 2007. It would be shocking to see Bay put up two of these high octane seasons, especially in his age 30 and 31 seasons.

What we’re seeing with Bay seems to be one of the nastiest combinations of park effects, regression to the mean, aging, and simple poor luck that I can recall a power hitter encountering. It’s certainly possible that Bay has simply lost some of his pop, but right now the most likely scenario is that Bay is working through an extended slump. ZiPS projects him to add 19 more home runs before season’s end, as opposed to the 9 that his pace suggests. It’s too early to dismiss Jason Bay as a power hitter, even if he can’t replicate his awesome 2009.

October steals our hearts. After six long months we finally get to see the best from each league battle each other in three rounds of pure bliss. Every moment in October is amplified. What was routine in June becomes exceptional in October.

While October remains my favorite month of the year, April doesn’t lag far behind. Not just because it’s my birth month, but also because it is something of a mystical time for baseball. Every team has a chance. Players post ridiculous numbers, making us wonder if a strong start is really the year, or if it’s just another statistical fluke. We saw no shortage of that in April 2010.

Plenty of players jumped off to hot starts. I noted two in particular earlier in the season. Both have dropped off in the past few weeks, so let’s check in on them.

Austin Jackson

When I wrote about Jackson in late April, the point wasn’t to predict a regression. Nearly all of his stats made it clear that such a correction was coming. Rather, the point was that Jackson could avoid completely dropping off if he made a few adjustments. Again, nothing groundbreaking — young players have to make adjustments all the time as the league gets a better read on them. With Jackson I mainly dealt with his walk and strikeout rates.

As expected his BABIP has come down from the .520 mark he was sporting in April. His current .418 BABIP will likely come down a bit, too. But, as before, he can make adjustments so that the regression doesn’t kill his overall production. For instance, he shouldn’t see his BABIP dip too far if he keeps hitting line drives at the high clip he has achieved. He was at 31.9 percent in late April, and stands at 29.2 percent right now, which remains impressive.

Jackson has made the biggest adjustment in his strikeout rate. In late April he was striking out at a ridiculous clip, 32.9 percent of his PA — 32 in 86 PA, just to keep things in perspective. Since then he has been to the plate 181 times and has struck out just 35 times, or 19 percent of his PA. It looks like he won’t be breaking Mark Reynolds’s single-season strikeout record, after all.

In terms of power, though, Jackson hasn’t replicated his early-season success. Through those first 86 PA he had an ISO of .145 on the power of five doubles, two triples, and a homer. In the following 181 PA he has plenty of doubles, 12, but just one triple and no homers, dragging  his ISO down to .104 on the season. One of the biggest concerns the Yankees had with Jackson was his ability to hit for power. It seems that his other tools compensated, but the lack of power has been real in his debut season.

As it was back in April, if the season ended today Jackson would still likely be among the AL Rookie of the Year candidates. His biggest competition to date: teammate Brennan Boesch, who is at 1.6 WAR to Jackson’s 1.9, despite having 103 fewer plate appearances.

Andruw Jones

In mid-May I saw something peculiar. Andruw Jones had basically the same numbers as last year at the same point. In 2009 his wOBA through 111 PA was .424, and was at .427 in 2010 through the exact same number of plate appearances. The rest of 2009 didn’t go so well for Jones, as he tumbled and ended up with a .338 wOBA, most of which came from the DH spot. Would Jones, I wondered, find the same fate this year?

In his last 63 PA Jones is just 6 for 51. He’s keeping his walks up, which is a plus, and three of those six hits have been for extra bases. Still, six hits in 63 PA just won’t cut it. His triple slash in that span: .118/.270/.216. His triple slash in the 62 PA after his first 111 in 2009: .193/.242/.491. There isn’t much similarity in that, as Jones hit five homers during that span last year. Yet we saw his crash continue. From PA 174 through the end of the season Jones hit .179/.297/.388.

In his defense, Jones has been battling a few injuries which has probably left him worse off at the plate. Still, it’s hard to ignore the similarities between the two seasons even if they don’t look identical right now. He started the season strong, which encouraged talk that he was back to the Andruw we all knew in Atlanta. Yet after a hot start his production began to fall. He still has time this season to get back on track. Given his record, however, I wouldn’t put money on that.

Overview

The Marlins are once again pacing for a record around .500 — an impressive feat, given a payroll shy of $50 million. Nevertheless, the Marlins are still in fourth place in the National League East and seem unlikely to make a real run to catch up and sustain the pace being set by Phillies and Braves. They could certainly add someone in a similar capacity to the Nick Johnson trade last deadline, but odds are, they’ll hold steady or even move a part or two.

Buy or Sell?

Sell seems like the better option since the Marlins could cash in on a few pieces getting too expensive. Dan Uggla, Cody Ross, and Ricky Nolasco will enter their final year of team control next season; meanwhile, Jorge Cantu and Wes Helms will become free agents (as will Nate Robertson, but the Marlins are only paying him $400K).

Cantu seems like the most likely to be moved. Gaby Sanchez and Wes Helms make him a bit redundant and he’s not going to bring back Type-A compensation in free agency.

Untouchables on the current roster include Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, Josh Johnson, and Anibal Sanchez given how he’s pitched. Everyone else seems like a potential trade target — especially some of the Marlins’ relievers. Leo Nunez will probably stay in place, although they should listen to offers, but rejuvenation project Clay Hensley could lead to an interesting dilemma when it comes to weighing their confidence in his ability versus the guarantee of a return before a potential collapse.

The rest of the Marlins’ roster is a collection of young players and useful and (more importantly) cheap cogs without the kind of trade value that makes them must-goes.

On The Farm

Here’s where the Marlins shine. They just promoted Stanton, but Logan Morrison seems like the future at first base. 2007’s first-round pick, third baseman Matt Dominguez, is currently in Double-A Jacksonville. Meanwhile Triple-A New Orleans holds the team’s top two outfield prospects in Bryan Peterson and Scott Cousins. New Orleans also features a number of former major leaguers who could step in if the Marlins feel uncomfortable burning service time in a losing effort down the stretch.

As for pitching, the Marlins have a drove. There’s Chad James, Ryan Tucker, Brad Hand, Jhan Martinez, and yes, even old familiar names like Andrew Miller and Brett Sinkbeil – although it’s important to note neither is particularly close to their former prospect selves … Sinkbeil especially, he’s essentially a replacement level reliever at the Triple-A level.

The two spots the Marlins have organizational weakness at are the two that form the middle infield, although one could list catcher depending on their evaluation of Kyle Skipworth.

Budget

Just as Ambrose Bierce once wrote, “War is God’s way of teaching Americans geography”, the trade deadline is baseball’s way of teaching Marlins fans how the economic aspect of player development works. Hate him or … well, just slightly dislike him, Jeffrey Loria sticks to his guns when it comes to spending money. All success is credit to the Marlins’ front office’s creativity and ability to strike gold when they’re paying in tinfoil. Something that doesn’t appear likely to change within the next six months.

Overview

Things are looking up in Pittsburgh, but that hasn’t manifested itself on the playing field this season. The Pirates are 25-39 and sit 11 games back of the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central. The team has simply been inept in every phase of the game, scoring only 3.4 runs per game while allowing 4.9. The main bright spots for this team have been budding star CF Andrew McCutchen and rising 1B Garrett Jones, both of whom are hitting well. Each is on pace for a 3+ WAR season, with McCutchen looking at a potential 5 WAR campaign.

Buy Or Sell?

The obvious answer is to sell; what’s less obvious is who to sell. Octavio Dotel is an interesting flamethrowing reliever, but he’s performed right around replacement level this season. Akinori Iwamura likely doesn’t have a future with this Pirates team, but given his terrible performance this year, the return for him would be minimal, and similarly for Ryan Church and Brendan Donnelly. Right now, this Pirates team really doesn’t have anybody to sell.

Paul Maholm has been the team’s best starting pitcher this season, posting a 4.28 FIP in nearly 80 innings. He’s locked up for 2011 at $5.75M and the Pirates hold a $9.75M club option on him for the 2012 season. That’s a team-friendly contract, and not one the Pirates should be looking to sell. McCutchen and Jones clearly aren’t going anywhere. One possibility may be catcher Ryan Doumit, who is projected to post a .350 wOBA for the rest of the season. Doumit is under contract for 2011 and the Pirates hold options on his 2012 and 2013 season, but he’s already 29 years old and they may wish to make room for Tony Sanchez. Also, Doumit’s defense is suspect, as 47 of 51 attempted basestealers have been successful this season.

If the Pirates can get any sort of return for their struggling veterans, that has to be the choice for Neal Huntington, and he certainly hasn’t been afraid to do that in recent years, acquiring over 100 years of service time through trades, as he acquired players like Tim Alderson for aging major leaguers such as Freddy Sanchez.

On The Farm

The Pirates have already dipped into their farm system this season, calling up SP Brad Lincoln and OF Jose Tabata. Pedro Alvarez, the former #2 overall pick, is likely next. The Pirates have all kinds of talent waiting around in the minor leagues now, including the aforementioned Tony Sanchez and Tim Alderson.

The Pirates had the second overall pick once again in 2010 and selected high school RHP Jameson Taillon. Taillon has tremendous upside, and would be yet another boost to a growing farm system if Huntington and co. can sign him.

Budget

Attendance in Pittsburgh is very low despite PNC Park being one of the most beautiful stadiums in the big leagues. The Pirates payroll dropped below $40 million for the first time since 2007 this season. One would think that, if the chips fall correctly, the Pirates could spend this winter, but Huntington would have to believe that the team would immediately be in a setting to compete for a division title. I’m not sure that’s going to happen by next season, and so Huntington will likely be content with building with all the young talent on his roster and in his system for 2011. Any salary that the Pirates can clear this trade deadline has to be considered gravy.

Overview

Both the 2008 and 2009 seasons seemed hopeful for Cleveland at the outset (I certainly thought both of those teams would do well), but fell apart rather quickly, with the team trading a homegrown ace (CC Sabathia in 2008 and Cliff Lee in 2009) in both seasons to bolster their farm system. As of this morning, the Indians are at the bottom of the standings, but unlike the previous two seasons, 2010 was acknowledged to be a rebuilding year. The trades of those earlier seasons have significantly added to the team’s young talent, and the real question is how far off Cleveland is from contending after 2010.

Buy or Sell?

The answer is “Sell.” Cleveland may not have the big prizes as in the past, but this is to the organization’s credit, as those prizes have already brought in much of their current hope for the future. Some of their veterans are (realistically speaking) currently untrade-able: Travis Hafner and his contract are in Cleveland to stay, and even if the front office had been inclined to see what they could get back for Grady Sizemore this season (and given his team-friendly contract, it’s not clear that they should), his surgery nixed that option.

He’s not Sabathia or Lee, but Fausto Carmona isn’t a bad trade chip. No one should expect him to return to his 2007 form, but in 2010 he has gotten the walks under control. ZiPS RoS projects a 4.58 FIP for him going forward, and, while not spectacular, that does have value for a contender needing to shore up the middle or back of their rotation. Carmona is only guaranteed the prorated remainder of $4.9 million this season and $6.1 million in 2011, and his contract includes club options for 2012-2014 that could potentially add value to this deal. Worse pitchers go for more money on the free agent market, so if Cleveland feels that a) the young pitching in their system will be ready by next season and/or b) Carmona won’t be good enough to justify his place in the rotation when the club is ready to contend, they can probably get decent value for him on the trade market. He likely wouldn’t bring back a future superstar, but probably something still quite useful.

There are other pieces here, but none that have as much value. Jake Westbrook has similar value on the field to Carmona, but given his past health problems and being owed much more money ($11 million guaranteed in 2010, the last year of his contract), doesn’t have much value on the trade market. While ZiPS has faith in Kerry Wood’s ability going forward, his past and present health issues, his dreadful performance so far in 2010, and big contract ($10.5 million in 2010) means that he doesn’t have much value, either.

The Indians do have positional role-players that could potentially help teams. Jhonny Peralta isn’t a defensive wizard, and probably has about a league-average bat, but there are teams who could use him, and he has a (you guessed it) very team-friendly contract with a club option for 2011. Smart and inexpensive off-season acquisitions Austin Kearns and Russell Branyan have shown they can both still play, and while they wouldn’t bring much back, Cleveland should at least see what they can get for these two older players who aren’t under contract for next season.

On the Farm

Beyond the Box Score’s pre-season aggregate farm system rankings placed Cleveland’s system at #3 in the majors, and acclaimed catcher prospect Carlos Santana made his debut just this past Friday. Among others, Michael Brantley should be ready to start by next season at the latest, Matt LaPorta should be back at some point this season, and Lonnie Chisenhall is an exciting young third baseman. There is also good reason to think that Justin Masterson won’t be the only young pitcher with promise in the rotation in 2011 or 2012. Prospects fail, of course, and every team could use more depth in the minors, but Cleveland has as much or more talent on the farm than most other teams in the majors.

Budget

Cleveland’s payroll dropped significantly from 2009 to 2010, and probably shouldn’t be expected to go higher in 2011. While there are arbitration raises coming, as well as contractual raises for Hafner, Sizemore, and other players like Carmona (if he is still around), big contracts like those of Westbrook and Wood are coming off the books, so there is a chance that the team might have a bit of money to spend on free agents if they decide that their young talent (potentially supplemented by this season’s trades) is ready to make a run in 2011. Cleveland’s present may be bleak, but the front office has set themselves up well for the future, and it will be interesting to see if that future arrives in 2011 or later.