Swinging Strike Percentage (SwStr%) is now available in all the leaderboards.

Matt Murton has a career line of .286/.352/.436 in 1,058 MLB plate appearances. That’s a 105 wRC+, and by all accounts, he’s a legitimate defender in LF, although likely not quite as good as his +21 UZR/150 suggests. In over 400 plate appearances at AAA Colorado Springs, Murton had a park and luck adjusted .322/.392/.492 line. Take a player like that, especially platooned against left handed batters, and you have a major league average player, if not better.

Matt Murton is currently playing for the Hanshin Tigers of the highest Japanese professional league, the NPB. His contract this year calls for a $1 million salary, with a $500,000 signing bonus.

Unsurprisingly, Murton is absolutely raking. Through 262 plate appearances, Murton ranks 12th in the entire league with an .893 OPS, with an overall line of .343/.393/.500. Murton’s 8 HRs and 12 doubles would put him on a pace for 18 HRs and 27 2Bs in a 600 plate appearance season. As our own Patrick Newman stated in one of his posts answering questions about Asian baseball, it is generally accepted that the talent level in the NPB is somewhere between AAA and MLB. Even though Murton’s line is a little batting-average heavy, he continues to show that he can hit very well in talented leagues.

Still, we may not see Murton back in the United States any time soon, as the Hanshin Tigers hold a club option on him for 2011. Unfortunately, Murton is already 28 and as such would end up playing two of his prime years out of the Major Leagues. By the time he’s able to return to the States, it may be too late for Murton to truly latch on with a team and show that he can perform at a Major League level.

There are certainly teams in need of outfield help who could’ve used Matt Murton this season. The Orioles have given Corey Patterson over 100 plate appearances this season. Nate McLouth and Melky Cabrera both have sub-.285 wOBAs for the Braves. The Giants gave Eugenio Velez over 50 PAs before jettisoning him. The Royals have played Mitch Maier, Rick Ankiel, Scott Podsednik, and Willie Bloomquist in their outfield. The list goes on, containing poor outfielder after poor outfielder who have gotten chances and, in some cases, guaranteed money, to produce at a very low level.

Sometimes, teams just miss on a player. The Rockies didn’t have room for him, and the Athletics had a crowded outfield when he was in their system. However, there’s hardly an excuse for the other 28 MLB teams in allowing the Hanshin Tigers and their $1.5 million deal draw a league average player into Japan. As Murton continues to produce, this time overseas, we can only wonder what could have happened stateside.

Thanks to Patrick Newman for help with information in this piece.

The 2011 draft class has a lot of good hitters, including the likely top overall draft pick, but the depth of the pitching, and the number of college pitchers taken in the first round next year will be the talk of the spring. There are just an unbelievable number of players that have already achieved Division I success, and have the caliber of stuff that big league teams are looking for. Since we started with Rendon this morning, I want to hit the best off the bat in this piece, too.

Right-Handed Starting Pitcher

Best Players: Gerrit Cole, UCLA, 2.92 FIP, 11.63 K/9, 4.17 BB/9. Taylor Jungmann, Texas, 3.79 FIP, 9.78 K/9, 3.20 BB/9.

While Cole is the best pitcher in this draft class, it would have been unfair to sink Jungmann into the article, as he’s a likely top ten overall pick next year, too. There was a great article detailing Jungmann’s arsenal at Prospect Insider this spring: 92-96 mph with the fastball (he’s touched 99 in the past), power 80 mph breaking ball, and a developing “screw-change”. He has the perfect pitcher’s build, and under Augie Garrido at Texas, the best experience that three years in college can buy.

However, the diamond of this class is Cole, which probably kills Yankees fans after he spurned the Bombers in the 2008 draft. Cole appeared to have a deal after New York took him in the first round, but he had a late change of heart, and wanted to experience college. UCLA head coach John Savage is also one of the renowned pitching instructors in the nation. Cole has made significant strides under Savage to get his fastball under command and to add a changeup to an arsenal good enough to succeed with two pitches. He’s regularly 95-97 mph, touches 99 often, and has shown occasionally plus movement in the past. His slider is inconsistently fantastic, and at 85-87 mph, it’s coming at a hitter hard.

Cole is the prohibitive favorite to be drafted second overall next June, especially considering that one last fall with Savage should tighten the screws on his entire arsenal.

Left-Handed Starting Pitcher

Best Player: Matt Purke, TCU, 3.37 FIP, 11.52 K/9, 2.55 BB/9.

The only draft-eligible sophomore in this series because of the lack of clarity about who exactly is eligible and who is not, but Purke’s eligibility has been understood since he spurned the Rangers last year. Purke has been better than anyone could have expected in his freshman season with the Horned Frogs, with his 2.55 walk rate really speaking to his polish. Purke is 91-94 mph with ease from the left side, and is capable of amping it up into the mid 90s. His power curveball is absolute death on left-handed hitters, as the guys at CollegeSplits tweeted last week: “0 HR, 15 K/9, insane 23/3 g/f out ratio vLH.” And with an improving change-up, Purke should be better suited to get his $6 million bonus demands than he was a year ago.

Relief Pitcher

Best Player: John Stilson, Texas A&M, 2.53 FIP, 12.99 K/9, 2.62 BB/9. The 2.53 FIP doesn’t really do it justice, as Stilson had a 0.80 ERA in 79 innings with the Aggies, striking out 114 batters. A junior college transfer, Stilson went from pitching in the low-90s in junior college, to regularly throwing 97-99 mph in the Aggies bullpen. He has a knockout slider, and relentlessly attacks hitters. We didn’t see a reliever taken in the first round this year, but in 2011, we might see one taken in the top ten picks.

After the break: a whole lot more.

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Episode Thirty-Four
In which the panel is all maven-y.

Headlines
The Draft Happened Real Hard
… and other true truths!

Featuring
Marc Hulet, Prospect Maven (Canadian Sector)
Bryan Smith, Prospect Maven (American Sector)

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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Don’t look now Dodger fans, but the ghost of the Casey Blake trade of 2008 is coming back to haunt.

Blake was traded from the Cleveland Indians to the Los Angeles Dodgers at mid-season in a deal that had me scratching my head from the moment in was announced. In return for Blake, the Indians received breakout prospect Carlos Santana and minor league reliever Jonathan Meloan. Perhaps the Dodgers did not feel that the catcher’s success was for real and was a result of playing in the potent California League.

Blake was by no means a terrible acquisition for the Dodgers. The veteran third baseman has accumulated 6.7 WAR during his less than two full seasons in Los Angeles. He produced the third highest WAR (4.6) amongst NL third basemen in ’09, and the seventh highest in the Majors. However, he’ll turn 37 years old this season and was, at the time of the trade, and impending free agent (who was later re-signed to a three-year, $17.5 million contract that also has an option for 2012).

Santana, on the other hand, has the chance to be one of the top offensive catchers in the American League for quite some time. Now we’re not talking Joe Mauer (8 WAR) good, but think Victor Martinez or Brian McCann good (4-5 WAR a year).

Less than two weeks ago, Indians GM Mark Shapiro was asked about a potential Santana promotion and he told a local Cleveland newspaper:

“While he continues to flourish offensively, defensively he continues to be a work in progress,” said Shapiro. “His offensive ability is so strong that we feel it’s important to utilize every day possible in the minor leagues to develop his defense. His game calling and leadership have made strides, but his throwing has to improve.”

I’m not sure what changed in eight days, or if it was just a smoke screen, but Santana will make his MLB debut tonight against Washington. Shapiro’s stated concerns about the young catcher’s defense are justified. He’s a converted fielder who has only been behind the dish since 2007 after spending much of his time in the outfield and at third base prior to the move. Over the past three seasons, Santana’s caught-stealing success rate has been 23%, 30%, and 23% so far this season in triple-A. Between ’07 and ’09, he allowed 45 passed balls but had given up just one so far this season, which suggests some improvement in the area of receiving. Santana has also reportedly improved his game-calling skills.

On offense, there is little to not like. At the time of his promotion, he had an OPS of 1.044 and his triple-slash line was .316/.447/.597 in 196 at-bats. Santana also currently has a walk rate of 18% and an ISO rate of .280, so he’s displayed both patience and power. Those rates are not out of line with what he’s posted over the past three seasons. The 24-year-old switch-hitter also does a nice job of limiting his strikeouts and his rate currently sits at 16%. It’s not often that you find a catcher that hits for power and strikes out less than he walks (and can hit more than .300).

In his career, he’s been very good against both right-handed and left-handed pitching. He has a career OPS of .960 against lefties and .879 against righties. A pitcher cannot take his eye off of Santana on the base paths, either. The catcher has gone 18-for-24 in stolen base attempts over the past three seasons.

Fellow rookie Lou Marson, obtained from Philly last year in the Cliff Lee trade, was demoted to triple-A to make room for Santana. Former Minnesota Twin and Florida Marlin Mike Redmond will continue to serve as the back-up in Cleveland. Marson, 24, did himself no favors by hitting .191/.268/.262 with a .253 wOBA in 141 at-bats.

With the promotion of Santana, we have now seen the majority of top 2009-10 prospects reach the Majors. Here is FanGraphs’ Top 10 prospects list, which was released prior to the 2010 season.

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
3. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
4. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
6. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers
7. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians
8. Jesus Montero, C/1B, New York Yankees
9. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

As you can see, six of the 10 players are now in the Majors. Of those still in the minors, Brown could be the next prospect called up, if Philly can find room for him. If not, then Alvarez could beat him to The Show. Either way, a lot of talent has already been promoted to the Majors this season and the Top 100 prospects list is going to have a real different look to it in 2011.

With the callups of some possible stars in Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, and Jose Tabata, I wanted to take a look at a few guys who, although may have been highly touted, underperformed in the minor leagues relative to their major league track record.

2B Robinson Cano
MiLB: .278/.331/.425
MLB: .312/.345/.490

Back in 2005, the Yankees had had enough with the struggling Tony Womack and decided to shake things up. Lots of pundits and fans were saying Robinson wasn’t ready, and that Cashman/Torre were rushing the kid too quickly. Cano hit pretty well for a rookie at second base (despite his walk rate of just 3.0%). Since then, he’s been one of the better players in baseball.

SS Hanley Ramirez
MiLB: .297/.352/.430
MLB: .314/.385/.526

I often argue with my Red Sox friends over whether or not the Red Sox should take back the Hanley-Beckett deal if offered if they would also have to give up their World Series in 2007. Flags fly forever, but Hanley has hit forever, crushing major league pitching at a rate much better than his minor league line. In his last season before being called up, Hanley hit just .271/.335/.385. Since then, it’s been Cooperstown-worthy stuff.

1B/OF Garrett Jones
MiLB: .258/.312/.450
MLB: .271/.346/.490

Despite being a big guy, the power was never really there for Jones during his minor league career. During his first five years in the minors, his career high in slugging was .423. However, he broke out in 2004 in Double-A, slugging 31 homers. After some more farm time, Jones finally got a shot last season, and has been solid for the Buccos.

CL Joakim Soria
MiLB: 4.05 ERA, 2.43 K:BB
MLB: 2.13 ERA, 3.98 K:BB

The Mexicutioner was snagged by the Royals in 2006 via the Rule V draft and immediately became a force for Kansas City. Despite medicore control and so-so results in the minors, Soria quickly became one of the best closers in the game by utilizing his wicked off-speed stuff (curveball, slider, and changeup).

2B Placido Polanco
MiLB: .279/.317/.344
MLB: .304/.348/.415

When you look at the numbers Polanco put up in the minors, nobody would blame you for thinking that he was destined to be a utility man at best. His lack of patience and power meant he would rely heavily on his BABIP, and he just didn’t ever hit for much average to cancel out his other problems. During his time in the major leagues, the story has changed. Polanco can be relied on to his .300+ each year, and with a decent amount of pop too.

SP Johan Santana
MiLB: 4.78 ERA, 2.69 K:BB
MLB: 3.10 ERA, 3.60 K:BB

Like Soria, Santana was another product of the Rule V draft, with the Astros as the poor suckers who let him go. The Marlins actually took Santana first overall in the V, but a pre-arranged deal had him sent to Minnesota for $50,000. Santana started out as a rocky pitcher in the Twins pen, but since then, well, you know the story.

I love minor league baseball, and we live in an age in which it’s more popular than ever. Although there are some feel good stories in here, there also are some developmental things that aren’t too surprising (i.e. H-Ram developing power). Still, you never know if a major league career can just take off despite so-so minor league numbers, and these guys show why.

Chris Resop knew that last night was going to be his last in Triple-A. Signed to a minor league contract by the Braves this spring, his agent included an unusual out clause in the deal; if he is not in the major leagues by June 15th, he is free to contact other major league clubs and ask for a job. If any of them are willing to put him on the major league roster, the Braves surrender his rights. If multiple teams are willing to roster him, then the Braves will select where he goes. In some ways, it’s like Resop has to be put through waivers on Tuesday.

Given how well he’s pitched for Gwinnett and the velocity on his fastball, it was a near certainty that he would find a team that would be more than happy to give him a shot next week. However, he erased any doubts last night, and may have created enough demand to allow the Braves to trade him for something of value before next week rolls around.
His performance last night – 9 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 0 walks, 8 strikeouts. The one blemish on his otherwise perfect evening was promptly doubled off on the next play, allowing Resop to face the minimum in his complete game shutout. He faced 27 hitters and recorded 27 outs. Hard to do much better than that.

So now, an interesting question arises – what’s the market value for a 27-year-old with a good arm who is pitching well in Triple-A but has little history of success, and is in his first year as a starting pitcher? Originally drafted as an outfielder by the Marlins in 2001, he was converted to the bullpen in 2003, and made his way to the majors as a power reliever. The last few years have brought elbow surgery and some not-overly-impressive time with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. There were few things less expected than Resop dominating as a starting pitcher, but dominate he has.

Posting 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings while simultaneously running a GB% of nearly 50 percent – those are the kinds of numbers that open eyes. The walks are a little high at 3.3 BB/9, and the big platoon splits should give us pause before we project him for stardom, but Resop has shown enough to be worth a flyer for a team that can afford to gamble on the 5th starter job.

In all likelihood, more than one team will “claim” Resop next Tuesday, so the Braves will have some bargaining power to trade him before then. They could theoretically use him in relief, displacing Jesse Chavez, but the rest of their bullpen has been so good that he wouldn’t log many important innings and would generally not have much of an impact. But regardless of what Atlanta decides to do, Resop will certainly be in the majors next Tuesday. He’s earned his shot.

The draft year has three seasons: (1) Summer, when college players play in leagues with good talent distributions and wooden bats and high school players showcase their talent at an event every weekend, (2) Fall, when prospects work semi-privately with their coaches to clean up the unpolished aspects of their game and (3) Spring, when a player puts the finishing touches on his resume before the draft. With the college season and high school year both about to close, the time for reflecting on the 2010 draft class has closed, and scouts across all 30 organizations are shifting their focus to the 2011 draft crop. It’s a group unanimously more favored than 2010, with a chance at becoming one of the most adored draft classes in history.

In the first in a series of 2011 Draft previews we’ll have around here (June, August, February, June), I’m going to look at how the college crop looks from a year out. We’ll update that with the summer breakouts in August, when we’ll be able to add the high school talent to our follow lists. I will start with the position players, with the insanely deep pitching class coming this afternoon.

Corner Infield

Best Player: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice, .394/.530/.801. I wanted to start with the likely 2011 #1 overall pick, who followed up the best freshman season in Rice history (.388/.461/.702), with probably the best offensive season the school has ever seen. A very good defender and good baserunner, Rendon does not have a discernible hole in his game. His 21.5 BB% is more reflective of the fear he strikes in opposing teams, and rightfully so. Rendon is worthy of Orioles fans to begin rooting against their team.

Middle Infield

Best Player: Levi Michael, IF, UNC, .346/.480/.575. Michael skipped his final season of high school to attend North Carolina a year earlier, but his polish is such that you wouldn’t guess he’s a year younger than his peers. Probably a second baseman in the end, Michael cut down his strikeout rate (12.1%) by nine percent, and upped his walk rate (15.7%) by seven perfect as a sophomore. Michael is a good base runner (20-for-22 this season), has power in his bat, and will stick in the middle infield.

Catcher

Best Player: Jett Bandy, C/3B, Arizona, .354/.444/.538. By far the thinnest position of the draft class, I don’t think there is a college catcher that will be drafted on the first day. However, Bandy has an invitation to play for USA Baseball this summer, and if the 6-foot-4 slugger proves that he can stick behind the plate, he has a chance. Bandy threw out 24-of-67 runners this year, while hitting 23 doubles and posting a 10.3 K%.

Outfield

Best Player: Jackie Bradley Jr., CF, South Carolina, .367/.468/.585. Those of you that follow Aaron Fitt on the college beat at Baseball America know his affinity for Bradley Jr., who is the best combination of tools and performance in this draft class. Bradley Jr. is a very smooth baseball player that has never been out of sorts in the SEC, and has just started to tap into his power potential. The Gamecocks were simply not the same when he was out of the lineup with a broken hand earlier this season.

After the jump, you get 950 more words, and a few dozen more players at each position to start thinking about.

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“Santana”

That was Johan Santana himself before the season, when asked who is the best pitcher in the NL East.

It’s hard to imagine that Santana would answer in the same way now. Roy Halladay of the rival Phillies leads the NL in FIP at 2.32 and xFIP at 2.93 and threw a perfect game. Josh Johnson of the Marlins has struck out a batter per inning and is second and third in FIP and xFIP respectively. Even Santana’s Mets teammate Mike Pelfrey has outperformed him this year, as his 3.20 FIP and 3.80 xFIP both lead the team.

It’s not like Santana is having a bad season. His 2.76 ERA is supported by a 3.57 FIP, and whatever the cause, he’s doing a great job of keeping the ball in the park, only allowing six home runs on the season. However, a decline is clear when we examine his peripheral marks, and his strikeouts in particular. This is the first year of Santana’s career in which he has struck out fewer than seven batters per nine innings since 2001; 6.55 K/9 is over one strikeout per inning fewer than 2009.

His swinging strike rate is below 10% for the first time since FanGraphs began tracking the statistic in 2002. Most of this can be pinned on the fact that Santana’s two seamer has lost something. The same pitch which drew whiffs on 10.9% percent of pitches is now only drawing whiffs 3.6% of the time. Also, Santana is throwing the four seam fastball more often – 50% of the time instead of roughly 33%. This means fewer changeups and sliders, both pitches which draw far more swings and misses than the fastball.

Right now, Santana’s xFIP is at 4.49. His HR/9 rate is only 0.69 despite a very low 35.8% ground ball rate. Santana has never been fantastic at suppressing home runs, even though he did have five straight sub-1.00 HR/9 seasons with the Twins. He’s always lived through avoiding contact and drawing enough infield flies to the point that the fact that he allows a ton of fly balls doesn’t kill him.

This year, though, hitters are making more contact than ever, but Johan is surviving on BABIP luck (.268) and a career low HR/FB% (5.5). Thanks to spacious Citi Field, Santana managed to get around nine fly balls and six line drives without allowing a home run in yesterday’s start against San Diego. He was not able to get around the 23 balls in play, however, as he allowed eight hits en route to a mediocre six inning, four run performance. Santana didn’t show that ability to avoid contact which made him a perennial Cy Young contender in throughout the 2000s, striking out only one of the 29 Padres he faced.

Right now, Johan Santana looks as if he’s having a fantastic year on the surface, but signs are pointing to a harsh decline. High contact rates and low groundball rates are recipes for disaster, and that’s what Santana’s stuff is generating right now. So far, he hasn’t been burned by it, but the numbers suggest that this rosy season can’t last. And we know, for sure, that he isn’t the best pitcher in the NL East.

For a two year span beginning in 2005, Bill Hall was one of baseball’s best kept secrets. At the ages of 25 and 26, Hall combined to hit .280/.344/.525 while averaging 26 home runs and 13 stolen bases. Oh, and he did that while playing parts of four positions — mostly the left side of the infield with some center field and second base thrown in. During those years he accumulated 8.7 WAR. To date, he’s racked up 11.3 wins for his career. Needless to say, Hall’s career hasn’t quite turned out like it could have.

Yet, he’s in his first season with the Boston Red Sox and, through nearly 120 plate appearances, he’s looking sort of like his old self. You don’t even have to squint to see the similarities:

2005: .360 wOBA, .204 ISO, .336 BABIP
2006: .369 wOBA, .283 ISO, .320 BABIP
2010: .366 wOBA, .210 ISO, .317 BABIP

For the most part, 2010 has been a crude hybrid. The crux of Hall’s wOBA is being upheld by a strong walk rate which simply doesn’t reflect as well in his OPS. Still, it’s a bit soon to say the Red Sox have recaptured Hall’s magic — especially given his history of always having one insane month.

In April 2009, Hall posted a .304/.377/.522 line through 77 plate appearances. In July of 2008, Hall batted .288/.350/.548 through 80 plate appearances. There was even June of 2007, when he scorched through 104 plate appearances with slash stats of .307/.388/.523. All of those looked like maybe, just maybe, the rekindling of Hall’s fire, and they all faded quickly. The difference seems to be that this collection of good hitting from Hall is not as dependent on a high batting average on balls in play as those months were.

Given how the Sox’ roster was constructed, even if Hall cannot sustain this performance, they probably won’t regret trading Casey Kotchman for him too much.