Archive for June, 2010

Matt Belisle Is Good … Really

Of all the surprising stories this season, Matt Belisle’s rise to prominence takes the cake for least expected. The 30 year old reliever for Colorado has thrown 47 innings this season. That’s nothing extravagant; he did throw 31 innings for the Rockies last season after all. What is alarming is that he’s striking out more than one batter per inning; this from a guy who split duties between starting and relieving through most of his career and still has a career K/9 under 6.5.

Looking for a change in his pitch usage is futile. He’s throwing the same pitches at about the same rate as before, the results are just drastically improved with a heaping of added swinging strikes. Here are Belisle’s swinging strike rates this season on pitches he’s thrown more than 50 times:

FF: 9%
SL: 12.2%
CU: 16.3%

Here are the whiff rates for the same three pitches last season:

FF: 6.5%
SL: 7.7%
CU: 19.6%

Since it’s only his fastball and slider that have been affected this season, my guess, and this is clearly only a guess, is that it has something to do with sequencing. Luckily, we have the ability to easily check his pitch selection by count on his splits page. Sure enough, it seems Belisle is being far less aggressive with his fastball after getting ahead in the count.

That would seemingly be a common trend amongst pitches; after all, the mantra about establishing the fastball and all that jazz is still mentioned across quite a few telecasts on any given night; but it’s especially true for Belisle. When he gets to two strikes on a batter it’s time for the breaking stuff. On 1-2 counts he’s using his curveball nearly 50% of the time as opposed to using it only 22% last year.

Who knows whether the continued usage shakeup is the only reason or will continue to mystify hitters that oppose Belisle, but through this point in the season, he’s been pretty impressive.


The Other Great Rookie

Due to the ways service time accumulation and “super two” status works, the beginning of June saw a wide collection of the best prospects in baseball make their big league debuts. On June 8th, Stephen Strasburg and Mike Stanton were called up. The 9th brought Brad Lincoln, the 10th saw Jake Arrieta, and on the 11th, it was Carlos Santana.

Of the five guys called up in that four day span, Strasburg has obviously been the star, dominating the National League and making headlines every time he pitches. But, it’s the last of those five names that has actually performed the best since coming to the big leagues. Yes, Santana is even outplaying Mr. Strasburg.

In 16 big league games, he’s collected 17 hits. That doesn’t sound all that impressive until you realize that only five of them are singles. 12 of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases, giving him a .725 slugging percentage.

While that’s impressive, perhaps more so has been his command of the strike zone. Most young hitters struggle with breaking balls and look overmatched at times, but Santana has been anything but, drawing 12 walks in 64 plate appearances while striking out just six times. He’s only chased 20 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, putting him in the company of notable selective hitters like Kevin Youkilis.

Overall, his offensive line reads .333/.453/.725, good for a .490 wOBA. That is shockingly good on its own, but when you factor in that Santana is a catcher (who has thrown out six of 12 attempted basestealers, by the way), it takes it to another level. Santana’s total value in just over two weeks of baseball? +1.3 wins above replacement.

For a comparison, here’s his value extrapolated against Strasburg’s, both projected to a full season’s worth of playing time:

Santana: +10.2 wins per 500 PA
Strasburg: +9.5 wins per 200 IP

We limit Santana to 500 PA since he’s a catcher, and yet, he’s still outproducing Strasburg in value. This is to take nothing away from Washington’s ace, who is legitimately an amazing arm and one of the most exciting things to happen to baseball in a long, long time. However, what Santana is doing for the Indians is awfully impressive, and the comparison illustrates just how well he’s played since his arrival.

Strasburg and Jason Heyward are going to have make room – there’s yet another elite rookie in this class making a massive impact on his team from day one.


The Yahoo Fantasy Baseball API

Today, I’m going to take a look at Yahoo’s Fantasy Sports API. If any of the details are unclear, just leave a comment and we’ll clear ’em up.

The Fantasy Sports API, announced on June 2, 2010, appears to be the only published and freely available API of its kind on the web. Currently baseball and football are included in the API, with basketball and hockey coming later in the year. From here we’ll take it FAQ-style.

What is an API?
In a general sense, an API (Application Programming Interface) is a piece of software that exposes functionality for other software to leverage or integrate. More specific to the web realm, APIs allow sites and applications to retrieve and post data from external services. APIs are the glue that holds Web 2.0 together: mashup sites that incorporate a live Twitter feed or Google Map, buttons that let you “like” a blog post on Facebook, and similar things are all taking advantage of APIs.

So what does the Yahoo Fantasy Sports API do then?
In a nutshell, this API fulfills requests for information with structured data responses. So, if your app wants to know what Barry Zito did in a specific game, or the draft results of a fantasy team, it makes a call out to Yahoo’s API, and gets the requested data back in either an xml or json response. The data in either response format is the same and structured the same way, but have different uses. Xml is a markup language and superset of html, while json is an object notation designed for use with Javascript, but that can be decoded by any popular programming language. The Fantasy Sports API is primarily a read-only tool at this point, but there is an API call post transactions to a team as well.

What data is available?
I’ll admit I haven’t fully sunk my teeth into this yet, but from reading the documentation, it’s mostly metadata associated with running fantasy leagues: draft results, team rosters, ownership status, etc. Individual player stats are available, but which ones specifically isn’t included in the documentation.

Can I set it in action?
Given that the API was only released less than a month ago, there don’t seem to be many live examples yet. The only one I’ve found of a site or app using the Yahoo Fantasy Baseball API is the Pickemfirst app, which I haven’t tried since I am not participating in any fantasy leagues this year. On top of that, usage of this API is limited to non-commercial tools and applications, which may act as a deterrent to potential developers. The hobbyist community is capable of producing great things, though, so it’ll be interesting to see what emerges from the release of this API.


The Houston Astros Have a Future… No, Seriously

The Houston Astros’ top prospect Jason Castro was recalled recently and gives fans of the organization something to look forward to as he acclimatizes himself to the Major Leagues. Through five MLB games, he’s off to a nice start with a wOBA of .392. The even better news for Astros followers, though, is that there are more prospects on the way. And the one that we should be most excited about could one day throw to Castro.

Jordan Lyles, just 19, is currently performing well in double-A. The right-hander has a 3.10 FIP in 93.1 innings of work and has given up 88 hits and just 22 walks, which shows outstanding control (2.10 BB/9) for a teenager. His 85 K total places him in second place in the Texas League, 11 knockouts ahead of teammate Douglas Arguello.

There are a couple small things that Lyles can continue to work on. His ground-ball rate is just average at 44% and better worm-burning numbers could help him when he pitches at home in Houston. His numbers against left-handed batters are not too bad – in part because of a low BABIP – but his strikeout rate drops from 9.95 against righties to 6.35 K/9. This could suggest that his change-up is not an overly effective pitch against lefties – or he’s just not using it enough.

Another interesting stat with Lyles this year is his strikeout rate with runners in scoring position, which is just 4.38 – compared to 9.85 K/9 with the bases empty. This is basically the exact opposite of what you want to see; the more you put balls in play, the more likely you are to fall victim to bad luck (or bad fielding) because you don’t want to give base runners the chance to scamper home. Lyles has been lucky to this point with a .231 BABIP with RISP but that’s unlikely to hold true. The Astros prospect also had a similar statistical trend in ’09. It’s a trend that a lot of pitchers follow, but not to the extreme that Lyles has (a difference of almost 5.50 K/9).

One of the most interesting things about Lyles is that the Houston Astros organization was just about the only club that viewed the right-hander as a potential supplemental first round pick when he was selected out of a South Carolina high school and signed for just under a $1 million. He’s performed better than any other ’08 supplemental pick not names Mike Montgomery or Jake Odorizzi. Kudos to the Astros’ talent oft-maligned evaluators.

With Roy Oswalt’s and Brett Myers‘ futures up in the air as the trade deadline nears, Lyles could be positioning himself to aid the organization at some point in 2011. Both Lyles and Castro could help to breathe new life into this stagnant organization. If the organization is smart, it will look to trade both Oswalt and Myers – neither of whom will be around when the organization is ready to compete for a title, anyway – to hopefully acquire some complementary parts to build around the battery of the future.


Pair of Newcomers Powering Houston’s Pen

What happens when an already weak bullpen suffers a rash of injuries? They get fill-ins who didn’t make the major league roster in the first place, of course. The Houston Astros have realized that problem this season. Just after the season started they lost Sammy Gervacio to the DL. Tim Byrdak followed, as did Chris Sampson. Brian Moehler had to take a spot in the rotation because Bud Norris hit the DL. Even Matt Lindstrom missed time not long ago with back spasms. There wasn’t much downside to these loss, however, because aside from Lindstrom none of them were effective. The minor league replacements probably couldn’t do any worse.

In the process of replacing their injured relievers, the Astros actually found two upgrades. Both Gustavo Chacin and Wilton Lopez have pitched very well out of the pen, and have probably earned regular spots even when the wounded return from the disabled list. That might make for a few unpleasant roster cuts, but at this point the Astros have little to lose. The relievers who broke camp with the team likely won’t be around when the Astros turn around the franchise, so it’s best now to stick with the guys who are performing. Chacin and Lopez are doing exactly that.

Lopez gets most of the spotlight, and rightly so. Recalled after Gervacio’s initial injury, Lopez stumbled out of the gate, allowing two runs on three hits, including a home run, in 1.1 innings. He allowed a run in his next appearance, but, despite pitching three scoreless innings in his next two appearances, the Astros optioned him in late April. But after Byrdak got hurt in early May, the Astros invoked the Ten Day Rule and brought Lopez back to the major league team. Again he stumbled, allowing four runs in his first three appearances, but since then he has been nothing but stellar for the ‘Stros.

From May 18 through his appearance last night in Milwaukee, Lopez has allowed just six runs, five earned, in 20.2 innings. He doesn’t do this by overpowering pitchers. Instead he does two things very well. First, he keeps the ball in the park. Second, he walks almost no one. During his stay in the minors he walked just 1.2 batters per nine innings. This year he was walked just three in 30.2 innings, a BB/9 under 1.00. That helps make up for his lack of strikeouts.

Chacin had a four-year history in the majors before coming to the Astros this off-season. He came up with the Blue Jays in 2004, and pitched very well in 2005, a 3.72 ERA in 203 innings. That outperformed his peripherals a bit, so a correction was expected in 2006. Instead what we got was a series of injuries that prevented Chacin from doing much of anything in the following four years. After pitching 87.1 innings in 2006 and 27.1 innings in 2007, Chacin missed all of the following two seasons. He did pitch well for the Phillies in the minors in 2009, but could not crack the major league roster.

Yet this year Chacin has been marvelous. He’s pitched just 17.2 innings since his recall in early May, but he has not only shown excellent results, but also the peripherals to go along with them. His strikeout rate has risen dramatically, to 8.15, and he hasn’t allowed a home run all season. Of course, in 17.2 innings anything can happen, and the safe bet is for Chacin’s home run and strikeout rates to tumble a bit before the season ends. Yet if he keeps up his current trend of striking out lefties (10 of 32 faced) and inducing ground balls against righties (19 of 39 balls in play), he might continue to find some level of success out of the pen.

The one area where Chacin and Lopez have differed is in their ability to prevent inherited runners from scoring. Chacin has inherited 16 runners and has allowed seven to score, 44 percent. That matches Tyler Clippard’s rate, for comparison’s sake. Lopez, on the other hand, has excelled in this area. He has come into pitch with 22 runners on base, and has allowed just one of them to score. So while Chacin has the better rate stats (3.06 ERA, 2.51 FIP vs Lopez’s 3.52, 2.97), Lopez’s performance stands above Chacin’s because of his ability to pitch with runners on base. For a bullpen that allows a ton of baserunners, Lopez has been a boon.

Relief pitchers, we know, tend to realize inconsistent results. They pitch in such short bursts that the random nature of baseball works against them just as sometimes it works in their favor. It’s no guarantee that either Lopez or Chacin continues this performance throughout the season, never mind both of them. But in the moment they’re helping out not only an ailing relief corps, but also an ineffective one. With Chacin and Lopez pitching behind Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon, the Astros have a little hope for victory when their starters leave with a lead. It won’t vault them into contention, but it will at least help them win a few games that their original bullpen would otherwise have blown.


Counterpoint: Why Branyan, Why Now?

Yesterday, Jack Moore gave us a compelling, analytical, and thoughtful defense of the Russell Branyan trade:

The theory behind the Branyan trade – acquiring wins in a down season at a low cost in order to further development and, more importantly, increase revenues – appears solid. What it really depends on is if the Mariners’ evaluation of the prospects involved is correct. If, as the Mariners seem to think, Carrera and Diaz are nothing more than organizational depth, the trade is absolutely the right move, as the wins this season very well could increase potential payroll in seasons to come, and typically, that will mean more wins as well. If it turns out that one of these two prospects is a legitimate Major League talent, then trading that future value for a gain in this lost season is the incorrect move.

Good stuff, and I am not one to doubt the scouting skills of Jack Z and his great staff in Seattle. However, this one is certainly a head scratcher, and after thinking on it, I just can’t find myself in favor of this deal.

I understand the concept of wanting to create an atmosphere of winning, especially for young players and a passionate fan base, even if it means a marginal sacrifice. However, while Branyan could certainly be worth 2.0 WAR for the Mariners going forward, he might stink. He may be worth -1.0 WAR, hitting terribly and playing bad defense. Now I’m not saying that it’s likely, but certainly possible.

The difference, however, is that Branyan’s contribution to the 2010 Mariners, whether it be -3 or 3 wins, will not be the tipping point in their playoff hopes. Their season is pretty much over in terms of playoff competition, so his actual on-field contribution is pretty irrelevant. While the players Seattle gave up weren’t exactly blue chip prospects, their potential value is one that could be of service to the Mariners much more so than Branyan’s current value.

Ezequiel Carrera was ranked as the Mariners’ 12th-best Prospect by John Sickels this past off season, with Sickels writing that Carrera is a, “Speed demon, hits for average, draws walks, good glove, no power, future reserve outfielder but a useful one.” That certainly isn’t an outright endorsement, but Carrera has the potential to give the Mariners something in the long term. With similar comments, Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus rated him 14th in the M’s system. He’s currently hitting .268/.339/.315 in Triple-A as a 23-year-old, nothing too shabby. Baseball America rated him as the Fastest Baserunner in the M’s system, as well as having the Best Strike Zone Discipline. If he plays a solid defense like Sickels said, he could bring some value.

The Mariners also gave up SS Juan Diaz, who was hitting .295/.345/.433 in High-A ball. It’s an offensive-heavy league, no doubt, but at 21 years old, it’s tough to be too down on those numbers. If you don’t believe he can hit, put him in Double-A and ask him to sink or swim.

These two prospects are no lock to ever see a Major League clubhouse outside of Spring Training, but they still have potential for decent upsides, or at least to be used as trading chips when the Mariners are more competitive in (hopefully, for Dave Cameron’s sake) the near future.

I know this may seem cliche, and almost unfair, but I need to see something more quantifiable than “creating a winning atmosphere” as a reason for trading for Branyan. Branyan could destroy the baseball, and he could be terrible, with the greater likelihood somewhere in between. Still, as said earlier, his production won’t mean much tangibly.

Why else don’t I like this deal? Because there are other, cheaper options available. I wrote about one of them in early May, saying that with “nobody else carrying the load, Jack Z should give Gary Sheffield a chance.” Look, if you want to argue about whether or not Sheffield will hit at Safeco, fine. But the larger point still remains: there are free agents out there that can be had, for cheap, that could put up similar numbers to Branyan (i.e. Elijah Dukes). Even if Sheffield or Dukes would only put up 1 WAR, whereas Branyan puts up 3, is the difference that significant to give up two prospects and spend more money?

If Jack Z goes ahead and spins Branyan as a larger package involving Cliff Lee, I’ll take back every word I said. I don’t think this deal is a terrible one, but just one I don’t see very much reason to make if I’m the Mariners.


What the Colorado Rockies Should Do

Overview

As they head into play against the Padres tonight, the Rockies are currently in fourth place in the NL West, five games behind the division leaders. With Troy Tulowitzki on the disabled list, the team has gone into something of a holding pattern to see if they can stay in the race until he returns, but I think that may be a mistake.

Buy Or Sell

The Rockies are very much contenders. They’re a high quality team with some good players, and while they’re five games out of first place, the Padres are almost certainly going to perform worse in the second half than they have so far. The Rockies should absolutely be buyers, and they should be buying sooner than later in order to maximize the amount of wins that a new acquisition can add to their roster.

There are essentially two glaring problems with the team, filling in for their star shortstop notwithstanding – both spots on the right side of the infield. Todd Helton’s power has vanished, and he’s posting a .307 wOBA, simply not good enough for a first baseman who spends half his time in Coors Field. The man playing next to him, meanwhile, Clint Barmes, has been even worse at the plate, posting a .289 wOBA. The lack of offense from these two spots have created problems for the Rockies.

One of those problems is fixable internally. The Rockies have too many outfielders, except one of them isn’t defensively capable and could be a more valuable player at first base – Brad Hawpe. He was primarily a first baseman in the minors, but was shifted to the outfield because Helton had the position locked down. By moving Hawpe to first base, they could drastically improve their outfield defense and get a better bat in the line-up than what Helton is giving them on a regular basis.

The second base issue can probably only be solved by going outside the organization. Barmes is a decent utility player, but he shouldn’t be starting on a team that has World Series aspirations. The team should be shopping heavily for a middle infielder who can handle second base full time and provide an offensive lift, especially if they can find that in a right-handed bat.

The obvious fit, if they can convince the Marlins that they’re out of the race, is Dan Uggla. He’s a consistent +3 to +4 win player with power and patience who would thrive in Colorado, and at $8 million this year and due for another arbitration raise in the winter, he’s too pricey by Florida’s standards.

There are lesser second base options available as well, but Uggla is the natural fit, and you have to imagine that Dan O’Dowd and Larry Beinfest will have a conversation or two during July.

On The Farm

The Rockies have some quality pitching prospects, always useful chips when trying to make a deal, especially with Florida. From Jhoulys Chacin to Esmil Rogers and Christian Friedrich, there are several good arms making their way towards the majors. Given their rotation depth, the Rockies could afford to part with one of these guys in pursuit of an impact player.

Things are not quite as rosy on the position player front, but the team has so much young talent on the major league roster that it’s not a huge problem.

Budget

Colorado isn’t rolling in cash, but they do have some financial flexibility going forward. They have just over $50 million in committed contracts for 2010, and their only significant arbitration cases will be with Barmes and Jason Hammel. Barmes is a non-tender candidate, so assuming the Rockies decline Hawpe’s option, they should have enough room in the budget to be able to fit another impact guy on the roster, such as Uggla.

By locking up Ubaldo Jimenez and Tulowitzki early for bargain rates, the team has given themselves a good foundation of which to build off. Even though they’re in fourth place, I’d like to see the Rockies take advantage of that and make a bold move to win both this year and next.


What the Cubs Must Do

Like Carlos Zambrano, I have reached my boiling point with the Cubs organization. There have been worse seasons than this one, but rarely has one seemed this disappointing. Perhaps that’s because one look at this roster and you realize: this modern era of Cubs success, 2003-2008, is over. An aging roster filled with bad salaries isn’t going to blossom into playoff caliber anytime soon. As I see it, there are two, and only two, moves that the Cubs can make:

1) Fire everybody.
2) Rebuild.

Preferably in that order. I have many written positive words about Jim Hendry, about Tim Wilken, about the Cubs front office in general over the last decade or so, as Hendry helped engineer an era of competitiveness. His mistakes were usually more subtle — the failure to sign Player X, Y or Z — although he’ll be remembered for ill-fated contracts given to Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano, and perhaps unfairly, Milton Bradley. But more, with talented rosters that were sometimes chosen by pundits to win a title, this front office and coaching staff never broke the curse that haunts the organization.

The Cubs now need a new leader, one with less personal ties to the assets in this organization, to begin anew. A person that would start with these moves:

1. Trade Ted Lilly and Kosuke Fukudome. This was the main point Jack Moore made in his “What Should the Cubs do” piece from last week, and since then, Lilly only lowered his ERA. The difference between that number (3.28) and his xFIP (4.63) is now staggering, and he represents the most typical mid-season trade chip the Cubs have. Trading Fukudome would mean eating salary in 2011, but if that means acquiring a decent prospect, it’s worth it.

2. Put Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano on waivers in August. This won’t work. But desperate times…

3. Keep Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez. This rebuild is not geared at success in 2011, so selling low won’t do any good. The draft compensation from Lee’s next signing will likely surpass his 2010 midseason trade value. Ramirez is a sure bet to pick up his $14.6 million player option for 2011, so I’m not sure you could trade him now anyway. But keeping him does allow for a bounce-back next season (while adding a year of development for Josh Vitters), which would allow you to trade him July 31, 2011.

4. Trade Marlon Byrd and Carlos Silva. Credit to Hendry where it’s due, as he may have created two assets out of thin air here. Byrd has been extremely valuable, and is signed to a team-friendly contract through 2012. A team like Atlanta, with their outfield problems and limited finances, would surely part with a good young player for Byrd. Silva’s value on the open market is a little less transparent, but given the Mariners commitment to his salary, he’d only come at $4 million for this year and $6 million for next year, without accounting for what the Cubs might kick in, too.

5. Trade Carlos Marmol. This would be wildly unpopular given Marmol’s quest to shatter the K/9 single-season record. But relievers tend to be overvalued in midseason markets, and Marmol would offer a team 2.5 seasons of arbitration-controlled salaries. He would, semi-deservedly, attract the biggest haul of the bunch. The Cubs could also afford to be stingy with their demands, as he might bring in just as much this winter.

Without question, these moves would be met with scrutiny from Cubs fans and media alike, but they also exist the only chance this team has to compete in a couple years. Hopefully the new person in charge could handle easy decisions like getting rid of the Koyie Hill temptation, returning Sean Marshall and Andrew Cashner to their rightful places in a rotation, riding the Tyler Colvin never-ending hot streak, etc. It shouldn’t be difficult.

Ownership groups are not remembered for the sponsors they land, or the renovations to bathrooms they finance. The Ricketts family must be decisive, and quickly, to salvage something from their inherited regime, and to ensure some eventual success.

Dear Mr. Ricketts: Fire them all. Start over. Faithfully, Bryan Smith.


Mauer Power Redux

On May 1st, 2009, Joe Mauer stepped into the Metrodome batter’s box against Kansas City righty Sidney Ponson. Mauer, making his season debut after missing April with a lower back injury, worked a 2-0 count and then smacked a Sir Sidney fastball over the left field wall. The drive set the tone for a season in which the lefty batter, known for lacing line drives, showed unprecedented power.

Mauer, of course, was already among the better hitters in the game. The three previous seasons, he posted a .378 wOBA and a 134 wRC+. But in 2009, Mauer mashed to the tune of a .438 wOBA and a 174 wRC+. Among qualified big league hitters, Mauer’s wOBA placed behind only that Pujols fellow in St. Louis.

The main reason for the offensive uptick was a dramatic increase in Mauer Power. From 2006 to 2008, the first overall pick in the ’01 draft had a .138 Isolated Power. In 2009, Mauer’s ISO spiked to .222. After, as Carson Cistulli would say, jacking a donger on 8.1 percent of his fly balls hit the preceding three years, Mauer hit a round-tripper 20.4 percent of the time that he lofted the ball in 2009.

Heading into 2010, many wondered how much of that extra power Mauer would retain. It would be rash to just expect him to lash extra-base hits and homers at the same rate as in ’09 from now on. At the same time, expecting total regression back to that previous .130-.140 ISO area would be to ignore a power display that holds statistical significance. CHONE projected a .401 wOBA and .178 ISO from Mauer in 2010, while ZiPS had a .415 wOBA and a .189 ISO. The FANS forecast called for a .409 wOBA and a .200 ISO.

So far, Mauer has a .351 wOBA and a 119 wRC+ in 286 plate appearances. Part of that lower-than-expected wOBA can be explained by a .321 BABIP that’s 21 points below his career average, but Mauer’s pop has reverted to his pre-’09 level, and even a bit below it. His ISO is .128, and his HR/FB rate is 4.6 percent.

As Dave Cameron noted over the winter, Mauer has long been a prodigious opposite field hitter. While most batters perform worst when putting the ball in play to the opposite field, hitting lots of weak fly balls and posting mild power numbers, Mauer thrives when he goes the other way. Last season, Mauer’s splits to left field were the stuff of legends:

The above chart is not a typo — Mauer owned a .600 wOBA when hitting to the opposite field, with a .401 ISO. He crushed 16 home runs to left field. This season, Mauer is still a beast when going the opposite way. But his numbers more closely resemble those from 2006 to 2008. He has connected on one home run to left field thus far:

When hitting to center field, Mauer also showed more power than usual and had a higher BABIP in 2009. This season, his ISO and BABIP have come back down:

The 27-year-old has never been a standout hitter when putting the ball in play to the pull side. Most batters post their best numbers when pulling the ball, but Mauer chops the ball into the ground than most — his ground ball rates to the pull side have usually been in the high-seventies, while the average lefty batter hits a grounder when pulling the ball about 59 percent.

In 2010, Mauer has performed even worse than usual when pulling the ball. A low BABIP hasn’t helped, but neither has a sub-.100 ISO. He has yet to go deep when pulling the ball:

On a positive note, considering his backward spray splits, Mauer is pulling the ball less this season — 25.4 percent, compared to 29.3% from 2006-2008 and 32.9% last season.

What should we make of Mauer’s power? I’m not sure, and it’s probably too early to say what effect Target Field has on these figures. My best guess is that he’ll post power numbers somewhere between his ’09 outburst and his current level. Mauer’s rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .164 ISO, and CHONE’s updated projection for June to the end of 2010 had a .174 ISO. Whether he starts hitting the ball more forcefully or merely keeps drawing walks and cracking doubles, Mauer remains one of the most valuable players in the game.


What Do Power Rankings Tell Us?

The idea of ranking every team’s power in a context-neutral situation is something that appeals to many of us sports fans, regardless of how we feel about statistics. The idea of listing each team in a descending order, such that if #4 played teams #5 through #30, we would expect #4 to win, has a certain appeal to most people – it greatly simplifies the MLB, complicated by the two separate leagues and the three divisions in each league.

There could be other measures of power besides future play, such as the strength of a team’s play so far, which is what Beyond the Box Score’s Team Performance Index attempts to measure. Sometimes we get numbers that don’t quite match up with the win-loss records that we’ve seen on the field. Yes, the Astros are still bad, but TPI has the Athletics, a sub-.500 team, at #11, and the Angels, a team that was seven games better at the time of the rankings, at #19.

Unless it’s the first week of the season, however, the “subjective” power rankings you see at megasites like ESPN, Fox Sports, or FanHouse are unlikely to do much other than rank the teams by win-loss record and then adjust that for their records over the previous week of games. Take a look at this graph, generated from the June 21st or 22nd rankings from each of the sites listed:


Click to enlarge

The black line represents a ranking of the teams by victories as of June 21st, with victories in the last 10 games as the tiebreaker. The black boxes represent FanHouse rankings, blue represents CBS Sports, and red represents ESPN. Unsurprisingly, there is little difference from the ranking by simple wins and the ranking from the experts and these sites. What differences we do see can likely be accounted for with the biases of the writer(s), whether or not the teams are on cold or hot streaks, and their position within their division.

The idea of the power ranking should be able to set us up with some interesting discussions. At the most prominent places in which they’re seen, however, the power rankings are nothing more but a slightly modified league standings page, with a comment on what happened to the team over the previous week. The ranking really has little to do with how these teams would fare against each other over the rest of the season.

We should be able to do better. My ideal power rankings would simply rank the projected strength of each team for the rest of the season – in that sense, power is actually ranked, unlike simply using wins and volatile streaks to put teams in order. There could certainly be many different methodologies, just as there are a variety of projection systems for individual teams. As long as we can get to something deeper than simply pointing out which team has more wins than the other teams, I’ll be happy.