The Other Great Rookie
Due to the ways service time accumulation and “super two” status works, the beginning of June saw a wide collection of the best prospects in baseball make their big league debuts. On June 8th, Stephen Strasburg and Mike Stanton were called up. The 9th brought Brad Lincoln, the 10th saw Jake Arrieta, and on the 11th, it was Carlos Santana.
Of the five guys called up in that four day span, Strasburg has obviously been the star, dominating the National League and making headlines every time he pitches. But, it’s the last of those five names that has actually performed the best since coming to the big leagues. Yes, Santana is even outplaying Mr. Strasburg.
In 16 big league games, he’s collected 17 hits. That doesn’t sound all that impressive until you realize that only five of them are singles. 12 of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases, giving him a .725 slugging percentage.
While that’s impressive, perhaps more so has been his command of the strike zone. Most young hitters struggle with breaking balls and look overmatched at times, but Santana has been anything but, drawing 12 walks in 64 plate appearances while striking out just six times. He’s only chased 20 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, putting him in the company of notable selective hitters like Kevin Youkilis.
Overall, his offensive line reads .333/.453/.725, good for a .490 wOBA. That is shockingly good on its own, but when you factor in that Santana is a catcher (who has thrown out six of 12 attempted basestealers, by the way), it takes it to another level. Santana’s total value in just over two weeks of baseball? +1.3 wins above replacement.
For a comparison, here’s his value extrapolated against Strasburg’s, both projected to a full season’s worth of playing time:
Santana: +10.2 wins per 500 PA
Strasburg: +9.5 wins per 200 IP
We limit Santana to 500 PA since he’s a catcher, and yet, he’s still outproducing Strasburg in value. This is to take nothing away from Washington’s ace, who is legitimately an amazing arm and one of the most exciting things to happen to baseball in a long, long time. However, what Santana is doing for the Indians is awfully impressive, and the comparison illustrates just how well he’s played since his arrival.
Strasburg and Jason Heyward are going to have make room – there’s yet another elite rookie in this class making a massive impact on his team from day one.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I like the idea of highlighting Carlos Santana out of this group as an elite player, but I think the extrapolated stats are a bit misleading. If you extrapolate to roughly 500 ABs we’re looking at a 40 hr 140 rbi catcher with a sick .avg which I think is unreasonable. On top of that, I think its more likely for Strasburg to keep his current #s up, or even improve on them in the future than for Santana to do that. If we’re going off of what Santana’s done already, it will get no better than this.
Point taken though, with V-mart’s injury and Mauer’s regression back to lowly HR #’s, Carlos Santana looks like he will feasibly battle to be the # 1 catcher this year from the date he arrived to the end of the season.
The present ability, ceiling and overall depth of the 2010 rookie class is absurd. Reminds me of the mid-80’s, which I could be overselling due to fact I was a prepubescent baseball card freak. “OMG! Dwight Gooden rookie card!” *faint*
Is there a way of seeing a WAR leaderboard for rookies?
Agree 100% with YG
Here’s a nice stat for Dodgers fans:
Casey Blake 2010 WAR (271 PA): 1.2
Carlos Santana 2010 WAR (64 PA): 1.3
The funny part about being an MLB GM: because Casey Blake has played well, no one will remember this trade.
Ol’ Snakeskin boots will still be loved by the LA media.
I think you forgot one of the best rookies in Tyler Colvin especially versus Jason Heyward as of right now he is out playing him. Tyler has the same amount of HRs in 1/2 the ABs. Tylers line with several PH PA also is 153 PA .285 .336 .583 wOBA of .392 as Heyward is 303 PA .251 .366 .455 wOBA of .360.
Tell me on the doll where Strasburg touched you, Davie.
hahaha
“Yes, Strasburg has been amazing this season, but let’s not forget that almost a century ago another fireballing phenom took our nation’s capital by storm. It’d be a shame to focus on Strasburg so much that we forget the accomplishments of Walter Johnson.” — Dave Cameron
In Heyward’s defense, he played for a month with a thumb injury that negatively impacted his performance in a big way. The Braves finally sent him to a specialist a few days ago. He’s now on the DL with a cast on his thumb. He apparently has a bone bruise on the thumb.
don’t forget about John Jaso
ummm, Brennan Boesch?
how does boesch fit into this?
Probably thinking of all the great rookie seasons so far this year. Considering his numbers (a 162 OPS+ in 221 PA), he should be in all the “best rookie” discussions.
Not part of the Super 2 June class though.
Yep I agree even way better then Colvin but in the AL, and Jason Heyward is some how still mentioned and still leading in all star ballots? Media just puts this guy as the next Pujols and everyone jumps on the bandwagon. Injury stats dont exist and its really easy to say yep my thumb has bothered me for a month when you start to slump – not saying that is the case but it happens.
Catcher vs. corner outfielder. Boesch has been doing it for a longer period of time, but Santana plays the more demanding position, and has been great defensively, while Boesch has been below-average in the outfield. That’s what I think Dave was thinking.
PS: Boesch is only at 2.0 WAR anyway.
“Strasburg and Jason Heyward are going to have make room – there’s yet another elite rookie in this class making a massive impact on his team from day one.”
I agree with you, his point, which is a very cool point, out of the super two rookies, one of them is even better then Strasburg right now. My point is Heyward is somehow become the level for rookies to attain yet he is not even beating Colvin or Boesch in numbers. Heyward is leading All Star ballots?
Poor Dodger fans.
Uh…the other side that hasn’t been mentioned from the great trade that just keeps on giving:
Casey Blake was signed to a 3-yr / $17.5MM deal… *slap to the forehead
Carlos Santana’s slugging percentage is higher than Russell Martin’s OPS.
i’m glad that Coletti traded for a third baseman who had a ridiculous chin that could match Ned’s absurd mustache.
But this trade was awful. no other way to look at it. awful.
Agreed … and it was awful at the time, too. Not just with the benefit of hindsight. It was a terrible trade when it happened. Casey Blake isn’t terrible. But I wouldn’t have traded Carlos Santana for 58 games of ANYBODY.
“Of the five guys called up in that four day span, Strasburg has obviously been the star, dominating the National League and making headlines every time he pitches.”
Picking nits here, but 3 of 5 Strasburg starts were against AL teams.
So, in 16 games, Santana has already been worth more than the $2 million the Dodgers saved by trading him to Cleveland in the Blake deal…?
Wonderful.
Carlos Santana’s player profile seems to be split between his major and minor league stats.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=paS05514&position=C
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2396&position=C
I believe that’s true of all players in their first MLB year.
Brian C what are you a blind Giants fan? This trade has not been awful. Blake has been good for LA. He’s worth 5.5 million a year. Who knew Martin would fall off a cliff, into a black hole to the center of the earth.
I mean it’s not as though hot rookies have never cooled off & come back to earth after 16 games..
The trade was awful because Santana wasn’t required to make it happen Santana wasn’t traded for Blake he was sold for 2 Million dollars
and thats what makes me cry myself to sleep every night. even if we weren’t going to play him a la buster posey in SF, at least he could be the piece we use to get cliff lee or halladay in the offseason.
Great article. I was really irked when the Indians came to town and my team’s color guy kept saying Santana was a free swinger. I thought about mailing him a printout of Santana’s stats (along with some hate mail), but perhaps this article will help the old fella put some too.
1-3 with a double, a walk, and a K last night.
That’s gonna hurt his line, he’d better pick it up.
Haha, and that’s a bad night for Santana.
Jaime Garcia?
“Due to the ways service time accumulation and “super two” status works, the beginning of June saw a wide collection of the best prospects in baseball make their big league debuts. On June 8th, Stephen Strasburg and Mike Stanton were called up. The 9th brought Brad Lincoln, the 10th saw Jake Arrieta, and on the 11th, it was Carlos Santana.”
He’s not talking about all rookies…just the recently called up ones.
“Strasburg and Jason Heyward are going to have make room – there’s yet another elite rookie in this class making a massive impact on his team from day one. ”
Except in his last statement. My point is Heyward gets alll the headlines yet he is not even beating Colvin in numbers. There is no addition of stats for injuries.
We got your point the first five times oompa. Colvin is a fine player, and yes, he’s currently outproducing Heyward. That doesn’t put them on the same talent level or prospect status.
Okay, lol. Sorry I was felt I was misleading in my first statment. Everyone jumped on the best rookie of the year argument. I thought he was overrated and still do.
Why do you feel he is overrated? I mean, noone truthfully expected him to come into the league and be Pujols (at least noone with half a brain and some common sense). But the package of skills he brings to the table is unbelievably impressive.
What is it about Heyward that you don’t like? The only knock against him that is truly arguable, imo, is his injury history.
In the beginning it was Strasburg like the way some analysts were projecting him, I heard Pujols I think from ESPN which take that as you will. Once again we have a rookie all star who is not an all star over the hype. Honestly, If I had to pick between him and Colvin I have to take Heyward because its the “your a genius if Colvin works out”, and your an idiot if not. Colvin was predicted just in March on this website to be a complete flop by the author and most of the commenters on that story. Heyward #s are dipping and Colvin has played half the time with better numbers. What esle does this kid have to do?
Heyward is in a slump due to injury, its plain as day. When you can’t properly grip a bat, your numbers (any player) will suffer significantly. The Braves and Heyward should have been honest with themselves about this 3-4 weeks back, but they were fighting for the lead in the NL East and they tried to let him play through the injury.
Even after an injury marred June, he has a wOBA of .360 and a 1.8 WAR. Most of his struggles came against LHP as well, as he still has a .389 wOBA vs. RHP. And this is all after a .532 OPS month, so you can imagine where the numbers were coming into June.
I’m not bashing Colvin. I think he’s a fine OF. But he’s seriously due for regression — he’s walking 7% of the time while striking out more than 30% of the time. His HR/FB% is disgustingly high at 27.8%. He’s not a .287 ISO player – he’s more of a .175-.225 ISO player.
Now, again, this is not bashing Colvin, its being realistic about his skill set and trying to determine what to expect. I’ll repeat — I like Colvin and I think the Cubs should be happy to have him in the fold — he can defn. be a part of the future — but he’s no Heyward, its just not even close.
I agree with you on the “upside” for Heyward, and if has been truly injured for that long then I obviously agree it would definitely affect his numbers. The management of both of them has been horrible Colvin should be the everyday player over Fukudome and Heyward should never be considered for the lineup if injured. Colvin’s 7% walk rate is I think actually an improvement for him, lol. In the end, I hope that I still get to compare Colvin to him in the future.
Couple of quibbles here. Strasburg has 1.5 war in 5 starts. Multiply that out to 35 starts, and you get 10.5 WAR, not 9.5. Second, his FIP, swinging strike%, and (especially) BABIP numbers indicate that he might be even better than he’s looked so far. We’ll see, of course, but I’m definitely agreeing with YG.
1 pitcher made 35 starts last year and only 9 others made 34 starts.
200 IP (used in the article) would work out to less than 6 IP per start for Strasburg as well, while he’s currently averaging 6 1/3 IP per start.
At his current pace per start, that works out to 32 starts, which is much more reasonable for a young pitcher that the team has on total IP limit and an in-game pitch count target (which we can reasonably assume would continue to some degree into next season).
So, using 35 starts as a barometer doesn’t seem appropriate.
Does the fact he is only pitching 6 innings somehow negatively affect his WAR, and if not should it? I know Harden/Peavy low innings guys are a huge burden on the bullpen averaging 1-2 extra relievers per game.
Not only Gooden, but Eric Davis as well. Davis was the “second coming of Mays/star” as the story goes.
It was just assumed that those 2 would just take over the world. Then came The Kid.
If any of you guys get MLBtv or get a chance to see the Indians, watch the way Santana stands in the box. Perfect balance, perfect stance, and a look on his face like he’s angry at the ball. Guy can flat out hit, and he has a cannon for an arm.
Indians hired Sandy Alomar for a reason, to teach this guy to call a game. Once he learns that, he’ll be a superstar.