Barring unforeseen tragedy or circumstance, Bryce Harper will be the number one overall pick in next week’s amateur draft. This will occur roughly a week after Steve Phillips suggested he would trade last year’s number one pick, sir Stephen Strasburg, for a proven veteran starting pitcher. Undoubtedly someone who resides somewhere will suggest a similar faith for Harper. The concept of trading the number one pick before said player reaches the major isn’t just a concept or crackpot suggestion, though, it’s happened and it’s happened as recently as last decade. Here’s a brief history.

The Tim Belcher trade

Drafted by the Minnesota Twins as the first overall pick in the 1983 amateur draft, Belcher actually did not sign with the Twins, and instead would be drafted the New York Yankees in the secondary draft. The Oakland Athletics would acquire Belcher as a free agent compensation pick less than a month later. For Belcher it was a tumultuous path not to the majors, but just to find an apartment for longer than a few weeks at a time. In 1987, the Athletics would send Belcher to complete a previous trade for Rick Honeycutt and three days later Belcher would debut in the majors. Per Baseball-Reference, he would compile 13.2 WAR for the Dodgers while starting 119 games. As for Honeycutt and the Athletics, he would spend eight years there, pitching 406 innings and recording 3.9 WAR.

The Shawn Abner trade

After 16 drafts without a first overall pick being dealt for reaching the majors, we had it happen with back-to-back picks. Drafted by the Mets in June of 1984, Abner would be traded to the San Diego Padres in December of 1986 along with Kevin Armstrong, Kevin Brown, Stan Jefferson, and Kevin Mitchell for Adam Ging, Kevin McReynolds, and Gene Walter. For his part, Abner would actually be well below replacement level despite only racking up 562 plate appearances over five years for the Friars.

The Josh Hamilton trade

This is probably the best known entry while being the one under the least normal of circumstances. Hamilton, of course, fought through addiction and league banishment just to re-enter the Rays’ minor league system in 2006. After a few weeks in short season ball he suffered a season-ending knee injury that required surgery. The Rays left him exposed for the Rule 5 draft and figured he wouldn’t stick on a 40-man roster. The Cubs took him in the draft and traded him to the Reds for cash.

The Adrian Gonzalez trade

The top pick from the 2000 draft, the Marlins would send him along with Ryan Snare and Will Smith the Texas Rangers for Ugueth Urbina. This is one of those trades where it’s easy to look at it now and say, “Wow, they gave that up for Uggie Urbina?” and yes, they did. They gave up a guy with a myriad of potential Fresh Prince and Jazzy Jeff jokes for Urbina. They also gave up Gonzalez.

At that point, Gonzalez was in the midst of a season and a half of disappointing statistics in Double-A as a 20- and 21-year-old; disappointing in the sense that he wasn’t quite the devourer of ozone layers quite yet. Presumably the Marlins didn’t feel comfortable with his development and decided that flags fly forever, so why not add the ultra good Urbina? Not that I’m defending the trade or that point of view, but Gonzalez would contribute -0.7 WAR to the Rangers over two seasons while Urbina would rack up 0.9 wins in 38 innings for the eventual world champs.

Fausto Carmona’s descent is well known. He had a 4.2 WAR season in 2007, thanks to a 2.55 BB/9 and a miniscule 0.67 HR/9. Even though that sounds like he may have had some luck with regards to home runs, xFIP would disagree, as he had a 3.88 xFIP against a 3.94 FIP. Carmona had the perfect formula for a low strikeout pitcher: keep runners off the bases and throw a ton of ground balls, as he posted a ridiculous 64.3% ground ball rate that season.

Carmona couldn’t keep the walks down in 2008, as he walked nearly twice as many batters on a per inning basis. The ground ball rate was still high, at 63.5%, which was the only thing keeping him above replacement level, as he posted a K/BB well below 1.00. The 2009 season was equally as bad, as an increase in strikeouts wasn’t enough to counteract a drop in ground ball rates. Both seasons saw xFIPs around 5.00 and FIPs in the same range.

This season, Carmona is having what appears to be a rebirth, as he’s running a 3.53 ERA through his first 11 starts. Looking slightly deeper, we see a similar K/BB rate to Carmona’s great 2007, but the ground ball rate just isn’t there any more. Still, with a ground ball rate as high as Carmona still runs, like his 56.2% rate this season, even a little luck can turn a mediocre season (4.18 FIP, 4.59 xFIP).

Those advanced metrics suggest that Carmona is back in the sense that he’s a Major League quality starting pitcher again, but he’s by no means an ace or even a number two. That shouldn’t be terribly surprising, as he simply doesn’t have strikeout stuff, and it’s very hard to be consistently successful in the major leagues when contact is made as consistently as it is against Carmona. Still, he also proves that a pitcher with a high ground ball rate can be very useful.

Carmona is under contract for the 2011 season at $6.1 million and then the Indians hold $7M, $9M, and $12M club options for the next three years. Even though Carmona isn’t an elite pitcher, the market for starting pitching can be thin, and $6.1 million for an average or even slightly below average starting pitcher isn’t a bad deal. Either Carmona wears out his usefulness by 2012, or the Indians can play the market for the next few years and see if he still fits into their plans.

On Wednesday, I wrote about measuring the runs a player costs his team by grounding into (or avoiding) the double play. If you haven’t, I recommend taking a look at that post if you’re interested in the methodological details. Today I’ll discuss the players who have been the best at avoiding the double play ranked by the runs they’ve cost saved their team relative to average (0.35 runs above/below average per GiDP opportunity — average is around 11%) in 2010, then go over a few interesting points in conclusion to both discussions.*

* For today’s post I’m using the most recent data from Baseball-Reference’s situational leaderboards, so things “on top” (or bottom, depending on your perspective) have changed since then, although not much.

There are a number of hitters at around +1.4 runs, and between no double plays (in fewer oppportunities than the leaders below) and four percent grounded into per opportunity. In no particular order: Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson, Hideki Matsui, Justin Morneau, Carlos Pena, Cody Ross, Josh Willingham, and Chris Young.

The second best player in GiDP runs saved is Carl Crawford, who is 0-45 in DP situations so far, +1.75 runs. He’s been excellent at it throughout his career, but this is also a a bit ironic given that Crawford is perceived as a great leadoff man (although he hasn’t always been used that way). It is well-established that, on average the lead off spot sees the fewest DP opportunities (runner on first with less than two outs). Of course, Crawford has been seen as a lead off man because of his speed, particularly his basestealing ability. But as The Book also notes, having a great basestealer leading off is a bit of a flawed strategy, since most teams have good hitters (usually with good power) hitting behind him; does Evan Longoria really need Crawford’s help in moving along the basepaths? As with most things batting-order related, it’s a tiny difference over a season (and in 2010, Crawford hasn’t led of at all, maybe Joe Maddon read something co-authored by his biggest fan?), but it is interesting to note. As an aside, The Book also mentions that the third spot sees the most GiDP chances on average, which is why good hitters like Joe Mauer and Billy Butler might not fit well in that spot in the order.

Josh Hamilton leads the league in GiDP runs saved so far this season, at +2.1, and over his career, he’s been about as good as Crawford. It’s a nice addition to the mini-comeback season he’s had. I’m guessing it’s the tattoos.

Three (promissory?) notes in conclusion two these two posts:

a) I don’t think it needs to be said (but I’ll say it anyway) that these are just “leaderboards” for the current season, not estimations of true talent (“projections”), although the leaders/trailers so far have been players one would expect give past performance (Billy Butler and Joe Mauer having problems, Hamilton and Crawford doing well). I might mess around with projections after the season, right after I finish all that other stuff I want to do but don’t have time to do.

b) It is interesting, but not entirely surprising, that low-strikeout players not known for their wheels (Butler, Mauer, Pablo Sandoval, Ivan Rodriguez) have been the worst so far these season, and while there are some speedsters up top (Crawford, Granderson) there are also some slow guys who strike out a lot like Dunn and Pena (Granderson and Young, among others, also strike out a good deal). This small sample with regard to both time and number of players doesn’t prove anything, but it suggest to me that while speed is an important factor in double play avoidance, taking pitches might also be a factor. Of course, to get the full measurement of cost/benefit here, we’d have to also measure the linear weights of productive outs and groundouts in general above and below average to see what the strikeout guys might be missing out on, too.

c) It is also curious that the handedness of the leaders and trailers is in line with some initial findings by MGL (who shouldn’t be blamed for anything I write here, obviously). Of the players having the most problems so far from Wednesday’s post, all are right-handed hitters except for Pablo Sandoval and Joe Mauer, who are themselves atypical hitters (Sandoval for his success while swinging at everything, Mauer for his preference for the opposite field). Almost all of today’s leaders are left-handed. This requires much more study, but it suggests that handedness matters, and that when projecting GiDP skill, that regression by hitter-handedness might be a good idea.

In the event that you somehow didn’t notice all the confetti and bunting left over from the big unveiling, I announced earlier this week the introduction of NERD to the public imagination.

Essentially, NERD represents an attempt to anticipate what games might be most appealing to the baseball nerd (read: you and you and you). It’s in its most infant stages right now, but is probably better than nothing at the moment. As such, it’s with zero apologies that I’ve utilized it to look at this weekend’s pitching match-ups.

Remember, NERD is graded on a 1-10 scale (for starters with 20+ IP) in terms of how appealing a pitcher is to the nerd aesthetic. For each day of the weekend, I’ve looked at three types of game: one that’s appealing by NERD’s standards (Behold), one that’s totally unappealing (Flee), and one that NERD might not quite yet be ready to assess correctly (Also Consider).

Friday, June 04
Behold: Mat Latos (7) at Roy Halladay (10), 7:05pm ET
• Halladay is one of three pitchers — alongside Cliff Lee and the very unlucky Dan Haren — currently sporting a perfect NERD score. Like Lee, Halladay is shockingly effective without throwing a ton of swing-and-miss pitches, relying instead on controlling the strike zone and getting grounders.

Flee: Joe Saunders (0) at Ian Snell (0), 10:10pm ET
• Saunders is a soft-tosser who doesn’t throw strikes. Snell has 1:1 K:BB and only 33% groundball rate. Together, they form a perfect storm of mediocrity.

Also Consider: Clay Buchholz (6) at Chris Tillman (NA), 7:05pm ET
• Tonight marks Tillman’s second ML start of the year after being recalled from Triple-A Norfolk last week. Also, the average age of tonight’s starters is a mere 23.5 years old. Also, did you know that Buchholz has posted about a 53% groundball rate in his last 150 major league innings? Why does no one tell me these things?!?

Saturday, June 05
Behold: Carlos Silva (7) at Roy Oswalt (9), 7:05pm ET
• The thing we know that NERD doesn’t (yet!) is that Houston’s offense, currently way last in batting runs, is officially a threat to the human spirit. In terms of just the pitching match-up, though, Silva versus Oswalt promises to be a strike fest. Quick thing: did you know that Oswalt is currently posting his highest K rate since 2002? Well, he is: 9.08 K/9. This, after posting right around 7 K/9 for like the last five years.

Flee: Todd Wellemeyer (0) at Paul Maholm (3), 7:05pm ET
• Ick.

Also Consider: James Shields (9) at Tommy Hunter (NA), 4:10pm ET
• Dave Cameron’s favorite for this year’s Cy is essentially — in terms of product, if not process — is essentially the right-handed version of Cliff Lee right now, absolutely filling up the strike zone while getting enough whiffs to make such an approach truly menacing. Hunter, I’m not so excited about, but he is just 23 and this is just his second ML start of the season. There’s room for curiosity there.

Sunday, June 06
Behold: Javier Vazquez (5) at Brandon Morrow (8), 1:07pm ET
• While last year’s NERD leader Vazquez has fallen on hard times, Morrow is delivering on some of his potential right now, currently behind only Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw in swinging-strike rate. And while it may surprise the frig out of Seattle fans, Morrow is actually throwing about a league-average rate of strikes (61.4%).

Flee: Matt Garza (4) at Rich Harden (0), 3:05pm ET
• Harden is currently sporting a below-average whiff rate — this after producing three consecutive years of 15%-plus in the same category. When he’s not producing swing-and-misses, Harden’s hard to watch. Garza’s mediocre NERD might surprise you, especially if you’re looking at his 3.08 ERA. But he’s basically a league-average dude right now: normal whiff rate (7.5%), normal xFIP (4.43).

Also Consider: Tim Lincecum (9, 1:35pm ET) and Ubaldo Jimenez (7, 4:10pm ET)
• Only problem is, these guys aren’t facing each other. Lincecum goes up against Ross Ohlendorf (0), who’s almost as unappealing to the nerd as possible. Rodrigo Lopez pitches for Arizona against Jimenez. The fact that Jimenez gets a 7 on the current NERD scale is proof that the system needs to incorporate Awesomeness into its criteria. Or at least fastabll velocity. One or the other.

With clubs set to infuse more talent into their systems next week, and with being two months into the minor league season, it’s a great time to take a quick look at how the Top 10 prospects are doing in each system. Today, we’ll take a look at the National League Central. So far we’ve looked at the AL East, the NL East, and the AL Central.

*The Top 10 lists originally appeared in FanGraphs’ Second Opinion fantasy guide published in March.

The club is receiving outstanding contributions from its rookies in 2010: Garcia and Freese. Both are definitely in the running for Rookie of the Year in the National League. Miller is off to a respectable start in low-A. He has a very good strikeout rate but he remains quite inconsistent, which is not unexpected. Lynn has moved up to triple-A with little trouble. Sanchez is an intriguing arm currently at double-A, while Descalso looks like he might develop into a useful utility player in the Majors.

The club’s 2009 draft and international signings are already paying off in a big way. Leake is one of the top rookies in the Majors, while Chapman is looking good in triple-A and Boxberger is cruising through high-A ball. Alonso, the club’s No. 1 draft pick from ’08, has reached triple-A but his numbers are modest through 21 games. Frazier has taken a pretty big step backward, and you have to wonder how much all the position changing has affected him. The club has nice pitching depth with Wood and Maloney both near MLB ready.

I took a bit of a gamble by ranking Cashner as the No. 1 prospect in the system but it’s not looking too crazy now, as he really broke out this season and was recently promoted to the Majors. Castro is also contributing to the big league club right now and has looked good. Vitters is up to double-A but his lack of patience at the plate continues to prevent him from really breaking out. Jackson has thrown well in triple-A but – like Cashner – the organization moved him from the starting rotation to the bullpen at triple-A for a little while. The members of the lower half of the Top 10 list are pretty much treading water in 2010.

Both Alvarez and Lincoln have held their own in triple-A this season, but neither one has really stepped up his game to force the organization into making a move. Sanchez continues to hit well as a pro and could conceivably move up to double-A at some point this season. Tabata has recaptured a lot of his prospect value by embracing more of a “small ball” approach. He’s one stolen base shy of his career high and it’s just June 4. The club has to be pretty excited about the potential of two left-handed starters: Locke and Owens. Marte, who’s currently hurt, has also taken a step forward in his development this season.

Escobar is having a respectable rookie season in the Majors but his lack of steals definitely takes a bite out of his value. Lawrie has had a bit of an up-and-down season in double-A but he’s young for the level and the organization has been aggressive with him. Gamel has battled injuries and is just starting to heat up. The middle of the Top 10 list has really made some strides this season. Braddock is pitching out of the Brewers’ bullpen and Lucroy is also on the MLB squad. Odorizzi, a supplemental first round pick from ’08, is enjoying his first taste of full-season ball with 60 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. Heckathorn has exceeded my expectations and then some with a very good showing in low-A. The knock on him has always been his inability to overpower hitters despite very good stuff but it looks like the Brewers’ minor league coaching staff has done a great job with the ’09 supplemental first round pick. The club’s No. 1 pick from ’09, Arnett, has struggled.

Castro got off to a slow start in 2010 but he’s really turning his season around now. The name to really watch in this system, though, is Lyles. The 19 year old is more than holding his own in double-A with 58 hits and 13 walks allowed in 63.1 innings. He’s struck out 52 batters. That’s not bad at all for a kid that was skipped over high-A ball. Another arm, Bushue, has also taken a step forward in 2010. Outside of Castro, the most interesting bat to watch in the system is Austin, although it’s hard to know how much of an impact Lancaster is having on his numbers. He still needs a lot of work to improve his SB success rate; he’s also batting just .190 against southpaws.

Tinkering with lineups has long been a fan pleasure. We all have opinions on players, and with that comes an opinion where they should hit in the batting order. In the past half decade, however, we’ve learned that lineup construction doesn’t have an enormous effect on run scoring. In 2002 Keith Woolner of Baseball Prospectus tackled the topic. Three years later his colleague James Click followed it up. A year later Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times compiled perhaps the most straightforward demonstration of lineup construction. The results are pretty much the same: a team’s best hitters should bat first, second, and fourth, with third and fifth coming next and sixth through ninth going in descending order.

If the No. 2 spot is one of the top three most important parts of the lineup, why do we routinely see managers place poor hitters there? Is it, as Click describes in his article, the conventional knowledge that the No. 2 guy should be a contact hitter? That really needn’t be the case. The No. 2 hitter’s primary job is to set the table for the power hitters. An ability to move a leadoff hitter from first to third is a bonus, but not the primary goal. Why, then, do managers slot hitters with poor OBPs into the No. 2 spot?

This year in the AL I’ve noticed six such arrangements, three of which continue today. The other three have been removed from the No. 2 spot, one in an ironically hilarious manner.

Aaron Hill

In the Blue Jays’ 55 games manager Cito Gaston has made a few lineup tweaks. He inserted Fred Lewis into the leadoff spot when Toronto acquired him in April. With Aaron Hill on the DL he slid the hot Alex Gonzalez into the two hole. In the past week he has moved the Jose Bautista into the fifth spot, supplanting the disappointing Lyle Overbay. Yet some things haven’t changed. Despite his power outburst, John Buck remains in the eighth spot, two spots the now normal Gonzalez. The Nos. 2 and 3 spots remain unchanged as well, despite poor results.

It’s understandable why Gaston would stick with Aaron Hill in the No. 2 spot. He is, after all, just one year removed from a breakout season. But even then his .330 OBP doesn’t fit the ideal mold of a No. 2 hitter. That seems more like a No. 5 hitter, though that’s just an anecdotal observation. Right now Hill sports a .188 BA and .286 OBP, so he’s not helping the team much at all. Going with the best hitters at Nos. 1, 2, and 4, it would seem right now that Fred Lewis, Vernon Wells, and Bautista should be hitting in those spots.

Howie Kendrick

Through the first 36 games of the season Bobby Abreu was the regular No. 2 hitter for the Angels. He was OK, not great in that role, hitting .254/.329/.420 in 155 PA. Hideki Matsui was hitting a bit worse, though, and manager Mike Scioscia wanted to move him out of the cleanup spot. For a few games he accomplished this by flipping Matsui and Kendry Morales, but after the 12th he showed a new-look order. Abreu moved to the No. 3 spot, Torii Hunter became the cleanup guy, Morales went back to his regular No. 5 spot, and Matsui hit sixth. Taking over the No. 2 spot was Howie Kendrick.

At the end of April it looked as though Kendrick would build on his second half of 2009. He was hitting .293/.341/.390, and probably would have been a nice fit in the No. 2 spot. By May 12, however, he was already slumping. His numbers had fallen to .288/.323/.400, but that might have been just a slump. Scioscia apparently thought so. But since the move Kendrick has hit .233/.358/.356. It looked as though, for a few games, that Maicer Izturis would take over, but for the last two Scioscia has gone back to Kendrick. It’s not the spot for him right now.

Chone Figgins

As with Gaston and Hill, it’s understandable why Don Wakamatsu has stuck with Chone Figgins in the No. 2 spot. Figgins has, in fact, started every one of the Mariners’ 53 games, and in every game he has hit second. The original idea was close to perfect. With Ichiro and Figgins hitting in the top two spots, the middle of the Mariners order would have plenty of chances. With the improving Franklin Gutierrez in the second spot and Milton Bradley hitting cleanup, it looked like the Mariners could make most of their mostly weak offense.

Two parts of that plan have worked out. Ichiro has been Ichiro, slapping hits all over the field. His .342 BA and .392 OBP make him an ideal top of the order hitter. Gutierrez, too, has shown improvement from last year. His .371 wOBA makes him a good fit at No. 3 — at least in terms of the Mariners’ roster. Yet Figgins and Bradley have sorely disappointed. In his first 135 PA of 2010 Bradley has hit for very little power, a .116 ISO, and otherwise has posted horrible numbers. He hasn’t been much better since returning from his short layoff, .235/.273/.294. In the No. 2 hole Figgins has below average OBP, .325, and a horrendous BA, .215. Unfortunately, unless they want to ride Josh Wilson’s hot hand, Figgins still profiles best in that spot.

And now I’ll finish up quickly, as I must run and escape the wrath of Dave Cameron…

Relieved of duty

Earlier in the season a few other AL teams featured poor No. 2 hitters. In fact, all three were in the AL Central. Since then they’ve been removed from the spot, either because of ineffectiveness or injury.

Gordon Beckham: Apparently, Ozzie Guillen does not like having men on base for the heart of his order. He has hit Juan Pierre (.313 OBP) leadoff in 42 of the team’s 53 games. For 29 of his team’s first 32 games he also hit Gordon Beckham second. From the start of the season through May 9, his last day in the No. 2 spot, he hit .193/.305/.257. He’s now hitting ninth and also hitting much worse, .213/.250/.213 since the demotion. Since then A.J. Pierzynski has taken the most reps at No. 2, and he’s been horrible too, .250/.260/.389 since the move and .224/.264/.339 overall.

Scott Podsednik: This actually worked out well. For 29 of the team’s first 33 games Podsednik hit in the No. 2 spot. In that time he hit .314/.368/.413. Yet starting in May he slipped a bit, hitting .244/.262/.488 from May 1 through May 11, when he moved out of the No. 2 spot in favor of Mike Aviles, who is hitting .305/.336/.410. But these are the Royals, so there has to be a catch, right? No way they’d just happen to notice Podsednik slowing down and move him quickly out of the No. 2 spot, right? You got it. Starting on May 12 they moved him to the leadoff spot, where he’s hitting .265/.319/.289. Sounds more like No. 9 hitter to me.

Grady Sizemore: Back in March, when Manny Acta announced that Grady Sizemore would hit second, I liked the move. It would give Asdrubal Cabrera a chance to test his mettle in the leadoff spot and would let the Indians take more advantage of Sizemore’s power. The move just didn’t work out. Sizemore hit .211/.271/.289 in 33 games before hitting the DL. He’s set to undergo knee surgery today and will miss at least the next six weeks. If he needs another procedure to correct a microfracture he could be out quite a while longer.

In looking at whether or not Commissioner Bud Selig should overturn Jim Joyce’s call and award Armando Galarraga a perfect game, I want to take a philosophical approach. Unfortunately, most of the dialogue surrounding the situation has been wrapped in cliche and hyperbole, so I believe thinking about it more logically could help everyone involved.

I’m a utilitarian, which means I belong to a moral philosophy that believes acts should be judged on the amount of utility (or happiness) they bring to people. If you’ve ever taken Philosophy 101 or read any of Mill, you understand my position. So what would a utilitarian have to say about this situation? Well, I think the burden of unhappiness or unrest sits most heavily with the people most closely involved with the situation. This would be Armando Galarraga and his family, Jim Joyce and his family, and the Detroit Tigers organization and fans. For everybody else involved, this will likely just be a news story that fades away and is eventually forgotten about. However, the people directly involved will not forget about this situation (meaning be at mental ease about it) for a long, long time. Without question, the decision to make Galarraga’s start a Perfect Game would bring them great amounts of happiness.

So if Selig’s decision could only bring happiness, where is the issue? Firstly, many people will not be thrilled with the decision, but as I said earlier, their small inconvenience will be outweighed by those intimately involved, along with the many people who will like the decision. Why do many people not like the potential decision? They are worried about the “precedent” it may set. There are other irrational worries out there, but the precedent argument seems to be the one most often put forth by intelligent analysts (such as Keith Law). Baseball columnist Phil Rogers states the case:

If Selig announces that Galarraga does in fact have a perfect game, he’ll also have to make a few other changes too. The St. Louis Cardinals will be awarded the 1985 World Series, which was changed forever by the Don Denkinger call. Milt Pappas will get his perfect game, because everyone knows Bruce Froemming squeezed him. Willie Keeler, Pete Rose or someone else will own the longest hitting streak, as favorable scoring calls helped Joe DiMaggio put together his streak of 56 games in a row.

There’s no precedence for Selig to issue an after-the-fact finding, no matter how badly Joyce would love to be let off the hook.

But this is as silly as a strawman as I have ever seen. Just because someone makes a decision in one specific situation does not mean people down the line need to act only according to the previous decision (or, as Rogers absurdly argues, retroactively change prior events with loosely related circumstances). Tom Boswell hits the nail on the head here:

I think Bud should reverse the call in the best interests of the game. Everybody screams, “But what about the precedent it would set!”

Yeah, what precedent? That the next time an umpire blows the 27th out of a perfect game by two feet (then the pitcher gets the 28th out on the next hitter so that the bad call has no effect on the outcome) the next commssioner will reversethat call, too? Oh, you mean that precedent?

Come on, just do the right thing.

Besides the fact that another situation happening like this one (perfect game blown on safe/out call on last play of the game) is extremely, extremely unlikely, if it does happen again, then change it in the future if you see fit! If not, don’t. Rational actors keep agency in future events. There’s a reason the “slippery slope” is an informal fallacy!

I hope this was at the least a unique perspective on the situation. Considering there will be more utility, and the fears of the relatively inconvenienced fans/sportwriters against it rest mostly on logical fallacies, I believe Bud Selig should rule Galarraga’s start a “Perfect Game” in the best interest of baseball.

It’s hard to play in New York and fly under the radar. Every performance is magnified, and the always on media machine beats every remotely interesting subject to death. So, while he’s played a lot of good of baseball over the last two years, perhaps the most impressive thing about Angel Pagan is how underrated he still appears to be.

Since the start of the 2008 season, Pagan has received 585 plate appearances, or just about one full season’s worth of playing time. In that time span, he’s posted a .355 wOBA and a +14.4 UZR while playing primarily in center field. That performance adds up to a total value of +4.9 wins, the sixth most of any center fielder in baseball during that time frame.

Pagan is the classic jack of all trades, master of none, and his skillset is routinely undervalued for its lack of any one outstanding trait. He hits for a good average, but not so good that he’s among the league leaders. He draws some walks, but isn’t an on base machine. He has gap power, but his slugging is mostly made up of doubles and triples, not the more flashy home runs. He runs decently, but isn’t a huge base stealer. He’s a good defender, but doesn’t make a lot of spectacular plays.

Pagan has no glaring strength (aside from his glovework, but the samples are still pretty small to judge whether he’s actually an elite defender), but neither does he have any weaknesses. He’s the National League’s version of David DeJesus – just a good quality player who never gets the recognition he deserves.

DeJesus, of course, has never been relegated to a reserve role behind Gary Matthews Jr. That experiment mercifully lasted less than a week before the Mets realized the error of their ways, but still, Pagan was so lightly thought of that he had to beat out Matthews for a job to begin with.

When Carlos Beltran returns, the Mets will have a decision to make. The answer is actually pretty easy – Jeff Francoeur goes to the bench, as he’s clearly the worst outfielder on the team. We’ll see if the Mets get it right this time, and recognize just what they have in Pagan – a quality outfielder who deserves to play everyday.

This follows up yesterday’s piece about the history of first round third baseman. It follows the outline of similar pieces on the 2010 draft’s top catchers and shortstops.

Yesterday, I talked about how first round third baseman have done pretty well, at least relative to the other positions we’ve discussed thus far. They move quickly, and usually give you a pretty good idea of their future, as long as you wait to judge until they hit Double-A. There isn’t that luxury on draft day, as scouts will be working through the weekend to put their final reports on these players.

1. Zack Cox – University of Arkansas

One study that still needs to be done: how patience translates from college baseball to pro baseball, and more specifically, when it does not. I say this here because it seems to me that patience is more important in the development of Cox more than most players. There really isn’t a skill that Cox has shown consistently in two years: as a freshman, he was a swing-and-miss power third baseman. As a sophomore, he was a contact-ready, Dustin Ackley-like second baseman. In fact, how about a comparison of their sophomore seasons:

Ackley – 278 AB, 32 XBH, .417/.503/.597
Z. Cox – 213 AB, 20 XBH, .432/.516/.606

Very similar, but because he’s not consistent, and he’s not quick, Cox isn’t talked about in the same breath as Ackley. Instead, he’s a bit more befuddling. However, if we know that he’s a plus patience guy, like his numbers sort of suggest, then all you really need to project is either the hit tool or the power tool. However, if his patience erodes in pro ball, he’ll need both tools, and I wouldn’t be as confident. For what it’s worth: everything you hear about the hit tool suggests it’s going to play in pro ball. Perhaps speed is all that separates Ackley and Cox, after all.

2. Josh Sale – Bishop Blanchet HS (Wash.)

Sale is something of a familiar commodity in the first round: the slugger from a non-traditional baseball state. It seemed like, at least in my head, like we had one of those every year. So I went back through the logs, and noted every high school player drafted from bad weather states. Here’s the list:

2009 – Mike Trout (NJ)
2008 – Brett Lawrie (Canada)
2007 – Devin Mesoraco (PA), Jon Gilmore (IA)
2006 – Billy Rowell (NJ), Travis Snider (WA), Preston Mattingly (IN)
2004 – Neil Walker (PA), Blake Dewitt (MO)
2003 – Chris Lubanski (PA), Eric Duncan (NJ)
2001 – Joe Mauer (MN)
2000 – Rocco Baldelli (RI), Corey Smith (NJ), Scott Thorman (Canada), Aaron Herr (PA)

Even there, you can see that New Jersey and Pennsylvania are fairly standard pipelines to the first round. Sale is sometimes compared to Snider, but it’s a comparison born of laziness — his bat isn’t as polished, his body not as thick as Snider’s was in 2006. If I was going to reach for any comparison on the above list it might be Eric Duncan, although I can’t speak to whether Sale will swing-and-miss at such a rapid pace. It does sound like the power is going to play, however.

And unlike Duncan, and more like Manny Ramirez, Sale will probably not see the third base bag much in the minors. He’s been groomed to play right field, although no one seems to think he’ll be “plus” at the position. Since the difference between the positional adjustments is 10 runs, I might at least have Sale work with my infield instructors in short-season ball, and see if he could play there. After all, a minus-ten defender at third base is going to produce more WAR than a minus-five defender in right, all else being equal.

3. Kolbrin Vitek – Ball State University

I’m going to start with the defense. It sounds like scouts can’t make up their mind about Vitek’s defense, but if this makes sense, they already know his positional adjustment: +2.5. There is a chance he will play all 3 positions that are +2.5 as a professional: second, third and center field. And while the indecisions on his defense suggest maybe he doesn’t have a good glove — the boys at College Splits have numbers that suggest differently. Here’s what they sent me:

2009 (at 3B): +1
2010 (at 2B): +1

As an offensive player, there is little to pick apart. Forty extra-base hits, a good base stealer, a 33/36 walk-to-strikeout ratio in about 275 plate appearances. I think there is probably convincing that needs to be done about facing better quality players in bigger ballparks with wooden bats, but if he actually is a plus defender at a premium position, the climb isn’t so uphill.

Honorable Mention

Jedd Gyorko is painted as a sort of poor man’s Vitek, as he’s not as athletic, and even more questionable a defender. But his numbers are better than Vitek’s across the board. If you think he works at second, he’s worth a pick … Kaleb Cowart looks like he’ll be drafted in sort of the Casey Kelly mold, as a lot of teams still haven’t decided if he’s a hitter or a pitcher. The difference is that Cowart seems to have some pop in his bat, and his pitching won’t come as polished … I spoke with Tulane 3B Rob Segedin’s coach from last summer in the Cape Cod League, long time Bourne manager Harvey Shapiro, and he said, “Rob reminds me of Kevin Youkilis. Good baseball player. Comes to the ballpark with a smile on his face, he just loves to play. He’s a gap hitter, hits for doubles, doesn’t strike out that much. He’s an outstanding hitter.” Here’s how both players did in their final season:

Youkilis – 210 AB, 27 XBH, 59 BB, 21 K, .405/.549/.714
Segedin – 212 AB, 45 XBH, 33 BB, 20 K, .434/.516/.788

Before there was Steven Strasburg, unstoppable pitching cyborg or Bryce Harper, then-16-year-old Sports Illustrated cover boy, there was Matt Wieters. A switch-hitting, power-hitting force with enough athleticism in his 6-5, 230 pound frame to remain behind the dish, Wieters was selected out of Georgia Tech with the fifth pick in the 2007 amateur draft.

At the time, Baseball America said that Wieters could eventually “post averages near .280 with 30-homer potential in the big leagues,” and that despite his stature, he possessed “soft hands, good footwork and well-above-average arm strength, as evidenced by the 96 mph heat he has shown from the mound.” The $6 million man proceeded to terrorize minor league pitchers, batting a combined .343/.438/.576 at the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels. He also rated well defensively, according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone numbers.

Called up to the majors late last May, Wieters went on to post a .288/.340/.412 line in 385 plate appearances. That might not look off-the-charts good, but a .330 wOBA from a 23-year-old catcher, in the AL East, is extremely impressive. In four months of playing time, Wieters racked up 1.6 WAR. Heading into 2010, CHONE projected Wieters to rake to the tune of .289/.355/.460 (.356 wOBA), adding a couple of runs in defensive value while compiling 3.9 WAR. That’s the sort of production worthy of a Chuck Norris-style facts page (did you know Scott Boras hired Matt Wieters as his agent?)

Instead of building upon his successful rookie campaign, Wieters has stumbled somewhat over the first two months of the 2010 season. In 194 trips to the plate, he’s hitting .240/.314/.337, with a .290 wOBA. He’s holding his own defensively, rating as slightly above-average in controlling the running game after being a couple runs below average last season, but Wieters’ 0.5 WAR falls well short of his lofty preseason forecast.

Part of Wieters’ mild offensive showing can be explained by a .292 batting average on balls in play, down from last season’s .356 mark. His expected BABIP, based on his rate of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, is .324. Still, Wieters’ current plate approach isn’t conducive to putting up robust numbers with the lumber.

While Wieters’ walk rate has increased from 7.3 percent in ’09 to 9.3 percent this year, his plate discipline hasn’t been as sharp. At first glance, it looks like he has become more selective — Wieters swung at 47.2 percent of pitches in 2009, but just 43.1 percent in 2010. But, it’s the type of pitches that he’s going after that’s concerning. In ’09, Wieters chased 25.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. This year, he’s hacking at 29.7 percent of out-of-zone pitches. He took a cut at 70.2 percent of in-zone offerings in ’09, but just 59.2 percent in 2010.

The MLB averages for O-Swing and Z-Swing differ between the two years, but even as a percentage of the league average, Wieters is swinging at more would-be balls and keeping the bat on the shoulder against more strikes:

Chasing more junk pitches and watching more in-zone pitches go by isn’t a recipe for offensive success. Wieters’ first pitch strike percentage, 53 last season, has climbed to 63.9 percent in 2010 (58 percent MLB average). He hit a ground ball 41.9 percent in ’09, but he’s chopping the ball into the grass 49.3 percent in 2010. That’s obviously not going to help in the power department, and Wieters’ ISO has dipped from .124 to .097.

All of this sounds pessimistic, but it’s important to remember that Wieters just turned 24 at the end of May. He thrashed minor league pitching, earning glowing scouting reports. He was a league-average hitter as a rookie playing the most physically taxing position on the field, in the game’s most competitive environment. Wieters’ rest-of-season ZiPS projection calls for a .275/.342/.413 triple-slash, with a .336 wOBA. Many teams would be thrilled to get that sort of production out of a competent defensive catcher. While he must hone his strike zone control, there’s still plenty of time for Wieters to reach those star-level expectations.