Greg Dobbs was designated for assignment today. Let’s take a look at him.

Dobbs broke into the majors in 2005 as a 25-year-old with the Seattle Mariners, he’d eventually find his way to Philadelphia and in 2007 he received enough playing him time to hit 10 homers with a .335 wOBA in more than 350 plate appearances. The next year he’d be restricted to mostly pinch hitting, a role he’s since been confined to, and he’d post a .354 wOBA with nine homers. Generally speaking, you don’t expect a player to hit more home runs the less time he sees, but Dobbs did that. In 2009 everything seemed to fall apart and in 2010 he’s got a higher on-base percentage (.222) than wOBA (.218) in 73 plate appearances.

Of his 1,078 career plate appearances, 261 are of the pinch hit variety. That’s about a quarter of the time that Dobbs went to the plate he was in a role where offensive performance is expected to decrease by something like 10%. Suffice to say, Dobbs’ raw numbers (.312 wOBA) would be understandable if they sold him a little below his true talent level based on poor inch hitting numbers. Oddly, though, Dobbs had a slash line as a pinch hitter of .251/.314/.413 for his career; almost equal to his starter slash line of .269/.311/.418.

ZiPS has him hitting less than league average (.319 wOBA) which is really all that matters with Dobbs because defensively he’s a sub-par third baseman without much playing time elsewhere. Weak beat, weak glove, will travel isn’t the most attractive classified ad, but it’s the one Dobbs will submit while on the waiver wire. Odds are, he’s heading to Triple-A, but some team might fall in love with his 2008 and give him a shot.

Unfortunate news out of Toronto today as Blue Jays pitcher Dustin McGowan has injured his shoulder once again. McGowan heard a pop in his shoulder while throwing at the team’s spring facility in Dunedin, FL. McGowan will certainly miss the remainder of the 2010 season due to what will be the second surgery on the labrum in his right shoulder. It seems possible, if not likely, that McGowan will also miss the entire 2011 season as well.

In 2007, the Toronto Blue Jays starting pitchers put together a combined 20.7 wins above replacement. Dustin McGowan and his 3.9 WAR was a large piece of that group; between him, Roy Halladay, and A.J. Burnett, the Blue Jays appeared to have the core of what could be a top-flight starting rotation for years to come. However, it wouldn’t last past 2008. McGowan’s first shoulder surgery came during the ’08 season, and Burnett left for the Yankees that offseason. Of the five starters for the Jays in 2009, only Roy Halladay also pitched in 2007, and he would be traded to the Phillies after the season.

Still, the Jays have some solid starting pitchers on their roster now, including Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Cecil, all of whom have at least 1.4 WAR on the season already. GM Alex Anthopolous and the Blue Jays hoped that McGowan would be able to return by May or June and give that rotation a boost – given the Jays’ hot start, McGowan’s addition would’ve been a sizable help in remaining in the playoff race.

Now, it seems that McGowan may go as many as three seasons between MLB appearances. The nearest analog for this situation appears to be Brewers pitcher Chris Capuano, who went from 2007 until 2010 without appearing in a game after two Tommy John surgeries, but he’s only thrown 4.2 innings for the Brewers this season.

The road back will be long and difficult for McGowan, and there’s no guarantee that he will be anywhere near the same pitcher upon his return. This is a large setback for the Jays organization, as McGowan appeared to be turning himself into one of the more reliable starters in the league back in 2008, and now his season and possibly his career is over.

Today, Ken Rosenthal wrote about a conversation he had with Frank Robinson, who has been tasked by Bud Selig with trying to get a few teams to shorten the length of their games. As Rosenthal notes, MLB has been trying to do this for years, and with no success. They send memos, they ask nicely, umpires complain to the media, and none of it matters.

And yet, somehow, they continue to miss the obvious – they cannot make the games shorter unless they reduce offensive levels. It is a simple fact that run scoring is the main driver of the length of a baseball game. You will never go to a 13-10 slugfest that moves at a brisk pace. The only way for games to end is for 51 or or more outs to be recorded, and every time a batter reaches base safely, he’s extended the time of game without contributing towards its finish.

Yes, the Yankees and Red Sox games always take longer than everyone else. Guess what? The Red Sox score more runs than any other team in baseball, and the Yankees are right behind them. This shouldn’t be any kind of surprise to Robinson, or anyone else in Major League Baseball.

The Yankees and Red Sox have something else in common, of course – an offensive philosophy that values selective hitters. Boston’s hitters see 4.07 pitchers per plate appearance, most in baseball. With hitters like J.D. Drew, Kevin Youkilis, and David Ortiz, the Red Sox have built an offense that was designed to make pitchers work. The Yankees do the same, always loading their line-up with high walk, high power guys who don’t swing very often.

This style of baseball is naturally going to take longer than the Royals or Giants swing-at-anything approach. Guess what, Mr. Robinson? You can’t issue a memo that orders Nick Swisher to swing at pitches out of the strike zone.

If you want Boston and New York (as well as the rest of the league) to play quicker games, you have one option, and one option only – make the strike zone bigger. Over the years, it has steadily shrunk, especially on the high side, where nothing over the belt is a strike anymore. The shrinking strike zone has allowed selective hitters to keep the bat on their shoulders until they get a pitch they can drive, and no amount of complaining about it is going to make them adopt a less effective approach to scoring runs.

Nothing else they do will matter. The only way to shorten a Major League game is to make the strike zone bigger. Until they decide to do that, the rest of this is just posturing.

Not afraid to make controversial moves (see Roy Halladay), the Blue Jays’ rookie General Manager Alex Anthopoulos designated struggling third baseman Edwin Encarnacion for assignment on Sunday.

The 27-year-old former Red – who was acquired last season in the Scott Rolen trade that also netted Toronto a pitching prospect by the name of Zach Stewart – was hitting just .200/.298/.467 in 141 at-bats in 2010. Encarnacion missed much of April due to injuries and never did get on track. He made some headlines in May, though, when he went on a homer binge with six of his nine hits in the month going over the fence.

Like much of the Toronto lineup, Encarnacion got into a bad habit of swinging for the home run in each at-bat, even if the situation warranted a different approach. Hopefully his time in the minors will remind him of the importance of hitting the ball hard but not trying to do too much. It’s possible – but highly unlikely – that the third baseman’s contract will be claimed on waivers. In reality, he and his $4.75 contact will make their way to triple-A Las Vegas. After the season, Encarnacion will be arbitration eligible with close to five years of Major League service under his belt. He is not expected back in Toronto for 2011.

This might actually be a good time for the cement-gloved Encarnacion – affectionately dubbed E5 by the home crowd – to be introduced to right field. A position switch could make him a more valuable commodity during the late-July trade deadline (at which time Toronto would have to eat most, if not all, Encarnacion’s contract to receive even a B- or C-level prospect in return). He’s by no means a lost cause; he is still young and has a career line of .257/.339/.449 and a .344 wOBA in 2,322 MLB at-bats. With a new position, he could see a real boost in his WAR – especially if he hits like he did between 2006-08.

In his place, the Jays recalled 27-year-old Jarrett Hoffpauir, who was acquired off waivers this past off-season from the Cardinals organization. Mostly a second baseman in the minors, he’s also seen some time at third base this season… with mixed results on defense. At the plate, though, Hoffpauir has taken full advantage of the potent hitting environment and he has a triple-A slash line of .328/.378/.532 in 235 at-bats. The power output is a side effect of his league, but Hoffpauir has always hit for a solid average and quite often walks more than he strikes out. His offensive menu is much more appetizing at second, but the homer-happy club can afford his lack of power at the traditionally pop-tastic hot corner.

The former sixth round draft pick out of Southern Mississippi (2004) deserves a prolonged shot in the Majors, as he only had a brief cup of coffee with the Cardinals in ’09. It was Hoffpauir whom I expected to see when bench player Mike McCoy was optioned to triple-A last week… only to find out the Jays replaced the far-more-versatile player with… Nick Green (career .288 wOBA). Current triple-A infielder Brad Emaus, recently promoted from double-A to triple-A, could be the club’s third baseman of the future. He’s not a big-bopper, either, and profiles as a Scott Spiezio-type infielder. Emaus, 24, is currently hitting .292/.402/.467 in 195 at-bats.

It remains to be seen what Manager Cito Gaston will do with Hoffpauir and exactly how much time he’ll see at third base. It’s possible that Gaston will favor John McDonald (career .265 wOBA) for his defense at third. It’s also possible that Jose Bautista will shift from right field to third base for the majority of the time with another recent addition, Dewayne Wise (.278 wOBA) receiving significant time in right field until Travis Snider returns after the All-Star Break. If that’s the plan, though, it would have made more sense to keep infielder-outfielder McCoy over Green.

Truth be told, I’ve given up trying to understand Gaston’s moves.

To date, Jay Bruce hasn’t lived up to the hype that comes with being the No. 1 prospect in baseball. He’s made progress for sure, and it shows in his 2009 numbers. His OBP sits at .345, far above his .318 career average. This shows up in his wOBA, which is 20 points higher than last year, and he’s only 103 PA behind the 387 he accumulated last year. There’s still time for Bruce to turn this into a breakout season, and given improvement in one aspect of his game, we just might see it.

When Baseball America named Bruce the No. 1 overall prospect in 2008, they said that he “has few faults.” Given his 2007 performance, it’s easy to understand why they’d say that. He clobbered the Florida State League before a brief stint of dominance in the AA Southern League. The Reds moved him to AAA to cover for an injury, but he hit so well that they kept him there. In 204 PA, he racked up 57 hits, including 25 for extra bases. Baseball America said it, though they didn’t really need to: Bruce was ready for the bigs in 2008, at age 21.

Bruce had held his own during his two previous minor league seasons, 2005 playing in the rookie league and 2006 in the class-A Midwest League. One factor that held him back was his performance against lefties. During his debut in 2005 he displayed a distinct split, a .874 OPS against righties and a .719 mark against lefties. In the Midwest League he displayed a similar split, .932 against righties and .790 against lefties. The biggest difference was that he faced lefties in only 21 percent of his PA that year.

We know that splits, especially of the platoon variety, can display plenty of noise to go with the signal, especially in small samples. This effect can be amplified for young players who are still getting used to the rigors of a full baseball season. Bruce showed in 2007 that maybe hitting lefties wouldn’t be a problem. He faced a lefty 30 percent of the time that year and posted a .919 OPS, against a .992 vs. righties. That was, of course, a pretty small sample itself, just 177 PA, but it also showed that his splits from 05 and 06 weren’t necessarily indicative of his skill.

Yet, when he showed up in the majors, he certainly displayed that platoon split. Pick a number and it was probably poor against lefties: a .190 BA, a .263 OBP, a .109 ISO, a .255 wOBA, -9.2 wRAA. He also struck out in 33.6 percent of his at-bats against them. In 2009 he improved in some aspects, but he was still a far below average hitter against lefties, a mere 73 wRC+. He had lowered his overall strikeout rate against lefties but still whiffed against them far more than against righties. He still didn’t hit them for power, a .120 ISO. The only positive was that he started walking against them and had a .313 OBP, while he had a .299 mark against righties.

While, as Jack noted in Bruce’s The Year Ahead section, his low BABIP was a concern coming into 2010, his platoon splits also had to be something of a concern. It’s certainly something that a young player can correct — the record books are full of lefties who struggled against same-handed pitchers only to turn things around as they matured. This year Bruce has started showing signs of such a turnaround. The most notable improvement comes in his power, a .157 ISO on the strength of three homers and four doubles in 83 AB. But he’s made progress in other areas, as well.

Check out the following platoon split graphs. These are just his AVG, BABIP, and ISO, but you can see see his whole platoon graph page and see a similar effect. Many of the graphs start with the blue (lefty) and red (righty) dots decently far apart. In every case they’re much closer together this year.

We are, of course, dealing with volatile samples, both for this season and for Bruce’s career. It would not be surprising, however, to see a 23-year-old start to improve certain aspects of his game, including his performance against same-handed pitchers. If what we’re seeing is a true improvement and not an ephemeral trend disguised as a small sample, we could see a turnaround from Bruce as soon as this year.

His BABIP is up to .324. His line drive rate is up to 21.7 percent. He’s slumped a bit in June, hitting .227 and walking just seven times, but even then he has seven homers, two doubles, and a triple, giving him a .228 ISO, an improvement on his first two months. Things could be coming together for Jay Bruce. If he puts it all together this year and breaks out in the second half, it could be just what the Reds need to keep up their pace in the NL Central.

In the beginning of May, I analyzed David Price’s increased reliance on his curveball, saying:

The new curve’s main function right now is to make hitters uncomfortable and off balance (as well as change their eye levels) for when Price gears back and throws a ninety-five fastball; however, if Price can command the bite on the pitch enough to begin fooling righties to chase it, it can become another serious weapon in his arsenal.

On the season, Price’s curveball, which he’s thrown 17.7% of the time (after 3.7% last season), has been worth 1.8 runs above average according to our Pitch Type Values, helping Price put up a 3.84 FIP on the year as well as a 3.83 tERA. Since I went back and looked at each of Price’s starts last time, I’d like to take a look since then, chronicling how many were strikes out of how many thrown, as well as his average Vertical Break and Linear Weights (with negative being better for Price):

5/12: 19/28, -7.8, 1.036
5/18: 14/20, -7.81, -1.2405
5/23: 4/9, -7.50, -1.163
5/28: 5/15, -8.04, 0.7454
6/2: 13/20, -5.79, .0101
6/9: 6/10, -7.15, -1.2838
6/15: 16/27, -6.72, -.24

While Price has been less consistent in how often he throws the curveball compared to the first part of the season, he’s throwing it for strikes as well as getting more negative/low Linear Weights. He’s also lowered the standard deviation of his V-Break, leading me to believe that he’s beginning to find his feel for the pitch a bit better (for the difference between “break” and “movement,” see our own Dave Allen here). To take a closer look at vertical break, here are Barry Zito’s V-Breaks over the past few starts:

6/18: -11.99
6/12: -9.24
6/7: -11.04
6/1: -9.91
5/27: -10.28
5/22: -13.05

One would think that Barry Zito, who has one of the most famous curves in the game, would throw his curveball with more consistent break (not that these numbers aren’t similar, but the difference between starts seems large enough – given how often Zito throws his curve – to be somewhat suspicious). But pitchers have to change the movement and break on their pitches all the time, as hitters can adjust easily when the pitch moves/breaks consistently. As PITCHf/x analyst Jeremy Greenhouse once commented, “…average pitch movements often have positive run values, presumably because the batter is adjusted to them. In other words, below average movement is often better than average movement.” I think the same may go for break, along with the fact that even a consistently breaking curve will never be precisely the same each time thrown. So although Price is still getting various V-Breaks from start to start, don’t be concerned. However, in his six starts from the start of the season to May 7th, he ranged from -4.36 to -8.07. A range that large may not be as much of an asset, but mixing up the movements within a decently wide range of about ~2 inches, which is what he has done since, may be very helpful for Price.

This analysis isn’t complete, and sometimes the numbers can lead us to faulty conclusions, as Mike Fast showed us in an excellent piece last week. However, the continued use and relative consistency in success of Price’s curveball have contributed to his solid season thus far.

Thanks to Brooks Baseball for supplementing our data.

When people talk about the starting pitchers that will be available for trade over the next month, the same names always come up – Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Ben Sheets, and Jake Westbrook lead most of the discussions. I would like to throw another name into the mix, however, and suggest that the best value purchase for a team looking to add a middle of the rotation starter for a few months might be Kevin Millwood.

Yes, the same Kevin Millwood who currently owns a 5.12 ERA for the Orioles and is due about $5 million for the rest of 2010.  Due to the money he’s owed, the runs he has allowed and the generally average stuff he throws, Millwood is not going to be highly sought after. But he has pitched pretty well this year, and is quite reminiscent of a pitcher in a similar position a year ago: Carl Pavano.

Like Millwood, teams weren’t beating down the door for Pavano a year ago, despite a good walk rate and solid strikeout rate. Pavano’s BABIP was .330 when the Indians finally traded him to the Twins, albeit with a 5.34 ERA standing beside a solid 3.94 xFIP. Because of the disparity, Pavano was able to sneak through waivers and be traded after the July 31st deadline, and the Twins merely surrendered a PTBNL to get him. Pavano then pitched well for the Twins down the stretch and in the post-season, and has continued his success for the Twins in 2010.

Millwood’s xFIP currently stands at 4.17, a number inflated a bit from the division in which he plays. Four of his starts have come against the Yankees and Red Sox, and in those games, he has walked 16 and struck out 18. In his other 11 starts, he has walked 13 and struck out 60. Yes, those games still count, but if he pitched in a less demanding division, his over all numbers would be quite a bit better, and he would be attracting more attention.

Unless Millwood really turns it on over the next month, he’s unlikely to command much of a return from the team that acquires him. Don’t be surprised if his results magically improve once he flees Baltimore- the BABIP and HR/FB numbers are bound to regress, and getting him away from the AL East can only help.

For a team that doesn’t want to pay a premium price to acquire pitching help, Millwood may be the best bet.

A year and a half ago, Carl Pavano was baseball’s biggest punch line. Formerly a prized Red Sox prospect, Pavano was traded to Montreal in 1997 as part of a package for Pedro Martinez. He overcame early arm troubles that DL’d him three times from 1999 to 2001 to establish himself with the Marlins, whom he was traded to in July of 2002. Topping 200 innings in both 2003 and 2004, Pavano averaged 5.78 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, a 4.03 xFIP and 3.9 WAR a season. After the ’04 campaign, the Yankees came to terms with Pavano on a four-year, $39.95 million deal that will live in infamy.

Shoulder tendinitis. Bruised buttocks. Fractured ribs, suffered in a car accident and allegedly hidden from the club for a time. Tommy John surgery. Pavano threw all of 145.2 innings for the Bombers, contributing just 1.1 WAR while drawing the ire of fans and becoming tabloid fodder. When Pavano signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Indians in January of 2009, with $5.3 million in performance bonuses, most snickered and wondered if he’d strain something while putting his John Hancock on the contract.

In Cleveland, something peculiar occurred: Pavano pitched as if the preceding four years never happened, morphing back into the strike-throwing machine who earned praise with the Marlins. His ERA with the Tribe (5.37) was ugly, but his xFIP (3.94) suggested he was performing as well as ever. Pavano continued his revival in Minnesota (3.99 xFIP) following an August trade. Overall, he had 6.64 K/9, 1.76 BB/9 and 3.7 WAR in 199.1 innings, with a big discrepancy between his ERA (5.10) and xFIP (3.96) due to a .335 batting average on balls in play and a low rate of stranding base runners (66.1 percent).

Pavano accepted arbitration this past off-season, and he’s earning $7 million in 2010. He’s well on his way to justifying that salary — with 1.5 WAR in 96.1 frames, the mustachioed 34-year-old has provided the Twins with about $6 million in value already. Pavano’s not missing as many bats this season (5.14 K/9), but he’s being even stingier with the walks (1.31 BB/9) and has increased his ground ball rate slightly (45.9% this year, 43.4% in ’09). His xFIP (4.03) is essentially the same as last season, though his ERA (3.64) is dramatically lower thanks to a .267 BABIP and a 73.4 percent strand rate.

Utilizing an 89-90 MPH fastball, a low-80’s slider and a low-80’s changeup, Pavano gets ahead in the count like few others — his first pitch strike percentage was 67.7 last year, and comes in at 66.2 percent in 2010 (the MLB average is about 58 percent). Among qualified MLB starters, only Cliff Lee, Carlos Silva, Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay have a higher F-Strike% this season.

And, hitters have a tough time laying off his stuff off the plate. Pavano garnered swings on pitches outside of the strike zone 32.3 percent in 2009 (25.1 percent MLB average) and 36.4 percent this season (28.3 percent MLB average). The 2010 mark is tops among big league starters.

If Pavano reaches his modest rest-of-season ZiPS projection (a 4.30 FIP in just 77 innings), he would finish the year with around 2.5 WAR and would end up being a bargain for the Twins. Should he approach last year’s innings total with a FIP closer to his current level, he would again top the three win mark. After years of DL stints and derision from fans and analysts, Pavano is back to being a quality rotation cog on a playoff-caliber team.

I think it’s safe to say that budding star Justin Upton stole the show last night in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ game against the New York Yankees. Upton slugged two home runs and added a single, a walk, and a hit by pitch in his other three plate appearances. On the bases, Upton managed to steal second as well. It was a big game by any standard – four runs scored and four RBIs for your fantasy teams as well as a 4.29 RE24 and a rather modest .124 WPA due to the Diamondbacks building an early lead on AJ Burnett and the Yankees.

As this article is written, before the nightly stats update, Upton has compiled 1.3 WAR and is on pace for roughly 2.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances – a decent season, but slightly disappointing given his 4.8 WAR season last year. Tonight’s production, however, adds rougly 4.2 runs of value for Upton – 1.4 per home run, 0.5 for the single, 0.35 for each the BB and HBP, and 0.2 for the SB. The effort should, if I’ve calculated it correctly, push Upton’s WAR for the season up to 1.7, which would mean that Upton would now be on pace for a roughly 3.5 WAR season.

Last night’s efforts were worth nearly two million dollars and pushed Upton’s pro-rated value for the season up by four million dollars. The boost in production shows us two things – pro-rated statistics can undergo massive day-to-day fluctuation, and one player can be extremely massive in the course of only five plate appearances. Of the 1008 position players to play in the MLB this season, only 215 have accrued more than 4.2 runs of value this whole season. Upton’s 4.2 runs last night puts him in the same class as the seasons to date of Andruw Jones, Julio Borbon, and Luis Castillo.

Even though Justin Upton isn’t performing quite at the level I expected him to this year, nights like this are why I still believe he will be a superstar in this league. The Arizona Diamondbacks and their fanbase certainly hope to see more days like this out of the stupendously talented young man, and I, for one, don’t think they will be disappointed.

Tonight’s array of games might best be described as “dizzying” — or, if not “dizzying,” then “wicked dizzying.”

Seriously, the five games below (analyzed in depth via the wonder of bullet point) are only the tip of the NERD iceberg, and completely omit tonight’s highly anticipated showdown between Scott Baker and Chris Narveson. Ya heard!

(Totally infallible NERD scores in parentheses.)

Jaime Garcia (8) at Brett Cecil (7), 7:07pm ET
• Startling fact: Between them, Garcia and Cecil are younger than Jamie Moyer.
• Likely occurrence: Jose Bautista hits an a-million-foot home run.
• Word of warning: The Rogers Centre, or whatever you wanna call it, is un peu de sad and depressing — on TV, in person, whatever.

Justin Verlander (8) at Jonathon Niese (6), 7:10pm ET
• Not-that-startling-but-still-true fact: Justin Verlander throws his fastball at an average of 95.8 mph.
• Additionally: He often follows it up with a curveball best described as “stoopit.”
• In conclusion: It’s a little bit mystifying that he’s only running an 8.2% swinging-strike rate. Not that I’m complaining.

Tim Lincecum (10) at Roy Oswalt (9), 8:05pm ET
• Direct quote: “Hi, my name’s Tim Lincecum. I have kinda a dumb haircut. But also, guess what? I’m about to throw you my changeup and you’re going to (a) swing at and (b) miss it.”
• Other direct quote: “Hi, my name’s Roy Oswalt. You may have forgotten about me, on account of I play on a team that blows. But guess what? I’m averaging more strikeouts per nine innings (8.68) than I have at any other point in my career, save my very first season in the majors, 2001, when I also threw a whole bunch of relief innings.”
• Jason Castro and Chris Johnson are the closest things the Astros have to bone fide prospects. They’re also very likely to play tonight.

Jon Lester (8) at Jhoulys Chacin (7), 8:40pm ET
• Some people — including resident philosicator Matt Klaassen — have suggested that lefties deserve a velocity adjustment of sorts for NERD. Like, lefties should get 3 mph added to their fastballs, or something. In fact, Lester already has one of the league’s fastest fastpieces
• Startling fact: The Red Sox are only a game out of first place. Say wha-?
• Shocking discovery: Ryan Spilborghs is not related to a certain, incredibly famous Hollywood director.

Andy Pettitte (5) at Dan Haren (9), 9:40pm ET
• Dan Haren might be the single most interesting fantasy trade target right now, given how far his ERA (4.71) is above his xFIP (3.43). His BABIP and HR/FB are way higher than in previous years. His LOB% is way lower. Carpe the diem outta that crap, is what I’m saying.
• Cole Gillespie will probably start in left for Arizona. He’s youngish and worth a damn.
• Adam LaRoche. What? I like Adam LaRoche. So sue me. (Actually, on second thought, maybe don’t sue me. That’s not gonna work out well for anybody.)